A rare combined post. Due to real life scheduling I have a limited amount of time this week. So here are both presented with no comment. Sorry.
The Week Nine FIVE
1. Ball State @ Ohio (-10) - Pick: Ohio to cover -10
2. Baylor @ West Virginia (-14) - Pick: West Virginia to cover -14
3. App State (-8) @ Georgia Southern - Pick: Appalachian State to cover -8
4. Wake Forest @ Louisville (-2.5) - Pick: Wake Forest to win on the ML
5. Texas A&M @ Mississippi State (-2.5) - Pick: Texas A&M to win on the ML
The NFL Three and OUT
1. Philadelphia (-3) @ Jacksonville - Pick: Philadelphia to cover -3
2. Broncos @ Chiefs (-9) - Pick: Chiefs to cover -9
3. Saints @ Vikings (-2.5) - Pick: Vikings to cover -2.5
Since I'm picking so early the service that I use for lines (ESPN) is not showing the over/under totals for most of the games yet so I'm not picking against any this week. This will make it harder to have a winning week because I LOVE total bets more than point spread ones. Going forward there will be a lot more of the former coming than the latter.
Enjoy the games, see you next week.
Tuesday, October 23, 2018
Monday, October 22, 2018
Recapping the weekend that was. (The Week Eight FIVE and the Week Seven Three and OUT)
Into every life a little rain must fall. Right now this betting SZN is my rain. It's not that I'm running bad overall, I'm just running bad on my FIVE and Three and OUT picks. I'm running REALLY bad on my college football FIVE, despite having a decent record overall for the year in college football.
As a reminder, I don't play all of my FIVE picks, they're just picks. Some times the lines go wrong on game day or I find something else that moves into an area that I like. That's the problem with picking early, things aren't always available when I can finally get to a legal book.
That said, things are looking iffy for a winning FIVE result this year.
Let's see what happened:
1. Minnesota @ Nebraska (-4) [56]
Pick: Minnesota to COVER +4.5
Result: Minnesota 28 Nebraska 53
I was very surprised by this one. I thought that the Gophers would put up a fight at least against Nebraska but I was wrong. The Cornhuskers jumped on them early and scored often, grabbing Scott Frost's first win. PJ Fleck seems to have lost this team.
2 & 3 Oregon @ Washington State (-3) [66]
Pick(s): Oregon to WIN on the ML and OVER 66.
Result: Oregon 20 Washington State 34
I had a lot riding on this game and missed all the way around. Oregon came out flat, surprisingly, and Wazzu just trucked 'em. The Pac 12 is a mess this season and it's not looking like there's going to be clarity any time soon.
4. Ohio State (-13.5) @ Purdue [68]
Pick: Ohio State to COVER -13.5
Result: Ohio State 20 Purdue 49
This was less of an upset and more of a public mugging. Ohio State has real issues and they are all seemingly created by Urban Meyer. As a Michigan fan I can't say that I'm all torn up about this result, but it doesn't make me happy either. If you remember the wife is an Ohio State fan and this made for a sad, Saturday night.
5. Mississippi State @ LSU (-6.5) [45]
Pick: LSU to COVER -6.5
Result: Mississippi State 2 LSU 19
An ugly win is a win is a win and LSU kept me from being blanked. The Tigers are pretty good, we'll learn just how good in a couple of weeks when they take on the one team we KNOW is good: Alabama.
Total for the week 1-4 Season 16-23-1 (.400) Admittedly not where we want to be.
NFL Three and OUT
Unlike college I'm doing marginally better on the season for the pros, but I'm still lagging behind where I want to be. And Sunday was a dog of a day to boot. Fortunately, I spent the day away from the TV running errands and spending time consoling the wife so I didn't have to sit and watch the disaster unfold.
On to the games:
1. Tennessee @ LA Chargers (-6.5) [45]
Pick: LA Chargers to COVER -6.5
Result: Tennessee 19 LA Chargers 20
So, the Titans scored a TD at the end and only lost because they went for two. But that time expiring TD killed the cover on this one and well, that's just the way things go sometimes. Good pick, bad result.
2. Minnesota (-3) @ NY Jets [47]
Pick: Minnesota to COVER -3
Result: Minnesota 37 NY Jets 17
The Vikings were just too good. To me this wasn't a hard game to predict, but there was a LOT of sharp money on the Jets which deflated the line to our benefit.
3. Houston @ Jacksonville (-4.5) [42.5]
Pick: Jacksonville to COVER -4.5
Result: Houston 20 Jacksonville 7
My pattern of fading the Texans didn't pay off this week, so I might put that to bed for a week or three given that their schedule coming up is awful. Then again I MIGHT decide to play them on this Thursday game against Miami depending on the line.
Weekly Result: 1-2 Season 10-11 (.476)
On to the next weekend then.....
As a reminder, I don't play all of my FIVE picks, they're just picks. Some times the lines go wrong on game day or I find something else that moves into an area that I like. That's the problem with picking early, things aren't always available when I can finally get to a legal book.
That said, things are looking iffy for a winning FIVE result this year.
Let's see what happened:
1. Minnesota @ Nebraska (-4) [56]
Pick: Minnesota to COVER +4.5
Result: Minnesota 28 Nebraska 53
I was very surprised by this one. I thought that the Gophers would put up a fight at least against Nebraska but I was wrong. The Cornhuskers jumped on them early and scored often, grabbing Scott Frost's first win. PJ Fleck seems to have lost this team.
2 & 3 Oregon @ Washington State (-3) [66]
Pick(s): Oregon to WIN on the ML and OVER 66.
Result: Oregon 20 Washington State 34
I had a lot riding on this game and missed all the way around. Oregon came out flat, surprisingly, and Wazzu just trucked 'em. The Pac 12 is a mess this season and it's not looking like there's going to be clarity any time soon.
4. Ohio State (-13.5) @ Purdue [68]
Pick: Ohio State to COVER -13.5
Result: Ohio State 20 Purdue 49
This was less of an upset and more of a public mugging. Ohio State has real issues and they are all seemingly created by Urban Meyer. As a Michigan fan I can't say that I'm all torn up about this result, but it doesn't make me happy either. If you remember the wife is an Ohio State fan and this made for a sad, Saturday night.
5. Mississippi State @ LSU (-6.5) [45]
Pick: LSU to COVER -6.5
Result: Mississippi State 2 LSU 19
An ugly win is a win is a win and LSU kept me from being blanked. The Tigers are pretty good, we'll learn just how good in a couple of weeks when they take on the one team we KNOW is good: Alabama.
Total for the week 1-4 Season 16-23-1 (.400) Admittedly not where we want to be.
NFL Three and OUT
Unlike college I'm doing marginally better on the season for the pros, but I'm still lagging behind where I want to be. And Sunday was a dog of a day to boot. Fortunately, I spent the day away from the TV running errands and spending time consoling the wife so I didn't have to sit and watch the disaster unfold.
On to the games:
1. Tennessee @ LA Chargers (-6.5) [45]
Pick: LA Chargers to COVER -6.5
Result: Tennessee 19 LA Chargers 20
So, the Titans scored a TD at the end and only lost because they went for two. But that time expiring TD killed the cover on this one and well, that's just the way things go sometimes. Good pick, bad result.
2. Minnesota (-3) @ NY Jets [47]
Pick: Minnesota to COVER -3
Result: Minnesota 37 NY Jets 17
The Vikings were just too good. To me this wasn't a hard game to predict, but there was a LOT of sharp money on the Jets which deflated the line to our benefit.
3. Houston @ Jacksonville (-4.5) [42.5]
Pick: Jacksonville to COVER -4.5
Result: Houston 20 Jacksonville 7
My pattern of fading the Texans didn't pay off this week, so I might put that to bed for a week or three given that their schedule coming up is awful. Then again I MIGHT decide to play them on this Thursday game against Miami depending on the line.
Weekly Result: 1-2 Season 10-11 (.476)
On to the next weekend then.....
Thursday, October 18, 2018
An Open Letter To Downtown Las Vegas: Don't do it.
Dear Downtown Las Vegas Casino Operators:
First off, congratulations! While the Las Vegas Strip is facing rough economic times it appears that your gambling takes are increasing. While the Strip is rapidly falling off a cliff, you're seeing gamblers coming in at levels you never expected. Resorts are being built, being refurbished, have completed successful refurbishments and the Fremont Street Canopy is going to get a lot clearer and brighter.
So, things are going well. The area around you has been revitalized (sort-of) and people are starting to rediscover what made you great in the first place.
And, how are you responding?
By threatening to mess it all up, Royally.
It's so bad even downtown regular Royal Flusher has taken notice and is concerned.
Here's the problem. If you ruin the value proposition that is (still) Downtown Las Vegas, you ruin the reason people go there.
You're not the Strip. Even the Strip isn't what the Strip thinks it is, and the numbers are showing that. Currently people can gamble closer and closer to their hometown, and the options are expanding every day. Heading to Vegas used to mean three things:
1. The Best Resorts - Between the amenities, the customer service, the perks and the illusion of luxury the Vegas Strip used to offer an experience like no other. The problem is that unique experience has been all but duplicated across the country, with lower resort fees, lower prices and, in many cases, better customer service.
2. The Best Gambling - For decades Las Vegas was the gold standard for gambling. You knew, when you placed your bets, that you were getting a fair game, you would get paid for your wins, and there were rules in place to protect both you and the casino from fraud and graft. You also knew that you were going to get odds that, while still casino friendly, were at least fair. Vegas has gone away from that now under a flood of 6/5 Black Jack, Triple Zero Roulette and worse Video Poker Pay Tables than you can find almost anywhere. 7/5 Double Double Bonus, 6/5 Black Jack and Triple Zero Roulette are really only "things" in Clark County. You won't find these horribly player-unfriendly rules anywhere EXCEPT for the place that still has the gall to market itself as a gambling mecca.
3. The Best Value - Look, I get that the days of cheap rooms and cheap eats are gone. We live in an era of celebrity chefs and suites and terraces and big name DJ's at the pools. But what we're starting to see now is the nickel-and-dime charges that really anger patrons. From paid parking to resort fees that often outpace the nightly published rate, to CNF fees that are added to a restaurant bill and provide the patron with....nothing.
All three of the things that used to bring people to the Vegas Strip in droves are now creeping into the management mindset downtown. This is what's commonly known as a "bad thing" and by all accounts it's going to get worse, especially if Tillman Fertitta is successful in his efforts to merge with, and take controlling interest in, Caesars the slow creep of fees and ROI threaten to totally render downtown useless.
As Royal Flusher stated: Are we doomed to a future of crap 7/5 Double Double Bonus video poker machines and 6/5 black jack with horrid rules and Triple Zero Roulette downtown? Have we reached the point where even old Vegas succumbs to the "suck the player dry as quickly as possible" mentality?
One of the biggest lies about downtown Las Vegas is that the slots are "looser" than those one can find on the Strip. In large part this illusion has been created by superior Video Poker Pay Tables (VP is considered a slot for reporting purposes) bumping up the slot hold percentage across the board. Many people, myself included, feel that the Downtown "slot takeout percentage" is actually LOWER than that on the Strip, and that the bump is only realized because of better VP pay-tables. If downtown decides to get rid of those then people will see just how poorly they're being treated in casinos ran by Boyd, Tilman Fertitta and the Stephens brothers, that's when things will really take a turn for the worse.
Currently you downtown casino operators are trying to position yourselves in marketing as the "fun" way to do Vegas. You have Stephens running all around town acting like a man of the people, you have Boyd and Pinnacle showing "jackpot" winners on Twitter and you have Golden Nugget acting like the Belle of the Ball in the middle of a bunch of paupers.
If all of that changes, if downtown becomes nothing more than a glorified "Strip North" then there will be no reason for people to come downtown any longer.
The Strip is still bigger, brighter, fancier and better in many aspects. All you'll be stuck with is nostalgia and poor odds.
Don't do it.
Thank you for your time.
First off, congratulations! While the Las Vegas Strip is facing rough economic times it appears that your gambling takes are increasing. While the Strip is rapidly falling off a cliff, you're seeing gamblers coming in at levels you never expected. Resorts are being built, being refurbished, have completed successful refurbishments and the Fremont Street Canopy is going to get a lot clearer and brighter.
So, things are going well. The area around you has been revitalized (sort-of) and people are starting to rediscover what made you great in the first place.
And, how are you responding?
By threatening to mess it all up, Royally.
It's so bad even downtown regular Royal Flusher has taken notice and is concerned.
I think maybe we are on the tail end of having downtown as a value destination. Three years from now, we'll know if it's all 7/5 crap poker machines.
Here's the problem. If you ruin the value proposition that is (still) Downtown Las Vegas, you ruin the reason people go there.
You're not the Strip. Even the Strip isn't what the Strip thinks it is, and the numbers are showing that. Currently people can gamble closer and closer to their hometown, and the options are expanding every day. Heading to Vegas used to mean three things:
1. The Best Resorts - Between the amenities, the customer service, the perks and the illusion of luxury the Vegas Strip used to offer an experience like no other. The problem is that unique experience has been all but duplicated across the country, with lower resort fees, lower prices and, in many cases, better customer service.
2. The Best Gambling - For decades Las Vegas was the gold standard for gambling. You knew, when you placed your bets, that you were getting a fair game, you would get paid for your wins, and there were rules in place to protect both you and the casino from fraud and graft. You also knew that you were going to get odds that, while still casino friendly, were at least fair. Vegas has gone away from that now under a flood of 6/5 Black Jack, Triple Zero Roulette and worse Video Poker Pay Tables than you can find almost anywhere. 7/5 Double Double Bonus, 6/5 Black Jack and Triple Zero Roulette are really only "things" in Clark County. You won't find these horribly player-unfriendly rules anywhere EXCEPT for the place that still has the gall to market itself as a gambling mecca.
3. The Best Value - Look, I get that the days of cheap rooms and cheap eats are gone. We live in an era of celebrity chefs and suites and terraces and big name DJ's at the pools. But what we're starting to see now is the nickel-and-dime charges that really anger patrons. From paid parking to resort fees that often outpace the nightly published rate, to CNF fees that are added to a restaurant bill and provide the patron with....nothing.
All three of the things that used to bring people to the Vegas Strip in droves are now creeping into the management mindset downtown. This is what's commonly known as a "bad thing" and by all accounts it's going to get worse, especially if Tillman Fertitta is successful in his efforts to merge with, and take controlling interest in, Caesars the slow creep of fees and ROI threaten to totally render downtown useless.
As Royal Flusher stated: Are we doomed to a future of crap 7/5 Double Double Bonus video poker machines and 6/5 black jack with horrid rules and Triple Zero Roulette downtown? Have we reached the point where even old Vegas succumbs to the "suck the player dry as quickly as possible" mentality?
One of the biggest lies about downtown Las Vegas is that the slots are "looser" than those one can find on the Strip. In large part this illusion has been created by superior Video Poker Pay Tables (VP is considered a slot for reporting purposes) bumping up the slot hold percentage across the board. Many people, myself included, feel that the Downtown "slot takeout percentage" is actually LOWER than that on the Strip, and that the bump is only realized because of better VP pay-tables. If downtown decides to get rid of those then people will see just how poorly they're being treated in casinos ran by Boyd, Tilman Fertitta and the Stephens brothers, that's when things will really take a turn for the worse.
Currently you downtown casino operators are trying to position yourselves in marketing as the "fun" way to do Vegas. You have Stephens running all around town acting like a man of the people, you have Boyd and Pinnacle showing "jackpot" winners on Twitter and you have Golden Nugget acting like the Belle of the Ball in the middle of a bunch of paupers.
If all of that changes, if downtown becomes nothing more than a glorified "Strip North" then there will be no reason for people to come downtown any longer.
The Strip is still bigger, brighter, fancier and better in many aspects. All you'll be stuck with is nostalgia and poor odds.
Don't do it.
Thank you for your time.
College Football: The Week 8 FIVE
As we get neck-deep into conference play we're starting to figure out more and more who these teams are, who's good, who's not, and who might have the tools to make runs at conference championships.
1. Minnesota @ Nebraska (-4) [56]
Pick: Minnesota to COVER +4.5
Just when you think Nebraska is going to get a win, things fall apart. A lot of people are backing the Huskers because they think they are "due". That's a horrible reason to back a team. Minnesota is not a very good football team this year, but Nebraska is a BAD football team right now. I still think Scott Frost will turn this around, but he's going to need some time.
2 & 3 Oregon @ Washington State (-3) [66]
Pick(s): Oregon to WIN on the ML and OVER 66.
A rare Two-fer in one game here as I really like what head coach Mario Cristobal is putting together in Eugene. Granted, at times Wazzu can shock you with a strong defensive effort, but I think the team that scores last here wins. I expect a shootout won by the Ducks and Herbert.
4. Ohio State (-13.5) @ Purdue [68]
Pick: Ohio State to COVER -13.5
I have the talent gap between the two teams being fairly wide, and Ohio State understands what they need to do to teams like Purdue in order to set themselves up for the CFP. The Buckeye defense has survived the shock of losing their best player for the season, and is playing good, aggressive ball right now.
5. Mississippi State @ LSU (-6.5) [45]
Pick: LSU to COVER -6.5
I really like what LSU has on the field this year and I think Coach Orgeron should be in the running for coach of the year. The Bulldogs have talent, but are a much better team at home than on the road. Plus, this game is being played in Baton Rogue, at night, under the lights in Death Valley. There's not many better home field advantages than that.
Other Games:
Memphis @ Missouri (-9.5) - Part of me likes the visiting Tigers to pull an upset over the home Tigers here. Yes, it's a dreaded "SEC game" for an American school, but the American conference has shown a proclivity to shine in games such as this. I'm laying a little on the Memphis side of this one, but not as part of my FIVE.
Alabama (-29) @ Tennessee - The Tide are quite possibly the only really good team in college football right now. I think we're going to see how good against a Tennessee team that's showing signs of improvement, but who catch the #1 team in the country at exactly the wrong time for their development.
NC State @ Clemson (-17) - The Wolfpack have a history of playing Clemson close, and the Tigers come into this game with a host of questions on offense, a defense that's not been as dominant as many expected, and looking for all the world that they're ripe for an upset. You know what THAT means.....
Oklahoma (-8) @ TCU - If there was any way OU would slide to -6.5 I would jump all over this, but at -8 I'm just not a fan. That said TCU has real problems right now both on offense and defense and OU is ANGRY, understanding they need to run it up to impress the CFP committee.
Games in which I have a rooting interest:
Air Force (-10) @ UNLV [57] - The Desert Rug Rats have fallen off a cliff after the Armani Rodgers injury and there are real rumblings that head coach Tony Sanchez is not the one to lead this team to a winning record. They have been way over matched in the last two games since Rodgers went out and the coaching staff seems to have no clue what to do. Air Force is not a very good team this year, but they're probably good enough to run roughshod over the Rebels. Drink heavy Rebel fans, this one's gonna hurt.
And Finally.....
Michigan (-7) @ Michigan State [41] - Another week, another Michigan line that I just hate. While I'm happy that the team showed development and progress against Wisconsin, it's also possible that the Badgers were highly overrated this year, while it's also possible that Sparty is back to being good. For all of the talk about Michigan "controlling their playoff destiny" the next two weekends will prove that true or false. This is a murderer's row of games. Wisconsin, AT Michigan State and AT Penn State. Get the win here Michigan, then worry about Happy Valley.
Next week I'll release my top 10. Because I think at that point we'll have enough of a sample size to go on.
Enjoy the games, fade or follow these picks, whichever you choose.
1. Minnesota @ Nebraska (-4) [56]
Pick: Minnesota to COVER +4.5
Just when you think Nebraska is going to get a win, things fall apart. A lot of people are backing the Huskers because they think they are "due". That's a horrible reason to back a team. Minnesota is not a very good football team this year, but Nebraska is a BAD football team right now. I still think Scott Frost will turn this around, but he's going to need some time.
2 & 3 Oregon @ Washington State (-3) [66]
Pick(s): Oregon to WIN on the ML and OVER 66.
A rare Two-fer in one game here as I really like what head coach Mario Cristobal is putting together in Eugene. Granted, at times Wazzu can shock you with a strong defensive effort, but I think the team that scores last here wins. I expect a shootout won by the Ducks and Herbert.
4. Ohio State (-13.5) @ Purdue [68]
Pick: Ohio State to COVER -13.5
I have the talent gap between the two teams being fairly wide, and Ohio State understands what they need to do to teams like Purdue in order to set themselves up for the CFP. The Buckeye defense has survived the shock of losing their best player for the season, and is playing good, aggressive ball right now.
5. Mississippi State @ LSU (-6.5) [45]
Pick: LSU to COVER -6.5
I really like what LSU has on the field this year and I think Coach Orgeron should be in the running for coach of the year. The Bulldogs have talent, but are a much better team at home than on the road. Plus, this game is being played in Baton Rogue, at night, under the lights in Death Valley. There's not many better home field advantages than that.
Other Games:
Memphis @ Missouri (-9.5) - Part of me likes the visiting Tigers to pull an upset over the home Tigers here. Yes, it's a dreaded "SEC game" for an American school, but the American conference has shown a proclivity to shine in games such as this. I'm laying a little on the Memphis side of this one, but not as part of my FIVE.
Alabama (-29) @ Tennessee - The Tide are quite possibly the only really good team in college football right now. I think we're going to see how good against a Tennessee team that's showing signs of improvement, but who catch the #1 team in the country at exactly the wrong time for their development.
NC State @ Clemson (-17) - The Wolfpack have a history of playing Clemson close, and the Tigers come into this game with a host of questions on offense, a defense that's not been as dominant as many expected, and looking for all the world that they're ripe for an upset. You know what THAT means.....
Oklahoma (-8) @ TCU - If there was any way OU would slide to -6.5 I would jump all over this, but at -8 I'm just not a fan. That said TCU has real problems right now both on offense and defense and OU is ANGRY, understanding they need to run it up to impress the CFP committee.
Games in which I have a rooting interest:
Air Force (-10) @ UNLV [57] - The Desert Rug Rats have fallen off a cliff after the Armani Rodgers injury and there are real rumblings that head coach Tony Sanchez is not the one to lead this team to a winning record. They have been way over matched in the last two games since Rodgers went out and the coaching staff seems to have no clue what to do. Air Force is not a very good team this year, but they're probably good enough to run roughshod over the Rebels. Drink heavy Rebel fans, this one's gonna hurt.
And Finally.....
Michigan (-7) @ Michigan State [41] - Another week, another Michigan line that I just hate. While I'm happy that the team showed development and progress against Wisconsin, it's also possible that the Badgers were highly overrated this year, while it's also possible that Sparty is back to being good. For all of the talk about Michigan "controlling their playoff destiny" the next two weekends will prove that true or false. This is a murderer's row of games. Wisconsin, AT Michigan State and AT Penn State. Get the win here Michigan, then worry about Happy Valley.
Next week I'll release my top 10. Because I think at that point we'll have enough of a sample size to go on.
Enjoy the games, fade or follow these picks, whichever you choose.
Wednesday, October 17, 2018
All sports: The weekly grab-bag.
So much going on in the world of sports, and sports betting, right now that I don't have time to fully dive into all of it. So here's a mish-mash of stuff that's caught my eye. (Some will have news links, some won't)
A. There are no good college football teams out there today except for Alabama. Every team is capable of losing week-in and week out. For those who say "Alabama hasn't played anyone yet" that's bull. Texas A&M is a good team, Alabama made them look bad. When Bama plays good competition they're so far above them that they make them look poor. I'm not suggesting that we gift wrap the CFP to Alabama, but right now they're clearly that much better than everyone else.
B. There's something ironic about Boston fans and media getting fired up over someone recording their team. Nevermind that, according to the letter of the law, the Astros did nothing wrong. It's enough for Boston that someone else might have been caught doing something that might, possibly be sort-of, wrong. They are the worst fan base in North America and it's not close.
C. The NBA is back. Adjust your television watching accordingly. (And your betting)
D. William Hill is lobbying for the power to not have their mistakes count against them. The worst sports book operator in Las Vegas is now trying to take their fan-unfriendly policies that they enjoy in Europe and move them over to the US. The field is already tilted in their favor, now they want to not have to pay any penalty for their own incompetence. You should never lay action with William Hill. Ever.
E. UNLV Football is struggling, again. Yes, there have been injuries, but every team has those. The fact is the team has not progressed much since Sanchez took over. As hard as it would be for the program it's time for a change at the top.
F. The Fraud Trial in College Basketball is a sham. It will lead to no meaningful change, and will possibly result in the NCAA further restricting athlete's ability to do well. If anything it's allowing the NCAA to profit more from the athlete's than they already are.
G. The UFC is a dysfunctional mess right now. No longer a draw for their actual fights, they're having to rely on WWE style theatrics to juice numbers. Their days as a major player are closer to being finished than they are starting.
H. HUGE WEEK for Michigan. Beat Sparty.
I. The Raiders last years in Oakland could be BRUTAL Especially if rumors Gruden is going to blow the team up are true.
J. The Las Vegas Golden Knights won last night 4-1 at the Fortress. The team finally looked something like the fast skating, goal-scoring machine we saw last year. If you're a Knights fan (and as you know this blog is) then this was a welcome sight. Up next: A win streak? Let's hope.
the FIVE coming tomorrow.....
A. There are no good college football teams out there today except for Alabama. Every team is capable of losing week-in and week out. For those who say "Alabama hasn't played anyone yet" that's bull. Texas A&M is a good team, Alabama made them look bad. When Bama plays good competition they're so far above them that they make them look poor. I'm not suggesting that we gift wrap the CFP to Alabama, but right now they're clearly that much better than everyone else.
B. There's something ironic about Boston fans and media getting fired up over someone recording their team. Nevermind that, according to the letter of the law, the Astros did nothing wrong. It's enough for Boston that someone else might have been caught doing something that might, possibly be sort-of, wrong. They are the worst fan base in North America and it's not close.
C. The NBA is back. Adjust your television watching accordingly. (And your betting)
D. William Hill is lobbying for the power to not have their mistakes count against them. The worst sports book operator in Las Vegas is now trying to take their fan-unfriendly policies that they enjoy in Europe and move them over to the US. The field is already tilted in their favor, now they want to not have to pay any penalty for their own incompetence. You should never lay action with William Hill. Ever.
E. UNLV Football is struggling, again. Yes, there have been injuries, but every team has those. The fact is the team has not progressed much since Sanchez took over. As hard as it would be for the program it's time for a change at the top.
F. The Fraud Trial in College Basketball is a sham. It will lead to no meaningful change, and will possibly result in the NCAA further restricting athlete's ability to do well. If anything it's allowing the NCAA to profit more from the athlete's than they already are.
G. The UFC is a dysfunctional mess right now. No longer a draw for their actual fights, they're having to rely on WWE style theatrics to juice numbers. Their days as a major player are closer to being finished than they are starting.
H. HUGE WEEK for Michigan. Beat Sparty.
I. The Raiders last years in Oakland could be BRUTAL Especially if rumors Gruden is going to blow the team up are true.
J. The Las Vegas Golden Knights won last night 4-1 at the Fortress. The team finally looked something like the fast skating, goal-scoring machine we saw last year. If you're a Knights fan (and as you know this blog is) then this was a welcome sight. Up next: A win streak? Let's hope.
the FIVE coming tomorrow.....
The Shield: Week 7 Three and OUT
Some weeks the favorites roar......
1. Tennessee @ LA Chargers (-6.5) [45]
Pick: LA Chargers to COVER -6.5
The Titans have all sorts of issues right now, issues that the Chargers are going to exploit, especially at "home". (Although their home-field advantage is not the greatest). Mariota got sacked ELEVEN times last week. The Chargers have a good pass-rush. Uh oh.
2. Minnesota (-3) @ NY Jets [47]
Pick: Minnesota to COVER -3
I've been waiting for the Vikings to have a break out game, and I think this is the slot. The Jets have been uneven, but the Vikings defense should make things difficult for Darnold and I'm thinking Minnesota offense gets on track and they win by more than a touchdown.
3. Houston @ Jacksonville (-4.5) [42.5]
Pick: Jacksonville to COVER -4.5
I'm going back to my old strategy of fading the Houston Texans. Yes, Jacksonville looked like crap last week but the Texans didn't look much better, and have needed fortuitous coaching calls by the other side to win all three of their games. Considering I'm picking Tennessee to lose this game will be for the lead in the worst division in football, the AFC South.
Games in which I have a rooting interest:
LA Rams (-9.5) @ San Francisco [52.5]
The Rams are undefeated and looking like the best team in the NFL right now. San Fran overachieved against the Packers, but the Rams are much, much better than that. It's at home and this team is trying hard, but covering here would be a huge win.
1. Tennessee @ LA Chargers (-6.5) [45]
Pick: LA Chargers to COVER -6.5
The Titans have all sorts of issues right now, issues that the Chargers are going to exploit, especially at "home". (Although their home-field advantage is not the greatest). Mariota got sacked ELEVEN times last week. The Chargers have a good pass-rush. Uh oh.
2. Minnesota (-3) @ NY Jets [47]
Pick: Minnesota to COVER -3
I've been waiting for the Vikings to have a break out game, and I think this is the slot. The Jets have been uneven, but the Vikings defense should make things difficult for Darnold and I'm thinking Minnesota offense gets on track and they win by more than a touchdown.
3. Houston @ Jacksonville (-4.5) [42.5]
Pick: Jacksonville to COVER -4.5
I'm going back to my old strategy of fading the Houston Texans. Yes, Jacksonville looked like crap last week but the Texans didn't look much better, and have needed fortuitous coaching calls by the other side to win all three of their games. Considering I'm picking Tennessee to lose this game will be for the lead in the worst division in football, the AFC South.
Games in which I have a rooting interest:
LA Rams (-9.5) @ San Francisco [52.5]
The Rams are undefeated and looking like the best team in the NFL right now. San Fran overachieved against the Packers, but the Rams are much, much better than that. It's at home and this team is trying hard, but covering here would be a huge win.
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