College Football 2018 Season Preview: The AAC.

I'm going to start the Group of 5 with the American Athletic Conference, who I think has one of the best chances of placing a team in the "here's a bread crumb so you don't sue us" New Year's Six game that's been reserved just to shut them all up.

Unlike the Power 5 I'm not going to delve that deeply into each team.

Conference Standings:
East		W	L	West		W	L
South Florida		10	2	Memphis		12	0
UCF		9	3	Tulane		8	4
Temple		8	4	Navy		8	5
Cincinnati		5	7	Houston		6	6
East Carolina		2	10	SMU		4	8
Connecticut		2	10	Tulsa		3	9
Won division				Won division
Conference Championship:
	Memphis over South Florida
Bowl Teams:		7
	CFP:	None
	Big 6:	Memphis
	CFP 2:	None
	Others:	South Florida
		UCF
		Temple
		Tulane
		Navy
		Houston
Most Underrated:	Tulane
Most Overrated:	Houston
Coaches on Hot Seat:	Houston, SMU, Connecticut, Cincinnati, East Carolina, SMU

Best Team: Memphis and I don't think it's that close.

Thing to watch: Gaze upon and marvel at Houston's all-world JR DT Ed Oliver as he plays his last college football season before moving on to the NFL Draft, where he'll probably be the first player taken.  After watching him play for two years he IS as good as the hype.  Houston's team on the other hand?  There's a reason I put Houston HC Major Applewhite on my "hot seat" list.

Overrated because of last year TOTY: UCF, but they're not as overrated as Houston.  UCF had a magical year and then lost a ton of talent on both offense and defense, and their head coach. They still have talent, but I don't even think they're the best team in their division this year.

Former good team ruined by Tommy Tuberville: Cincinnati. Man he ruined this program. It should be a crime what he did.

Open Questions: Can Tulsa beat Central Arkansas to open the season? I have them winning, but I wouldn't be shocked if they lose.

When will Tulane find an offense? I think it's this year. Their head coach is too good for them not to surprise sometime soon.

Why shouldn't you consider this a P6WER conference like they say?  Because the middle and bottom of this conference is WEAK.  And they have a bad record playing Power 5 Conferences outside of NY Bowl Games.

College Football Season Preview: The PAC-12

The way I see it there are two ways to look at the PAC-12 this year. Either you're a believer in Washington and see them running away and hiding, or you don't believe in them and think the season is going to be topsy-turvey with twists, turns and upsets galore.

I choose the latter.....

Conference Standings:
North	W	L	South	W	L
Washington	10	2	USC	10	2
Oregon	10	2	Arizona	7	5
Stanford	9	3	Utah	7	5
Washington State	9	3	Colorado	6	6
California	4	8	Arizona State	5	7
Oregon State	2	10	UCLA	4	8
Won division			Won division
Conference Championship:
	Washington over USC
Bowl Teams:	8
CFP:	None
Big 6:	USC	Washington
CFP 2:	None
Others:	Oregon
	Stanford
	Washington State
	Arizona
	Utah
	Colorado
Most Underrated:	Oregon
Most Overrated:	UCLA
Coaches on Hot Seat:	None

And here's my Team by Team:

1. Washington: Despite not believing in their ability to go undefeated and make the CFP, I still think you have to respect the talent possessed by the Huskies and I still think they're the best team in the PAC-12. Jake Browning is in his final year, as is RB Myles Gaskins and I'm fully expecting big years from them both. Offensively this team is going to be just fine. Defensively is where I think the questions lie as they have young players stepping in to fill huge shoes. That game against Auburn to start the season probably knocks them down in terms of CFP contention but I really think it's the game at Eugene that does them in.

2. USC: Head coach Clay Helton has a ton of offensive firepower to replace this year, starting with Sam Darnold. They're going to lean on True Freshman JT Daniels it seem to try and do it. This offense is YOUNG, but talented, fortunately they start the season against UNLV, unfortunately they run into Stanford in week 2, then Texas in week 3. After that however I think they get their sea-legs underneath them and go on a roll to finish atop the South.

3. Oregon: Mario Cristobal takes over the coaching reins from here and gone again Willie Taggert and the good news is that QB Justin Herbert seems to be healthy to start the season. This is an offensively talented Ducks team that might need a minute or two to grow into their defense.  They start the season off with three easy games so by the time Stanford comes to Eugene they should have it figured out. I think they'll be good this year, but not quite good enough to win the title.

4. Stanford: As long as David Shaw is the head coach Stanford is never going to be "bad". They also have Bryce Love back at RB running behind a good offensive line so they're going to be a handful on offense. Defensively they bring almost everyone back and are loaded with experienced upper classmen. Stanford will play everyone tough, but they're a little different team on the road than they are at the Farm and I think they stumble when traveling a few too many times this year.

5. Washington State: Mike Leach is a national treasure and one of the best offensive minds in the game. Yes, there's a huge question of who's going to be the quarterback but offensively this team has talent to spare. Defensively I expect them to be at, or slightly above last year's level which is not that bad.  Because of Leach's track record I'm placing Washington State on the high end of their scale. IF the QB situation isn't resolved they could well underperform however.

6. Arizona: After his quarterback issues at Texas A&M, new head coach Kevin Sumlin had to look at Khalil Tate and immediately send Rich Rodriguez a thank you card.  Add to that WR Shun Brown, RB JJ Taylor and Arizona is loaded at the skill positions.  Their big problem offensively? A young, and questionable O-line that's going to have to get good in a hurry since they open the season at BYU.  I think they make a bowl, I think they beat Houston, but I don't think they're ready yet to truly challenge the top-tier.

7. Utah: Someone on Twitter, sorry, I don't remember who, said that Utah was one of those teams that you might play and beat but wish that you hadn't after the game. Head Coach Tyler Wittingham's teams are always physical, and with QB Tyler Huntly and RB Zach Moss they have a great offensive backfield. Their O-line and D-line are big and physical, and their LB's make up ground and hit hard. I do worry a little bit about their DB's, but overall this is going to be a tough team to play. Just not enough talent across the board to win consistently against the big teams. Don't be surprised to see them pull an upset here and there however, especially at home.

8. Colorado: Last year the Buffalo took a stop back but I think they pull back into bowl contention this year.  Quarterback Steven Montez is back and he finally should have a running game to take the pressure off of him in the person of SR Transfer(Virginia Tech) RB Trayvon McMillan.  How far they can go however depends on an O-line that needs to improve from last years showing. Defensively they're relying on a lot of transfers, some who have been with the program for a couple of years now, to try and stop some of the high powered offenses they'll be seeing week in and week out in conference play.

9. Arizona State: There are two ways that this season can go for Arizona State, they can either surprise everyone and be pretty good, or they can collapse.  I think they have enough talent left over from Graham to avoid a total collapse, but the Herm Edwards hiring is not going to work out for them long-term. Enjoy this 5-7 season Sun Devils fans, because I think it's going to get a LOT worse before it gets better.

10. California: I expect the Bears offense to be one-handed at the start of the season, fully relying on Sr RB Patrick Laird running behind a very experienced offensive line as the passing game tries to gel. The defense has a lot of upper-classmen leadership but I think a lack of quality depth is going to find them wearing down against pass-happy PAC-12 offenses as games go on. There's a fault-line famously through their stadium. By the end of the season some might be praying for an earthquake.

11. UCLA: Easily the most over-hyped and overrated team in the PAC-12, largely due to new head coach Chip Kelly.  The problem for Kelly is that he really doesn't have a good answer at QB to replace Josh Rosen, and he's going to have to rely on young guys to grow up in a hurry on both offense and defense facing some tough units across the ball.  A big game for them is Week 3 at Fresno State, who has a good team.  This team is going to struggle this year, but things are looking up.

12. Oregon State: Head Coach Jonathan Smith just doesn't have a whole lot of talent to work with, as the struggles for the Beavers appear to be continuing. Unfortunately the Rodgers brothers aren't walking through the door so Smith is going to have to rebuild the old fashioned way.  Hopefully the administration is patient because this is a deep, dark hole they find themselves in and constantly churning coaches will not be the way to dig out of it.

Next Up: we move to the Group of 5 (not not the P6WER) and take a look at the American Athletic Conference.

From me On Twitter Re: Vegas future bookings dropping and casino stocks tanking.

I put this out onTwitter today but I thought it might be a good idea to reproduce it here.

Honestly I don't think the bad gaming odds have much to do with Vegas attendance dropping. As much as people like me gripe about it we're old men hollering at clouds. Most of the general public wouldn't know good blackjack rules from bad ones. Same for slot holds etc.

I think the real reason people are cooling on Vegas lately are all of the fees. Resort fees, parking fees, CTF fees, service fees, entertainment fees, booking fees, etc. Vegas was long considered a value destination by most, then it changed to faux luxury.

Granted, some people like that stuff, high-end liquors, being overcharged for middle-of-the-road alcohol, "gourmet" food that's just about the same as you can get at home (sans the celebrity chef of course) Night clubs, they'll even pay for it.

The reason for this is that people feel they're getting SOMETHING for their money. An experience, a nice pair of shoes, a decent meal, some wine, a drink. Even pools are popular despite high prices because they're FUN.

But all these fees are different. You pay something and you get nothing in return. Wi-fi? Local calls? Access to the Fitness facility? All those things used to be free. Same with parking. Now they're not and people are choosing to spend their entertainment dollars elsewhere.

Gambling as a draw faded away a LONG time ago. You can gamble in a casino near your home, even in Texas. What Vegas sold was an EXPERIENCE. They're not doing that any more, at least on the Strip. Now they're selling the experience as a white good and people are running away.

The biggest way to bring the crowds back is to drop/greatly reduce the fees, bring back some of the value and experience and people will return. Keep going the way they are going and it's going to get much worse before it gets better.

College Football 2018 Season Preview: The ACC

The top of the ACC might be the strongest of all the Power 5 conferences in college football. The 5 teams of Clemson, Virginia Tech, Florida State, Miami and NC State have the talent and ability to stand toe-to-toe with almost anyone in the nation.

Still, even with all these good teams I think the job that Dabo Swinney has done at Clemson has them a notch above the other teams in the conference.

Conference Standings:
Atlantic		W	L	Coastal		W	L
Clemson		12	0	Virginia Tech		10	2
Florida State		10	2	Miami		10	2
NC State		9	3	Duke		7	5
Louisville		8	4	Georgia Tech		6	6
Wake Forest		6	6	North Carolina		6	6
Boston College		3	9	Pittsburgh		3	9
Syracuse		2	10	Virginia		1	11
Won division				Won division
Conference Championship:
		Clemson over Virginia Tech
Bowl Teams:		10
	CFP:	Clemson
	Big 6:	Florida State
	CFP 2:	None
	Others:	Miami
		NC State
		Virginia Tech
		Louisville
		Duke
		Wake Forest
		North Carolina
		Georgia Tech
Most Underrated:	Virginia Tech
Most Overrated:	Boston College
Coaches on Hot Seat:	Pittsburgh
	Boston College
	Syracuse
	Virginia

Here's my team by team:

1. Clemson: There's a lot of noise about "who's going to start at quarterback?" and that's scaring some people away from the Tigers. But the fact is that either option is better than most teams already. Either Kelly Bryant or Treavor Lawrence would be the unquestioned starter for most programs in the country.  If you're going to have a problem, THIS is the one to have.  The Tigers have talent at all the skill positions and a nasty offensive line. Despite losing a lot to the NFL draft they will again have one of the nastiest front 7's on defense in football, and they have young talent for depth as well. Their defensive 2-deep is littered with upper-classmen, so they're going to rotate depth and not get tired. This is a loaded team.

2. Virginia Tech: Justin Fuente has a young quarterback throwing to a young-ish group of WR's so the passing game might need some time to gel. Fortunately they have RB Steven People's to carry them through behind a monster offensive line. On the defensive side of the ball they're going to have a mean defensive line, with a young but talented group of LB's backing them up. They're a little young at DB but a solid pass rush should allow them time to grow.  Add to that one of the best defensive coordinators in the country and I think they get the chance to play Clemson in the ACC Title game.

3a. Florida State: Yes, this is a transition year with Jimbo Fisher at Texas A&M and Willie Taggert taking the reins, but they still have offensive talent in bunches with QB Deondre Francios throwing to a talented trio of WR's and a stud running back in the person of Jacques Patrick.  The O-line might need a chance to gel, which makes the early game against Virginia Tech a challenge, but if they can survive that the schedule gets easier for the couple of weeks. Defensively they should be just fine.

3b. Miami: This will be Sr. QB Malik Rosier's last year to make a mark and I think the pieces are in place for him to do so. Miami still has a ton of talent on the offensive side of the ball, and I think they'll score points in bunches. Defensively they're fast, athletic, and a little lacking in depth which is a concern. Miami's early season schedule is friendly, and if they can beat Georgia Tech it probably sets up a barn burner of a game in Blacksburg. Enter Sandman.

4. NC State: This is the year for NC State head coach Dave Dorean. If he's going to contend for the ACC title it has to be with this group. A Senior laden offense and defense are solid, if not spectacular, and it remains to be seen how RS Sr Transfer (Boise State) Ryan Finley handles the offense under this pressure. I think they're going to need to lean on a talented defense early, but their early schedule is laughably easy and I wouldn't sleep on that Week 3 trip to Wake Forest.

5. Louisville: Unfortunately for the Cardinals, they have to start the season getting shellacked by Alabama. Head Coach Bobby Petrino is going to rely on SO QB Jawson Pass to fill the huge gap left by Heisman trophy winner Lamar Jackson. He might want to look over his shoulder however because Freshman Malik Cunningham might end up being the starting QB by season's end. Louisville is a good, but not great team that's going to struggle when they play the really good teams on their schedule. We've also seen that playing 'Bama to start the season can destroy a team mentally. Do you really have faith in Petrino to hold it together enough to make an ACC title run? 

6. Duke: Head Coach David Cutcliffe has found a home at Duke and considering the disadvantages he has there is doing an amazing job. He's got some offensive talent this time around and an offensive line anchored by Sr Center Zach Harmon that should get better as the year progresses. Defensively they're going to have to rely on a couple of Freshmen to grow up quickly in the defensive backfield, but the front 7 should be just fine. My question is: Can they score enough points consistently to win?

7a. Wake Forest: Welcome to the mushy middle of the ACC, three teams that aren't all that bad, but not all that good either. Wake Forest has a Senior heavy team that's OK, talented enough, and a team that you don't necessarily want to play at their house because Dave Clawson's group typically doesn't beat themselves. I do worry that overall team speed and size will be a huge issue against the better teams they face but they should do just enough to attain bowl eligibility.

7b. Georgia Tech: Yes, Paul Johnson runs the triple option but it's not entirely fair to call it a "gimmick offense". It's a good offense that makes the Yellow Jackets a tough team to deal with on a standard week and it can give teams fits. This is why I think Miami needs to beware of their game in Atlanta.  But this is a team filled with a lot of returning starters who were just average last year, and that's what I see for them this year.  The check-scratchers at Tech are starting to tire of Paul Johnson's ways and I'm not sure whether 6-6 will be enough for them to want to bring him back. Especially when you consider next year is probably a rebuilding year.

7c. North Carolina: Thanks to Larry Fedora for providing us with the best snippits of ACC Media Days. Offensively I've got concerns about an O-Line that is young and untested, and skill players that seem to be a notch below the best in the league. On defense it's the same. They lack a certain speed and tenacity that one finds in the best of circumstances.  If nothing else, we'll have Fedora's odd comments regarding football, tackling and destroying the Republic to kick around before their early-slate bowl game.

8. Boston College: Eagles head coach Steve Addazio hangs his hat on his defense and this year is going to be no different. They're going to try to find a way to run the ball with Sophomores at QB and RB, but at least they're behind a good offensive line. Defensively I think we see the Eagles take a step back this year as they lost a LOT of talent at LB from last year and a lot of what Addazio likes to do on defense is predicated on good LB play. I see this as a rebuilding year for Boston College, and it's going to be rough. But if the young players mature rapidly they could very easily out-perform my season prediction. It wouldn't be the first time I'm wrong about them and it probably won't be the last.

9. Pittsburgh: Put coach Pat Narduzzi in second place in your "ACC coaches most likely to get the boot" list for this year. Pitt is going to struggle scoring points, and struggle to stop teams late in games as lack of quality depth is going to wear down their defense. It's all going to start crashing down for Pitt in week 2, when Penn State comes to town. After that it's tough sledding for them in almost every game. Until they play.....

10. Syracuse: I like Dino Babers, I think he's a good coach that got put in a horrible situation at Syracuse and I think he's been unable to pull himself out of it. This is the last go-round for QB Eric Dungey and while I wish him success, I think the offensive line is going to be this team's undoing. On defense they should be fairly solid but a brutal schedule is going to ultimately do them in. After opening the season against Western Michigan, they snack on a cupcake before Florida State comes to town. Following that is another cupcake and then to Clemson, Pittsburgh, North Carolina at home, NC State at home, to Wake Forest, Louisville at home, to Notre Dame and to Boston College. Ouch.

11. Virginia: Head Coach Bronco Mendenhall obviously had no idea he was walking into a tire fire when he took the Virginia head job but here we are. Not much to say really, except that I think this is the low point before Mendenhall turns it around.

Up Next: The PAC-12 and what might be the most fun regular season of any Power 5 conference.

College Football: Possible Revision to my B1G predictions (obviously)

In light of the stories surrounding Ohio State Head Coach Urban Meyer I think it's fair to say that my B1G 2018 season projections are under review.

IF Urban Meyer gets dismissed from his position it will obviously change how the season is viewed. Ohio State still has all of that talent, but losing the head coach is typically pretty devastating for a team, any team.

For now we're going to plow forward with the remaining conferences but we'll probably be revisiting the B1G before the season starts.

Horse Racing: The 2018 Whitney Stakes

This is sure to bet the marquee race of Saturday but I'm not quite sure it's going to be the best race of the day, I'll reserve that title for either the West Virginia Derby at Mountaineer or the Whitney undercard Test Stakes ran just prior. The way I see this race is that there is a clear favorite, a couple of horses with upset potential and one really good wild card.

Here's my summary of the horses: (with Pole Positions, jockeys and trainers)

1. Tapwrit (John Valazquez/Todd Pletcher) [6-1] - Since winning the Belmont in 2017 Tapwrit has been a little bit of a disappointment.  But much could be said for most of the  3YO class that year.  His most recent race was against Diversify and others in the Suburban, where he laid an egg. He also didn't fire in his first race off a layoff, finishing 3rd in an allowance race at Belmont. Oof. Many "in the know" however feel that Pletcher has been pointing Tapwrit to this race all along.  He's going to have to improve mightily against this field however, but he's certainly going to be in my exotics based on prior form.

2. Backyard Heaven (Javier Castallano/Chad Brown) [9-2] - Maybe this horse has a chance to win IF he improves a bunch off of his recent form and IF trainer Chad Brown can replicate the form of his turf horses on dirt for a change?  Maybe? Looked good in the Alysheba (Gr II) against much lesser, but horrid in the Grade 1 Stephen F Foster which is the quality that he's running against here. I think he gets overbet and is a leave-out horse except at the bottom end of one's exotics.

3. Dalmore (Ricardo Santana/Bob Hess Jr.) [30-1] - A horse with some tactical speed, but not a lot, that should find himself near the front of the Whitney before falling back to near last as the true speed in this race takes over. He's in here, and will compete with the pace, making it an honest race, but that's about the best you can say about him. Pass.  If he beats me I'm wrong.

4. Mind Your Biscuits (Joel Rosario/Chad Summers) [2-1] - Here's your wildcard. One of the top 5 sprinters in the world seeks to lengthen this race and obviously Summers figures he's in with a chance. The problem is we just don't know if he can go this far. What we do know is that, because of his name, he'll probably get too much play to really take seriously as a betting option. That's too bad because this is one of my favorite active horses right now. I'll include him in my exotics, probably near the top.

5. Discreet Lover (Manny Franco/Uriah St. Louis) [30-1] - A tough horse that always seems to finish just off the board in Grade 1 Stakes races. I see the same for him here.  Against this field it will seem like his win in the Grade III Excelsior was a LONG TIME AGO and there's nothing in his form since then that makes me feel he'll compete here.  The most interesting bet for him might be between Dalmore for who finishes last in this race.

6. Diversify (Irad Ortiz Jr./Rick Violette) [7-5] - I could see him going off as less than an even-money favorite and it wouldn't be out of line. His last two races have been wins in the Commentator and the Gr II Suburban Handicap where he flat outran a field that included War Story, Tapwrit, Hoppertunity and Discreet Lover. The thing is, I don't think he's going to get challenged on the lead except by Dalmore, who is far slower than anything that challenged him in the Suburban. He'll be at the top of my exotics but the odds will be too small for a win bet.

7. Good Samaritan (Jose Ortiz/Bill Mott) [12-1] - I'm  not too concerned with the outside post because Good Samaritan is a closer who's going to have to hope for a hot pace where he can sweep up the pieces. IF Mind Your Biscuits gets involved with Diversify that could happen. In my opinion he's your best chance to beat the favorite and I'll be keying on him with a win bet and hoping to catch a price. In my exotics however I'll have him finishing 2nd - 4th.

8. McCracken (Brian Hernandez Jr./Ian Wilkes) [15-1] - Every year there is a horse that I like for which the connections continue to stubbornly place them in the wrong races.  McCracken is my horse this year. I LOVE him as a miler, I don't like him at all at 1 1/8th. I think he'll be running around trying to see if he can come in 3rd or 4th as he starts to fade at the Mile marker. I will use him in the bottom of my exotics, but that's about it.  Would LOVE to see him run in some mile races later in the year.


Picks: 6-4-7-1

Bets: Too be determined closer to post time.