Kentucky Derby 2018: Early thoughts.

With today's news that Quip will sit out the Derby and wait for the Preakness, as well as the news that Gronkowski suffered an injury in training and might be out, the final field for the 2018 Kentucky Derby on May 5th is starting to take it's final shape.

Here are the top contenders as of now: (ranked in Derby Qualifying Points order)

   1.       Magnum Moon

   2.       Good Magic

   3.       Audible

   4.       Noble Indy

   5.       Vino Rosso

   6.       Bolt D’Oro

   7.       Enticed

   8.       Mendelssohn

   9.       Justify

   10.   Flameaway

   11.   Solomini

   12.   Bravazo

   13.   My Boy Jack

   14.   Promises Fulfilled

   15.   Free Drop Billy

   16.   Lone Sailor

   17.   Hofburg

   18.   Firenze Fire

   19.   Combatant

   20.   Gronkowski (injured in training, might miss)

   21.   Instilled Regard

   22.   Snapper Sinclair

   23.   Blended Citizen

   24.   Reride

   25.   Dream Baby Dream

   26.   Restoring Hope

   As is usual, we won't know the final numbers on the 20 horses running for the first jewel in the Triple  Crown until the end of this week, and then we won't know the true odds until the post draw on May  2nd.  Remember that Post 1 is death, as are posts 18-20.

   Other than that I have a few horses that I'm keying on, and will be taking a very close look at come  Derby Day...

   1. Justify - I think he's the class of the field but the class of the field doesn't usually win when 20 horses  are involved.

   2. Mendelssohn - Maybe the best horse to come from the UAE ever.  Can he win though?

   3. Audible - Very good. Good enough?

   4. Good Magic - The undefeated 2 year old champion is a great horse. Don't like his running style for the  Derby however.

   5. Flameaway - Pending the post draw, this will probably be my "long shot horse".

   6. Vino Rosso - I like this horse more than most. He's the training partner of Audible and has looked  great in works and recent races.

   7. Bolt D'Oro - I think he might be the most talented colt in the field.

   We'll learn a lot more in the coming days but one thing is for certain: This is the most compelling field to  come along in a few years. It should be a great race.

   One thing I do believe is this: IF Justify wins Baffert might be looking at another Triple Crown winner.   Think Arrogate but he blossomed a little earlier.