Las Vegas Labor Negotiations: It's all hanging on 1.3%

According to the Las Vegas Review-Journal (also known as "Sheldon's Rag") whether or not there will be a general labor strike in June is down to a 1.3% difference in pay increases.

Las Vegas Casinos, Union, negotiating pay raises for workers. Las Vegas Review-Journal

In a statement Wednesday, Culinary Local 226 and Bartenders Local 165 said they are seeking an average annual increase of 4 percent over the next five years in workers’ wages and benefits, such as health care and pensions.
...
The unions said MGM Resorts and Caesars are offering an average annual increase of about 2.7 percent. The two companies operate 18 of the resorts impacted by the talks, and their settlement with the union would set the standard for the remaining operators.

In the middle, the part that I omitted (go read the entire article) the newspaper chooses to make an issue of CEO compensation.  This is standard boilerplate for today's modern journalists (NARRATIVE!!!) and it's a really odd play for Sheldon to make.  What happens here will effect his negotiations later down the line after all.

It is a little bit telling that the union "expert" that the LVRJ quoted admitted that "4% was probably too high" without admitting that the casino's opening salvo of 2% was probably too low.  I would imagine this gets settled at 3% and all of the noise surrounding panic buttons and other issues fade away.

At the end of the day, it's ALWAYS about the money.

And there are no good actors here.  Don't kid yourself.

The unions want bigger increases to pad their slush-funds in order to appease those whose patronage is tied to investments made by the pension funds, while there is nothing sympathetic about casino management companies. They have not been acting as prudent operators of late choosing to throttle the customer in return for short term stock bumps.

While yesterday's news that McCarron (LAS) recorded it's busiest April on record might seem to indicate that customer's are bending over and asking "Please sir, may I have another" the fact is airport traffic does not mean that STRIP occupancy is increased.  We'll see those numbers soon.

Granted, after the horrific events of October 1st things are starting to return to some sense of normalcy, the rebound from the tragedy is masking deeper problems that should start to manifest themselves in the later quarters of this year, and into next year.

I've already written about why I think a strike would be devastating to Las Vegas and that's precisely the reason I don't think one will happen.  A LOT of what the union is doing here is saber-rattling, it's the only negotiation tool they have.  In a right to work state even breaking a picket line is not the death knell for one's career that it is in states with different labor laws.

And on one, really, wants a strike. I don't believe that the culinary union workers who voted to authorize one really thought one would happen. I don't think the union leaders want to see their cash reserves drained, and I know the casinos don't want to have their contingency plans put to the test.

My feeling is that a deal gets done today, probably in the wee hours. At least between CET, MGM and the union, which will lead to all of the other dominoes falling.

At that point, possibly, maybe someone will have the smarts to listen to Wolfgang Puck who seems to be one of the few people remembering that Las Vegas is in the customer service business.

Stanley Cup: Games 1 & 2 - Series ON.

For many observers your feelings regarding the NHL Stanley Cup Finals so far come down to whether or not you like Las Vegas Pre-Game show.

I will submit that if you're not a fan, you're getting sports wrong. Sports is ENTERTAINMENT and, as wonderfully cheesy as it is, the pre-game is about entertainment.

It's also not about you, it's about getting the crowd in the stadium amped up. And it does it's job.

After we get past that however, when the hockey starts, this series as really started off about two things.

Passing and Power.

In game One neither team played all that well, but the goals that were scored were done so through either deft passing, or mistakes made in the power game. Washington is certainly the more powerful team, but they have a propensity to royally screw things up at the most inopportune times.

Yes, Ovechkin is great.  But Tom Wilson is no more than a lobotomized gorilla on skates, TJ Oshie is supremely talented but has a two-cent head, and Smith-Pelley is a turnover or missed pass waiting to happen.

All of this and we haven't even discussed the officiating as of yet.

Without spending too much time on it, the officials have not shined.  Reaves' game-winning goal in the first game should not have been allowed, and Carlson's penalty in Game two (that gave the Knights a 5-3 that they failed to take advantage of) should have resulted in a penalty shot.

The thing is, the bad calls have, for the most part, evened out, which is why both team's fans are screaming about "conspiracy theories" and other such nonsense.

Open letter to Vegas fans:  Stop it. This is not a good look.

There is no conspiracy against the Knights. Just stop it.

The Knights won the first game because they took advantage of more Capitals errors than the Capitals took advantage of Knights errors.

The Capitals won game 2 because of the opposite, and the fact that Braden Holby had the game of his life.

Alex Tuch missed an open net chance that might haunt him for the rest of the series. Marchessault played a terrible game, Fleury is not acting like the Desert Flower right now.

However, there's good news for the Knights.

Vegas came into last night's game riding a 5 game win streak. And they played like a team that thought they couldn't lose.  It took outstanding performances by Ovechkin, Eller and an all-time game by Holtby to beat them.  Of those three only Ovechkin is likely to continue to perform at that level. The Great Eight is an all-time great player.

So, the series moves on to the Nation's Capital, Washington D.C., possibly the only city in America with a reputation worse than that of Las Vegas. A city full of bureaucrats, lobbyists, lawyers and politicians. A city that has fabricated a myth of long-suffering sports fandom. 

Las Vegas doesn't operate under that myth. It knows what it is and it should know just how lucky it is to be here.

The Golden Knights need to stop trying to out physical the Capitals and get back to their speed game. They need to start remembering that there is an off-side to the play and Fleury cannot stop everything.  You have to cover the back-side.

Most of all they need to remember this:  It took a lifetime best performance from an average goalie last night to finally beat them by a single goal.  The series now heads to the Capitals house, where they aren't exactly lighting it up.

Ironically, the ice in D.C. should better suit the Knight's game, they struggled on the slush (especially Marchessault, who seemingly forgot how to handle a puck) and their speed game should be better in D.C.

This loss should be a wake-up call.

If it's not then this team, as great as they've been, don't deserve to hoist Lord Stanley's Cup.

Vegas and Fees: Gutting the Golden Goose.

These days it seems that a lot of companies whose business is ostensibly customer service, have decided that bleeding their core business dry is a solid path forward.

I give you the "concession and franchise fee" or CNF in shorthand. These are insipid fees often added on at bars and restaurants, that add 4.7% to the price of the meal, or drinks, and offer the customer absolutely nothing in return.

In short, it's pure profit for the establishment owner above and beyond the prices listed on the menu.

Unlike the horrid resort fees, which can often cost more than the price of the room and provide customers with ridiculous "amenities" such as "free" wi-fi, local call (seriously?), access to the fitness center etc. CNF fees are charged and provide.....nothing.

Nor should these be confused with a "live entertainment fee" (sometimes called "tax" which is laughable) which often goes to the payment of the live entertainment in question, these fees provide absolutely no benefit to the customer, and should be viewed as a good reason to avoid the properties in question.

Which properties are these?  Per the linked article above (from Vegas news site VitalVegas.com) the following properties charge CNF fees of 4.7%

 - Cabo Wabo Cantina @ Planet Hollywood
 - Rhumbar @ Mirage
 - Hexx @ Paris
 - Beer Park @ Paris
 - Alexxa's Bar @ Paris
 - Chayo Mexican Kitchen & Tequila Bar @ Linq Promenade.

Do yourself, and your pocketbook a favor and refuse to patronize any of these establishments, or any other establishments in the future, who charge this fee. Failure to do so will result in this CNF fee becoming the equivalent of the resort fee, widely implemented and almost impossible to go without.

As I've stated in the past my belief is that these fees are not "fees" in the truest sense of the word, since they cannot be reasonably avoided, but should be reflected as increases to the menu price.  I feel the same about hotel resort fees, and many airline fees. These are listed separately as "fees" to allow the main prices to be unrealistically reduced, showing a price that the customer cannot reasonably expect to pay.

The important thing here is that customers, not the resorts and especially not government, have the power to change this by refusing to patronize establishments that charge this.  Not everyone will, of course, and many will pay the fee, despite it showing on their bill, without even realizing it's there. Unfortunately, most travelers don't do this so their taste of Vegas is bitter due to higher than expected bills.

True, there are some recent rumblings of customers complaining (a lot) and getting these CNF fees removed from their bills but most won't do that. Nor will they take simple steps like purchasing an Ethernet cable and $20 router to get free in-room wi-fi without having to pay the resort fee.

So, not everyone is going to stop patronizing these establishments but if enough people will then the message will be sent. Being angry and screaming and hollering through your keyboard online is not gong to cut it. Taking your money elsewhere will.

The city of Las Vegas has successfully reinvented itself 3 times over the years.  From railroad town to mob gambling town to corporate-owned gambling and entertainment mecca.  At the end of each of these iterations there was always a "dark decade" that preceded something new to come.  When the railroad strike occurred Vegas Floundered until the building of the Hoover Dam. When the Chicago Mob moved in Vegas floundered until the corporations set up shop.

We're now entering what I believe to be the last gasp of the current corporate model of operations in Vegas. While the mafia destroyed things with violence and crime the corporations are going to kill their golden goose through fees and stagnation.  Those of us who love Las Vegas are going to have to navigate some turbulent waters as the MBA wielding managers find ways to improve profits through more and more nickel and dime cuts to the customer instead of innovation.

When you're in the customer service business, intentionally hurting your number one revenue stream (through fees, tightened odds, increased prices, lower perks etc.) is the definition of business insanity/

On Video Poker Pay Tables, Variance, and the average player.

Bob Dancer is a video poker legend. He's also a bit of an elitist when it comes to the game.

His attitude toward video poker is that players should ONLY play games that have the best pay tables.  That said, his numbers are solid, his strategy sound and he's a good resource should you want to improve at the game.

However, his blind spot is that his advice is solely directed at the high-volume, professional player. Mr. Dancer has no use for the recreational player and is incapable of understanding their motivations.

This is not intended as criticism of the man, it's just fact. (Although I'm betting, if he ever reads this, he would take it as criticism but c'est la vie)

My point here is that there is always a LOT of emphasis placed on "pay tables" and whether or not it's advantageous for a player to search out the good ones.

For example. On the Las Vegas strip you'e most likely to find 7/5 DDB. (Double Double Bonus [the most popular game] where the Full House pays 7 coins (35 for a max bet) and the flush pays 5 coins (25 for the max bet).  This game carries an expected return of  95.7120 % over the long run. Whereas 8/5 DDB, where the Full House pays 8 coins (40 for a max bet) has an expected return of 96.7861 %  over the long run and 9/6 DDB (you get the picture) has an expected return of 98.9808 %.

These returns have been determined through solid mathematics, and have been proven through many long-run simulations.  One thing that players like about video poker is that the "house edge" is a known quantity, unlike with slots, whose hold percentages are the last great mystery in the casino.

Of course, Mr. Dancer would say that players should never play DDB, that the house edge is too high for a serious video poker player to consider.  Despite this DDB is the most popular game in the terminals by far.

But, for the average player, does it really matter?

My argument is no.

Why, because these expected returns are calculated in the long-run, over the life of the game. The average video poker player is not going to get anywhere near this level of play in their lifetime. Because of this I'm of the opinion that the pay tables don't really matter a hill of beans in determining profit for most.

What DOES matter is whether or not you get higher or lower than the standard deviation on premium hands. I'm defining premium hands to be any 4 of a kind, 4 of a kind with a "kicker" (On DDB you can use the 5th card to increase the payout, typically 4 Aces with/2,3 or 4 or 4 2s,3s,4s with any A,2,3,4 etc.  There are other variations (such as face cards) but let's stick with these).

So on a 5 coin bet a hand of 4 Aces would pay 800 credits but, if the fifth card is a 2,3, or 4 the payout increases to 2,000 credits. This is called "Aces with a kicker" or AWAK in shorthand.

And your profitability is going to be determined by whether or not you get more or less of your fair share of those, statistically.

On my last trip to Las Vegas I drew 38 4 of a kinds.  Of those 3 were AWAK (including 2 within 10 minutes of one another) 10 were "premium quads" (for example, 2s, 3s, or 4s with no kicker, which pay 400 credits rather than 250, 4 Aces with no kicker which we discussed above, or 4 2s,3s,4s, w/any A,2,3,4, also discussed above) I also got one straight (non royal) flush (250 credits) the rest were 'normal' 4OAKs (250 credits).  This was over 4 days playing.

If you're thinking that's an insane amount of 4OAKs you would be correct. I've been playing video poker almost exclusively for 4 years now (I've been playing poker for around 29 years of my life) and I've never had a trip where I've gotten that many.

Yes, I made a profit, despite playing 7/5 DDB on the Strip or 8/5 and 9/5 DDB downtown. Profitability wasn't determined by me getting an extra coin on the full house, it was gained by grabbing 4OAKs on the high end of the standard deviation.

Fast forward around a month and I visited Lake Charles, Louisiana.

There I played either 8/5 DDB or 9/5 DDB almost exclusively, only got 3 4OAK in 2 1/2 days and lost big.

Fast forward one more month and in a solid day of playing 9/5 DDB bartop at River Spirit in Tulsa, Oklahoma only saw 1 4OAK and I lost a good portion of my ass.  Despite River Spirit having the better pay table.

One other point.  If you search for the best 'return' game on the unit you're playing there's a very real chance you could get caught playing a game where you're weak on strategy.  In that case the 98.8980 % game you're playing might return closer to 93% (or worse) if your strategy isn't sound.

Long story short, there's a lot of information out there telling you to search out and only play the 'good' pay tables. If you're a high-volume, long-session player this is probably a good idea. But if you're the average video poker player who sits down and plays a short session a couple of times per year I'm not convinced that the variance in expected return is going to affect you much. It's far better to play a game with a slightly lower return on which you're confident of the strategy*.




























*This is separate from the argument of whether or not you should reward casinos that offer good pay tables. I think you should, but some times it doesn't work out that way.  I try to focus most of my gambling spend off-Strip because of this, and away from MGM, CET etc.  but quite often I'm staying at those properties so I play what is available to me.

A Culinary Union Strike Could Be Devastating to Las Vegas.

Yesterday 99% of culinary union members who voted, decided to vote 'yes' in favor of a potential strike.

I understand the reasoning behind this, in fact, I'm not unsympathetic to their claims. I agree that employees at casinos need stronger protections against workplace harassment and I'm on board with them wanting immigration protections as well. I also, somewhat, agree that the entire issue of technology has the potential to disrupt, if not transform, the labor force.

That said I hope it doesn't come to a strike.

And that's not just because I have a trip to Vegas planned in June.

Strikes in the customer service industry never have the intended effect. There are no winners. Customers, many of whom have planned Vegas excursions for a full year, are not going to want to hear excuses and reasoning from either the union or the resorts. What they're going to see are businesses that have no interest in providing them with the customer service that they advertised.

This is separate from whether or not their personal political preferences make them sympathetic to either the plight of the union or the side of the corporations.

Imagine planning a trip to a place all year. You get there, and there's no one to serve you a drink, no one to clean your room, no one to serve you food.  How would you feel?

To be honest, you'd be pissed. And don't give me your high-minded "I'd do OK because I support the unions" bullshit. If it's your vacation that's been disrupted you're going to be angry.

You're going to be angry at Las Vegas.   And you're going to be less likely to visit there in the future because of it.

Vegas is already taking a beating in the press and the forum of public opinion because of the casinos current plans to increase charges, fees and generally make things more of a pain without providing any additional benefits.  Attendance dropped for the last quarter for the first time in a few years.  Yes, the Las Vegas Visitors groups wrote it off as "shooting related" or "because of annual convention rotations" but the fact is less people are heading to Vegas because the value proposition is becoming less and less.

Besides a dizzying array of fees and upcharges that add nothing. there's also the sad fact that casino operators have decided to tighten the odds to a point that even the illusion of a chance is fading away. Of course, the casinos are still raking in money, because they're charging an avalanche of fees and putting price tags on things that used to be free, and are free in almost every other location. The Golden Nugget downtown is even charging for in-room coffee now.  I don't care who you are, that's ridiculous.

So, a person goes to Vegas, spends all of this money on resort fees, rooms (whose rates have increased as well) entertainment, 'entertainment charges' and what not and then they find out no one is there to serve them food or drinks, or provide room service.

What do you think their attitude toward Vegas is going to be going forward?

I've said before that, had I started visiting Vegas today, I would not fall in love with this Vegas. The Vegas that I'm infatuated with is long gone. The wife and I now have to go off-strip to find vestiges of the city we love. I can't imagine someone coming into town and finding the joy that we did in the face of corporate operation. I think that's, in large part, why you see Vegas entering another slump.

In the end a labor strike is nothing more than a lack of creativity on the part of both workers and management. The "technology" issue is evidence of that.  Casinos want to increase the use of technology to reduce staff and save costs, customer experience be damned. Workers want to wade into the pool and raise their hands and yell "STOP", as did King Canute to the rising tide,  when it comes to technology but it doesn't have to be that way.

How about if both sides consider a "retrain and retain" method of dealing with technology which allows casinos to implement technology in a manner that cuts costs and improves the customer experience while retraining staff to fill roles that also improve the customer experience?

And that's the biggest thing missing from all of these talks, any concern for the most important entity to both party, the people who are paying the money which allow for strong corporate profits and a strong employment market: The customer.

Once both sides lose track of that then a strike becomes possible. Once that happens Las Vegas could be facing a day where there are too few customers to continue the status quo.

It's possible the city is already heading that way and doesn't know it yet.  They might if this strike takes place.

RIP: Old Ironsides. (My personal laptop is done)

I knew there was an issue when my now six year old laptop opened up and showed a black screen.  No back-screen of Vegas that I had loaded, no whirring of the hard drive, just black with a white arrow for the mouse pointer that moved when I touched the track pad, but which had nothing to click on.

This was the last of my "big laptop" computers that I purchased back in the day with heavy word processing and spreadsheet use in mind. Back when I was crunching numbers and words for political writing.  It also wasn't cheap, just North of $1,300 when purchased.

It finally did boot up which allowed me to image the hard drive to my back-up drive but as a functional piece of electronics it's all but dead.

Time to move to something new, and something much smaller and much, much more portable.

I'm thinking about this. The HP 15t Touch

First, it's much smaller and much, much lighter than my old system. It's got a 1T hard drive which is important because I plan to download movies onto it for flights, and it's gotten good reviews from all but the Mac-Centric sites out there (for whom I ignore anyway when it comes to PC's) and it's economic to boot. ($349 on sale right now at various outlets)

The downside?

Sounds as if the display is not that great, nor is the touchscreen, two things that are pretty low on my 'must have' list. (although a good display is pretty high up on my "nice to have" list).  And, as with any HP, it comes LOADED with bloat-wear out of the box which is going to mean the initial set-up could take a day or more as I strip the thing bare.

All-in-all however I think this might be a short decision making process for me.  My computing needs have changed over the years from working in rather large external files to mostly online. I'm not a PC gamer (or any kind of gamer for that matter) so I can't justify spending a LOT of extra money for something that's going to make Link look just a little better and less twitchy.  And these days computer tech is moving so rapidly that making a huge investment for something that's going to be obsolete in two years max just seems like so much wasted money.

I'm willing to listen if someone thinks up a better option for around the same amount of cash but, for now, I'm heavily leaning toward the HP.  The wife's computer is an HP running Windows 10 and it's working pretty good for her.

Thoughts are welcome.

Suffering: The Definition of Sports Insanity.

As a sports fan, endless suffering is often viewed as some weird rite of passage that all most go through prior to experiencing any joy.

"Abandon hope, all who enter here"

But, does it have to be this way?  Is it necessary to have your heart ripped out and shown to you on several occasions before your team finally climbs the mountain to a championship? Does there NEED to be so much pain and sorrow to make a win enjoyable?

The Vegas Golden Knights would say no.  And so would I.

Don't get me wrong.  Suffering can make for some great stories.  The Boston Red Sox, the Chicago Cubs, the cities of Cleveland and Buffalo.  After long periods of drought making it to the championship oasis can seem like the commutation of sports death. There's a certain catharsis that comes from being in the doldrums and then finding your way out of the desert of loss.

But, in many ways, continuing to spend money in support of shoddy franchises is more of a cop-out than it is a virtue. You support your teams despite the fact that they give you no reason to do so. That they have a stingy ownership group, or incompetent leadership. You support these teams because (the worst of all reasons) they're "from where you're from".

Don't mistake this, I'm not suggesting hopping around from team to team looking for a winner every year. Bandwagoning in other words.  The New England Patriots have a lock on those fans. People in cities such as Houston proudly sporting Patriots jerseys with "Brady" on the back not knowing who in the world Steve Grogan even is, or that he played for the team.

In Houston we have three top-league sports franchises, the Astros, the Rockets and the Texans.

The Astros are defending World Series Champions and have started off the current season pretty well. The Rockets are in the Western Conference Finals in the NBA (although it does appear that they won't be able to beat the Golden State Warriors).  The Texans are coming off a 4-12 season, have never made it past the 2nd round of the playoffs and are, by all accounts, the worst-ran franchise in the city.  Guess which team has the biggest fan support?

This for a team that's played 16 seasons and only had a winning record in six of them. A team that has an owner with no apparent desire to win, who is content consistently selling out NRG Stadium, pocketing his money and saying the occasional stupid thing.  A team that gives fans no compelling reason to root for them outside of "Well, they're the local team".

Or consider the Cleveland Browns. A revived franchise for 19 seasons now who only have two winning seasons during that time, a woeful ownership group, horrible front office and absolutely no reason to make you believe that they're going to turn it around Draft Day style.

Then you have the Vegas Golden Knights. An expansion team that was brilliantly put together by a smart GM hired by an owner who let him select the right coach, and put the right players around him. All they've done is reach the Stanley Cup Final in their first year.

Which of these three teams then is 'worthy' of support?  I would argue it's the team that's doing whatever it can to win, not the teams that are happy being moribund with strong fan support.

The fact is continuing to financially support a bad team expecting differing results is the very definition of sports insanity.  Suggesting that suffering is a prerequisite to winning is just a salve to your supporting a sub-par team.

Yes, you should remain a fan.

No, you should not reward them with your money.

No, you should not try and belittle the fans of the teams that are doing well.

At it's heart this anger toward Vegas and their fans is really just guilt reflected outward. You KNOW in your heart of hearts that the current path your team is on is crap but you won't accept it. It's much easier to point the finger at teams that are doing well and moan about "preferential treatment" or "rigged draft rules" ignoring the fact that many teams did stupid things to allow the Golden Knights to build the team they have (Hi Florida!).

So no. You don't have to suffer to enjoy a win. The fact that we've been conditioned to believe that we do is the lifeblood of bad franchises across the country. Bad owners rely on fans being blindly loyal, to not questioning, to having a local media who are going to do their level best to carry the water for failure.  If you question this the response is "well you just don't know".

Yes, you do know. The results are right in front of you. Records don't lie.

I'm not suggesting that all of you run out and support the Golden Knights or jump on board the Patriots train. You should continue to root for your team, through thick and thin. But that doesn't mean that you have to continue to blindly throw money at them either. Or spend much of a sports day watching them get drilled again by some wide margin, or buying into the excuses for failure.

It also doesn't mean that you should punish the fans of a team who gets it right.

That's just not a good look y'all.  Stop it.

Demand more from your teams before you support them with you time and money.  Absent a promotion/relegation system it's the only thing that will grab the attention of owners.

The Las Vegas Golden Knights: Yes, it is amazing.

I love playoff hockey.

As I sat on my couch yesterday watching Game 5 of the NHL Western Conference Finals my hands were shaking, my blood pressure was elevated. In short, I was a nervous wreck.

I was a wreck because this new team, this band of (Golden) misfits have wormed their way into my heart. I'm a fan, dismissing my Detroit Red Wings fandom for this new upstart, this team that shouldn't exist.

I have no physical connection to Detroit, I just liked the team growing up. The Red Wings are responsible for many of my memories when it comes to NHL hockey. The 1997-1998 back-to-back Stanley Cup champions were a great team, I loved them having rooted for them since the early eighties when I was just becoming a sports fan.

But a lot of my fandom is like that.

In college, I went to a school that doesn't have intercollegiate athletics. So I'm a sports free agent so to speak. My first college football memory is Bo Schembechler pacing the sidelines, of big offensive linemen wearing helmets with wings bowling over the other teams defense and big, bruising running backs chewing up yards.

Yes, I am a Michigan fan.  I dabbled locally, tried to become a fan of the UH Cougars, but my heart wasn't fully in it. I never went there but I bleed Maize and Blue. Oddly, I don't 'hate' Ohio State (mostly). I married a Buckeye so I'm OK with them. Yes, I want to beat them at everything, and they have some of the rudest fans I've ever met, but when it comes to pure sports 'hate' I'm firmly in the anti-Sparty column. There is nothing about Michigan State that I like at all. They have zero redeeming qualities and it's wins over them that I covet more than anything.

In pro sports it's a different animal.  I've always been a Houston Astros fan first and foremost. They are my #1 team in all sports. Last year was almost a religious experience for me. Outside of that however the local teams don't really move the needle for me.

I pull for the Houston Rockets, but NBA basketball is not all that interesting to me. I find the off-season to be far more interesting than anything they put on the court. It was cool back in the 90's when the Rockets won, but not life-changing.

I was good with the Oilers, and like every other Houstonian I was depressed when they went away, but I've never bought into the replacements, the Houston Texans. I could care less if Bob McNair's prayer circle wins or loses.  When it comes to the NFL I am now, and will always be, a 49ers fan.

Again, I have no connection to the city, I've never even been there. But growing up all it took was Ronnie Lott, Roger Craig, Jerry Rice, Joe Montana and the rest of the team to hook me for life.

And then we get to Vegas.

Unlike the other teams I DO have a connection to Vegas. The wife and I visit the city 3-4 times per year and it's become like our second home.  It's not even the casinos or the tourist areas, but the local gems that we've come to love.  Would that I could find employment there I'd make the jump in a heartbeat.  I don't like what's happened recently to Houston, I'm ready to let it go.

So Vegas got a team and we went all in. Granted, just as almost everyone else, prior to the season starting I thought they would be lucky to win 20 games. They were an expansion team, I was ready to suffer through several seasons of possibly competitive, but ultimately losing hockey.

Then game the draft.  And, unlike others, I was kind of stoked by the team they crafted.  Of course I LOVED Mark-Andre Fleury, I thought he gave them instant credibility in the goal.  I like the pick-up of James Neal, I thought they had some interesting options at Forward with Marchessault, Karlsson and Riley Smith, I really like the pickup of Nate Schmidt, and Derek Engelland as well.  All in all I thought this team might not be all that bad.

I could have never imagined this.

After the tragedy of October 1st the wife and I sat and watched not only the first game against Dallas, but the first home game, the one that was so well done in memory of the victims.  We continued to watch, and cheer, and (most often, living in Houston) follow the team online.

And they continued to win.  And win some more.  Even with Fleury and Malcom Subban and Maxime Legacy getting injured for a brief period of time this team won.  Suddenly they were in first place in the Pacific division and showed now signs of slowing. 

They got healthy, finally got Fleury back and we watched from afar as T-Mobile became the Fortress in more than just name only.  We FINALLY got to attend a game in February, bought a ton of Vegas Knight's gear and it's been all systems go since then.

Like much of Vegas we've fallen in love with this rag-tag band of misfits, cast-offs, a team that shouldn't even be here, but somehow is.

We've become Golden Knights fans over the course of the year, and it's been glorious.


GO KNIGHTS GO!!!!!!!!!

2018 Preakness: Justify (but barely)

In the end it wasn't the dominating tour de force that many expected.  Good Magic, and jockey Jose Ortiz, pushed Justify around the track, and then the latter held off a hard-charging Bravazo to take down the 2nd jewel of the Triple Crown on a muddy, rainy, foggy day at Pimilo Downs.

Sure, it's enough to guarantee that the Belmont will matter because, and let's be honest here, the third jewel ONLY matters if a single horse takes down the first two. But it wasn't dominating enough to scare anyone away, and it might have given other trainers a peek at how to beat the big chestnut colt that's catching the Nation's attention.

Justify will run to the front, no matter how ridiculous the pace may be.  And I'm betting other trainers are taking notice of that.  It wouldn't surprise me all that much to see a very fast miler stuck into the field by a trainer who also has a deep closer. The Belmont is a wrench of a race, 1 1/2 miles, a distance these horses have never gone before, and will probably never go again.

Can you force Justify to blow it out in the first mile, and hope to sweep up the pieces in the end?  It's possible.  That's what Sham was hoping to do against Secretariat, of course, well all know how that ended....

As it was with the first two jewels of the Triple Crown your answer to the Belmont is going to boil down to one question:  Do you believe in Justify?

For the first two legs my answer was a resounding "yes", and I put my money where my mouth was. Sadly, I missed the Superfecta by one horse (dang you Tenfold) so profits were negligible (and, because of the speed bias of the track the rest of my betting card was an unmitigated disaster) but it's always nice to pick the winner.

I'll be trying to do the same in the Belmont.

There will be no value in Justify, the dumb money that pours in will all but ensure that he goes off somewhere around 1/5 or (more likely) 1/9 so it's all going to come down to the exotics, OR picking the horse that snatches the Triple Crown away from Smith, Baffert and the hundreds of people who seemingly have an ownership stake.

It's always wise to find a horse that's won on this track before.

Local trainers seem to pull upsets as well.

But for now we're going to congratulate Justify and his connections on a race well ran, another win and another step towards greatness.

Some people are saying that the Triple Crown is suddenly too 'easy' as if we didn't go over 30 years without a winner.  But Justify hasn't won the thing yet, and I've got a feeling we're just about to see just how difficult winning the damn thing really is.

2018 Black Eyed Susan Picks and analysis

Odd field in the Fillies main race today but here are my thoughts and picks, as well as my picks for the remaining races today...

1. Tell Your Mama (20/1)

2. Midnight Disguise (4/1) (Scratched)

3. Coach Rocks (7/2)

4. Red Ruby (5/1)

5. Mihrab (30/1)

6. C.S. Incharge (15/1)

7. Goodonehoney (5/1)

8. Indy Union (10/1)

9. Sara Street (4/1)

10. Stakes On A Plane (20/1)

Most of the analysis that I've seen has this coming down to either Sara Street, or Midnight Disguise with Coach Rocks possibly upsetting the apple cart.

I'm leaning toward a $10 win bet on the 9 but using the 4, Red Ruby in a $5 Exacta Box with the same. I'm going to bet a $1 Tri Box with 4-7-8-9 to try and sweep up the minor placings. Even though she's lightly raced the 7 Goodonehoney has won both of her starts by a combined 11 3/4 lengths so I don't think you can leaver her totally out of your exotics. I'm leaving Coach Rocks out however, thinking that the morning line (slight) favorite here is only getting a bump because she raced in the KY Oaks. The problem is she finished seventh in that race and really didn't have any trip issues to complain about, she was just outran. She won the Gulfstream Oaks in a TOUGH race and I'm wondering just how much that took out of her. If she beats me, she beats me. I'm OK with that.

Here are my thoughts on the remaining races today (at the time I post this, I'm sitting out race 8 because my top two choices scratched out.)

Race 9: 3 - Rated R Superstar. - Won its last race at a slightly shorter distance but appears to be a horse on the come. I also like the 1- Irish War Cry but he's let me down a LOT in the past. Still, I'll probably put $5 bucks on him to win as a long shot play because he was my horse his 3yo season.

Race 10: 5 - Vici - Admittedly a bit of a reach here as this horse is stepping up in class but is a gutty performer who has only finished off the board twice in the last two years. And I LOVE the pickup of jockey Jose Ortiz here.

Race 11: The Black-Eyed Susan (see above)

Race 12: No Bet. Again, so many scratches (including my favorite) and I'm unenthused about what remains.

Race 13: 1. Furiously Kissed - This is a hard race to handicap as the field consists of a LOT of horses who have a habit of finishing 2nd or 3rd against stakes level company. Despite the long price (14-1) I think Furiously Kissed has the best competition in her rearview mirror and I have a habit of jumping on Javier Castellano mounts at anything over 10-1.

Races 14-18: No bets. There are eighteen(!!!) races on today's card. Good luck to you if you're betting all of them but the last five are those weird optional claiming races that seem to be almost impossible to handicap. Also, it's a sloppy track and their are a ton of scratches in some. I'll bet my 7 above and enjoy the last part of the card while grilling tonight in advance of the Vegas Golden Knights game.

Good luck however you bet.

2018 Preakness Stakes: Justify and the rest?

It's time for the 2nd Jewel of the Triple Crown and we're only talking about eight horses this time and not 20. (Thank Goodness)

Justifiably, Justify will be the hyped horse after his impressive win in the slop at Churchill. It's supposed to be rainy again at Pimlico so many of the same handicapping plays work here as well.

Handicapping this race comes down to whether or not you're a believer in the big colt or no.

Here's the field with post positions, morning line odds, jockeys, and my thoughts on the field.

1 Quip 12-1 F. Giroux  - Qualified for the KY Derby via his Tampa Bay Derby win, but his connections decided to wait for the Preakness which they feel is a better fit for him.

2 Lone Sailor 15-1 I. Ortiz - Finished eighth in the KY Derby, wasn't really a factor but didn't run poorly.  Would need to improve massively to compete here

3 Sporting Chance 30-1 L. Contreras - Finished 4th in the Pat Day Mile. Speed horse from D. Wayne Lukas who might be looking to set a hot pace for Bravazo to try and sweep up.

4 Diamond King 30-1 J. Castellano - Winner of the Federico Tesio Stakes, the Preakness prep race for local horses in Maryland

5 Good Magic 3-1  J. Ortiz  -  Ran second in the KY Derby losing to Justify by 2 1/2 weeks. Unusual move for trainer Chad Brown to make the Derby/Preakness turnaround so he might bear taking a close look at.

 

6 Tenfold 20-1 V. Espinoza - Didn't qualify for the Derby on points and ran poorly against Grade 1 competition. Will need to improve mightily to figure in the top placings.

7 Justify 1-2 M. Smith - KY Derby winner. Same story in the Preakness as the Derby, you either believe in Justify, or you don't. I do.  He will be my key horse.

8 Bravazo 20-1 L. Saez - Ran a respectable 5th in the KY Derby.  A purse closer which is why I think the entrance of Sporting Chance by trainer D. Wayne Lukas (who also trains Bravazo) is notable

Good luck however you bet this race.

Stop Trying to Become Gambling "Experts" Local Media.

Because you're not.

Gambling Point Spreads for Every 2018 Texans Game. Matt Young. Chron.com

"Las Vegas has a positive view of the Texans overall. The Texans are underdogs in just four games all season, which would put them in strong contention to bounce back and win the AFC South."

Let's talk about point spreads for a minute, and what they really mean.

When "Vegas" (or, more accurately, the offshore books) create point spreads they are NOT saying which team they believe is going to win the game. This is the most common misconception in sports betting and it's also one of the most mis-reported "facts" among non-gambling sports reporters.

What "Vegas" is really doing is figuring out where they need to establish a number in order to get the action to fall as close to 50/50 as possible on either side of the ledger.  Because the sports books always understand that they have the vigorish on their side. IF they can get the line correct they'll make money both on losing bettors, and on the Vig coming back to them when they pay out less than true odds.

So, what these lines REALLY mean is not that "Vegas" is bullish on the Texans but that they believe the public will be and are setting things up accordingly.  IF the Texans continue to come in as favorites as the games get closer, and too much money is bet either way, these lines will change in an attempt to balance out the betting.

Vegas, unlike local media, are agnostic regarding who wins and loses each individual game (the lone exception to this being the Golden Knights right now) what they really want is to not have too much exposure to the "wrong side".

Once you understand this fact you'll understand lines all the more.

Don't Blame Golden State (or Kevin Durant) for The Warriors being unbeatable.

Blame the rest of the NBA.

Last night Houston Rockets fans (self included) received a tough, bitter dose of reality.


They're nowhere near as good as the Golden State Warriors.


Neither is anyone else in the NBA.  The easy road is to lay the blame on Superstar, and all-around bad guy, Kevin Durant but that's not really fair.  Durant did what any player should do, go to the team that was offering him a crap-ton of money where he had the best chance to win a title.  Golden State did what any team should do, build a roster that gives them the best chance to win.

The fault for Golden State's dominance lies with the rest of the NBA, who haven't been able to negotiate the maze of the salary cap nearly as well.

Yes, outside of Stephan Curry the Warriors are an utterly unlikable collection of players (unless you're a Golden State fan).  Draymond Green is a jerk, Kevin Durant is utterly unlikable, but every team in the NBA has players like that.  Hell, every team in professional sports has players who are the same.

As a 49ers fan I lived through the Terrell Owens days. Yes he was a prick but he was OUR prick. It's the same for Golden State fans. The rest of the NBA fans might not like their players, but it doesn't really matter because the home fans do and they're winning.

James Harden is a flopper, but he's HOUSTON's flopper.

Russell Westbrook is a Prima Donna, but he's OKLAHOMA CITY's Prima Donna.

And so on and so on.

(Of note: This doesn't mean that these players are necessarily bad PEOPLE, I'm referring to their image ON THE COURT. I don't know them in person and neither do you, they might be kind, caring sweethearts of human beings for all we know)

The biggest problem that the NBA has right now is that they are extremely top heavy.  There is a ton of individual talent but few real TEAMS, let alone teams that can compete with the best of the bunch, the Golden State Warriors.

This was on display last night as Golden State moved the ball around with quick passing, excellent ball movement and, when need be, a great individual performance by Durant. Compare that with Houston's isolation dribble, dribble drive or shoot offense based primarily around Harden and the issue becomes very clear.

And it's not Golden State's fault.  Just like it wasn't UConn's fault they dominated women's basketball, or UCLA's fault back during the Wooden era.

In the words of the great Ric Flair: "To be the man, you gotta beat the man."

Increasingly it feels that no one in the NBA is going to be able to do that.


Bring on the off-season. (It's more fun anyway)

Louisiana Rejects Sports Betting Bill

Given the state and nature of Louisiana politics, I'm not surprised.

Louisiana lawmakers reject bill to authorize sports betting. WWLTV.com

For a state that has horse racing and full casino gambling the "expansion of gambling" argument rings a bit hollow.  More likely the financial structure of the bill wasn't to the liking of the legislators in a State that's governed more poorly than Texas. (Who would have thought that was possible?)

As it is I think something will eventually be passed, once sufficient money is placed in the politician's troughs.

Will Texans Be Able To Bet on Sports in Texas Now?

In a word.  No.

Odds Still Against Expanding Gambling in Texas. Houston Chronicle

In gambling terms, I'd put set the opening line as follows:

No change in Texas Gaming Laws:  -15000
A change in Texas Gaming Laws:  +17000

In short, it's not going to happen.

Nor, under this candidate's framework, do I think it should:

(from the article linked above)

"My first priority is looking out for everyday Texans to make sure they have the good government they deserve," Valdez said. 

"I believe decisions about whether or not to have gambling in our communities should be left up to Texans. This could include lifting the state ban on sports betting and helping find ways for local communities to decide their own laws and policies. Any revenue from gambling in Texas should go towards education and public services that help working Texans and not as a way to pay for handouts to big corporations." (Bolded emphasis mine)

That sounds an awful lot like State ran gaming to me (think the lottery, but with betting terminals) and that is a decisive nightmare.  Nor do I think that Texas absolutely has to loosen the shackles on gaming at all.  For one thing, I'm pretty sure the collection of low-functioning idiots that we have representing us in Texas would a) get it wrong and b) screw up the enforcement mechanism for compliance so badly that we'd have another TABC on our hands.

I know, I know, I write a gambling (centric) blog so why am I not all-in on Texas gaming?  Isn't that hypocritical?  Not really.

You see, I USED to think that Texas should open up the gates and bring Texas into the 21st century when it comes to vices.  This was back in the days when I was politically active, voted and all of the other stuff that makes one a "good citizen".

After years of dealing with the government, and meeting government officials I have zero faith in any politician from the Lone Star State to "get it right" so to speak.  I'm especially against Ms. Valdez' plan which removes the profit principle from gaming and would ensure a pretty crappy end-product.

IF I was to get behind any proposal it would be to allow on-line wagering on horses and sports only. No casino gaming period, although I might be open to allowing slot machines at race tracks because there is already gaming that occurs there.

But I doubt we're going to get that because, predictions of a blue wave notwithstanding, I think the November election cycle is going to be another river of woe for Texas Democrats, despite the hopeful writings of a certain Houston Chronicle political columnist who fancies herself conservative (when it suits her).

As long as Republicans pull the levers of power in Texas in-State gaming expansion is going to be a non-starter. Given that the State Government at all levels has lost the ability to function I'm pretty sure this is a good thing.

Although I've a feeling you could make some good money this year fading the Texans, you'll probably have to (eventually) drive to either Louisiana or Oklahoma to do it.

Down Goes PASPA! Down Goes PASPA!!

Supreme Court Allows Sports Betting Across the Country. NBCNews

In typical MSM form, the headline is not entirely accurate.

What the SCOTUS did here (In a 6-3 vote) was declare that the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act of 1992 to be unconstitutional because it effectively placed State Legislatures under Federal Control on the issue of Sports Betting. This was determined to be a violation of the 10th Amendment and is therefore no longer in effect.

What this means is that State Legislatures, rather than the Federal Congress, will now be responsible for legalizing, or otherwise setting rules pertaining to wagering on sporting events.

New Jersey, who filed the lawsuit under the administration of then-Governor Chris Christie, will be the first to roll this out. The state has already passed enabling legislation and many casinos already have the technology in place. Other States with casino gambling already legalized are sure to follow.

If, like me, you live in a backward state, such as Texas, you're likely to see little change from this. As any type of betting on sports is likely to remain illegal in a State that can't even authorize on-line  horse wagering in a Country that has a very advanced, fairly regulated system for doing so.

But, if you want to make a bet on your Texans or Cowboys the odds are that fairly soon you'll be able to drive over to either Louisiana or Oklahoma and do so.

Kentucky Derby 2018: Hype, Justified

In the end, Justify was, in fact, that good. Yes, the race was slow (2:04.9 making it the slowest race of the last 20 years) but the early fractions were ridiculous and when every horse faded away, the big brown colt seemingly got stronger.

In the end the race probably wasn't as close at the 2 1/2 length final margin of victory suggested. It all seemed so easy for this linebacker of a horse.

But let's not gift him the Triple Crown just yet.  While it's true the Preakness is not shaping up to offer much competition there's still the uncomfortable fact that this is a two-week turnaround, something the horse has never done. By all accounts he looked and acted great after the race but let's see what happens.

Then there's the Belmont, which figures to have several horses running that are rested from the Derby against a horse that will have raced in the interim. IF Justify is as good as many (including me) think he can be then he'll rise above.  But winning the Triple Crown is HARD. And it's typically only done by really great horses.

Personally, on the betting front, my $20 win wager on Justify salvaged a pretty bad betting day.  A day where I was agonizingly close on many bets, but ultimately came up short.  I missed the Derby Superfecta due to Instilled Regard's out-of-nowhere 4th place ride (on another note, Drayden Van Dyke is going to be the top jockey in America in 5 or 6 years) and despite having Funny Duck and Justify in my pick 4, the winners of the other two races were on my 'first horse out' list because one must have a budget and you can't pick them all.

I also hit on one of the earlier stakes races, and the night before at Sam Houston I hit on a 14-1 shot live there betting him across the board.

I also hit the Oaks/Derby Double ($16.60) although I missed on the "chalk" Exacta in the Oaks and missed elsewhere.

All in all, with $100ish wagered I'm getting back about.....$100ish.

Sadly the Preakness will probably feature Justify as a 1/9 favorite, and you're unlikely to get much higher on Monomoy Girl if she runs in the Black Eyed Susan.

This means that the Preakness is going to be all about the exotics.  I'll delve into how I'm planning to make a little bit of money on that later.  Yes, I'll be keying on Justify.

Congrats also to The lady who turned $18 into $1.2 Million betting the Derby Day Pick 5 from Austin's Retama Park.

Well done.

Kentucky Derby 2018: Notes on the Runners and Wagers

Now that we have post draws, morning line odds and a chance to do some proper handicapping here are my thoughts on the 2018 Derby Contenders....

1. Firenze Fire (50-1): Had a much better 2 yo season than he has as a 3yo but has never won a race over a mile in distance and has lost his last three, the last two by an average of 10 lengths. Throw in the dreaded on hole and Firenze Fire should be a non-factor in this race. Later in his career I'll show great interest if his connections decide that he could be a champion miler.

2. Free Drop Billy (30-1): Hasn't run horribly in his last three races but hasn't exactly set the world on fire either.  With only two wins in his career and low speed figures in all his races (compared to the rest of the field) I just don't see him being able to overcome this inside post. Will need to improve.

3. Promises Fulfilled (30-1): Looked good in the Fountain of Youth and then horrible in the Florida Derby.  Has a Beyer of 104 in the FoY which is comparable to the best horses in this race but it's unclear whether or not he's a true Grade 1 racer.  Will need to improve mightily to win here, but might sneak into the minor placings IF he gets a good trip.

4. Flameaway (30-1): One of the more intriguing horses in this race in that he's raced the tough horses close, and beaten some of them as well.  Certainly needs to improve here and might not be helped by all of the speed in this race.  Might be a decent long shot play however. Might have a future career as a sprinter.

5. Audible (8-1): Easily trainer Todd Pletcher's best chance to win the Derby and he's on a 4 race win streak, and he's gotten better every race.  Justify is the M/L favorite but methinks Audible will leave as the post-time favorite and it's easy to see why.  Whether you like him or not, and I do, you have to use him in your exotics and you might not want to be left out in case he is the best horse in this field.

6. Good Magic (12-1): They say that every horse has one great race in them and I think Good Magic's race was the Breeder's Cup Juvenile last November.  He hasn't come close to replicating that speed sense and appears to be a really good, but not great horse who could find himself surrounded by two great horses in this race.

7. Justify (3-1): This undefeated son of Scat Daddy is trying to undo the 136 year-old Curse of Apollo. He MIGHT have the chops to do it but I'd pump the brakes on the American Pharoah comparisons just yet.  Still, he's done nothing wrong in his three races to date and I thought his Santa Anita Derby run was more impressive than many of the pundits on TV. He keeps getting better and batter and if he betters what he's done in the past on Saturday look out.

8. Lone Sailor (50-1): There are always horses that qualify for the Derby who come from small barns, trainers and for whom just getting their is an accomplishment. On Paper Lone Sailor is that. But he does have some closing speed and he has run close to some of the horses in this race so you never know.  Would be a stretch though.

9. Hofburg (20-1): Lightly raced, steadily improving in every race and although Audible beat him handily in the Florida Derby if he continues to improve (a la Justify) he could make for an interesting entry. Rumored to be the "sharp horse" who typically gets over bet and then disappoints in the Derby as the "experts" try and get too cute with is.  Will use him in my exotics, and won't leave him out of my Pick 4.

10. My Boy Jack (30-1): He's a pure closer, and I have an aversion to betting closers in the Derby.  The reason for this is because the size of the field almost ensures that horses in the back will have traffic/trip issues.  That said, I think he's got the best finishing kick in the race so I'll probably feature him in my Derby Superfecta in hopes of getting a price in there.

11. Blot d'Oro (8-1): In my opinion Bolt is the most overrated horse in this fied.  He's had good speed figures but he's showing a worrying tendency to cross the line 2nd in bigger races.  He was given the win in the San Felipe when McKinzie was DQ's for a late outside bump in the stretch but I always thought McKinzie was the better horse in that race.  He'll be in my exotics for sure, but I won't be placing anything on him to win.  Depending on his off odds a show bet might be in the offering however.

12. Enticed (30-1): Yet another horse in the Derby that I think is going to be wasted at a mile and a quarter. His best race was the Gr III Gotham at a mile, which is where I think his best days forward might be. I would love to see Enticed and Firenze Fire meet up at either the Met Mile or the Breeder's Cup Mile later this year.

13. Bravazo (50-1): Who knows what happened to Bravazo in the Louisiana Derby but he laid an egg. I just don't think he has the speed to keep up with the other horses in the field, and he doesn't has the late kick he needs to make up the ground.  When he won the Risen Star, it was the fastest he ever ran and he didn't have to make up any ground.  That won't happen in the Derby.

14. Mendelssohn (5-1): Yes, he's come a LONG way to run in this race but his UAE Derby finish might have been the best KY Derby prep run we've seen all year. It seems to be as the races get longer this horse gets better. He's one of my top choices and I'll be featuring him prominently in my wagering.

15. Instilled Regard (50-1): When Instilled Regard has ran against Derby caliber horses he's come in 4th.  When he's ran against fringe Derby horses he's won. I consider Instilled Regard to be similar to a gate keeper in boxing. IF you can beat him you should be racing against the big boys, if you can't you aren't a top caliber horse. Still, he's the horse this year that makes the KY Derby Superfecta so hard to hit. You can't include them all and he's never finished lower than 4th.

16. Magnum Moon (6-1): Also facing the curse of Apollo, also undefeated, also seemed to get better as the races got longer.  Magnum Moon is a speed horse and he should figure in the early pace.  Will he tire?  I'm not sure.  But he's a good horse that's beaten good horses and if you like Justify you have to like Magnum Moon.

17. Solomini (30-1): Solomini has made a habit of running among the Derby favorites, beating some of them, but ultimately coming in 2nd or 3rd. Still, this is a horse with some tactical speed that has never finished worse than third in any race so here's another example of why the Derby Superfecta is so hard to hit.

18. Vino Rosso (12-1): The training partner to Audible and a horse that I've been very high on since the infamous morning work where he made the latter look like a yard horse.  The problem here is the post-draw, and the fact that until the Wood Memorial this horse looked average against many of these horses. It's possible that this horse just figured it out at the Wood or it could be that he just really took a liking to Aqueduct.  Tough for me to determine.  This is the one horse that I'm struggling with on where to place him in this race.

19. Noble Indy. (30-1): IF you can draw a line through the Risen Star where this horse was jostled at the start and still rallied to finish 2nd, then there's a case to be made for Noble Indy based on the Louisiana Derby.  The problem is that Noble Indy appears, on paper, to be just a notch below these horses at the present time but might be one to watch later in the year. (Haskell, Travers etc.) I don't think he's fast enough to overcome that outside draw.  If he's the horse that beats me I'm comfortable with that.

20. Combatant (50-1): This half-brother to Justify is a pure closer. Expect to find him way off the pace and looking to rally through horses at the end. I don't like his tactical speed, I don't like that he's never won at the Stakes level but I do like that he's never finished lower than 4th.  I think he's going to be up against it here and with his post draw I see him struggling to compete against the class in this race.

AE 21. Blended Citizen (50-1): If he gets in due to a scratch (increasingly unlikely) I don't see him having the speed to compete. He's not done well against Derby Caliber horses.



How I'm wagering.


$20 Win - 7 - Justify. I've watched all of his races on tape and I'm a believer. I didn't see the weakening in the Santa Anita that some horse players claimed to see. He outran the field, and coasted home. He's very fast out of the gate so I think he gets the position he wants and Mike Smith in the irons is too smart to get caught up in a speed duel.

$10 Win - 5 - Audible. This horse is just too good to leave out Period.

$5 Win - 14 - Mendelssohn. I loved his UAE win but he's got several things working against him. Including faster horses to his inside.  Still, he's in with a chance.

$2 Win - 19 - Noble Indy. Of all the long shot runners with a chance I can make the strongest case for him.

$2 WPS ($6 Total) - 4 - Flameaway. It's hard for me to leave this horse totally out.

$1 Supr. ($32 total)- 7 with 5-6-14 with 5-6-14-18- with 4-6-14-16-18

$75 Total Investment.

Clearly I'm keying on Justify as my favorite but I'm trying to go fairly broad at the bottom of the card. I think Audible is 2nd best but I give him trip consideration to third.  After that it's wide open. I'm probably too chalky at the top but as I've said throughout, this is a TOUGH super to figure out.

Good luck however you play.

Kentucky Oaks 2018: Notes on the Runners and Wagers

Unlike the Kentucky Derby, the Kentucky Oaks appears, on paper, to be a match race between two really good Fillies. Midnight Bisou and Monomoy Girl.  But I have a couple of other horses that I think might be able to upset the apple cart and who might come in at a price.  Let's look at the contenders....

1. Sassy Sienna (15-1): Ridden by veteran jock Gary Stevens this filly has a speed problem. A big speed problem in that her highest speed rating is a full 11 points behind the favorite and she obtained that three races ago, on a mile run. The post draw in the Oaks is not as big of a deal as in the Derby due to the smaller field but the inside is still a tough place to do business. This stalker/pacer might have trouble due to a lack of true tactical speed.

2. Coach Rocks (12-1): The horse that I think will come into this race as the "sharp" horse only has on Stakes race to her resume (the Grade II Gulfstream Park Oaks) but she did score an impressive closing win over Take Charge Paula, who was highly regarded going in, and will get her chance to rematch. Normally I fade the "sharp" horses in races but her odds might just be long enough to take a stab.

3. Classy Act (15-1): Came in a close second to Monomoy Girl in the Rachel Alexandra at Fair Grounds two starts ago but failed to replicate that in the Fair Grounds Oaks. This is a speed horse who should have a lot to say about the pace of this race but who I believe will falter at the distance. Like Firenze Fire on the male side I would love to see Classy Act become a miler and see what happens later in her career.

4. Chocolate Martini (12-1): Since being claimed on Feb 2nd this horse has gone win, win with two outstanding closing finishes in an Optional Claimer and the aforementioned Fair Ground Oaks. Oh, and neither of those races featured "perfect trips". IF the pace goes crazy (a possibility) then Chocolate Martini could be the horse that sweeps up the crumbs. Will definitely be a factor in my wagers.

5. Wonder Gadot (20-1): This filly has been heavily raced and her last race, a loss by a nose to Sassy Sienna was her best. The problem again is speed.  WG is a pacer who doesn't appear to have enough tactical speed to truly compete Still, might be a factor in my exotics near the bottom.

6. Kelly's Humor (30-1): No speed, and a poor history against horses of this caliber make for a tough ask. This horse would need to improve exponentially to be competitive. Her only stakes win is an overnight and her last competition against similar in this race was a 10th place finish....at Churchill Downs.  Yeesh.

7. Rayya (15-1): The best argument that people are making for this filly is that she finished 2nd to Mendelssohn. The problem is that she finished 2nd to Mendelssohn by 18 lengths. Of all her races the UAE Oaks win was the best but I think she's going to find herself up against it here.

8. Heavenhasmynikki (30-1): Normally, I would take a look a this horse, who's never won a stakes race but never finished lower than 4th and relegate her to a spot in the back of my exotics just in case. But then I saw the jockey.  Calvin Borel, or Bo-Rail, the jockey who's taken several horses at Churchill and ran them along the inside rail to victory.  She's been off for two months which could be a good thing. This is my long shot play.

9. Take Charge Paula (15-1): In my opinion Take Charge Paula is the best of the "other" horses in this race that aren't the two favorites. She's a pacing horse that has flashed the speed to keep up with the big two and has an outside chance of winning.  Yes, the's come in 2nd recently but she did reel off three straight stakes wins (two were overnights) including a pretty good win over My Miss Lilly.

10. Midnight Bisou (5-2): The 2nd most decorated horse in this field although I would argue that strength of competition is a slight concern. Still, this horse has improved in every start since the first one and if that trend continues she should be rumbling down the stretch to challenge for the win.

11. My Miss Lilly (10-1): After a huge jump in performance in the Gazelle My Miss Lilly is, to me, the most difficult horse in this race to handicap.  Was the Gazelle an aberration or was it a sign that Mark Hennig has her firing on all cylinders?  I'm always leery about a horse's next race after a jump like that. How much did it take out of her?

12. Patrona Margarita (30-1): Her best win is over Kelly's Humor, but against other horses in this race she finished far behind.  I don't see the tactical speed here to make a deep run unless there's a speed duel in front of her and she gets the trip to claw up ground. Her biggest problem is that I think there's a better closing option in this race with Chocolate Martini.

13. Eskimo Kisses (15-1): Another late charger that's going to have to hope for a speed duel and that she is the one to pick up the crumbs. This is a horse that I can see coming in 3rd or 4th with no problem, but 1st or 2nd might be a stretch.

14. Monomoy Girl. (2/1): A worthy 2-1 M/L favorite you could see a situation where Monomoy Girl jumps out to the front of this race and never looks back.  My feeling is she's going to go off at somewhere around 7/5 or 6/5 so the smart play is going to be to be to bet against her and if you get beaten by a favorite so what.


My bets:

$10 Win - 10 - Midnight Bisou - Ideally I'll be able to get around 4-1 at post time.
$5 Win - 4 - Chocolate Martini  - Hoping for a price here.
$2 WPS ($6 total) - 8 - Heavenhasmynikki - I've lost too many times to a Borel long shot at Churchill
$2 - Exacta Box -10/14. Box the two favorites in case it's a match race.

$2 Oaks/Derby DD - 14 Monomoy Girl & 10 Midnight Bisou with 7 Justify & 5 Audible

This double is fairly cheap and gives me the top two choices in both races.


$25 Total investment.


Good luck however you play.

Finally: Some Las Vegas 2018 NFL Win Totals

After noting how the offshore books see it we finally are starting to get some NFL win totals from the Vegas books.

As I figured, they're not all that different from 5Dimes.

	CG Technologies
	American Football Conference				National Football Conference
	East		Projection		East		Projection
	New England		12		Philadelphia		10.5
	Miami		7		Dallas		9
	Buffalo		6.5		Washington		7
	New York Jets		5		New York Giants		6.5
	North				North
	Pittsburgh		10.5		Green Bay		10
	Baltimore		8.5		Minnesota		9.5
	Cincinnati		7		Detroit		8
	Cleveland		4.5		Chicago		6.5
	South				South
	Jacksonville		8.5		New Orleans		9.5
	Houston		8.5		Atlanta		9.5
	Tennessee		8		Carolina		9
	Indianapolis Colts		6		Tampa Bay		6.5
	West				West
	Kansas City		8.5		Los Angeles Rams		9.5
	Los Angeles Chargers		8		San Francisco		8.5
	Oakland		8.5		Seattle		9
	Denver		7		Arizona		6.5

	WestGate Superbook
	American Football Conference				National Football Conference
	East		Projection		East		Projection
	New England		11		Philadelphia		10.5
	Miami		6		Dallas		8.5
	Buffalo		6.5		Washington		7
	New York Jets		6		New York Giants		6.5
	North				North
	Pittsburgh		10.5		Green Bay		10
	Baltimore		8		Minnesota		10
	Cincinnati		7		Detroit		8
	Cleveland		5.5		Chicago		6.5
	South				South
	Jacksonville		9		New Orleans		9.5
	Houston		8.5		Atlanta		9
	Tennessee		8		Carolina		9
	Indianapolis Colts		6.5		Tampa Bay		6.5
	West				West
	Kansas City		8.5		Los Angeles Rams		9.5
	Los Angeles Chargers		9		San Francisco		9
	Oakland		8		Seattle		8
	Denver		7		Arizona		5.5

South Point
American Football Conference				National Football Conference
East		Projection		East		Projection
New England		11.5		Philadelphia		10
Miami		6		Dallas		8.5
Buffalo		7.5		Washington		7
New York Jets		6		New York Giants		6.5
North				North
Pittsburgh		10.5		Green Bay		10
Baltimore		8		Minnesota		9.5
Cincinnati		7		Detroit		7.5
Cleveland		5.5		Chicago		6.5
South				South
Jacksonville		9		New Orleans		9.5
Houston		9		Atlanta		9.5
Tennessee		8		Carolina		9
Indianapolis Colts		6.5		Tampa Bay		6.5
West				West
Kansas City		8		Los Angeles Rams		10
Los Angeles Chargers		9.5		San Francisco		8.5
Oakland		8		Seattle		7.5
Denver		7.5		Arizona		6

I hear that Golden Nugget has posted lines but I haven't found them online as of yet. As for the rest (MGM, Caesar's William Hill, Wynn) I'm hearing that the lines won't be publicly available until JULY.  I even hear that ticket writers at those books are referring players to other books to make bets until them.

Odd.