Kentucky Derby 2018: Still more changes to the list of Derby Hopefuls

Here's the new order after some trainers informed the media their horses are off the trail:

   1.       Magnum Moon
   2.       Good Magic
   3.       Audible
   4.       Noble Indy
   5.       Vino Rosso
   6.       Bolt D’Oro
   7.       Enticed
   8.       Mendelssohn
   9.       Justify
   10.   Flameaway
   11.   Solomini
   12.   Bravazo
   13.   My Boy Jack
   14.   Promises Fulfilled
   15.   Free Drop Billy
   16.   Lone Sailor
   17.   Hofburg
   18.   Firenze Fire
   19.   Combatant
   20.   Instilled Regard
   21.   Blended Citizen
   22.   Dream Baby Dream
   23.   Restoring Hope
   24.   Sporting Chance
   25.   Greyvitos
   26.   Givemeaminut
   27.   Pony Up
   28.   Machismo

The biggest news here is the withdrawal of Gronkowski, who was IN the Derby due to European qualification but who suffered an injury during training then developed a fever after treatment.  So he's out, and Instilled Regard is in.  Blended Citizen now becomes the "next horse up" as Snapper Sinclair's trainer Steve Asmussen announced that he's taking a freshening and will be out of the Derby mix.  Also taking a break (and possibly pointing to the Preakness) is Reride.

I still think we have one or more horses whose connections take a look at it all and decide to forego racing on the First Saturday in May but you never know.

Right now we're still dealing with a heck of a field.

   

NFL 2018: How The Offshore books see it.

More important than the release of the schedules (non-event) or the breathless announcement of the prime-time games (that fewer and fewer are watching) are the official releases of the number lines for win totals for the various NFL teams.

From a strength of schedule standpoint this is a MUCH better option than relying on 2017 team records, as most do.  However, even at this point it's not a perfect system due to the fact that the NFL draft starts on Thursday.

All of that said, here are the O/U win total numbers as first released be the offshore book 5Dimes*.

American Football Conference				National Football Conference
East		Projection		East		Projection
New England		11.5		Philadelphia		10.5
Miami		7		Dallas		9
Buffalo		6.5		Washington		7
New York Jets		5		New York Giants		6
North				North
Pittsburgh		10.5		Green Bay		10
Baltimore		8.5		Minnesota		9.5
Cincinnati		7		Detroit		8
Cleveland		4.5		Chicago		6.5
South				South
Jacksonville		8.5		New Orleans		9.5
Houston		8.5		Atlanta		9
Tennessee		7.5		Carolina		9
Indianapolis Colts		5.5		Tampa Bay		6.5
West				West
Kansas City		9		Los Angeles Rams		9.5
Los Angeles Chargers		8		San Francisco		9
Oakland		8		Seattle		9
Denver		7		Arizona		6.5

*On a funny note, when searching for these numbers I ran across this Houston Chronicle article calling these "Las Vegas Lines". They're not, of course, they're from an offshore book. Granted, Las Vegas uses the offshore lines in setting theirs, but we don't really have any "Las Vegas Lines" out yet (at the time of this publication)  It might help getting someone on staff that understands sports wagering before attempting to report on it Chron.

Kentucky Derby 2018: Early thoughts.

With today's news that Quip will sit out the Derby and wait for the Preakness, as well as the news that Gronkowski suffered an injury in training and might be out, the final field for the 2018 Kentucky Derby on May 5th is starting to take it's final shape.

Here are the top contenders as of now: (ranked in Derby Qualifying Points order)

   1.       Magnum Moon

   2.       Good Magic

   3.       Audible

   4.       Noble Indy

   5.       Vino Rosso

   6.       Bolt D’Oro

   7.       Enticed

   8.       Mendelssohn

   9.       Justify

   10.   Flameaway

   11.   Solomini

   12.   Bravazo

   13.   My Boy Jack

   14.   Promises Fulfilled

   15.   Free Drop Billy

   16.   Lone Sailor

   17.   Hofburg

   18.   Firenze Fire

   19.   Combatant

   20.   Gronkowski (injured in training, might miss)

   21.   Instilled Regard

   22.   Snapper Sinclair

   23.   Blended Citizen

   24.   Reride

   25.   Dream Baby Dream

   26.   Restoring Hope

   As is usual, we won't know the final numbers on the 20 horses running for the first jewel in the Triple  Crown until the end of this week, and then we won't know the true odds until the post draw on May  2nd.  Remember that Post 1 is death, as are posts 18-20.

   Other than that I have a few horses that I'm keying on, and will be taking a very close look at come  Derby Day...

   1. Justify - I think he's the class of the field but the class of the field doesn't usually win when 20 horses  are involved.

   2. Mendelssohn - Maybe the best horse to come from the UAE ever.  Can he win though?

   3. Audible - Very good. Good enough?

   4. Good Magic - The undefeated 2 year old champion is a great horse. Don't like his running style for the  Derby however.

   5. Flameaway - Pending the post draw, this will probably be my "long shot horse".

   6. Vino Rosso - I like this horse more than most. He's the training partner of Audible and has looked  great in works and recent races.

   7. Bolt D'Oro - I think he might be the most talented colt in the field.

   We'll learn a lot more in the coming days but one thing is for certain: This is the most compelling field to  come along in a few years. It should be a great race.

   One thing I do believe is this: IF Justify wins Baffert might be looking at another Triple Crown winner.   Think Arrogate but he blossomed a little earlier.