I put this out onTwitter today but I thought it might be a good idea to reproduce it here.
Honestly I don't think the bad gaming odds have much to do with Vegas attendance dropping. As much as people like me gripe about it we're old men hollering at clouds.
Most of the general public wouldn't know good blackjack rules from bad ones. Same for slot holds etc.
I think the real reason people are cooling on Vegas lately are all of the fees. Resort fees, parking fees, CTF fees, service fees, entertainment fees, booking fees, etc.
Vegas was long considered a value destination by most, then it changed to faux luxury.
Granted, some people like that stuff, high-end liquors, being overcharged for middle-of-the-road alcohol, "gourmet" food that's just about the same as you can get at home (sans the celebrity chef of course) Night clubs, they'll even pay for it.
The reason for this is that people feel they're getting SOMETHING for their money. An experience, a nice pair of shoes, a decent meal, some wine, a drink.
Even pools are popular despite high prices because they're FUN.
But all these fees are different. You pay something and you get nothing in return.
Wi-fi? Local calls? Access to the Fitness facility?
All those things used to be free. Same with parking. Now they're not and people are choosing to spend their entertainment dollars elsewhere.
Gambling as a draw faded away a LONG time ago. You can gamble in a casino near your home, even in Texas.
What Vegas sold was an EXPERIENCE. They're not doing that any more, at least on the Strip.
Now they're selling the experience as a white good and people are running away.
The biggest way to bring the crowds back is to drop/greatly reduce the fees, bring back some of the value and experience and people will return.
Keep going the way they are going and it's going to get much worse before it gets better.
Wednesday, August 1, 2018
College Football 2018 Season Preview: The ACC
The top of the ACC might be the strongest of all the Power 5 conferences in college football. The 5 teams of Clemson, Virginia Tech, Florida State, Miami and NC State have the talent and ability to stand toe-to-toe with almost anyone in the nation.
Still, even with all these good teams I think the job that Dabo Swinney has done at Clemson has them a notch above the other teams in the conference.
Still, even with all these good teams I think the job that Dabo Swinney has done at Clemson has them a notch above the other teams in the conference.
| Conference Standings: | ||||||||
| Atlantic | W | L | Coastal | W | L | |||
| Clemson | 12 | 0 | Virginia Tech | 10 | 2 | |||
| Florida State | 10 | 2 | Miami | 10 | 2 | |||
| NC State | 9 | 3 | Duke | 7 | 5 | |||
| Louisville | 8 | 4 | Georgia Tech | 6 | 6 | |||
| Wake Forest | 6 | 6 | North Carolina | 6 | 6 | |||
| Boston College | 3 | 9 | Pittsburgh | 3 | 9 | |||
| Syracuse | 2 | 10 | Virginia | 1 | 11 | |||
| Won division | Won division | |||||||
| Conference Championship: | ||||||||
| Clemson over Virginia Tech | ||||||||
| Bowl Teams: | 10 | |||||||
| CFP: | Clemson | |||||||
| Big 6: | Florida State | |||||||
| CFP 2: | None | |||||||
| Others: | Miami | |||||||
| NC State | ||||||||
| Virginia Tech | ||||||||
| Louisville | ||||||||
| Duke | ||||||||
| Wake Forest | ||||||||
| North Carolina | ||||||||
| Georgia Tech | ||||||||
| Most Underrated: | Virginia Tech | |||||||
| Most Overrated: | Boston College | |||||||
| Coaches on Hot Seat: | Pittsburgh | |||||||
| Boston College | ||||||||
| Syracuse | ||||||||
| Virginia | ||||||||
Here's my team by team:
1. Clemson: There's a lot of noise about "who's going to start at quarterback?" and that's scaring some people away from the Tigers. But the fact is that either option is better than most teams already. Either Kelly Bryant or Treavor Lawrence would be the unquestioned starter for most programs in the country. If you're going to have a problem, THIS is the one to have. The Tigers have talent at all the skill positions and a nasty offensive line. Despite losing a lot to the NFL draft they will again have one of the nastiest front 7's on defense in football, and they have young talent for depth as well. Their defensive 2-deep is littered with upper-classmen, so they're going to rotate depth and not get tired. This is a loaded team.
2. Virginia Tech: Justin Fuente has a young quarterback throwing to a young-ish group of WR's so the passing game might need some time to gel. Fortunately they have RB Steven People's to carry them through behind a monster offensive line. On the defensive side of the ball they're going to have a mean defensive line, with a young but talented group of LB's backing them up. They're a little young at DB but a solid pass rush should allow them time to grow. Add to that one of the best defensive coordinators in the country and I think they get the chance to play Clemson in the ACC Title game.
3a. Florida State: Yes, this is a transition year with Jimbo Fisher at Texas A&M and Willie Taggert taking the reins, but they still have offensive talent in bunches with QB Deondre Francios throwing to a talented trio of WR's and a stud running back in the person of Jacques Patrick. The O-line might need a chance to gel, which makes the early game against Virginia Tech a challenge, but if they can survive that the schedule gets easier for the couple of weeks. Defensively they should be just fine.
3b. Miami: This will be Sr. QB Malik Rosier's last year to make a mark and I think the pieces are in place for him to do so. Miami still has a ton of talent on the offensive side of the ball, and I think they'll score points in bunches. Defensively they're fast, athletic, and a little lacking in depth which is a concern. Miami's early season schedule is friendly, and if they can beat Georgia Tech it probably sets up a barn burner of a game in Blacksburg. Enter Sandman.
4. NC State: This is the year for NC State head coach Dave Dorean. If he's going to contend for the ACC title it has to be with this group. A Senior laden offense and defense are solid, if not spectacular, and it remains to be seen how RS Sr Transfer (Boise State) Ryan Finley handles the offense under this pressure. I think they're going to need to lean on a talented defense early, but their early schedule is laughably easy and I wouldn't sleep on that Week 3 trip to Wake Forest.
5. Louisville: Unfortunately for the Cardinals, they have to start the season getting shellacked by Alabama. Head Coach Bobby Petrino is going to rely on SO QB Jawson Pass to fill the huge gap left by Heisman trophy winner Lamar Jackson. He might want to look over his shoulder however because Freshman Malik Cunningham might end up being the starting QB by season's end. Louisville is a good, but not great team that's going to struggle when they play the really good teams on their schedule. We've also seen that playing 'Bama to start the season can destroy a team mentally. Do you really have faith in Petrino to hold it together enough to make an ACC title run?
6. Duke: Head Coach David Cutcliffe has found a home at Duke and considering the disadvantages he has there is doing an amazing job. He's got some offensive talent this time around and an offensive line anchored by Sr Center Zach Harmon that should get better as the year progresses. Defensively they're going to have to rely on a couple of Freshmen to grow up quickly in the defensive backfield, but the front 7 should be just fine. My question is: Can they score enough points consistently to win?
7a. Wake Forest: Welcome to the mushy middle of the ACC, three teams that aren't all that bad, but not all that good either. Wake Forest has a Senior heavy team that's OK, talented enough, and a team that you don't necessarily want to play at their house because Dave Clawson's group typically doesn't beat themselves. I do worry that overall team speed and size will be a huge issue against the better teams they face but they should do just enough to attain bowl eligibility.
7b. Georgia Tech: Yes, Paul Johnson runs the triple option but it's not entirely fair to call it a "gimmick offense". It's a good offense that makes the Yellow Jackets a tough team to deal with on a standard week and it can give teams fits. This is why I think Miami needs to beware of their game in Atlanta. But this is a team filled with a lot of returning starters who were just average last year, and that's what I see for them this year. The check-scratchers at Tech are starting to tire of Paul Johnson's ways and I'm not sure whether 6-6 will be enough for them to want to bring him back. Especially when you consider next year is probably a rebuilding year.
7c. North Carolina: Thanks to Larry Fedora for providing us with the best snippits of ACC Media Days. Offensively I've got concerns about an O-Line that is young and untested, and skill players that seem to be a notch below the best in the league. On defense it's the same. They lack a certain speed and tenacity that one finds in the best of circumstances. If nothing else, we'll have Fedora's odd comments regarding football, tackling and destroying the Republic to kick around before their early-slate bowl game.
8. Boston College: Eagles head coach Steve Addazio hangs his hat on his defense and this year is going to be no different. They're going to try to find a way to run the ball with Sophomores at QB and RB, but at least they're behind a good offensive line. Defensively I think we see the Eagles take a step back this year as they lost a LOT of talent at LB from last year and a lot of what Addazio likes to do on defense is predicated on good LB play. I see this as a rebuilding year for Boston College, and it's going to be rough. But if the young players mature rapidly they could very easily out-perform my season prediction. It wouldn't be the first time I'm wrong about them and it probably won't be the last.
9. Pittsburgh: Put coach Pat Narduzzi in second place in your "ACC coaches most likely to get the boot" list for this year. Pitt is going to struggle scoring points, and struggle to stop teams late in games as lack of quality depth is going to wear down their defense. It's all going to start crashing down for Pitt in week 2, when Penn State comes to town. After that it's tough sledding for them in almost every game. Until they play.....
10. Syracuse: I like Dino Babers, I think he's a good coach that got put in a horrible situation at Syracuse and I think he's been unable to pull himself out of it. This is the last go-round for QB Eric Dungey and while I wish him success, I think the offensive line is going to be this team's undoing. On defense they should be fairly solid but a brutal schedule is going to ultimately do them in. After opening the season against Western Michigan, they snack on a cupcake before Florida State comes to town. Following that is another cupcake and then to Clemson, Pittsburgh, North Carolina at home, NC State at home, to Wake Forest, Louisville at home, to Notre Dame and to Boston College. Ouch.
11. Virginia: Head Coach Bronco Mendenhall obviously had no idea he was walking into a tire fire when he took the Virginia head job but here we are. Not much to say really, except that I think this is the low point before Mendenhall turns it around.
11. Virginia: Head Coach Bronco Mendenhall obviously had no idea he was walking into a tire fire when he took the Virginia head job but here we are. Not much to say really, except that I think this is the low point before Mendenhall turns it around.
Up Next: The PAC-12 and what might be the most fun regular season of any Power 5 conference.
College Football: Possible Revision to my B1G predictions (obviously)
In light of the stories surrounding Ohio State Head Coach Urban Meyer I think it's fair to say that my B1G 2018 season projections are under review.
IF Urban Meyer gets dismissed from his position it will obviously change how the season is viewed. Ohio State still has all of that talent, but losing the head coach is typically pretty devastating for a team, any team.
For now we're going to plow forward with the remaining conferences but we'll probably be revisiting the B1G before the season starts.
IF Urban Meyer gets dismissed from his position it will obviously change how the season is viewed. Ohio State still has all of that talent, but losing the head coach is typically pretty devastating for a team, any team.
For now we're going to plow forward with the remaining conferences but we'll probably be revisiting the B1G before the season starts.
Horse Racing: The 2018 Whitney Stakes
This is sure to bet the marquee race of Saturday but I'm not quite sure it's going to be the best race of the day, I'll reserve that title for either the West Virginia Derby at Mountaineer or the Whitney undercard Test Stakes ran just prior. The way I see this race is that there is a clear favorite, a couple of horses with upset potential and one really good wild card.
Here's my summary of the horses: (with Pole Positions, jockeys and trainers)
1. Tapwrit (John Valazquez/Todd Pletcher) [6-1] - Since winning the Belmont in 2017 Tapwrit has been a little bit of a disappointment. But much could be said for most of the 3YO class that year. His most recent race was against Diversify and others in the Suburban, where he laid an egg. He also didn't fire in his first race off a layoff, finishing 3rd in an allowance race at Belmont. Oof. Many "in the know" however feel that Pletcher has been pointing Tapwrit to this race all along. He's going to have to improve mightily against this field however, but he's certainly going to be in my exotics based on prior form.
2. Backyard Heaven (Javier Castallano/Chad Brown) [9-2] - Maybe this horse has a chance to win IF he improves a bunch off of his recent form and IF trainer Chad Brown can replicate the form of his turf horses on dirt for a change? Maybe? Looked good in the Alysheba (Gr II) against much lesser, but horrid in the Grade 1 Stephen F Foster which is the quality that he's running against here. I think he gets overbet and is a leave-out horse except at the bottom end of one's exotics.
3. Dalmore (Ricardo Santana/Bob Hess Jr.) [30-1] - A horse with some tactical speed, but not a lot, that should find himself near the front of the Whitney before falling back to near last as the true speed in this race takes over. He's in here, and will compete with the pace, making it an honest race, but that's about the best you can say about him. Pass. If he beats me I'm wrong.
4. Mind Your Biscuits (Joel Rosario/Chad Summers) [2-1] - Here's your wildcard. One of the top 5 sprinters in the world seeks to lengthen this race and obviously Summers figures he's in with a chance. The problem is we just don't know if he can go this far. What we do know is that, because of his name, he'll probably get too much play to really take seriously as a betting option. That's too bad because this is one of my favorite active horses right now. I'll include him in my exotics, probably near the top.
5. Discreet Lover (Manny Franco/Uriah St. Louis) [30-1] - A tough horse that always seems to finish just off the board in Grade 1 Stakes races. I see the same for him here. Against this field it will seem like his win in the Grade III Excelsior was a LONG TIME AGO and there's nothing in his form since then that makes me feel he'll compete here. The most interesting bet for him might be between Dalmore for who finishes last in this race.
6. Diversify (Irad Ortiz Jr./Rick Violette) [7-5] - I could see him going off as less than an even-money favorite and it wouldn't be out of line. His last two races have been wins in the Commentator and the Gr II Suburban Handicap where he flat outran a field that included War Story, Tapwrit, Hoppertunity and Discreet Lover. The thing is, I don't think he's going to get challenged on the lead except by Dalmore, who is far slower than anything that challenged him in the Suburban. He'll be at the top of my exotics but the odds will be too small for a win bet.
7. Good Samaritan (Jose Ortiz/Bill Mott) [12-1] - I'm not too concerned with the outside post because Good Samaritan is a closer who's going to have to hope for a hot pace where he can sweep up the pieces. IF Mind Your Biscuits gets involved with Diversify that could happen. In my opinion he's your best chance to beat the favorite and I'll be keying on him with a win bet and hoping to catch a price. In my exotics however I'll have him finishing 2nd - 4th.
8. McCracken (Brian Hernandez Jr./Ian Wilkes) [15-1] - Every year there is a horse that I like for which the connections continue to stubbornly place them in the wrong races. McCracken is my horse this year. I LOVE him as a miler, I don't like him at all at 1 1/8th. I think he'll be running around trying to see if he can come in 3rd or 4th as he starts to fade at the Mile marker. I will use him in the bottom of my exotics, but that's about it. Would LOVE to see him run in some mile races later in the year.
Picks: 6-4-7-1
Bets: Too be determined closer to post time.
Here's my summary of the horses: (with Pole Positions, jockeys and trainers)
1. Tapwrit (John Valazquez/Todd Pletcher) [6-1] - Since winning the Belmont in 2017 Tapwrit has been a little bit of a disappointment. But much could be said for most of the 3YO class that year. His most recent race was against Diversify and others in the Suburban, where he laid an egg. He also didn't fire in his first race off a layoff, finishing 3rd in an allowance race at Belmont. Oof. Many "in the know" however feel that Pletcher has been pointing Tapwrit to this race all along. He's going to have to improve mightily against this field however, but he's certainly going to be in my exotics based on prior form.
2. Backyard Heaven (Javier Castallano/Chad Brown) [9-2] - Maybe this horse has a chance to win IF he improves a bunch off of his recent form and IF trainer Chad Brown can replicate the form of his turf horses on dirt for a change? Maybe? Looked good in the Alysheba (Gr II) against much lesser, but horrid in the Grade 1 Stephen F Foster which is the quality that he's running against here. I think he gets overbet and is a leave-out horse except at the bottom end of one's exotics.
3. Dalmore (Ricardo Santana/Bob Hess Jr.) [30-1] - A horse with some tactical speed, but not a lot, that should find himself near the front of the Whitney before falling back to near last as the true speed in this race takes over. He's in here, and will compete with the pace, making it an honest race, but that's about the best you can say about him. Pass. If he beats me I'm wrong.
4. Mind Your Biscuits (Joel Rosario/Chad Summers) [2-1] - Here's your wildcard. One of the top 5 sprinters in the world seeks to lengthen this race and obviously Summers figures he's in with a chance. The problem is we just don't know if he can go this far. What we do know is that, because of his name, he'll probably get too much play to really take seriously as a betting option. That's too bad because this is one of my favorite active horses right now. I'll include him in my exotics, probably near the top.
5. Discreet Lover (Manny Franco/Uriah St. Louis) [30-1] - A tough horse that always seems to finish just off the board in Grade 1 Stakes races. I see the same for him here. Against this field it will seem like his win in the Grade III Excelsior was a LONG TIME AGO and there's nothing in his form since then that makes me feel he'll compete here. The most interesting bet for him might be between Dalmore for who finishes last in this race.
6. Diversify (Irad Ortiz Jr./Rick Violette) [7-5] - I could see him going off as less than an even-money favorite and it wouldn't be out of line. His last two races have been wins in the Commentator and the Gr II Suburban Handicap where he flat outran a field that included War Story, Tapwrit, Hoppertunity and Discreet Lover. The thing is, I don't think he's going to get challenged on the lead except by Dalmore, who is far slower than anything that challenged him in the Suburban. He'll be at the top of my exotics but the odds will be too small for a win bet.
7. Good Samaritan (Jose Ortiz/Bill Mott) [12-1] - I'm not too concerned with the outside post because Good Samaritan is a closer who's going to have to hope for a hot pace where he can sweep up the pieces. IF Mind Your Biscuits gets involved with Diversify that could happen. In my opinion he's your best chance to beat the favorite and I'll be keying on him with a win bet and hoping to catch a price. In my exotics however I'll have him finishing 2nd - 4th.
8. McCracken (Brian Hernandez Jr./Ian Wilkes) [15-1] - Every year there is a horse that I like for which the connections continue to stubbornly place them in the wrong races. McCracken is my horse this year. I LOVE him as a miler, I don't like him at all at 1 1/8th. I think he'll be running around trying to see if he can come in 3rd or 4th as he starts to fade at the Mile marker. I will use him in the bottom of my exotics, but that's about it. Would LOVE to see him run in some mile races later in the year.
Picks: 6-4-7-1
Bets: Too be determined closer to post time.
Tuesday, July 31, 2018
Horse Racing: The 2018 West Virginia Derby
Continuing the best part of the horse racing calendar is this one, the 2018 West Virginia Derby. One of my favorite races to watch, and bet, it runs 1 1/8th miles over the dirt track at Mountaineer. It's sometimes shrouded by the Whitney, but it shouldn't be, because it always boasts a strong, evenly matched field which makes for some interesting betting angles.
Here are my thoughts of the entries, with post positions, M/L Odds, jockeys and trainers listed.
1. Lionite (David Cabrera/Steve Asmussen) [12-1] - This son of Quality Road might have had his best races as a 2-yr old, but trainer Steve Asmussen is hoping he hasn't. His biggest win was the ungraded Prairie Mile but he's struggled to compete in his last two races, finishing 7th in an Allowance race at Churchill Downs, although he did run a solid third in the Iowa Derby on July 6th. Asmussen has had success at this track, but this one will need to improve mightily to contend. Plus, not a fan of his inside post draw. Pass.
2. Draft Pick (Joe Talamo/Peter Eurton) [5-2] - This WAS your Los Alamitos Derby winner until Once on Whiskey came driving down the stretch to beat him by a nose. Possibly forgotten in all of that was the fact that this horse soundly beat Ax Man, who was considered a potential Top 5 horse in his class at the time. The good news for Draft Pick is that the pace in this race seems as if it's going to be a LOT slower, which means that he might have enough in the tank to hold off Once on Whiskey this time around. Not my key horse here, but he'll play a HUGE role in all of my wagering. I'll be watching the odds to see if he's playable straight up or not right up until post time.
3. Caloric (Ricardo Meijas/Odin Londono Jr.) [25-1] - There was a time that this horse built up a pretty good buzz. He won two claiming races in a row and appeared to be ready to compete with the top horses in this year's 3yo class. But then he bombed, finishing a way-back 7th in the Tampa Bay Derby, 4th in the Tom Ridge and an uninspiring 7th in the Ohio Derby. He'll have to prove me wrong to win here, because I'm passing on him, won't even be included at the bottom of my exotics.
4. King Cause (Julien Laparoux/Doug O'Neill) [20-1] - Yet another horse where I'm struggling to come up with a case for him winning. He's been atrocious when facing similar competition, including finishing next to last in the Lazarro Barrera Stakes, the Affirmed and the Los Alamitos Derby. I think he needs a big improvement just to qualify for the bottom of my exotics. Full pass on this one. If he beats me, then I'm wrong.
5. Once on Whiskey (Flavian Prat/Bob Baffert) [2-1] - One of the pure closers that I frequently bet on, I typically like a horse that can rate some. But Once on Whiskey has a great late move that served him well against a hot pace in the Los Alamitos, and might let him down here. My hope is that he sucks up all of the money leaving better odds below. Still, you'd be a fool to not include him in your exotics.
6. Rugbyman (Jorge Vargas Jr./Graham Motion) [8-1] - I can see a scenario where Rugbyman emerges victorious in this race. In fact, to me it's the most likely scenario. He ran 2nd in the Prince Lucky in June and then 4th in the Dwyer behind Firenze Fire, Seven Trumpets and Mendelssohn. His biggest win was his maiden win, by 14 1/2 lengths at Belmont. IF he can show a little improvement I think he rates off the front and holds off a hard charging Once on Whiskey. I'm hoping he climbs a little in the odds to make him my upset pick for this race.
7. Pamir (Luis Quinones/Pavel Vaschenko) [30-1] - The local horse. A horse who have never ran against Stakes company and has ran all three of his lifetime races at Mountaineer. He broke his maiden and then crossed the line 2nd in an allowance before winning by DQ. Look, he'll be the favorite of the local crowd but I honestly think he'll be battling for last in this race. If anything Quinones might try to take him out quickly but I don't think he's got what he needs to compete here.
8. High North (Florent Giroux/Brad Cox [9-2] - In every race there is a "sharp" horse that tends to take most of the play from those "in the know". I think for the West Virginia Derby that horse is going to be High North. He's coming off a win in the un-graded Ohio Derby (where he beat Lionite and Mr. Freeze) and he did win the Northern Spur, albeit over lesser company. Expect everyone to say he's got "the best chance to pull an upset" here but I think that honor truly lies elsewhere. He'll factor into the bottom of my exotics but I don't see using him anywhere else.
Picks: 5-2-6-8
Bets: We'll decide that on race day when the odds have a chance to settle a tad.
Here are my thoughts of the entries, with post positions, M/L Odds, jockeys and trainers listed.
1. Lionite (David Cabrera/Steve Asmussen) [12-1] - This son of Quality Road might have had his best races as a 2-yr old, but trainer Steve Asmussen is hoping he hasn't. His biggest win was the ungraded Prairie Mile but he's struggled to compete in his last two races, finishing 7th in an Allowance race at Churchill Downs, although he did run a solid third in the Iowa Derby on July 6th. Asmussen has had success at this track, but this one will need to improve mightily to contend. Plus, not a fan of his inside post draw. Pass.
2. Draft Pick (Joe Talamo/Peter Eurton) [5-2] - This WAS your Los Alamitos Derby winner until Once on Whiskey came driving down the stretch to beat him by a nose. Possibly forgotten in all of that was the fact that this horse soundly beat Ax Man, who was considered a potential Top 5 horse in his class at the time. The good news for Draft Pick is that the pace in this race seems as if it's going to be a LOT slower, which means that he might have enough in the tank to hold off Once on Whiskey this time around. Not my key horse here, but he'll play a HUGE role in all of my wagering. I'll be watching the odds to see if he's playable straight up or not right up until post time.
3. Caloric (Ricardo Meijas/Odin Londono Jr.) [25-1] - There was a time that this horse built up a pretty good buzz. He won two claiming races in a row and appeared to be ready to compete with the top horses in this year's 3yo class. But then he bombed, finishing a way-back 7th in the Tampa Bay Derby, 4th in the Tom Ridge and an uninspiring 7th in the Ohio Derby. He'll have to prove me wrong to win here, because I'm passing on him, won't even be included at the bottom of my exotics.
4. King Cause (Julien Laparoux/Doug O'Neill) [20-1] - Yet another horse where I'm struggling to come up with a case for him winning. He's been atrocious when facing similar competition, including finishing next to last in the Lazarro Barrera Stakes, the Affirmed and the Los Alamitos Derby. I think he needs a big improvement just to qualify for the bottom of my exotics. Full pass on this one. If he beats me, then I'm wrong.
5. Once on Whiskey (Flavian Prat/Bob Baffert) [2-1] - One of the pure closers that I frequently bet on, I typically like a horse that can rate some. But Once on Whiskey has a great late move that served him well against a hot pace in the Los Alamitos, and might let him down here. My hope is that he sucks up all of the money leaving better odds below. Still, you'd be a fool to not include him in your exotics.
6. Rugbyman (Jorge Vargas Jr./Graham Motion) [8-1] - I can see a scenario where Rugbyman emerges victorious in this race. In fact, to me it's the most likely scenario. He ran 2nd in the Prince Lucky in June and then 4th in the Dwyer behind Firenze Fire, Seven Trumpets and Mendelssohn. His biggest win was his maiden win, by 14 1/2 lengths at Belmont. IF he can show a little improvement I think he rates off the front and holds off a hard charging Once on Whiskey. I'm hoping he climbs a little in the odds to make him my upset pick for this race.
7. Pamir (Luis Quinones/Pavel Vaschenko) [30-1] - The local horse. A horse who have never ran against Stakes company and has ran all three of his lifetime races at Mountaineer. He broke his maiden and then crossed the line 2nd in an allowance before winning by DQ. Look, he'll be the favorite of the local crowd but I honestly think he'll be battling for last in this race. If anything Quinones might try to take him out quickly but I don't think he's got what he needs to compete here.
8. High North (Florent Giroux/Brad Cox [9-2] - In every race there is a "sharp" horse that tends to take most of the play from those "in the know". I think for the West Virginia Derby that horse is going to be High North. He's coming off a win in the un-graded Ohio Derby (where he beat Lionite and Mr. Freeze) and he did win the Northern Spur, albeit over lesser company. Expect everyone to say he's got "the best chance to pull an upset" here but I think that honor truly lies elsewhere. He'll factor into the bottom of my exotics but I don't see using him anywhere else.
Picks: 5-2-6-8
Bets: We'll decide that on race day when the odds have a chance to settle a tad.
Quick Thoughts: NBA/MGM Gaming Deal.
The MGM can market itself as the "Official Betting Partner" of the NBA
NBA Signs deal with MGM. ESPN.com
The deal itself is for a reported $25 Million over 3 years. Per the article above it allows MGM-ran sports books to use league logos, highlights and names, have access to their direct data feeds as well as the above-mentioned marketing opportunities.
Good for both parties.
To this fan/blogger, this seems like a preferable way for the leagues to capitalize on gaming revenues, through contracts, than relying on statutory 'gaming taxes' which the leagues laughably referred to as "integrity fees" in the past.
Not that the leagues will stop trying to force states to pay them money for legalized gaming, after all the goal is to increase revenue, not to ensure integrity, but they should have more success signing deals with the individual books allowing them to utilize their trademarks and intellectual property than they will trying to coerce states to give them money. In many cases, the States are no friends with the leagues due to the latter's tireless efforts to block their issuance of sports bets in the first place.
I would imagine the big fish in these negotiations is going to be the NFL and, if they decide to get on board, the NCAA (or, more likely, the individual conferences/teams etc.) with Major League Baseball and the National Hockey League taking up the rear. It's also possible that the European Soccer Leagues (sans Italy) might benefit from this as well.
I think this is a good deal for both the league and MGM and hope to see more of the same from the other leagues, which would be a much more sensible way to address this issue going forward.
NBA Signs deal with MGM. ESPN.com
The deal itself is for a reported $25 Million over 3 years. Per the article above it allows MGM-ran sports books to use league logos, highlights and names, have access to their direct data feeds as well as the above-mentioned marketing opportunities.
Good for both parties.
To this fan/blogger, this seems like a preferable way for the leagues to capitalize on gaming revenues, through contracts, than relying on statutory 'gaming taxes' which the leagues laughably referred to as "integrity fees" in the past.
Not that the leagues will stop trying to force states to pay them money for legalized gaming, after all the goal is to increase revenue, not to ensure integrity, but they should have more success signing deals with the individual books allowing them to utilize their trademarks and intellectual property than they will trying to coerce states to give them money. In many cases, the States are no friends with the leagues due to the latter's tireless efforts to block their issuance of sports bets in the first place.
I would imagine the big fish in these negotiations is going to be the NFL and, if they decide to get on board, the NCAA (or, more likely, the individual conferences/teams etc.) with Major League Baseball and the National Hockey League taking up the rear. It's also possible that the European Soccer Leagues (sans Italy) might benefit from this as well.
I think this is a good deal for both the league and MGM and hope to see more of the same from the other leagues, which would be a much more sensible way to address this issue going forward.
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