College Football Week 4 (And a look ahead to Week 5)

Over the last week College Football was less defined by what happened on the field, outside of Michigan's upset of USC it was a fairly benign week, than it was what happened OFF the field.

Realignment: News that 4 schools would be defecting from the Mountain West Conference to head for the PAC was a head-scratcher to some. For one, there's little evidence to suggest that membership in a shrunken, G6 version of the PAC will be any more than even with the MWC. For another, what we're left with now are smaller conferences battling to get to 8. Both the PAC and the MWC now are in desperate need of teams. Both are looking at Texas State, among others. I don't see 8 team conferences being viable for the small schools.  But egos get in the way which is preventing a merger and expansion.  a 16-team Mountain Pacific Conference seems much more viable long-term to me than do two 8-team conferences hoping for table scraps.

NIL: The first issues with the current NIL system reared their ugly heads when UNLV QB Paul Sluka became the first athlete to shut it down for the season, declare his intent to red-shirt and transfer due to not making the type of money he states he was promised. Of course, there are two sides to this story with Sluka claiming he was promised $100,000 while only receiving $3,000 while the University states that after wins over Illinois and Kansas Sluka came to the coaches and demanded more cash.  Since all of this was supposedly a "verbal agreement" it's nothing more than a he said/he said issue now and we'll probably never know the truth. Also, there is a USC Defensive End that's decided to redshirt and transfer as well as the 4th string RB for UNLV. Both of those appear to be related to playing time rather than money however.  Still, until a workable framework is decided upon we might start viewing Week 4 as "shut it down" week as players are only allowed to play in 4 games before losing their opportunity to redshirt.

It's a mess and I'm not sure the NCAA can fix it. My feeling is still that the P4 programs, or the BIG and the SEC are ultimately going to form their own league that closely resembles NFL Lite. This will effectively destroy college football as we know it, but I also predict it will be immensely profitable, and popular.

Looking ahead to week 5 the biggest story might be Hurricane Helene. She's currently barreling toward Florida and could impact the Southeast and Midwest greatly. For everyone in their path, hunker down and good luck.

As for the betting, I've got some plays that I really like but none of those lines are still available, and I don't like where they sit currently so I'm just going to say good luck wherever you are sitting.

College Football Week 3 (And a look-ahead to Week 4)

Well, well, well.

Coach Sark and the Longhorns are the new number one team in all the land while Georgia, who struggled mightily against a live Kentucky underdog, slips to number 2. Tennessee is being overhyped as a strong contender despite not playing much of anyone and Florida State is still struggling and desperately looking for their first win.

Meanwhile, UNLV continues it's improbable winning streak now boasting a win over 2 Big XII teams, with a beatable Syracuse of the ACC still on the horizon and Colorado actually looked competent against the Rams of Colorado State.

On the betting front, I had something happen last week that has not happened in a while. I went 5-0 for the week raising my season bet tally to 12-3. Of course this happens when I abandon the weekly five. Whatever, I'm winning and I'm up 10.4 units so I'm happy.

About the Longhorns. I've said before that top 25 rankings at this point in the season are brunch for the debate shows. That's it, that's all they are.  Sure, some schools can make them into some milestones (for example, UNLV being ranked 25 in the Coaches Poll is the first time the school has been ranked in it's history) but for the most part they're just to allow the screaming heads an opportunity to scream at each other. Is Texas the number 1 team in all the land? Well, we probably still don't know. They have looked the most impressive on a week to week  basis so far, but outside of Michigan (who I still don't think is any good this year) they haven't exactly played a murderer's row of opponents.  Let's let some more games play out before we say that "Texas is back baby". They might be, but we've seen this happen early in the season before only to realize that they're not. I still am keeping the Bulldogs number 1 in my power rankings but Texas is gaining ground.

Looking ahead. If you're going to be partially distracted on Saturday this week seems to be a prime time to do so. There are not any games that I look at which make my teeth sweat with anticipation. That being said sometimes weeks that don't look too strong on paper tend to provide some of the better games of the season. In the early window I think Houston @ Cincinnati has potential, as does Kansas @ West Virginia. The 2nd window feels a little sparse but Utah @ Oklahoma State has some serious potential as a defensive gem and TCU @ SMU could be a rivalry sizzler (see what I did there?)

From a betting perspective I have another five teams that my numbers REALLY like. 

Kansas (+111) to pull the mild ML upset over West Virginia.

Central Michigan (-6.5) to win big over Ball State.

California (+106) to win over poor Florida State

Utah @ Oklahoma State (u51.5) to be a defensive battle (even IF Cam Rising plays)

NC State (+20.5) @ Clemson to keep it close against a Clemson offense that is not good.

As the usual caveat, I took most of these bets on either Sunday or Monday when the lines opened, so you might not be able to get the numbers above if you tried.  But I'm happy with what I have.

Finally, for those of you who don't know, probably because you're not following me on X, Mrs. TPM and I are doing the Great College Football Country Cooking Challenge this year.  The rules are simple: Mrs. TPM picks a country off of the big-assed map that we have on our living room wall.  My job is to create a (gluten-free, because Mrs. TPM is Celiac) menu based on dishes from that country, or inspired by their cuisine. So far, we've done the following:

1. Italy - Italian sausage/pesto flatbreads, charcuterie plate and pasta with marinara sauce.

2. Texas (because it's a country y'all) - Jalapeno poppers, smoked Spare Ribs and BBQ sides.

3. Mexico - Queso Blanco and Chorizo tacos with Mexican rice and beans.

This week she's chosen Cuba.

My menu is going to be gluten-free Cuban sandwiches and Ropa Viejas with rice for dinner. My struggle is, obviously, the Cuban sandwiches because there's really no gluten-free Cuban roll.  So I'm going to have to figure that one out.

Good luck to you this weekend no matter who you root for.

Quick Thoughts (Wednesday, September 18th)

Items that I found interesting, not worthy of a full blog post, but needing more comment then a quick quip on a news round-up.

1. Texas Media is dead. All they're doing now is whistling past the grave yard.

The myth of the media has been well crafted over the years but has never really been what they've puffed themselves up to be. The media has NEVER been honest, objective reporters of the truth as they have romanticized themselves to be. Instead, they've always had an agenda and they've pushed that agenda relentlessly. This is NOT about "Liberal bias". Instead it's about a POV that every media outlet prescribes to and promotes, both progressive and MAGA. American journalism has a long history of making up facts to meet the narrative. From the trumped up "mafia crime wave" back in the 50's to global cooling to the AIDS crisis (Not that AIDS wasn't a crisis for those who had it, but unless you engaged in some specific activities you were relatively safe See Also: MPox or MonkeyPox.) The difference now is that certain media outlets just come out and admit that they have a POV and are actively working to skew their reporting toward it. The Houston Chronicle famously did this with their infamous "pro-rail memo" back in the aughts, while Texas Tribune has been an advocacy group since their inception.  Now Houston Landing has come out and just admitted that they are going to ramp up their advocacy for things they like, rather than just reporting the news as-is.  Sad times indeed.  But it's time to stop buying the "unbiased, crusading media line and view them for what they are: advocacy groups with an agenda to push.  Then, when you consume their product, view it through the proper lens.

2. Harris County is devolving into a festering pit.

From tax increases to increased crime to declining quality of life to sketchy neighborhood safety things are getting pretty shoddy in the Bayou City and surrounding areas. Corruption at all levels of government run rampant, will the last person to be indicted for fraud or corruption please turn out the lights once you leave the office? Now, in an effort to shunt more money to their preferred patrons, local politicians are moving to raise taxes on residents until their eyes bleed.  This money will NOT go to help the public, it will predominantly be redirected to their friends who either donated to their campaigns or to whom they owe various other political favors. The media (see above) will not report on this because, in addition to being pretty much worthless these days, they are also the largest collective of courtiers that you will ever find. What they want, more than doing their jobs, is retaining access to those in power. It all leads to reporting that overlooks the obvious that you see every day. It's going to get way worse before it gets better.

3. Ragweed begone!

I'm not sure about you, but my allergies are severe right now.  Like many, I'm allergic to ragweed and it's really bad in Houston right now.  While we have to thank Mother Nature for Saharan Dust, which has really reduced our tropical activity this year, we can curse her a little for the heat domes that seem to be settling in on us. The old saying was "Houston, it's worth it."  Sadly, increasingly, it's not.

4. Dancing with the Crooks.

It's been around 5-6 years since I last watched an episode of the increasingly inaccurately named television series Dancing with the Stars.  Given the presence of Anna Delvay (the Fake heiress who scammed several people out of Millions of Dollars and who is now on some weird form of "house" arrest after overstaying her Visa) on the show I think it's time that people tune out and let the show out of its misery.  This feels oh so much like a desperate last-gasp of a show that's been running on an Iron Lung for years now. Related: has there ever been a company that's fallen so far, so fast as Disney? From the creators of beloved children's animated movies to the purveyors of some of the worst received content out there, clearly a course correction is desperately needed.  They ruined Marvel, they've all but gutted Star Wars, and pretty much every thing they touch now is doomed to failure.

5. Our long, National nightmare is almost over.

In case you missed it, I'm referring to election season. If, like me, you're tired of having your football games interrupted by Harris/Trump or (more often in Texas) Allred/Cruz ads just keep the faith that the end is nigh. They're awful, there are too many of them, and none of them say anything that is likely to change the minds of one voter. If, at this point in the election cycle, someone presents themselves to your or the media as 'an undecided voter' what they're really saying is either "I'm an idiot" or "I'm in desperate need of attention." Just make it stop already.

News Round-Up (09/17/2024)

Don't mess with Israel Wow.

Their problem seems to be more with them than Texas. The media loves to hold up these situations as there being something wrong with Texas.  No, clearly there is something wrong with Californians.

Nope. This artificial food trend needs to stop.

And when the plume of fire arose before them they all knew it was time to abandon LaPorte to travel to the Holy Land.

Given the growing number of people who believe property is theft. This can only end badly.

Ragweed sucks. If you're not afflicted by it, good on you. I, for one, am miserable.

I'm old enough to remember when the Chron itself gushed about Annise Parker conquering homelessness in Houston. Apparently, not so much. Of course, it was never really eradicated, just moved out of the areas where wealthy, white, liberals lived to live and play.  Our of sight, out of mind one guesses.

The story of PlazAmericas, the former Sharpstown Mall, is a rare, good story in Houston right now. In a city desperately needing something good to point to as everything is turning to shit.

In a city that cannot fund waste collection, is this really a prudent expenditure? And yes, before you say anything, I realize this is TIRZ spending, and not coming from the City Coffers. However, it should also serve as a call to re-examine TIRZ altogether.

The public battle between Hidalgo, Ellis and Garcia is about to get nasty thanks to Barbie Robinson. Rodney Ellis and Lina Hidalgo want Adrian Garcia gone so, so badly.

I had no plans to watch this show. Seems my instincts were right.

Once at the trough, always at the trough.

Could it be....Satan? Or just the horrid people that have a certain lack of moral compass that it takes to survive in American politics today?

The politicization of Science is not a good thing. In fact, it might represent the end of actual science as we know it. It will soon become weaponized.

College Football Week 2 (And a look-ahead to Week 3)

Michigan is in big, big trouble. Texas is most assuredly not. Notre Dame did Notre Dame things, and Georgia still looks like the top team in the Country.

As a matter of fact, ALL of the top teams in the Country owe the Irish one. Already I've heard that Coach Sark and a host of other coaches are holding up the Irish loss, at home, to Northern Illinois, as an example of what could happen to them if they slack off, or take an opponent for granted.

Of the Top 10, the SEC holds six spots, the B1G holds 3 and the ACC holds down one spot. Nothing for the Big XII. 

Given the results of SOME of the inter-conference games, the SEC is probably overrated at this point, but they now have the full power of the ESPN College Football hype-machine behind them so I imagine they stay that way all year long.

I feel some more upset potential this weekend. I like Pitt to pull an upset over West Virginia in the Backyard Brawl, UNLV to take the measure of Kansas. I also like Washington State over Washington, but not enough to pull the ML trigger. I'll take +4.5 and be happy with it.

Arizona State was a -2.5 favorite over Texas State/ I liked that line and took it.  The line has moved to PK and AZ State is -110.  However, you can get them on the ML for better odds than that. I've watched AZ State play in both week 1 & 2. I really like the odds for them so I doubled up.  Last play is Cincinnati at -2.5.  You cannot get that line any longer, it's jumped to -3.5. I do not like the line as it currently stands.

As a quick aside: NFL markets are tough. Last week the both the favorites covering and the O/U came in at 9-7. The NFL is a terribly efficient market and harder than heck to bet into with much of an edge. There's a reason I limit my play to College Football.  Even then it's getting tougher and tougher to find games. Doubly tough when betting into the Top 25.  But there are nuggets to be found. It just takes some deeper diving.

At this point I still think Boise State is the odds-on favorite to finish at the top of the heap for the G5 automatic playoff spot. Yes, UNI has the best win at this point but the Mountain West is a MUCH better conference than the MAC and I still think Boise is the favorite to win that. That said, right now UNI is a deserving top seed.

Week 3 actually promises to be fun. The Apple Cup is being played, as is the Backyard Brawl and the Bayou Bucket. Some fun, regional rivals have fit themselves into the schedule. It's nice to see these schools try and keep the rivalries going. They make College Football better and seem to be the one thing we're in danger of losing with the realignment mess the way it is.

Good luck this week.

News Round-up (09/04/2024)

 The "Football is BACK" edition.......

Do you even BET bro? Some in the media want to paint legalized sports betting as the scourge of the modern age.  The data doesn't reflect that reality (although it does show that there are some groups that probably need to be targeted for help and some better regulation is needed) but that doesn't seem to be stopping them.

Get well soon Mack.

What's bad for the Oil and Gas industry, is awful for Houston. Unfortunately it doesn't seem that the business reporter for Houston's Regional newspaper understands that. 

Of course, it COULD be that he wants to see Houston fall into disrepair.

Harris County Government has become quite the mess. Amazing how far it's fallen in just a few short years.

Maybe they need to raise taxes to pay for their legal bills? In reality, Ellis and Hidalgo (and to a lesser extent Garcia, although he's on the outs now) have been pushing for large tax increases for a while. Hurricane Beryl just gave them an excuse to do so.  If you haven't started planning your exit from Harris County, you might want to start giving it serious consideration.

On September 10th at 8PM I would advise, for your sanity, that you find something else to do besides watch these two low-functioning idiots take the debate stand. You'll thank me for this.

Here's hoping Breaking is a one and done Olympic event.

It's official, everyone has a podcast now. The biggest issue with them, as it became with blogs years ago, is that very, very few of them have anything very interesting to say.

Dancing with the Stars continues to push the boundaries of Celebrity.

A disaster in slow motion. This is insane. Here's hoping they can find a solution, or provide some help, to these poor folks.

The Tesla CyberTruck is a disaster. It's not a truck, it's ugly as sin, and it's clearly unsound. Since only around 3000 have been purchased if you see someone in your city driving one you have just identified your village idiot.

Here's hoping for some semblance of recovery for Rebecca Cheptegei

And finally....

You should really pay no attention to College Football Top 25 polls right now. At best they are guesses, at worst, click-bait and fodder for bad TV & radio sports talk shows. (of which there are many).

Some thoughts after Zero Week and Week One in College Football.

Congratulations y'all.  We made it. College Football is BACK and, despite some old-timers protestations  to the contrary (self-included) it looks like it's all going to be fine.

And, yes, it was hard to find some true gems in what was a weekend full of relative blow-outs, there were some take-aways that I noticed and I'm going to summarize them here:

1. Florida State.

Let's just go ahead and get this one out of the way. There's a lot to unpack with this team. And while most of it centers on the offense, and the poor performances of DJ Uiagalelei, their defense, especially defending the run, is not good. Florida State has holes throughout their roster, most noticeably at QB, where I think we MIGHT just have witnessed the last Collegiate game for DJU, IF this Brock kid is ready that is. My guess would be the Mike Norvell keeps his job even IF the Seminoles continue to flame out.  After all, who could they possibly hire at this point that would be any better?

2. The 12-team playoff

If, by this time, you do not understand how the playoff works then you obviously did not watch College Football at all over the weekend. Seemingly every broadcast (ESPN/FOX/CBS) had an explainer on how a bracket works. It was infuriating, boring and after a while very repetitious. Hopefully that was just a one week thing. 

3. Ranking the Teams.

I'm not a fan of Top 25 rankings this early in the season. In fact, I wish they would just up and do away with them until say, mid-October.  That said, I do think there is some benefit in discussing where teams are in the pecking order, where they could be and possibly putting them in unranked tiers.  Here's my go at it.

Looking Playoff Ready Right Now: Georgia, Alabama, Penn State, Ohio State, Utah, Miami, Texas.

Not looking ready for the playoffs but could get there by the end of the season: Boston College, Michigan, Ole Miss, Oregon, USC, Notre Dame.

Stick a fork in them: Florida State (see above), Texas A&M, West Virginia, LSU, Florida, Clemson

For all of the other teams it's just too early to tell. Certainly there were some good performances but, and especially for the teams above in the "might get there" column many had great performances but it was against inferior competition. Many of those teams did not play their best, but they could improve by the end of the season.

One of those teams, I think, is Michigan.  And yes, I know I'm a fan but I saw enough on defense that I think this team will be OK by the end of the year, once the offense has a chance to gel. Unfortunately, I don't think they're going to be able to fix their issues prior to Texas rolling into the Big House.  As such, I have a large supply of whiskey on-hand for this upcoming Saturday.

4. Betting recap. 

Normally I'm not one to bet the opening weekend. I prefer to see the games, and get some actual, usable data.  I did well fading Colorado, Houston and Florida State. I did not do as well taking some shots at some big underdogs. All in all the opening weekend was a push. I've already loaded up my plays for this upcoming weekend which I'll share later, probably on Friday morning if all goes to plan.

As always, if you DO choose to place wagers on the game do so responsibly. Don't hire a tout service and bet within your means. If it's not fun, stop. If you find yourself chasing losses, stop. Betting is entertainment, treat it as such.  Also please remember that sports betting is illegal in many jurisdictions still. Know your local laws and know your outs for placing legal bets during the season. In many cases that might involve driving across State lines.

5. Final Thoughts.

After Week One it's easy to get irrational. "UNLV to the Playoffs" is one I've seen.  While UNLV looked REALLY good against what many thought would be an improved UH team, I still believe that NEXT year is the one to watch for the Cougars. Willie Fritz seems to have a knack for turning it around then, not in year one.  But UNLV's performance does show that the Odom miracle in the desert is probably more than a one-year fluke flash in the plan. This is a talented team with some depth across the roster. I still think Boise State is the team to beat in the Mountain West, but UNLV is #2 with a bullet.

As for the rest?

Again, Top 25 lists are worthless this time of year. There's a LOT of football still to be played in front of us. Top teams will play top teams and it will all work itself out in the end.  Enjoy the ride.