USMNT: Just like that, it's over.

There are a lot of people on Twitter, on message boards, and on talk radio this morning trying desperately to sort out some semblance of meaning behind the US Men's National Team's 2-1 loss to a far superior Belgium side yesterday with varying degrees of success.

While it's true that the USA 23 showed heart what they didn't show was a competitive level of talent, athleticism and skill. Of the 10 best players on the pitch yesterday only 1 (Goalkeeper Tim Howard) was on the USMNT roster.  Players like Kompany, De Bruyne, Lukaku, Mirellas, Origi, Hazard and Mertens were just too big, too strong and too fast for the United States side to control. And while players like Julian Green and Yedlin had outstanding moments of joy, these were entwined too deeply with moments of heartache (Yedlin not getting back on Lukaku's goal for instance) as to make them too high a hill to over come.

What still remains for the US side is their long-term bugaboo: No reliable offensive attack, and an inability to gain and maintain possession from top-tier teams. The USMNT is one that relies on brilliant goal play first, good defense second and then a set-piece, hit 'em and hope style of offense. As ESPN commentator Ian Darke put it "the US is looking for a searchlight robbery here".

Such has been the case with all USMNT's dating back to the start of the so-called "soccer turn-around" of 1994. The US hosted World Cup saw a fundamental changing of the laws of the game to make the sport more "US Friendly".  This was the beginning of the "no kick-back" rule that prevented the goalie from handing a ball played back to him by his own teammate unless it was struck by the head. Even the ball during that WC was redesigned to be more aerodynamic in a hope that it would lead to more scoring.

This World Cup also led to the formation of Major League Soccer which was a condition of the US getting the games, and was designed with the mindset of creating a future generation of US players who could compete at the highest levels of the world stage.

So we find ourselves, 20 years on, looking at pretty much the same level of talent comparatively that we saw in 1994. Back then the names were Meola and Lalas and Jones. Today the names are Howard, Beasley and Dempsey. Through the years the US has trundled along with a cast of characters including Donovan, Keller, Caligiri, Onyewu, Johnson and Wynalda. All of these players and still, very little in the name of advancement.

Part of the reason is the MLS itself. Instead of modeling a league such as the Jupiler in Belgium, the club has decided to make use of glorified club level players interspersed with some name US and aging European stars.  The game is slow, plodding, and there's little encouragement for the team owners to improve their lots due to the absence of a system of promotion and relegation as one finds in almost every serious football league around the world.

The biggest mistake that MLS bigwigs made was choosing to copy the NFL league model and not, as they should have, the International football model that fans have grown to love.  Make no mistake about it, the Barclay's Premier League, Serie A, and La Liga are bigger TV draws in the USA right now than is MLS.  And there's rising interest in smaller leagues such as the NASL and the USL Pro.

This is not to say that Pro/Rel is the be all-end all for an American football ascendency. There has to be a total revamping of how the game is handled from the youth leagues on up. Player development at EVERY level is lacking in the US, as youth teams teach too much structure and strategy and don't focus on the important bits like scoring and creativity.

There's a reason some of the worst players on the USMNT this World Cup, Bradley (who had a horrible Cup) and Brad Davis (Who might as well have been invisible) were MLS players. They struggled because they've not faced the best players in the world on a consistent basis.

Don't get me wrong. Both of these players are very good, top-flight players at the MLS level but, when you ask them to play above, they are out of depth.  This is not their fault as much as it is the fault of the league and it's shoddy development system.

So, the USMNT is out, American soccer is stagnant, and a majority of the Country has just tuned out of the game for another four years.  The good news is this means the rebuilding and infighting will occur outside of the public eye. The bad news is no one will really understand what it all means.

Thoughts/Prediction: USA vs. Belgium

For most Americans, Belgium is that place with Brussels which they think might be a name for a vegetable they hated as a kid or they might have heard something on the news about how it's the Capitol of the EU. (It's not, because the EU HAS no official capitol but it's as close as the Euros are going to get.)  For most Euros, Belgium is the traditional place where France and Germany hash out their differences. Mostly though the Belgians are famous for one thing. Inventing what is now known as the French Fry. Of course, in Belgium, they put mayonnaise on theirs (which is actually preferable to ketchup I promise).

In football, most Americans, even the so-called "hard core" soccer fans don't pay much attention to the Jupiler League or even realize it exists. But exist it does and while it's glory days seem firmly in the rear view mirror there's still a ton of talent developed there which is usually swept up in fairly quick fashion by the more wealthy leagues in England, France, Italy and Spain.

Unfortunately, Belgium enters this game in front of a backdrop of political turmoil on the home front and without the services of top mid-fielder Steven DeFour.  The latter is especially good for the USMNT because they tend to struggle against teams that have brilliant control and possession throughout the midfield. (Think Germany Light)

With all things USMNT today's game is going to be determined by two things: 

1. Can they control the ball AT ALL in the mid-field?
2. Can they score enough?

With DeFour out and Kompany possibly having health issues I think it's fairly safe to say that the US has a much better chance at winning this game than the game w/Germany.  That said, I think the Belgians are just that much better and their superior play in the midfield will carry the day and lead them to a 1-0 win.

#USMNT vs. Ghana - World Cup 2014

Let's start from the top:  Jurgen Klinsmann is correct, this is a must-win game for both teams. And while I agree with the writer of the linked article that Group G is not the "Group of death" (I reserve that title for Group D with Italy, Uruguay, Costa Rica and England all having a chance to advance) this is a trouble group for the US and I just don't see them being all that competitive against the teams within.

For anything to happen for the USMNT however a win over Ghana is a must, and given the lack of quality in the US back-line in a World Cup that's already being marked by offensive play I just don't see the US withstanding a Ghana attack that includes some top level players including the Ayew brothers and top striker Asamoah Gyan who is faster than any US defenseman at any level.

The US is going to have to rely on Tim Howard who is still one of the better keepers in the world and will have to get in the way of some direct shots on goal often in this game.  One questions whether or not the US will have to refrain from sending their defensemen forward because of the threat of Gyan? Or will they be able to attack from the back in a game that is going to require that some goals be scored?

It's not as if the US doesn't have talent. While they have always lacked a true No. 9-style player, Jozy Altidore and Clint Dempsey are a quality pair of forwards despite Altidore's much publicized scoring drought (broken, thankfully, in the last US WC warm-up game). And with the Black Star's star midfielder Messian questionable with an injury, you would think that Michael Bradley and Co. could have a little easier time of it controlling play in the middle 2/3rds.

But this is a World Cup where the Americans seem to be building for the future, one where Klinsmann is trying to show us that we still need player development beyond the current level.  Looking at the current roster as compared to the rosters from 2006 and 2010 it's hard to see much evidence of any progression whatsoever.

The USMNT is still missing a number 9 (the great white whale of American football), still has unproven players in both the defensive side and the midfield, still has a couple of stars who are asked to do things they're not ideally suited for, and is still waiting for their big breakout star. (In 2006 & 2010 it was the vastly overrated Oguchi Onyewu, this year it appears to be either Altidore, or possibly Julian Green)

Either way I think that this team, FIFA's silly world rankings notwithstanding, is going to find itself out of it's depth. I think the speed and offensive talent of Ghana is going to be the difference, especially when you consider the offensive flavor that is becoming dominate early on.  Both teems need three points here, only one is going to get them.

My bet is it will be Ghana at a score of 2-1.

Soccer in America

In a guest column today in the Houston Chronicle former US Men's National Team member and former Houston Dynamo Brian Ching pens a column that is, ostensibly, about the rise in popularity of soccer in America but which is really nothing more than a veiled shot at USMNT coach Jurgen Klinsmann for *gasp* having the temerity to leave Landon Donovan off of the World Cup 23 man roster.  More on that later.

First, it's probably that Ching's attitude toward soccer in America is fueled by his ignorance of Soccer at the top level of club play.  Taking participation rates in leagues and trying to extrapolate it to future interest is silly. A lot of children that play Little League baseball grow up to not be fans of Major League baseball. For that matter, look at all of the children in youth tennis, then take a look at ratings for professional tennis. Clearly it's not possible to project future interest in a sport based on levels of youth participation.

The second argument that Ching makes is even more silly.  Suggesting that the MLS is soon to be a top-two league in the US is ridiculous on it's face.  MLS is possibly the worst example of true soccer in America today. It's a closed league whose business model is not built around winning, but in putting aging players with names on rosters to drive fan interest. While this might have allowed Mr. Beckham to make some more money in his career, it certainly didn't help elevate the game across the board. Again, it's impossible to look at the popularity of the Barclay's Premier League on NBC and it's affiliates and suggest that those same fans are going to accept a marked decrease in quality and switch over to MLS in the future.

Finally, I'm constantly amazed by the amount of grief given to Klinsmann over his handling of the USMNT. For a former marginal player at the International level such as Ching to question a man whose got a World Cup in his trophy cabinet simply because he likes the guy being omitted from the team is ridiculous. Hell, I'm a Landon fan and wish he was on the team but you have to think that Klinsmann is using this WC to build for the next one where he might think the US has an actual chance.

Unlike Ching's "flip a coin" theory of whether the USMNT will advance out of the group stage I will posit that the US chances are slim to none.  While slim might not have left town it is certainly warming up the engine.  If it's agreed that the US has almost zero chance of beating Germany (and they don't) then you have to hang your hopes on beating Portugal, the number 10 ranked team in the WC while the US is ranked 20th.  Every team in the US group is ranked ahead of them, with Germany being among the favorites to win. Even the 3rd team in the group, Ghana, is the team that eliminated the US in the last two World Cups.

If anything, Ching's missive proves just how big the blind spot is for Americans when it comes to the beautiful game.  For America, even the big, huge American soccer fans, the World Cup is a neat little sporting event that allows them to watch world class football once every four years. For other countries, these games played over the next few weeks are matters of national pride, reasons to emote, celebrate and even cry. The World Cup, is all.

Four years ago my team, Scotland, was denied a chance to play in this grand tournament due mainly to a dodgy call by a horrible FIFA referee and an own goal which put France, where they had a terrible WC and didn't clear the elimination round. against Spain, who then went on to win the damn thing.  I was angry for months about that call game*.  This time around the Scots were horrible, the English are ageing rapidly and I'm for the Azzurri all the way. I'm betting on Germany however, who I predict will whip the USMNT 4-0.











*As Matt pointed out in the comments, I'm not sure why I juxtaposed Ireland v. France for Scotland v. Spain in 2010 WC qualifying. Maybe I'm getting senile as I get older?

Wagering Tidbits: American Football and Football

First off, it's football, not fútbol as American media outlets try and call it when they're trying to act knowledgeable.  Now, if you're speaking in Spanish, or another Latin-American dialect then yes,  fútbol would be correct. If you're speaking the Queen's English then you can call it footy.  Otherwise, stick with soccer folks.  It doesn't make you sound any more worldly when you call it otherwise.

Now, on a couple of upcoming bets that I'll be laying down on an upcoming trip to Vegas.

1. NFL Futures Bet: Texans Win total O/U 7 1/2 - I'm betting the under here because I still don't think the Texans have the QB play to contend. I also think there are still several holes in this roster that have not been addressed and will not be for a couple of years.  Given the team's management DNA I wouldn't expect them to break even until next year.

2. World Cup: To win: Germany @ 5-1 - I think Germany is the best team in this year's World Cup, but I think playing in Brazil is going to make it harder for everyone not wearing yellow blue and green. That said, I still like the Germans.

There are a ton of individual games that I'll be looking at, but I'm not ready to jump on them now.

That said, today's match between Brazil and Croatia looks strong for Brazil winning both the first and second halves (-125) although the overall line (Brazil -325) is a pass.  I also like Brazil to score more than three goals (7/4 odds per the link at William Hill but [sadly] not offered in Vegas) so the line of -110 for OVER 2.5 is very, very tempting.

Good luck and enjoy the matches.