College Football week two was "supposed" to be awful. Full of on-paper mismatches and games that were predicted to be blowouts. And while it was certainly not week one, it was still entertaining and exciting and provided us with all the fun that we could want for over 17 hours on Saturday.
Week 3 should be better. Because the line-up of games is outstanding.
That said, taking an early peek at the lines there are some things I see out there which really pique my interest. Here are a few.
Houston (-7.5) @ Cincinnati. This line is going to need to move toward Cincy for me to be interested, but I think it's a fair representation of how the public views this game right now.
Florida State (-3.5) @ Louisville. The temptation in this game is going to be to take Louisville because they've romped to date. But quality of competition matters, and FSU has had the better of that. I'll be watching this one closely.
New Mexico @ Rutgers (-4). At this point I'm not sure Rutgers should be favored over air. This game will receive strong FIVE consideration.
Miami (-4.5) @ Appalachian State. The fighting Richt's go TO App State to potentially get upset. Watch this one closely.
Oregon @ Nebraska (-3). Maybe the biggest contrast of styles game of the weekend. Lincoln is a hard place to play, and the Huskers seem to be doing well to start the season.
PITT @ Oklahoma State (-6.5). I've got concerns as to whether or not OSU can stop Pitt's rushing attack. But I have equal concerns as to whether or not PITT can stop OSU's passing attack. Good, under the radar, matchup here.
Alabama (-9.5) @ Ole Miss. A big revenge game for Bama, against an Ole Miss team that's talented, but who likes to step on itself from time to time. Angry Saban is my favorite Saban of them all.
ECU @ SC (-4.5). I thought this was a mistake at first. I'm already on this game (at ECU +6) but, due to the rules, can't claim it for the FIVE yet. I just hope the line doesn't move too far toward ECU before Wednesday evening.
La Tech @ Texas Tech (-11.5). With TTech's awful defense I'm unsure if I can ever select them again this year. This is a fade team because they are going to give up points to everyone.
Texas aTm @ Auburn (-4). I'm conflicted here. On the one hand aTm has looked pretty good so far and Auburn has not. On the other hand Auburn is a talented team. But there's a possibility that aTm kills all four Auburn QB's behind that porous line.
Michigan State @ Notre Dame (-7.5). Sparty is down (from last year), but I'm not sure they're more than a touchdown down to the Dome.
Ohio State (-2.5) @ Oklahoma. Game in Norman, OU rebounded and Ohio State has displayed a powerful offense one week, and a killer defense the next. I wouldn't be surprised to see OU go off the slight game-time favorite here.
USC @ Stanford (-6.5). Game played down on the farm. I think we're going to start to see just how deep the dysfunction at USC really goes here.
UCLA (-3.5) @ BYU. Chosen Rosen is good, but I'm not sure he has much of a team around him. Still, they could have enough to beat a pretty decent Cougar team, but I'm not sure by how much.
Texas (-7.5) @ Cal. The Longhorns are going to tell us in this game if they are real, or not. I think it's the former but I'm taking a wait and see stance on them.
And finally......
Colorado @ Michigan (-19.5). The first "real" test of the season for Big Blue comes in the form of an improved Buffalo team. This game scares me a little because Blue had Penn State and then Wisconsin the two weeks following.
Look for the FIVE on Thursday morning. I'll be selecting from these games.
Monday, September 12, 2016
Sunday, September 11, 2016
College Football (Week 2): Even when you're bad, you're good.
Week 2 they told us would suck. It would be horrible, full of blowouts and mismatches and....
OK then.
Even on a week where the schedule is less than amazing on paper college football provided us with amazing finishes, overtime games and the ridiculous in the form of a Hail Mary lateral that never should have happened. FCS schools continued to look good, and win in some cases, against their FBS older brothers, teams we thought were really good might not be so, some teams we thought weren't going to be that good might be, and Kenny Hill Jr. is an idiot.
So, we're right on schedule then, heading into a week 3 schedule that promises to be loaded with big games and even more chaos.
Here are some thoughts on individual games, starting with my FIVE.
1. It was another losing week (2-3, 3-7 overall) for the five, but another week where, overall, I was better than average picking all the games. What this means is that my selections are doing OK, but my method for selecting confidence points is flawed.
Louisville (-15) @ Syracuse. Lamar Jackson is the real deal. This entire Louisville team is pretty good to boot. We're going to find out a LOT about them in week 3, but for now they appear pretty strong.
Texas Tech @ Arizona State (-3). Simply stated, Tech's defense is perhaps the worst I've ever seen. Ever. Ballage for the Devils had 13 touches, and scored 8 touchdowns. You almost have to be trying to allow someone to do that. Kliff Kingsbury is a good offensive coordinator. Unfortunately, for Tech he's their head coach.
Boston College (-17) @ UMass. The most amazing thing here is that BC actually scored some points. I didn't expect UMass to score much, but I did think they could stop an anemic BC offense. I was two points away from being correct.
Ohio @ Kansas (-3) Kansas should never be favored, against anyone. Period.
S. Carolina @ Mississippi State (-7) S.C. is discovering the joy of having Will Muschamp be your head coach. I thought this team should have played MSU close. I forgot that Muschamp can't coach his way out of a paper bag.
Next week should be great, starting on Thursday when UofH has an interesting game with Cincinnati.
OK then.
Even on a week where the schedule is less than amazing on paper college football provided us with amazing finishes, overtime games and the ridiculous in the form of a Hail Mary lateral that never should have happened. FCS schools continued to look good, and win in some cases, against their FBS older brothers, teams we thought were really good might not be so, some teams we thought weren't going to be that good might be, and Kenny Hill Jr. is an idiot.
So, we're right on schedule then, heading into a week 3 schedule that promises to be loaded with big games and even more chaos.
Here are some thoughts on individual games, starting with my FIVE.
1. It was another losing week (2-3, 3-7 overall) for the five, but another week where, overall, I was better than average picking all the games. What this means is that my selections are doing OK, but my method for selecting confidence points is flawed.
Louisville (-15) @ Syracuse. Lamar Jackson is the real deal. This entire Louisville team is pretty good to boot. We're going to find out a LOT about them in week 3, but for now they appear pretty strong.
Texas Tech @ Arizona State (-3). Simply stated, Tech's defense is perhaps the worst I've ever seen. Ever. Ballage for the Devils had 13 touches, and scored 8 touchdowns. You almost have to be trying to allow someone to do that. Kliff Kingsbury is a good offensive coordinator. Unfortunately, for Tech he's their head coach.
Boston College (-17) @ UMass. The most amazing thing here is that BC actually scored some points. I didn't expect UMass to score much, but I did think they could stop an anemic BC offense. I was two points away from being correct.
Ohio @ Kansas (-3) Kansas should never be favored, against anyone. Period.
S. Carolina @ Mississippi State (-7) S.C. is discovering the joy of having Will Muschamp be your head coach. I thought this team should have played MSU close. I forgot that Muschamp can't coach his way out of a paper bag.
Next week should be great, starting on Thursday when UofH has an interesting game with Cincinnati.
Thursday, September 8, 2016
National Football League. (What if?)
I tend to focus more on College Football than the NFL, but I think there are a few pretty good games to chew on in NFL week 1. More importantly, there are quite a few questions that need to be answered.
What if?
...Trevor Siemian is good at playing a tackle football quarterback?
Carolina (-3) @ Denver
Then Denver could be REALLY scary because they still have that defense. I still think Carolina is among the top of the class in the NFC, but I see some things brewing that could spell trouble.
Carolina 17 Denver 3
...Jacksonville is better than we thought?
Green Bay (-5.5) @ Jacksonville.
I like what the Jaguars have done with their lineup, and I love the young talent on this team. I could see a world where Bortles and Rodgers get into a shoot-out. I could also see a shellacking.
Green Bay 27 Jacksonville 20
...Houston really IS better than their 9-7 mean?
Chicago @ Houston (-6)
Let's be honest. So far Houston Texas' NFL franchise is more famous for it's cheerleaders (who leverage social media well) than anything they've done on the field. But, if Osweiler can play and JJ Watt is healthy and Miller runs the ball well.........Nah. But they still can beat Chicago, at home, methinks.
Chicago 10 Houston 23.
...Atlanta sucks again?
Tampa Bay @ Atlanta (-3)
Atlanta has been a carnival more than a football team the last couple of years. I think Tampa Bay is getting a little better, but I don't think they're ready to win yet. That said, I really want to see marked improvement from Jameis this year.
Tampa Bay 17 Atlanta 23
....My Oakland hunch is correct?
Oakland @ New Orleans (-1.5)
Then Drew Brees and Co. are in a ton of trouble, because I don't think they're going to be very good this year. New Orleans is always overrated due to the reputations of Drew Brees and Sean Payton. The problem is, neither guy can play defense. Something the Saints haven't been able to do much of either.
Oakland 38 New Orleans 17
The season starts tonight. I'm not expecting much in the way of entertainment.
What if?
...Trevor Siemian is good at playing a tackle football quarterback?
Carolina (-3) @ Denver
Then Denver could be REALLY scary because they still have that defense. I still think Carolina is among the top of the class in the NFC, but I see some things brewing that could spell trouble.
Carolina 17 Denver 3
...Jacksonville is better than we thought?
Green Bay (-5.5) @ Jacksonville.
I like what the Jaguars have done with their lineup, and I love the young talent on this team. I could see a world where Bortles and Rodgers get into a shoot-out. I could also see a shellacking.
Green Bay 27 Jacksonville 20
...Houston really IS better than their 9-7 mean?
Chicago @ Houston (-6)
Let's be honest. So far Houston Texas' NFL franchise is more famous for it's cheerleaders (who leverage social media well) than anything they've done on the field. But, if Osweiler can play and JJ Watt is healthy and Miller runs the ball well.........Nah. But they still can beat Chicago, at home, methinks.
Chicago 10 Houston 23.
...Atlanta sucks again?
Tampa Bay @ Atlanta (-3)
Atlanta has been a carnival more than a football team the last couple of years. I think Tampa Bay is getting a little better, but I don't think they're ready to win yet. That said, I really want to see marked improvement from Jameis this year.
Tampa Bay 17 Atlanta 23
....My Oakland hunch is correct?
Oakland @ New Orleans (-1.5)
Then Drew Brees and Co. are in a ton of trouble, because I don't think they're going to be very good this year. New Orleans is always overrated due to the reputations of Drew Brees and Sean Payton. The problem is, neither guy can play defense. Something the Saints haven't been able to do much of either.
Oakland 38 New Orleans 17
The season starts tonight. I'm not expecting much in the way of entertainment.
College Football: The Week 2 FIVE. (We all need a little bit of something)
Last week was just one of those weeks. Yes, it was bad. 1-4 bad. The kind of bad that makes you want to saddle up to the bar and order a some rounds while dumping $20's into the video poker machine.
But things are looking up, because we have a full weekend of football coming our way and a fresh new FIVE, ready to go....
1. Louisville (-15) @ Syracuse. If you weren't impressed with the performance of Lamar Jackson last week for Louisville then it's possible that you didn't see the game? While Louisville romped Syracuse had a workman-like 33-7 win over Colgate. I think the Cardinals are just too much. UL 52 SU 10 Louisville to cover 15.
2. Texas Tech @ Arizona State (-3) While I'm not yet totally ready to buy into the "Texas Tech is a contender this year in the Big XII" story, I am ready to buy into the "Arizona State is not very good" story. I think Tech gets the upset here. Texas Tech 38 Ariz State 31. Texas Tech to pull the upset on the ML.
3. Boston College (-17) @ UMass. Pretty short and sweet here. I'm not sure Boston College's offense can SCORE 17 this year, much less beat anyone by more than that. Boston College 13 UMass 0. UMass to cover 17.
4. Ohio @ Kansas (-3). Talk about your irrational exuberance. Kansas gets one (sort of) field rushing win over Rhode Island (FCS, last year's record, 1-10) and suddenly bettors think they are running the table. I'm kidding, of course, but Ohio is not horrible. Ohio 27 Kansas 28. Ohio to cover 3. (I would have bet them on the ML but I already have one straight up upset in the FIVE with Texas Tech)
5. S. Carolina @ Mississippi State (-7). This week's SEC pillow-fight brings us one team that stretched itself to beat....Vandy, and another team that lost to U. S. A. (South Alabama). How Miss State is a TD favorite here is beyond me. This feels like a FG game. S.C. 17 Miss St. 20 S. Carolina to cover.
Games considered but which did not make the cut. (Like Ms. Delaware in almost every Ms. America pageant.)
Cincinnati (-6) @ Purdue. True, Cincinnati did not look good last week early, Starting slow before finally putting away UT-Martin 28-7. And the Boilermakers defense against Eastern Kentucky? There's a LOT to suggest that Cincy is going to run away with this. EXCEPT, they get Houston next Thursday on a short week and could be looking ahead. This game was originally in my five but I took it out because the last point brings in too much uncertainty. Cincy 35 Purdue 24
Arkansas @ TCU (-7.5) This could be the weekend's most compelling game. And I wanted to put it into my FIVE but I've got a mental block against backing coach Bielema. That said, I think Arkansas is in here with a real chance. Arkansas 24 TCU 27.
Iowa State @ Iowa (-15). This intra-State rivalry CAN produce some surprises. But I don't think it will this year. Iowa is the MUCH stronger team. Iowa State 3 Iowa 28.
BYU @ Utah (-3.5). Maybe the best part of bowl season last year was Brent Musberger calling these two teams in the Las Vegas Bowl. The good news is that QB Taysom Hill got one last year of eligibility. The bad news is I have zero idea of what this Utah team has. BYU 27 Utah 28. (Or, Utah could win/lose by 50. I really don't know)
North Carolina (-9) @ Illinois. I don't know about you but I'm not ready to say that any program coached by Lovie Smith is a college football contender. That said, I think 9 is a high number for this game. UNC 27 Illinois 24.
Virginia Tech @ Tennessee (-11.5). Will be interesting to watch only because its being played at a race track. This is the game where I, sort of, expect UT-Knoxville to start putting it together. Plus, I've a sneaking suspicion that App State might be a tougher out this year than Va Tech. Va Tech 10 UT-Knoxville 38.
UNLV @ UCLA (-26). Either UCLA is going to be angry that they lost to aTm and are going to try and put a whupping on UNLV, or they're going to go full-on Mora and come out unfocused and struggle. This is Mora, I'm betting the latter. Plus, UNLV is on the ascendancy right now. UNLV 24 UCLA 35.
Washington State @ Boise State (-10.5) Last year the Cougs blew one to Portland State and then started slowly turning it around before finishing with a good season. This year they had better be fully woke because Boise on the Blue Turf is serious stuff. Wazzou 27 Boise 35.
Lamar @ Houston (N/L). Something to watch for: Does Greg Ward Jr. play. I don't think he should if his shoulder is sore. Cincinnati is Thursday. Lamar 3 Houston 56.
Penn State @ Pitt (-5.5). This line keeps creeping toward Pitt and might get to 6 or 6.5 by game day. If it gets to 7, I'd jump all over Penn State. PSU 24 Pitt 27.
Rice @ Army (-10). I just wanted to include this game so that I could write about the Black Knights being a 10 point favorite. Pretty cool. Rice 10 Army 35.
And finally......
UCF @ Michigan (-35.5)
I hate big lines like this. I understand them, but I hate them. Because no matter what Michigan does it will be looked at by the National Press as "meh". Next week is an improved Colorado team, and then Big Blue starts conference play. In the middle of that they need to take care of business and dispatch UCF with prejudice. This is a school who's talent well is dry. George O'Leary might be a folk hero there, but he left this program with little to work with. I also want to see Speight continue to improve, and a power running game emerge. UCF 6 Michigan 59.
Good luck to you if you're betting, don't forget to NOT take any of these picks to heart or you might be backed off for sheer insanity. Seriously, I'm an accountant in Houston for goodness' sake.
But things are looking up, because we have a full weekend of football coming our way and a fresh new FIVE, ready to go....
1. Louisville (-15) @ Syracuse. If you weren't impressed with the performance of Lamar Jackson last week for Louisville then it's possible that you didn't see the game? While Louisville romped Syracuse had a workman-like 33-7 win over Colgate. I think the Cardinals are just too much. UL 52 SU 10 Louisville to cover 15.
2. Texas Tech @ Arizona State (-3) While I'm not yet totally ready to buy into the "Texas Tech is a contender this year in the Big XII" story, I am ready to buy into the "Arizona State is not very good" story. I think Tech gets the upset here. Texas Tech 38 Ariz State 31. Texas Tech to pull the upset on the ML.
3. Boston College (-17) @ UMass. Pretty short and sweet here. I'm not sure Boston College's offense can SCORE 17 this year, much less beat anyone by more than that. Boston College 13 UMass 0. UMass to cover 17.
4. Ohio @ Kansas (-3). Talk about your irrational exuberance. Kansas gets one (sort of) field rushing win over Rhode Island (FCS, last year's record, 1-10) and suddenly bettors think they are running the table. I'm kidding, of course, but Ohio is not horrible. Ohio 27 Kansas 28. Ohio to cover 3. (I would have bet them on the ML but I already have one straight up upset in the FIVE with Texas Tech)
5. S. Carolina @ Mississippi State (-7). This week's SEC pillow-fight brings us one team that stretched itself to beat....Vandy, and another team that lost to U. S. A. (South Alabama). How Miss State is a TD favorite here is beyond me. This feels like a FG game. S.C. 17 Miss St. 20 S. Carolina to cover.
Games considered but which did not make the cut. (Like Ms. Delaware in almost every Ms. America pageant.)
Cincinnati (-6) @ Purdue. True, Cincinnati did not look good last week early, Starting slow before finally putting away UT-Martin 28-7. And the Boilermakers defense against Eastern Kentucky? There's a LOT to suggest that Cincy is going to run away with this. EXCEPT, they get Houston next Thursday on a short week and could be looking ahead. This game was originally in my five but I took it out because the last point brings in too much uncertainty. Cincy 35 Purdue 24
Arkansas @ TCU (-7.5) This could be the weekend's most compelling game. And I wanted to put it into my FIVE but I've got a mental block against backing coach Bielema. That said, I think Arkansas is in here with a real chance. Arkansas 24 TCU 27.
Iowa State @ Iowa (-15). This intra-State rivalry CAN produce some surprises. But I don't think it will this year. Iowa is the MUCH stronger team. Iowa State 3 Iowa 28.
BYU @ Utah (-3.5). Maybe the best part of bowl season last year was Brent Musberger calling these two teams in the Las Vegas Bowl. The good news is that QB Taysom Hill got one last year of eligibility. The bad news is I have zero idea of what this Utah team has. BYU 27 Utah 28. (Or, Utah could win/lose by 50. I really don't know)
North Carolina (-9) @ Illinois. I don't know about you but I'm not ready to say that any program coached by Lovie Smith is a college football contender. That said, I think 9 is a high number for this game. UNC 27 Illinois 24.
Virginia Tech @ Tennessee (-11.5). Will be interesting to watch only because its being played at a race track. This is the game where I, sort of, expect UT-Knoxville to start putting it together. Plus, I've a sneaking suspicion that App State might be a tougher out this year than Va Tech. Va Tech 10 UT-Knoxville 38.
UNLV @ UCLA (-26). Either UCLA is going to be angry that they lost to aTm and are going to try and put a whupping on UNLV, or they're going to go full-on Mora and come out unfocused and struggle. This is Mora, I'm betting the latter. Plus, UNLV is on the ascendancy right now. UNLV 24 UCLA 35.
Washington State @ Boise State (-10.5) Last year the Cougs blew one to Portland State and then started slowly turning it around before finishing with a good season. This year they had better be fully woke because Boise on the Blue Turf is serious stuff. Wazzou 27 Boise 35.
Lamar @ Houston (N/L). Something to watch for: Does Greg Ward Jr. play. I don't think he should if his shoulder is sore. Cincinnati is Thursday. Lamar 3 Houston 56.
Penn State @ Pitt (-5.5). This line keeps creeping toward Pitt and might get to 6 or 6.5 by game day. If it gets to 7, I'd jump all over Penn State. PSU 24 Pitt 27.
Rice @ Army (-10). I just wanted to include this game so that I could write about the Black Knights being a 10 point favorite. Pretty cool. Rice 10 Army 35.
And finally......
UCF @ Michigan (-35.5)
I hate big lines like this. I understand them, but I hate them. Because no matter what Michigan does it will be looked at by the National Press as "meh". Next week is an improved Colorado team, and then Big Blue starts conference play. In the middle of that they need to take care of business and dispatch UCF with prejudice. This is a school who's talent well is dry. George O'Leary might be a folk hero there, but he left this program with little to work with. I also want to see Speight continue to improve, and a power running game emerge. UCF 6 Michigan 59.
Good luck to you if you're betting, don't forget to NOT take any of these picks to heart or you might be backed off for sheer insanity. Seriously, I'm an accountant in Houston for goodness' sake.
Wednesday, September 7, 2016
College Football: A look at "blowout" lines for Week 2
Where College football week one was a master class in excitement, competitive games and sheer entertainment, week two is looking like it's going to be a snoozer in comparison. There are a LOT of double digit lines out there where huge favorites play against teams that are overmatched on paper in games that don't appear to offer much in entertainment (unless you are a fan of the favorite) or betting action.
Except in rare cases, (when I feel the favorite team is overrated by the public) I HATE big lines. And I hate betting large favorites to cover. The reason for this is two fold. First, you need a lot of things to go right to get to the numbers. Second, you need nothing to go wrong. As we saw in week one, both are problematic.
With that in mind however it would be remiss to admit that there is value to be had when looking at "big" lines. Especially if you're trying to decide whether the underdog can cover. I'm going to try and take a look at that here.
Central Michigan @ Oklahoma State (-20.5) Cover potential: 20%
OSU beat Southeastern Louisiana 61-7 while Central Michigan beat Presbyterian 49-3. In prior years I would have said that the Chippewas are the favorite to cover, but the team has a LOT of questions this year and a win over bad FCS opposition doesn't tell us anything. Of course, neither does OSU's big win over a middling FCS opponent. That said, I think OSU has too much speed and talent for this MAC team that I view as a middle-of-the-pack type of opponent to handle.
UCF @ Michigan (-35.5) Cover potential: 10%
Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh is using these early games as tune-ups to get his team ready for conference play. As a result, he's letting the starters go deeper than he normally would after running up the score. UCF is a shambles as they try to dig out of the talent hole left by O'Leary. UCF covers if Michigan has been reading their own good press.
Wyoming @ Nebraska (-24.5) Cover potential: 33 1/3%
Nebraska had a comfortable win last week over a bad Fresno State team, and it was emotional as they said their proper goodbyes to Sam Foltz. Wyoming beat NIU at 3:35AM Central time on an outstanding play that you probably weren't awake to see. Both of these things are emotionally draining for different reasons. That said, I think this Nebraska team is going to be pretty solid.
Troy @ Clemson (-36) Cover Potential: 50%
The question you have to ask yourself here is whether or not you think Clemson's offense struggled against Auburn because of Auburn's defense, or if it's because they have issues. If you think the former then you bet them to cover, if the latter, then you bet Troy. To be honest, absent some more data, this one is a coin flip at this point.
Tulsa @ Ohio State (-28.5) Cover Potential: 55%
Let me make one thing clear: A high cover potential does not mean that I think Tulsa has more than the slimmest of chances to pull the upset. But I do think they can keep it within 4 TD's. The reason for this is because Ohio State is coming off a 73-10 shellacking of Bowling Green and, oh yeah, Oklahoma is next week.
Akron @ Wisconsin (-24) Cover Potential: 40%
Wisconsin is coming off of a huge, emotional win over LSU, in Lambeau Field. Back in the comfortable confines of Camp Randall, I could see a down week coming. Akron struggled somewhat with VMI. That's not good for the Zips but I think they're in with a chance to cover.
Nevada @ Notre Dame (-28.5) Cover Potential: 25%
Call this the "Brian Kelly" uncertainty principle. IF Kelly goes full time with Kizer at QB I think ND runs up the score and hides sometime in the 1st half. But, and this is possible, if he continues to try and shoe-horn Zaire in at QB the offense is way less efficient and the Wolfpack could sneak in under the line.
Western Kentucky @ Alabama (-28) Cover Potential: 1%
Do I really need to say anything other than it's Bama, at home, against a directional school? There won't be the personal vendetta that existed last week against USC but WKU is going to find itself way overmatched here. If they do cover, it would be late and of the backdoor variety.
SMU @ Baylor (-32) Cover Potential: 10%
I still have questions about Baylor, and they are one QB injury away from total disaster. To be fair though you can say that about a lot of teams. Still, Baylor is a team that I'm probably going to lay off of for the first half of the year until I see the long-term viability of this team.
Idaho @ Washington (-37) Cover Potential: 30%
The only reason I rate this as high as I am is because 37 is a HUGE number. That said, I still think the Huskies (though overrated) have a better than average chance of getting there against one of the worst teams in the FBS. A team so bad the Sun Belt conference told them "thanks, but no thanks."
Louisiana Monroe @ Oklahoma (-46) Cover Potential: 15%
Here's the thing, I do think that OU is a pretty good team. Who just got beat by a better team in Houston. I also think they're going to be angry. And history has taught us that an angry OU, coming off a loss, under Bob Stoops is typically a run-up-the-score OU. Sorry ULaMo.
UTEP @ Texas (-28) Cover Potential: 60%
A young Texas team coming off of an emotional-as-heck victory over Notre Dame? A UTEP team who has circled this game? I can see UT-Austin coming out flat and UTEP playing over their heads for at least a half. Then talent should kick in but it might not be enough for the cover.
Eastern Michigan @ Missouri (-25) Cover Potential: 75%
Given, Eastern Michigan is now, and has always been, terrible at tackle football. But I'm not sure that Missouri has the offense needed to score 25+ points against air.
Lamar @ Houston (-35.5) Cover Potential: 80%
Houston has everything working against them this game. First, they are coming off an emotional win on National TV. Second, they have Cincinnati next week (one of there tough games this year) on a Thursday. Finally, quarterback and catalyst Greg Ward Jr. is suffering from soreness in his throwing shoulder and might sit out the game. I expect a workmanlike performance from the Cougars and a grind-it-out type of victory.
UNLV @ UCLA (-26) Cover Potential: 70%
UNLV is on the upswing and UCLA just got punched solidly in the mouth. The Bruins are a team desperately searching for an identity. I think UNLV has one and should be in with a good chance to come inside the spread.
Except in rare cases, (when I feel the favorite team is overrated by the public) I HATE big lines. And I hate betting large favorites to cover. The reason for this is two fold. First, you need a lot of things to go right to get to the numbers. Second, you need nothing to go wrong. As we saw in week one, both are problematic.
With that in mind however it would be remiss to admit that there is value to be had when looking at "big" lines. Especially if you're trying to decide whether the underdog can cover. I'm going to try and take a look at that here.
Central Michigan @ Oklahoma State (-20.5) Cover potential: 20%
OSU beat Southeastern Louisiana 61-7 while Central Michigan beat Presbyterian 49-3. In prior years I would have said that the Chippewas are the favorite to cover, but the team has a LOT of questions this year and a win over bad FCS opposition doesn't tell us anything. Of course, neither does OSU's big win over a middling FCS opponent. That said, I think OSU has too much speed and talent for this MAC team that I view as a middle-of-the-pack type of opponent to handle.
UCF @ Michigan (-35.5) Cover potential: 10%
Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh is using these early games as tune-ups to get his team ready for conference play. As a result, he's letting the starters go deeper than he normally would after running up the score. UCF is a shambles as they try to dig out of the talent hole left by O'Leary. UCF covers if Michigan has been reading their own good press.
Wyoming @ Nebraska (-24.5) Cover potential: 33 1/3%
Nebraska had a comfortable win last week over a bad Fresno State team, and it was emotional as they said their proper goodbyes to Sam Foltz. Wyoming beat NIU at 3:35AM Central time on an outstanding play that you probably weren't awake to see. Both of these things are emotionally draining for different reasons. That said, I think this Nebraska team is going to be pretty solid.
Troy @ Clemson (-36) Cover Potential: 50%
The question you have to ask yourself here is whether or not you think Clemson's offense struggled against Auburn because of Auburn's defense, or if it's because they have issues. If you think the former then you bet them to cover, if the latter, then you bet Troy. To be honest, absent some more data, this one is a coin flip at this point.
Tulsa @ Ohio State (-28.5) Cover Potential: 55%
Let me make one thing clear: A high cover potential does not mean that I think Tulsa has more than the slimmest of chances to pull the upset. But I do think they can keep it within 4 TD's. The reason for this is because Ohio State is coming off a 73-10 shellacking of Bowling Green and, oh yeah, Oklahoma is next week.
Akron @ Wisconsin (-24) Cover Potential: 40%
Wisconsin is coming off of a huge, emotional win over LSU, in Lambeau Field. Back in the comfortable confines of Camp Randall, I could see a down week coming. Akron struggled somewhat with VMI. That's not good for the Zips but I think they're in with a chance to cover.
Nevada @ Notre Dame (-28.5) Cover Potential: 25%
Call this the "Brian Kelly" uncertainty principle. IF Kelly goes full time with Kizer at QB I think ND runs up the score and hides sometime in the 1st half. But, and this is possible, if he continues to try and shoe-horn Zaire in at QB the offense is way less efficient and the Wolfpack could sneak in under the line.
Western Kentucky @ Alabama (-28) Cover Potential: 1%
Do I really need to say anything other than it's Bama, at home, against a directional school? There won't be the personal vendetta that existed last week against USC but WKU is going to find itself way overmatched here. If they do cover, it would be late and of the backdoor variety.
SMU @ Baylor (-32) Cover Potential: 10%
I still have questions about Baylor, and they are one QB injury away from total disaster. To be fair though you can say that about a lot of teams. Still, Baylor is a team that I'm probably going to lay off of for the first half of the year until I see the long-term viability of this team.
Idaho @ Washington (-37) Cover Potential: 30%
The only reason I rate this as high as I am is because 37 is a HUGE number. That said, I still think the Huskies (though overrated) have a better than average chance of getting there against one of the worst teams in the FBS. A team so bad the Sun Belt conference told them "thanks, but no thanks."
Louisiana Monroe @ Oklahoma (-46) Cover Potential: 15%
Here's the thing, I do think that OU is a pretty good team. Who just got beat by a better team in Houston. I also think they're going to be angry. And history has taught us that an angry OU, coming off a loss, under Bob Stoops is typically a run-up-the-score OU. Sorry ULaMo.
UTEP @ Texas (-28) Cover Potential: 60%
A young Texas team coming off of an emotional-as-heck victory over Notre Dame? A UTEP team who has circled this game? I can see UT-Austin coming out flat and UTEP playing over their heads for at least a half. Then talent should kick in but it might not be enough for the cover.
Eastern Michigan @ Missouri (-25) Cover Potential: 75%
Given, Eastern Michigan is now, and has always been, terrible at tackle football. But I'm not sure that Missouri has the offense needed to score 25+ points against air.
Lamar @ Houston (-35.5) Cover Potential: 80%
Houston has everything working against them this game. First, they are coming off an emotional win on National TV. Second, they have Cincinnati next week (one of there tough games this year) on a Thursday. Finally, quarterback and catalyst Greg Ward Jr. is suffering from soreness in his throwing shoulder and might sit out the game. I expect a workmanlike performance from the Cougars and a grind-it-out type of victory.
UNLV @ UCLA (-26) Cover Potential: 70%
UNLV is on the upswing and UCLA just got punched solidly in the mouth. The Bruins are a team desperately searching for an identity. I think UNLV has one and should be in with a good chance to come inside the spread.
College Football: An early look at lines. (Week 2)
Right now, there are people getting paid to go onto sports talk radio and tell you that any given line is "how Vegas sees the game" or (my favorite) "Who Vegas thinks will win."
The understanding of lines, and how they are set, is probably the biggest misunderstanding in the gaming industry and, is quite often used by casinos to separate gamblers from their money.
It's important to note that lines, especially in close games, are not "who Vegas thinks will win" but are instead where the number needs to be set, in the minds of the bookkeepers, in order to ensure an even distribution of bets on either side of the line.
There will always be exposure, games where the books find 70% of all money on one side or the other, and no amount of line tweaking is going to change that. But the books understand a couple of things:
1. They have the Vig, which is mathematically unbeatable.
2. They understand that the betting public is, by and large, stupid and prone to be wrong.
There's a reason the sports books cater to touts, and the action they bring. It's because the touts are wrong a majority of the time. (Regardless of the stats they cherry pick to convince you otherwise.) The Sports books LOVE touts.
My entire FIVE is an experiment to see if the recreational bettor can, with just a little bit of research (and luck), crack 53% (the number generally accepted as needed to turn a profit considering the Vig) over the course of a season. That's why one bad week or, conversely, one good week is neither the end of the world or a big victory. The key is consistency, over the long-run.
All that said, here are some of the early lines that I'll be considering for tomorrow's FIVE:
(Listed in no particular order)
Louisville (-14.5) @ Syracuse
Cincinnati (-6) @ Purdue
Arkansas @ TCU (-7.5)
Iowa St. @ Iowa (-15)
BYU @ Utah (-3)
Boston College (-17) @ UMASS
North Carolina (-9) @ Illinois
Va Tech @ Tennessee (-11.5)
UNLV @ UCLA (-26)
Ohio @ Kansas (-2.5)
Texas Tech @ Arizona State (-2.5)
Washington State @ Boise State (-12.5)
S.Carolina @ Mississippi State (-6.5)
Penn State @ Pitt (-5)
Rice @ Army (-10)
All of these games are under consideration, and much of it will depend on how lines move over the next 24 hours (I'm writing this on Tuesday evening for Wednesday AM publication.)
Schedule wise, this week is far inferior to week one. But from a betting perspective there may be more interesting games out there where profit could be made. Part of the reason for that is because the public now has a sample set to run off of, so they can overreact to what they saw in week one.
The understanding of lines, and how they are set, is probably the biggest misunderstanding in the gaming industry and, is quite often used by casinos to separate gamblers from their money.
It's important to note that lines, especially in close games, are not "who Vegas thinks will win" but are instead where the number needs to be set, in the minds of the bookkeepers, in order to ensure an even distribution of bets on either side of the line.
There will always be exposure, games where the books find 70% of all money on one side or the other, and no amount of line tweaking is going to change that. But the books understand a couple of things:
1. They have the Vig, which is mathematically unbeatable.
2. They understand that the betting public is, by and large, stupid and prone to be wrong.
There's a reason the sports books cater to touts, and the action they bring. It's because the touts are wrong a majority of the time. (Regardless of the stats they cherry pick to convince you otherwise.) The Sports books LOVE touts.
My entire FIVE is an experiment to see if the recreational bettor can, with just a little bit of research (and luck), crack 53% (the number generally accepted as needed to turn a profit considering the Vig) over the course of a season. That's why one bad week or, conversely, one good week is neither the end of the world or a big victory. The key is consistency, over the long-run.
All that said, here are some of the early lines that I'll be considering for tomorrow's FIVE:
(Listed in no particular order)
Louisville (-14.5) @ Syracuse
Cincinnati (-6) @ Purdue
Arkansas @ TCU (-7.5)
Iowa St. @ Iowa (-15)
BYU @ Utah (-3)
Boston College (-17) @ UMASS
North Carolina (-9) @ Illinois
Va Tech @ Tennessee (-11.5)
UNLV @ UCLA (-26)
Ohio @ Kansas (-2.5)
Texas Tech @ Arizona State (-2.5)
Washington State @ Boise State (-12.5)
S.Carolina @ Mississippi State (-6.5)
Penn State @ Pitt (-5)
Rice @ Army (-10)
All of these games are under consideration, and much of it will depend on how lines move over the next 24 hours (I'm writing this on Tuesday evening for Wednesday AM publication.)
Schedule wise, this week is far inferior to week one. But from a betting perspective there may be more interesting games out there where profit could be made. Part of the reason for that is because the public now has a sample set to run off of, so they can overreact to what they saw in week one.
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