Sports Betting: Shut up Chuck.

Since the SCOTUS struck down PASPA people have been waiting for the Federal Government to weigh in on sports betting.  If recent comments by New York Senator Chuck Schumer are any indication, we'd be better off if they'd just stay out of it.

Chuck Schumer Suggest Federal Framework for Sports Betting. Darren Rovell, ESPN

Schumer's suggestions include the idea that all sports books only use official league data to determine outcomes and that the leagues themselves should be involved in determining what bets would be accepted.

No and no.

First off, giving the leagues a monopoly on data is a sure-fire way to further enrich owners (read: Schumer's campaign donors) but does little to assist the bettor in almost any situation. It creates a monopoly on data and shoves out independent operators who are, in some cases, providing better statistical data than the leagues themselves.

Second, giving the leagues control over what bets are accepted is just wrong. Sports betting is a marketplace, let the market decide what the action is.

If this is what we are to expect from Federal legislation regarding sports betting then we're better off taking a pass and letting the States decide.

It is perhaps no coincidence that most of the major league offices reside in New York, so Sen. Schumer is beholden to their interests.  After all, they have his ear and their relatively large pocketbooks have his undivided attention obviously.

Go away Chuck, let the adults in the room work things out.

College Football: Week 1. Odds, Thoughts and the season premier of the FIVE

Here....we....go....

I've already given a lot of thoughts on this season so let's just dive in. (All odds from William Hill** sports book unless otherwise noted)

The Week One FIVE*:


1. Northwestern @ Purdue (-1.5)  [52].  

Pick: Purdue to cover

Call me crazy but I really like the Boilermakers in this situation. Northwestern is always better at home than on the road and there's optimism in Purdue this year which should make for a fairly raucous home field advantage.  NW 10 Purdue 24


2. Syracuse (-5.5) @ Western Michigan [64.5].

Pick: Western Michigan to cover

I'm a fan of Orange coach Dino Babers, and I think he's doing a good job turning around the mess of a program that was left to him. But I think Western Michigan has enough talent to keep things very close, especially at home. Syracuse 24 Western Michigan 23.


3. Army @ Duke (-13.5) [45.5].

Pick: Army to cover and win on the ML

I will admit to being a little shocked when I saw this line.  Army is not chopped liver, and Duke is not exactly a world beater. I expect the Black Knights to control the ball and have success with the triple option against Duke. I'm even picking this to be an upset. Army 28 Duke 21.


4. Colorado (-7) @ Colorado State  [66].

Pick: Colorado to cover

Some might write off last week's performance against Hawai'i as an aberration but I saw real problem's in Colorado State's team that I think Colorado can exploit. I don't think the Buffs are going to be as bad as everyone thinks. Colorado 38 Colorado State 24.


5. Ole Miss @ Texas Tech (-2) [67].  (You can get -3 at Caesars)

Pick: Ole Miss to cover and win on the ML

Death, taxes, and Texas Tech is overrated to start the season. I'm not a huge fan of Matt Luke as a football coach but I think he's better than the male model masquerading as a head coach in Lubbock. Calling the "upset" here. Ole Miss 42 Texas Tech 24

Other games/lines of interest.


Florida Atlantic @ OU (-21) [68.5]. - Call this the "Six" because this was the first game out of the FIVE. Lane Kiffin's offense is going to give OU's defense fits. Leaning heavy on the over here but I'd like the number to drop down a point or two by game time.

Houston (-25) @ Rice [55.5]. - The score of this game is going to be whatever Houston wants it to be.  I wouldn't be surprised to see something along the lines of 62-0 Cougars. Rice is that bad.

UMass @ Boston College (-19) [63]. - A team that's got some talent on offense against a team that's all defense with no offense to speak of.  Take the under.

Wake Forest (-6) @ Tulane [55]. - You can get -7 at Wynn, if you're inclined to take Tulane with the points. I would.  This is year three of the Willie Fitz era and Tulane is going to be better than people think.

Utah State @ Michigan State (-23) [51] - Some are saying that this Utah State team is going to be pretty good. I don't see it. And we KNOW that Michigan State is going to be good. I expect Sparty to lay down a marker here in their home opener.

San Diego State @ Stanford (-14.5) [49]. - It's hard to play at the Farm. Watch for Bryce Love to run wild in this game against an SDSU defense that has some questions.

Oregon State @ Ohio State (-36) [64] - You could make this line -50 and I wouldn't bet against the Buckeyes here.  This is a team that's going to pull together after what they've been sold is a hatchet job on Urban.

Kent State @ Illinois (-16) [55]. - Yes, it's Kent State, but it's also Illinois. I don't have faith in either of these teams so this game is a layoff for me.

Texas (-13.5) @ Maryland [57]. - Last year Maryland beat Texas, ran all over them. I don't THINK Tom Herman lets that happen again but you never know. While I'm not buying into the Longhorn hype that others are this year I do think the Longhorns are better than the Terps.  The question is by how much?

Washington @ Auburn (-1.5) [48]. - You can grab -1 at the Wynn, which I would do because I like Auburn in this situation.

Tennessee @ West Virginia (-10) [62] - Two teams that are enigmas wrapped in riddles burnt on couches. I think the Mountaineers are the better team, and I'll definitely be watching the game, but I wouldn't bet on either team yet until we know more about them.

Washington State (-1) @ Wyoming [47]. - You can get -1.5 almost everywhere else in Vegas if you like the Cougars. I actually like Wyoming here but not enough to pull the trigger on the upset call. Mike Leach teams start slowly and Wyoming's defense is something serious.  That said, Wazzu is much more talented than is NM State.  Pass.

North Carolina @ California (-7) [61]. - Larry Fedora's team needs to tackle hard to save the republic, and California is still rebuilding. Another game between two teams that I don't trust but will be keeping an eye on to see what each has.  You can get -7 almost everywhere else in Vegas depending on your lean.

SMU @ North Texas (-4) [71.5]. I THINK North Texas is overrated by many pundits but I didn't want to take a stand against a team that does have some offensive talent the first week in my FIVE. I do like SMU some, and North Texas some. I think this might be the game of the weekend that few watch but everyone swears they saw.

Miami (-3.5) @ LSU [48].  The first step in the "Ed Orgeron loses his job" 2018 season.

Virginia Tech @ Florida State (-7) [57]. - I'm high on the Hokies this year, but Florida State still has a tone of talent, they just have a new coach and new system to work out.  The marquee game for ESPN this week should be exciting and a fun watch.


Games involving teams in which I have a rooting interest.

UNLV @ USC (-26.5) [64]. - The Desert Rug Rats kick-off what I think will be a pivotal season. They can't win here, but they could cover which would be a win in and of itself. Head Coach Tony Sanchez needs to make a bowl this year. He's got the offense to do it, but defense MUST improve. USC is breaking in a true Freshman quarterback and has a lot to replace. How good are they?

And Finally.....

Michigan @ Norter Dame (-1) [47]. -  My HOPE is that Shae Patterson comes out, proves himself the real deal, and Michigan walks out of South Bend, Indiana with a win and a springboard toward a great season that sees the team finally win a conference championship while beating both Ohio State and Michigan State. But first....clear this hurdle.


I don't know about you, but I'm ready to get going on a full weekend of college football.





































*The FIVE are 5 games that I've picked for inclusion. I may, or may not be placing my own personal wagers on these. These are not intended as betting advice, but an insight into how I choose to look at games. I do rate my performance on the FIVE annually, last year was not good, but the FIVE got shut-down early due to personal issues.  In past seasons I've finished somewhere just over 52%. Fade or follow, it's your choice and your money.

**All odds are as accurate as I can make them as of the time of publication. When possible, I grab them from the source, (this year William Hill for the most part because they offer lines early) I will be checking lines periodically AFTER initial publication and will try to adjust as appropriate through editing. I will note edits by italicizing them and placing notes under the write-up.  My goal in this is to be as transparent as possible. But remember, I have a day job and am not being paid for content on here so......If you want the most accurate lines go look them up yourself.

College Football: Kicking off a new FIVE starting tomorrow

Every college football season, for fun, I pick 5 games out of the weekly schedule and provide odds, picks and commentary on them for entertainment purposes. I've taken to calling this the FIVE.

The FIVE is a fun way for me to stay engaged in college football while living in a State (Texas) that is as bas-ackwards as it gets when it comes to sports betting. I do spend time handicapping these games, and historically I've had a hit rate just above 52%.  Typically I start off slow, and then start gathering steam the second half of the year.

The first FIVE of the new season drops tomorrow morning. Given my past history, if you're a sports wagering person, you might choose to fade most of the picks, or you might choose to play them. Either way, I might remind you that if you're taking wagering advice from an accountant in Houston you should get help. Immediately.

The scoring is simple:  1 win for every correct pick and 1 loss for every incorrect pick.

I'm adding a new wrinkle to the FIVE this year, I'm including cover/ML picks. IF I like an underdog enough to win then I'm picking them to cover in some cases, and cover and WIN in others. Should the underdog pull off the upset I'm going to award an extra 1/2 point to the win total for being correct there, if they just cover then it will count as a W. If they fail to cover it counts as a loss.

I'll also be making "play" picks at CappedIN for my FIVE (at $100 increments) so you can see real-time financial results. I'm going to start a fund there, which I'll link to later, called the FIVE which will allow you to see real time W/L results.

Important note: These are FREE Picks. I do not sell picks, I am not a tout. I do this because I enjoy it and it makes the season fun for me. I'm not a professional bettor nor do I sell myself as one. I'm a fan of college football and sports betting who places the occasional bet for entertainment purposes. I am not trying to be, nor do I want to be, a professional gambler. As you'll see going forward I'm definitely not an expert.

I'm happy to discuss college football in the comments section, but I won't engage people on how good/bad the picks are in the comments, and insults, as always, will not be published so save yourself the effort if you want to bust my chops.  You can feel free to call me stupid on Twitterz should you feel so led.  Honestly, I don't care and I won't respond but I believe in people having a healthy outlet for their anger.

In other words: View this for what it is.  Pure fun.

And good luck to you should you decide to make your own wagers on games. College football is the best sport in the world. If only we would stop taking it so seriously all the damn time.

College Football: How I learned to stop worrying about the CFP and love the spectacle.

College football is back.

Forget about those silly ESPN ads suggesting that it's not until next week because they're wrong. College football came back last Saturday when UMass kicked off against Duquesne. Then North Carolina A&T won an outstanding game over Jacksonville State (which happened to feature my new favorite kicker) before Hawai'i donned some brilliant helmets and pulled the first upset of the year over Colorado State. Also, Rice kicked a field goal in overtime to beat Prairie View A&M who gave them the game with a safety and 4th quarter collapse, spoiling our first FCS upset alert.

The day was capped off by an outstanding performance by Wyoming over a New Mexico State team that has some offensive issues to work through.

Now, we take a breath, until Thursday, which starts 5 straight days of games, including the first "full" day of play on Saturday. You won't have enough televisions to watch all of the games.

It's back, and it's glorious, and it will be even better if you choose to ignore the talking heads and disavow the College Football Playoff.

The last few years I've cared about the CFP, gotten angry when the selection committee did stupid things to exclude certain teams from contention and gave us 4 teams that, to be honest, only the casual fan cared about.

Because it doesn't matter who wins the "National Championship" in College football, it never has. Were I king of football I'd eliminate the CFP and take us back to the old bowl system and balloting and arguments all off-season about who's really #1. 

And that's the problem. Recently the powers that be in television and the big conferences have stopped catering to the hard-core fan, and have chased the casual fan in some damned-fool adventure to crown a "true champion", never realizing that they have not.

It started with the truly awful B(C)S, which was designed to get an SEC team in the "Championship" bowl game no matter what.  Be honest, the SEC wasn't the behemoth we know it to be today until the B(C)S made it so. It was a strong conference, arguably the best in the country many years, but it had competition from the B1G and Pac-12 and Big XII and ACC almost every year.  We rarely knew which one was better because we never got closure.  It was great and glorious and it allowed for debate.

Then the B(C)S came along and put Kirk Herbstreit in front of the cameras to tell us that all debate was over and some super-computers and pollsters had ended the questioning. ESPN made a mint, the big colleges raked in the money and smaller schools took a beating. The casual fan stopped watching, or caring about, anyone not in the Power 5 conferences and the slow death spiral of a once great system started.

But that wasn't enough.  Because there was still a chance, albeit slight, that a non B(C)S conference school could garner headlines.

Thus was created the CFP, which empaneled a board of 10 "August" football "experts" whose job it was to tell us who the "top 4 teams in the country" were at any given time. Nevermind that, from the jump, their lists were flawed and designed only to generate controversy, and ratings, for ESPN's "embrace debate" list of television shows.

Last year was the final straw.  When Alabama, who lost to Auburn and couldn't even win their conference championship, gained entry into the CFP and then took advantage of a long prep window to win the whole thing many people walked away with a bitter taste in their mouths.

So this year, I don't care.

I don't care what the CFP says, I don't care who numbers 1-4 are come week 8 or 9 and I really don't care whose what or where except for in the conference standings. I'm going to watch as many games as I can every week, including Group of 5 games involving teams that might, or might not, be any good, and I'm going to enjoy the sheer spectacle of the games.

I WANT to see bad plays and hefty kickers and god-awful uniforms and half-full stadiums and Enter Sandman and "Auburn's gonna win the football game!!" and all of the pomp and circumstance that is going to fill my television screens every day.

I WANT to see Group of 5 bowls and will watch every one of them that I can.

I WANT to see rivalries and top matchups and FCS upsets over FBS teams and Hawai'i featuring a quarterback with blonde dreadlocks.

I'll watch all of this and enjoy it every weekend.  And I won't care who the CFP committee ranks 1-4.

Oh, I'll watch the CFP because it's the last college football I'll get to see all year, but I won't recognize the ultimate winner as the National Champion because there will have been too many good teams excluded to really be sure.

Neither should you.

College Football 2018 Season Preview: The Independents

Normally when you speak of the independent teams it's Notre Dame, and everyone else. My shocker position is that the Irish will not have the best record of the independent teams this year. They won't even be in the top 2.

Team	W	L
Army	11	1
New Mexico State	10	2
Notre Dame	9	3
Umass	6	6
BYU	4	8
Liberty	2	10

Yup, Army.  Like Florida Atlantic they have to travel to Oklahoma and then?  Not too much until Air Force and Navy to end the season.  New Mexico State is in the same boat. I predict they start slowly, with losses to Wyoming and Minnesota, and then get on a roll.  

Notre Dame is still going to be pretty good, but they have a tougher schedule this year and I think Michigan beats them to start the season, then they feast on their "traditional rivalries" against cupcakes, before finding themselves up against it against Florida State and USC.

UMass barely qualifies, and gets into a bowl, while BYU continues to struggle in the current environment and Liberty is just happy to be here.

College Football 2018 Season Preview: The B1G (redo)

After some further review and after taking another look at the teams I realize that I've made some errors when I first evaluated the B1G, Therefore I'm taking my one mulligan and revisiting my rankings.

Conference Standings:
East		W	L	West		W	L
Michigan State		12	0	Wisconsin		9	3
Ohio State		11	1	Purdue		8	4
Michigan		10	2	Minnesota		8	4
Penn State		9	3	Iowa		8	4
Indiana		5	7	Northwestern		6	6
Maryland		3	9	Nebraska		5	7
Rutgers		2	10	Illinois		2	10
Won division				Won division
Conference Championship:		Michigan State over Wisconsin
Bowl Teams:		10
CFP:		Michigan State
Big 6:		Ohio State
Big 6 2:		None
Others:		Michigan
		Penn State
		Wisconsin
		Purdue
		Minnesota
		Iowa
		Northwestern
		Nebraska
Most Underrated:	Minnesota
Most Overrated:	Nebraska
Coaches on Hot Seat:	Lovie Smith, Chris Ash, DJ Durkin

One of the things I did wrong was judge Michigan too harshly.  This is because I'm a fan and I typically get too critical when I first look at them. Michigan is going to be good this year, definitely better than last year in the sense that they should have a credible offense to go with a spectacular defense.

I think Michigan State is going to be REALLY good and I now have them getting into the CFP in place of Ohio State 

Horse Racing: The TVG Pacific Classic

There is only one question in this race:

How in the world do you beat Accelerate?

I'm going to take a 3-pronged approach with the following horses:

2. Dr. Dorr: (6/1) - Yes, he seems to like shorter but he should jump to the front of this pack and IF he goes uncontested he could find himself in front at the end.  It's unlikely, but everything is unlikely when you're trying to beat a probable favorite who should be at at least 1/5 post time.

4. Roman Rosso: (5/1) - The "second" Baffert horse in the race is almost a complete unknown in the States. I'd prefer it if this was his second running in the US after shipping in but I still think he might have some speed and might be able to pull the upset here. Never underestimate Baffert at Del Mar.

6. Beach View: (15/1) - His last start was a win over the same track at a 1 1/2 where he outran Hoppertunity, who until then was positioning himself as the premier older distance horse in the country.  Can Beach View close the same cutting back in distance?  I'm unsure. But he's likely to go off at a huge price which means that you have to at least take a look at him.

Analysis: This is Accelerate's race to lose.  I don't think he will but I'm not betting into what are sure to be short odds for him to win. I see some pace in this race and I think the unfortunate injury to jockey Victor Espinoza (being replaced by Joel Rosario) will not be much of a factor.  A slow-ish pace is his big worry, but I think there's enough speed in this race to set it up perfectly for him.

Selections:  5-2-4-7

I have to include Pavel in my selections because he's a gritty horse that rarely finishes too far back. That said, he's rarely the winner either.

Wagers: (probable)

$5 Win - 2

$5 Win - 4

$2 Win - 6

$1 Tri Box - 5-2-4-7 ($24 wager)

I'll also be playing the Pick 4 that concludes with this race.

College Football 2018 Season Preview: Conference USA

If we all sat down and provided an honest reason we're going to pay attention to C-USA this year we'd probably all be in agreement for reason #1: Florida Atlantic and their Head Coach Layne Kiffin. Truthfully, it's the main reason we're all tuning in this season.  I think the conference has more to offer this year though, including several teams that might have a chance to pull an upset or three.

Conference Standings:
WEST		W	L	EAST		W	L
UTSA		8	4	Florida Atlantic		11	1
Louisiana Tech		7	5	Marshall		8	4
UAB		7	5	Middle Tennessee		8	4
North Texas		5	7	Old Dominion		8	4
UTEP		2	10	Western Kentucky		5	6
Southern Miss		5	7	Florida International		2	10
Rice		2	11	Charlotte		2	10
Wins Division				Wins Division
Conference Championship:
		Florida Atlantic over UTSA
Bowl Teams:		7
CFP:		None
Big Six		None
CFP 2:		None
Others:		Florida Atlantic
		UTSA
		Louisiana Tech
		UAB
		Marshall
		Middle Tennessee
		Old Dominion
Most Underrated:		UTSA
Most Overrated:		Marshall
Coaches on Hot Seat:		UTEP, Southern Miss, Rice, Florida International, Charlotte

Will Florida Atlantic be that good? Yes, I think so. Once they get past Oklahoma the schedule really evens out and Kiffin has already shown that he's dead serious about winning there.

Wait, UT-San Antonio? Yup. They've been among the more underrated teams in the conference the last couple of years and I think that trend continues this year. Don't sleep on this team. I realize that North Texas is the sexy pick, but I think UTSA is the better team.

The Layne Kiffin Effect: You have to feel for Florida International Head Coach Butch Davis. Because their main rival is Layne it's quite possible he gets the heave-ho after what I predict is going to be a bad year.

Questions:

How much NY6 buzz will FAU get?  In my opinion, not all that much.  Memphis and Boise State are clearly better teams and to get in a New Year's Six bowl I think a G5 team has to go undefeated. The Oklahoma game is going to do them in.

How does this league stack up?  They have some pretty bad teams (Rice, Charlotte, Florida International, UTEP, but some OK teams as well.  Honestly I'm a little down on North Texas, and I think Marshall is overrated as well but they're still solid teams. They could surprise some big teams come bowl time because there is talent on these rosters.

Game of the Year: Florida Atlantic @ Marshall. After Oklahoma this seems the biggest test for the Owls. If they win this......

Fun game you might overlook: Don't skip UT-SA travelling to Tempe to play Arizona State. It will be Kevin Sumlin's first game and I could see the Roadrunners giving them a scare.

College Football 2018 Season Preview: The FunBelt

Much like the MAC, the Sun Belt (Fun Belt) conference is a gem that many fans overlook.  If you're a casual fan and only pay attention to the Power 5 conferences then you're missing out on a lot. Including, but not limited to, fun games played in front of small, but active crowds during odd times with teams just trying to win the conference, make a bowl, and maybe move up the draft boards by a round or two.

Conference Standings:
	Overall			Conference
Teams (No divisions)	W	L		W	L
Arkansas State	10	2		8	0
Appalachian State	10	2		7	1
Troy	9	3		7	1
Georgia Southern	6	6		4	4
South Alabama	5	7		4	4
Coastal Carolina	5	7		3	5
Georgia State	4	8		3	5
ULM	4	8		3	5
Texas State	2	10		1	7
Louisiana	1	11		0	8
Bowl Teams:	4
	CFP:	None
	Big Six	None
	CFP 2:	None
	Big Six 2:	None
	Others:	Arkansas State
		Appalachian State
		Troy
		Georgia Southern
Most Underrated:	Troy
Most Overrated:	UL Monroe
Coaches on Hot Seat:	South Alabama, Coastal Carolina, Georgia State, ULM, Texas State, Louisiana

Game of the Year: Let's get this out of the way early. Appalachian State Plays Arkansas State in week 7. It will be for the championship.

Hardest thing to figure out: The squishy middle of this conference. Georgia Southern, South Alabama, Coastal Carolina, Georgia State and UL Monroe are all very similar teams. In many cases it came down to OOC scheduling and home games to differentiate them.  Only one of those 5 makes a bowl game in my opinion. I could very well be wrong on which one.

Missing the FCS: Texas State is atrocious. It's too bad because San Marcos is essentially what Austin was before it morphed into the sad thing it is today.

How far the mighty have fallen: Louisiana changed their name from Louisiana Lafayette and it's all been downhill from there. I think this is their nadir however.

Questions:

Who breaks out?  There's a lot of parity in this league and something funny always seems to happen.

Does Arkansas State ruin UNLV's season?  If UNLV loses at Arkansas State, I don't see any path to a bowl for them. I'm picking UNLV to win here but that's more because I want them to than any realistic chance they have.  Still.

Why all the FCS opponents?  It's sad really. The new dynamics of the CFP have removed the incentive for Power 5 schools to play these Group of 5 schools.  This means that Campbell, Gardner-Webb, Liberty (OK, not technically FCS but might as well be) and Kennesaw State all find themselves heading to play FunBelt opponents.

College Football 2018 Season Preview: MACtion

I'll admit to having a soft-spot in my heart for the MAC. You have to admire a conference that's willing to do whatever it takes to get on TV, including playing on Tuesday and Wednesday which, when you think about it, gives us 7 nights of glorious football for about a month and a half every year.

Conference Standings:
East		W	L	West		W	L
Ohio		11	1	Northern Illinois		9	3
Miami (OH)		7	5	Western Michigan		9	3
Bowling Green		4	8	Central Michigan		8	4
Akron		3	9	Toledo		7	5
Buffalo		2	10	Eastern Michigan		6	6
Kent State		1	11	Ball State		2	10
Won division				Won division
Conference Championship:		Ohio over Northern illinois
Bowl Teams:		7
	CFP:	None
	Big 6:	None
	CFP 2:	None
	Others:	Ohio
		Northern Illinois
		Miami (OH)
		Western Michigan
		Central Michigan
		Toledo
		Eastern Michigan
Most Underrated:	Central Michigan
Most Overrated:	Akron
Coaches on Hot Seat:	Akron
	Kent State
	Ball State
	Buffalo

Best player: A.J. Ouelette (Ohio).  All Frank Solich has done since taking over at Ohio is bring in solid players who have produced solid seasons and solid records. How ya' like me now Nebraska?  The thing is, Ouelette might be the best player he's had at the RB position and for a coach who likes to run the ball that's golden.

Coach has to go: Can Tommy Bowden continue to under-perform for much longer at Akron? I just don't see it.

Top heavy league: The problem with the MAC is that I think the bottom of this league is going to be TERRIBLE.  Once you get past Eastern Michigan you fall fast into 4-3-2-1 win territory.  The West is best, but the best team is in the East.

Questions: 

Can they upset a B1G team this year?  I don't think so, but the best chance is probably Western Michigan AT Michigan, and I don't think that's all that likely. Their best bet for beating Power 5 teams is Central Michigan over Kansas (who's only technically a P5 team) and Ohio over Virginia.

Why should I watch?  Because the teams are fun. And College Football at it's heart is about fun and silliness and dumb plays and everything that the CFP is not.

Game of the year: The MAC waits until the last game of the season to give us Northern Illinois AT Western Michigan.  Strap in.

College Football 2018 Season Preview: The Mountain West Conference

The most logical conference to follow behind the AAC is the MWC, for the sole reason that these are clearly the top two Group of 5 conferences in the land and have been going back and forth for best ranked team.  Boise is the hot team here, but I think we see an upset in the Championship game which gives Memphis the nod.

Conference Standings:
Mountain		W	L	West		W	L
Boise State		12	0	Fresno State		9	3
Air Force		7	5	San Diego State		8	4
Colorado State		7	5	UNLV		6	6
Wyoming		5	7	San Jose State		5	7
Utah State		4	8	Hawaii		2	11
New Mexico		2	10	Nevada		1	11
Won division				Won division
Conference Championship:
	Fresno State over Boise State
Bowl Teams:		6
	CFP:	None
	Big 6:	None
	CFP 2:	None
	Others:	Boise State
		Air Force
		Colorado State
		Fresno State
		San Diego State
		UNLV
Most Underrated:	UNLV
Most Overrated:	San Diego State
Coaches on Hot Seat:	Wyoming
	Utah State
	Nevada
	New Mexico
	Hawaii
	Nevada
	San Jose State

Best Player: KeeSean Johnson Sr. Fresno State.  I know a lot of people are picking Wyoming's Wingard and Rypian from Boise State but I think Johnson has more talent and upside than both of them.

Dark horse for conference POTY: UNLV SO QB Armani Rogers.  Speed, athleticism but dodgy passing down the field hurt him in 2017. IF he can get better at throwing the ball the Rebels might be the sleeper team everyone overlooks.  Also: the defense must improve a TON.

Coach that's almost sure to go: Bob Davies, New Mexico. It's bad enough that you're a guy who the players don't like and who's not entirely adored by the fan bas but then you go 2-10?

No, they're not going to be good.  Nevada. Defensively they're horrible, possibly even worse than UNLV (odd that Nevada teams are horrid defensively) and on offense they're rolling out the son of Hal Mumme to try and find an option of the air raid that will work. It's going to be ugly.

Overrated based on last year: San Diego State. They're still going to be OK, they haven't fallen off a talent cliff, but they were so one-handed on offense last year it will be tough to come back from losing their running back.

Questions:

Will Wyoming bounce back?  No, I don't think so, and I think there's some heat building there if they don't. The opening game against NM State is going to be tougher than most think.

Will Boise St. Make a New Year's Six  game? They'll be the favorites to do so throughout the season, but with Boise recently there's always been a "huh?" game thrown in the mix. I think that comes against a good Fresno State team in the championship.

Will they fill their bowl commitments? Possibly the conference least likely to do so. I've got UNLV in a bowl (again) but I will admit that part of the reason for this is because I'm partial to the Desert Rug Rats and WANT them to do well.  The path is possible, but I also wouldn't be surprised if it DID NOT HAPPEN.

Fun early game you might overlook. Don't skip it when Fresno State visits Minnesota. Also, don't blink during Boise State/Oklahoma State. Someone might hit 100 in that game.

College Football 2018 Season Preview: The AAC.

I'm going to start the Group of 5 with the American Athletic Conference, who I think has one of the best chances of placing a team in the "here's a bread crumb so you don't sue us" New Year's Six game that's been reserved just to shut them all up.

Unlike the Power 5 I'm not going to delve that deeply into each team.

Conference Standings:
East		W	L	West		W	L
South Florida		10	2	Memphis		12	0
UCF		9	3	Tulane		8	4
Temple		8	4	Navy		8	5
Cincinnati		5	7	Houston		6	6
East Carolina		2	10	SMU		4	8
Connecticut		2	10	Tulsa		3	9
Won division				Won division
Conference Championship:
	Memphis over South Florida
Bowl Teams:		7
	CFP:	None
	Big 6:	Memphis
	CFP 2:	None
	Others:	South Florida
		UCF
		Temple
		Tulane
		Navy
		Houston
Most Underrated:	Tulane
Most Overrated:	Houston
Coaches on Hot Seat:	Houston, SMU, Connecticut, Cincinnati, East Carolina, SMU

Best Team: Memphis and I don't think it's that close.

Thing to watch: Gaze upon and marvel at Houston's all-world JR DT Ed Oliver as he plays his last college football season before moving on to the NFL Draft, where he'll probably be the first player taken.  After watching him play for two years he IS as good as the hype.  Houston's team on the other hand?  There's a reason I put Houston HC Major Applewhite on my "hot seat" list.

Overrated because of last year TOTY: UCF, but they're not as overrated as Houston.  UCF had a magical year and then lost a ton of talent on both offense and defense, and their head coach. They still have talent, but I don't even think they're the best team in their division this year.

Former good team ruined by Tommy Tuberville: Cincinnati. Man he ruined this program. It should be a crime what he did.

Open Questions: Can Tulsa beat Central Arkansas to open the season? I have them winning, but I wouldn't be shocked if they lose.

When will Tulane find an offense? I think it's this year. Their head coach is too good for them not to surprise sometime soon.

Why shouldn't you consider this a P6WER conference like they say?  Because the middle and bottom of this conference is WEAK.  And they have a bad record playing Power 5 Conferences outside of NY Bowl Games.

College Football Season Preview: The PAC-12

The way I see it there are two ways to look at the PAC-12 this year. Either you're a believer in Washington and see them running away and hiding, or you don't believe in them and think the season is going to be topsy-turvey with twists, turns and upsets galore.

I choose the latter.....

Conference Standings:
North	W	L	South	W	L
Washington	10	2	USC	10	2
Oregon	10	2	Arizona	7	5
Stanford	9	3	Utah	7	5
Washington State	9	3	Colorado	6	6
California	4	8	Arizona State	5	7
Oregon State	2	10	UCLA	4	8
Won division			Won division
Conference Championship:
	Washington over USC
Bowl Teams:	8
CFP:	None
Big 6:	USC	Washington
CFP 2:	None
Others:	Oregon
	Stanford
	Washington State
	Arizona
	Utah
	Colorado
Most Underrated:	Oregon
Most Overrated:	UCLA
Coaches on Hot Seat:	None

And here's my Team by Team:

1. Washington: Despite not believing in their ability to go undefeated and make the CFP, I still think you have to respect the talent possessed by the Huskies and I still think they're the best team in the PAC-12. Jake Browning is in his final year, as is RB Myles Gaskins and I'm fully expecting big years from them both. Offensively this team is going to be just fine. Defensively is where I think the questions lie as they have young players stepping in to fill huge shoes. That game against Auburn to start the season probably knocks them down in terms of CFP contention but I really think it's the game at Eugene that does them in.

2. USC: Head coach Clay Helton has a ton of offensive firepower to replace this year, starting with Sam Darnold. They're going to lean on True Freshman JT Daniels it seem to try and do it. This offense is YOUNG, but talented, fortunately they start the season against UNLV, unfortunately they run into Stanford in week 2, then Texas in week 3. After that however I think they get their sea-legs underneath them and go on a roll to finish atop the South.

3. Oregon: Mario Cristobal takes over the coaching reins from here and gone again Willie Taggert and the good news is that QB Justin Herbert seems to be healthy to start the season. This is an offensively talented Ducks team that might need a minute or two to grow into their defense.  They start the season off with three easy games so by the time Stanford comes to Eugene they should have it figured out. I think they'll be good this year, but not quite good enough to win the title.

4. Stanford: As long as David Shaw is the head coach Stanford is never going to be "bad". They also have Bryce Love back at RB running behind a good offensive line so they're going to be a handful on offense. Defensively they bring almost everyone back and are loaded with experienced upper classmen. Stanford will play everyone tough, but they're a little different team on the road than they are at the Farm and I think they stumble when traveling a few too many times this year.

5. Washington State: Mike Leach is a national treasure and one of the best offensive minds in the game. Yes, there's a huge question of who's going to be the quarterback but offensively this team has talent to spare. Defensively I expect them to be at, or slightly above last year's level which is not that bad.  Because of Leach's track record I'm placing Washington State on the high end of their scale. IF the QB situation isn't resolved they could well underperform however.

6. Arizona: After his quarterback issues at Texas A&M, new head coach Kevin Sumlin had to look at Khalil Tate and immediately send Rich Rodriguez a thank you card.  Add to that WR Shun Brown, RB JJ Taylor and Arizona is loaded at the skill positions.  Their big problem offensively? A young, and questionable O-line that's going to have to get good in a hurry since they open the season at BYU.  I think they make a bowl, I think they beat Houston, but I don't think they're ready yet to truly challenge the top-tier.

7. Utah: Someone on Twitter, sorry, I don't remember who, said that Utah was one of those teams that you might play and beat but wish that you hadn't after the game. Head Coach Tyler Wittingham's teams are always physical, and with QB Tyler Huntly and RB Zach Moss they have a great offensive backfield. Their O-line and D-line are big and physical, and their LB's make up ground and hit hard. I do worry a little bit about their DB's, but overall this is going to be a tough team to play. Just not enough talent across the board to win consistently against the big teams. Don't be surprised to see them pull an upset here and there however, especially at home.

8. Colorado: Last year the Buffalo took a stop back but I think they pull back into bowl contention this year.  Quarterback Steven Montez is back and he finally should have a running game to take the pressure off of him in the person of SR Transfer(Virginia Tech) RB Trayvon McMillan.  How far they can go however depends on an O-line that needs to improve from last years showing. Defensively they're relying on a lot of transfers, some who have been with the program for a couple of years now, to try and stop some of the high powered offenses they'll be seeing week in and week out in conference play.

9. Arizona State: There are two ways that this season can go for Arizona State, they can either surprise everyone and be pretty good, or they can collapse.  I think they have enough talent left over from Graham to avoid a total collapse, but the Herm Edwards hiring is not going to work out for them long-term. Enjoy this 5-7 season Sun Devils fans, because I think it's going to get a LOT worse before it gets better.

10. California: I expect the Bears offense to be one-handed at the start of the season, fully relying on Sr RB Patrick Laird running behind a very experienced offensive line as the passing game tries to gel. The defense has a lot of upper-classmen leadership but I think a lack of quality depth is going to find them wearing down against pass-happy PAC-12 offenses as games go on. There's a fault-line famously through their stadium. By the end of the season some might be praying for an earthquake.

11. UCLA: Easily the most over-hyped and overrated team in the PAC-12, largely due to new head coach Chip Kelly.  The problem for Kelly is that he really doesn't have a good answer at QB to replace Josh Rosen, and he's going to have to rely on young guys to grow up in a hurry on both offense and defense facing some tough units across the ball.  A big game for them is Week 3 at Fresno State, who has a good team.  This team is going to struggle this year, but things are looking up.

12. Oregon State: Head Coach Jonathan Smith just doesn't have a whole lot of talent to work with, as the struggles for the Beavers appear to be continuing. Unfortunately the Rodgers brothers aren't walking through the door so Smith is going to have to rebuild the old fashioned way.  Hopefully the administration is patient because this is a deep, dark hole they find themselves in and constantly churning coaches will not be the way to dig out of it.

Next Up: we move to the Group of 5 (not not the P6WER) and take a look at the American Athletic Conference.