It's what's been known, incorrectly, as the "Super Bowl" of the Sport of Kings but in reality is more akin to Texas High-School football championship weekend. The top eligible and willing, and uninjured, horses at most distances and surfaces going at it to be named the champion(ish) horse of the year.
While I kid, a little, about the Champion(ish) part (with so many horses this year either retired or sitting out the latter half of the season that's a hard case to make in some races) it still is an event that presents two-days of mainly full, or over-full, field races that are highly competitive in some cases, coronations in others, and in still even more out-of-nowhere upsets. In other words: It's the best betting weekend in horse racing.
It starts Friday, At Churchill Downs in Kentucky and will continue on through Saturday.
With that said, here are some thoughts on the Friday races and my top horses who are in with a chance in each.
Breeder's Cup: Juvenile Turf Sprint
The first "Breeder's Cup" event is one of the more wide open affairs where you could see an upset. The Favorite, Strike Silver (4/1) is a closer which is typically not an angle I like to take in overflow field sprint races, too many trip issues for a 2 year old. Still, you have to include him in your list of contenders....
1 - Strike Silver - (4-1) Again, I have issues with him being a closer but Trainer Wesley Ward has 4 entrants in this race and he appears to be the best of the bunch.
5 - Bulletin - (10-1) A speedster who's coming off a win in the Hollywood Beach Stakes is the horse I'm going to key on here hoping for an early upset at a price. The Trainer/Jockey Combo is Pletcher/Castelleano which bodes well.
8 - Sergei Prokofiev - (5-1) I think you ignore this horse at your own peril. Trainer Aiden O'Brien and Jock Ryan Moore always seem to team up and do good things. They've got a good horse here and Ryan Moore has now ridden Churchill enough that he shouldn't be a stranger to the course, something that's hindered him coming across the pond in the past.
My Bets:
$10 - Win 5
$2 Exa Box 1-5-8
Breeder's Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf
Maybe you can get away from the favorite in this race (6 - Newspaperofrecord) but I can't. Chad Brown is America's top turf trainer and he's got Irad Ortiz Jr, one of the top jockeys in the world right now in the irons. Still, it's not a mortal lock and there could be value in the win further down the card.
6 - Newspaperofrecord (2-1) If she loses here it would be her first time ever and as I said she has Brown and Irad in her corner. I think she's going to be overbet because of Brown and better value can be found further down the card.
3 - Lily's Candle (FR) (8-1) It's possibly been overlooked that this filly is the only grade one winner in this field. And European turf horses are typically superior to their American cousins. Jockey Pierre Charles Boudot and trainer Fabrice Vermeulen are not well known in the States but they are prominent in the French circuit. Will track knowledge be a concern? Possibly, but the odds here are going to be much more playable than those of the favorite.
4 - Just Wonderful (6-1) Another entry from Aiden O'Brien and Ryan Moore who finds herself in with a chance to win. Her last outing, a win in the Grade 2 Rockfel Stakes was impressive but it was on that long, straight course at Newmarket and not around a turn.
12 - Summering (15-1) This is a long shot play based solely on watching her past performances and being impressed, and he fact that she's being ridden by Drayden Van Dyke who is the hottest jockey on the planet right now. Can't ignore this one.
My Bets:
$5 - Win 3
$5 - Win 12
$2 - Tri Box 6-3-4-12
Breeder's Cup Juvenile Fillies
This could actually be the best race of the day as there are four grade one winners running against one another and an intriguing long shot that won her last race in legendary fashion.
2 - Serengeti Empress (7-2) We'll start with the horse that just won the 2018 Pocahontas in a manner that reminded some of Rachel Alexandra. While I think that's high praise to be laying on horse that's only really performed like that once, you can't ignore it. That said I think she's going to be a little over bet due to recency bias so, while I'm passing on the win, I do think that she has to play in your exotics.
4 - Restless Rider (9-2) Winner of the Grade 1 Alcibiades Stakes this Kenny McPeek horse ridden by Brian Hernandez could be the best of the group. She's the daughter of Distorted Humor which says that she's a fit here. That said, there are two other horses that I like better here for which I think I'll be getting better odds at post time.
7 - Jaywalk (7-1) Jaywalk is coming off a solid win in the Grade One Frizette and my guess is that this Jason Servis runner is going to get slightly overlooked in the wagering due to the two horses listed above. I'm hoping for around 10-1 at post time, which could be the bet of the day if she fires.
8 - Sippican Harbor (12-1) This daughter of Orb was the winner of the Grade One Spinaway, is ridden by Irad Ortiz Jr and is sitting at 12-1? OK, I'll take that everyday and on Friday. This is my key horse who will be in my win wagers and factor prominently in my exotics.
10 - Bellafina (2-1) For many, this will be their single.This daughter of Quality Road is coming off a win in the Grade One Ballerina and looks every bit the two year old champion. She's trained by Simon Callaghan and ridden by Flavian Prat so that's fine. My problem is 1) the outside post and 2) the competition that I think is going to be much tougher.
My Bets:
$5 - Win 8
$5 - Win 7
$1 Spr Box - 2-4-7-8-10
Breeder's Cup Juvenile Turf
It could be that the best horse in this race is Anthony Van Dyck. The Aiden O'Brien trained horse has been outstanding, and drew the far outside post. That could mean that another runner further inside is going to pull off a mile upset. Because of this Anthony Van Dyck is only going off at a rather luke-warm 4-1 favorite.
2 - Uncle Benny (15-1) The intrigue with this horse is that he had an all expenses paid entry into the Juvenile Turf Sprint but opted out of that entry and chose to stretch out here. Trainer Jason Servis is either crafty as a fox, or making a huge error. He's fast though, which might cause some problems IF he can handle the distance.
4 - Forty Under (5-1) I personally think Forty Under is a better place to land. This son of Uncle Mo is coming off a win in the Grade III Pilgrim and has shown improving form of late.
5 - Line of Duty (10-1) Outside of Anthony Van Dyck I think Line of Duty is the best European threat on the board. As a matter of fact, he's my pick to win it all. Rider William Buick is confident, extremely confident in his rides this meet and I think he could potentially have a winner here.
10 - War of Will (12-1) Admittedly, it would take some improvement from recent form for this horse to contend but IF, there's a speed duel he might have the wherewithal to sweep up the pieces. Worth a sprinkle in the win pools in my estimation.
14 - Anthony Van Dyck (4-1) Pretty much summed up my thoughts on this hose in the top paragraph. I think he's the best horse in the field. If he can overcome the horrible post draw then he'll prove it and he could be a dominating horse in this discipline.
My Bets:
$5 - Win 5
$5 - Win 10
$2 Exacta Box 5-4-14
Breeder's Cup Juvenile
The winner of this race automatically gets installed as the favorite for the 2019 Kentucky Derby. And while the chalk is sometimes not the correct play here I think we could be looking down the barrel of yet another Bob Baffert best of a horse. Game Winner will be my key horse in this race and probably a single in the last leg of the all-stakes pick 5.
9 - Game Winner (8-5) He won the 2018 American Pharoah by air, and it wasn't close. He's got all the looks of a Justify or Pharoah and the way Baffert has been running with horses like this.....
6 - Complexity (5-2) If anyone is going to beat Game Winner I think it might be this Chad Brown trained colt whose coming off a win in the Grade 1 Champagne.
5 - Well Defined (20-1) Why am I including a 20-1 longshot trained by a relative unknown? Because Mike Smith is in the irons and he has a history of pulling rabbits out of hats in big races such as this.
My Bets:
$5 - Win 5
$2 Tri 9-6-5
Good luck however you choose to wager.
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