Thursday, September 12, 2024

College Football Week 2 (And a look-ahead to Week 3)

Michigan is in big, big trouble. Texas is most assuredly not. Notre Dame did Notre Dame things, and Georgia still looks like the top team in the Country.

As a matter of fact, ALL of the top teams in the Country owe the Irish one. Already I've heard that Coach Sark and a host of other coaches are holding up the Irish loss, at home, to Northern Illinois, as an example of what could happen to them if they slack off, or take an opponent for granted.

Of the Top 10, the SEC holds six spots, the B1G holds 3 and the ACC holds down one spot. Nothing for the Big XII. 

Given the results of SOME of the inter-conference games, the SEC is probably overrated at this point, but they now have the full power of the ESPN College Football hype-machine behind them so I imagine they stay that way all year long.

I feel some more upset potential this weekend. I like Pitt to pull an upset over West Virginia in the Backyard Brawl, UNLV to take the measure of Kansas. I also like Washington State over Washington, but not enough to pull the ML trigger. I'll take +4.5 and be happy with it.

Arizona State was a -2.5 favorite over Texas State/ I liked that line and took it.  The line has moved to PK and AZ State is -110.  However, you can get them on the ML for better odds than that. I've watched AZ State play in both week 1 & 2. I really like the odds for them so I doubled up.  Last play is Cincinnati at -2.5.  You cannot get that line any longer, it's jumped to -3.5. I do not like the line as it currently stands.

As a quick aside: NFL markets are tough. Last week the both the favorites covering and the O/U came in at 9-7. The NFL is a terribly efficient market and harder than heck to bet into with much of an edge. There's a reason I limit my play to College Football.  Even then it's getting tougher and tougher to find games. Doubly tough when betting into the Top 25.  But there are nuggets to be found. It just takes some deeper diving.

At this point I still think Boise State is the odds-on favorite to finish at the top of the heap for the G5 automatic playoff spot. Yes, UNI has the best win at this point but the Mountain West is a MUCH better conference than the MAC and I still think Boise is the favorite to win that. That said, right now UNI is a deserving top seed.

Week 3 actually promises to be fun. The Apple Cup is being played, as is the Backyard Brawl and the Bayou Bucket. Some fun, regional rivals have fit themselves into the schedule. It's nice to see these schools try and keep the rivalries going. They make College Football better and seem to be the one thing we're in danger of losing with the realignment mess the way it is.


Good luck this week.

No comments:

Sports Section