This is sure to bet the marquee race of Saturday but I'm not quite sure it's going to be the best race of the day, I'll reserve that title for either the West Virginia Derby at Mountaineer or the Whitney undercard Test Stakes ran just prior. The way I see this race is that there is a clear favorite, a couple of horses with upset potential and one really good wild card.
Here's my summary of the horses: (with Pole Positions, jockeys and trainers)
1. Tapwrit (John Valazquez/Todd Pletcher) [6-1] - Since winning the Belmont in 2017 Tapwrit has been a little bit of a disappointment. But much could be said for most of the 3YO class that year. His most recent race was against Diversify and others in the Suburban, where he laid an egg. He also didn't fire in his first race off a layoff, finishing 3rd in an allowance race at Belmont. Oof. Many "in the know" however feel that Pletcher has been pointing Tapwrit to this race all along. He's going to have to improve mightily against this field however, but he's certainly going to be in my exotics based on prior form.
2. Backyard Heaven (Javier Castallano/Chad Brown) [9-2] - Maybe this horse has a chance to win IF he improves a bunch off of his recent form and IF trainer Chad Brown can replicate the form of his turf horses on dirt for a change? Maybe? Looked good in the Alysheba (Gr II) against much lesser, but horrid in the Grade 1 Stephen F Foster which is the quality that he's running against here. I think he gets overbet and is a leave-out horse except at the bottom end of one's exotics.
3. Dalmore (Ricardo Santana/Bob Hess Jr.) [30-1] - A horse with some tactical speed, but not a lot, that should find himself near the front of the Whitney before falling back to near last as the true speed in this race takes over. He's in here, and will compete with the pace, making it an honest race, but that's about the best you can say about him. Pass. If he beats me I'm wrong.
4. Mind Your Biscuits (Joel Rosario/Chad Summers) [2-1] - Here's your wildcard. One of the top 5 sprinters in the world seeks to lengthen this race and obviously Summers figures he's in with a chance. The problem is we just don't know if he can go this far. What we do know is that, because of his name, he'll probably get too much play to really take seriously as a betting option. That's too bad because this is one of my favorite active horses right now. I'll include him in my exotics, probably near the top.
5. Discreet Lover (Manny Franco/Uriah St. Louis) [30-1] - A tough horse that always seems to finish just off the board in Grade 1 Stakes races. I see the same for him here. Against this field it will seem like his win in the Grade III Excelsior was a LONG TIME AGO and there's nothing in his form since then that makes me feel he'll compete here. The most interesting bet for him might be between Dalmore for who finishes last in this race.
6. Diversify (Irad Ortiz Jr./Rick Violette) [7-5] - I could see him going off as less than an even-money favorite and it wouldn't be out of line. His last two races have been wins in the Commentator and the Gr II Suburban Handicap where he flat outran a field that included War Story, Tapwrit, Hoppertunity and Discreet Lover. The thing is, I don't think he's going to get challenged on the lead except by Dalmore, who is far slower than anything that challenged him in the Suburban. He'll be at the top of my exotics but the odds will be too small for a win bet.
7. Good Samaritan (Jose Ortiz/Bill Mott) [12-1] - I'm not too concerned with the outside post because Good Samaritan is a closer who's going to have to hope for a hot pace where he can sweep up the pieces. IF Mind Your Biscuits gets involved with Diversify that could happen. In my opinion he's your best chance to beat the favorite and I'll be keying on him with a win bet and hoping to catch a price. In my exotics however I'll have him finishing 2nd - 4th.
8. McCracken (Brian Hernandez Jr./Ian Wilkes) [15-1] - Every year there is a horse that I like for which the connections continue to stubbornly place them in the wrong races. McCracken is my horse this year. I LOVE him as a miler, I don't like him at all at 1 1/8th. I think he'll be running around trying to see if he can come in 3rd or 4th as he starts to fade at the Mile marker. I will use him in the bottom of my exotics, but that's about it. Would LOVE to see him run in some mile races later in the year.
Picks: 6-4-7-1
Bets: Too be determined closer to post time.
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