Continuing the best part of the horse racing calendar is this one, the 2018 West Virginia Derby. One of my favorite races to watch, and bet, it runs 1 1/8th miles over the dirt track at Mountaineer. It's sometimes shrouded by the Whitney, but it shouldn't be, because it always boasts a strong, evenly matched field which makes for some interesting betting angles.
Here are my thoughts of the entries, with post positions, M/L Odds, jockeys and trainers listed.
1. Lionite (David Cabrera/Steve Asmussen) [12-1] - This son of Quality Road might have had his best races as a 2-yr old, but trainer Steve Asmussen is hoping he hasn't. His biggest win was the ungraded Prairie Mile but he's struggled to compete in his last two races, finishing 7th in an Allowance race at Churchill Downs, although he did run a solid third in the Iowa Derby on July 6th. Asmussen has had success at this track, but this one will need to improve mightily to contend. Plus, not a fan of his inside post draw. Pass.
2. Draft Pick (Joe Talamo/Peter Eurton) [5-2] - This WAS your Los Alamitos Derby winner until Once on Whiskey came driving down the stretch to beat him by a nose. Possibly forgotten in all of that was the fact that this horse soundly beat Ax Man, who was considered a potential Top 5 horse in his class at the time. The good news for Draft Pick is that the pace in this race seems as if it's going to be a LOT slower, which means that he might have enough in the tank to hold off Once on Whiskey this time around. Not my key horse here, but he'll play a HUGE role in all of my wagering. I'll be watching the odds to see if he's playable straight up or not right up until post time.
3. Caloric (Ricardo Meijas/Odin Londono Jr.) [25-1] - There was a time that this horse built up a pretty good buzz. He won two claiming races in a row and appeared to be ready to compete with the top horses in this year's 3yo class. But then he bombed, finishing a way-back 7th in the Tampa Bay Derby, 4th in the Tom Ridge and an uninspiring 7th in the Ohio Derby. He'll have to prove me wrong to win here, because I'm passing on him, won't even be included at the bottom of my exotics.
4. King Cause (Julien Laparoux/Doug O'Neill) [20-1] - Yet another horse where I'm struggling to come up with a case for him winning. He's been atrocious when facing similar competition, including finishing next to last in the Lazarro Barrera Stakes, the Affirmed and the Los Alamitos Derby. I think he needs a big improvement just to qualify for the bottom of my exotics. Full pass on this one. If he beats me, then I'm wrong.
5. Once on Whiskey (Flavian Prat/Bob Baffert) [2-1] - One of the pure closers that I frequently bet on, I typically like a horse that can rate some. But Once on Whiskey has a great late move that served him well against a hot pace in the Los Alamitos, and might let him down here. My hope is that he sucks up all of the money leaving better odds below. Still, you'd be a fool to not include him in your exotics.
6. Rugbyman (Jorge Vargas Jr./Graham Motion) [8-1] - I can see a scenario where Rugbyman emerges victorious in this race. In fact, to me it's the most likely scenario. He ran 2nd in the Prince Lucky in June and then 4th in the Dwyer behind Firenze Fire, Seven Trumpets and Mendelssohn. His biggest win was his maiden win, by 14 1/2 lengths at Belmont. IF he can show a little improvement I think he rates off the front and holds off a hard charging Once on Whiskey. I'm hoping he climbs a little in the odds to make him my upset pick for this race.
7. Pamir (Luis Quinones/Pavel Vaschenko) [30-1] - The local horse. A horse who have never ran against Stakes company and has ran all three of his lifetime races at Mountaineer. He broke his maiden and then crossed the line 2nd in an allowance before winning by DQ. Look, he'll be the favorite of the local crowd but I honestly think he'll be battling for last in this race. If anything Quinones might try to take him out quickly but I don't think he's got what he needs to compete here.
8. High North (Florent Giroux/Brad Cox [9-2] - In every race there is a "sharp" horse that tends to take most of the play from those "in the know". I think for the West Virginia Derby that horse is going to be High North. He's coming off a win in the un-graded Ohio Derby (where he beat Lionite and Mr. Freeze) and he did win the Northern Spur, albeit over lesser company. Expect everyone to say he's got "the best chance to pull an upset" here but I think that honor truly lies elsewhere. He'll factor into the bottom of my exotics but I don't see using him anywhere else.
Picks: 5-2-6-8
Bets: We'll decide that on race day when the odds have a chance to settle a tad.
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