In the final analysis, gambling, is a losing proposition on almost every game in the casino. Yes, there are some games where, if you spend the time developing your skill, you might be able to squeak out a .5% advantage over the house (counting cards in blackjack for example) or, you MIGHT be able to find a "full-pay" video poker machine that provides you with a less than 1% edge if played PERFECTLY. You might even be an above-average poker player who sits down to a table and has an edge over suckers, or a "sharp" sports bettor who has a solid algorithm.
You might.
Each of these things takes many hours of practice and no small amount of skill. Hours and mathematical skill that, quite frankly, not all of us possess.
For the average gambler, in any given casino, the hard facts are this:
You're playing a negative expectation game and your money is really a fee for entertainment. In the long run, you're going to lose. They don't build these casinos on the backs of winning gamblers after all. Going broke owning a casino is more an example of horrible business acumen than it is a sustained run of bad luck. Winning in a casino is mostly luck. (and a little math)
That being said, your goals on any gambling trip should be:
1. To have fun.
2. To make your bank roll last for you to have more fun.
With that in mind, let's talk about the return of an old gambling trend that needs to die out immediately: Game shaming.
You see it pop up on gambling forums, Twitter (where everything bad seems to metastasize) and other various forms of social media.
Take a picture of you making a side bet on BlackJack? Shame on you. There will be legions of comments, twitsponses and "experts" telling you this was a bad bet.
Video yourself playing video poker and you make an incorrect hold? Jerk. You will be told that you suck at gambling and you should never play again.
Play the Big 6 Wheel because you enjoy it? "You realize that game has the worst odds in the casino right?"
The fact that there are bad games in any casino should not surprise you. Triple Zero Roulette anyone? What should surprise you is that there has developed legions of "fun police" whose sole job it is to scour the Internet for people playing games, making bets, or holding cards with which they do not approve and actively scolding them for it.
And, you know what? It's time for this to stop.
The first (and most important) reason is this: When people scold you for playing bad games what they're really saying is that you don't like the things they do and that makes them angry.
The money you are putting down on a table, or playing in a machine, is YOUR money, not theirs. If they don't want to play those games or make those bets then let them do it with their money, not yours.
If you want to make the side-bet on blackjack, then make the damn side-bet on blackjack. If you want to play $20 on the Big 6 wheel, then play $20 on the Big 6 wheel. As long as you know the odds and understand the holds involved, then have at it. If other people don't like it then they're free to play the games they do like on their own dime.
I've been guilty of this. Specifically, calling out people for playing a bad pay-table on VP. But, after thinking about it, I've stopped doing that. Because sometimes you just play the pay-table that's available, and you live with it. If you get lucky and hit 4OAK then it really doesn't matter if the pay-table is 9/6 DDB, 9/5 DDB, 8/5 DDB or even 7/5 DDB (which is ALL OVER the Las Vegas Strip at the quarter level.)
What matters is that you're having fun.
This doesn't mean that I won't TELL people the correct hold, or talk to them about pay tables, IF ASKED. Of course I will. But if they don't want to know then I don't want to tell them. I congratulate them on their win, or having fun, and I move on.
I LOATHE 3-zero Roulette and would never play it myself. I feel the same way about 6:5 Blackjack. But I've NEVER chided someone in person, or online, for playing the same.
And neither should you.
It's OK to call out casinos when they put these awful games on the floor. The 4Queens casino, which I like and enjoy playing at, got rightly roasted online when they installed a 3-zero Roulette machine and advertised it as "giving the players more chances to win". You SHOULD call out a casino every time they make the odds worse. If you care about those things you should refuse to play the games. I, for one, will not play 6:5 blackjack and I'll inform the casinos, in person and on-line, that I won't.
But what I won't do is call out individual players for playing these games. Especially if they'r having fun.
Because gambling should be FUN. Unless you're a pro, and that's a different matter altogether.
Wednesday, September 25, 2019
College Football: A Different Approach to the Week 4 FIVE
After continuing the FIVE for the first few weeks I've realized that I don't have the time this year to track and play and handicap FIVE games in addition to whatever it is I decide to play.
So, I'm not going to do that any longer. Despite the fact that I was doing pretty good this year.
What I AM going to do is analyze a few games and talk about numbers where I'm considering pulling the trigger, or discussing game where there was opportunity that may now be missed, and explain when you could have gotten the line, and why so many probably missed it. I'll also discuss games where it might be wise to wait just a minute to see if something better becomes available.
So, without further ado:
FIVE Games for your consideration.
1. Houston @ North Texas (Opened at North Texas +2.5) - The second this line opened it dropped to North Texas +2, then North Texas +1. Then the bottom fell out. Houston QB D'Eriq King announced his red-shirt decision for the remainder of the year and the line immediately closed and re-opened at N. Texas -6. It's now all the way to -7.5. Here's the deal though.
Running the numbers I LIKED N. Texas as a home dog over UH even BEFORE the King announcement, and the feeling that UH is shutting it down this year. You could have grabbed them at +2 very easily if you'd been paying attention to lines on Sunday when they opened. Sadly, that ship has sailed.
There MIGHT be some small value at -6.5 if money starts coming in on the Cougars, but I doubt it. My guess now is that UNT kicks off somewhere in the range of -8.5 to -9.5.
2. Akron @ UMass (Opened at Akron -6) - This was a "blink and you missed it" opportunity as the line opened at -6, and then after the first round of betting slid to -5, before settling in at -7. If you were paying attention on Sunday however there was a decent opportunity to grab Akron at -5.
This is going to be a terrible game between two of the worst two teams in football. Here's the catch, UMass might be worse than anyone else by a long-ways, and Akron, albeit not good, has shown some signs of improvement. They at least displayed signs of a pulse against UAB and Central Michigan, before getting rolled by a good Troy team last week. UMass has shown nothing so far.
3. Cincinnati @ Marshall (Game opened at Cincinnati -2.5) - IF you could have bet into this game at the line opening -2.5 was outstanding value. It's currently sitting around -3.5 to -4 and I believe the value is gone. The last value play was -3, and if it dips down to that number I'd try and grab it. Cincinnati is a very good AAC team while Marshall is just a "good" AAC team. Being on the road will negate Cincy's edge some, but I still think they win and win easy.
This is another case where paying attention to next Saturday's college lines on Sunday might pay some dividends.
4. Ohio State @ Nebraska (Line opened at Ohio State -7) - Once this line opened, bettors had a feeding frenzy until they beat it up to -18. If you could get -7 (doubtful) as a recreational bettor then you're onto something, but I think there was value to be found here all the way up to -13.5, which you COULD get on Sunday.
That said, the line is still moving toward Ohio State so it's likely that the money is piling on the Buckeyes. This game should become an arbitrage opportunity if it continues to move the Buckeyes way, and it could be HUGE if it lands in the middle.
5. UCLA @ Arizona (Line opened at Arizona -7.5) - Here's a case where, if you like Arizona, it might pay dividends to wait. The current line is Arizona -7 but after last week's upset of Washington State the public seems to really like the Bruins here.
I can see this line dropping to Arizona -6 or -6.5 before kick-off and that would be a move across a key number that you could possibly want to take advantage of. Now, granted, there are risks with this strategy. For one, it's hard to tell if what we saw last week from UCLA was fool's gold and it's still unclear just how good Arizona really is. If you like UCLA you might have missed your value window however, so it's probably best to just watch the one play.
Profitable sports betting is HARD. Very few people can do it. Most people come in, take a look at the board and bet on games that 'feel' right. It's a very different thing to update the numbers, run your algorithms and fire based on that. The good news is, there are people out there doing that number crunching for you if you're not willing to create one yourself.
I wouldn't advise paying a tout, in most cases they're no better than random luck, but I would suggest you go out and try to find whatever it is you can to try and give you the biggest edge possible. Believe it or not, there are some very good bettors out there offering up selected picks for free. Pick about 5 of those and you have a week made with no additional expense.
Whatever you do, don't tail me. But I've told you that before.
Good luck in whatever you play.
So, I'm not going to do that any longer. Despite the fact that I was doing pretty good this year.
What I AM going to do is analyze a few games and talk about numbers where I'm considering pulling the trigger, or discussing game where there was opportunity that may now be missed, and explain when you could have gotten the line, and why so many probably missed it. I'll also discuss games where it might be wise to wait just a minute to see if something better becomes available.
So, without further ado:
FIVE Games for your consideration.
1. Houston @ North Texas (Opened at North Texas +2.5) - The second this line opened it dropped to North Texas +2, then North Texas +1. Then the bottom fell out. Houston QB D'Eriq King announced his red-shirt decision for the remainder of the year and the line immediately closed and re-opened at N. Texas -6. It's now all the way to -7.5. Here's the deal though.
Running the numbers I LIKED N. Texas as a home dog over UH even BEFORE the King announcement, and the feeling that UH is shutting it down this year. You could have grabbed them at +2 very easily if you'd been paying attention to lines on Sunday when they opened. Sadly, that ship has sailed.
There MIGHT be some small value at -6.5 if money starts coming in on the Cougars, but I doubt it. My guess now is that UNT kicks off somewhere in the range of -8.5 to -9.5.
2. Akron @ UMass (Opened at Akron -6) - This was a "blink and you missed it" opportunity as the line opened at -6, and then after the first round of betting slid to -5, before settling in at -7. If you were paying attention on Sunday however there was a decent opportunity to grab Akron at -5.
This is going to be a terrible game between two of the worst two teams in football. Here's the catch, UMass might be worse than anyone else by a long-ways, and Akron, albeit not good, has shown some signs of improvement. They at least displayed signs of a pulse against UAB and Central Michigan, before getting rolled by a good Troy team last week. UMass has shown nothing so far.
3. Cincinnati @ Marshall (Game opened at Cincinnati -2.5) - IF you could have bet into this game at the line opening -2.5 was outstanding value. It's currently sitting around -3.5 to -4 and I believe the value is gone. The last value play was -3, and if it dips down to that number I'd try and grab it. Cincinnati is a very good AAC team while Marshall is just a "good" AAC team. Being on the road will negate Cincy's edge some, but I still think they win and win easy.
This is another case where paying attention to next Saturday's college lines on Sunday might pay some dividends.
4. Ohio State @ Nebraska (Line opened at Ohio State -7) - Once this line opened, bettors had a feeding frenzy until they beat it up to -18. If you could get -7 (doubtful) as a recreational bettor then you're onto something, but I think there was value to be found here all the way up to -13.5, which you COULD get on Sunday.
That said, the line is still moving toward Ohio State so it's likely that the money is piling on the Buckeyes. This game should become an arbitrage opportunity if it continues to move the Buckeyes way, and it could be HUGE if it lands in the middle.
5. UCLA @ Arizona (Line opened at Arizona -7.5) - Here's a case where, if you like Arizona, it might pay dividends to wait. The current line is Arizona -7 but after last week's upset of Washington State the public seems to really like the Bruins here.
I can see this line dropping to Arizona -6 or -6.5 before kick-off and that would be a move across a key number that you could possibly want to take advantage of. Now, granted, there are risks with this strategy. For one, it's hard to tell if what we saw last week from UCLA was fool's gold and it's still unclear just how good Arizona really is. If you like UCLA you might have missed your value window however, so it's probably best to just watch the one play.
Profitable sports betting is HARD. Very few people can do it. Most people come in, take a look at the board and bet on games that 'feel' right. It's a very different thing to update the numbers, run your algorithms and fire based on that. The good news is, there are people out there doing that number crunching for you if you're not willing to create one yourself.
I wouldn't advise paying a tout, in most cases they're no better than random luck, but I would suggest you go out and try to find whatever it is you can to try and give you the biggest edge possible. Believe it or not, there are some very good bettors out there offering up selected picks for free. Pick about 5 of those and you have a week made with no additional expense.
Whatever you do, don't tail me. But I've told you that before.
Good luck in whatever you play.
Monday, September 16, 2019
College and NFL Football Break
After going 2-3 in my FIVE and 1-2 in my NFL 3 & OUT last week I'm forced to take a week off from doing picks due to business travel. I won't have time to properly run the numbers and analyze the games.
I MIGHT be able to provide some thoughts on the games, possibly on Wednesday, but won't be able to handicap.
So, enjoy the games next weekend. See you the week afterwards.
I MIGHT be able to provide some thoughts on the games, possibly on Wednesday, but won't be able to handicap.
So, enjoy the games next weekend. See you the week afterwards.
Thursday, September 12, 2019
Closing the Door on my Horse Race Betting Hobby
Or...why I quit worrying and learned to avoid the track.
The revelation, in the New York Times, that Justify failed a drug test during the Santa Anita Derby which would have denied him the points to enter the Kentucky Derby (which he won, leading to an eventual Triple Crown), isn't what's leading me to abandon betting on a sport that I once loved.
Nor is it the fact that several horses die due to injuries every year.
Nope, what's causing me to abandon the sport is that it's becoming increasingly clear that it's a rigged game. That the government agencies in charge of the sport are willingly rigging it in favor of bigger named trainers, owners, breeders and jockeys.
My fall-out began last year in the Kentucky Derby, and it's come to a nadir with this story. This is on top of all the troubling recent news about increased take-out and several industry "influencers" stating that betting is not an integral part of horse racing and that bettors aren't really needed.
OK then, we're going to test that theory because I'm done. Finished. The last bet that I placed on a horse race IS the last bet I will ever place on a horse race. Because I cannot in good conscious bet into a game that's rigged against me, and that doesn't value my money, time and investment.
Strangely enough, this will also affect several other decisions in my sports life.
1. I'm getting rid of the increasingly terrible U-Verse TV service. Pretty much the ONLY reason I kept them was to keep up with goings-on on TVG. Now that I don't need that service any longer, hail and farewell, hello streaming.
2. I've probably spent my last dollar at Sam Houston Race Park. This is the hardest choice because I really liked going there. But going there and not betting seems silly and pretty much a waste of time.
3. Since I'm not betting on races I probably won't even WATCH the races.
It's not that there aren't other, less problematic, areas to scratch the sports-betting itch, even in notoriously betting unfriendly (and backwards) Texas. All of them better than betting on a game that's become hopelessly corrupt, extremely backward and, in most cases, unprofitable due to the manipulation of tote boards on the "last tick" before the races go off.
So, Good Bye horse racing, I truly hope you can dust yourself off and turn yourself around and become a viable gaming option again, but I doubt it. Because the people in charge, and the media covering you, have become just as corrupt and untrustworthy as every other government or media agency.
It's all Fake News now, no matter which side you're on.
At least I'll always have Afleet Alex in the Preakness, and War Emblem and especially Secretariat.
I'll keep those memories.
The revelation, in the New York Times, that Justify failed a drug test during the Santa Anita Derby which would have denied him the points to enter the Kentucky Derby (which he won, leading to an eventual Triple Crown), isn't what's leading me to abandon betting on a sport that I once loved.
Nor is it the fact that several horses die due to injuries every year.
Nope, what's causing me to abandon the sport is that it's becoming increasingly clear that it's a rigged game. That the government agencies in charge of the sport are willingly rigging it in favor of bigger named trainers, owners, breeders and jockeys.
My fall-out began last year in the Kentucky Derby, and it's come to a nadir with this story. This is on top of all the troubling recent news about increased take-out and several industry "influencers" stating that betting is not an integral part of horse racing and that bettors aren't really needed.
OK then, we're going to test that theory because I'm done. Finished. The last bet that I placed on a horse race IS the last bet I will ever place on a horse race. Because I cannot in good conscious bet into a game that's rigged against me, and that doesn't value my money, time and investment.
Strangely enough, this will also affect several other decisions in my sports life.
1. I'm getting rid of the increasingly terrible U-Verse TV service. Pretty much the ONLY reason I kept them was to keep up with goings-on on TVG. Now that I don't need that service any longer, hail and farewell, hello streaming.
2. I've probably spent my last dollar at Sam Houston Race Park. This is the hardest choice because I really liked going there. But going there and not betting seems silly and pretty much a waste of time.
3. Since I'm not betting on races I probably won't even WATCH the races.
It's not that there aren't other, less problematic, areas to scratch the sports-betting itch, even in notoriously betting unfriendly (and backwards) Texas. All of them better than betting on a game that's become hopelessly corrupt, extremely backward and, in most cases, unprofitable due to the manipulation of tote boards on the "last tick" before the races go off.
So, Good Bye horse racing, I truly hope you can dust yourself off and turn yourself around and become a viable gaming option again, but I doubt it. Because the people in charge, and the media covering you, have become just as corrupt and untrustworthy as every other government or media agency.
It's all Fake News now, no matter which side you're on.
At least I'll always have Afleet Alex in the Preakness, and War Emblem and especially Secretariat.
I'll keep those memories.
NFL Week 2: The Debut 3 & OUT
Last week I did not complete an NFL post because of lack of time (and interest, on my part). I had a couple of personal plays (San Fran, New Orleans) and I went 1-1. This week I'm bringing back the NFL 3 & OUT for your comedy pleasure.
Let's get right to the games...
1. Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5) @ Detroit [-145 & +125 {O/U 47.5}
I'm not a believer in Matt Patricia as an NFL head coach. While I do think the Lions have some talent, I also think that the Chargers are the much better team here. I will say that I've warned people I could be wrong on the Lions so take that into consideration.
Prediction: Chargers 27 Lions 13 LA Chargers to COVER -2.5
2. Seattle @ Pittsburgh (-4) [+175 -200] {O/U 46.5}
While I'm not ready to count the Steelers out after they got throttled in Foxboro, I do think this front of the schedule is brutal, and I think Seattle has a team that's going to cause a ruckus in the NFC this season. The add of JD Clowney to the defense makes them formidable.
Prediction: Seattle 24 Pittsburgh 20 Seattle to WIN on the ML
3. Chicago (-2.5) @ Denver [-150 & +130] {O/U 40.5}
I did not need week 1 to tell me that Joe Flacco was not a good QB. I'm expecting Khalil Mack to feast against this O-Line. What did surprise me was just how bad Denver's defense played last week. Also, Mitchell Trubisky is exactly the QB I thought he would be.
Prediction: Chicago 24 Denver 7 Chicago to COVER -2.5
Going for it on 4th Down.
Jacksonville @ Houston (-9)
As I've stated online, one of my season tasks is to fad the Texans each week and track the results. Last week I picked New Orleans to cover and now I'm down one unit on this. So this week we select Jacksonville to cover +9 and we'll see how it goes.
Enjoy the games however you play, or even if you don't play.
Let's get right to the games...
1. Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5) @ Detroit [-145 & +125 {O/U 47.5}
I'm not a believer in Matt Patricia as an NFL head coach. While I do think the Lions have some talent, I also think that the Chargers are the much better team here. I will say that I've warned people I could be wrong on the Lions so take that into consideration.
Prediction: Chargers 27 Lions 13 LA Chargers to COVER -2.5
2. Seattle @ Pittsburgh (-4) [+175 -200] {O/U 46.5}
While I'm not ready to count the Steelers out after they got throttled in Foxboro, I do think this front of the schedule is brutal, and I think Seattle has a team that's going to cause a ruckus in the NFC this season. The add of JD Clowney to the defense makes them formidable.
Prediction: Seattle 24 Pittsburgh 20 Seattle to WIN on the ML
3. Chicago (-2.5) @ Denver [-150 & +130] {O/U 40.5}
I did not need week 1 to tell me that Joe Flacco was not a good QB. I'm expecting Khalil Mack to feast against this O-Line. What did surprise me was just how bad Denver's defense played last week. Also, Mitchell Trubisky is exactly the QB I thought he would be.
Prediction: Chicago 24 Denver 7 Chicago to COVER -2.5
Going for it on 4th Down.
Jacksonville @ Houston (-9)
As I've stated online, one of my season tasks is to fad the Texans each week and track the results. Last week I picked New Orleans to cover and now I'm down one unit on this. So this week we select Jacksonville to cover +9 and we'll see how it goes.
Enjoy the games however you play, or even if you don't play.
College Football: The Week 3 FIVE
Last week was a good week at TPM central. The FIVE went 4-1, and would have gone 5-0 had Mark Stoops had an ounce of sportsmanship in his body. Instead, he had his offense throw a TD pass up 14 points with :59 seconds left to go in the game, ruining the +15.5 cover.
I hope Kentucky doesn't win another game this season.
But, that said, on to the next week, one of the worst "on paper" matchup weeks of the season FWIW. This COULD mean that we're in for a big dallop of chaos theory, or.....
The Week 3 FIVE:
1. Washington State (-9) vs. Houston [-340 & +280] {O/U 74}
This game is being played at NRG Stadium, so while it's not really a home game for Houston it is played in Houston. This helps the Coogs but probably does not detract from the Cougs as much as many people think. The home field advantage is pretty strong for Houston in the Tillman, not so much at NRG, where the overall size, and acoustics, make the crowd seem quieter. I like Wazzu here, but not enough to give them the nod. I think the play in this game is on the number.
Predication: Wazzu 52 Houston 40 OVER 74
2. Kansas State @ Mississippi State (-8) [+260 & -330] {O/U 52}
IF Bill Snyder was still the coach of K-State I'd give them a serious look, but this is now Chris Klieman's team and I'm not sure whether the shock of not being at North Dakota State has fully enveloped him or not. I think the Bulldogs are good, and have the potential to be very good. We're gong to see a little bit rather I'm correct on that assumption here.
Prediction: Kansas State 7 Mississippi State 24 MSU to COVER -8 (I also like the UNDER here but that's not a FIVE pick)
3. Georgia State @ Western Michigan (-8.5) [+260 & -330] {O/U 69.5}
One thing I like about funny week 1 results is that they can cause some weird line ripple effects that, while diminishing over time, don't really go away until the end of the season because the public can't quite get that huge upset fully out of their minds. I think this is the case here based on my analytics.
Prediction: Georgia State 10 Western Michigan 42 Western Michigan to cover -8.5
4. TCU (-2.5) @ Purdue [-145 +125] {O/U 51.5]
This is one of those games that you initially look at and say "pass" until you start forgetting all of your pre-conceived notions from the past on these two teams and just evaluate them in the moment. My numbers say the line is about right, but I'm looking at the total here. I think it's low.
Prediction: TCU 38 Purdue 42 OVER 51.5
5. Hawai'i @ Washington (-21.5) [+1000 & -2000] {O/U 58.5}
Another case where I hate the number, although there could be some Hawai'i value there, and focus instead on the number. Yes, Washington has a good defense but no one has fully stopped the Rainbow Warrior's Run N' Shoot yet. Love the Over here.
Prediction: Hawai'i 28 Washington 42 OVER 58.5
Again, there are no marquee games this weekend, unless you want to factor in El Assico, which I do, and the pre-game lines are slim pickens. That said, stay alert, because there might be in game opportunities materialize, especially on the numbers.
Good luck however you play.
I hope Kentucky doesn't win another game this season.
But, that said, on to the next week, one of the worst "on paper" matchup weeks of the season FWIW. This COULD mean that we're in for a big dallop of chaos theory, or.....
The Week 3 FIVE:
1. Washington State (-9) vs. Houston [-340 & +280] {O/U 74}
This game is being played at NRG Stadium, so while it's not really a home game for Houston it is played in Houston. This helps the Coogs but probably does not detract from the Cougs as much as many people think. The home field advantage is pretty strong for Houston in the Tillman, not so much at NRG, where the overall size, and acoustics, make the crowd seem quieter. I like Wazzu here, but not enough to give them the nod. I think the play in this game is on the number.
Predication: Wazzu 52 Houston 40 OVER 74
2. Kansas State @ Mississippi State (-8) [+260 & -330] {O/U 52}
IF Bill Snyder was still the coach of K-State I'd give them a serious look, but this is now Chris Klieman's team and I'm not sure whether the shock of not being at North Dakota State has fully enveloped him or not. I think the Bulldogs are good, and have the potential to be very good. We're gong to see a little bit rather I'm correct on that assumption here.
Prediction: Kansas State 7 Mississippi State 24 MSU to COVER -8 (I also like the UNDER here but that's not a FIVE pick)
3. Georgia State @ Western Michigan (-8.5) [+260 & -330] {O/U 69.5}
One thing I like about funny week 1 results is that they can cause some weird line ripple effects that, while diminishing over time, don't really go away until the end of the season because the public can't quite get that huge upset fully out of their minds. I think this is the case here based on my analytics.
Prediction: Georgia State 10 Western Michigan 42 Western Michigan to cover -8.5
4. TCU (-2.5) @ Purdue [-145 +125] {O/U 51.5]
This is one of those games that you initially look at and say "pass" until you start forgetting all of your pre-conceived notions from the past on these two teams and just evaluate them in the moment. My numbers say the line is about right, but I'm looking at the total here. I think it's low.
Prediction: TCU 38 Purdue 42 OVER 51.5
5. Hawai'i @ Washington (-21.5) [+1000 & -2000] {O/U 58.5}
Another case where I hate the number, although there could be some Hawai'i value there, and focus instead on the number. Yes, Washington has a good defense but no one has fully stopped the Rainbow Warrior's Run N' Shoot yet. Love the Over here.
Prediction: Hawai'i 28 Washington 42 OVER 58.5
Again, there are no marquee games this weekend, unless you want to factor in El Assico, which I do, and the pre-game lines are slim pickens. That said, stay alert, because there might be in game opportunities materialize, especially on the numbers.
Good luck however you play.
Thursday, September 5, 2019
College Football: The Week 2 FIVE
"One is the loneliest number that I've ever seen"
1 and freaking 4, that's my record from week one. I had some good picks that went wrong (Oregon) some bad picks (Fresno State and Louisiana Tech) and one replacement that I wish I could have back (eff you FIU). Thank goodness for the Holy War.
But, this is a new week and we have a new parcel of selections that you should probably ignore.
So, without further ado.....
The Week 2 FIVE:
1. Rutgers @ Iowa (-20) [+950 & -1800] {O/U 49.5}
Crunching the numbers I think that Iowa is a much, much better team than Rutgers here. Especially at home. Yes, I know they struggled in week one but a LOT of teams struggle in week one. I expect Iowa to score early and often and to cover this number fairly easily.
Prediction: Rutgers 10 Iowa 45 (Iowa to COVER -20)
2. Army @ Michigan (-22) [+1000 & -2000] {O/U 47.5}
In a first for me I'm putting my beloved Wolverines in the FIVE, AND I'm picking against them. I was not impressed with what I saw last week against MTSU. Of course, Army wasn't that impressive either but I think the triple option is going to give Big Blue's defense fits. I think Michigan wins, but I think it takes many bourbons (on my part) before they get there.
Prediction: Army 21 Michigan 35 (Army to COVER +22)
3. Coastal Carolina @ Kansas (-7.5) [+250 & -300] {O/U 54.5}
I will admit to getting a little nervous when putting a game between two not very good teams in my FIVE, but I think this one is CLOSE, coming down to a FG at the end. Les Miles goes an ugly 2-0.
Prediction: Coastal Carolina 14 Kansas 17 (Coastal Carolina to COVER -7.5)
4. Eastern Michigan @ Kentucky (-15) [+500 & -700] {O/U 53.5}
Death, taxes and Eastern Michigan keeping it close. This team might not win a ton, but they're always in a dogfight, and there's evidence that Kentucky and most of the SEC East might be gawd-awful this year.
Prediction: Eastern Michigan 17 Kentucky 20 (EMU to COVER -15)
5. Arkansas State @ UNLV (-1.5) [+105 & -125] {O/U 62.5}
My numbers have Arkansas State as the better team, even taking into consideration the HFA of UNLV (which I rank as smaller than the average). In other games I'm calling for covers, in this game I'm calling the mild upset.
Prediction: Arkansas State 24 UNLV 20 (Arkansas State to WIN on the ML)
College football takes off Thursday to give the Stage to the NFL. OK, whatever, but they come back with a pretty solid game in Marshall at Boise State on Friday, before the ONE THAT EVERYONE IS WAITING FOR (OK, not everyone) when Texas aTm goes to face Clemson, IN Death Valley. Then there's the night cap LSU at Texas, and remember when Stanford at USC used to mean something? It's the battle of the backup QBs now.
As is usual you're going to find some gems sprinkled among the diamond games. The fun of college football is that they could be games where you least expect them.
Good luck this week, have fun watching the games.
1 and freaking 4, that's my record from week one. I had some good picks that went wrong (Oregon) some bad picks (Fresno State and Louisiana Tech) and one replacement that I wish I could have back (eff you FIU). Thank goodness for the Holy War.
But, this is a new week and we have a new parcel of selections that you should probably ignore.
So, without further ado.....
The Week 2 FIVE:
1. Rutgers @ Iowa (-20) [+950 & -1800] {O/U 49.5}
Crunching the numbers I think that Iowa is a much, much better team than Rutgers here. Especially at home. Yes, I know they struggled in week one but a LOT of teams struggle in week one. I expect Iowa to score early and often and to cover this number fairly easily.
Prediction: Rutgers 10 Iowa 45 (Iowa to COVER -20)
2. Army @ Michigan (-22) [+1000 & -2000] {O/U 47.5}
In a first for me I'm putting my beloved Wolverines in the FIVE, AND I'm picking against them. I was not impressed with what I saw last week against MTSU. Of course, Army wasn't that impressive either but I think the triple option is going to give Big Blue's defense fits. I think Michigan wins, but I think it takes many bourbons (on my part) before they get there.
Prediction: Army 21 Michigan 35 (Army to COVER +22)
3. Coastal Carolina @ Kansas (-7.5) [+250 & -300] {O/U 54.5}
I will admit to getting a little nervous when putting a game between two not very good teams in my FIVE, but I think this one is CLOSE, coming down to a FG at the end. Les Miles goes an ugly 2-0.
Prediction: Coastal Carolina 14 Kansas 17 (Coastal Carolina to COVER -7.5)
4. Eastern Michigan @ Kentucky (-15) [+500 & -700] {O/U 53.5}
Death, taxes and Eastern Michigan keeping it close. This team might not win a ton, but they're always in a dogfight, and there's evidence that Kentucky and most of the SEC East might be gawd-awful this year.
Prediction: Eastern Michigan 17 Kentucky 20 (EMU to COVER -15)
5. Arkansas State @ UNLV (-1.5) [+105 & -125] {O/U 62.5}
My numbers have Arkansas State as the better team, even taking into consideration the HFA of UNLV (which I rank as smaller than the average). In other games I'm calling for covers, in this game I'm calling the mild upset.
Prediction: Arkansas State 24 UNLV 20 (Arkansas State to WIN on the ML)
College football takes off Thursday to give the Stage to the NFL. OK, whatever, but they come back with a pretty solid game in Marshall at Boise State on Friday, before the ONE THAT EVERYONE IS WAITING FOR (OK, not everyone) when Texas aTm goes to face Clemson, IN Death Valley. Then there's the night cap LSU at Texas, and remember when Stanford at USC used to mean something? It's the battle of the backup QBs now.
As is usual you're going to find some gems sprinkled among the diamond games. The fun of college football is that they could be games where you least expect them.
Good luck this week, have fun watching the games.
Tuesday, September 3, 2019
One thought on the Texans mess.
For a long time now I've used the hashtag #Bad[Insert thing here] as a general comment on all things that are stupid, silly or just plain awful. A lot of my Twitter tagging of #BadSports content has been in relation to the Texans.
But I haven't used that in response to the trades that went down over the weekend because it just seems so obvious that we're dealing with a #BadSports situation here.
Two trades, both unbalanced in the favor of the other team. You got too little back for Clowney and gave up too much for Tunsil and Stills. What is the potential of TWO first round draft picks?
How about JJ Watt and DeAndre Hopkins?
OK, that's an extreme example but still, if there's one thing the Texans have done a pretty good job of as a franchise it's hitting on first round picks. It's the rest of the rounds in the draft where they've struggled, which is why their roster is a wreck outside of a few key stars.
Still, getting Tunsil on-board does, finally, provide Watson with some protection, but there are four other positions on that offensive line and it's not very clear that any of the people manning them is going to be all that great. Tunsil will help, and it's much needed help, but he really only makes the offense marginally better while on defense you've gotten significantly worse.
Remember the vaunted pass-rush that was supposed to help a woeful secondary? Yeah, that narrative pretty much got blown out of the water. JJ Watt is great, but no man is an island and he needs help, especially when you consider that now all of the double teams that Clowney absorbed are going to be redistributed to #99.
Who else on this defense is worthy of a double-team?
The line from the team is that they're worried about this year and that they'll worry about the dearth of draft picks after the season, a line that's been parroted by aging, increasingly less insightful, Houston Chronicle columnist John McClain.
You might really be worried about it when you're trying to find a new GM, who looks at your upcoming draft equity and says "Thanks, but no thanks"
Still, and this is the truth, if the Texans win this season, and make a decent run in the playoffs, all will probably be forgiven. One thing this does ensure is that Texans fans, who seem content on supporting one of the worst franchises in football, will be there in droves for the home opener, hearts full of love and minds full of optimism for the boys in deep steel blue (or whatever the heck they call their colors).
If they lose however, all bets are off.
But I haven't used that in response to the trades that went down over the weekend because it just seems so obvious that we're dealing with a #BadSports situation here.
Two trades, both unbalanced in the favor of the other team. You got too little back for Clowney and gave up too much for Tunsil and Stills. What is the potential of TWO first round draft picks?
How about JJ Watt and DeAndre Hopkins?
OK, that's an extreme example but still, if there's one thing the Texans have done a pretty good job of as a franchise it's hitting on first round picks. It's the rest of the rounds in the draft where they've struggled, which is why their roster is a wreck outside of a few key stars.
Still, getting Tunsil on-board does, finally, provide Watson with some protection, but there are four other positions on that offensive line and it's not very clear that any of the people manning them is going to be all that great. Tunsil will help, and it's much needed help, but he really only makes the offense marginally better while on defense you've gotten significantly worse.
Remember the vaunted pass-rush that was supposed to help a woeful secondary? Yeah, that narrative pretty much got blown out of the water. JJ Watt is great, but no man is an island and he needs help, especially when you consider that now all of the double teams that Clowney absorbed are going to be redistributed to #99.
Who else on this defense is worthy of a double-team?
The line from the team is that they're worried about this year and that they'll worry about the dearth of draft picks after the season, a line that's been parroted by aging, increasingly less insightful, Houston Chronicle columnist John McClain.
You might really be worried about it when you're trying to find a new GM, who looks at your upcoming draft equity and says "Thanks, but no thanks"
Still, and this is the truth, if the Texans win this season, and make a decent run in the playoffs, all will probably be forgiven. One thing this does ensure is that Texans fans, who seem content on supporting one of the worst franchises in football, will be there in droves for the home opener, hearts full of love and minds full of optimism for the boys in deep steel blue (or whatever the heck they call their colors).
If they lose however, all bets are off.
The Week One FIVE recap: Paaaiiin.
That was not the start we were looking for.
But, a start it was, a 1-4 start, which would have been 2-3 had I not gotten cold feet and scratched out Boise State, replacing it with FIU who I honestly thought would be better. Instead, I was on the wrong side of an ass-whuppin.
Still, it's a long season and the game is to have a positive ROI over the year, not just one week.
I started off strong in the Holy War, thought I had it nailed with Oregon, and then well...it just wasn't pretty.
Kudos to UT-Austin for being much better than I thought they would be, at least against La Tech, and to USC for actually looking competent. I seem to do this every year, weigh down my Week 1 FIVE with predictions of bold upsets, putting myself in a hole looking up. But, I've come back before and it only takes one good week to get right back on the beam.
Some interesting football and gaming notes this year:
Circa Sports Book has dedicated themselves to being the first poster on college football lines this year. In fact, they posted the week 2 lines on Sunday morning, and have already seen significant movement. Between them, South Point and the Superbook it's refreshing to see actual bookmaking still exists in Las Vegas. Post the lines, take the bets, move the lines accordingly. Love it and I know where all of my sports wagering dollars are going in the future.
Currently Michigan is sitting as a 23 point favorite over Army. I have NEVER listed Michigan in my FIVE, nor have I ever placed a live bet on them. That might change this week and it could be me placing a bet AGAINST my favorite team. I typically pull the lines for the FIVE on Wednesday, so we'll see how it moves.
I am not yet in football-watching season shape. Saturday night I petered out just after halftime of the USC/Fresno State game, marking the first Saturday in quite a while that I didn't stay up to watch the last game.
Finally, as a (soon to be former) U-Verse customer, I'm now in a world minus the Pac-12 Network, the ACC Network, and NFL Network. As a fan of football this is untenable and I'm probably going to be switching over to streaming before the season is out.
Next week is coming soon, good luck handicapping.
But, a start it was, a 1-4 start, which would have been 2-3 had I not gotten cold feet and scratched out Boise State, replacing it with FIU who I honestly thought would be better. Instead, I was on the wrong side of an ass-whuppin.
Still, it's a long season and the game is to have a positive ROI over the year, not just one week.
I started off strong in the Holy War, thought I had it nailed with Oregon, and then well...it just wasn't pretty.
Kudos to UT-Austin for being much better than I thought they would be, at least against La Tech, and to USC for actually looking competent. I seem to do this every year, weigh down my Week 1 FIVE with predictions of bold upsets, putting myself in a hole looking up. But, I've come back before and it only takes one good week to get right back on the beam.
Some interesting football and gaming notes this year:
Circa Sports Book has dedicated themselves to being the first poster on college football lines this year. In fact, they posted the week 2 lines on Sunday morning, and have already seen significant movement. Between them, South Point and the Superbook it's refreshing to see actual bookmaking still exists in Las Vegas. Post the lines, take the bets, move the lines accordingly. Love it and I know where all of my sports wagering dollars are going in the future.
Currently Michigan is sitting as a 23 point favorite over Army. I have NEVER listed Michigan in my FIVE, nor have I ever placed a live bet on them. That might change this week and it could be me placing a bet AGAINST my favorite team. I typically pull the lines for the FIVE on Wednesday, so we'll see how it moves.
I am not yet in football-watching season shape. Saturday night I petered out just after halftime of the USC/Fresno State game, marking the first Saturday in quite a while that I didn't stay up to watch the last game.
Finally, as a (soon to be former) U-Verse customer, I'm now in a world minus the Pac-12 Network, the ACC Network, and NFL Network. As a fan of football this is untenable and I'm probably going to be switching over to streaming before the season is out.
Next week is coming soon, good luck handicapping.
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