After 18 games my record stands at a fairly respectable 21-13. That's around a 62% winning percentage. (I did not have an opinion on the Celebration Bowl, although I did watch it)
What we've seen, so far, is that it's very difficult to figure out which teams are going to come to play, and which teams are just going to lay an egg. (Hi, Toledo!) Overall the first 17 bowl games have been disappointing, given how enticing many of the match-ups looked on paper. Again, motivation among 17-22 year old men is often a difficult thing to grasp.
Now: A word about the lines.
MOST of these posts I wrote during the evening well before the games were played. The lines were accurate at the time that I wrote them to the best information that I could find. I used The odds available on ESPN and, if unavailable there I used the consensus odds found on Odds Shark.
For the upcoming games, I updated these odds at 10:00 PM, December 26th. (Which is the time that I authored this post, to run in the morning) I will try to update the odds on the playoff games prior to them kicking off but I cannot guarantee that I'll update them all before then.
IF I made bets on the games, and I'm not playing all of these, then the odds posted are what I took. Your mileage may vary. Since I'm not selling these picks I feel no special obligation to keep the odds updated. In other words, if you can't find them when they publish they're probably stale.
Amazingly, there are still 22 games left to play and we're only 5 days away from the New Year which means that there are a ton of bowls being played over the next few days. (An average of 4 per day).
Good luck to you and enjoy the games, especially if you're off work. (Sadly, I work the rest of this week)
Wednesday, December 27, 2017
Tuesday, December 26, 2017
College Football: It's Bowl Season!!!!! (Part IV)
Here's hoping that you got everything you wanted on Christmas Day, and then some. That you spent quality time with your loved ones and that you and yours had an all around good time.
Here's also hoping that your picks were winners.
It's after Christmas now so let's dive directly into the games.
Zaxby's Heart of Dallas Bowl. 1:30 PM ET. Tuesday, Dec 26th.
[6-6] Utah (-6.5) vs. [7-5] West Virginia T: 56.5
The line for this game opened at -4 for Utah and immediately started falling the Utes way. Mountaineer Quarterback Will Grier has announced he's coming back, but all-star RB Justin Crawford is sitting out this game for business reasons (aka the NFL draft). That's too bad because a 100% WV defense vs. a healthy(ish) Utah defense would have been a sight to see. If WVU is one-dimensional I think they are in some trouble, UNLESS Utah returns to having difficulties fielding a competent offense. There is a question if Grier can play due to his horrific looking broken finger against Texas. If not then WV will trot out Chris Chuganov and....oh boy.
Pick: Utah to COVER -6.5 and UNDER.
Quick Lane Bowl. 5:15 PM ET. Tuesday, Dec 26th.
[6-6] Duke (-5.5) vs. [8-4] Northern Illinois. T: 47.5
This game is going to be all about the turnovers. When they win, the Blue Devils are a ball-hawking group who put their limited offense in a good position to score easily, Northern Illinois does not protect the football. This game opened at minus two and a half and has slid toward Duke ever since. The primary reason for this is because. UNI will be without star running back Jordan Huff, which is going to put more pressure on the passing game, and the questionable quarterback play of Marcus Childers. I don't expect a lot of points in this game, as both defensive units are better than the offensive units they will be facing.
Pick: Duke to COVER -5.5 and UNDER.
Cactus Bowl. 9:00 PM ET. Tuesday, Dec 26th.
[7-5] Kansas State (-2.5) vs. [6-6] UCLA T: 64
Call this the "Goodbye Bowl", maybe. You're certainly seeing UCLA QB Josh Rosen for the last time in College Football (He'll likely be the number one pick in the NFL Draft next year) and it could possibly be the last game for KSU legend Bill Snyder. If that's the case enjoy it, because I expect Rosen to try and put on a show and KSU to basically try and bully the Bruins into submission. the problem for UCLA is that they are the finesse team's finesse team, lacking any physicality at all. That makes them ripe for the picking by a K-State team that's tough and aggressive, but overrated as a well coached team that doesn't make mistakes to beat themselves (they do, quite frequently often, especially in big games).
Pick: K-State to COVER -2.5 and UNDER.
Walk-On's Independence Bowl. 1:30 PM ET. Wednesday, Dec 27th.
[8-4] Southern Mississippi vs. (6-6) Florida State (-16.5) T: 49.
I'm going to be honest with you. I'm not watching this game and neither should you. To get to this game Florida State had to play funny with their schedule and re-add a game against UL-Monroe just to hit six wins. The Seminole's former head coach Jimbo Fisher is now an Aggie, which makes this the saddest continuation of a bowl-streak ever. The feeling is that Florida State will out-talent Southern Miss, which discounts a little bit the fact that the AAC is very close in talent to some Power 5 schools. The problem for Southern Miss is that they really don't. That said I think they're in with a chance given the situation at FSU.
Pick: Southern Mississippi to COVER -16.5 and OVER. (UPDATE: This line is falling. FAST. Now down to -14.5. I hope you grabbed this early.)
New Era Pinstripe Bowl. 5:15 PM ET. Wednesday, Dec 27th.
[7-5] Iowa (-2.5) vs. [7-5] Boston College T: 45
Yes, it's going to be boring, a slog, a "good old fashioned defensive battle" but one that I think Boston College has the horses to win. The good thing? If Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz plays BC close he'll probably get another contract extension out of the deal. Iowa had one of the greatest traditions this year turning around and waving to the Children's hospital after the first quarter. No matter how many times I saw that, or stories about it, the room got dusty. BC's Freshman RB Dillon is the real deal. Look for a defensive slug-fest though.
Pick: Boston College to COVER -2.5 and UNDER.
Foster Farms Bowl. 8:30 PM ET. Wednesday, Dec 27th.
[7-5] Arizona (-3.5) vs. [6-6] Purdue T: 65
Go ahead and watch this game and get a jump on water cooler talk about next year's Heisman race in the person of Arizona QB Khalil Tate. The guy is electric and I'm sure he would like to have a coming out party here, with most of his games being buried late night or on Pac-12 Network previously, this will be the first chance for many to watch him play. Purdue has a pretty good defense so I don't think a ton of points will be scored here but I do think Arizona has the better athletes and enough speed to pull of a comfortable win.
Pick: Arizona to COVER -3.5 and UNDER.
Academy Sports & Outdoors Texas Bowl. 9:00 PM ET. Wednesday, December 27th.
[6-6] Texas-Austin vs. [7-5] Missouri (-2.5) T: 60.5
Let's get this out of the way early: The start time on this game is AWFUL. Starting at 8PM local time it's not going to be finished until 1AM on the East coast. And a ton of people have to work on Thursday. Missouri has been read hot since the mid-point of the season and UT-Austin is learning that returning to prominence after a beloved coach almost destroyed the program is a tough ask. Mizzou OC Josh Huepel is off to coach at UCF so it will be interesting to see how their play-calling goes. IF they can continue to click on offense it could be a long night for the Fighting Hermans.
Pick: Missouri to COVER -2.5 and OVER.
In case you're not keeping count, that's two days and seven games worth of college football. After this batch of games we start to move into the big-boys games including many teams that you've seen play all year several times.
Enjoy the games.
Here's also hoping that your picks were winners.
It's after Christmas now so let's dive directly into the games.
Zaxby's Heart of Dallas Bowl. 1:30 PM ET. Tuesday, Dec 26th.
[6-6] Utah (-6.5) vs. [7-5] West Virginia T: 56.5
The line for this game opened at -4 for Utah and immediately started falling the Utes way. Mountaineer Quarterback Will Grier has announced he's coming back, but all-star RB Justin Crawford is sitting out this game for business reasons (aka the NFL draft). That's too bad because a 100% WV defense vs. a healthy(ish) Utah defense would have been a sight to see. If WVU is one-dimensional I think they are in some trouble, UNLESS Utah returns to having difficulties fielding a competent offense. There is a question if Grier can play due to his horrific looking broken finger against Texas. If not then WV will trot out Chris Chuganov and....oh boy.
Pick: Utah to COVER -6.5 and UNDER.
Quick Lane Bowl. 5:15 PM ET. Tuesday, Dec 26th.
[6-6] Duke (-5.5) vs. [8-4] Northern Illinois. T: 47.5
This game is going to be all about the turnovers. When they win, the Blue Devils are a ball-hawking group who put their limited offense in a good position to score easily, Northern Illinois does not protect the football. This game opened at minus two and a half and has slid toward Duke ever since. The primary reason for this is because. UNI will be without star running back Jordan Huff, which is going to put more pressure on the passing game, and the questionable quarterback play of Marcus Childers. I don't expect a lot of points in this game, as both defensive units are better than the offensive units they will be facing.
Pick: Duke to COVER -5.5 and UNDER.
Cactus Bowl. 9:00 PM ET. Tuesday, Dec 26th.
[7-5] Kansas State (-2.5) vs. [6-6] UCLA T: 64
Call this the "Goodbye Bowl", maybe. You're certainly seeing UCLA QB Josh Rosen for the last time in College Football (He'll likely be the number one pick in the NFL Draft next year) and it could possibly be the last game for KSU legend Bill Snyder. If that's the case enjoy it, because I expect Rosen to try and put on a show and KSU to basically try and bully the Bruins into submission. the problem for UCLA is that they are the finesse team's finesse team, lacking any physicality at all. That makes them ripe for the picking by a K-State team that's tough and aggressive, but overrated as a well coached team that doesn't make mistakes to beat themselves (they do, quite frequently often, especially in big games).
Pick: K-State to COVER -2.5 and UNDER.
Walk-On's Independence Bowl. 1:30 PM ET. Wednesday, Dec 27th.
[8-4] Southern Mississippi vs. (6-6) Florida State (-16.5) T: 49.
I'm going to be honest with you. I'm not watching this game and neither should you. To get to this game Florida State had to play funny with their schedule and re-add a game against UL-Monroe just to hit six wins. The Seminole's former head coach Jimbo Fisher is now an Aggie, which makes this the saddest continuation of a bowl-streak ever. The feeling is that Florida State will out-talent Southern Miss, which discounts a little bit the fact that the AAC is very close in talent to some Power 5 schools. The problem for Southern Miss is that they really don't. That said I think they're in with a chance given the situation at FSU.
Pick: Southern Mississippi to COVER -16.5 and OVER. (UPDATE: This line is falling. FAST. Now down to -14.5. I hope you grabbed this early.)
New Era Pinstripe Bowl. 5:15 PM ET. Wednesday, Dec 27th.
[7-5] Iowa (-2.5) vs. [7-5] Boston College T: 45
Yes, it's going to be boring, a slog, a "good old fashioned defensive battle" but one that I think Boston College has the horses to win. The good thing? If Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz plays BC close he'll probably get another contract extension out of the deal. Iowa had one of the greatest traditions this year turning around and waving to the Children's hospital after the first quarter. No matter how many times I saw that, or stories about it, the room got dusty. BC's Freshman RB Dillon is the real deal. Look for a defensive slug-fest though.
Pick: Boston College to COVER -2.5 and UNDER.
Foster Farms Bowl. 8:30 PM ET. Wednesday, Dec 27th.
[7-5] Arizona (-3.5) vs. [6-6] Purdue T: 65
Go ahead and watch this game and get a jump on water cooler talk about next year's Heisman race in the person of Arizona QB Khalil Tate. The guy is electric and I'm sure he would like to have a coming out party here, with most of his games being buried late night or on Pac-12 Network previously, this will be the first chance for many to watch him play. Purdue has a pretty good defense so I don't think a ton of points will be scored here but I do think Arizona has the better athletes and enough speed to pull of a comfortable win.
Pick: Arizona to COVER -3.5 and UNDER.
Academy Sports & Outdoors Texas Bowl. 9:00 PM ET. Wednesday, December 27th.
[6-6] Texas-Austin vs. [7-5] Missouri (-2.5) T: 60.5
Let's get this out of the way early: The start time on this game is AWFUL. Starting at 8PM local time it's not going to be finished until 1AM on the East coast. And a ton of people have to work on Thursday. Missouri has been read hot since the mid-point of the season and UT-Austin is learning that returning to prominence after a beloved coach almost destroyed the program is a tough ask. Mizzou OC Josh Huepel is off to coach at UCF so it will be interesting to see how their play-calling goes. IF they can continue to click on offense it could be a long night for the Fighting Hermans.
Pick: Missouri to COVER -2.5 and OVER.
In case you're not keeping count, that's two days and seven games worth of college football. After this batch of games we start to move into the big-boys games including many teams that you've seen play all year several times.
Enjoy the games.
Monday, December 25, 2017
Believe, in the spirit of the Season
As is custom, the blog will be taking a break during the Holidays. Although I do have some posts schedule for bowl season in the coming weeks I'll mostly be taking a break from blogging to recharge and spend time with my friends and family.
It is my sincere hope that you do this as well, regardless of which Holiday you celebrate.
So Happy ChrismaHanukKwanSolstimas to all and to all a good ROI.
It is my sincere hope that you do this as well, regardless of which Holiday you celebrate.
So Happy ChrismaHanukKwanSolstimas to all and to all a good ROI.
Friday, December 22, 2017
College Football: It's Bowl Season!!!!! (Part III)
Consider this group of bowls an early Christmas gift.
It's filled with games that, despite only featuring one Power 5 team, have the potential to be some of the better games of the bowl season, IF both teams decide to show up.
With that, let's get to the games.
Birmingham Bowl. 12:00 PM ET. Saturday, Dec 23rd.
[6-6] Texas Tech vs. [9-2] University of South Florida (-2) T: 66
The secret to this game being entertaining is whether or not South Florida shows up. We already know their fan base isn't motivated, and it's not all that clear the team is either. That said, Texas Tech should be happy to be in any bowl given their recent history. The eyeball matchup in this game is USF's Sr. Quarterback Quentin Flowers vs. Tech signal-caller Nick Shimolek. Last year Flowers put on a show in this very same bowl game, a 46-39 overtime win over South Carolina. Both teams can score a ton, and both defenses are suspect. IF USF shows up willing to play this game could hit the over by halftime. I have a sneaking suspicion Flowers will be ready, and he'll make the rest of the Bulls ready to play as well. It doesn't hurt that some will (wrongly) view this game as an NFL audition for Flowers.
Pick: USF to COVER -2 and OVER. (Way, way over)
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl. 3:30 PM ET. Saturday, Dec 23rd.
[10-2] San Diego State (-6.5) vs. [9-3] Army T: 46.
Minus 6 1/2 for a favorite is what's known in sports betting parlance as a "good line". And this is a doubly good line because I think SDSU's rush defense is strong enough to put the brakes on Army's run it or nothing triple option. This game is also probably your last chance to see Aztec RB Rashaad Penny before he heads to the NFL. IF he plays that is. It's also a chance to enjoy, and appreciate, service academy football one more time this season. After this game all of the Seniors move on to graduate and fulfill their service commitments. Unfortunately my thought is they go out to NavyTown in a loss. (Despite beating Navy and winning the Commander in Chief's Trophy)
Pick: SDSU to Cover -6.5 and OVER
Dollar General Bowl. 7:00 PM ET. Saturday, Dec 23rd.
[8-4] Appalachian State vs. [11-2] Toledo (-7.5) T: 61.5
Remember in Chapter II when I said this next chapter would include what I feel is a very underrated match-up? This is that game. Toledo won the MAC Conference and features QB Logan Woodside, Appalachian State won the SunBelt and features QB Taylor Lamb. Both are excellent QBs and both have talent around them. I think the difference in this game is the Mountaineer's ability to run the ball against Toledo's pillow soft run defense. Also, and this might be a little controversial, but I believe the tip-top of the SunBelt was better than the tip-top of the MAC this year. Shoot out coming though. One last thing, + 7.1/2 is also considered a "good line" in sports betting parlance.
Pick: Appalachian State to COVER +7.5 and OVER
Hawai'i Bowl. 8:30 PM ET, Sunday, Dec 24th.
[9-4] Fresno State vs. [7-4] Houston. (-2.5) T: 49.5
If for nothing else, this game is worth watching to get one last chance to see Ed Oliver play. Houston's Defensive End is a monster and will certainly be a high first rounder should he stay healthy next year and bolt to the NFL Draft. He's that good. Jeff Tedford has done a good job with the Bulldogs this year, Houston has played much better since head coach Major Applewhite figured out that a quarterback with skills like D'Eriq King is required to properly run their offense. For the Cougars also this will be the last game for Stefen Bonnar III and Lance Dunbar, possibly the best WR tandem in college football this year. It's hard to tell what the motivations for both teams will be, but if both come to play then the Cougars have better dudes than Fresno. Third game today with a "good" number FWIW.
Pick: Houston to COVER -2.5 and UNDER.
And that gets us up to Christmas. After the Hawai'i Bowl it's presents and egg-nog and too much food and finding ways to ignore the NFL game on Monday (Texans vs. Steelers??? Yuck) Still, the NBA is typically pretty good on the 25th or you could do the unthinkable and spend the day with your family. The latter is my plan.
Merry ChristmaHannuKwanzolstis to all of you.
It's filled with games that, despite only featuring one Power 5 team, have the potential to be some of the better games of the bowl season, IF both teams decide to show up.
With that, let's get to the games.
Birmingham Bowl. 12:00 PM ET. Saturday, Dec 23rd.
[6-6] Texas Tech vs. [9-2] University of South Florida (-2) T: 66
The secret to this game being entertaining is whether or not South Florida shows up. We already know their fan base isn't motivated, and it's not all that clear the team is either. That said, Texas Tech should be happy to be in any bowl given their recent history. The eyeball matchup in this game is USF's Sr. Quarterback Quentin Flowers vs. Tech signal-caller Nick Shimolek. Last year Flowers put on a show in this very same bowl game, a 46-39 overtime win over South Carolina. Both teams can score a ton, and both defenses are suspect. IF USF shows up willing to play this game could hit the over by halftime. I have a sneaking suspicion Flowers will be ready, and he'll make the rest of the Bulls ready to play as well. It doesn't hurt that some will (wrongly) view this game as an NFL audition for Flowers.
Pick: USF to COVER -2 and OVER. (Way, way over)
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl. 3:30 PM ET. Saturday, Dec 23rd.
[10-2] San Diego State (-6.5) vs. [9-3] Army T: 46.
Minus 6 1/2 for a favorite is what's known in sports betting parlance as a "good line". And this is a doubly good line because I think SDSU's rush defense is strong enough to put the brakes on Army's run it or nothing triple option. This game is also probably your last chance to see Aztec RB Rashaad Penny before he heads to the NFL. IF he plays that is. It's also a chance to enjoy, and appreciate, service academy football one more time this season. After this game all of the Seniors move on to graduate and fulfill their service commitments. Unfortunately my thought is they go out to NavyTown in a loss. (Despite beating Navy and winning the Commander in Chief's Trophy)
Pick: SDSU to Cover -6.5 and OVER
Dollar General Bowl. 7:00 PM ET. Saturday, Dec 23rd.
[8-4] Appalachian State vs. [11-2] Toledo (-7.5) T: 61.5
Remember in Chapter II when I said this next chapter would include what I feel is a very underrated match-up? This is that game. Toledo won the MAC Conference and features QB Logan Woodside, Appalachian State won the SunBelt and features QB Taylor Lamb. Both are excellent QBs and both have talent around them. I think the difference in this game is the Mountaineer's ability to run the ball against Toledo's pillow soft run defense. Also, and this might be a little controversial, but I believe the tip-top of the SunBelt was better than the tip-top of the MAC this year. Shoot out coming though. One last thing, + 7.1/2 is also considered a "good line" in sports betting parlance.
Pick: Appalachian State to COVER +7.5 and OVER
Hawai'i Bowl. 8:30 PM ET, Sunday, Dec 24th.
[9-4] Fresno State vs. [7-4] Houston. (-2.5) T: 49.5
If for nothing else, this game is worth watching to get one last chance to see Ed Oliver play. Houston's Defensive End is a monster and will certainly be a high first rounder should he stay healthy next year and bolt to the NFL Draft. He's that good. Jeff Tedford has done a good job with the Bulldogs this year, Houston has played much better since head coach Major Applewhite figured out that a quarterback with skills like D'Eriq King is required to properly run their offense. For the Cougars also this will be the last game for Stefen Bonnar III and Lance Dunbar, possibly the best WR tandem in college football this year. It's hard to tell what the motivations for both teams will be, but if both come to play then the Cougars have better dudes than Fresno. Third game today with a "good" number FWIW.
Pick: Houston to COVER -2.5 and UNDER.
And that gets us up to Christmas. After the Hawai'i Bowl it's presents and egg-nog and too much food and finding ways to ignore the NFL game on Monday (Texans vs. Steelers??? Yuck) Still, the NBA is typically pretty good on the 25th or you could do the unthinkable and spend the day with your family. The latter is my plan.
Merry ChristmaHannuKwanzolstis to all of you.
Monday, December 18, 2017
College Football: It's Bowl Season!!!!! (Part II)
Into life, a little sadness must fall.
With 40 (!!) games on the bowl schedule it's only natural that a dog or three is going to squirm into the mix somewhere. Unfortunately, we're going to have to get through these games to get to the good stuff. That said, sometimes the games we think are going to be unwatchable turn into some of the more fun games of the year so let's see.
But first, a recap of Part I: I went 9-3 over the first six games which is not half bad.
I don't have much hope for this first bowl however.
Cheribundi Tart Cherry Boca Raton Bowl. 7 PM ET. Tuesday, Dec 19th.
[10-3] Florida Atlantic (-22.5) vs. [7-6] Akron. T: 64.
Pity the poor Boca Raton Bowl, whose first choice of teams were off the board before they even got to make a selection. They tried, grabbing home-town FAU which should assure a good crowd, but got stuck with Akron who are projected to be nothing more than fodder for the Owls. Like him or not Lane Kiffin can coach offense, and his FAU Owls are very, very good at it. They ran the table, and won, in Conference USA and I'm predicting they have no problems with a Zips team that backed its way into the MAC Championship before being blown out by Toledo. Zips head coach Tommy Bowden says that this time it's all about improving the lives of young men. He's going to have a good chance to teach them how to deal with a blowout loss with class methinks. Still, this game is on a Tuesday night and if it gets bad you can always watch Christmas specials.
Pick: Florida Atlantic to cover -22.5 and OVER.
DXL Frisco Bowl, 8PM ET. Wednesday, Dec 20th.
[6-6] Louisiana Tech vs. [7-5] SMU (-5) T: 70
SMU is the favorite in this game, but I'm unsure how a team that lost Chad Morris and downgraded significantly in the coach's office to Sonny Dykes should be viewed as such. It's an open secret that Dykes wants the Texas Tech job once held by his father, in fact, it's rumored that Cal let him go because he was too open in politicking for the same, but his overall coaching record is sub .500 and I've yet to see any evidence that he's all that good of a coach. On the other side Louisiana Tech has Skip Holtz, another legacy coach who's not as good as Daddy, but probably better overall. What Dykes will have is one of the best WR tandems in the country in the persons of Courtland Sutton and Trey Quinn. Louisiana Tech counters with Teddy Veal and Rhasheed Bonette. Both defenses are porous and rely heavily on getting turnovers. That said, I think there are severe motivation concerns for SMU, which could lead to this being a dog of a game.
Pick: Louisiana Tech to win on the ML and UNDER.
Bad Boy Mowers Gasparilla Bowl. 8PM ET. Thursday, Dec 21st.
[6-6] Temple (-7) vs. [8-4] Florida International T: 56
This game, named after a Pirate, not a flower, is the second chance for the American conference to prove their "Power 6" gap over the remaining Power 5 conferences. But Florida International, coached by Butch Davis, has a better than average chance of upsetting the American apple cart, as teams have the past few years. In fact, since starting the power 6 marketing campaign last year the conference has gone 2-5 in bowl games. that's not very good considering they view themselves as vastly superior to the other four "non-power" conferences. After the SMU game above I think they'll find themselves in yet another hole and they're going to look to Temple to bail them out. I see this as a high(ish)-scoring affair and a close one. I think the spread of -7 is ludicrous.
Pick: Florida International to COVER +7 and OVER.
Bahamas Bowl. 12:30 ET, Friday December 22nd.
[8-4] UAB vs. [8-4] Ohio (-7.5) T: 56
Regardless of the outcome of this game the story of the UAB Blazers is one of the feel-good stories in college football this year. Having shuttered the program 2 years prior due to oppressive rulings from the parent University in Tuscaloosa which made competing difficult, the Blazers listened to public outcry and reestablished college football this year. With a new conference (Conference USA) and the same coach (Bill Clark) the players and business community raised the funds necessary and revived the team, which is rewarding them with a bowl game and successful season. They square off against an Ohio team that I picked (incorrectly) to win the MAC but who stumbled down the stretch and didn't even get to play in the championship game. For the Blazers, Freshman RB Spencer Brown is a star in the making but he's going to be facing a Bobcats defense that stuffs the run, but is vulnerable to the pass. The question will be whether UAB can pass the ball enough to score against Ohio, and whether their defense can stop a Bobcats running attack which is by committee, and keeps running out fresh legs.
Pick: UAB to COVER +7.5 and UNDER.
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. 4:00 PM ET. Friday December 22nd.
[7-5] Wyoming (-1) vs. [8-4] Central Michigan. T: 44.5
I would not be surprised at almost any result in this game, other than a blowout one way or the other. Both teams have over-hyped quarterbacks (Wyoming has knicked-up Josh Allen [who might not play] while CMU has former Michigan signal caller Shane Morris) who have failed to live up to expectations. Both teams have trouble moving the ball and, most importantly, converting on 3rd down. Both teams have bend but don't break defenses who are excellent at getting turnovers. On the streaky front, CMU is hot (winning five out of their last six) and Wyoming is stone cold (losing their last two) and neither offense is what you call stellar. Still, 44.5 is a ridiculously low line for college football. In games like this it comes down to coaching, and I like Wyoming's Bohl over Central Michigan's Bonamego to develop a winning game plan in just under 4 weeks.
Pick: Wyoming to COVER -1 and OVER.
We'll do a post later in the week examining the weekend games, including one of the games that I think might be THE non-playoff game to watch this bowl season.
Enjoy the games.
With 40 (!!) games on the bowl schedule it's only natural that a dog or three is going to squirm into the mix somewhere. Unfortunately, we're going to have to get through these games to get to the good stuff. That said, sometimes the games we think are going to be unwatchable turn into some of the more fun games of the year so let's see.
But first, a recap of Part I: I went 9-3 over the first six games which is not half bad.
I don't have much hope for this first bowl however.
Cheribundi Tart Cherry Boca Raton Bowl. 7 PM ET. Tuesday, Dec 19th.
[10-3] Florida Atlantic (-22.5) vs. [7-6] Akron. T: 64.
Pity the poor Boca Raton Bowl, whose first choice of teams were off the board before they even got to make a selection. They tried, grabbing home-town FAU which should assure a good crowd, but got stuck with Akron who are projected to be nothing more than fodder for the Owls. Like him or not Lane Kiffin can coach offense, and his FAU Owls are very, very good at it. They ran the table, and won, in Conference USA and I'm predicting they have no problems with a Zips team that backed its way into the MAC Championship before being blown out by Toledo. Zips head coach Tommy Bowden says that this time it's all about improving the lives of young men. He's going to have a good chance to teach them how to deal with a blowout loss with class methinks. Still, this game is on a Tuesday night and if it gets bad you can always watch Christmas specials.
Pick: Florida Atlantic to cover -22.5 and OVER.
DXL Frisco Bowl, 8PM ET. Wednesday, Dec 20th.
[6-6] Louisiana Tech vs. [7-5] SMU (-5) T: 70
SMU is the favorite in this game, but I'm unsure how a team that lost Chad Morris and downgraded significantly in the coach's office to Sonny Dykes should be viewed as such. It's an open secret that Dykes wants the Texas Tech job once held by his father, in fact, it's rumored that Cal let him go because he was too open in politicking for the same, but his overall coaching record is sub .500 and I've yet to see any evidence that he's all that good of a coach. On the other side Louisiana Tech has Skip Holtz, another legacy coach who's not as good as Daddy, but probably better overall. What Dykes will have is one of the best WR tandems in the country in the persons of Courtland Sutton and Trey Quinn. Louisiana Tech counters with Teddy Veal and Rhasheed Bonette. Both defenses are porous and rely heavily on getting turnovers. That said, I think there are severe motivation concerns for SMU, which could lead to this being a dog of a game.
Pick: Louisiana Tech to win on the ML and UNDER.
Bad Boy Mowers Gasparilla Bowl. 8PM ET. Thursday, Dec 21st.
[6-6] Temple (-7) vs. [8-4] Florida International T: 56
This game, named after a Pirate, not a flower, is the second chance for the American conference to prove their "Power 6" gap over the remaining Power 5 conferences. But Florida International, coached by Butch Davis, has a better than average chance of upsetting the American apple cart, as teams have the past few years. In fact, since starting the power 6 marketing campaign last year the conference has gone 2-5 in bowl games. that's not very good considering they view themselves as vastly superior to the other four "non-power" conferences. After the SMU game above I think they'll find themselves in yet another hole and they're going to look to Temple to bail them out. I see this as a high(ish)-scoring affair and a close one. I think the spread of -7 is ludicrous.
Pick: Florida International to COVER +7 and OVER.
Bahamas Bowl. 12:30 ET, Friday December 22nd.
[8-4] UAB vs. [8-4] Ohio (-7.5) T: 56
Regardless of the outcome of this game the story of the UAB Blazers is one of the feel-good stories in college football this year. Having shuttered the program 2 years prior due to oppressive rulings from the parent University in Tuscaloosa which made competing difficult, the Blazers listened to public outcry and reestablished college football this year. With a new conference (Conference USA) and the same coach (Bill Clark) the players and business community raised the funds necessary and revived the team, which is rewarding them with a bowl game and successful season. They square off against an Ohio team that I picked (incorrectly) to win the MAC but who stumbled down the stretch and didn't even get to play in the championship game. For the Blazers, Freshman RB Spencer Brown is a star in the making but he's going to be facing a Bobcats defense that stuffs the run, but is vulnerable to the pass. The question will be whether UAB can pass the ball enough to score against Ohio, and whether their defense can stop a Bobcats running attack which is by committee, and keeps running out fresh legs.
Pick: UAB to COVER +7.5 and UNDER.
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. 4:00 PM ET. Friday December 22nd.
[7-5] Wyoming (-1) vs. [8-4] Central Michigan. T: 44.5
I would not be surprised at almost any result in this game, other than a blowout one way or the other. Both teams have over-hyped quarterbacks (Wyoming has knicked-up Josh Allen [who might not play] while CMU has former Michigan signal caller Shane Morris) who have failed to live up to expectations. Both teams have trouble moving the ball and, most importantly, converting on 3rd down. Both teams have bend but don't break defenses who are excellent at getting turnovers. On the streaky front, CMU is hot (winning five out of their last six) and Wyoming is stone cold (losing their last two) and neither offense is what you call stellar. Still, 44.5 is a ridiculously low line for college football. In games like this it comes down to coaching, and I like Wyoming's Bohl over Central Michigan's Bonamego to develop a winning game plan in just under 4 weeks.
Pick: Wyoming to COVER -1 and OVER.
We'll do a post later in the week examining the weekend games, including one of the games that I think might be THE non-playoff game to watch this bowl season.
Enjoy the games.
The Shield: Another crisis averted?
Something in this story struck me as wrong....
Panthers’ Jerry Richardson may have saved NFL from prying into dirty laundry. yahoo! sports
So, the problem (for the NFL) is not that Richardson was a serial sexual harasser, but that he used non-disclosure agreements to keep it from the League?
OK then.
The continued unraveling of the NFL is a horrific, sad, and often fascinating thing to watch. You can't imagine that their attitude on this one is going to help their public relations any.
Granted, it's not as bad as Mario Batali's apology and pivot to cinnamon rolls but it does continue to make an out-of-touch, poorly ran, tone deaf league appear even more so.
Panthers’ Jerry Richardson may have saved NFL from prying into dirty laundry. yahoo! sports
The lawyers who spoke to Yahoo Sports on Sunday said that was the massive red flag in the Sports Illustrated report on Richardson: That he allegedly used non-disclosure agreements with four former employees to shield his actions. An act that could potentially protect him from some form of litigation, but also keep him in the good graces of the league.
So, the problem (for the NFL) is not that Richardson was a serial sexual harasser, but that he used non-disclosure agreements to keep it from the League?
OK then.
The continued unraveling of the NFL is a horrific, sad, and often fascinating thing to watch. You can't imagine that their attitude on this one is going to help their public relations any.
Granted, it's not as bad as Mario Batali's apology and pivot to cinnamon rolls but it does continue to make an out-of-touch, poorly ran, tone deaf league appear even more so.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)