I've already had one gambling trip in 2019 to start the year, a weekend run to Lake Charles where I managed to grind and claw and only wind up losing around $40 for the weekend. I was brought back on the last night by a very nice $1,000 win on Top Dollar, the first time I've gotten the top offer on that machine.
I write a LOT on this blog about gambling, on sports, horses, and in the casino, I write an awful lot about picks and bets and very little about being responsible, and I want to change that. Because gambling addiction is a real thing, given lip-service by the casino but something that affects, by estimate, fully 2% of the population with numbers that are growing.
If you've ever been to a casino you can see why. The entire environment is designed to stroke the pleasure centers in your brain and get you to lose your inhibitions and gamble more than you are comfortable risking. From the lights on the slots to skimpily clad dealers (who will smile at you, and flirt with you despite the fact that they wouldn't give you the time of day off the clock) music and HVAC systems designed to ensure that you're alert and awake, and utterly clueless about the time of day.
You won't find clocks in a casino and there's a reason for that.
I like to promote, and practice, responsible gaming. In that vein I want to go over a few key points for you to keep in mind in 2019, things that might help you keep these impulses under control.
1. The odds on every game favor the house.
This is important because most people hit the casino floor thinking they're going to "strike it rich" when the reality is, without a plan of action, what they are really priming for is to "become poor". EVERY game you play, unless you're card counting in certain rules of Black Jack, is a negative expectation game. What I mean by that is over the course of time you are going to lose because the odds are stacked against you.
Penny slots are the worst action in the casino for the player, yet year over year they are the casinos biggest money maker. Why is that? Because slots, for most people, are fun, and an easy way to gamble because there's not element of skill involved. You press the button and miraculous things happen, you get a little win, the counter goes crazy, lights and sounds (and now, chair vibrations) all act to kick in your brain's dopamine centers to provide a rush.
But, and this is important, as a gambler you do have one big advantage over the house you control and they cannot. YOU HAVE THE ABILITY TO WALK AWAY WHEN YOU ARE AHEAD.
Don't discount this, because it's important. I'm not saying to quit gambling after a win, I'm saying to take a break, enjoy the win. Maybe go back to your room if the win is big enough and put your winnings in the house safe. If you're lucky enough to get a hand-pay jackpot (a win $1,200 or more) you should always do this. Get your money, tip the attendant, and go to your room and put your winnings in the safe. Continue gambling with your original daily budget and, again important, resist the temptation to go grab those winnings and churn them back into the machine.
2. Once you win something it's YOUR money.
The biggest lie problem gamblers convince themselves of is that they're playing with "house money" after a big win. Most often what happens is that they 'donk' away all of those winnings right back to the casino. This is known as churn, and it happens to everyone. Even the most disciplined gambler has a degenerate's tale or three to share where they got a win and gave it all back chasing the great white whale of a multi-progressive jackpot. It happens, don't beat yourself up over it but LEARN from it.
On more than one occasion, early in my gambling career, I've won $500 and tried to turn it into $5000 and walked away with nothing. I've seen people up $10,000 blow it all on one hand of Black Jack because they wanted to feel the sensation of making a huge bet. I've been approached in casinos by people trying to scam me by selling me a "diamond ring" for $200 just so they can get "back in the game". In most cases these people are thieves, but in some they truly believe that the next shoe is the one that will turn their lives around.
They're wrong, and so are you.
Instead of "striking it rich" your goal on EVERY gambling trip should be to "lose a little" with anything better than that being a bonus. You accomplish this by locking away your money, not churning it back to the casino. My method for doing so is simple.
Whether playing slots or video poker my "bullets" are $40 each. That's what I put into a machine and am ready to lose each gambling 'round'. If I get a win that pushes my money count over $60 I cash out, go to the TITO exchange machine, convert it to money, pocket the winnings and continue playing with my original bullet. My winnings go to a segregated place, which then goes into the "take home" envelope at the end of the night (or, if on the unlikely event I win big, directly into the room safe. You can also get winnings in the form of a check to deposit when you get home). By following this method we have cut our losses on each gambling trip 75%, we have also come home a winner on occasion, which is probably the best feeling in the world. It has been a long time since I had a trip that was a disaster, although bad trips still happen.
Does this method take discipline? You bet it does. I'm not saying that it's easy and I'm not saying that we were initially successful at it. But over time it has become routine and we have a lot more fun now that we're pocketing wins than we were when we were churning them. We also make a game of it. My wife gets to keep all of the coins that are on the TITO when she runs it for me. Over time she's gathered over $100 in coins that she takes home and rolls, and cashes them in at the bank which provides her a bankroll on future trips.
3. If you need help, get help.
There is no shame in counselling, and there is no shame in admitting you have a problem. There are gambling hotlines advertised at every casino and a host of options you can use to ensure that you won't gamble away your life savings.
Self exclusion seems extreme, but in many cases it might be the only way that you can prevent yourself from gambling too much. Use the resources available to you, TALK to your family about your gambling and if it's affecting their lives. Don't go down the rabbit hole. If you're unsure whether or not you have a problem ask an expert. If you need help finding one contact me and I'll give you a list of resources.
Gambling should be fun. If it's not, stop. Don't EVER gamble because you NEED to win. Gamble because it's entertainment and makes things more enjoyable. The MOMENT you stop enjoying it stop.
Over the course of the year I'm going to be sharing my gambling trips and experiences. I'll share the wins, the losses, the bad beats and the miracle results. I'll share the mundane and the exciting, the grinds, the hot streaks and the cold runs. I'll do everything I can to provide the real truth of what a mid-level gambler really can expect over time. Be prepared though to see more losses than wins, more disappointment than joy. This is not a casino advert, it's real life.
I'm counting down to a trip to Las Vegas in the coming weeks, and I'll be sharing a report from that trip when I get back. In the interim, I'm going to share some more tips for responsible gaming including details about my bankroll method.
I truly hope this helps anyone who reads get more out of going to a casino. Or, at the least, you take away that it's an enjoyable read.
One final thought: Gambler's believe in luck, the casinos believe in math. Guess who's making more money?
Wednesday, January 30, 2019
Tuesday, January 29, 2019
Horse Racing: Derby Preps Abound!
Saturday is the First Saturday in February. Maybe not as famous in horse racing as "The First Saturday in May" but it could tell us a little bit about who's going to be running for the Roses on May 4th.
There are three major Derby Prep races on the calendar that you might want to consider paying attention to.
Maybe the 'highest profile' of any of these races I've always held a soft spot for this Aqueduct classic. While on paper this might seem like a 3-horse race between Admire, Lucky Lee and Moretti (all making their Stakes debuts, I wouldn't over look Tax who was last seen running third in the Grade 2 Ramsen behind Maximus Mischief and Network Effect, both Derby hopefuls. The bummer here is that Le General seems likely to miss the race due to injury.
Speaking of Maximus Mischief, he seems likely to run here against Mucho Macho Man winner Mihos, and the Todd Pletcher hopeful Federal Case. Again, the chalk is to say that one of these horses is the sure-fire winner but also on the card is the Dale Romans trained Come On Gerry who might be a better value from a wagering perspective. Also interesting, and getting zero buzz, is Mucho Macho Man second place finisher Trophy Chaser, who needs to show some improvement from last time out but who also seems to have the pedigree to do well here. People are still waiting for him to put it all together in a big race.
The West Coast prep race provides us with a nice showdown between Jerry Hollendorfer's Gunmetal Grey, who looked spectacular in the Sham stakes, facing off against the Bob Baffert trained Mucho Gusto, who also looked good in the Los Alamitos Futurity. Looking to spoil matters is Sueno, who finished 2nd in the Sham and Nolo Contesto, the John Sadler trained colt who struggled in his first race but put it all together in his last race to break his maiden and indicate that he's ready to move forward.
Saturday won't tell us WHO will be in the Derby obviously, the big preps are still to come, but it will provide us with some indication as to who won't be. The current 3YO crop is starting to run out of prep races, and chances to put it all together in advance of the $3MM Kentucky Derby. Earlier a bad race could be overcome, we're getting to the point where horses that don't show something might have to start looking a different way.
I'll do a full breakdown later but, for now, I'll just say that Saturday is going to be exciting.
Good luck however you play.
Monday, January 28, 2019
Horse Racing: Opening Weekend at Sam Houston (and the Pegasus)
Last weekend, for me, was very horse racing centric as the local track celebrated the opening of its 25th year of existence.
Sam Houston Race Park did a fine job with full cards and, unfortunately, formful racing that was capped off with a huge card on Sunday, including six stakes races.
The two marquee races were the John B. Connelly turf, won for the third year in a row by Bigger Picture and the Houston Ladies Classic, won by Mike Smith and Midnight Bisou who had to come from last to first on the home stretch to pull out the win.
Midnight Bisou is trained by Steve Asmussen, who had a huge weekend at SHRP where, on Saturday, it seemed as if every horse he entered was taking down the top prize. That wasn't the case of course, as there were two pretty big upsets on Saturday where his runners didn't fire. Still, he took most of the major awards in races where he had entries.
William Calhoun and Micheal Maker also had good weekends there.
For the horse player, the weekend was mixed. It was, for the most part, formful, so much so that the Late Pick 4 on Sunday only paid out $21 and change. The Mid-card Pick 4 did pay out around $350 however due, in large part, to back to back upsets in the 3rd (Uncle Whitt at 9-1) and the 4th (Too Tall Tony also at 9-1) The early Pick 5 was a good bet as well, if you hit it paying out around $650 to winners.
I, sadly, did not hit on either of those bets. Nor could I hit on either of my shots at the Space City Pick 6, a new "jackpot" pick 6 bet with 12% takeout that should be more popular than it is. On Friday the Pick 6 paid out $429.64 for 6 correct, on Saturday it paid $133.52 for 5 correct (with an $1100 carryover) and on Sunday it paid $390.14 for 6 correct with about a $3500 carryover.
The Space City Pick 6 is at a $.20 denomination with a payout of 25% with multiple winners and the "jackpot" payout if there is a single winner.
I was able to hit on a small-ish late pick 4 at Gulfstream on Friday ($83.60 on a $20 card) and I did hit the late pick 4 on Sunday ($21 win on a $32 card) but I also hit a $10 late daily double that paid out $41 on the two chalk favorites. Midnight Bisou (1-9) and Susie Bee (2-1) which brought me to down around $90 for the entirety of the weekend.
I did hit a small trifecta early on ($8.60 win on a $3 bet) but that was about it.
On Saturday I showed up at the track early, made my Bets for the Pegasus (and the Space City Pick 6) and then went home, did laundry, and watched it all unfold on TV. I thought City of Light was amazing in the Pegasus, and I, like many others, am sad to see him retire just as he's getting interesting. The next "big" race globally is the Meydan World Cup, which already has an impressive list of nominated horses. (I'm particularly interested in Battle of Midway here, if he runs)
On Sunday the wife and I rented carrels in the player's lounge (A steal at $3 per person) and spent the day there. The bar service was friendly, and we were able to spend a relaxing day betting horses and stargazing. Mike Smith was there, obviously, and he did a meet and greet that we considered, but the line was too long to wait in just to see him, have him sign something and get overcharged for a photo, and we also saw Dave Weaver from TVG. The wife and I are big fans and we thought about trying to get his autograph, but he was on the phone when we saw him and I'm not one for interrupting people so she settled for a picture.
One nit to pick:
Concessions. The main 'cafe' on the lower level is really struggling with customer service. The cashiers who take your order are surly, and the people whose job it is to deliver your food are clueless. This led to confusion, long wait times, and finally one enterprising young man taking over and just having people hand him their order tickets and start fulfilling the orders. I did not get his name, but he saved the day by eventually just giving up on the lady who was "expediting" the orders (in reality, she was just standing around shuffling the order tickets looking at the food.) and making sure people got what they needed.
I did not see a name tag on him, but he was a young Hispanic man who needs a raise. The lady working as the expediter needs to either be reassigned to another job, or let go entirely. For minutes on end she just stood there shuffling tickets, while a long line of customers stood by waiting for their food.
And, here's the thing, there was plenty of food being delivered by the chefs, it was just her inability to expedite it that was creating the problem.
To be honest the entire operation in that area needs to be re-evaluated, the staff either retrained or not retained, and operations completely overhauled. That said, when we finally got the food, it was good, so the cooks back there are at least doing their job.
The Player's lounge needs more staff on busy days, but otherwise that's about it. The weekend was enjoyable, entertaining, and we only had a slight loss.
I'll be handicapping Friday's card later this week for a return trip on Friday night. I'll probably get a carrel again in the player's lounge, because I've little desire to be at the public bar on fifty-cent beer night.
Until then....good luck however you play.
Sam Houston Race Park did a fine job with full cards and, unfortunately, formful racing that was capped off with a huge card on Sunday, including six stakes races.
The two marquee races were the John B. Connelly turf, won for the third year in a row by Bigger Picture and the Houston Ladies Classic, won by Mike Smith and Midnight Bisou who had to come from last to first on the home stretch to pull out the win.
Midnight Bisou is trained by Steve Asmussen, who had a huge weekend at SHRP where, on Saturday, it seemed as if every horse he entered was taking down the top prize. That wasn't the case of course, as there were two pretty big upsets on Saturday where his runners didn't fire. Still, he took most of the major awards in races where he had entries.
William Calhoun and Micheal Maker also had good weekends there.
For the horse player, the weekend was mixed. It was, for the most part, formful, so much so that the Late Pick 4 on Sunday only paid out $21 and change. The Mid-card Pick 4 did pay out around $350 however due, in large part, to back to back upsets in the 3rd (Uncle Whitt at 9-1) and the 4th (Too Tall Tony also at 9-1) The early Pick 5 was a good bet as well, if you hit it paying out around $650 to winners.
I, sadly, did not hit on either of those bets. Nor could I hit on either of my shots at the Space City Pick 6, a new "jackpot" pick 6 bet with 12% takeout that should be more popular than it is. On Friday the Pick 6 paid out $429.64 for 6 correct, on Saturday it paid $133.52 for 5 correct (with an $1100 carryover) and on Sunday it paid $390.14 for 6 correct with about a $3500 carryover.
The Space City Pick 6 is at a $.20 denomination with a payout of 25% with multiple winners and the "jackpot" payout if there is a single winner.
I was able to hit on a small-ish late pick 4 at Gulfstream on Friday ($83.60 on a $20 card) and I did hit the late pick 4 on Sunday ($21 win on a $32 card) but I also hit a $10 late daily double that paid out $41 on the two chalk favorites. Midnight Bisou (1-9) and Susie Bee (2-1) which brought me to down around $90 for the entirety of the weekend.
I did hit a small trifecta early on ($8.60 win on a $3 bet) but that was about it.
On Saturday I showed up at the track early, made my Bets for the Pegasus (and the Space City Pick 6) and then went home, did laundry, and watched it all unfold on TV. I thought City of Light was amazing in the Pegasus, and I, like many others, am sad to see him retire just as he's getting interesting. The next "big" race globally is the Meydan World Cup, which already has an impressive list of nominated horses. (I'm particularly interested in Battle of Midway here, if he runs)
On Sunday the wife and I rented carrels in the player's lounge (A steal at $3 per person) and spent the day there. The bar service was friendly, and we were able to spend a relaxing day betting horses and stargazing. Mike Smith was there, obviously, and he did a meet and greet that we considered, but the line was too long to wait in just to see him, have him sign something and get overcharged for a photo, and we also saw Dave Weaver from TVG. The wife and I are big fans and we thought about trying to get his autograph, but he was on the phone when we saw him and I'm not one for interrupting people so she settled for a picture.
One nit to pick:
Concessions. The main 'cafe' on the lower level is really struggling with customer service. The cashiers who take your order are surly, and the people whose job it is to deliver your food are clueless. This led to confusion, long wait times, and finally one enterprising young man taking over and just having people hand him their order tickets and start fulfilling the orders. I did not get his name, but he saved the day by eventually just giving up on the lady who was "expediting" the orders (in reality, she was just standing around shuffling the order tickets looking at the food.) and making sure people got what they needed.
I did not see a name tag on him, but he was a young Hispanic man who needs a raise. The lady working as the expediter needs to either be reassigned to another job, or let go entirely. For minutes on end she just stood there shuffling tickets, while a long line of customers stood by waiting for their food.
And, here's the thing, there was plenty of food being delivered by the chefs, it was just her inability to expedite it that was creating the problem.
To be honest the entire operation in that area needs to be re-evaluated, the staff either retrained or not retained, and operations completely overhauled. That said, when we finally got the food, it was good, so the cooks back there are at least doing their job.
The Player's lounge needs more staff on busy days, but otherwise that's about it. The weekend was enjoyable, entertaining, and we only had a slight loss.
I'll be handicapping Friday's card later this week for a return trip on Friday night. I'll probably get a carrel again in the player's lounge, because I've little desire to be at the public bar on fifty-cent beer night.
Until then....good luck however you play.
Wednesday, January 23, 2019
Sports Betting: We are Here to Protect You from......You.
The ink was not dry on the SCOTUS ruling invalidating PASPA when the doom-sayers started to come out of the woodwork. Cries of "we're doomed" were only secondary to "Something! must be done" cries from those who would seek to protect us from our greater demons.
The fact is that a lot of the customers for legalized sports betting are going to come from the already mature illegal offshore betting market. This crazy influx of "new" gamblers are probably already betting on games online to a major extent. It's not going to be the case that a person who has never made a bet will suddenly find themselves chained to a sports book. For the most part these are in casinos or betting facilities such as race tracks. It's just a hollow argument.
Continuing on....
What this argument ignores is the fact that organized crime historically benefited from ILLEGAL gambling, not a legal, regulated gaming market. Benny Binion got his start in Dallas running illegal numbers games, then illegal dice halls, then illegal casinos before moving to Las Vegas and opening Binions.
Yes, organized crime and gambling have a HUGE history, but it's almost exclusively on the illegal, unregulated side of the ledger. This is not to discount the early days of Vegas, through the early 80's when the mob ran the town, but regulation and passage laws that allowed for corporate ownership of casinos and stricter enforcement of laws coupled with IRS crackdowns on "the skim" all but put an end to the Las Vegas mafia except where there's still a presence in the unions.
The fact is that the Las Vegas where organized crime gained a foothold was largely an unregulated, or "self-regulated" market, and only the increased presence of the Nevada Gaming Commission and stronger enforcement, and bigger pocketed corporations, ran them out of town.
Then there's this....
Given that cities frequently put Billions of taxpayer dollars on the line for new stadiums, stadium expansions, infrastructure improvement and other team-related expenses, I would argue that this loss of "civic pride" might go some ways to moving the pendulum away from corporate welfare. Bloomberg is acting as if a city's frenzy for their sports team is a good thing, that taking Billions that could have been spent on education (or mental health services) to build a playpen for Billionaires is in the public good. What Bloomberg is really angry about is that their sacred ox is at risk of getting gored.
I don't say any of this to suggest that legalized gambling is without its risks. Of course there are potential downsides. But, those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it. The prohibition of liquor gave rise to the mafia, the prohibition of drugs gave rise to the cartels and the modern gang problem. The prohibition of gambling has created new networks of criminals operating in the shady black-market. What we've learned, and continue to learn, is that Sunshine is the best way to rid the room of rats.
Could there be scandals? Of course. But having effective regulations and regulators surrounding an industry make them far easier to root out than would otherwise be possible in an unregulated market. The analytics of the modern gambling industry allow for warning flags of suspected illicit activity to be spotted early, and more easily ran down should such a thing occur.
One thing NOT needed is a Federal gaming bill. We've already seen what happens when the Feds get involved with PASPA, and with the Department of Justice's flawed ruling on the Wire Act which was really just a give-away to Trump donor (and casino owner) Sheldon Adelson, whose casinos don't have a strong online presence, and are trailing the industry overall.
Sports betting is, and should be, a matter left to the States. Not that they're perfect in regulation but they've been proven moderately effective over the course of time. "We're the Federal Government and we're here to help" is a phrase of terror, not a lifeline for success.
The media needs to hire people who truly understand gambling, and the gambling industry, before trying to tell us what we should think about it. Either that or just get the heck out of the way.
Granted, no one knew what that Something! actually was, but they knew it had to be done and it had to be done quickly. What has followed are a host of anti-gambling editorials and articles from media, former players, government officials and watchdog groups who claimed to only be on the lookout for 'the common good'.
The most common warning is gambling addiction which, yes, sadly exists. The second argument is Scandal! and dire warnings that something "bad" is going to happen.
However, this following Bloomberg editorial is perhaps the best collection of false flags and bogeymen that I have seen in quite some time, and it deserves a rebuttal because many of its claims and 'facts' are just entirely wrong.
One concern is addiction. More than 2 percent of U.S. adults suffer from gambling disorder, which can impose devastating personal and social costs.You will get no argument from me that gambling addiction is a great social ill. So is alcohol addiction, drug addiction, porn addiction etc. There is certainly more that can be done for addictive personality disorder in America, in all mental health treatment to be honest, but suggesting that legalizing sports betting is going to lead to a sudden spike in gambling addiction is disingenuous at best, dishonest at worst.
The fact is that a lot of the customers for legalized sports betting are going to come from the already mature illegal offshore betting market. This crazy influx of "new" gamblers are probably already betting on games online to a major extent. It's not going to be the case that a person who has never made a bet will suddenly find themselves chained to a sports book. For the most part these are in casinos or betting facilities such as race tracks. It's just a hollow argument.
Continuing on....
Another potential threat is corruption. Gambling has long provided a convenient conduit for organized crime. Point-shaving scandals have marred college sports in the U.S. for decades, while match-fixing is routine in some overseas leagues.
What this argument ignores is the fact that organized crime historically benefited from ILLEGAL gambling, not a legal, regulated gaming market. Benny Binion got his start in Dallas running illegal numbers games, then illegal dice halls, then illegal casinos before moving to Las Vegas and opening Binions.
Yes, organized crime and gambling have a HUGE history, but it's almost exclusively on the illegal, unregulated side of the ledger. This is not to discount the early days of Vegas, through the early 80's when the mob ran the town, but regulation and passage laws that allowed for corporate ownership of casinos and stricter enforcement of laws coupled with IRS crackdowns on "the skim" all but put an end to the Las Vegas mafia except where there's still a presence in the unions.
The fact is that the Las Vegas where organized crime gained a foothold was largely an unregulated, or "self-regulated" market, and only the increased presence of the Nevada Gaming Commission and stronger enforcement, and bigger pocketed corporations, ran them out of town.
Then there's this....
A final, less tangible concern is that gambling could diminish the social value of sports. Athletes are already being subjected to intrusive tracking technology that reduces their every move to data, the better to predict – and profit from – their performance. If civic or sentimental attachments to teams give way to a preoccupation with cash and probabilities, something will have been lost.
Given that cities frequently put Billions of taxpayer dollars on the line for new stadiums, stadium expansions, infrastructure improvement and other team-related expenses, I would argue that this loss of "civic pride" might go some ways to moving the pendulum away from corporate welfare. Bloomberg is acting as if a city's frenzy for their sports team is a good thing, that taking Billions that could have been spent on education (or mental health services) to build a playpen for Billionaires is in the public good. What Bloomberg is really angry about is that their sacred ox is at risk of getting gored.
I don't say any of this to suggest that legalized gambling is without its risks. Of course there are potential downsides. But, those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it. The prohibition of liquor gave rise to the mafia, the prohibition of drugs gave rise to the cartels and the modern gang problem. The prohibition of gambling has created new networks of criminals operating in the shady black-market. What we've learned, and continue to learn, is that Sunshine is the best way to rid the room of rats.
Could there be scandals? Of course. But having effective regulations and regulators surrounding an industry make them far easier to root out than would otherwise be possible in an unregulated market. The analytics of the modern gambling industry allow for warning flags of suspected illicit activity to be spotted early, and more easily ran down should such a thing occur.
One thing NOT needed is a Federal gaming bill. We've already seen what happens when the Feds get involved with PASPA, and with the Department of Justice's flawed ruling on the Wire Act which was really just a give-away to Trump donor (and casino owner) Sheldon Adelson, whose casinos don't have a strong online presence, and are trailing the industry overall.
Sports betting is, and should be, a matter left to the States. Not that they're perfect in regulation but they've been proven moderately effective over the course of time. "We're the Federal Government and we're here to help" is a phrase of terror, not a lifeline for success.
The media needs to hire people who truly understand gambling, and the gambling industry, before trying to tell us what we should think about it. Either that or just get the heck out of the way.
Tuesday, January 15, 2019
Gambling Law: Sheldon's Political Donations Pay Off.
U.S. Now Says All Online Gambling Illegal, not Just Sports Bets. Bloomberg.
The decision by the US Department of Justice is a reversal of a 2011 interpretation that limited the poorly designed Wire Act to sports betting only. This makes any and all gambling online illegal and will be challenged in court, especially by States that offer online Lottery sales based on the 2011 guidance.
This is also something that Sands owner, and huge Republican donor, Sheldon Adelson has lobbied for years to achieve. He's often argued, wrongfully, that by forcing gamblers to go to a casino they are somehow "protected" from the lessor Angels of gaming, prostitution, graft, theft etc.
This despite the fact that has been proven wrong by first person accounts, exposes, etc. Sheldon also claims that online gambling is a lure for children, while his casinos are not. Something that has also been shown historically to be untrue.
What this ruling really does is attempt to eliminate a potential competitor for an industry who is seeing demand for it's product steadily erode over time. Sands is uniquely unqualified to take advantage of any online gaming boom, as opposed to CET and MGM, so he's staunchly against it. He's an old man shouting at clouds.
Of course, in many states gambling in all forms, minus the lottery and on-track animal races, is illegal yet the biggest online gaming occur within their borders. Texas, for example, has strict laws against gaming but has one of the largest illegal gambling markets in the US.
A better solution would be to repeal and rewrite the Wire Act, modernizing it and realizing that it's language is wholly incapable of regulating in a digital world. The Act itself is fatally flawed through it's failure to contemplate the current online marketplace.
Sadly, given what passes for leadership in politics this will not happen and gambling in America will continue to move in the black, offshore market, online causing either massive resources to be wasted running down individual gamblers or wasting Millions trying to hunt-down offshore book owners who reside in countries lacking extradition agreements.
Sheldon may be happier, but the actual affect of this will be akin to a raindrop hitting the ocean. Too much of the current online gambling market is occurring in unregulated areas.
At some point we're going to have to take a long look at how gaming is regulated in this Country, ridding the discussion of bad actors like Adelson and his compatriots would be a good start.
The decision by the US Department of Justice is a reversal of a 2011 interpretation that limited the poorly designed Wire Act to sports betting only. This makes any and all gambling online illegal and will be challenged in court, especially by States that offer online Lottery sales based on the 2011 guidance.
This is also something that Sands owner, and huge Republican donor, Sheldon Adelson has lobbied for years to achieve. He's often argued, wrongfully, that by forcing gamblers to go to a casino they are somehow "protected" from the lessor Angels of gaming, prostitution, graft, theft etc.
This despite the fact that has been proven wrong by first person accounts, exposes, etc. Sheldon also claims that online gambling is a lure for children, while his casinos are not. Something that has also been shown historically to be untrue.
What this ruling really does is attempt to eliminate a potential competitor for an industry who is seeing demand for it's product steadily erode over time. Sands is uniquely unqualified to take advantage of any online gaming boom, as opposed to CET and MGM, so he's staunchly against it. He's an old man shouting at clouds.
Of course, in many states gambling in all forms, minus the lottery and on-track animal races, is illegal yet the biggest online gaming occur within their borders. Texas, for example, has strict laws against gaming but has one of the largest illegal gambling markets in the US.
A better solution would be to repeal and rewrite the Wire Act, modernizing it and realizing that it's language is wholly incapable of regulating in a digital world. The Act itself is fatally flawed through it's failure to contemplate the current online marketplace.
Sadly, given what passes for leadership in politics this will not happen and gambling in America will continue to move in the black, offshore market, online causing either massive resources to be wasted running down individual gamblers or wasting Millions trying to hunt-down offshore book owners who reside in countries lacking extradition agreements.
Sheldon may be happier, but the actual affect of this will be akin to a raindrop hitting the ocean. Too much of the current online gambling market is occurring in unregulated areas.
At some point we're going to have to take a long look at how gaming is regulated in this Country, ridding the discussion of bad actors like Adelson and his compatriots would be a good start.
Thursday, January 10, 2019
Horse Racing: Takeout, not lack of betting options, is the real problem here.
And it's not going to get any better soon....
Racing Roulette, and why it will never work. Bill Finley, Thoroughbred Racing News
To fully understand the folly of this thinking take a look at the following Twitter thread by California Horseplayer advocate Andy Asaro
By my way of thinking this boils down to two issues:
1. Takeout in horse racing is non-competitive with other forms of gaming, and it's been on the INCREASE for the last several years as handle declines.
This, ironically, is the same strategy being deployed by the larger casino groups as their gaming declines. Make the hold higher, the odds worse, and milk the remaining gambler for all their worth at the expense of the owners.
In the end what this does is destroy the value proposition for gambling. Most intelligent people, or at least those with an understanding of math, understand the rather simple concepts of "house edge" and "track takeout". They also understand odds, probability and the fact that the only people who make money, long-term, in casino or horse-betting are the owners of the casinos and tracks. This math has been solid for a long time, it is rarely changed.
The problem occurs when someone in this value chain gets overly greedy, is not content to let the baked-in house advantage be enough. This is why you see takeout rising across the land. It is also why you see casino odds getting worse and worse with no end in sight.
Why do they do this? Because they CAN. The fact is that most people who are placing a wager of any type are doing so because they either saw it on TV, or in the movies, and think that they can go and "beat the odds" without fully understanding what the odds really are.
One fix for this: Would that the horse-racing "media" (i.e. NBC, Fox, etc.) do a better job explaining to the potential bettor the damage that can be done by breakage (simplified: rounding down on payouts) and takeout. Have you EVER heard Eddie Olcheck mention either? Nope, and you won't because there's precious little horse racing media that is not beholden to the tracks, the horse owners and the establishment trainers.
Which, conveniently, leads us to...
2. Track owners, horse owners, trainers etc. place little to no value on the horse player, and in some cases hold them in contempt.
Hall of Fame Trainer D. Wayne Lukas is famous for suggesting that horse racing would be better off without the horseplayer. There are many in the community who feel that to be true. They point to Meydan, heavily subsidized by the Royalty, as evidence of this. What they ignore is that there IS horse betting going on in the UAE, it's just handled off the books by bookies instead of track windows. It's understood, and allowed, provided it's done under the radar.
In America without betting the horse racing industry would be a thing of the past. Yes, they could rely on slot revenue (or, slot warfare as Twitter user and Horseplayer Inside the Pylons terms it.) in perpetuity, thus limiting and destroying any track in a State not willing to make the expansion, or they could look at real reform, or running in front of small crowds, with seven figure purses going the way of 3:2 blackjack.
Horse racing needs the horseplayer like casinos (still) need the dedicated gambler whether they like it or not. The two have a symbiotic relationship that can either be healthy, or unhealthy depending on management behavior.
Ironically, the decrease in track handle is widely believed to be a major issue for tracks everywhere despite horse players not being "central to the success of the industry".
Think about that for a minute and then ask yourself why management holds the attitudes that they do/
The only answer you can come up with is that they're not that bright, not that creative and not that serious about solving the systemic problems that exist.
All three are true.
Racing Roulette, and why it will never work. Bill Finley, Thoroughbred Racing News
A roulette-based horse racing wager can never succeed with a 15.43% takeout. Yes, it was created to appeal to people who might be at the track for the first time and are confused by the pari-mutuel process. Anyone can understand roulette. A few small players and newbies might play it for fun, and, perhaps, it’s worth keeping around for that reason alone.But no serious handicapper is going to go near a bet where the value is so poor. If $3,000 is bet on racing roulette, $2,537 is returned to the winners. Over the long-term, with a real roulette game that handles $3,000, $2,845 is paid back. That’s quite a difference.The shame of this is that racing roulette, if it could be done properly, is actually an excellent idea.
To fully understand the folly of this thinking take a look at the following Twitter thread by California Horseplayer advocate Andy Asaro
You CANNOT currently lower the takeout on any wager to 5.26%. It won’t/can’t happen. 12% is about as low as anyone can currently go. Maybe 10%. And again it comes down to the TOC fully participating in any reduction because of SB1072
By my way of thinking this boils down to two issues:
1. Takeout in horse racing is non-competitive with other forms of gaming, and it's been on the INCREASE for the last several years as handle declines.
This, ironically, is the same strategy being deployed by the larger casino groups as their gaming declines. Make the hold higher, the odds worse, and milk the remaining gambler for all their worth at the expense of the owners.
In the end what this does is destroy the value proposition for gambling. Most intelligent people, or at least those with an understanding of math, understand the rather simple concepts of "house edge" and "track takeout". They also understand odds, probability and the fact that the only people who make money, long-term, in casino or horse-betting are the owners of the casinos and tracks. This math has been solid for a long time, it is rarely changed.
The problem occurs when someone in this value chain gets overly greedy, is not content to let the baked-in house advantage be enough. This is why you see takeout rising across the land. It is also why you see casino odds getting worse and worse with no end in sight.
Why do they do this? Because they CAN. The fact is that most people who are placing a wager of any type are doing so because they either saw it on TV, or in the movies, and think that they can go and "beat the odds" without fully understanding what the odds really are.
One fix for this: Would that the horse-racing "media" (i.e. NBC, Fox, etc.) do a better job explaining to the potential bettor the damage that can be done by breakage (simplified: rounding down on payouts) and takeout. Have you EVER heard Eddie Olcheck mention either? Nope, and you won't because there's precious little horse racing media that is not beholden to the tracks, the horse owners and the establishment trainers.
Which, conveniently, leads us to...
2. Track owners, horse owners, trainers etc. place little to no value on the horse player, and in some cases hold them in contempt.
Hall of Fame Trainer D. Wayne Lukas is famous for suggesting that horse racing would be better off without the horseplayer. There are many in the community who feel that to be true. They point to Meydan, heavily subsidized by the Royalty, as evidence of this. What they ignore is that there IS horse betting going on in the UAE, it's just handled off the books by bookies instead of track windows. It's understood, and allowed, provided it's done under the radar.
In America without betting the horse racing industry would be a thing of the past. Yes, they could rely on slot revenue (or, slot warfare as Twitter user and Horseplayer Inside the Pylons terms it.) in perpetuity, thus limiting and destroying any track in a State not willing to make the expansion, or they could look at real reform, or running in front of small crowds, with seven figure purses going the way of 3:2 blackjack.
Horse racing needs the horseplayer like casinos (still) need the dedicated gambler whether they like it or not. The two have a symbiotic relationship that can either be healthy, or unhealthy depending on management behavior.
Ironically, the decrease in track handle is widely believed to be a major issue for tracks everywhere despite horse players not being "central to the success of the industry".
Think about that for a minute and then ask yourself why management holds the attitudes that they do/
The only answer you can come up with is that they're not that bright, not that creative and not that serious about solving the systemic problems that exist.
All three are true.
Monday, January 7, 2019
A Year in Gambling: Looking back at 2018
Every year I like to come back here and reflect on what happened over the previous year. 2018 was a fairly large year for me as I went on 10 trips to a casino (either Vegas or my local) and while the year was up and down, I did have several positive things to show for it.
1. Video Poker is my jam. - It doesn't seem to matter what casino or in what city. If it's available, I'm playing video poker. And 2018 was a good year for that as I've now added three Royal Flushes to my ledger, including two more in Lake Charles including my first at Golden Nugget Lake Charles and my second at L'Auberge, which was also a hand pay on a progressive of around $1,700.
I also hit my first Royal in Vegas at the Long Bar at the D, where their progressive maxes out at $1,199. No tax form but those did spare me from what would have otherwise been a pretty tough year. As it stands, I'm down slightly, but not horribly. I was severely dinged by slots this year, as I seem to have no luck on them. While I was playing them more frequently to begin the year I've severely curtailed my play at the end of the year where I'm now up to almost 90% video poker. While that doesn't guarantee profitability, it does seem to limit the losses.
2. My luck on slots sucks. - As stated earlier, I'm on a brutal run on slots. My only significant win being a "major" jackpot on Dancing Drums at the Cosmopolitan. It's all timing, and mine sucks. Even Buffalo Gold, which provided me a brief run of hope, has gone South in a hurry. Any and all Buffalo games are just a money suck now, which has me avoiding them. Which is too bad because I really enjoy them when it's paying out. My low point on Buffalo was a $1.40 total bonus win on a $2.40 bet. Ouch.
3. Table games haven't been much better. - I want to play more 3-card, blackjack and Pai Gow Poker, I really do. But my luck on them of late has just been brutal. It's been a minute since I've gotten a decent 3-card hand, and the dealer keeps beating my by one in blackjack. I'm thinking about playing more craps in 2019, I do need some break from video poker monotony.
4. PGP is noticeable now. - I am really noticing it on my Vegas trips. The Strip is rapidly turning into a gambling wasteland as slots are getting tighter, video poker odds are getting worse, three zero roulette is becoming more prevalent and 6:5 blackjack continues to be the scourge of the land. The worst bit? The scum is starting to creep downtown. Even El Cortez has installed red light/green light drink monitoring. It's a sad day in Clark County, NV when even Fremont is racing toward the bottom.
5. Despite the mess, offers are becoming more plentiful. - I'm even getting free room offers from Cosmo of all places. I've no doubt that I'm viewed as a low-margin player, but I'm starting to see the benefits of increased soak time on the machines, and not always losing. With all of our trips I'm now booking Vegas using points on flights, and free rooms. With those factors flying out to Clark County is making the local seem less and less attractive.
6. The Sports gambling revolution is passing me by. - Currently, I live in Texas, one of the more backwater states when it comes to gambling. Now, I don't think that Texas has any business in the casino industry, I think they'd make a hash of it, but online horse and sports betting, legalized and taxes, should at least be on the table. Being able to bet multiple tracks through TVG or TwinSpires would help as well. Yes, there are still the offshore books, if one is so disposed. But legalized gaming is much preferred to the unregulated type. As it stands Texans are going to have to hope that Louisiana and Oklahoma get it right. Relying on those two states is somewhat scary.
7. I had a bad College football season, and (surprisingly) a good NFL one. - If you've followed on here for any length of time you know that this is a reversal of form for me. All year I could never seem to get any traction on college ball, but had good results in the NFL. Even last weekend when I called all underdogs worked out well (4-0). If only I had made the bet.
And that's the story for 2018 methinks. "If only I had made the bet".
Ciao 2018.
1. Video Poker is my jam. - It doesn't seem to matter what casino or in what city. If it's available, I'm playing video poker. And 2018 was a good year for that as I've now added three Royal Flushes to my ledger, including two more in Lake Charles including my first at Golden Nugget Lake Charles and my second at L'Auberge, which was also a hand pay on a progressive of around $1,700.
I also hit my first Royal in Vegas at the Long Bar at the D, where their progressive maxes out at $1,199. No tax form but those did spare me from what would have otherwise been a pretty tough year. As it stands, I'm down slightly, but not horribly. I was severely dinged by slots this year, as I seem to have no luck on them. While I was playing them more frequently to begin the year I've severely curtailed my play at the end of the year where I'm now up to almost 90% video poker. While that doesn't guarantee profitability, it does seem to limit the losses.
2. My luck on slots sucks. - As stated earlier, I'm on a brutal run on slots. My only significant win being a "major" jackpot on Dancing Drums at the Cosmopolitan. It's all timing, and mine sucks. Even Buffalo Gold, which provided me a brief run of hope, has gone South in a hurry. Any and all Buffalo games are just a money suck now, which has me avoiding them. Which is too bad because I really enjoy them when it's paying out. My low point on Buffalo was a $1.40 total bonus win on a $2.40 bet. Ouch.
3. Table games haven't been much better. - I want to play more 3-card, blackjack and Pai Gow Poker, I really do. But my luck on them of late has just been brutal. It's been a minute since I've gotten a decent 3-card hand, and the dealer keeps beating my by one in blackjack. I'm thinking about playing more craps in 2019, I do need some break from video poker monotony.
4. PGP is noticeable now. - I am really noticing it on my Vegas trips. The Strip is rapidly turning into a gambling wasteland as slots are getting tighter, video poker odds are getting worse, three zero roulette is becoming more prevalent and 6:5 blackjack continues to be the scourge of the land. The worst bit? The scum is starting to creep downtown. Even El Cortez has installed red light/green light drink monitoring. It's a sad day in Clark County, NV when even Fremont is racing toward the bottom.
5. Despite the mess, offers are becoming more plentiful. - I'm even getting free room offers from Cosmo of all places. I've no doubt that I'm viewed as a low-margin player, but I'm starting to see the benefits of increased soak time on the machines, and not always losing. With all of our trips I'm now booking Vegas using points on flights, and free rooms. With those factors flying out to Clark County is making the local seem less and less attractive.
6. The Sports gambling revolution is passing me by. - Currently, I live in Texas, one of the more backwater states when it comes to gambling. Now, I don't think that Texas has any business in the casino industry, I think they'd make a hash of it, but online horse and sports betting, legalized and taxes, should at least be on the table. Being able to bet multiple tracks through TVG or TwinSpires would help as well. Yes, there are still the offshore books, if one is so disposed. But legalized gaming is much preferred to the unregulated type. As it stands Texans are going to have to hope that Louisiana and Oklahoma get it right. Relying on those two states is somewhat scary.
7. I had a bad College football season, and (surprisingly) a good NFL one. - If you've followed on here for any length of time you know that this is a reversal of form for me. All year I could never seem to get any traction on college ball, but had good results in the NFL. Even last weekend when I called all underdogs worked out well (4-0). If only I had made the bet.
And that's the story for 2018 methinks. "If only I had made the bet".
Ciao 2018.
NFL Playoffs: The Underdogs have their day(s).
Three out of the four road underdogs won last weekend in the NFL Playoffs, and even Seattle, who didn't win, covered the 2.5 point spread (losing 22-24 to Dallas). I had stated elsewhere prior to the games that I thought an all-underdog parlay would be a good play. It would have hit, ironically, I wish I had posted that bet here, and actually made it.
But I spent the weekend at the beach with the wife, taking a break from what has been an up and down gambling season. OF COURSE a huge parlay that I might have made would have hit.
Colts vs. Texans: Colts Win 21-7
The score of the game makes it seem closer than it actually was. To say the Colts dominated the fraudulent Texans is an understatement. This had more the feel of a 42-3 thrashing than it did a game won by two scores.
With the Colts we learned that Andrew Luck is totally healthy, T.Y. Hilton is an elite player, and they have a good offensive line and a smart, talented defense. This team gets the Chiefs next, so they will have their work cut out for them.
In the Texans we learned just how hollow 11-5 can be. This is a team that should have finished around 8-8 save for two games where they were gifted wins and a schedule that broke perfectly for them. This Texans team lost to every good team they played this season. Further, there's every reason to suspect that Bill O'Brien is in out of his depth as a head coach. DeShawn Watson has regressed, the offensive line is slightly better than last year but that's faint praise, and the defense, which was supposed to be this team's rock, looked very porous and it's clear that big changes are needed.
Seahawks vs. Cowboys: Cowboys win 24-22
The image that I'll take away from this game was Allen Hurns lying on the field with his foot on back to front. That was an awful injury and I wish him the best in his recovery. This was a win that probably secured Jason Garrett's job as a head coach as well. Jerruh seemed very happy after the win.
If Ezekiel Elliot is right then the Cowboys should always be in the game. He's a star RB in a league where having a star RB is given diminishing weight. But the Cowboys feed off of his performance offensively and that always makes for interesting game play. Next week the Cowboys get the Rams, which could become a battle of two very healthy, and very good running backs.
As a 49ers fan I hate saying this, but Pete Carroll should be up for coach of the year based on what he did with a totally revamped roster of mostly young players. Gone is the Legion of Boom, completely and totally, but their new defensive backfield plays smarter, is athletic, and features young, rangy players with a ton of talent. Offensively they still go through Russell Wilson, and he's in need of a better running game and more targets to hit, but they're still OK.
Chargers vs. Ravens: Chargers win 23-17
There's a lot to unpack in this game. From Tony Romo talking on-air about a pissed Philip Rivers to fans booing the Ravens anemic offense. It wouldn't surprise me all that much to see the Chargers make a run.
Melvin Gordon might not be totally healthy, but he was good enough. For once the Chargers did not fold down the stretch and give up a late lead. Philip Rivers' greatness at the QB position is not totally appreciated by NFL fans. They get the Patriots next, which is such an interesting matchup that I might even dedicate a blog post to it.
The Ravens on offense were offensive, but it's not entirely Lamar Jackson's fault. Their game-plan seemed off from the jump. Nor was bringing Flacco in the right answer. The Ravens need to move on from Captain Mediocrity and despite the fact that the lost the game, Jackson is their path forward. They also need to find a better O-line, that would help.
Eagles vs. Bears: Eagles win 16-15
The defining moment in this game was the partially blocked, double-doink FG attempt as time was running down that clinched the win for the Eagles. The reasons for the loss go much deeper than that FG try.
The Eagles keep rolling, proving once again that Nick Foles is the QB of record for the Eagles, not Carson Wentz. And watching Darren Sproles play ball is a good thing no matter who you are rooting for. Next up are the Saints, and I'd be more than a little worried were I Drew Brees and Co. because the defending champs don't yet seem ready to relinquish their crown.
Bears fans are mad at Cody Parkey, some irrationally so, but its hard to analyze and easy (especially for Barstool employees) to rant and rage uncontrollably. Why did the game-plan call for so much passing from a game-managing QB? Where was the Bears' run game all night? What happened to the Bears D in big moments? That said, the talent on this Bears roster is stupid good. I thought all year that they were a year ahead of schedule, next year could be "the one" for them, which is why their loss feels different than the others.
Next weekend is that dumb weekend that everyone (wrongly) calls "the best weekend in football". It's not, but you're going to get four games that might be competitive at least.
We'll take a deeper dive into them all later in the week. Probably won't have the same set-up for an all-underdog parlay unfortunately, but I'm sure there will value somewhere.
But I spent the weekend at the beach with the wife, taking a break from what has been an up and down gambling season. OF COURSE a huge parlay that I might have made would have hit.
Colts vs. Texans: Colts Win 21-7
The score of the game makes it seem closer than it actually was. To say the Colts dominated the fraudulent Texans is an understatement. This had more the feel of a 42-3 thrashing than it did a game won by two scores.
With the Colts we learned that Andrew Luck is totally healthy, T.Y. Hilton is an elite player, and they have a good offensive line and a smart, talented defense. This team gets the Chiefs next, so they will have their work cut out for them.
In the Texans we learned just how hollow 11-5 can be. This is a team that should have finished around 8-8 save for two games where they were gifted wins and a schedule that broke perfectly for them. This Texans team lost to every good team they played this season. Further, there's every reason to suspect that Bill O'Brien is in out of his depth as a head coach. DeShawn Watson has regressed, the offensive line is slightly better than last year but that's faint praise, and the defense, which was supposed to be this team's rock, looked very porous and it's clear that big changes are needed.
Seahawks vs. Cowboys: Cowboys win 24-22
The image that I'll take away from this game was Allen Hurns lying on the field with his foot on back to front. That was an awful injury and I wish him the best in his recovery. This was a win that probably secured Jason Garrett's job as a head coach as well. Jerruh seemed very happy after the win.
If Ezekiel Elliot is right then the Cowboys should always be in the game. He's a star RB in a league where having a star RB is given diminishing weight. But the Cowboys feed off of his performance offensively and that always makes for interesting game play. Next week the Cowboys get the Rams, which could become a battle of two very healthy, and very good running backs.
As a 49ers fan I hate saying this, but Pete Carroll should be up for coach of the year based on what he did with a totally revamped roster of mostly young players. Gone is the Legion of Boom, completely and totally, but their new defensive backfield plays smarter, is athletic, and features young, rangy players with a ton of talent. Offensively they still go through Russell Wilson, and he's in need of a better running game and more targets to hit, but they're still OK.
Chargers vs. Ravens: Chargers win 23-17
There's a lot to unpack in this game. From Tony Romo talking on-air about a pissed Philip Rivers to fans booing the Ravens anemic offense. It wouldn't surprise me all that much to see the Chargers make a run.
Melvin Gordon might not be totally healthy, but he was good enough. For once the Chargers did not fold down the stretch and give up a late lead. Philip Rivers' greatness at the QB position is not totally appreciated by NFL fans. They get the Patriots next, which is such an interesting matchup that I might even dedicate a blog post to it.
The Ravens on offense were offensive, but it's not entirely Lamar Jackson's fault. Their game-plan seemed off from the jump. Nor was bringing Flacco in the right answer. The Ravens need to move on from Captain Mediocrity and despite the fact that the lost the game, Jackson is their path forward. They also need to find a better O-line, that would help.
Eagles vs. Bears: Eagles win 16-15
The defining moment in this game was the partially blocked, double-doink FG attempt as time was running down that clinched the win for the Eagles. The reasons for the loss go much deeper than that FG try.
The Eagles keep rolling, proving once again that Nick Foles is the QB of record for the Eagles, not Carson Wentz. And watching Darren Sproles play ball is a good thing no matter who you are rooting for. Next up are the Saints, and I'd be more than a little worried were I Drew Brees and Co. because the defending champs don't yet seem ready to relinquish their crown.
Bears fans are mad at Cody Parkey, some irrationally so, but its hard to analyze and easy (especially for Barstool employees) to rant and rage uncontrollably. Why did the game-plan call for so much passing from a game-managing QB? Where was the Bears' run game all night? What happened to the Bears D in big moments? That said, the talent on this Bears roster is stupid good. I thought all year that they were a year ahead of schedule, next year could be "the one" for them, which is why their loss feels different than the others.
Next weekend is that dumb weekend that everyone (wrongly) calls "the best weekend in football". It's not, but you're going to get four games that might be competitive at least.
We'll take a deeper dive into them all later in the week. Probably won't have the same set-up for an all-underdog parlay unfortunately, but I'm sure there will value somewhere.
Friday, January 4, 2019
Horse Racing: Sham! (Grade 3 - 01-05-2018 Santa Anita Park
Saturday at Santa Anita we're apt to see one of the more important early Derby Preps as the newly minted 3YO class (all horses are given a birth date of 01/01 for racing purposes regardless of when they were actually born) stretches out to two turns, many for the first time.
2019 Grade III Sham 1 Mile, Dirt. 3YO M
1. Sueno (20-1) Jockey: Kent Desormeaux Trainer: Keith Desormeaux
2. Gray Magician (4-1) Jockey: Flavian Prat
3. Savagery (10-1) Jockey: Joel Rosario
4. Easy Shot (30-1) Jockey: Rafael Bejarano
5. Coliseum (1-1) Jockey: Joe Talamo
6. Gunmetal Gray (5/2) Jockey: Mike Smith
7. Much Better (6-1) Jockey: Dreydan Van Dyke
There's a lot to unpack in this race. Is Coliseum the monster that some think he is or is Gunmetal Gray just a better horse? Can someone outside pull the upset? Also, this is the 5th leg of a very difficult Rainbow 6 sequence and the third leg in a difficult Pick 4. Are their plays there you want to consider? Is this your single? (No, it's not)
First off, I see this race as more wide open than many of the other prognosticators looking at it. To my mind, Coliseum, Gunmetal Gray, Gray Magician, Savagery and Much Better all have a shot to win here, and the people who are taking stands against Coliseum are using some dodgy logic to do so.
That said, Coliseum does not stand head and shoulders above this field and Gunmetal Gray is the most likely candidate to get the win, having ran faster, more often and against better competition in the past. Those are your top two then. Coliseum and Gunmetal Gray, both should be included in your vertical exotics and in your horizontals if you're playing either the Pick 4 or Rainbow 6. I cannot find any argument to leave either out.
The second tier of contenders in this race all have flaws, but also have the ability to win, if the conditions are correct. Gray Magician is making his stakes debut, coming off a win, a third running behind Derby Contender Improbable and a couple 2nd and 3rd in MSW at Del Mar. He'd need to improve to win here, and certainly could, but for me he's a play in the bottom of my vertical exotics. I will probably omit him from my horizontals and take the chance he's not the horse to beat me. I've of the same mind about Savagery, who seems to be a good horse but to me his best races will be as a sprinter running 7F or less. Joel Rosario will give him a good ride, and he should factor in the pace, but I can't see him lasting against this field. He'll be at the very bottom of my exotics.
The "other" Baffert horse in this race peaks my interest quite a bit. Much Better ran like he was shot out of a cannon in his first race, and then was inexplicably moved to the turf for races 2 & 3 where he did not run as well. Maybe the connections were bored? I also like Red Hot jockey Dreydan Van Dyke at Santa Anita. He is going to be my long shot horse for win purposes, will feature prominently in all of my exotics and will be in my horizontal bets.
The third tier of this race are toss out horses. Sueno is a good horse, but lacks the quality of the runners above him, and Easy Shot might have a future as a stakes runner later in his career, but he's ran twice, finishing 4th at 5 1/2 furlongs. Maybe I throw Sueno into the bottom of a Superfecta just in case something silly happens, but I think 3rd or 4th would be the cap for him.
Bets:
$10 Win 7 - Much Better
$0.10 Super 7,5,6/7,5,6/7,5,6,1/7,5,6,1
I'll also play the Rainbow 6 and the late Pick 4 but I have not finished my handicapping on those as of yet. As I said, they're tough.
2019 Grade III Sham 1 Mile, Dirt. 3YO M
1. Sueno (20-1) Jockey: Kent Desormeaux Trainer: Keith Desormeaux
2. Gray Magician (4-1) Jockey: Flavian Prat
3. Savagery (10-1) Jockey: Joel Rosario
4. Easy Shot (30-1) Jockey: Rafael Bejarano
5. Coliseum (1-1) Jockey: Joe Talamo
6. Gunmetal Gray (5/2) Jockey: Mike Smith
7. Much Better (6-1) Jockey: Dreydan Van Dyke
There's a lot to unpack in this race. Is Coliseum the monster that some think he is or is Gunmetal Gray just a better horse? Can someone outside pull the upset? Also, this is the 5th leg of a very difficult Rainbow 6 sequence and the third leg in a difficult Pick 4. Are their plays there you want to consider? Is this your single? (No, it's not)
First off, I see this race as more wide open than many of the other prognosticators looking at it. To my mind, Coliseum, Gunmetal Gray, Gray Magician, Savagery and Much Better all have a shot to win here, and the people who are taking stands against Coliseum are using some dodgy logic to do so.
That said, Coliseum does not stand head and shoulders above this field and Gunmetal Gray is the most likely candidate to get the win, having ran faster, more often and against better competition in the past. Those are your top two then. Coliseum and Gunmetal Gray, both should be included in your vertical exotics and in your horizontals if you're playing either the Pick 4 or Rainbow 6. I cannot find any argument to leave either out.
The second tier of contenders in this race all have flaws, but also have the ability to win, if the conditions are correct. Gray Magician is making his stakes debut, coming off a win, a third running behind Derby Contender Improbable and a couple 2nd and 3rd in MSW at Del Mar. He'd need to improve to win here, and certainly could, but for me he's a play in the bottom of my vertical exotics. I will probably omit him from my horizontals and take the chance he's not the horse to beat me. I've of the same mind about Savagery, who seems to be a good horse but to me his best races will be as a sprinter running 7F or less. Joel Rosario will give him a good ride, and he should factor in the pace, but I can't see him lasting against this field. He'll be at the very bottom of my exotics.
The "other" Baffert horse in this race peaks my interest quite a bit. Much Better ran like he was shot out of a cannon in his first race, and then was inexplicably moved to the turf for races 2 & 3 where he did not run as well. Maybe the connections were bored? I also like Red Hot jockey Dreydan Van Dyke at Santa Anita. He is going to be my long shot horse for win purposes, will feature prominently in all of my exotics and will be in my horizontal bets.
The third tier of this race are toss out horses. Sueno is a good horse, but lacks the quality of the runners above him, and Easy Shot might have a future as a stakes runner later in his career, but he's ran twice, finishing 4th at 5 1/2 furlongs. Maybe I throw Sueno into the bottom of a Superfecta just in case something silly happens, but I think 3rd or 4th would be the cap for him.
Bets:
$10 Win 7 - Much Better
$0.10 Super 7,5,6/7,5,6/7,5,6,1/7,5,6,1
I'll also play the Rainbow 6 and the late Pick 4 but I have not finished my handicapping on those as of yet. As I said, they're tough.
Horse Racing: It's January, So Let's Start the Triple Crown (Over) Hype!
In horse racing there are two seasons, Triple Crown season and everything else. Sure, for people who follow the sport there is much more than that, the Summer races, Fall and Saratoga, the Classics (where we find out if the current 3YO crop is any good when they face older horses for the first time) there's also The Breeder's Cup, which is the "true" championship of horse racing, the Pegasus Invitational, Meydan, Royal Ascot and a host of other International races that get short shrift, but for the general public it's the Triple Crown and everything else.
Part of this is the fault of the horse racing industry itself, over-romanticizing a horse winning three races against restricted competition and then acting as if they're the best thing ever, part of the problem lies with the media who cover the event, acting the same and not fully explaining why the Whitney and the Travers, later in the year, are really better determinants of a horses quality than the Triple Crown.
Even the three races themselves aren't the biggest paying races on the calendar. (I'd rather run a horse in the Travers for example, over the Belmont) In some cases (The Preakness for example) the race is run only as a last gasp to keep racing viable at a track that should have been torn down long ago.
But the Triple Crown IS important. It sets the tone for the year and it gives us a first glance at horses that may, or may not, go on to win some of the bigger world wide races later down the line. It also provides us with a gonzo betting race that's almost impossible to handicap, but which enjoys huge pools every year.
This year is no different, as already we're seeing a promising group of young horses begin to distance themselves from the field. Surprisingly, not ALL of them are trained by Bob Baffert.
1.Game Winner - Not only has he won all four of his races but he's won in impressive fashion, and he already has a win over a horse who looks to be competition for him, beating Gunmetal Gray in the Grade 1 American Pharoah. He's the son of Candy Ride, with AP Indy in the bloodline on the other side. I thought his win in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile was a great race, although other's were less impressed.
2. Improbable - Another Baffert runner, this one also boasting the exact same connections as Justify, will make this horse decidedly unpopular with the public. That's too bad because he's a beautiful son of City Zip who also has AP Indy on the other side of the breeding line. His win at the Grade 1 Los Alamitos Futurity was a run away, but the competition in that race is questionable. His biggest problem is going to be the specter of Justify, and how his reputation was ruined within the horse community by the circumstances in the Belmont (and butt-hurt bettors) as well as the WinStar/China Horse Club perceived shenanigans afterward.
3.Coliseum - The "third" Baffert entry that I think has a real chance. Yes, he's only raced once (and won, impressively, but we're going to find out a lot more about this colt Saturday in the Grade 3 Sham where he faces Gunmetal Gray, another horse we'll talk about on here and my longshot in the race, the Baffert Trained Much Better (How I'll also mention next)
4. Much Better - Another Baffert horse, but few are giving this one a chance, which I think is a mistake. Much Better ran his first race on dirt, and won handily, then was inexplicably moved to turf where he didn't like the surface as well. He moves back to the dirt for the Sham, where I think he'll do "much better".
5. Maximus Mischief - This Butch Reid trained colt has ran thrice, and won all three. His best run was in the Grade 2 Remsan at Aquaduct, where he ran away from the talented Netrwork Effect and outduled a horse that I really like in mile races in Tax. We'll likely see him next the first weekend in February running in the Grade 2 Holy Bull, always a key prep race.
6. Signalman - This horse has trainer Kenny McPeek written all over him. First, he was relatively cheap (a $32,000 purchase price) and 2nd, he's a grinder whose raced 5 times and has never not hit the board. His biggest disappointment was a 2nd place finish Breeder's Futurity, where Kincks Go shocked everyone winning at 40-1 over Signalman's valiant 2nd place run. He'll need some luck, don't they all, but I wouldn't be surprised if he gets in the field and messes up several bettor's exotics on Kentucky Derby Day.
7.Code of Honor - This horse was considered to be the most likely one to upset the Baffert apple cart before getting boat raced in the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes by Complexity. Was that just an aberration? We'll find out Saturday in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes, where he's up against a field any legitimate Derby contender should handle. I think he has the quality, but does he have the temperment, especially when things don't go as planned?
8. Vekoma - The scariest thing about this George Weaver trained colt is that he beat the aforementioned Network Effect handily in the Grade 3 Nashua, and did it while running as green as you can get. He was distracted down the stretch, trying to pull the jockey toward the grandstand and he STILL won by air. He's only ran twice and we haven't seen him around two-turns yet, but he's a talented horse who might make some noise if he can mature a little.
9. Instagrand - If there's a "buzz" horse among the contender's it's this colt, trained by Jerry Hollendorfer. He's won both of his two races going away, a 5 furlong MSW at Los Alamitos, and a domination of a pedestrian field in the Grade 2 Best Pal (6f). He was then shut down for the season by his connections and is expected to race sometime in the lead up to the KY Derby, we just don't know when. The thing about Instagram is that he's fast. He has great tactical speed and has shown a dominating closing kick at the shorter distances. Can he carry these traits to distance? Can he rate? Time will tell.
10. Knicks Go - The shocking winner of the Breeder's Futurity back in October at Keeneland followed that performance up with a solid 2nd place finish at the Breeder's Cup Juvenile. He then proceeded to lay an egg in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, also at Keeneland right after Thanksgiving. Was he just too tired? Do you draw a line through this race? We'll possibly find out at the Grade 3 Sam H. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs on February 9th.
11. Complexity - I'm including this Chad Brown runner in my analysis because of his solid win in the Grade 1 Champagne. Yes, he spit the bit in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile (finishing 10th) and it is concerning that this race was ran on the same track as the Derby with a similar crowd. But Brown is a solid trainer, albeit better on turf, who knows how to prep horses for big races. Can he bounce back? Do you draw a line through that race? Time will tell.
One thing we do know is that many of the horse prognosticators are considering sure things won't even make the Derby field the first Saturday in May. This time last year Justify hadn't even race yet. There will be upsets, horses who just flame out and horses listed above that just aren't as good at distance and two turns as we think they are.
What we are NOT going to do this year is start making any assumptions about the quality of this 3YO crop until they face older horses later in the year.
More importantly, horse racing is about to gear up in a big way for 2019. Starting off with early Derby Preps and then the always entertaining Pegasus. I'll be taking a look at those horses on here soon.
Bet wisely this weekend and enjoy the year.
Part of this is the fault of the horse racing industry itself, over-romanticizing a horse winning three races against restricted competition and then acting as if they're the best thing ever, part of the problem lies with the media who cover the event, acting the same and not fully explaining why the Whitney and the Travers, later in the year, are really better determinants of a horses quality than the Triple Crown.
Even the three races themselves aren't the biggest paying races on the calendar. (I'd rather run a horse in the Travers for example, over the Belmont) In some cases (The Preakness for example) the race is run only as a last gasp to keep racing viable at a track that should have been torn down long ago.
But the Triple Crown IS important. It sets the tone for the year and it gives us a first glance at horses that may, or may not, go on to win some of the bigger world wide races later down the line. It also provides us with a gonzo betting race that's almost impossible to handicap, but which enjoys huge pools every year.
This year is no different, as already we're seeing a promising group of young horses begin to distance themselves from the field. Surprisingly, not ALL of them are trained by Bob Baffert.
1.Game Winner - Not only has he won all four of his races but he's won in impressive fashion, and he already has a win over a horse who looks to be competition for him, beating Gunmetal Gray in the Grade 1 American Pharoah. He's the son of Candy Ride, with AP Indy in the bloodline on the other side. I thought his win in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile was a great race, although other's were less impressed.
2. Improbable - Another Baffert runner, this one also boasting the exact same connections as Justify, will make this horse decidedly unpopular with the public. That's too bad because he's a beautiful son of City Zip who also has AP Indy on the other side of the breeding line. His win at the Grade 1 Los Alamitos Futurity was a run away, but the competition in that race is questionable. His biggest problem is going to be the specter of Justify, and how his reputation was ruined within the horse community by the circumstances in the Belmont (and butt-hurt bettors) as well as the WinStar/China Horse Club perceived shenanigans afterward.
3.Coliseum - The "third" Baffert entry that I think has a real chance. Yes, he's only raced once (and won, impressively, but we're going to find out a lot more about this colt Saturday in the Grade 3 Sham where he faces Gunmetal Gray, another horse we'll talk about on here and my longshot in the race, the Baffert Trained Much Better (How I'll also mention next)
4. Much Better - Another Baffert horse, but few are giving this one a chance, which I think is a mistake. Much Better ran his first race on dirt, and won handily, then was inexplicably moved to turf where he didn't like the surface as well. He moves back to the dirt for the Sham, where I think he'll do "much better".
5. Maximus Mischief - This Butch Reid trained colt has ran thrice, and won all three. His best run was in the Grade 2 Remsan at Aquaduct, where he ran away from the talented Netrwork Effect and outduled a horse that I really like in mile races in Tax. We'll likely see him next the first weekend in February running in the Grade 2 Holy Bull, always a key prep race.
6. Signalman - This horse has trainer Kenny McPeek written all over him. First, he was relatively cheap (a $32,000 purchase price) and 2nd, he's a grinder whose raced 5 times and has never not hit the board. His biggest disappointment was a 2nd place finish Breeder's Futurity, where Kincks Go shocked everyone winning at 40-1 over Signalman's valiant 2nd place run. He'll need some luck, don't they all, but I wouldn't be surprised if he gets in the field and messes up several bettor's exotics on Kentucky Derby Day.
7.Code of Honor - This horse was considered to be the most likely one to upset the Baffert apple cart before getting boat raced in the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes by Complexity. Was that just an aberration? We'll find out Saturday in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes, where he's up against a field any legitimate Derby contender should handle. I think he has the quality, but does he have the temperment, especially when things don't go as planned?
8. Vekoma - The scariest thing about this George Weaver trained colt is that he beat the aforementioned Network Effect handily in the Grade 3 Nashua, and did it while running as green as you can get. He was distracted down the stretch, trying to pull the jockey toward the grandstand and he STILL won by air. He's only ran twice and we haven't seen him around two-turns yet, but he's a talented horse who might make some noise if he can mature a little.
9. Instagrand - If there's a "buzz" horse among the contender's it's this colt, trained by Jerry Hollendorfer. He's won both of his two races going away, a 5 furlong MSW at Los Alamitos, and a domination of a pedestrian field in the Grade 2 Best Pal (6f). He was then shut down for the season by his connections and is expected to race sometime in the lead up to the KY Derby, we just don't know when. The thing about Instagram is that he's fast. He has great tactical speed and has shown a dominating closing kick at the shorter distances. Can he carry these traits to distance? Can he rate? Time will tell.
10. Knicks Go - The shocking winner of the Breeder's Futurity back in October at Keeneland followed that performance up with a solid 2nd place finish at the Breeder's Cup Juvenile. He then proceeded to lay an egg in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, also at Keeneland right after Thanksgiving. Was he just too tired? Do you draw a line through this race? We'll possibly find out at the Grade 3 Sam H. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs on February 9th.
11. Complexity - I'm including this Chad Brown runner in my analysis because of his solid win in the Grade 1 Champagne. Yes, he spit the bit in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile (finishing 10th) and it is concerning that this race was ran on the same track as the Derby with a similar crowd. But Brown is a solid trainer, albeit better on turf, who knows how to prep horses for big races. Can he bounce back? Do you draw a line through that race? Time will tell.
One thing we do know is that many of the horse prognosticators are considering sure things won't even make the Derby field the first Saturday in May. This time last year Justify hadn't even race yet. There will be upsets, horses who just flame out and horses listed above that just aren't as good at distance and two turns as we think they are.
What we are NOT going to do this year is start making any assumptions about the quality of this 3YO crop until they face older horses later in the year.
More importantly, horse racing is about to gear up in a big way for 2019. Starting off with early Derby Preps and then the always entertaining Pegasus. I'll be taking a look at those horses on here soon.
Bet wisely this weekend and enjoy the year.
Thursday, January 3, 2019
GambleBlog: Thinking about the 2019 Gambling Year.
Tuesday marked a new year, which means that everyone is rushing forth with a list of resolutions that you should make because they really, really want you to.
I say forget all of that. This is a gambling blog, we don't do resolutions here. What we do like to do however is take a stab at listing unpredictable events. It's like we're doing a forecast for a corporate Vice President who doesn't understand future tense.
But that's OK, because it's fun to dream.
Sports Betting: My prediction for 2019 is that business is going to pick up, but not as fast as some think.
- First, there's the whole "Federal Government Getting Involved" question that needs to be answered. And despite the fact that the Feds getting involved in something has rarely in history improved it, the gang of functional idiots that we continue to elect to 'represent' us is going to try anyway. Why? Because they see money, and money is the true driving force be hind all politics. Whether it's money to coffers or campaign money Congresspeople and Senators see a big ol' kitty that they can pass along to their political patrons. The States and sports book operators are going to need to ban together to put a stop to this, or the nascent sports betting industry could find itself crippled before it fully gets off the ground.
- Second, lets cool our jets on the whole "30 States are poised to legalize sports betting" nonsense. While it's entirely probable that some States are going to get on board, we ARE talking about State Legislatures here. Typically, State Representatives and Senators are significantly lower on the intelligence scale than their Federal counterparts, they're still in training you see. Several of the 30 states will blow it completely, several others will walk in mud for the entire year, and the few that can actually fog a mirror might pass something that's just barely workable. My prediction is we'll see a stall in State passage until the dimwits in DC figure out what they're going to do.
- Third, existing sports betting States have to get a handle on regulation. Earlier this year FanDuel was allowed by the State of New Jersey to pay out all Alabama Championship bets early. This was a horrid decision that was sold by FanDuel as fan-friendly but which really served only to skew the markets. It should have never been allowed and in Nevada it would not have been. If you're a State that is looking to legalize sports betting, make sure the people who write your regulations and enforce them know what they are doing. If in doubt, copy Nevada.
Horse Betting: I remain a horse player but I have no idea why.
- First, fixing the takeout problem should be the number one issue in horse racing, but it's not even close to the top 100 for the powers that be. One of the reasons for this is that many track presidents and big-name personalities view horse players with a level of contempt typically reserved for ponzi scheme operators. Until the industry comes to the understanding that betting IS the driving force behind the industry they are going to continue to have to rely on supplemental slot machine income (where available) to subsidize the industry.
- Second, the Stronach Group must be stopped. Yes, they've had some good ideas. The Pegasus World Cup Day is growing on me, and they've done a remarkable job with Laurel Park (if only the Preakness could be moved there) but in large part they are the bastions of huge takeouts and slot supplements. It will be interesting to see if they can succeed at Santa Anita, but early returns are not promising. People said "change was needed to they fired most of the things that were right at Santa Anita (the people) and are making the things that are wrong (high takeout, betting structure) worse (Horse Racing Roulette). If this is how they operate sans slot machines racing is in for a time.
- Third, more focus on the later season races and less on the Triple Crown please. I realize this is sacrilege, and many will hate it, but Triple Crown Hegemony is destroying the sport as increasingly large numbers of casual fans totally tune out after the Belmont (or before if no triple crown is one the line) and are all but ignoring the best racing of the year in the Summer and Fall. That horse racing is not strongly promoting the Breeder's Cup as horse racing's championship (yes, they pay lip service but still) is a crime. Ask most people who the "Champion horse of 2018" was and they'll tell you Justify. What he did was great, but Audible was better and should be horse of the year based on resume. Speaking of that: no one will even notice outside of the extremely insular horse racing community.
Las Vegas: The place I call "home" is increasingly becoming less and less homely.
- First, something has to be done to get the casinos to understand that dog-shit odds, poor pay-tables coupled with high fees is not the path to profitability. I'm not arguing that we return Vegas to a mythical "value destination" but something needs to be done to return some feeling that customers are getting some value. High resort fees that offer little in the way of amenities, which are in reality room rates stated a different way to keep search results artificially cheap, Concession "fees" which are a joke, and service fees for spas and other amenities of which a portion the casinos keep are driving people away. It seems like they finally saw the light on parking fees, or are starting to, hopefully they get it on the other fees as well. Also, about some of those prices......
- Second, can we please have 2019 be the year that 3-zero Roulette dies the rotten and ugly death that it deserves? The same goes for 7/5 Double Double Bonus Video Poker pay-tables on the strip, or the best games being 6/5 bonus at the quarter level (the games most patrons play). I'd include 6/5 blackjack on this list but I understand that the end of that abomination is going to take a lot of heavy lifting because it's much more entrenched. Right now I'd settle for a roll-back on Roulette, better VP pay-tables and that blackjack doesn't get worse to the tune of 11/10, which I'm afraid we're going to see very soon if things stay the same. Gambling odds always favor the house. Players know this but they're willing to take the chance if they feel there's a CHANCE they can win. By making odds worse on the popular games (I won't even get into Penny slots because, well, they are never going to get better) Vegas is stripping away all of the fun and reason to play, on the Strip anyway. The bad thing is we're starting to see this disease infect downtown. Horrid.
- Third, gotta get a handle on that crime Vegas. I'm not referring to the events of October 1, which were horrid, I'm talking about two people getting murdered at Circus Circus, in their room because a thief was allowed to come up and enter rooms. I'm talking about people getting shot, robbed, mugged, assaulted on a semi-regular basis IN TOURIST AREAS. The 1970's in Vegas were a horrid time because people did not feel safe on the streets. The city and business leaders are letting those days come back into being and it's threatening to add even stronger headwinds to a city that should be doing much better than it is when you consider the economic times. Remember: Casinos are starting to show signs of strain during the GOOD times, what happens when the next recession comes? Get with it y'all.
- Fourth, can we all go ahead and agree that the 'Interactive gaming' and 'esports' things were busts? That all of the work trying to fix the so-called millennial problem were misguided? OF COURSE millennials like to gamble, they just do it in more social ways. When you see someone in my generation (X, if you're wondering) gambling you're likely to see three people playing side-by-side at slot-machines, video-poker terminals or in chairs at a table. If you see three millennials gambling you'll find one playing, and two cheering them on. It's social for them. They want to win, and immediately post that win to social media. On that note how about loosening up and letting people take pictures of their wins, or video their slot play. If your security experts can't tell the difference between someone trying to record wins and play for fund and someone doing it for nefarious purposes they need to go back to training.
In short, I think that 2019 is going to see the gaming industry get worse, before it starts to get better. But there will be signs of life. Already we're hearing reports that casinos are considering lowering resort fees, room rates, and some casinos, even on the Strip, are making a big deal about having better odds. This is a huge plus and a trend that I hope we see continue as the months roll by.
For sports gaming we'll see more "wait and see" than actual change, but there will be a LOT more coverage as it continues to go mainstream. Obviously, some of this will be good and some will be really, really bad. An unlisted challenge for sports betting is going to be the tout industry, and toning down sports betting "experts" who can be some of the most unlikable, unflinchingly judgmental people in the world. Attracting casual bettors could be a chore.
Horse racing has the same problem. The horse industry is very insular, and not very welcoming to outsiders. Horse track regulars are a surly lot, more likely to curse at someone for what they perceive is a bad bet than celebrating a good one. Horse tracks themselves continue to treat patrons as if they're entitled to them.
For me, personally, 2019 will be a continuation of 2018. I do plan on making one less trip to Vegas this year over last however, not because of Vegas but because there are a couple of other places I plan on going. I might even incorporate some trip blogging on this blog.
To all of you still reading, I wish you good fortune, good luck, good eating and good drinking the entire year. May you spend most of it with the ones you love.
I say forget all of that. This is a gambling blog, we don't do resolutions here. What we do like to do however is take a stab at listing unpredictable events. It's like we're doing a forecast for a corporate Vice President who doesn't understand future tense.
But that's OK, because it's fun to dream.
Sports Betting: My prediction for 2019 is that business is going to pick up, but not as fast as some think.
- First, there's the whole "Federal Government Getting Involved" question that needs to be answered. And despite the fact that the Feds getting involved in something has rarely in history improved it, the gang of functional idiots that we continue to elect to 'represent' us is going to try anyway. Why? Because they see money, and money is the true driving force be hind all politics. Whether it's money to coffers or campaign money Congresspeople and Senators see a big ol' kitty that they can pass along to their political patrons. The States and sports book operators are going to need to ban together to put a stop to this, or the nascent sports betting industry could find itself crippled before it fully gets off the ground.
- Second, lets cool our jets on the whole "30 States are poised to legalize sports betting" nonsense. While it's entirely probable that some States are going to get on board, we ARE talking about State Legislatures here. Typically, State Representatives and Senators are significantly lower on the intelligence scale than their Federal counterparts, they're still in training you see. Several of the 30 states will blow it completely, several others will walk in mud for the entire year, and the few that can actually fog a mirror might pass something that's just barely workable. My prediction is we'll see a stall in State passage until the dimwits in DC figure out what they're going to do.
- Third, existing sports betting States have to get a handle on regulation. Earlier this year FanDuel was allowed by the State of New Jersey to pay out all Alabama Championship bets early. This was a horrid decision that was sold by FanDuel as fan-friendly but which really served only to skew the markets. It should have never been allowed and in Nevada it would not have been. If you're a State that is looking to legalize sports betting, make sure the people who write your regulations and enforce them know what they are doing. If in doubt, copy Nevada.
Horse Betting: I remain a horse player but I have no idea why.
- First, fixing the takeout problem should be the number one issue in horse racing, but it's not even close to the top 100 for the powers that be. One of the reasons for this is that many track presidents and big-name personalities view horse players with a level of contempt typically reserved for ponzi scheme operators. Until the industry comes to the understanding that betting IS the driving force behind the industry they are going to continue to have to rely on supplemental slot machine income (where available) to subsidize the industry.
- Second, the Stronach Group must be stopped. Yes, they've had some good ideas. The Pegasus World Cup Day is growing on me, and they've done a remarkable job with Laurel Park (if only the Preakness could be moved there) but in large part they are the bastions of huge takeouts and slot supplements. It will be interesting to see if they can succeed at Santa Anita, but early returns are not promising. People said "change was needed to they fired most of the things that were right at Santa Anita (the people) and are making the things that are wrong (high takeout, betting structure) worse (Horse Racing Roulette). If this is how they operate sans slot machines racing is in for a time.
- Third, more focus on the later season races and less on the Triple Crown please. I realize this is sacrilege, and many will hate it, but Triple Crown Hegemony is destroying the sport as increasingly large numbers of casual fans totally tune out after the Belmont (or before if no triple crown is one the line) and are all but ignoring the best racing of the year in the Summer and Fall. That horse racing is not strongly promoting the Breeder's Cup as horse racing's championship (yes, they pay lip service but still) is a crime. Ask most people who the "Champion horse of 2018" was and they'll tell you Justify. What he did was great, but Audible was better and should be horse of the year based on resume. Speaking of that: no one will even notice outside of the extremely insular horse racing community.
Las Vegas: The place I call "home" is increasingly becoming less and less homely.
- First, something has to be done to get the casinos to understand that dog-shit odds, poor pay-tables coupled with high fees is not the path to profitability. I'm not arguing that we return Vegas to a mythical "value destination" but something needs to be done to return some feeling that customers are getting some value. High resort fees that offer little in the way of amenities, which are in reality room rates stated a different way to keep search results artificially cheap, Concession "fees" which are a joke, and service fees for spas and other amenities of which a portion the casinos keep are driving people away. It seems like they finally saw the light on parking fees, or are starting to, hopefully they get it on the other fees as well. Also, about some of those prices......
- Second, can we please have 2019 be the year that 3-zero Roulette dies the rotten and ugly death that it deserves? The same goes for 7/5 Double Double Bonus Video Poker pay-tables on the strip, or the best games being 6/5 bonus at the quarter level (the games most patrons play). I'd include 6/5 blackjack on this list but I understand that the end of that abomination is going to take a lot of heavy lifting because it's much more entrenched. Right now I'd settle for a roll-back on Roulette, better VP pay-tables and that blackjack doesn't get worse to the tune of 11/10, which I'm afraid we're going to see very soon if things stay the same. Gambling odds always favor the house. Players know this but they're willing to take the chance if they feel there's a CHANCE they can win. By making odds worse on the popular games (I won't even get into Penny slots because, well, they are never going to get better) Vegas is stripping away all of the fun and reason to play, on the Strip anyway. The bad thing is we're starting to see this disease infect downtown. Horrid.
- Third, gotta get a handle on that crime Vegas. I'm not referring to the events of October 1, which were horrid, I'm talking about two people getting murdered at Circus Circus, in their room because a thief was allowed to come up and enter rooms. I'm talking about people getting shot, robbed, mugged, assaulted on a semi-regular basis IN TOURIST AREAS. The 1970's in Vegas were a horrid time because people did not feel safe on the streets. The city and business leaders are letting those days come back into being and it's threatening to add even stronger headwinds to a city that should be doing much better than it is when you consider the economic times. Remember: Casinos are starting to show signs of strain during the GOOD times, what happens when the next recession comes? Get with it y'all.
- Fourth, can we all go ahead and agree that the 'Interactive gaming' and 'esports' things were busts? That all of the work trying to fix the so-called millennial problem were misguided? OF COURSE millennials like to gamble, they just do it in more social ways. When you see someone in my generation (X, if you're wondering) gambling you're likely to see three people playing side-by-side at slot-machines, video-poker terminals or in chairs at a table. If you see three millennials gambling you'll find one playing, and two cheering them on. It's social for them. They want to win, and immediately post that win to social media. On that note how about loosening up and letting people take pictures of their wins, or video their slot play. If your security experts can't tell the difference between someone trying to record wins and play for fund and someone doing it for nefarious purposes they need to go back to training.
In short, I think that 2019 is going to see the gaming industry get worse, before it starts to get better. But there will be signs of life. Already we're hearing reports that casinos are considering lowering resort fees, room rates, and some casinos, even on the Strip, are making a big deal about having better odds. This is a huge plus and a trend that I hope we see continue as the months roll by.
For sports gaming we'll see more "wait and see" than actual change, but there will be a LOT more coverage as it continues to go mainstream. Obviously, some of this will be good and some will be really, really bad. An unlisted challenge for sports betting is going to be the tout industry, and toning down sports betting "experts" who can be some of the most unlikable, unflinchingly judgmental people in the world. Attracting casual bettors could be a chore.
Horse racing has the same problem. The horse industry is very insular, and not very welcoming to outsiders. Horse track regulars are a surly lot, more likely to curse at someone for what they perceive is a bad bet than celebrating a good one. Horse tracks themselves continue to treat patrons as if they're entitled to them.
For me, personally, 2019 will be a continuation of 2018. I do plan on making one less trip to Vegas this year over last however, not because of Vegas but because there are a couple of other places I plan on going. I might even incorporate some trip blogging on this blog.
To all of you still reading, I wish you good fortune, good luck, good eating and good drinking the entire year. May you spend most of it with the ones you love.
College Football: What to do with the SEC?
Already, after the bowl games, the noise coming from the Southeastern portion of these United States is deafening.
"Georgia didn't care"
"LSU was missing like, 50 starters"
"It should have been an all SEC playoff"
And on and on.
Yes, it's deafening, and it makes rational college football fans want to pull their hair out (or, if you're more rational, makes you want to pull their hair out and stuff it in their mouths). But the problem is that the excuse making and apologia for SEC conference teams is not going to go away. It's going to amplify.
Media shills, Paul Finebaum, Kirk Herbstreit, and a host of others working for CBS, have financial interests in ensuring that their bestest TV partners are well taken care of and a slightly unbalanced fan base with access to social media will continue to jump into every rational conversation with takes like "if they would have played this game in November Georgia would have killed Texas". OK, sure.
While Paul Finebaum is a special case, he's more content troll than actual "reporter" CBS and ESPN have plenty of scribes, former players and folks with journalism degrees who will crow about the glorious advantages of the SEC over everyone else and then shut down any and all debate by appealing to authority.
"One of us is paid to talk about this, and the other one is you"
The defense above, or some variation of it, is used to discredit almost any dissent from the BSECT orthodoxy and it's 100% garbage.
First off, WHO is paying you?
Is it CBS? Because outside of a few games on CBSSports the entirety of their college football coverage is the tier-one SEC game and Army-Navy. Their entire college football network is designed to promote the SEC above all other conferences. So, despite their protestations to the contrary them BEING paid to shill is a negative for them.
ESPN? Also the owners of the SEC Network. Granted, ESPN has contracts with every other conference as well but their bell cow is SEC football. They mask behind those other games they show but outside of UT-Austin (and the Longhorn Network) ESPN's loyalty lies with the conference to which they're most intertwined. They also have exclusivity on the College Football Playoff Invitational, and have to pay due deference to the entity that's single-handedly destroying the sport.
FOX? They have the B1G and Pac-12, both of whom got excluded from the 4-team invitational this year. Who do you think it was making the most noise about expansion to 8-teams early? For that matter, who's been trying to pump the brakes the hardest? (A: CBS and ESPN)
The point to this is there's very little 'honest' college football talk on TV. Even less in newspapers. In fact, the "best" source for good, honest college football reporting right now are from the various Internet sites, excluding Yahoo! Sports obviously, which is a trash fire on the best of days.
But the problem remains: How are the rest of us supposed to deal with an irrational fan base who over-celebrates wins, has a silly habit of trying to take all the success of Alabama and absorb it into themselves, and has ready-made excuses to wash away any loss?
The answer? Segregation.
No, no the nasty stuff from the 50's and 60's that was rightfully swept into the dust-bin of history. I'm talking about walling off the SEC from everyone else, forcing them to play each other and just leave us rational people alone.
Look, if Alabama feels the need to continue playing the Citadel to make them happy so be it. But what we really need to do is limit them to FCS buy games and games against each other. For the health of the country all other FBS teams need to refuse the SEC games, and keep them out of our national conscious.
Let the SEC play 4 FCS games each and continue on with a watered-down 8-game conference schedule to their heart's content. Let them play each other in bowl games, let them hold their own 4-team SEC Playoff and crown themselves King of football if it makes them happy, but ridding the rest of college football of the SEC is really the only solution that will make everyone happy.
Of course, we're all probably going to have to bite the bullet and create some social media platforms for them as well. SECTwitter comes to mind immediately, I'm not sure if Jack would be willing to do that but we could probably convince him if we tried. He might even allow some non SEC bots to come in with nice Tweets about non-SEC teams to really get the fan bases in a lather.
The alternative to this solution is that we're going to have to put up with more and more of the same and that's just not sustainable for anyone.
Under the old system, the regional system, we all knew the SEC was populated by idiot fans but the crossover sample that we saw was relatively small. For the most part their bowl tie-ins were with ACC fans and that was just fine by us. The ACC really only cares about basketball anyway so their fans were less offended. Unfortunately, now that we've broken bowl/conference alignments, we're all subjected to a stream of craziness that starts in June and doesn't end until well into February.
It has to stop. Carving them out is the only way to stop it.
"Georgia didn't care"
"LSU was missing like, 50 starters"
"It should have been an all SEC playoff"
And on and on.
Yes, it's deafening, and it makes rational college football fans want to pull their hair out (or, if you're more rational, makes you want to pull their hair out and stuff it in their mouths). But the problem is that the excuse making and apologia for SEC conference teams is not going to go away. It's going to amplify.
Media shills, Paul Finebaum, Kirk Herbstreit, and a host of others working for CBS, have financial interests in ensuring that their bestest TV partners are well taken care of and a slightly unbalanced fan base with access to social media will continue to jump into every rational conversation with takes like "if they would have played this game in November Georgia would have killed Texas". OK, sure.
While Paul Finebaum is a special case, he's more content troll than actual "reporter" CBS and ESPN have plenty of scribes, former players and folks with journalism degrees who will crow about the glorious advantages of the SEC over everyone else and then shut down any and all debate by appealing to authority.
"One of us is paid to talk about this, and the other one is you"
The defense above, or some variation of it, is used to discredit almost any dissent from the BSECT orthodoxy and it's 100% garbage.
First off, WHO is paying you?
Is it CBS? Because outside of a few games on CBSSports the entirety of their college football coverage is the tier-one SEC game and Army-Navy. Their entire college football network is designed to promote the SEC above all other conferences. So, despite their protestations to the contrary them BEING paid to shill is a negative for them.
ESPN? Also the owners of the SEC Network. Granted, ESPN has contracts with every other conference as well but their bell cow is SEC football. They mask behind those other games they show but outside of UT-Austin (and the Longhorn Network) ESPN's loyalty lies with the conference to which they're most intertwined. They also have exclusivity on the College Football Playoff Invitational, and have to pay due deference to the entity that's single-handedly destroying the sport.
FOX? They have the B1G and Pac-12, both of whom got excluded from the 4-team invitational this year. Who do you think it was making the most noise about expansion to 8-teams early? For that matter, who's been trying to pump the brakes the hardest? (A: CBS and ESPN)
The point to this is there's very little 'honest' college football talk on TV. Even less in newspapers. In fact, the "best" source for good, honest college football reporting right now are from the various Internet sites, excluding Yahoo! Sports obviously, which is a trash fire on the best of days.
But the problem remains: How are the rest of us supposed to deal with an irrational fan base who over-celebrates wins, has a silly habit of trying to take all the success of Alabama and absorb it into themselves, and has ready-made excuses to wash away any loss?
The answer? Segregation.
No, no the nasty stuff from the 50's and 60's that was rightfully swept into the dust-bin of history. I'm talking about walling off the SEC from everyone else, forcing them to play each other and just leave us rational people alone.
Look, if Alabama feels the need to continue playing the Citadel to make them happy so be it. But what we really need to do is limit them to FCS buy games and games against each other. For the health of the country all other FBS teams need to refuse the SEC games, and keep them out of our national conscious.
Let the SEC play 4 FCS games each and continue on with a watered-down 8-game conference schedule to their heart's content. Let them play each other in bowl games, let them hold their own 4-team SEC Playoff and crown themselves King of football if it makes them happy, but ridding the rest of college football of the SEC is really the only solution that will make everyone happy.
Of course, we're all probably going to have to bite the bullet and create some social media platforms for them as well. SECTwitter comes to mind immediately, I'm not sure if Jack would be willing to do that but we could probably convince him if we tried. He might even allow some non SEC bots to come in with nice Tweets about non-SEC teams to really get the fan bases in a lather.
The alternative to this solution is that we're going to have to put up with more and more of the same and that's just not sustainable for anyone.
Under the old system, the regional system, we all knew the SEC was populated by idiot fans but the crossover sample that we saw was relatively small. For the most part their bowl tie-ins were with ACC fans and that was just fine by us. The ACC really only cares about basketball anyway so their fans were less offended. Unfortunately, now that we've broken bowl/conference alignments, we're all subjected to a stream of craziness that starts in June and doesn't end until well into February.
It has to stop. Carving them out is the only way to stop it.
Wednesday, January 2, 2019
College Football: Ignore the Noise
After BEVO went after Uga and Texas went after Georgia in the Sugar Bowl it's all over. Except the talking.
"Georgia is one of the four BSECT teams"
"But they didn't care against Texas"
"UCF's loss to LSU proves they don't belong"
"But they had a backup QB"
"But they were missing nine starters"
"Ohio State proved they should be in the playoff"
"It's about the best teams"
Drown it all out, because all of it is bunk. The fact of the matter is this: No team markedly changed the narrative for them that had already been litigated at length, prior to any of these games being played.
Georgia? A very good team that lost against two of the best teams they faced and expected to be rewarded for that because SEC, or something.
Ohio State? A very talented, but flawed team that got inexplicably hammered by Purdue.
Notre Dame? A physically challenged team who nevertheless ran the table and deserved their shot at the big boys.
Oklahoma? A team with defensive challenges who avenged their only loss against a team that was good enough to play in a NY 6 bowl and, as such, deserved a chance to get a shot.
UCF? A Group of 5 school who went undefeated for 25 games straight and came within a score of knocking off a Top 10 caliber P5 team despite missing their team's most valuable player.
LSU? Freakishly talented and deep, but not yet at the level of Bama.
Alabama and Clemson? Clearly the two best programs in college football right now.
None of these narratives regarding any of these teams changed over the course of the bowl season, in fact, in many cases they were confirmed. This is true despite what the hot take crowd is now spewing out.
So don't believe all of the excuses that Paul Finebaum and others are going to make for Georgia. Not being sufficiently motivated to play in a game after talking trash about other teams is a team flaw. If Georgia wasn't up for Texas after talking all the trash they did then that says more about their program than the system itself. They should have wanted to come out and prove to the world that they are one of the four best teams instead of relying on the FOUR BSECT TEAMS hype from Kirk Herbstreit et al.
But they didn't.
In college football there is so much fun and good on the field. Teams playing fun football games that play out as if the teams have been heavily drinking since the night before. Strange plays that make you sit up and shout at the TV, tragedy, human drama, all of it self-contained in something that's not all that important in the grand scheme of things.
You're reminded of that when you think about Tyler Trent, Purdue super-fan and inspiration to many who died on the first day of the year from his third fight with cancer. Those are things that are important, not the score of some game played between men who, in many cases, will never play this game again.
On the field, college football had a down 2018, like pretty much everything else about the year it was just "meh". Sure there were brilliant individual moments, but no single week was out-of-this-world bonkers in a way that made us all laugh with joy. For the most part it was a slog. A slot of inevitability that Clemson vs. Alabama was going to determine the Championship once again and that we're all pretty much had about as much of that as we can handle.
Even Bama and Clemson fans appear to be bored with it, as the secondary market for tickets is spitting out prices that are lower than face-value. Granted, some of this can be marked-off as bad venue selection. Levi's Field in Santa Clara has logistical and historical-tie issues that wouldn't be noticed had college football decided to play this game at say, the Rose Bowl.
But, play it they will. For most of us it will be too late in the evening on a Monday night and therefore our viewing will peter out somewhere around halftime. Which will be a fitting end for this wet fart of a season if you really think about it.
Housekeeping: I went 23-26 with 2 NC during bowl season. I did hit several upsets on the ML which left my bankroll pretty much intact. The beginning and the end of the schedule was harsh, especially the last day where all of the games started promising, and then fell into a heap in the second half.
As I stated before, I will not be analyzing or making any predictions on the CFPI Championship game.
On to college basketball and horse racing.
"Georgia is one of the four BSECT teams"
"But they didn't care against Texas"
"UCF's loss to LSU proves they don't belong"
"But they had a backup QB"
"But they were missing nine starters"
"Ohio State proved they should be in the playoff"
"It's about the best teams"
Drown it all out, because all of it is bunk. The fact of the matter is this: No team markedly changed the narrative for them that had already been litigated at length, prior to any of these games being played.
Georgia? A very good team that lost against two of the best teams they faced and expected to be rewarded for that because SEC, or something.
Ohio State? A very talented, but flawed team that got inexplicably hammered by Purdue.
Notre Dame? A physically challenged team who nevertheless ran the table and deserved their shot at the big boys.
Oklahoma? A team with defensive challenges who avenged their only loss against a team that was good enough to play in a NY 6 bowl and, as such, deserved a chance to get a shot.
UCF? A Group of 5 school who went undefeated for 25 games straight and came within a score of knocking off a Top 10 caliber P5 team despite missing their team's most valuable player.
LSU? Freakishly talented and deep, but not yet at the level of Bama.
Alabama and Clemson? Clearly the two best programs in college football right now.
None of these narratives regarding any of these teams changed over the course of the bowl season, in fact, in many cases they were confirmed. This is true despite what the hot take crowd is now spewing out.
So don't believe all of the excuses that Paul Finebaum and others are going to make for Georgia. Not being sufficiently motivated to play in a game after talking trash about other teams is a team flaw. If Georgia wasn't up for Texas after talking all the trash they did then that says more about their program than the system itself. They should have wanted to come out and prove to the world that they are one of the four best teams instead of relying on the FOUR BSECT TEAMS hype from Kirk Herbstreit et al.
But they didn't.
In college football there is so much fun and good on the field. Teams playing fun football games that play out as if the teams have been heavily drinking since the night before. Strange plays that make you sit up and shout at the TV, tragedy, human drama, all of it self-contained in something that's not all that important in the grand scheme of things.
You're reminded of that when you think about Tyler Trent, Purdue super-fan and inspiration to many who died on the first day of the year from his third fight with cancer. Those are things that are important, not the score of some game played between men who, in many cases, will never play this game again.
On the field, college football had a down 2018, like pretty much everything else about the year it was just "meh". Sure there were brilliant individual moments, but no single week was out-of-this-world bonkers in a way that made us all laugh with joy. For the most part it was a slog. A slot of inevitability that Clemson vs. Alabama was going to determine the Championship once again and that we're all pretty much had about as much of that as we can handle.
Even Bama and Clemson fans appear to be bored with it, as the secondary market for tickets is spitting out prices that are lower than face-value. Granted, some of this can be marked-off as bad venue selection. Levi's Field in Santa Clara has logistical and historical-tie issues that wouldn't be noticed had college football decided to play this game at say, the Rose Bowl.
But, play it they will. For most of us it will be too late in the evening on a Monday night and therefore our viewing will peter out somewhere around halftime. Which will be a fitting end for this wet fart of a season if you really think about it.
Housekeeping: I went 23-26 with 2 NC during bowl season. I did hit several upsets on the ML which left my bankroll pretty much intact. The beginning and the end of the schedule was harsh, especially the last day where all of the games started promising, and then fell into a heap in the second half.
As I stated before, I will not be analyzing or making any predictions on the CFPI Championship game.
On to college basketball and horse racing.
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