How in the world do you beat Accelerate?
I'm going to take a 3-pronged approach with the following horses:
2. Dr. Dorr: (6/1) - Yes, he seems to like shorter but he should jump to the front of this pack and IF he goes uncontested he could find himself in front at the end. It's unlikely, but everything is unlikely when you're trying to beat a probable favorite who should be at at least 1/5 post time.
4. Roman Rosso: (5/1) - The "second" Baffert horse in the race is almost a complete unknown in the States. I'd prefer it if this was his second running in the US after shipping in but I still think he might have some speed and might be able to pull the upset here. Never underestimate Baffert at Del Mar.
6. Beach View: (15/1) - His last start was a win over the same track at a 1 1/2 where he outran Hoppertunity, who until then was positioning himself as the premier older distance horse in the country. Can Beach View close the same cutting back in distance? I'm unsure. But he's likely to go off at a huge price which means that you have to at least take a look at him.
Analysis: This is Accelerate's race to lose. I don't think he will but I'm not betting into what are sure to be short odds for him to win. I see some pace in this race and I think the unfortunate injury to jockey Victor Espinoza (being replaced by Joel Rosario) will not be much of a factor. A slow-ish pace is his big worry, but I think there's enough speed in this race to set it up perfectly for him.
Selections: 5-2-4-7
I have to include Pavel in my selections because he's a gritty horse that rarely finishes too far back. That said, he's rarely the winner either.
Wagers: (probable)
$5 Win - 2
$5 Win - 4
$2 Win - 6
$1 Tri Box - 5-2-4-7 ($24 wager)
I'll also be playing the Pick 4 that concludes with this race.
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