Last week I did not complete an NFL post because of lack of time (and interest, on my part). I had a couple of personal plays (San Fran, New Orleans) and I went 1-1. This week I'm bringing back the NFL 3 & OUT for your comedy pleasure.
Let's get right to the games...
1. Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5) @ Detroit [-145 & +125 {O/U 47.5}
I'm not a believer in Matt Patricia as an NFL head coach. While I do think the Lions have some talent, I also think that the Chargers are the much better team here. I will say that I've warned people I could be wrong on the Lions so take that into consideration.
Prediction: Chargers 27 Lions 13 LA Chargers to COVER -2.5
2. Seattle @ Pittsburgh (-4) [+175 -200] {O/U 46.5}
While I'm not ready to count the Steelers out after they got throttled in Foxboro, I do think this front of the schedule is brutal, and I think Seattle has a team that's going to cause a ruckus in the NFC this season. The add of JD Clowney to the defense makes them formidable.
Prediction: Seattle 24 Pittsburgh 20 Seattle to WIN on the ML
3. Chicago (-2.5) @ Denver [-150 & +130] {O/U 40.5}
I did not need week 1 to tell me that Joe Flacco was not a good QB. I'm expecting Khalil Mack to feast against this O-Line. What did surprise me was just how bad Denver's defense played last week. Also, Mitchell Trubisky is exactly the QB I thought he would be.
Prediction: Chicago 24 Denver 7 Chicago to COVER -2.5
Going for it on 4th Down.
Jacksonville @ Houston (-9)
As I've stated online, one of my season tasks is to fad the Texans each week and track the results. Last week I picked New Orleans to cover and now I'm down one unit on this. So this week we select Jacksonville to cover +9 and we'll see how it goes.
Enjoy the games however you play, or even if you don't play.
Thursday, September 12, 2019
College Football: The Week 3 FIVE
Last week was a good week at TPM central. The FIVE went 4-1, and would have gone 5-0 had Mark Stoops had an ounce of sportsmanship in his body. Instead, he had his offense throw a TD pass up 14 points with :59 seconds left to go in the game, ruining the +15.5 cover.
I hope Kentucky doesn't win another game this season.
But, that said, on to the next week, one of the worst "on paper" matchup weeks of the season FWIW. This COULD mean that we're in for a big dallop of chaos theory, or.....
The Week 3 FIVE:
1. Washington State (-9) vs. Houston [-340 & +280] {O/U 74}
This game is being played at NRG Stadium, so while it's not really a home game for Houston it is played in Houston. This helps the Coogs but probably does not detract from the Cougs as much as many people think. The home field advantage is pretty strong for Houston in the Tillman, not so much at NRG, where the overall size, and acoustics, make the crowd seem quieter. I like Wazzu here, but not enough to give them the nod. I think the play in this game is on the number.
Predication: Wazzu 52 Houston 40 OVER 74
2. Kansas State @ Mississippi State (-8) [+260 & -330] {O/U 52}
IF Bill Snyder was still the coach of K-State I'd give them a serious look, but this is now Chris Klieman's team and I'm not sure whether the shock of not being at North Dakota State has fully enveloped him or not. I think the Bulldogs are good, and have the potential to be very good. We're gong to see a little bit rather I'm correct on that assumption here.
Prediction: Kansas State 7 Mississippi State 24 MSU to COVER -8 (I also like the UNDER here but that's not a FIVE pick)
3. Georgia State @ Western Michigan (-8.5) [+260 & -330] {O/U 69.5}
One thing I like about funny week 1 results is that they can cause some weird line ripple effects that, while diminishing over time, don't really go away until the end of the season because the public can't quite get that huge upset fully out of their minds. I think this is the case here based on my analytics.
Prediction: Georgia State 10 Western Michigan 42 Western Michigan to cover -8.5
4. TCU (-2.5) @ Purdue [-145 +125] {O/U 51.5]
This is one of those games that you initially look at and say "pass" until you start forgetting all of your pre-conceived notions from the past on these two teams and just evaluate them in the moment. My numbers say the line is about right, but I'm looking at the total here. I think it's low.
Prediction: TCU 38 Purdue 42 OVER 51.5
5. Hawai'i @ Washington (-21.5) [+1000 & -2000] {O/U 58.5}
Another case where I hate the number, although there could be some Hawai'i value there, and focus instead on the number. Yes, Washington has a good defense but no one has fully stopped the Rainbow Warrior's Run N' Shoot yet. Love the Over here.
Prediction: Hawai'i 28 Washington 42 OVER 58.5
Again, there are no marquee games this weekend, unless you want to factor in El Assico, which I do, and the pre-game lines are slim pickens. That said, stay alert, because there might be in game opportunities materialize, especially on the numbers.
Good luck however you play.
I hope Kentucky doesn't win another game this season.
But, that said, on to the next week, one of the worst "on paper" matchup weeks of the season FWIW. This COULD mean that we're in for a big dallop of chaos theory, or.....
The Week 3 FIVE:
1. Washington State (-9) vs. Houston [-340 & +280] {O/U 74}
This game is being played at NRG Stadium, so while it's not really a home game for Houston it is played in Houston. This helps the Coogs but probably does not detract from the Cougs as much as many people think. The home field advantage is pretty strong for Houston in the Tillman, not so much at NRG, where the overall size, and acoustics, make the crowd seem quieter. I like Wazzu here, but not enough to give them the nod. I think the play in this game is on the number.
Predication: Wazzu 52 Houston 40 OVER 74
2. Kansas State @ Mississippi State (-8) [+260 & -330] {O/U 52}
IF Bill Snyder was still the coach of K-State I'd give them a serious look, but this is now Chris Klieman's team and I'm not sure whether the shock of not being at North Dakota State has fully enveloped him or not. I think the Bulldogs are good, and have the potential to be very good. We're gong to see a little bit rather I'm correct on that assumption here.
Prediction: Kansas State 7 Mississippi State 24 MSU to COVER -8 (I also like the UNDER here but that's not a FIVE pick)
3. Georgia State @ Western Michigan (-8.5) [+260 & -330] {O/U 69.5}
One thing I like about funny week 1 results is that they can cause some weird line ripple effects that, while diminishing over time, don't really go away until the end of the season because the public can't quite get that huge upset fully out of their minds. I think this is the case here based on my analytics.
Prediction: Georgia State 10 Western Michigan 42 Western Michigan to cover -8.5
4. TCU (-2.5) @ Purdue [-145 +125] {O/U 51.5]
This is one of those games that you initially look at and say "pass" until you start forgetting all of your pre-conceived notions from the past on these two teams and just evaluate them in the moment. My numbers say the line is about right, but I'm looking at the total here. I think it's low.
Prediction: TCU 38 Purdue 42 OVER 51.5
5. Hawai'i @ Washington (-21.5) [+1000 & -2000] {O/U 58.5}
Another case where I hate the number, although there could be some Hawai'i value there, and focus instead on the number. Yes, Washington has a good defense but no one has fully stopped the Rainbow Warrior's Run N' Shoot yet. Love the Over here.
Prediction: Hawai'i 28 Washington 42 OVER 58.5
Again, there are no marquee games this weekend, unless you want to factor in El Assico, which I do, and the pre-game lines are slim pickens. That said, stay alert, because there might be in game opportunities materialize, especially on the numbers.
Good luck however you play.
Thursday, September 5, 2019
College Football: The Week 2 FIVE
"One is the loneliest number that I've ever seen"
1 and freaking 4, that's my record from week one. I had some good picks that went wrong (Oregon) some bad picks (Fresno State and Louisiana Tech) and one replacement that I wish I could have back (eff you FIU). Thank goodness for the Holy War.
But, this is a new week and we have a new parcel of selections that you should probably ignore.
So, without further ado.....
The Week 2 FIVE:
1. Rutgers @ Iowa (-20) [+950 & -1800] {O/U 49.5}
Crunching the numbers I think that Iowa is a much, much better team than Rutgers here. Especially at home. Yes, I know they struggled in week one but a LOT of teams struggle in week one. I expect Iowa to score early and often and to cover this number fairly easily.
Prediction: Rutgers 10 Iowa 45 (Iowa to COVER -20)
2. Army @ Michigan (-22) [+1000 & -2000] {O/U 47.5}
In a first for me I'm putting my beloved Wolverines in the FIVE, AND I'm picking against them. I was not impressed with what I saw last week against MTSU. Of course, Army wasn't that impressive either but I think the triple option is going to give Big Blue's defense fits. I think Michigan wins, but I think it takes many bourbons (on my part) before they get there.
Prediction: Army 21 Michigan 35 (Army to COVER +22)
3. Coastal Carolina @ Kansas (-7.5) [+250 & -300] {O/U 54.5}
I will admit to getting a little nervous when putting a game between two not very good teams in my FIVE, but I think this one is CLOSE, coming down to a FG at the end. Les Miles goes an ugly 2-0.
Prediction: Coastal Carolina 14 Kansas 17 (Coastal Carolina to COVER -7.5)
4. Eastern Michigan @ Kentucky (-15) [+500 & -700] {O/U 53.5}
Death, taxes and Eastern Michigan keeping it close. This team might not win a ton, but they're always in a dogfight, and there's evidence that Kentucky and most of the SEC East might be gawd-awful this year.
Prediction: Eastern Michigan 17 Kentucky 20 (EMU to COVER -15)
5. Arkansas State @ UNLV (-1.5) [+105 & -125] {O/U 62.5}
My numbers have Arkansas State as the better team, even taking into consideration the HFA of UNLV (which I rank as smaller than the average). In other games I'm calling for covers, in this game I'm calling the mild upset.
Prediction: Arkansas State 24 UNLV 20 (Arkansas State to WIN on the ML)
College football takes off Thursday to give the Stage to the NFL. OK, whatever, but they come back with a pretty solid game in Marshall at Boise State on Friday, before the ONE THAT EVERYONE IS WAITING FOR (OK, not everyone) when Texas aTm goes to face Clemson, IN Death Valley. Then there's the night cap LSU at Texas, and remember when Stanford at USC used to mean something? It's the battle of the backup QBs now.
As is usual you're going to find some gems sprinkled among the diamond games. The fun of college football is that they could be games where you least expect them.
Good luck this week, have fun watching the games.
1 and freaking 4, that's my record from week one. I had some good picks that went wrong (Oregon) some bad picks (Fresno State and Louisiana Tech) and one replacement that I wish I could have back (eff you FIU). Thank goodness for the Holy War.
But, this is a new week and we have a new parcel of selections that you should probably ignore.
So, without further ado.....
The Week 2 FIVE:
1. Rutgers @ Iowa (-20) [+950 & -1800] {O/U 49.5}
Crunching the numbers I think that Iowa is a much, much better team than Rutgers here. Especially at home. Yes, I know they struggled in week one but a LOT of teams struggle in week one. I expect Iowa to score early and often and to cover this number fairly easily.
Prediction: Rutgers 10 Iowa 45 (Iowa to COVER -20)
2. Army @ Michigan (-22) [+1000 & -2000] {O/U 47.5}
In a first for me I'm putting my beloved Wolverines in the FIVE, AND I'm picking against them. I was not impressed with what I saw last week against MTSU. Of course, Army wasn't that impressive either but I think the triple option is going to give Big Blue's defense fits. I think Michigan wins, but I think it takes many bourbons (on my part) before they get there.
Prediction: Army 21 Michigan 35 (Army to COVER +22)
3. Coastal Carolina @ Kansas (-7.5) [+250 & -300] {O/U 54.5}
I will admit to getting a little nervous when putting a game between two not very good teams in my FIVE, but I think this one is CLOSE, coming down to a FG at the end. Les Miles goes an ugly 2-0.
Prediction: Coastal Carolina 14 Kansas 17 (Coastal Carolina to COVER -7.5)
4. Eastern Michigan @ Kentucky (-15) [+500 & -700] {O/U 53.5}
Death, taxes and Eastern Michigan keeping it close. This team might not win a ton, but they're always in a dogfight, and there's evidence that Kentucky and most of the SEC East might be gawd-awful this year.
Prediction: Eastern Michigan 17 Kentucky 20 (EMU to COVER -15)
5. Arkansas State @ UNLV (-1.5) [+105 & -125] {O/U 62.5}
My numbers have Arkansas State as the better team, even taking into consideration the HFA of UNLV (which I rank as smaller than the average). In other games I'm calling for covers, in this game I'm calling the mild upset.
Prediction: Arkansas State 24 UNLV 20 (Arkansas State to WIN on the ML)
College football takes off Thursday to give the Stage to the NFL. OK, whatever, but they come back with a pretty solid game in Marshall at Boise State on Friday, before the ONE THAT EVERYONE IS WAITING FOR (OK, not everyone) when Texas aTm goes to face Clemson, IN Death Valley. Then there's the night cap LSU at Texas, and remember when Stanford at USC used to mean something? It's the battle of the backup QBs now.
As is usual you're going to find some gems sprinkled among the diamond games. The fun of college football is that they could be games where you least expect them.
Good luck this week, have fun watching the games.
Tuesday, September 3, 2019
One thought on the Texans mess.
For a long time now I've used the hashtag #Bad[Insert thing here] as a general comment on all things that are stupid, silly or just plain awful. A lot of my Twitter tagging of #BadSports content has been in relation to the Texans.
But I haven't used that in response to the trades that went down over the weekend because it just seems so obvious that we're dealing with a #BadSports situation here.
Two trades, both unbalanced in the favor of the other team. You got too little back for Clowney and gave up too much for Tunsil and Stills. What is the potential of TWO first round draft picks?
How about JJ Watt and DeAndre Hopkins?
OK, that's an extreme example but still, if there's one thing the Texans have done a pretty good job of as a franchise it's hitting on first round picks. It's the rest of the rounds in the draft where they've struggled, which is why their roster is a wreck outside of a few key stars.
Still, getting Tunsil on-board does, finally, provide Watson with some protection, but there are four other positions on that offensive line and it's not very clear that any of the people manning them is going to be all that great. Tunsil will help, and it's much needed help, but he really only makes the offense marginally better while on defense you've gotten significantly worse.
Remember the vaunted pass-rush that was supposed to help a woeful secondary? Yeah, that narrative pretty much got blown out of the water. JJ Watt is great, but no man is an island and he needs help, especially when you consider that now all of the double teams that Clowney absorbed are going to be redistributed to #99.
Who else on this defense is worthy of a double-team?
The line from the team is that they're worried about this year and that they'll worry about the dearth of draft picks after the season, a line that's been parroted by aging, increasingly less insightful, Houston Chronicle columnist John McClain.
You might really be worried about it when you're trying to find a new GM, who looks at your upcoming draft equity and says "Thanks, but no thanks"
Still, and this is the truth, if the Texans win this season, and make a decent run in the playoffs, all will probably be forgiven. One thing this does ensure is that Texans fans, who seem content on supporting one of the worst franchises in football, will be there in droves for the home opener, hearts full of love and minds full of optimism for the boys in deep steel blue (or whatever the heck they call their colors).
If they lose however, all bets are off.
But I haven't used that in response to the trades that went down over the weekend because it just seems so obvious that we're dealing with a #BadSports situation here.
Two trades, both unbalanced in the favor of the other team. You got too little back for Clowney and gave up too much for Tunsil and Stills. What is the potential of TWO first round draft picks?
How about JJ Watt and DeAndre Hopkins?
OK, that's an extreme example but still, if there's one thing the Texans have done a pretty good job of as a franchise it's hitting on first round picks. It's the rest of the rounds in the draft where they've struggled, which is why their roster is a wreck outside of a few key stars.
Still, getting Tunsil on-board does, finally, provide Watson with some protection, but there are four other positions on that offensive line and it's not very clear that any of the people manning them is going to be all that great. Tunsil will help, and it's much needed help, but he really only makes the offense marginally better while on defense you've gotten significantly worse.
Remember the vaunted pass-rush that was supposed to help a woeful secondary? Yeah, that narrative pretty much got blown out of the water. JJ Watt is great, but no man is an island and he needs help, especially when you consider that now all of the double teams that Clowney absorbed are going to be redistributed to #99.
Who else on this defense is worthy of a double-team?
The line from the team is that they're worried about this year and that they'll worry about the dearth of draft picks after the season, a line that's been parroted by aging, increasingly less insightful, Houston Chronicle columnist John McClain.
You might really be worried about it when you're trying to find a new GM, who looks at your upcoming draft equity and says "Thanks, but no thanks"
Still, and this is the truth, if the Texans win this season, and make a decent run in the playoffs, all will probably be forgiven. One thing this does ensure is that Texans fans, who seem content on supporting one of the worst franchises in football, will be there in droves for the home opener, hearts full of love and minds full of optimism for the boys in deep steel blue (or whatever the heck they call their colors).
If they lose however, all bets are off.
The Week One FIVE recap: Paaaiiin.
That was not the start we were looking for.
But, a start it was, a 1-4 start, which would have been 2-3 had I not gotten cold feet and scratched out Boise State, replacing it with FIU who I honestly thought would be better. Instead, I was on the wrong side of an ass-whuppin.
Still, it's a long season and the game is to have a positive ROI over the year, not just one week.
I started off strong in the Holy War, thought I had it nailed with Oregon, and then well...it just wasn't pretty.
Kudos to UT-Austin for being much better than I thought they would be, at least against La Tech, and to USC for actually looking competent. I seem to do this every year, weigh down my Week 1 FIVE with predictions of bold upsets, putting myself in a hole looking up. But, I've come back before and it only takes one good week to get right back on the beam.
Some interesting football and gaming notes this year:
Circa Sports Book has dedicated themselves to being the first poster on college football lines this year. In fact, they posted the week 2 lines on Sunday morning, and have already seen significant movement. Between them, South Point and the Superbook it's refreshing to see actual bookmaking still exists in Las Vegas. Post the lines, take the bets, move the lines accordingly. Love it and I know where all of my sports wagering dollars are going in the future.
Currently Michigan is sitting as a 23 point favorite over Army. I have NEVER listed Michigan in my FIVE, nor have I ever placed a live bet on them. That might change this week and it could be me placing a bet AGAINST my favorite team. I typically pull the lines for the FIVE on Wednesday, so we'll see how it moves.
I am not yet in football-watching season shape. Saturday night I petered out just after halftime of the USC/Fresno State game, marking the first Saturday in quite a while that I didn't stay up to watch the last game.
Finally, as a (soon to be former) U-Verse customer, I'm now in a world minus the Pac-12 Network, the ACC Network, and NFL Network. As a fan of football this is untenable and I'm probably going to be switching over to streaming before the season is out.
Next week is coming soon, good luck handicapping.
But, a start it was, a 1-4 start, which would have been 2-3 had I not gotten cold feet and scratched out Boise State, replacing it with FIU who I honestly thought would be better. Instead, I was on the wrong side of an ass-whuppin.
Still, it's a long season and the game is to have a positive ROI over the year, not just one week.
I started off strong in the Holy War, thought I had it nailed with Oregon, and then well...it just wasn't pretty.
Kudos to UT-Austin for being much better than I thought they would be, at least against La Tech, and to USC for actually looking competent. I seem to do this every year, weigh down my Week 1 FIVE with predictions of bold upsets, putting myself in a hole looking up. But, I've come back before and it only takes one good week to get right back on the beam.
Some interesting football and gaming notes this year:
Circa Sports Book has dedicated themselves to being the first poster on college football lines this year. In fact, they posted the week 2 lines on Sunday morning, and have already seen significant movement. Between them, South Point and the Superbook it's refreshing to see actual bookmaking still exists in Las Vegas. Post the lines, take the bets, move the lines accordingly. Love it and I know where all of my sports wagering dollars are going in the future.
Currently Michigan is sitting as a 23 point favorite over Army. I have NEVER listed Michigan in my FIVE, nor have I ever placed a live bet on them. That might change this week and it could be me placing a bet AGAINST my favorite team. I typically pull the lines for the FIVE on Wednesday, so we'll see how it moves.
I am not yet in football-watching season shape. Saturday night I petered out just after halftime of the USC/Fresno State game, marking the first Saturday in quite a while that I didn't stay up to watch the last game.
Finally, as a (soon to be former) U-Verse customer, I'm now in a world minus the Pac-12 Network, the ACC Network, and NFL Network. As a fan of football this is untenable and I'm probably going to be switching over to streaming before the season is out.
Next week is coming soon, good luck handicapping.
Monday, August 26, 2019
College Football 2019: You are Looking Live At the Week One FIVE
And....we're back.
Yes, I took a hiatus after the Belmont and have had a good, productive Summer season just kind of beating around the sports bushes, and not blogging much at all or anything of the sort. I just returned from a Vegas trip and I'm refreshed and ready to attack the 2019 college football season head-on.
I'm ready, and willing, to throw out predictions (again) for your amusement, and entertainment.
We begin this version of the FIVE with the usual disclaimer(s)....
1. This is NOT a listing of my REAL LIFE bets. Nor is it meant to be construed as any offer that I'm making as to the worthiness of certain bets.
2. These are predictions, they're fun, and I enjoy analyzing the games. I will be attempting to track results in real time on Capped In, but just because a game is in my FIVE doesn't mean that I actually have action on it. In many (most) cases, I will not have anything at stake in these games.
3. If you're looking to a free gambling blog authored by an accountant for your betting advice please, go GET HELP before it's too late for you.
My selections are worth EXACTLY what you paid for them.
So, without further ado.......The Week 1 FIVE
1. Utah (-5) @ BYU [-200 & +175] {O/U 60}
The big question in this game is whether or not you believe that Utah is worthy of all the hype. This is the Holy War and it can get testy, and it can be an amazing game. I think Utah is the real deal this year and a team that could find themselves in the Pac-12 Championship game. But I still think BYU keeps it close
Prediction: UTAH 27 BYU 10. [Utah to cover -5 and the UNDER]
2. Fresno State (+13.5) @ USC (-13.5) [+430 & -560] {O/U 53}
I think it's going to be very easy for sharp bettors to fade USC this year. The team is coming off a disastrous 5-7 campaign and there's probably no coach on a hotter seat than Clay Helton. But I don't think anyone expects it to start off as poorly as I think it might. USC is trying to become West Coast Texas Tech without an offensive line. Jeff Tedford's defensive front 7 at Fresno State is very, very good. USC is in trouble here, big trouble.
Prediction: Fresno State 24 USC 14. [Fresno State to WIN on the ML]
3. Boise State (+5.5) @ Florida State (-5.5) [+185 & -220] {O/U 53.5}
Boise State tries to make another run at being the best Group of Five team in the country only to find themselves outraged and flustered by the system when they get overlooked and ignored by the CFP committee come selection time. While Willie Taggart is catching a LOT of heat for the Seminole's woes I don't think there's ever been a full understanding surrounding just how dysfunctional of a mess Jimbo Fischer left behind.
Prediction: Boise State 38 Florida State 24 [Boise State to WIN on the ML]
3. Florida International (+3) @Tulane (-3) [+130 & -150] {O/U 58}
My analytics have FIU as the slightly better team even AFTER the HFA is taken into consideration. Because of this I'm backing a rare C-USA team over an AAC side this game. Normally I'd have stuck with Boise State and Florida State but I just can't keep that one up after all of the changes to the game. This game was the first one out, now it's the last one in.
Prediction: FIU 27 Tulane 24 [FIU to WIN on the ML]
4. Oregon (+3.5) @ Auburn (-3.5) [+140 & -160] {O/U 56}
I always get nervous when thinking about pulling the trigger on a PAC-12 team beating almost any other power conference team, especially a good one like Auburn. But I just think Duck head coach Mario Cristobal is putting together something really good in Eugene and this year could be the one that it all comes together.
Prediction: Oregon 24 Auburn 21 [Oregon to WIN on the ML]
5. Louisiana Tech (+20.5) @ Texas (-20.5) [+800 & -1450] {O/U 55}
This line opened at -18 and has been flying toward UT-Austin ever since then. As a matter of fact, WERE I going to bet this I'd probably wait until it went to 21 or (even better) 21.5. I think it will get there. Either way I'll update the lines prior to game time on this game because I think the number is that important. Do I think La Tech has a real chance to upset the Longhorns? No, but I do think their defense (especially the DBs) keep it closer than everyone seems to think.
Prediction: La Tech 24 UT-Austin: 30 [La Tech to Cover +20.5)
I realize that I've picked a ton of dogs, but that's what the FIVE is really for, massive upsets for the most part and a few favorites that I think are undervalued. Here are some other games I've considered and the one game where I have a rooting interest.
Alternate 1: UCLA +3 @ Cincinnati -3 [+135 & -155] {O/U 60} - We'll see what UCLA is bringing to the table this year. I think Chip Kelley's team is going to be much better than everyone thinks. I wouldn't be surprised to see them pull the (mild) upset here.
Alternate 2: Houston +20.5 @ OU -20.5 [+1100 & -2800] {O/U 82.5} - The first game of the Dana Holgerson era is a rough one. I think Houston has the athletes to keep is closer than 3 touchdowns, but I'm not willing to put actual money on it.
And, finally.....
Middle Tennessee State University +33.5 @ Michigan -33.5 [+2200 & -12050] {O/U 53.5} - I think you have to be drinking a little Michigan kool-aid to find this number in this game, but I've been accused (rightfully) of enjoying a big ol' glass of Big Blue kool-aid in the past and this year is probably no better. GO BLUE!!!
Good luck however you play and enjoy watching the first full week of college football!!!
Yes, I took a hiatus after the Belmont and have had a good, productive Summer season just kind of beating around the sports bushes, and not blogging much at all or anything of the sort. I just returned from a Vegas trip and I'm refreshed and ready to attack the 2019 college football season head-on.
I'm ready, and willing, to throw out predictions (again) for your amusement, and entertainment.
We begin this version of the FIVE with the usual disclaimer(s)....
1. This is NOT a listing of my REAL LIFE bets. Nor is it meant to be construed as any offer that I'm making as to the worthiness of certain bets.
2. These are predictions, they're fun, and I enjoy analyzing the games. I will be attempting to track results in real time on Capped In, but just because a game is in my FIVE doesn't mean that I actually have action on it. In many (most) cases, I will not have anything at stake in these games.
3. If you're looking to a free gambling blog authored by an accountant for your betting advice please, go GET HELP before it's too late for you.
My selections are worth EXACTLY what you paid for them.
So, without further ado.......The Week 1 FIVE
1. Utah (-5) @ BYU [-200 & +175] {O/U 60}
The big question in this game is whether or not you believe that Utah is worthy of all the hype. This is the Holy War and it can get testy, and it can be an amazing game. I think Utah is the real deal this year and a team that could find themselves in the Pac-12 Championship game. But I still think BYU keeps it close
Prediction: UTAH 27 BYU 10. [Utah to cover -5 and the UNDER]
2. Fresno State (+13.5) @ USC (-13.5) [+430 & -560] {O/U 53}
I think it's going to be very easy for sharp bettors to fade USC this year. The team is coming off a disastrous 5-7 campaign and there's probably no coach on a hotter seat than Clay Helton. But I don't think anyone expects it to start off as poorly as I think it might. USC is trying to become West Coast Texas Tech without an offensive line. Jeff Tedford's defensive front 7 at Fresno State is very, very good. USC is in trouble here, big trouble.
Prediction: Fresno State 24 USC 14. [Fresno State to WIN on the ML]
Boise State tries to make another run at being the best Group of Five team in the country only to find themselves outraged and flustered by the system when they get overlooked and ignored by the CFP committee come selection time. While Willie Taggart is catching a LOT of heat for the Seminole's woes I don't think there's ever been a full understanding surrounding just how dysfunctional of a mess Jimbo Fischer left behind.
3. Florida International (+3) @Tulane (-3) [+130 & -150] {O/U 58}
My analytics have FIU as the slightly better team even AFTER the HFA is taken into consideration. Because of this I'm backing a rare C-USA team over an AAC side this game. Normally I'd have stuck with Boise State and Florida State but I just can't keep that one up after all of the changes to the game. This game was the first one out, now it's the last one in.
Prediction: FIU 27 Tulane 24 [FIU to WIN on the ML]
4. Oregon (+3.5) @ Auburn (-3.5) [+140 & -160] {O/U 56}
I always get nervous when thinking about pulling the trigger on a PAC-12 team beating almost any other power conference team, especially a good one like Auburn. But I just think Duck head coach Mario Cristobal is putting together something really good in Eugene and this year could be the one that it all comes together.
Prediction: Oregon 24 Auburn 21 [Oregon to WIN on the ML]
5. Louisiana Tech (+20.5) @ Texas (-20.5) [+800 & -1450] {O/U 55}
This line opened at -18 and has been flying toward UT-Austin ever since then. As a matter of fact, WERE I going to bet this I'd probably wait until it went to 21 or (even better) 21.5. I think it will get there. Either way I'll update the lines prior to game time on this game because I think the number is that important. Do I think La Tech has a real chance to upset the Longhorns? No, but I do think their defense (especially the DBs) keep it closer than everyone seems to think.
Prediction: La Tech 24 UT-Austin: 30 [La Tech to Cover +20.5)
I realize that I've picked a ton of dogs, but that's what the FIVE is really for, massive upsets for the most part and a few favorites that I think are undervalued. Here are some other games I've considered and the one game where I have a rooting interest.
Alternate 1: UCLA +3 @ Cincinnati -3 [+135 & -155] {O/U 60} - We'll see what UCLA is bringing to the table this year. I think Chip Kelley's team is going to be much better than everyone thinks. I wouldn't be surprised to see them pull the (mild) upset here.
Alternate 2: Houston +20.5 @ OU -20.5 [+1100 & -2800] {O/U 82.5} - The first game of the Dana Holgerson era is a rough one. I think Houston has the athletes to keep is closer than 3 touchdowns, but I'm not willing to put actual money on it.
And, finally.....
Middle Tennessee State University +33.5 @ Michigan -33.5 [+2200 & -12050] {O/U 53.5} - I think you have to be drinking a little Michigan kool-aid to find this number in this game, but I've been accused (rightfully) of enjoying a big ol' glass of Big Blue kool-aid in the past and this year is probably no better. GO BLUE!!!
Good luck however you play and enjoy watching the first full week of college football!!!
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