Continuing the best part of the horse racing calendar is this one, the 2018 West Virginia Derby. One of my favorite races to watch, and bet, it runs 1 1/8th miles over the dirt track at Mountaineer. It's sometimes shrouded by the Whitney, but it shouldn't be, because it always boasts a strong, evenly matched field which makes for some interesting betting angles.
Here are my thoughts of the entries, with post positions, M/L Odds, jockeys and trainers listed.
1. Lionite (David Cabrera/Steve Asmussen) [12-1] - This son of Quality Road might have had his best races as a 2-yr old, but trainer Steve Asmussen is hoping he hasn't. His biggest win was the ungraded Prairie Mile but he's struggled to compete in his last two races, finishing 7th in an Allowance race at Churchill Downs, although he did run a solid third in the Iowa Derby on July 6th. Asmussen has had success at this track, but this one will need to improve mightily to contend. Plus, not a fan of his inside post draw. Pass.
2. Draft Pick (Joe Talamo/Peter Eurton) [5-2] - This WAS your Los Alamitos Derby winner until Once on Whiskey came driving down the stretch to beat him by a nose. Possibly forgotten in all of that was the fact that this horse soundly beat Ax Man, who was considered a potential Top 5 horse in his class at the time. The good news for Draft Pick is that the pace in this race seems as if it's going to be a LOT slower, which means that he might have enough in the tank to hold off Once on Whiskey this time around. Not my key horse here, but he'll play a HUGE role in all of my wagering. I'll be watching the odds to see if he's playable straight up or not right up until post time.
3. Caloric (Ricardo Meijas/Odin Londono Jr.) [25-1] - There was a time that this horse built up a pretty good buzz. He won two claiming races in a row and appeared to be ready to compete with the top horses in this year's 3yo class. But then he bombed, finishing a way-back 7th in the Tampa Bay Derby, 4th in the Tom Ridge and an uninspiring 7th in the Ohio Derby. He'll have to prove me wrong to win here, because I'm passing on him, won't even be included at the bottom of my exotics.
4. King Cause (Julien Laparoux/Doug O'Neill) [20-1] - Yet another horse where I'm struggling to come up with a case for him winning. He's been atrocious when facing similar competition, including finishing next to last in the Lazarro Barrera Stakes, the Affirmed and the Los Alamitos Derby. I think he needs a big improvement just to qualify for the bottom of my exotics. Full pass on this one. If he beats me, then I'm wrong.
5. Once on Whiskey (Flavian Prat/Bob Baffert) [2-1] - One of the pure closers that I frequently bet on, I typically like a horse that can rate some. But Once on Whiskey has a great late move that served him well against a hot pace in the Los Alamitos, and might let him down here. My hope is that he sucks up all of the money leaving better odds below. Still, you'd be a fool to not include him in your exotics.
6. Rugbyman (Jorge Vargas Jr./Graham Motion) [8-1] - I can see a scenario where Rugbyman emerges victorious in this race. In fact, to me it's the most likely scenario. He ran 2nd in the Prince Lucky in June and then 4th in the Dwyer behind Firenze Fire, Seven Trumpets and Mendelssohn. His biggest win was his maiden win, by 14 1/2 lengths at Belmont. IF he can show a little improvement I think he rates off the front and holds off a hard charging Once on Whiskey. I'm hoping he climbs a little in the odds to make him my upset pick for this race.
7. Pamir (Luis Quinones/Pavel Vaschenko) [30-1] - The local horse. A horse who have never ran against Stakes company and has ran all three of his lifetime races at Mountaineer. He broke his maiden and then crossed the line 2nd in an allowance before winning by DQ. Look, he'll be the favorite of the local crowd but I honestly think he'll be battling for last in this race. If anything Quinones might try to take him out quickly but I don't think he's got what he needs to compete here.
8. High North (Florent Giroux/Brad Cox [9-2] - In every race there is a "sharp" horse that tends to take most of the play from those "in the know". I think for the West Virginia Derby that horse is going to be High North. He's coming off a win in the un-graded Ohio Derby (where he beat Lionite and Mr. Freeze) and he did win the Northern Spur, albeit over lesser company. Expect everyone to say he's got "the best chance to pull an upset" here but I think that honor truly lies elsewhere. He'll factor into the bottom of my exotics but I don't see using him anywhere else.
Picks: 5-2-6-8
Bets: We'll decide that on race day when the odds have a chance to settle a tad.
Tuesday, July 31, 2018
Quick Thoughts: NBA/MGM Gaming Deal.
The MGM can market itself as the "Official Betting Partner" of the NBA
NBA Signs deal with MGM. ESPN.com
The deal itself is for a reported $25 Million over 3 years. Per the article above it allows MGM-ran sports books to use league logos, highlights and names, have access to their direct data feeds as well as the above-mentioned marketing opportunities.
Good for both parties.
To this fan/blogger, this seems like a preferable way for the leagues to capitalize on gaming revenues, through contracts, than relying on statutory 'gaming taxes' which the leagues laughably referred to as "integrity fees" in the past.
Not that the leagues will stop trying to force states to pay them money for legalized gaming, after all the goal is to increase revenue, not to ensure integrity, but they should have more success signing deals with the individual books allowing them to utilize their trademarks and intellectual property than they will trying to coerce states to give them money. In many cases, the States are no friends with the leagues due to the latter's tireless efforts to block their issuance of sports bets in the first place.
I would imagine the big fish in these negotiations is going to be the NFL and, if they decide to get on board, the NCAA (or, more likely, the individual conferences/teams etc.) with Major League Baseball and the National Hockey League taking up the rear. It's also possible that the European Soccer Leagues (sans Italy) might benefit from this as well.
I think this is a good deal for both the league and MGM and hope to see more of the same from the other leagues, which would be a much more sensible way to address this issue going forward.
NBA Signs deal with MGM. ESPN.com
The deal itself is for a reported $25 Million over 3 years. Per the article above it allows MGM-ran sports books to use league logos, highlights and names, have access to their direct data feeds as well as the above-mentioned marketing opportunities.
Good for both parties.
To this fan/blogger, this seems like a preferable way for the leagues to capitalize on gaming revenues, through contracts, than relying on statutory 'gaming taxes' which the leagues laughably referred to as "integrity fees" in the past.
Not that the leagues will stop trying to force states to pay them money for legalized gaming, after all the goal is to increase revenue, not to ensure integrity, but they should have more success signing deals with the individual books allowing them to utilize their trademarks and intellectual property than they will trying to coerce states to give them money. In many cases, the States are no friends with the leagues due to the latter's tireless efforts to block their issuance of sports bets in the first place.
I would imagine the big fish in these negotiations is going to be the NFL and, if they decide to get on board, the NCAA (or, more likely, the individual conferences/teams etc.) with Major League Baseball and the National Hockey League taking up the rear. It's also possible that the European Soccer Leagues (sans Italy) might benefit from this as well.
I think this is a good deal for both the league and MGM and hope to see more of the same from the other leagues, which would be a much more sensible way to address this issue going forward.
College Football 2018 Season Preview (Big XII)
The more things change, the more they stay the same.
In basketball Kansas is the 800 lb gorilla in the Big XII Conference and in football, it's Oklahoma.
Though not from Missouri I'm a big believer in teams proving to me they can upset the champ before picking them to do so, barring scandal or tragedy obviously.
Oklahoma has faced neither of the two in the off-season, restocking at key positions where the draft took a toll and rolling out Texas A&M Transfer Kyler Murray at QB to take over the reins from Heisman Trophy winner Baker Mayfield. As such, still being the team with the most talent, I have Oklahoma repeating AGAIN, as Big XII Champions.
Here's how I see this playing out:
In basketball Kansas is the 800 lb gorilla in the Big XII Conference and in football, it's Oklahoma.
Though not from Missouri I'm a big believer in teams proving to me they can upset the champ before picking them to do so, barring scandal or tragedy obviously.
Oklahoma has faced neither of the two in the off-season, restocking at key positions where the draft took a toll and rolling out Texas A&M Transfer Kyler Murray at QB to take over the reins from Heisman Trophy winner Baker Mayfield. As such, still being the team with the most talent, I have Oklahoma repeating AGAIN, as Big XII Champions.
Here's how I see this playing out:
| Conference Standings: | ||||
| Overall | Conference | |||
| Teams (No divisions) | W | L | W | L |
| Oklahoma | 11 | 1 | 8 | 1 |
| Texas | 10 | 2 | 7 | 2 |
| TCU | 9 | 3 | 7 | 2 |
| Oklahoma State | 9 | 3 | 7 | 2 |
| West Virginia | 8 | 4 | 5 | 4 |
| Kansas State | 5 | 7 | 4 | 5 |
| Baylor | 5 | 7 | 3 | 6 |
| Texas Tech | 5 | 7 | 2 | 7 |
| Iowa State | 4 | 8 | 2 | 7 |
| Kansas | 2 | 10 | 0 | 9 |
| Championship: | Oklahoma over Texas | |||
| Bowl Teams: | 5 | |||
| CFP: | None | |||
| Big Six | Oklahoma | |||
| CFP 2: | None | |||
| Big Six 2: | None | |||
| Others: | Texas | |||
| TCU | ||||
| Oklahoma State | ||||
| West Virginia | ||||
| Baylor | ||||
| Most Underrated: | West Virginia | |||
| Most Overrated: | Texas Tech | |||
| Coaches on Hot Seat: | Oklahoma State | |||
| Iowa State | ||||
| Texas Tech | ||||
In the inaugural Big XII Championship game I have OU beating Texas in a rematch. In a mild upset I have no Big XII team making the CFP this year.
The teams.
1. Oklahoma - I've talked about their quarterback play, and I really think Kyler Murray is going to do just fine, I also think that Lincoln Riley is showing himself to be up to the job and understands what it takes to win in Norman. Defensively is where I expect this team to shine. Yes, it's easy to bag on Mike Stoops (and you'd be right in doing so) and the defense has not been up to snuff since Bob and Mike got together to blame all of the defensive woes (incorrectly) on current Clemson DC Brent Venables, but OU has the toughness and schedule to run the table. If they do, they're in the CFP, but I think they trip themselves up somewhere and I think that the trip to TCU is where it happens.
2. Texas - I hate writing this, because last year I thought Texas would be much improved and they laid a burnt orange egg. But Tom Herman has shown that he knows how to win and I think he's finally getting the players in Austin that he needs to have the team do the things he wants them to. Key games are at USC, TCU, Oklahoma State and the Red River Shootout. I think Texas loses two of those 4 games. In fact, I think they lose to both Oklahoma teams. I still question the offense but I think the defense is going to be one of the best in the nation. They'll struggle against teams that score a ton of points, which is why I think they stumble against OU and OSU.
3. TCU - A LOT of pundits are marking this down as TCU's year but I still don't have enough faith in their offense to cross that bridge. Last year TCU was a mild disappointment and I think the schedule doesn't to them any favors this year. After facing Ohio State in week 3 (loss) they have to travel to Texas where I think they get their second loss. They do get OU at home, and could pull an upset there (which would lead to chaos for the Big XII Championship game) but I think the Sooners have plenty of talent to pull this out.
4. Oklahoma State - Don't get me wrong, I think OSU is going to have a good season, but I think that losses to OU, Boise State and West Virginia the week immediately following Bedlam are the things that ultimately signal the end of the Gundy era in Stillwater. OSU is going to score points, but the question is, as it always is, whether or not they can keep other teams from scoring more. In most cases I think it's yes. I even have them pulling an upset against TCU, but I don't see them beating the big offensive teams on their schedule. The Boise State loss could hurt especially.
5. West Virginia - Quarterback Will Grier is a Heisman candidate and I think rightfully so. The Mountaineers are going to put a scare into several teams this year and might just have enough firepower to pull an upset or two. That said, they have to travel to Texas and Oklahoma State and I think OU and TCU are both better teams who can win on the road. 8-4 just feels about right for them although I do think this year, unlike last year, they are going to have a pulse on defense which could mean that they outplay my prediction. Of all the teams on here I think they are the most likely to do so.
6. Kansas State - I'm not sure how much winning coaching Bill Snyder has in him but I think that this year is the one where we start to see the wheels coming off. Offensively this is always a challenging team to watch, and I think this year might be even worse as they roll the dice with RS SO Skylar Thompson. They only have one listed to start on offense and 2 on defense so this could be a rebuilding year. That said, they play a lot of JR's so upperclassmen experience is with them. They have to hit the road for a lot of big games however and this is not the same team away from Bill Snyder Family Stadium as it is within it.
7. Baylor - Give credit to Baylor head coach Matt Ruhle for bringing the Bears back to respectability after the debacle that ended the Art Briles' era. I think Baylor has some talent, and might be on the verge of turning a corner. They've got to figure out the QB position however because right now they've got Sophomore Charlier Brewer and.......not much. They do have a talented set of wideouts who should provide some interesting options and RB Jaymichel Hasty. On defense they have some experience but not much depth which could get exposed in the points happy Big XII this year.
8. Texas Tech - Their coach might be better looking than yours, but there's scant evidence that Kliff Kingsbury is much better than your coach. Offensively a talented WR trio of Seth Collins, JoJo Robinson and Antoine Westley are going to be desperately hoping that SO QB McLane Carter can get them the ball. Tre King is an OK, if not spectacular RB but on defense I think the Red Raiders are going to struggle. They like speed and size and I'm doubtful that they'll be able to stop many teams this year. I think Kingsbury might be another coach who finds himself unemployed at the end of the year.
9. Iowa State - Last year's Cyclone team was one of the better stories in college football, but they graduated many of their best players and this year I think Cinderella turns back into a pumpkin. At quarterback they're going to look to 6th year graduate transfer (Oregon State) Kyle Klempt to lead an offense that was productive last year, but which also could go long spells without scoring. Defensively they might be OK, but not great. I do have concerns about both the D-Line play and the Safety play, although they have good, solid Sr. leadership at LB and on the corners.
10. Kansas - I STILL can't find a conference game where I'm confident the Jayhawks can get a win. That said, I don't think they'll be as terrible this year as they looked last year at times as Sr QB Peyton Bender at least has some athletic targets at WR, led by SR playmaker Steven Sims Jr. RB Khalid Herbert is reliable, and their offensive line should be better than the shambles that it was last year. Defensively they have a lot of experience, but will rely on a Freshman at one corner and a bunch of transfers at other positions. Good News: It's not long until Midnight Madness for basketball, where the Jayhawks should dominate (again) in the Big XII.
Next up: The ACC. Can Clemson repeat or will someone else take over the crown?
Friday, July 27, 2018
2018 College Football Season Preview (The B1G)
Some people see the glass as half full, some as half empty.
Me?? I just wonder who in the F%&* has been drinking my beer.....
Since the arrival of Urban Meyer at Ohio State the B1G football season has been a bunch of games, played early on Saturday, that got the "meh" ESPN/ABC announce teams, or who were hidden in obscurity on the B1G Network.
The good news for fans of most B1G schools was that you got your misery out of the way early, and could move forward to enjoying the rest of your Saturday when some of the more interesting games aired. For fans of Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan State and Wisconsin however there were always those late-window games where you played one another and the whole college football world tuned in.
Now, with the formal announcement of the ESPN/FOX 50/50 deal you're still probably going to see most of your games early on Saturdays, just on a different channel.
As far as the standings go this year promises more of the same, except that I'm breaking with the "experts" on one very important (to me) team.
Me?? I just wonder who in the F%&* has been drinking my beer.....
Since the arrival of Urban Meyer at Ohio State the B1G football season has been a bunch of games, played early on Saturday, that got the "meh" ESPN/ABC announce teams, or who were hidden in obscurity on the B1G Network.
The good news for fans of most B1G schools was that you got your misery out of the way early, and could move forward to enjoying the rest of your Saturday when some of the more interesting games aired. For fans of Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan State and Wisconsin however there were always those late-window games where you played one another and the whole college football world tuned in.
Now, with the formal announcement of the ESPN/FOX 50/50 deal you're still probably going to see most of your games early on Saturdays, just on a different channel.
As far as the standings go this year promises more of the same, except that I'm breaking with the "experts" on one very important (to me) team.
| Conference Standings: | |||||||||
| East | W | L | West | W | L | ||||
| Ohio State | 12 | 0 | Wisconsin | 10 | 2 | ||||
| Michigan State | 10 | 2 | Purdue | 8 | 4 | ||||
| Penn State | 10 | 2 | Minnesota | 8 | 4 | ||||
| Michigan | 7 | 5 | Iowa | 8 | 4 | ||||
| Indiana | 5 | 7 | Northwestern | 6 | 6 | ||||
| Maryland | 3 | 9 | Nebraska | 6 | 6 | ||||
| Rutgers | 2 | 10 | Illinois | 2 | 10 | ||||
| Won division | Won division | ||||||||
| Conference Championship: | Ohio State over Wisconsin | ||||||||
| Bowl Teams: | 10 | ||||||||
| CFP: | Ohio State | ||||||||
| Big 6: | Michigan State | ||||||||
| Big 6 2: | None | ||||||||
| Others: | Wisconsin | ||||||||
| Penn State | |||||||||
| Michigan State | |||||||||
| Purdue | |||||||||
| Minnesota | |||||||||
| Iowa | |||||||||
| Northwestern | |||||||||
| Nebraska | |||||||||
| Most Underrated: | Minnesota | ||||||||
| Most Overrated: | Michigan | ||||||||
| Coaches on Hot Seat: | Lovie Smith, Chris Ash, DJ Durkin | ||||||||
Yes, I have Ohio State winning again, and I have 3 10-2 teams and 3 teams going 8-4. I also have Michigan going 7-5, which might seem like a surprise to some of you (given my Michigan fandom) but I'll explain why in a minute.
I also have Ohio State in the CFP, and Michigan State getting the Rose Bowl nod. Here's my thoughts on the teams......
1. Ohio State - There will be a year when one of the schools rises up and takes down the Ohio State to the CFP juggernaut but it won't be this one. Urban Meyer is too good a coach, and the talent gap is much too wide. At quarterback there is a slight question, but both answers are pretty good in the form of named pre-season starter Dwayne Haskins and presumptive eventual starter Tate Martell. Everywhere else the Buckeyes are loaded, and deep. Yes, they lost a LOT to graduation but they just keep bringing in superior talent. This is a team that's going to be hard to beat this year and the only chance I see someone of having a chance to do so is TCU, in week 3. I don't think the Horned Frogs get there though.
2. Wisconsin - I give the Badgers a slight edge over Penn State and Michigan State because they play in the weaker West. The Badgers are the class of this. They're experienced at Quarterback in one Alex Hornibrook, and their offensive line might be the best in the B1G. They'll run the ball and Hornibrook with throw it to a talented set of receivers who are poised to give B1G defenses fits. Speaking of defense, the Badgers are strong with only one question mark. They will need to rebuild their defensive backfield which lost a lot to graduation and the NFL. They have a defensive coordinator though who's shown an ability to accomplish this in the past.
3. Michigan State - Mark Dantonio doesn't ask QB Brian Lewerke to do much, he places most of the offense in the lands of L.J. Scott. And it works. Lewerke was average last year but should be better this year and that should put no small amount of fear into opposing defenses. Speaking of, Sparty is always good on defense and this year should be no different. Michigan State did have a minor controversy on their hands with the racist words of LB John Reshke. But Dantonio handled that beautifully and it should be no issue by opening kick off.
4. Penn State - Saquon Barkley is gone, so head coach James Franklin is going to have to rely on quarterback Trace McSorely to spark his offense. Given the past the Nittany Lions should be OK. At RB I'm expecting the Lions to try and replace some of Barkley's production with a three-headed running back monster. Journey Brown, Nick Eury and Miles Sanders should split carries, but watch out for Freshman RB Ricky Slade. He's a scat back with game changing speed. Penn State will be solid, if not spectacular on defense, and they enjoy one of the best home-field advantages in the league. All in all this points to another good year for them.
5a. Purdue - Wait, what? Purdue? Ranked #5(ish)? Yup. The Boilermakers feature a Senior-laden offense which includes QB David Blaugh, RB Markell Jones and most of the offensive line. The one question in that unit is RS/So LT Grant Hermanns, who also has a RS/FR backup. They had better hope one comes through. They have a young, but talented group of receivers and about a Million tight-ends. Defense is where the questions come in, on a unit with no Sr's but a ton of young, fast, talent they could turn out to be a pretty good group.
5b - Minnesota - After Wisconsin in the West it's really anyone's guess as to who's going to take 2nd in the division. I give Minnesota a chance because this is PJ Fleck's 2nd year running the program and he has his fee wet now and some talent to work with. Quarterback Morgan Tanner is a RS/Frehsman who can sling the ball around, and he's going to be throwing it to a young, but talented group of wideouts. Regardless of that, they're going to rely on two SR RB's to get tough yards in the persons of Rodney Smith and Mohamed Ibrahim. Offensively they should be fine. Defensively they have an upperclassman heavy unit that performed fairly well last year, and should be even better this year with another off-season to adjust to Fleck's defense. I have the Gophers as the most underrated team in the B1G this year.
6. Michigan - I'm going to do a full write up on Michigan at a later date. For now let's just say that I'm not as confident as some. I'll address my feelings on Harbaugh then as well.
7. Northwestern - I've seen Northwestern projected as high as 8 wins and as low as 5. I think they do qualify for bowl eligibility but I don't think they're going to seriously challenge for the B1G West division. Coach Pat Fitzgerald has a ton of upperclassmen on offense, but no real playmakers to speak of. I think he's going to find himself speed challenged on defense as well. That said, this is a well coached team that usually surprises people positively rather than disappoints so I think their ceiling is higher than their floor. We'll find out a LOT about this team out of the gate when they travel to play what I think is a pretty good Purdue team.
8. Nebraska - First year head coach, and former Husker QB, Scott Frost has some raw talent to work with on offense, Quarterback Adrian Martinez should find throwing the ball to Stanley Morgan Jr. a lot of fun and Jr Transfer running back Greg Bell should be a work horse for them, but I think they are going to struggle on defense this year, especially at the beginning, as they adjust to Frost's 3-4 system and different mind-set. They have a lot of upperclassmen on that side of the ball however so I expect them to figure it out pretty quickly and end up the season just getting into a bowl game and providing Frost with some additional practices to prep for next year, where I expect them to take a HUGE step forward.
9. Indiana - Last year's Indiana team went 5-7 and I see the same thing for them this year. They lost 13 starters from that team and they're going to have to rely on a bevvy of younger players to step up, especially on the offensive side of the ball. New coach Tom Allen has his work cut out for him in a school that frequently finds itself turning its attention to College Basketball sooner rather than later. I don't foresee much of a change this year. That said, Quarterback Peyton Ramsey showed promise last year and if he's able to elevate his game, and take the reins full time, they might just have enough offense to outplay this prediction. But they're going to have to improve mightily on offense. They are helped with an easier schedule. The game to watch is the Purdue game. If they can win that......
10. Maryland - Ugly uniforms aside, there is no team that has been more disappointing over the last three years than the Terrapins. They have what appears to be a talented quarterback in RS SO Tyrell Pigrome, but head coach DJ Durkin appears to be dead-set on starting RS FR Kasim Hill. SR Ty Johnson is a capable RB and WR D.J Turner has shown some game-breaking ability. But Maryland continues to lose. On defense linebacker is a mess. They're hoping that graduate transfer (Illinois) Tre Johnson can shore up the MIKE position but everywhere else they're lacking in speed, size and athleticism. Durkin is on the hot seat this year as he needs to start transforming his pre-hiring hype to wins. I don' think he does it here.
11a. Rutgers - If nothing else, the Scarlet Knights should lose in a more exciting manner this year as head coach Chris Ash has switched from a plodding, pitch happy, behind the line offense to a chuck and duck, fast pace scheme designed to hide talent deficiencies. RB Jonathan Hillman is a graduate transfer from Boston College which should prove adequate, but I have questions as to whether RS/SR QB Giovanni Rescigno has the passing ability to consistently get the ball to a trio of Sophomore receivers. The defense features a lot of returning pieces that weren't all that good last year and the young guys are going to need to stop in to save Ash's job.
11b. Illinois - I think it's safe to say that the Lovie Smith experiment is going down in flames. The prognosis for Illini football is poor, and getting worse. Sophomore quarterback Cameron Thomas is being thrown into the fire behind an offensive line full of new faces that might get him knocked out by week 4. My question is who is he going to throw the ball to? Appalachian State Graduate Transfer Shaedon Meadors was OK at App St, but will he be able to get open against Power 5 DB's? Running back Mike Epstein played in 5 games last year and averaged 347 yards rushing with 3 touchdowns. Meh. Defensively this team has more questions than answers. It's going to be a long year in Champagne and one that I think ultimately ends with Lovie Smith, glorious beard and all, being shown the door.
As I said, I'll have more on Michigan later.
Next Up however is my look at the Big XII, coming early next week.
6. Michigan - I'm going to do a full write up on Michigan at a later date. For now let's just say that I'm not as confident as some. I'll address my feelings on Harbaugh then as well.
7. Northwestern - I've seen Northwestern projected as high as 8 wins and as low as 5. I think they do qualify for bowl eligibility but I don't think they're going to seriously challenge for the B1G West division. Coach Pat Fitzgerald has a ton of upperclassmen on offense, but no real playmakers to speak of. I think he's going to find himself speed challenged on defense as well. That said, this is a well coached team that usually surprises people positively rather than disappoints so I think their ceiling is higher than their floor. We'll find out a LOT about this team out of the gate when they travel to play what I think is a pretty good Purdue team.
8. Nebraska - First year head coach, and former Husker QB, Scott Frost has some raw talent to work with on offense, Quarterback Adrian Martinez should find throwing the ball to Stanley Morgan Jr. a lot of fun and Jr Transfer running back Greg Bell should be a work horse for them, but I think they are going to struggle on defense this year, especially at the beginning, as they adjust to Frost's 3-4 system and different mind-set. They have a lot of upperclassmen on that side of the ball however so I expect them to figure it out pretty quickly and end up the season just getting into a bowl game and providing Frost with some additional practices to prep for next year, where I expect them to take a HUGE step forward.
9. Indiana - Last year's Indiana team went 5-7 and I see the same thing for them this year. They lost 13 starters from that team and they're going to have to rely on a bevvy of younger players to step up, especially on the offensive side of the ball. New coach Tom Allen has his work cut out for him in a school that frequently finds itself turning its attention to College Basketball sooner rather than later. I don't foresee much of a change this year. That said, Quarterback Peyton Ramsey showed promise last year and if he's able to elevate his game, and take the reins full time, they might just have enough offense to outplay this prediction. But they're going to have to improve mightily on offense. They are helped with an easier schedule. The game to watch is the Purdue game. If they can win that......
10. Maryland - Ugly uniforms aside, there is no team that has been more disappointing over the last three years than the Terrapins. They have what appears to be a talented quarterback in RS SO Tyrell Pigrome, but head coach DJ Durkin appears to be dead-set on starting RS FR Kasim Hill. SR Ty Johnson is a capable RB and WR D.J Turner has shown some game-breaking ability. But Maryland continues to lose. On defense linebacker is a mess. They're hoping that graduate transfer (Illinois) Tre Johnson can shore up the MIKE position but everywhere else they're lacking in speed, size and athleticism. Durkin is on the hot seat this year as he needs to start transforming his pre-hiring hype to wins. I don' think he does it here.
11a. Rutgers - If nothing else, the Scarlet Knights should lose in a more exciting manner this year as head coach Chris Ash has switched from a plodding, pitch happy, behind the line offense to a chuck and duck, fast pace scheme designed to hide talent deficiencies. RB Jonathan Hillman is a graduate transfer from Boston College which should prove adequate, but I have questions as to whether RS/SR QB Giovanni Rescigno has the passing ability to consistently get the ball to a trio of Sophomore receivers. The defense features a lot of returning pieces that weren't all that good last year and the young guys are going to need to stop in to save Ash's job.
11b. Illinois - I think it's safe to say that the Lovie Smith experiment is going down in flames. The prognosis for Illini football is poor, and getting worse. Sophomore quarterback Cameron Thomas is being thrown into the fire behind an offensive line full of new faces that might get him knocked out by week 4. My question is who is he going to throw the ball to? Appalachian State Graduate Transfer Shaedon Meadors was OK at App St, but will he be able to get open against Power 5 DB's? Running back Mike Epstein played in 5 games last year and averaged 347 yards rushing with 3 touchdowns. Meh. Defensively this team has more questions than answers. It's going to be a long year in Champagne and one that I think ultimately ends with Lovie Smith, glorious beard and all, being shown the door.
As I said, I'll have more on Michigan later.
Next Up however is my look at the Big XII, coming early next week.
Horse Racing: The 2018 Haskell (Continuing the best part of the horse racing calendar.)
I love Summer/Fall horse racing. The distraction of the Triple Crown is out of the way and we start to point to the weekend of joy that is the Breeder's Cup. From "win and you're in" qualifying races to just really good Grade 1 Stakes ties it's the best time to be involved in the game that the public doesn't know about.
Which brings us to this Sunday's running of the Haskell Invitational, a "win and you're in" race for the Breeder's Cup Classic.
Your 6-5 Morning Line Favorite is 2 YO Champion (and Kentucky Derby runner-up) Good Magic. Going against him will be several horses whose names should be familiar to even casual racing fans.
Here's the line-up with post-position, morning line odds and jockeys.
1. Lone Sailor (Joe Bravo) 5-1
2. Navy Commander (Angel Arroyo) 12-1
3. Roaming Union (Albin Jimenez) 10-1
4. Core Beliefs (Flavien Prat) 4-1
5. Bravazo (Luis Saez) 3-1
6. Good Magic (Jose Ortiz) 6-5
7. Golden Brown (Jairo Rendon) 15-1
And here's my horse-by-horse rundown of the race....
1. Lone Sailor (Joe Bravo) [5-1] - Lone Sailor's last race was a disappointing 2nd (as a 3-2 favorite) in the Ohio Derby on June 23rd. During that race he had a perfect inside trip and the lane opened up in front of him in the stretch. He was beaten by a nose by Core Beliefs who had a much longer trip running out in the 3 path all race long. He's a tough little horse and local native Joe Bravo picks up the mount so he should gain from some local knowledge. The thing is I just don't think he's enough horse to win, but you might want to include him in your exotics.
2. Navy Commander (Angel Arroyo) [12-1] - Trainer Butch Reid is rolling the dice with the improving Navy Commander. The horse was gelded in 2017 and his been much better since that point. However, this is without argument the toughest "field" he has faced (I would argue Ax Man is the best horse he has faced). I think you can draw a line through his last place finish in the Gr III Sir Barton on Preakness day at Pimlico. The slop and fog were not to his liking. Since that race he won an allowance race at Philadelphia park against not much. Despite everything I think the best thing for this horse is to try and find a prop bet where you can choose who finishes last.
3. Roaming Union (Albin Jimenez) [10-1] - If you're looking for a horse to set the pace Roaming Union might be it. He's got some tactical speed, as he showed in the recent Pegasus (no, not THAT Pegasus, the other one) Stakes in Monmouth on June 17th, but he faltered to finish 2nd at a mile and 1/16th so I'm not sure what makes people think he's going to have the stamina to go another furlong. He's got good pedigree, Union Rags on the Top/Bernardini on the bottom, but I don't think he has the class to compete with the top horse in this field.
4. Core Beliefs (Flavian Prat) [4-1] - In 2018 Core Beliefs has finished 3rd, 2nd, 1st, 3rd, 3rd, 1st so leave him out of your exotics at your peril. The thing is, the list of horses that have beaten Core Beliefs is a spectacular one: Justify, Bolt D'Oro, Blended Citizen, Once on Whiskey and Curly's Rocket. He flat out dueled Lone Sailor in the Ohio Derby and a speed duel did him in at the Peter Pan. He'll be near the front of this race, probably with Roaming Union but I don't think the latter has the tactical speed to wear him down as did Just Whistle in the Peter Pan. This is my key horse in the race for that reason and because I love his pedigree coming from Quality Road who is proving to be a better Papa than he was a Stakes runner. I'll be using Core Beliefs heavily in all my wagering.
5. Bravazo (Luis Saez) [3-1] - Bravazo's best race on a track that wasn't a swamp was the long-ago Risen Star in February 2017. Since then he's ran OK, but has appeared outclassed against top graded stakes competition. I think he's the 3rd or 4th best horse here and I expect him to run about the same. His odds are too low to take a shot on, and will be at post time because he's a D. Wayne Lukas horse and the betting public still has a soft-spot in their hearts for Ol' Wayne. Except in my exotics, I'm passing.
6. Good Magic (Jose Ortiz) [6-5] - The 2 Yr Old champion Good Magic has looked like the exact same horse that won the Breeder's Cup Juvenile Classic in November 2017. That's not exactly meant as a compliment. Physically if you go back and watch that race it appears the horse has not matured to the same level as other 3 year old horses that were in that race. He's still plenty good, I think he'll come in second. His best race of 2018 was the Blue Grass Stakes at this same distance. I think he'll lay just off the pace and excellent rider Jose Ortiz will likely try and time his run. The problem is I don't think he'll be able to get by Core Beliefs.
7. Golden Brown (Jairo Rendon) [15-1] - Golden Brown is a hard horse to handicap. His last race, the Grade III Kent, at Delaware Park, saw him a runaway winner at 1 1/8 miles on TURF. Prior to that his races were all sprints, on dirt. He did beat some good horses in the Kent however in the form of Carrick, Hot Springs and Untamed Domain. Maybe it just took the connections a while to figure out that this is a horse who wants to go long? Maybe the Kent was an outlier? His pedigree is a mixed bag as well (Daddy Awflee Wild's best race was at a Mile and a quarter, Mom Suzee Sunrise was a sprinter.) I'm going to include Golden Brown as my long shot play because whether it was the dirt or the turf I don't think you can fully discount his run in the Kent.
Wagers:
$10 Win 4 - Core Beliefs
$5 Win 7 - Golden Brown
$1 Tri Box 4-6-5-7 ($12)
Clearly I would love to see the 7 sneak into the trifecta to bump the odds a touch. I'll also play the Late Pick 4 on Sunday but I probably won't do a $.10 Super as usual because of the small size of the field. Unless there's an upset I think payouts are going to be a little on the smallish side.
Good luck to you however you wager.
Which brings us to this Sunday's running of the Haskell Invitational, a "win and you're in" race for the Breeder's Cup Classic.
Your 6-5 Morning Line Favorite is 2 YO Champion (and Kentucky Derby runner-up) Good Magic. Going against him will be several horses whose names should be familiar to even casual racing fans.
Here's the line-up with post-position, morning line odds and jockeys.
1. Lone Sailor (Joe Bravo) 5-1
2. Navy Commander (Angel Arroyo) 12-1
3. Roaming Union (Albin Jimenez) 10-1
4. Core Beliefs (Flavien Prat) 4-1
5. Bravazo (Luis Saez) 3-1
6. Good Magic (Jose Ortiz) 6-5
7. Golden Brown (Jairo Rendon) 15-1
And here's my horse-by-horse rundown of the race....
1. Lone Sailor (Joe Bravo) [5-1] - Lone Sailor's last race was a disappointing 2nd (as a 3-2 favorite) in the Ohio Derby on June 23rd. During that race he had a perfect inside trip and the lane opened up in front of him in the stretch. He was beaten by a nose by Core Beliefs who had a much longer trip running out in the 3 path all race long. He's a tough little horse and local native Joe Bravo picks up the mount so he should gain from some local knowledge. The thing is I just don't think he's enough horse to win, but you might want to include him in your exotics.
2. Navy Commander (Angel Arroyo) [12-1] - Trainer Butch Reid is rolling the dice with the improving Navy Commander. The horse was gelded in 2017 and his been much better since that point. However, this is without argument the toughest "field" he has faced (I would argue Ax Man is the best horse he has faced). I think you can draw a line through his last place finish in the Gr III Sir Barton on Preakness day at Pimlico. The slop and fog were not to his liking. Since that race he won an allowance race at Philadelphia park against not much. Despite everything I think the best thing for this horse is to try and find a prop bet where you can choose who finishes last.
3. Roaming Union (Albin Jimenez) [10-1] - If you're looking for a horse to set the pace Roaming Union might be it. He's got some tactical speed, as he showed in the recent Pegasus (no, not THAT Pegasus, the other one) Stakes in Monmouth on June 17th, but he faltered to finish 2nd at a mile and 1/16th so I'm not sure what makes people think he's going to have the stamina to go another furlong. He's got good pedigree, Union Rags on the Top/Bernardini on the bottom, but I don't think he has the class to compete with the top horse in this field.
4. Core Beliefs (Flavian Prat) [4-1] - In 2018 Core Beliefs has finished 3rd, 2nd, 1st, 3rd, 3rd, 1st so leave him out of your exotics at your peril. The thing is, the list of horses that have beaten Core Beliefs is a spectacular one: Justify, Bolt D'Oro, Blended Citizen, Once on Whiskey and Curly's Rocket. He flat out dueled Lone Sailor in the Ohio Derby and a speed duel did him in at the Peter Pan. He'll be near the front of this race, probably with Roaming Union but I don't think the latter has the tactical speed to wear him down as did Just Whistle in the Peter Pan. This is my key horse in the race for that reason and because I love his pedigree coming from Quality Road who is proving to be a better Papa than he was a Stakes runner. I'll be using Core Beliefs heavily in all my wagering.
5. Bravazo (Luis Saez) [3-1] - Bravazo's best race on a track that wasn't a swamp was the long-ago Risen Star in February 2017. Since then he's ran OK, but has appeared outclassed against top graded stakes competition. I think he's the 3rd or 4th best horse here and I expect him to run about the same. His odds are too low to take a shot on, and will be at post time because he's a D. Wayne Lukas horse and the betting public still has a soft-spot in their hearts for Ol' Wayne. Except in my exotics, I'm passing.
6. Good Magic (Jose Ortiz) [6-5] - The 2 Yr Old champion Good Magic has looked like the exact same horse that won the Breeder's Cup Juvenile Classic in November 2017. That's not exactly meant as a compliment. Physically if you go back and watch that race it appears the horse has not matured to the same level as other 3 year old horses that were in that race. He's still plenty good, I think he'll come in second. His best race of 2018 was the Blue Grass Stakes at this same distance. I think he'll lay just off the pace and excellent rider Jose Ortiz will likely try and time his run. The problem is I don't think he'll be able to get by Core Beliefs.
7. Golden Brown (Jairo Rendon) [15-1] - Golden Brown is a hard horse to handicap. His last race, the Grade III Kent, at Delaware Park, saw him a runaway winner at 1 1/8 miles on TURF. Prior to that his races were all sprints, on dirt. He did beat some good horses in the Kent however in the form of Carrick, Hot Springs and Untamed Domain. Maybe it just took the connections a while to figure out that this is a horse who wants to go long? Maybe the Kent was an outlier? His pedigree is a mixed bag as well (Daddy Awflee Wild's best race was at a Mile and a quarter, Mom Suzee Sunrise was a sprinter.) I'm going to include Golden Brown as my long shot play because whether it was the dirt or the turf I don't think you can fully discount his run in the Kent.
Wagers:
$10 Win 4 - Core Beliefs
$5 Win 7 - Golden Brown
$1 Tri Box 4-6-5-7 ($12)
Clearly I would love to see the 7 sneak into the trifecta to bump the odds a touch. I'll also play the Late Pick 4 on Sunday but I probably won't do a $.10 Super as usual because of the small size of the field. Unless there's an upset I think payouts are going to be a little on the smallish side.
Good luck to you however you wager.
Thursday, July 26, 2018
2018 College Football Season Preview. (Part 1: S! E! C!)
Last year was a great time to be a fan of the S! E! C!, a conference with so little self-awareness that they think Championship wins by their rivals can be claimed as their own. Granted, they're not as bad as the PAC-12 in that regard, but their fans are way, way worse.
What they are good at is football, very, very good at football.
Last year they were the first conference to have two of their member schools granted entrance into the increasingly flawed College Football Playoff (this year with NO Larry Culpepper!!!) and looking at the way the game is going I see the same scenario repeating this year.
Here's a look at how I see things playing out.
What they are good at is football, very, very good at football.
Last year they were the first conference to have two of their member schools granted entrance into the increasingly flawed College Football Playoff (this year with NO Larry Culpepper!!!) and looking at the way the game is going I see the same scenario repeating this year.
Here's a look at how I see things playing out.
| Conference Standings: | ||||||||
| WEST | W | L | EAST | W | L | |||
| Alabama | 12 | 0 | Georgia | 12 | 0 | |||
| Auburn | 10 | 2 | Florida | 9 | 3 | |||
| Mississippi State | 9 | 3 | Missouri | 7 | 5 | |||
| Texas A&M | 8 | 4 | South Carolina | 7 | 5 | |||
| LSU | 5 | 7 | Tennessee | 4 | 8 | |||
| Ole Miss* | 5 | 7 | Kentucky | 3 | 9 | |||
| Arkansas | 4 | 8 | Vanderbilt | 3 | 9 | |||
| Wins Division | Wins Division | |||||||
| Conference Championship: | ||||||||
| Georgia Over Alabama | ||||||||
| Bowl Teams: | 8 | |||||||
| CFP: | Georgia | |||||||
| Big Six | Auburn | |||||||
| CFP 2: | Alabama | |||||||
| Others: | ||||||||
| Florida | ||||||||
| * On probation | Texas A&M | |||||||
| Mississippi State | ||||||||
| Missouri | ||||||||
| South Carolina | ||||||||
| Most Underrated: | Missouri | |||||||
| Most Overrated: | LSU | |||||||
| Coaches on Hot Seat: | Mark Stoops, Ed Orgeron | |||||||
| Matt Luke | ||||||||
Yes, it's just more of the same. Georgia and Alabama avoid each other in the regular season and I don't see a team on either's schedule that can beat them. Of all the teams, I think Auburn has the best chance at beating both. Unfortunately for the Plainsmen, War Eagle um Tigers they get BOTH teams on the road. Auburn has a brutal schedule this year but I do see them beating Washington to start hte year, and then rolling up until week 11 when they play Georgia.
The Conference Championship SHOULD be a repeat of last year, with Georgia once again besting the Tide, with Alabama sneaking into the CFP due to Saban reputation points. It won't be as controversial this year because, as you'll see, I don't think the other conferences will have much of a gripe heading into the post-season.
Here's a quick run-down of all the teams and how I think their season's going to look....
1. Georgia - Kirby Smart is doing what Mark Richt couldn't do, building a consistent championship caliber team at Georgia. He's recruiting the shit out of both sides of the ball and the team is loaded with talent. They are young at a couple of key positions and they lost a LOT to the NFL draft, but this is now looking like a team that's reloaded instead of one that needed to rebuild under Richt from time to time.
2. Alabama - What can you say about Alabama and Nick Saban that hasn't already been said? They're the best program in the country, although Georgia is getting closer, they recruit to their strengths and they rarely beat themselves. I think they're a much better team with Tua Tagovailoa calling plays. He's a better quarterback than Jalen Hurts in all areas except mobility, but with Alabama's stout offensive line that's not really a problem. Hurts is a good change-of-pace QB and I expect Saban to use him as such. Can't throw a lick though.
3. Auburn - Auburn is going to be really good, they're going to have a strong season, and probably wind up playing Oklahoma in the Sugar Bowl. Let's be honest, it's hard to not like a team with a defensive end named "Big Cat Bryant" right? Auburn should have a potent offense behind former Baylor Signal caller Jarret Stidham, who got better and better last year as the season progressed. Take away an odd game to LSU and Auburn would have been in the playoff last year. That said, I think they have questions in the running game and defense which makes them a clear-cut third choice.
4a. Mississippi State - The Bulldogs are going to toss the ball around the field, and they're going to be really good defending the pass. Whether or not they can run and stop the run against the top teams will determine how far they go. New Head Coach Joe Moorehead brings a historically potent offense Starkville, coming previously from Penn State where he was gifted with Saquon Barkley among other top players. It IS his first job as head coach so there's risk here, but I think Dan Mullins left the cupboard sufficiently full.
4b. Florida - Right before I started writing this, the news of a pretty ugly incident involving Florida Freshman Justin Watkins hit the wires so it's too early to tell how much of a distraction this will be for the team. Head Coach Dan Mullins has experience overcoming distraction however, and a history of performing at a high level in the SEC. It's a truism that Florida is a better location than Mississippi State so we'll see. Florida's biggest question is who is going to play quarterback for an offense that struggled mightily last year. It seems that Texan Kyle Trask is going to get the nod. He's from Manvel Texas so you know he'll be "well coached" as they say.
5. Texas A&M - With all the hype surrounding the arrival of Jimbo Fisher as head coach 8-4 is going to seem like a down season to Aggie fans. And while I think Fisher is a decent enough coach, former HC Kevin Sumlin didn't do him many favors on the talent front. There's youth all over this roster however, and some of it is pretty talented. I'm not sure whether Luke Starkel or Kellen Mond will end up calling signals. it appears Starkel is going to get the nod however.
6. Missouri - After Texas A&M the quality in the SEC starts to fall off pretty severely. The "best" of the rest appears to be Missouri, the team that everyone writes off almost every year but which always seems to outperform it's expectations. This will be Sr QB Drew Lock's swan song, and his audition for the NFL, I'm expecting a great season from him. The Tigers have a lot of experience in their first team, but might have issues when looking for depth. That will be head coach Barry Odom's primary task at the beginning of the year where he starts off the season with two cupcakes before a pretty heady matchup against Purdue. He had better figure it out before then.
7. South Carolina - Like many, I was confused when the Gamecocks announced the hiring of Will Muschamp, a coach that failed at Florida so how can you expect him to do better in Columbia? They say that water finds its level and I truly think that Muschamp's level in the SEC at SC is around 7-5.
8. LSU - The first coach on my "hot seat" list is Ed Orgeron of LSU. As usual the Tigers are going to have a wealth of talent on defense, but not much on offense and I can't find a quarterback on their roster that's going to be capable of moving the ball against college football defenses. I would imagine that Nick Brossette gets the starting duty at running back, but they have a lot of depth behind him. The problem that I see is that the Tigers are going to be very one-dimensional on offense and the better defenses they face are going to chew them up alive.
9. Ole Miss - I'll go on record here and say that the Rebel's hiring of Matt Luke was a mistake, and we're going to start to see just how bad of one it was this year. QB Jordan Ta'amu has a ton of talent to work with in the passing game, but I don't see a lot of ability to run the ball. See LSU for how one-handed offenses work against top defenses. Add to that the fact that Ole Miss has no defense to speak of the last two years (and little on the roster to suggest an improvement this year) and the Rebels could be wondering when their long nightmare will come to an end. Oh, and not for nothing, they're still on probation this year. (Although they could go to a bowl if they qualified, which I don't think they will.)
10. Tennessee - Trying to follow in the footsteps of rival Georgia, The Volunteers are hoping that former Nick Saban defensive coordinator Jeremy Pruitt provides them the same spark as Kirby Smart did for UGA. Pruitt's problem is that Tennessee's talent pool is currently 4 notches lower than the pool at Georgia. MAYBE QB transfer Keller Chryst can provide some spark and MAYBE the Vols defense can grow a backbone and MAYBE players who last year had off-years bounce back. After the disaster of the coaching search in the off-season this is a program that's reeling right now. Too many maybes. The rebuilding program starts now.
11. Arkansas - First year Coach Chad Morris is taking a HUGE leap up in class from SMU to Arkansas and I think the growing pains are going to be real. There's also the issue that he likes to play a totally different style of football than former HC Bret Bielema and it doesn't appear that he has the athletes to do it. I LIKE Morris as a coach and I hope that Arkansas provides him time to grow the program. I think they'll be happy with the results. Just not this year.
12. Kentucky - I'm adding Mark Stoops to the Hot Seat list because I think the Wildcats take a huge step backward this year. They have some talent in the passing game with a pair of good WR's and a decent signal caller in Gunnar Hoak, but every where else on the field they are lacking. My prediction is by week 4 of the season the stadium will be around half-full as Kentucky students start asking "when's midnight madness?"
13. Vanderbilt - I always pull for Vandy, the school kept in the SEC to "keep their academics up" can, from time to time, jump and and pull a surprise or three. It seems that head coach Derek Mason is going to keep the keys of the offense Kyle Schurmur, If he struggles though I could see a situation where Duece Wallace is calling signals by the end of the year. The problem for Vanderbilt every where else is just that they're too small, too slow, and not strong enough to compete against the rest of the SEC. Watch their first game against Middle Tennessee. It could be the start of a LONG season.
Next UP: The B1G - And the saddest preview I'm going to do all year.
Monday, July 23, 2018
Quick thoughts on a Lake Charles Weekend
If there's a thing as a casino being "too" successful, the Golden Nugget in Lake Charles might have found it.
My partner and I spent the weekend as a paid-in-full guest of the L'Auberge Hotel and Casino last weekend and were both thrilled and disappointed. The details.....
1. L'Auberge hotel: The rooms were comfortable, the AC worked great, and we had hot water when we jumped in the shower etc. The bathrooms are a little on the tiny side, and housekeeping was uneven at best. Play over/under on the number of towels you get each day, trust us, it's fun.
2. L'Auberge casino: The vastly underrated Globar in the center of the casino has the best odds for video poker in Lake Charles bar none. They're a full coin better than what you can find anywhere in the Golden Nugget, and even better than what one finds at the tiny Lantern bar a few steps away. Where L'Auberge hits rock bottom are their slots. They're too tight, feel like the payback is set at the State minimum of 80% tight. Two $200 sessions with an average bet size of $2-$5 per spin gave back only a handful of pays that were larger than the bet size, and no pays higher than $20. Their table games are not set up, or ran, all that well, and they have too many Baccarat tables versus blackjack, which is what a ton of people in Lake Charles want to play. Their high-limit salon is laughable. What they do have is on of those new "video based" roulette/blackjack set-ups where two to three dealers can deal for more players than can fit around a regular table.
This helps them save in labor costs, which they desperately need because the casino is hardly ever full.
3. Golden Nugget Casino: The Golden Nugget is the most popular casino in Lake Charles right now. But it's hard to see why. They have the worst odds of any local casino, horrible limits on the games, and it's often impossible to find a seat at one of their bars, or to find an open slot game where someone isn't camping.
Notice I didn't say playing. Because they fit a lot of people onto the casino floor but only a small fraction of them appear to be playing. You might have a bank of slots with all four seats taken, but only one person has money in, and is only hitting the button when the cocktail server comes around. It's the same at the Video Poker bars, where people sit and talk, and then hit play once when the server comes around. This is frustrating for people who want to play (raises hand) but seems to be OK with GN management who don't do anything to stop it.
4. Golden Nugget Restaurants: IF you can get in, and odds are you can't, the food is standard Landry's fare. But the wait at the Cadillac Cantina (no reservations accepted) was 2 hours when we arrived. Plus, if you've been to Grotto, Saltgrass, Landry's or Vic $ Anthony's in the past in other locations, you'll find the food quality and service to be a notch below. As time goes by I'm spending less and less time here, and more over at L'Auberge.
5. L'Auberge Restaurants: Favorites Southern Kitchen is consistent, if not spectacular, while Jack Daniels is highly underrated. Ember Grille might be the best casino/restaurant in town that very few people visit. They certainly have it in the menu/food section over Vic $ Anthony's and their bar/wine selection is superior as well. A bonus: Favorites also does breakfast a darn sight better than does Claim Jumper.
6. L'Auberge pool: This is a gem. Cabana rentals run $250 during the peak season but it's the best $250 you'll spend all trip. We spent 8 hours at the pool eating, drinking and having a grand time. If you do this, and don't have children, try to reserve a cabana in the "adult pool". You can still go across to the kids side and ride the lazy river if you choose, but you won't be surrounded by little kids running around and screaming.
When visiting Lake Charles my advice USED to be this: Stay at Nugget, play at L'Auberge. But I'm amending that now.
My advice going forward is this: Stay at L'Auberge, play at L'Auberge, EAT at L'Auberge. Only go to GN if you want to play slots. Better yet, save your slot play for Las Vegas and just avoid the Golden Nugget altogether. It's a hectic, noisy, crowded scene that has no interest in catering to people who like to actually gamble. L'Auberge has quietly taken advantage of GN's hubris and are re-establishing themselves as a superior property. Get there now before more and more people start to figure that out.
My partner and I spent the weekend as a paid-in-full guest of the L'Auberge Hotel and Casino last weekend and were both thrilled and disappointed. The details.....
1. L'Auberge hotel: The rooms were comfortable, the AC worked great, and we had hot water when we jumped in the shower etc. The bathrooms are a little on the tiny side, and housekeeping was uneven at best. Play over/under on the number of towels you get each day, trust us, it's fun.
2. L'Auberge casino: The vastly underrated Globar in the center of the casino has the best odds for video poker in Lake Charles bar none. They're a full coin better than what you can find anywhere in the Golden Nugget, and even better than what one finds at the tiny Lantern bar a few steps away. Where L'Auberge hits rock bottom are their slots. They're too tight, feel like the payback is set at the State minimum of 80% tight. Two $200 sessions with an average bet size of $2-$5 per spin gave back only a handful of pays that were larger than the bet size, and no pays higher than $20. Their table games are not set up, or ran, all that well, and they have too many Baccarat tables versus blackjack, which is what a ton of people in Lake Charles want to play. Their high-limit salon is laughable. What they do have is on of those new "video based" roulette/blackjack set-ups where two to three dealers can deal for more players than can fit around a regular table.
This helps them save in labor costs, which they desperately need because the casino is hardly ever full.
3. Golden Nugget Casino: The Golden Nugget is the most popular casino in Lake Charles right now. But it's hard to see why. They have the worst odds of any local casino, horrible limits on the games, and it's often impossible to find a seat at one of their bars, or to find an open slot game where someone isn't camping.
Notice I didn't say playing. Because they fit a lot of people onto the casino floor but only a small fraction of them appear to be playing. You might have a bank of slots with all four seats taken, but only one person has money in, and is only hitting the button when the cocktail server comes around. It's the same at the Video Poker bars, where people sit and talk, and then hit play once when the server comes around. This is frustrating for people who want to play (raises hand) but seems to be OK with GN management who don't do anything to stop it.
4. Golden Nugget Restaurants: IF you can get in, and odds are you can't, the food is standard Landry's fare. But the wait at the Cadillac Cantina (no reservations accepted) was 2 hours when we arrived. Plus, if you've been to Grotto, Saltgrass, Landry's or Vic $ Anthony's in the past in other locations, you'll find the food quality and service to be a notch below. As time goes by I'm spending less and less time here, and more over at L'Auberge.
5. L'Auberge Restaurants: Favorites Southern Kitchen is consistent, if not spectacular, while Jack Daniels is highly underrated. Ember Grille might be the best casino/restaurant in town that very few people visit. They certainly have it in the menu/food section over Vic $ Anthony's and their bar/wine selection is superior as well. A bonus: Favorites also does breakfast a darn sight better than does Claim Jumper.
6. L'Auberge pool: This is a gem. Cabana rentals run $250 during the peak season but it's the best $250 you'll spend all trip. We spent 8 hours at the pool eating, drinking and having a grand time. If you do this, and don't have children, try to reserve a cabana in the "adult pool". You can still go across to the kids side and ride the lazy river if you choose, but you won't be surrounded by little kids running around and screaming.
When visiting Lake Charles my advice USED to be this: Stay at Nugget, play at L'Auberge. But I'm amending that now.
My advice going forward is this: Stay at L'Auberge, play at L'Auberge, EAT at L'Auberge. Only go to GN if you want to play slots. Better yet, save your slot play for Las Vegas and just avoid the Golden Nugget altogether. It's a hectic, noisy, crowded scene that has no interest in catering to people who like to actually gamble. L'Auberge has quietly taken advantage of GN's hubris and are re-establishing themselves as a superior property. Get there now before more and more people start to figure that out.
Friday, July 13, 2018
Next Race Up: Indiana Derby
Here are my thoughts on the entries for the Indiana Derby which runs around 8:30 CDT Saturday, July 14th.
Indiana Grand runners/odds.
1. Trigger Warning (8-1): This son of Candy Ride has exactly 2 good starts in his history, but they were his two recent starts. I really liked his 3rd in the Ohio Derby (where he went off at 86-1, but not much else. Probably will be a player in the bottom of my exacta and might make it into my pick 4.
2. Blame The Rider (6-1): A horse with questionable dirt breeding who has shown his best form on the turf but is being put in against some fairly solid horses this time around….on the dirt. He’s going to have to show something he’s never shown when the track isn’t green. I’ll pass and take my chances getting beat by him.
3. Givemeaminit (20-1): Son of my least favorite sire, Star Guitar, and he’s a pure closer and he’s not run well against the same class. All three angles in my “handicappper’s toolkit” that I typically fade. Needs a hot pace and a perfect trip to win. If he gets it, then I’m wrong about him. Pass.
4. Dark Vader (8-1): Trainer Peter Eurton won this Ohio Derby with Core Beliefs by putting him on the exact same path Dark Vader finds himself on here. He has tactical speed and a ton of talent. He’s a son of Tale of Ekati which is a plus in my book and he’s an improving horse that appears to be ready to take the mythical “next step” here. Will be my key horse in all bets.
5. The Money Dance (20-1): Bred in Indiana this will be the sentimental favorite, home-breds always are, but he’s going to need a lot of things to happen in order to win. The two races he has won have been in impressive fashion however but I still think he needs to improve mightily to contend with this group.
6. Axelrod (5-1): Much like Blame the Rider, Axelrod has switched between the dirt and the turf, unlike Blame the Rider, Axelrod has looked MUCH better on the dirt. He’s a fast horse who has outran Solomini in the past, make of that what you will. Axelrod will feature in the bottom of my exotics but I think the post time price will be too cheap to back him for the win.
7. Title Ready (12-1): Stop me if you’ve heard this before, trainer Steve Asmussen has a 3 year old that he thinks highly of but might be a late bloomer. He’s REALLY going to have to bloom in a hurry to jump out in front here and hold on to beat this field. He might run a heady 3rd however so I will include him in my exotics.
8. King Zachary (6-5): The prohibitive post time favorite based mainly on his win in the Gr 3 Matt Winn stakes at Churchill, where he beat similar competition by around 5 lengths. He then ran horribly in the Wood, which we’re being told by the connections to draw a line through. I don’t see it. Yes, he’ll be in my exotics and he’ll certainly be in my Pick 4, but I’m having trouble backing this horse at what is sure to be less than even money.
9. Funny Duck (10-1): It’s starting to look like his win at the Pat Day Mile was a fluke driven primarily by the rain on that day. Although it’s not supposed to, if it rains, you might want to include Funny Duck in just about every bet you make. If it’s dry and the track is fast I think his odds will really inflate. I’ll be taking a piece as my longshot in case there’s some “there” there.
Picks: 4-8-5-7-9
Wednesday, July 11, 2018
BadTwitter: Social Media with Care Folks.
If you're any bit active on Twitter #planebae should not be a new thing. It's hit media everywhere, who are tut-tutting which is unusual when you consider that much of the media's current role is intruding into people's private lives (if it bleeds, it leads) and broadcasting it out everywhere without a thought of the collateral damage. This is opposed to watchdog, or public interest journalism that the media should be doing mind you, but that's a post for another blog.
As someone who has been online and "social" on blogs, Twitter and (to a much lesser extent) Facebook, Message Boards, Instagram (OK, barely) and Snapchat (hardly at all), this isn't the first time I've seen someone intruded upon to the point that they had to withdraw from all platforms.
It's voyeurism and it needs to stop. It's often done by "actors" of the Internet type who have a very slim CV on IMDb but the ability to add tags and squirrelly things to pictures and post them on line for all to see.
There was the case of Dani Mathers body shaming another lady in the gym which was ironic given her role as a "Playboy Model" and while most stories (rightly) involve advertisers, or data collectors scraping personal data, or hackers stealing it when the community cheers on bad actors acting in the same way they are probably unaware of just how hypocritical they are truly being.
After my initial foray into political-blogging, under the pseudonym "Sedosi Alhambra" I've always posted under my real name. In a way, I've been lucky, I've never been "Swatted" or "Doxed" which is probably more due to my relatively low readership and lack of importance online than any luck which I may, or may not, possess. I've chronicled my one time dealing with identity theft but that was more a crime of opportunity rather than celebrity.
Granted, a long time ago I had some weird guy create an entire blog (since deleted) to bash me over a simple mathematical error (instead of just pointing it out in the comments, which made me chuckle) and I once received an e-mail from some Houstonian saying only "You're a real asshole". When I asked for clarification he just said that my writing style made him hate me. Outside of that?
A few minor Twitter scuffles and.....?
Nothing.
And that's how it is for most of us. And that's honestly the way it should be. We shouldn't have to worry about having a good time, or getting just a little too tipsy, or meeting someone on a plane and having some Z-list celebrity chronicle it for page hits. We shouldn't have to worry about our dumb decisions (provided they're just dumb, and not criminal mind you) being broadcast for all to see.
The problem here is that many people view social media life as real life. They think that some anonymous troll on Twitter or, more likely, a bot speaks for the general public. A general public that, for the most part, either views social media as a lightly-used time-waster or (more likely) nothing at all.
MOST people aren't active on social media, 99.99999% of the American populace doesn't blog, or read blogs, yes, a lot of people go on Facebook but that's mainly to see how their Aunt in Iowa is doing, or to keep up with old friends from High School or College. Or, to post pictures of their kids that most of us don't want to see but reply to with "How cute" or other things. (usually followed by multiple exclamation points to really drive the cuteness home). In short, most people aren't on Social Media to become "Internet famous".
We should probably start ignoring the people who are. Start with the actor who started #planebae end with the Kardashian/West clan.
Trust me when I tell you your life will be much better for it.
And if, on your next vacation, you're tempted to take a picture of something besides yourself, scenery or good food you've eaten?
Don't.
Social Media will be all the better for it.
As someone who has been online and "social" on blogs, Twitter and (to a much lesser extent) Facebook, Message Boards, Instagram (OK, barely) and Snapchat (hardly at all), this isn't the first time I've seen someone intruded upon to the point that they had to withdraw from all platforms.
It's voyeurism and it needs to stop. It's often done by "actors" of the Internet type who have a very slim CV on IMDb but the ability to add tags and squirrelly things to pictures and post them on line for all to see.
There was the case of Dani Mathers body shaming another lady in the gym which was ironic given her role as a "Playboy Model" and while most stories (rightly) involve advertisers, or data collectors scraping personal data, or hackers stealing it when the community cheers on bad actors acting in the same way they are probably unaware of just how hypocritical they are truly being.
After my initial foray into political-blogging, under the pseudonym "Sedosi Alhambra" I've always posted under my real name. In a way, I've been lucky, I've never been "Swatted" or "Doxed" which is probably more due to my relatively low readership and lack of importance online than any luck which I may, or may not, possess. I've chronicled my one time dealing with identity theft but that was more a crime of opportunity rather than celebrity.
Granted, a long time ago I had some weird guy create an entire blog (since deleted) to bash me over a simple mathematical error (instead of just pointing it out in the comments, which made me chuckle) and I once received an e-mail from some Houstonian saying only "You're a real asshole". When I asked for clarification he just said that my writing style made him hate me. Outside of that?
A few minor Twitter scuffles and.....?
Nothing.
And that's how it is for most of us. And that's honestly the way it should be. We shouldn't have to worry about having a good time, or getting just a little too tipsy, or meeting someone on a plane and having some Z-list celebrity chronicle it for page hits. We shouldn't have to worry about our dumb decisions (provided they're just dumb, and not criminal mind you) being broadcast for all to see.
The problem here is that many people view social media life as real life. They think that some anonymous troll on Twitter or, more likely, a bot speaks for the general public. A general public that, for the most part, either views social media as a lightly-used time-waster or (more likely) nothing at all.
MOST people aren't active on social media, 99.99999% of the American populace doesn't blog, or read blogs, yes, a lot of people go on Facebook but that's mainly to see how their Aunt in Iowa is doing, or to keep up with old friends from High School or College. Or, to post pictures of their kids that most of us don't want to see but reply to with "How cute" or other things. (usually followed by multiple exclamation points to really drive the cuteness home). In short, most people aren't on Social Media to become "Internet famous".
We should probably start ignoring the people who are. Start with the actor who started #planebae end with the Kardashian/West clan.
Trust me when I tell you your life will be much better for it.
And if, on your next vacation, you're tempted to take a picture of something besides yourself, scenery or good food you've eaten?
Don't.
Social Media will be all the better for it.
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