Tonight is Game Six of the 2017 World Series.
The Houston Astros have a 3-2 Series lead on the LA Dodgers.
The Astros will be giving the ball to Justin Verlander in an attempt to close the Series out.
Verlander wears jersey number 35 for the Astros.
35 years ago I saw my first live baseball game in the Houston Astrodome.
The original name of the Astros was the Colt 45's.
Today is my 45th Birthday.
I think this goes without saying but I'll say it anyway:
GO ASTROS!!!!!!
(as an aside, this post is my 1,500th on this blog. Not related to the game in any way but hey)
Tuesday, October 31, 2017
Wednesday, October 18, 2017
College Football: The Week 8 FIVE
First: Some housekeeping.
There will be no FIVE next week. I am taking a week off.
Now, for week 8 I'm including a pick that is a sea change for me. Over the past few years I've refrained from including the University of Houston in my picks because I was a graduate of the UH System. My rule is to not include teams in my picks for which I have a rooting interest. This means that Michigan, UNLV and Houston will not appear in the FIVE.
That changes this week because I watched Houston lose to Tulsa and I didn't care. Not that I was rooting for them to lose, I just didn't care that they did so. Because of that I'm including their Thursday night game in this week's FIVE and will continue to include them if I believe the lines are correct.
Let's get to the games.
Standard Disclaimer: The lines are as accurate as I can get them at the time of publication. I pull my lines from the Westgate Superbook when available. If they are not available I use OddsShark. These may, or may not be games that I'm personally playing. You get what you pay for (the picks are free after all) and if you choose to follow an accountant from Houston in respect to game picks you might want to get some professional help.
1. Memphis @ Houston (-3) T: 60.5
On paper, Houston's 17-45 loss to Tulsa last week looks horrible. But the game was much closer than the score suggests and Tulsa is much better than their now 2-5 record suggests. That said, the Golden Hurricane are NOT among the top teams in the American while Memphis is. In fact, the only game that Memphis has lost is on the road to UCF, a team that I'm currently ranking at #10 in the country. Thursday night road games are notoriously tough on the visiting team, but I think this Memphis team is head and shoulders better than a Cougar team that seems to be reverting to Tony Levine form under Major Applewhite. Pick: Memphis to win on the M/L.
2. Air Force (-6) @ Nevada-Reno T: 67.5
The problem for Air Force has been their schedule. They've been in tough against Michigan, Navy, New Mexico and San Diego State. They played a horrible half of football against the Desert Rug Rats before the latter tired and they pulled off the win (at home) against a UNLV team that I think is better than their record suggests. The problem for Nevada-Reno is that they are NOT a good football team. They only have a home win against a Hawai'i team that travels poorly. Blowout coming. Pick: Air Force to cover -6.
3. University of Central Florida (-7.5) @ Navy T: 66
I have UCF slotted at number 10 in my 2nd top 10 and I don't think their being there is a fluke. They won at Maryland, versus Memphis and they have a home win over a FIU team that we're finding out is pretty good. Navy barely beat Air Force at home, and lost to the only good team they played in Memphis. UCF has one of the best offenses in college football, I foresee that being a central factor in this game. Pick: UCF to cover -7.5 (I think this number moves toward Navy in the coming days, patience could be a virtue here as you might get under a touchdown)
4. North Texas @ Florida Atlantic (-3.5) T: 65
In a match-up pitting the two first place teams in the C-USA I like the Mean Green's chances here. Florida Atlantic hasn't beaten anyone of note, while North Texas has already notched wins over UTSA and a surprisingly good UAB team. Seth Littrel doesn't get half of the press as Lane Kiffin, but he's likely the better coach, and has the better team, at this point in time. Pick: UNT to win on the M/L
5. Southern Miss @ Louisiana Tech (-2.5) T: 55.5
At the beginning of the season I was very high on the Bulldogs. I thought they had ample talent to win the C-USA and I still stand by that assessment. I thought Southern Miss was going to be hot garbage on the field and I was wrong there. They're not as bad as I thought. If head coach Sonny Dykes can't pull this game out of his hat then he won't be long for LaTech. This is a must win for the Bulldogs if they want to stay in the conference mix. Pick: Louisiana Tech to cover -2.5
Unlike previous weeks, there's no Wednesday night #FunBelt action to divert your attention from either the baseball playoffs, or the snooze worthy NBA regular season (that said, get well soon Gordon Hayward!) so there's no bonus pick this week.
Enjoy the games.
BadSports: Last Night Astros fans were reminded of a horrible truth.
In sports and life, Evil. Always wins.
When Aaron Judge launched a ball into the seats at Yankee Stadium and A.J. Finch overreacted by pulling his starter (who had, up until then performed admirably) from the game you knew this was not going to end well.
Up until that point Lance McCullers had performed admirably. His curve ball was working, he was placing his fastball, everything was going OK until one bad pitch, a hanging curve to new-media-darling Aaron Judge, and it all started to come undone. To copy an old saying "Judge hit that ball so hard it should have had a flight attendant on it serving drinks".
But that should have been OK. Because all six-foot seven inches of Aaron Judge does that. He hits home runs. And that particular home run was at the best possible time because the bases were empty, the Yankees were still down 4-1 in the 7th inning and I've a feeling McCullers would have had the gumption, and stuff, to close out the inning and turn the ball over to the bullpen to close out the 8th and 9th innings without the stress of men on 2nd and 3rd and nobody out. But it didn't happen that way.
Because Evil.Always.Wins.
Whether it's the Yankees in baseball, the Patriots in the NFL, the Warriors in the NBA, Chelsea in the Premier League, Alabama in college football or Kentucky in NCAA basketball evil reigns supreme.
Yes, there is a year when the plucky upstart rises above adversity and plucks the crown from the King, we've seen that recently with the Cubs, Cleveland, Villanova, Leicester City but eventually the sea finds its level and evil returns to the throne.
I've often heard people ask why the WWE is so popular, despite being scripted and generally un-PC. At heart it's because they understand that while good must constantly struggle, their wins can only be fleeting and temporary before they come crashing down in the inevitability of darkness.
Leicester City had a magical run to the top of the Premier League Table two years back, they've been languishing near the relegation zone ever since. The Cubs broke the curse of the Billy Goat, and are in the process of being dismantled by the mercenary band masquerading as the LA Dodgers. Villanova won, but Louisville rode Rick Pitino's wealthy coattails to power, and now Kentucky is taking over the throne. Clemson won last year, but Alabama is right back at it running rough-shod over a shoddy SEC while looking all the world like world beaters. If they can't do it the only slightly less evil Ohio State Buckeyes will usurp the crown.
That's just sports y'all. And life.
Evil.Always.Wins.
Which is why heading into today I have little faith in the Astros ability to pull a win out of this series, but a ton of hope. Because historic victories over evil have always occurred when one man stood in the breach and said enough! That man tomorrow afternoon will be one Dallas Kuechel.
Evil.Always.Wins.
Until they don't.
Go Astros.
When Aaron Judge launched a ball into the seats at Yankee Stadium and A.J. Finch overreacted by pulling his starter (who had, up until then performed admirably) from the game you knew this was not going to end well.
Up until that point Lance McCullers had performed admirably. His curve ball was working, he was placing his fastball, everything was going OK until one bad pitch, a hanging curve to new-media-darling Aaron Judge, and it all started to come undone. To copy an old saying "Judge hit that ball so hard it should have had a flight attendant on it serving drinks".
But that should have been OK. Because all six-foot seven inches of Aaron Judge does that. He hits home runs. And that particular home run was at the best possible time because the bases were empty, the Yankees were still down 4-1 in the 7th inning and I've a feeling McCullers would have had the gumption, and stuff, to close out the inning and turn the ball over to the bullpen to close out the 8th and 9th innings without the stress of men on 2nd and 3rd and nobody out. But it didn't happen that way.
Because Evil.Always.Wins.
Whether it's the Yankees in baseball, the Patriots in the NFL, the Warriors in the NBA, Chelsea in the Premier League, Alabama in college football or Kentucky in NCAA basketball evil reigns supreme.
Yes, there is a year when the plucky upstart rises above adversity and plucks the crown from the King, we've seen that recently with the Cubs, Cleveland, Villanova, Leicester City but eventually the sea finds its level and evil returns to the throne.
I've often heard people ask why the WWE is so popular, despite being scripted and generally un-PC. At heart it's because they understand that while good must constantly struggle, their wins can only be fleeting and temporary before they come crashing down in the inevitability of darkness.
Leicester City had a magical run to the top of the Premier League Table two years back, they've been languishing near the relegation zone ever since. The Cubs broke the curse of the Billy Goat, and are in the process of being dismantled by the mercenary band masquerading as the LA Dodgers. Villanova won, but Louisville rode Rick Pitino's wealthy coattails to power, and now Kentucky is taking over the throne. Clemson won last year, but Alabama is right back at it running rough-shod over a shoddy SEC while looking all the world like world beaters. If they can't do it the only slightly less evil Ohio State Buckeyes will usurp the crown.
That's just sports y'all. And life.
Evil.Always.Wins.
Which is why heading into today I have little faith in the Astros ability to pull a win out of this series, but a ton of hope. Because historic victories over evil have always occurred when one man stood in the breach and said enough! That man tomorrow afternoon will be one Dallas Kuechel.
Evil.Always.Wins.
Until they don't.
Go Astros.
Tuesday, October 17, 2017
College Football: Making Sense of the Week That Was (Or: Darn you Week 7)
For me, 'twas an ugly week. I said last week in the lead-in to my FIVE that I had given some thought of taking the week off. I didn't LOVE any of the games I was picking and, to be honest, I didn't even LIKE most of them. The results were telling. I went 1-4 here and 1-1 for Bet the Rent which lowers my record for the season to a pretty disgusting 11-17-2 for the FIVE and 20-21-2 for all selections.
That's bad.
It's embarrassingly bad.
It's "What in the hell is going on around here?" bad.
But, I own this. I never claimed to be an "expert" nor do I sell my picks (thank goodness) nor do I advise you follow along. I do this because I have fun doing it and it's a good release from my day job. It also makes college football more fun, for me. Hopefully you, as a reader, enjoy it to.
I will say that "SU" is a figure that I don't track but I'm doing fairly well there. I can pick winners OK, just not winners at the betting window.
But enough with that. Let's take a peek back.
Week 7 was a disaster for my top 10 as Clemson and Washington State lost on Friday, and then Auburn, Washington and San Diego State spit the bit on Saturday. It was carnage all around. In addition to those teams Navy fell from the ranks of the unbeaten and Texas Tech was upset by West Virginia. It was one of those weeks where you just shrug your shoulders say "sure" and move on.
It's also why we love college football so much. Because every team is flawed and every team can be beaten. Upsets like this happen. And while every tout in the world is going to tell you they "knew it was coming" that's crap, because no one knew that Syracuse over Clemson was coming and if you bet Syracuse it probably wasn't on the money line unless you are a fan of the Orange or were throwing up a Hail Mary bet. That's why there are called "upsets" after all.
With that in mind, here's my updated "top 10" which is unremarkable in the fact that it's not too far away from the AP Top 10, with just a few changes.
1. Alabama. While I don't think the Tide are unbeatable I do think that the SEC is so down this year that they might finish the season undefeated.
2. Georgia. Have looked like the 2nd best team in the SEC and the win over Notre Dame is looking better and better as time passes.
3. Penn State. Their test starts this week.
4. TCU. Clearly the class of the Big XII. The OU matchup makes or breaks their season.
5. Wisconsin. A relatively easy schedule puts them in the catbird seat for the B1G title game.
6. Clemson. Yes, the Syracuse loss hurt, but they still have a better resume than most.
7. Ohio State. Starting to get things ramped up now. Slotted just below Clemson because the Tigers have more quality wins.
8. Miami. Undefeated but it feels as if they're holding it together with spit and bailing wire.
9. Oklahoma State. The TCU loss is the only blemish on what is a fairly impressive resume.
10. University of Central Florida. Their matchup against USF could be the game of the week and probably deserves a Game Day visit.
Outside looking in: Oklahoma, USF, USC, Notre Dame
Conference Rankings:
1. ACC
2. B1G
3. Big XII
4. SEC
5. American
6. Pac-12
7. MAC
8. Mountain West
9. Conference USA
10. SunBelt
There will be a FIVE landing tomorrow, but there might not be one for week 9 because of real-life obligations.
That's bad.
It's embarrassingly bad.
It's "What in the hell is going on around here?" bad.
But, I own this. I never claimed to be an "expert" nor do I sell my picks (thank goodness) nor do I advise you follow along. I do this because I have fun doing it and it's a good release from my day job. It also makes college football more fun, for me. Hopefully you, as a reader, enjoy it to.
I will say that "SU" is a figure that I don't track but I'm doing fairly well there. I can pick winners OK, just not winners at the betting window.
But enough with that. Let's take a peek back.
Week 7 was a disaster for my top 10 as Clemson and Washington State lost on Friday, and then Auburn, Washington and San Diego State spit the bit on Saturday. It was carnage all around. In addition to those teams Navy fell from the ranks of the unbeaten and Texas Tech was upset by West Virginia. It was one of those weeks where you just shrug your shoulders say "sure" and move on.
It's also why we love college football so much. Because every team is flawed and every team can be beaten. Upsets like this happen. And while every tout in the world is going to tell you they "knew it was coming" that's crap, because no one knew that Syracuse over Clemson was coming and if you bet Syracuse it probably wasn't on the money line unless you are a fan of the Orange or were throwing up a Hail Mary bet. That's why there are called "upsets" after all.
With that in mind, here's my updated "top 10" which is unremarkable in the fact that it's not too far away from the AP Top 10, with just a few changes.
1. Alabama. While I don't think the Tide are unbeatable I do think that the SEC is so down this year that they might finish the season undefeated.
2. Georgia. Have looked like the 2nd best team in the SEC and the win over Notre Dame is looking better and better as time passes.
3. Penn State. Their test starts this week.
4. TCU. Clearly the class of the Big XII. The OU matchup makes or breaks their season.
5. Wisconsin. A relatively easy schedule puts them in the catbird seat for the B1G title game.
6. Clemson. Yes, the Syracuse loss hurt, but they still have a better resume than most.
7. Ohio State. Starting to get things ramped up now. Slotted just below Clemson because the Tigers have more quality wins.
8. Miami. Undefeated but it feels as if they're holding it together with spit and bailing wire.
9. Oklahoma State. The TCU loss is the only blemish on what is a fairly impressive resume.
10. University of Central Florida. Their matchup against USF could be the game of the week and probably deserves a Game Day visit.
Outside looking in: Oklahoma, USF, USC, Notre Dame
Conference Rankings:
1. ACC
2. B1G
3. Big XII
4. SEC
5. American
6. Pac-12
7. MAC
8. Mountain West
9. Conference USA
10. SunBelt
There will be a FIVE landing tomorrow, but there might not be one for week 9 because of real-life obligations.
Thursday, October 12, 2017
College Football: Week 7 - Beware the Soft-Gooey Center of Conference Play
Unless you live in the South (In Houston today the high is 91 degrees) the afternoons are getting cooler, the leaves are turning and Fall is stretching out and making itself comfortable. It's football weather, and there is nothing better than tailgating for your favorite team while sneaking a flask (or three) of warming bourbon, rum or whatever into the stadium for a 3rd QTR tipple.
Winning a conference game on the road is no easy thing, and several teams go in as big favorites to do just that. I'm not predicting too many upsets this weekend but it would not surprise me in the slightest to see on (or three) happen.
It's also Red RiverShootout Rivalry Showdown week as OU fans begin their annual pilgrimage to Dallas to gorge themselves on beer, fried food and (allegedly) set fire to Big Tex*. With that in mind, let's take a look at the games....
Texas State @ Louisiana - Lafayette (-13.5) T: 55.5
We kick off Thursday night football with two teams that are entrenched at the bottom of college football rankings. Whether you prefer CBS' bottom 25 or ESPN's Bottom 10 both teams either are in the lists weekly, or are hovering around the fringes. The thing is, neither team should be THAT bad. Both are in good college towns (San Marcos is what Austin used to be before the latter sunk into a fug of body odor and political consultants and Lafayette is in the heart of Cajun Country) that happen to be in a fertile recruiting area where even picking up 3-Star recruits and coaching them up should make you competitive. The loser of this game probably has a shot at winning the title of "worst team in the FBS" at year's end. Prediction: Texas State 9 ULaLa 17
Clemson (-21.5) @ Syracuse T: 56.5
Friday brings us two ACC schools whose programs are headed in different directions. Clemson is my top team in the Country while Syracuse is struggling to rebuild from shambles under 2nd-year head coach Dino Babers. It's Thursday, on ESPN so the Carrier Dome should be loud, for about 3 minutes. After that the Orange will be purple, black and blue. Prediction: Clemson 52 Syracuse 7
Washington State (-14.5) @ California T: 55.0
The late Friday night game gives us a very good football team coached by a very odd man in Washington State versus a California team that is......? To be honest I'm not sure. After starting the season 3-0 it was thought the Bears might have something but then we realized they beat UNC, Weber State and Ole Miss. Ugh. The Golden Bears are finishing up a brutal run of schedule where they played USC, Oregon, Washington and now Washington State in back to back to back to back games. They should be a tired team by this point. Prediction: Washington State 42 Cal 24
Florida State (-7) @ Duke T: 44.5
Did the Miami Hurricane break the Blue Devils? I'm starting to think so as this team looked awful against a fairly pedestrian Virginia team. The bad news for Duke is that the Seminoles seem to be on the cusp of "putting shit together" after a brutal start that saw starting QB Francios end up injured and a true Freshman with the build of a willow branch take his place. The Seminoles are sorting it out however as the win last week against the Hurricane has revealed. Prediction: Florida State 38 Duke 10
Texas Tech @ West Virginia (-3.5) T: 76
My gut feeling is that both of these teams are overrated by quite a bit.The Mountaineers have lost to every good team they have faced (Virginia Tech and TCU) while beating up on one FCS foe and two FBS bottom-feeders. Texas Tech on the other hand will point at their win over UH and jump up and down swearing to all who will listen that this proves they're "good". The problem with this logic is that the Cougars, at that time, were still figuring things out post Harvey and outside of a loss to Okie State, they have nothing else to hang their hats on. Finding out these two teams are smoke and mirrors could really hurt the currently inflated image the Big XII is enjoying. Prediction: Texas Tech 42 West Virginia 45 (I would take the over here)
TCU (-6) @ Kansas State T: 52
At the beginning of the season I stated that Kansas State was one of the more overrated teams in the country when they were ranked #19 in both the AP andStudent Information Director "coaches" polls At this point I'm not even all that confident saying that K-State is a mediocre team. They lost to a Texas team that I do think is pretty good but the inability to move the ball against Vanderbilt is troubling. This line is almost laughably low except for the fact hat Bill Snyder Family Stadium is a difficult place to play. It's also hard to win a conference game on the road. Prediction: TCU 27 K-State 13
Virginia (-4) @ North Carolina T: 50.5
It was not all that long ago that North Carolina head coach Larry Fedora was being held up as "the next coach to be given a job at a power school". Now there's serious talk that he could be done as the head man at North Carolina if he doesn't turn this mess around. There's also the question of how a so-called "quarterback guru" could find himself with so many bad ones. While I'm not entirely sure yet what to make of the Cavaliers I'm pretty sure Bronco Mendenhall is a good head coach. With that in mind I lean Virginia here. Prediction: Virginia 28 North Carolina 10
Northwestern (-4) @ Maryland T: 51.5
All things being equal, I'd take Maryland in a game between two teams that I projected to finish in the bottom half of their divisions within the B1G this year. That said, all things aren't equal and I think Maryland is going to be a very beat up team after taking a walloping at the hands of Ohio State last week. Yes, Northwestern played Penn State, but they hung with the Nittany Lions for 3 quarters, which should give them some confidence. Prediction: Northwestern 24 Maryland 20.
Oklahoma (-7.5) @ Texas - Austin T: 65.5
Ah the Texas State Fair, aisles and aisles of cheap beer, fried food and a big dallop of rivalry football smack dab in the middle. Even though I have no rooting interest, this game is one of my favorite to watch every year. You have two teams that genuinely do not like each other playing for bragging rights and a shiny gold cowboy hat that looks good on no one when they inevitably put it on. Both teams are fairly even on talent, but OU has a much better QB, both teams appear to be even on coaching but OU might, just might, come in angry for this one after getting embarrassed by Iowa State last week, at home. Prediction: OU 35 UT - Austin 20
Auburn (-7) @ LSU T: 44
After beating Florida last week the alumni have stopped clawing at Coach Orgeron's heels, for now. Beating Auburn would go a long way to silencing them for the rest of the season. I think Auburn's defense is nastier, and their offense is slightly less dysfunctional. That said it's hard to walk into Baton Rouge and escape with a win, unless you're Troy, on homecoming and LSU pays you almost a Million to do so. Prediction: Auburn 17 LSU 16
Texas A&M @ Florida (-3.5) T: 51.5
I'm probably not going to watch this game for one reason: Florida's "swamp green" uniforms are evil and a pox on football and they should be punished for that. That said, I think the Aggies need this game desperately if Sumlin is going to keep his job after the season. Given that I said I think he won't be the head coach at Aggie after this year, you can guess which way I'm leaning. A bigger problem for the SEC is that this is the second game that's got #gosec terrible game between two sub-par teams written all over it. Prediction: aTm 10 Florida 16
Washington (-18) @ ASU T: 57
In between feuds with ESPN and Kirk Herbstreit over the relative weakness of their schedule, Washington has been just as good as I thought they would be so far this year. Outside of an opening week performance against Rutgers (which, they still won) they've handled everything in front of them fairly easily. Arizona State meanwhile has been up against much tougher, and have struggled to a 2-3 record while doing it. Fans of Rice University and the Marching Owl Band will be happy to know that this is going to be another stop on the Todd Graham farewell tour. Prediction: Washington 42 ASU 13
Oregon @ Stanford (-10.5) T: 58.5
This game is the "first game out" of my FIVE. I really like the Ducks here at that line but I'm not entirely sure about them with QB Hebert out. Stanford's offense does one thing really well, that's run the ball with Love. When SDSU shut that down the Cardinal were all out of answers, will Oregon be able to ask the right questions? Not this year methinks. Prediction: Oregon 24 Stanford 34
Utah @ USC (-12.5) T: 53
You won't hear a lot of people say it but these two teams are awfully similar. Utah was cruising along undefeated until getting upended by Stanford. There were warning signs of this however when they barely beat a bad Arizona team the week before. USC was cruising along undefeated until being beat by Washington State. There were warning signs of this however when they barely beat a bad Texas team a couple of weeks before. This game is huge for both team's plans to make the Pac-12 Championship Game as the loser is out barring something silly happening. I typically trend toward the team with the better QB when all things are equal. Prediction: Utah 17 USC 31
Games involving teams I have some connection to.
Houston (-13.5) @ Tulsa T: 66
If head coach Phillip Montgomery doesn't turn this Tulsa mess around rapidly he's going to go from the top of the P5 candidate pile to coaching for his job next year. Houston has bounced back from that confusing loss to Texas Tech by finding a quarterback in Kyle Postma and looking much better. The next two weeks after this feature Memphis and USF for the Cougars so they better not sleep on the Golden Hurricane. Prediction: Houston 24 Tulsa 7
UNLV Desert Rug Rats @ Air Force (-7.5) T: 46.5
After being outclassed by SDSU last week UNLV heads to the Air Force Academy to play a team that's smarting from a hard-fought loss to the Naval Academy. This is going to be a tough game for the Desert Rug Rats to win and could see them drop to 2-4. The good news is the schedule gets much easier after this and an 8-4 finish with a bowl bid is still very possible. Air Force has lost out on the Commander in Chief's trophy and has yet to beat an FBS team, it's only win coming over FCS member VMI. Call me insane, I like the Rug Rats here. Prediction: Desert Rug Rats 35 Air Force 31
And Finally......
Michigan (-8) @ Indiana T: 56.5
OK, OK, I know. You're not laughing with me you're laughing at me. Last week's loss to Michigan State was a gut punch that I probably saw coming, I even stated as much when writing up the game. That said, I chose to be optimistic and pick Michigan to win over State. The challenge for the Wolverines this week is to not let Michigan State beat them twice. I am more frightened of this game than any other I've been worried about this season. All season long I've hated Michigan's lines. This week is no different.
Prediction: GoBlue 24 Indiana 23.
Outside of the South, it should be a gorgeous weekend. Take advantage of it, on Sunday. Thursday, Friday and Saturday there's football watching to do.
Good luck.
Winning a conference game on the road is no easy thing, and several teams go in as big favorites to do just that. I'm not predicting too many upsets this weekend but it would not surprise me in the slightest to see on (or three) happen.
It's also Red River
Texas State @ Louisiana - Lafayette (-13.5) T: 55.5
We kick off Thursday night football with two teams that are entrenched at the bottom of college football rankings. Whether you prefer CBS' bottom 25 or ESPN's Bottom 10 both teams either are in the lists weekly, or are hovering around the fringes. The thing is, neither team should be THAT bad. Both are in good college towns (San Marcos is what Austin used to be before the latter sunk into a fug of body odor and political consultants and Lafayette is in the heart of Cajun Country) that happen to be in a fertile recruiting area where even picking up 3-Star recruits and coaching them up should make you competitive. The loser of this game probably has a shot at winning the title of "worst team in the FBS" at year's end. Prediction: Texas State 9 ULaLa 17
Clemson (-21.5) @ Syracuse T: 56.5
Friday brings us two ACC schools whose programs are headed in different directions. Clemson is my top team in the Country while Syracuse is struggling to rebuild from shambles under 2nd-year head coach Dino Babers. It's Thursday, on ESPN so the Carrier Dome should be loud, for about 3 minutes. After that the Orange will be purple, black and blue. Prediction: Clemson 52 Syracuse 7
Washington State (-14.5) @ California T: 55.0
The late Friday night game gives us a very good football team coached by a very odd man in Washington State versus a California team that is......? To be honest I'm not sure. After starting the season 3-0 it was thought the Bears might have something but then we realized they beat UNC, Weber State and Ole Miss. Ugh. The Golden Bears are finishing up a brutal run of schedule where they played USC, Oregon, Washington and now Washington State in back to back to back to back games. They should be a tired team by this point. Prediction: Washington State 42 Cal 24
Florida State (-7) @ Duke T: 44.5
Did the Miami Hurricane break the Blue Devils? I'm starting to think so as this team looked awful against a fairly pedestrian Virginia team. The bad news for Duke is that the Seminoles seem to be on the cusp of "putting shit together" after a brutal start that saw starting QB Francios end up injured and a true Freshman with the build of a willow branch take his place. The Seminoles are sorting it out however as the win last week against the Hurricane has revealed. Prediction: Florida State 38 Duke 10
Texas Tech @ West Virginia (-3.5) T: 76
My gut feeling is that both of these teams are overrated by quite a bit.The Mountaineers have lost to every good team they have faced (Virginia Tech and TCU) while beating up on one FCS foe and two FBS bottom-feeders. Texas Tech on the other hand will point at their win over UH and jump up and down swearing to all who will listen that this proves they're "good". The problem with this logic is that the Cougars, at that time, were still figuring things out post Harvey and outside of a loss to Okie State, they have nothing else to hang their hats on. Finding out these two teams are smoke and mirrors could really hurt the currently inflated image the Big XII is enjoying. Prediction: Texas Tech 42 West Virginia 45 (I would take the over here)
TCU (-6) @ Kansas State T: 52
At the beginning of the season I stated that Kansas State was one of the more overrated teams in the country when they were ranked #19 in both the AP and
Virginia (-4) @ North Carolina T: 50.5
It was not all that long ago that North Carolina head coach Larry Fedora was being held up as "the next coach to be given a job at a power school". Now there's serious talk that he could be done as the head man at North Carolina if he doesn't turn this mess around. There's also the question of how a so-called "quarterback guru" could find himself with so many bad ones. While I'm not entirely sure yet what to make of the Cavaliers I'm pretty sure Bronco Mendenhall is a good head coach. With that in mind I lean Virginia here. Prediction: Virginia 28 North Carolina 10
Northwestern (-4) @ Maryland T: 51.5
All things being equal, I'd take Maryland in a game between two teams that I projected to finish in the bottom half of their divisions within the B1G this year. That said, all things aren't equal and I think Maryland is going to be a very beat up team after taking a walloping at the hands of Ohio State last week. Yes, Northwestern played Penn State, but they hung with the Nittany Lions for 3 quarters, which should give them some confidence. Prediction: Northwestern 24 Maryland 20.
Oklahoma (-7.5) @ Texas - Austin T: 65.5
Ah the Texas State Fair, aisles and aisles of cheap beer, fried food and a big dallop of rivalry football smack dab in the middle. Even though I have no rooting interest, this game is one of my favorite to watch every year. You have two teams that genuinely do not like each other playing for bragging rights and a shiny gold cowboy hat that looks good on no one when they inevitably put it on. Both teams are fairly even on talent, but OU has a much better QB, both teams appear to be even on coaching but OU might, just might, come in angry for this one after getting embarrassed by Iowa State last week, at home. Prediction: OU 35 UT - Austin 20
Auburn (-7) @ LSU T: 44
After beating Florida last week the alumni have stopped clawing at Coach Orgeron's heels, for now. Beating Auburn would go a long way to silencing them for the rest of the season. I think Auburn's defense is nastier, and their offense is slightly less dysfunctional. That said it's hard to walk into Baton Rouge and escape with a win, unless you're Troy, on homecoming and LSU pays you almost a Million to do so. Prediction: Auburn 17 LSU 16
Texas A&M @ Florida (-3.5) T: 51.5
I'm probably not going to watch this game for one reason: Florida's "swamp green" uniforms are evil and a pox on football and they should be punished for that. That said, I think the Aggies need this game desperately if Sumlin is going to keep his job after the season. Given that I said I think he won't be the head coach at Aggie after this year, you can guess which way I'm leaning. A bigger problem for the SEC is that this is the second game that's got #gosec terrible game between two sub-par teams written all over it. Prediction: aTm 10 Florida 16
Washington (-18) @ ASU T: 57
In between feuds with ESPN and Kirk Herbstreit over the relative weakness of their schedule, Washington has been just as good as I thought they would be so far this year. Outside of an opening week performance against Rutgers (which, they still won) they've handled everything in front of them fairly easily. Arizona State meanwhile has been up against much tougher, and have struggled to a 2-3 record while doing it. Fans of Rice University and the Marching Owl Band will be happy to know that this is going to be another stop on the Todd Graham farewell tour. Prediction: Washington 42 ASU 13
Oregon @ Stanford (-10.5) T: 58.5
This game is the "first game out" of my FIVE. I really like the Ducks here at that line but I'm not entirely sure about them with QB Hebert out. Stanford's offense does one thing really well, that's run the ball with Love. When SDSU shut that down the Cardinal were all out of answers, will Oregon be able to ask the right questions? Not this year methinks. Prediction: Oregon 24 Stanford 34
Utah @ USC (-12.5) T: 53
You won't hear a lot of people say it but these two teams are awfully similar. Utah was cruising along undefeated until getting upended by Stanford. There were warning signs of this however when they barely beat a bad Arizona team the week before. USC was cruising along undefeated until being beat by Washington State. There were warning signs of this however when they barely beat a bad Texas team a couple of weeks before. This game is huge for both team's plans to make the Pac-12 Championship Game as the loser is out barring something silly happening. I typically trend toward the team with the better QB when all things are equal. Prediction: Utah 17 USC 31
Games involving teams I have some connection to.
Houston (-13.5) @ Tulsa T: 66
If head coach Phillip Montgomery doesn't turn this Tulsa mess around rapidly he's going to go from the top of the P5 candidate pile to coaching for his job next year. Houston has bounced back from that confusing loss to Texas Tech by finding a quarterback in Kyle Postma and looking much better. The next two weeks after this feature Memphis and USF for the Cougars so they better not sleep on the Golden Hurricane. Prediction: Houston 24 Tulsa 7
UNLV Desert Rug Rats @ Air Force (-7.5) T: 46.5
After being outclassed by SDSU last week UNLV heads to the Air Force Academy to play a team that's smarting from a hard-fought loss to the Naval Academy. This is going to be a tough game for the Desert Rug Rats to win and could see them drop to 2-4. The good news is the schedule gets much easier after this and an 8-4 finish with a bowl bid is still very possible. Air Force has lost out on the Commander in Chief's trophy and has yet to beat an FBS team, it's only win coming over FCS member VMI. Call me insane, I like the Rug Rats here. Prediction: Desert Rug Rats 35 Air Force 31
And Finally......
Michigan (-8) @ Indiana T: 56.5
OK, OK, I know. You're not laughing with me you're laughing at me. Last week's loss to Michigan State was a gut punch that I probably saw coming, I even stated as much when writing up the game. That said, I chose to be optimistic and pick Michigan to win over State. The challenge for the Wolverines this week is to not let Michigan State beat them twice. I am more frightened of this game than any other I've been worried about this season. All season long I've hated Michigan's lines. This week is no different.
Prediction: GoBlue 24 Indiana 23.
Outside of the South, it should be a gorgeous weekend. Take advantage of it, on Sunday. Thursday, Friday and Saturday there's football watching to do.
Good luck.
Wednesday, October 11, 2017
US Men's Soccer: It's time to burn it all down. #BadSports
It wasn't just that the US Men's National Team lost 2-1 to Trinidad & Tobago last night, it was the lackluster manner in which they did it.
It's that USMNT Head Coach Bruce Arena said "no excuses" and then made several.
It's that people are actually asking if appealing a Panamanian goal is viable.
It's that US Soccer still doesn't get it.
And that's the problem. If an entity rots from the head then it's time for US Soccer President Sunil Gulati to do the honorable thing and step down. In fact, he should have done so immediately after the loss.
But soccer in the US, and the world to be honest, is a clubby atmosphere at the top in most cases and little things like wins and losses only matter to the fans. Barring arrest, and sometimes not even then, the leadership in world soccer is more entrenched than both sides in WWI.
What US Men's soccer needs right now is a full house-cleaning. They need to blow the whole thing up, break up the foundation and start fresh. With all of the money, resources and talent that the US has at its disposal failing to qualify for the World Cup in a 2nd Tier qualifying group (CONCACAF is not as weak as people say, but it's certainly not top-flight) is unacceptable.
It's so bad right now that fans are griping at Mexico for not doing the US a solid. Mexico, a team that was down four years ago during qualification but found a way, a team that has firmly planted itself atop CONCACAF with no legitimate threat to it's crown.
Yes, the USA won the CONCACAF Gold Cup but that's a tournament that few take seriously outside the US. Mexico had other, bigger designs, and a plan to get there. The US has always failed to understand that thinking, incorrectly, that winning local tournaments are a big deal.
In retrospect we should have seen this coming. During qualification for the last two Olympics the US Junior Men's National Team failed. Many of the same players that couldn't get that job done are on the senior roster today. And while it's easy to blame Klinsmann or Arena for this (and they share a lot of blame) the entirety of the US Soccer system is the real culprit.
It starts with the Junior leagues, where kids are taught a clinical game by coaches who, in some cases, don't know anything more about the sport than they learned from TV or in a workshop. There are high school coaches who's only knowledge of soccer is that they have read a book. I'm not kidding. And what has US Soccer done to address this? *crickets*
Pay to play will suck up a lot of the oxygen (rightly so) but, as the linked article states, it is just a symptom of the overall disease that is US Soccer right now. But in the US we're so worried about kids earning a soccer income that we outlaw the very thing that could make us more competitive. We also do a horrid job identifying talent, another systemic problem whose poison flows down from the top.
So, we don't find the best players, we don't coach the game correctly and then we take steps to ensure that US Soccer is one of the least diverse sports available. The result?
When Major League Soccer formed a horrible decision was made. It was a decision to administer the league like the National Football League, which ignored the successful model of the rest of the world (Promotion/Relegation) and removed any incentive for the owners to consistently produce a winning product. They also decided to play on a different professional schedule than the rest of the world, which certainly hurts come qualification time.
There's also the reality that MLS is not doing a very good job developing top-flight players at the international level. All of the truly great USMNT players in the last 20 years began their careers playing overseas, before some of them came back to the MLS and stagnated.
Clearly then the rot goes from top to bottom. Sunil Gulati should be the first to go, followed by Arena, followed by several more. The entire youth system needs to be scrapped and rebuilt from the bottom up, College Soccer needs reform, as does the MLS.
The problem is, I don't think this will ever happen.
Already the excuses are being made that "The US was just 'between generations' of players and what we saw were the unfortunate results. The MLS is making money and there's no way the cabal of owners is gong to OK a system where they might have to be responsible for their poor decisions by getting shunted to the USSL for example, and Sunil Gulati will probably survive with his job.
Why? Because that's the way US Soccer is. Both US Soccer and a large portion of the media who cover it are a giant echo chamber that refuses to even listen to dissenting opinion. All of the players who act as commentators were players on the team and many are still beholden to the people in power. There is no onus to change as long as the golden goose continues to lay golden eggs, even if those eggs are getting smaller and smaller as time goes on.
There will be no meaningful change, and in four years from now the USMNT will try again, possibly with new players and a new head coach. They might even succeed this time, and might accidentally make it out of the group rounds. They'll lose in the Quarterfinals however because once there they will have to face a legitimate team.
If nothing changes that's the ceiling. What we're seeing now is the floor.
That alone should depress the hell out of you if you're a fan of the team.
On the bright side, I can start rooting for Spain from the jump in 2018.
It's that USMNT Head Coach Bruce Arena said "no excuses" and then made several.
It's that people are actually asking if appealing a Panamanian goal is viable.
It's that US Soccer still doesn't get it.
And that's the problem. If an entity rots from the head then it's time for US Soccer President Sunil Gulati to do the honorable thing and step down. In fact, he should have done so immediately after the loss.
But soccer in the US, and the world to be honest, is a clubby atmosphere at the top in most cases and little things like wins and losses only matter to the fans. Barring arrest, and sometimes not even then, the leadership in world soccer is more entrenched than both sides in WWI.
What US Men's soccer needs right now is a full house-cleaning. They need to blow the whole thing up, break up the foundation and start fresh. With all of the money, resources and talent that the US has at its disposal failing to qualify for the World Cup in a 2nd Tier qualifying group (CONCACAF is not as weak as people say, but it's certainly not top-flight) is unacceptable.
It's so bad right now that fans are griping at Mexico for not doing the US a solid. Mexico, a team that was down four years ago during qualification but found a way, a team that has firmly planted itself atop CONCACAF with no legitimate threat to it's crown.
Yes, the USA won the CONCACAF Gold Cup but that's a tournament that few take seriously outside the US. Mexico had other, bigger designs, and a plan to get there. The US has always failed to understand that thinking, incorrectly, that winning local tournaments are a big deal.
In retrospect we should have seen this coming. During qualification for the last two Olympics the US Junior Men's National Team failed. Many of the same players that couldn't get that job done are on the senior roster today. And while it's easy to blame Klinsmann or Arena for this (and they share a lot of blame) the entirety of the US Soccer system is the real culprit.
It starts with the Junior leagues, where kids are taught a clinical game by coaches who, in some cases, don't know anything more about the sport than they learned from TV or in a workshop. There are high school coaches who's only knowledge of soccer is that they have read a book. I'm not kidding. And what has US Soccer done to address this? *crickets*
Pay to play will suck up a lot of the oxygen (rightly so) but, as the linked article states, it is just a symptom of the overall disease that is US Soccer right now. But in the US we're so worried about kids earning a soccer income that we outlaw the very thing that could make us more competitive. We also do a horrid job identifying talent, another systemic problem whose poison flows down from the top.
So, we don't find the best players, we don't coach the game correctly and then we take steps to ensure that US Soccer is one of the least diverse sports available. The result?
When Major League Soccer formed a horrible decision was made. It was a decision to administer the league like the National Football League, which ignored the successful model of the rest of the world (Promotion/Relegation) and removed any incentive for the owners to consistently produce a winning product. They also decided to play on a different professional schedule than the rest of the world, which certainly hurts come qualification time.
There's also the reality that MLS is not doing a very good job developing top-flight players at the international level. All of the truly great USMNT players in the last 20 years began their careers playing overseas, before some of them came back to the MLS and stagnated.
Clearly then the rot goes from top to bottom. Sunil Gulati should be the first to go, followed by Arena, followed by several more. The entire youth system needs to be scrapped and rebuilt from the bottom up, College Soccer needs reform, as does the MLS.
The problem is, I don't think this will ever happen.
Already the excuses are being made that "The US was just 'between generations' of players and what we saw were the unfortunate results. The MLS is making money and there's no way the cabal of owners is gong to OK a system where they might have to be responsible for their poor decisions by getting shunted to the USSL for example, and Sunil Gulati will probably survive with his job.
Why? Because that's the way US Soccer is. Both US Soccer and a large portion of the media who cover it are a giant echo chamber that refuses to even listen to dissenting opinion. All of the players who act as commentators were players on the team and many are still beholden to the people in power. There is no onus to change as long as the golden goose continues to lay golden eggs, even if those eggs are getting smaller and smaller as time goes on.
There will be no meaningful change, and in four years from now the USMNT will try again, possibly with new players and a new head coach. They might even succeed this time, and might accidentally make it out of the group rounds. They'll lose in the Quarterfinals however because once there they will have to face a legitimate team.
If nothing changes that's the ceiling. What we're seeing now is the floor.
That alone should depress the hell out of you if you're a fan of the team.
On the bright side, I can start rooting for Spain from the jump in 2018.
College Football: The Week 7 FIVE
At this point of the season we've hit a little rut. Yes, last week we had a winner going 3-2, but the semi-bad, and bad beats start to discourage even the most foolish of betters. (hi) There was a point, when looking at these games, I almost said forget it and lets just take a week off. But we're here for you, and what about all of those who (smartly) fade my plays. What would THEY do?
So, for the people, and into a fairly interesting slate of games, we soldier on....
Standard disclaimer time: These are picks, made by an accountant. Buyer beware. Also, the lines are as current as I can get them at the time of publication according to information gleaned from the Westgate Superbook. THEY WILL MOVE by game time. This is just the way it is.
1. Navy @ Memphis (-3.5) T: 75.5
This FEELS like the battle for the title of "third best team in the AAC" behind UCF and USF, sorry Houston. Navy is one a role and is undefeated, their best win (in a mile surprise) looking to be Tulane early in the season. While Memphis only has a loss to UCF which does not a tragedy make. My question: Will anyone be able to play defense in this game? Pick: Over 75.5 (I feel pretty good about this for about 4 more points)
2. Texas San-Antonio (-3) @ North Texas T: 58.5
Probably the only thing you know about UNT football is that they sent a cease and desist letter to ESPN regarding the latter calling Michigan State "Mean Green" which is North Texas' official team name. They are a good team that constantly seems to hang in against better teams. Head to head UTSA lost to Southern Miss at home while North Texas beat USM at home. Those in the "know" will be leaning UNT, I still think UTSA is the better team. I also think that even good teams have bad weeks. Pick: UT-SA to cover -3 (I would wait and see if the line moves UNT's way, as I think it might before kick-off)
3. UCLA (-1) @ Arizona T: 52.5
This line opened at -1.5 Arizona, and I would have liked to publish this then but since I always run these on Wednesday, and try not to run stale lines at the time of publication, I held off. OF COURSE the line corrected to the better team. That said, I still think there's leeway in the current line toward UCLA. Pick: UCLA to cover -1 (You can probably feel pretty good up to -3)
4. Boise State @ SDSU (-7) T: 45.5
Even though they've fallen off a bit, Boise State is still at 3-2 and still undefeated in the Mountain West. But SDSU is head and shoulders the best MW team by a long way in my opinion. Plus, the game is not being played on the Smurf Turf where Boise is much better. I think the physical, run-the-ball-down-your-throat style of the Aztecs dominate. Pick: SDSU to cover -7 (I wouldn't go much higher though. If it moves to 7.5 back off)
5. South Carolina @ Tennessee (-3) T: 49
Tennessee head coach Butch Jones is probably coaching for his job in this game. After the embarrassing 41-0 loss at home versus Georgia the team appears to be in free fall. I'm expecting a disaster this week. Pick: South Carolina to win on the ML.
The same as last week, the College football week starts tonight with some Wednesday Evening #FunBelt football....
South Alabama @ Troy (-16) T: 49.5
Troy is a fave-rave of the betting folks after beating LSU at home, two weeks ago. They face a South Alabama team that's been somewhat of a disappointment so far this year. I expect the Trojans to be on cruise mode until the end of the season, when they travel to Arkansas State to play a game that should decide the winner of the Sun Belt conference. Pick: Troy to cover -16
Prediction: USA 3 Troy 42
Enjoy the games.
So, for the people, and into a fairly interesting slate of games, we soldier on....
Standard disclaimer time: These are picks, made by an accountant. Buyer beware. Also, the lines are as current as I can get them at the time of publication according to information gleaned from the Westgate Superbook. THEY WILL MOVE by game time. This is just the way it is.
1. Navy @ Memphis (-3.5) T: 75.5
This FEELS like the battle for the title of "third best team in the AAC" behind UCF and USF, sorry Houston. Navy is one a role and is undefeated, their best win (in a mile surprise) looking to be Tulane early in the season. While Memphis only has a loss to UCF which does not a tragedy make. My question: Will anyone be able to play defense in this game? Pick: Over 75.5 (I feel pretty good about this for about 4 more points)
2. Texas San-Antonio (-3) @ North Texas T: 58.5
Probably the only thing you know about UNT football is that they sent a cease and desist letter to ESPN regarding the latter calling Michigan State "Mean Green" which is North Texas' official team name. They are a good team that constantly seems to hang in against better teams. Head to head UTSA lost to Southern Miss at home while North Texas beat USM at home. Those in the "know" will be leaning UNT, I still think UTSA is the better team. I also think that even good teams have bad weeks. Pick: UT-SA to cover -3 (I would wait and see if the line moves UNT's way, as I think it might before kick-off)
3. UCLA (-1) @ Arizona T: 52.5
This line opened at -1.5 Arizona, and I would have liked to publish this then but since I always run these on Wednesday, and try not to run stale lines at the time of publication, I held off. OF COURSE the line corrected to the better team. That said, I still think there's leeway in the current line toward UCLA. Pick: UCLA to cover -1 (You can probably feel pretty good up to -3)
4. Boise State @ SDSU (-7) T: 45.5
Even though they've fallen off a bit, Boise State is still at 3-2 and still undefeated in the Mountain West. But SDSU is head and shoulders the best MW team by a long way in my opinion. Plus, the game is not being played on the Smurf Turf where Boise is much better. I think the physical, run-the-ball-down-your-throat style of the Aztecs dominate. Pick: SDSU to cover -7 (I wouldn't go much higher though. If it moves to 7.5 back off)
5. South Carolina @ Tennessee (-3) T: 49
Tennessee head coach Butch Jones is probably coaching for his job in this game. After the embarrassing 41-0 loss at home versus Georgia the team appears to be in free fall. I'm expecting a disaster this week. Pick: South Carolina to win on the ML.
The same as last week, the College football week starts tonight with some Wednesday Evening #FunBelt football....
South Alabama @ Troy (-16) T: 49.5
Troy is a fave-rave of the betting folks after beating LSU at home, two weeks ago. They face a South Alabama team that's been somewhat of a disappointment so far this year. I expect the Trojans to be on cruise mode until the end of the season, when they travel to Arkansas State to play a game that should decide the winner of the Sun Belt conference. Pick: Troy to cover -16
Prediction: USA 3 Troy 42
Enjoy the games.
Tuesday, October 10, 2017
College Football: My Inaugural Top 10.
After six weeks of play I think we're starting to get a better idea of where these teams sit.
Here we go:
1. Clemson - The defending CFP Champions appear to have not missed a beat despite having to reload in several key positions. They still have the best defensive front seven in football and a ton of talent. They also have the best resume. Easy number one for me.
2. Alabama - The Tide have done nothing wrong, but they haven't done anything spectacular either. Yes, they've handled their opposition but they really haven't played anyone yet. We thought the Florida State game was big but the Seminoles have deep issues.
3. Georgia - The Bulldogs are the 2nd best team in the SEC and actually have a legitimate chance to run the table and, surprisingly, beat Alabama. The Bulldog defense is nasty and the win, on the road, to Notre Dame is looking better and better.
4. Texas Christian University - Wait, what about Penn State you're saying? Agreed, I think the two teams are about even but good wins, including at Stillwater and over WVU last weekend, give them the slightest of edges.
5. Penn State - The meat of the season is right in front of the Nittany Lions, they have an off-week and then welcome Michigan before going on the road to face Ohio State and Michigan State respectively. IF they survive that gauntlet unscathed they could potentially jump Alabama for 2nd place.
6. Wisconsin - A relatively easy schedule provides the Badgers with the most likely path to the B1G championship and possible CFP inclusion should they win there. A big plus for them is that they avoid Ohio State, Michigan State and Penn State this year.
7. Washington State - This is probably the team that many will say I have overrated, but they have two quality wins over USC and at Oregon respectively, the latter of which they were never seriously threatened with losing. Stanford and the Apple Cup will be HUGE for Wazzu.
8. Ohio State - Yes, I know, they lost to Oklahoma at home a few weeks ago, but they still have a disgusting amount of talent and they are starting to look like that old Buckeye team that is getting things rolling. They're also aided by the fact that their two toughest remaining games, Penn State and Michigan State, are at home.
9. Washington - I like the Huskies a lot, but I also think that we're not quite sure what this team really is. I've spent a lot of late-nights up watching them in #Pac12AfterDark games and I think they're going to shoot up the board later in the season. For now though I think 9 is about right.
10. San Diego State - Here's the problem for SDSU, while I think we're seeing that the Stanford win was solid, I don't see any games coming up on their schedule that helps them build their case to jump higher. This could be their peak, unless teams in front of, and slightly behind them, fall.
Just outside looking in: Auburn, Miami, UCF
My rankings are based on a couple of factors. 1st: quality of wins in games played. 2nd. My eye test. At this point I've seen all of these teams play multiple times. Going undefeated is important, but it's not the only factor. This is why Ohio State ranks above both Washington and SDSU despite having a loss to OU on their record.
I also don't buy-in entirely to the "power conference" myth. If you're going to say that a Power 5 school beating Stanford is a big win then it's equally as big for a Group of 5 school like SDSU, who has at least a good of a resume right now as any team in the top 10.
What say you?
Here we go:
1. Clemson - The defending CFP Champions appear to have not missed a beat despite having to reload in several key positions. They still have the best defensive front seven in football and a ton of talent. They also have the best resume. Easy number one for me.
2. Alabama - The Tide have done nothing wrong, but they haven't done anything spectacular either. Yes, they've handled their opposition but they really haven't played anyone yet. We thought the Florida State game was big but the Seminoles have deep issues.
3. Georgia - The Bulldogs are the 2nd best team in the SEC and actually have a legitimate chance to run the table and, surprisingly, beat Alabama. The Bulldog defense is nasty and the win, on the road, to Notre Dame is looking better and better.
4. Texas Christian University - Wait, what about Penn State you're saying? Agreed, I think the two teams are about even but good wins, including at Stillwater and over WVU last weekend, give them the slightest of edges.
5. Penn State - The meat of the season is right in front of the Nittany Lions, they have an off-week and then welcome Michigan before going on the road to face Ohio State and Michigan State respectively. IF they survive that gauntlet unscathed they could potentially jump Alabama for 2nd place.
6. Wisconsin - A relatively easy schedule provides the Badgers with the most likely path to the B1G championship and possible CFP inclusion should they win there. A big plus for them is that they avoid Ohio State, Michigan State and Penn State this year.
7. Washington State - This is probably the team that many will say I have overrated, but they have two quality wins over USC and at Oregon respectively, the latter of which they were never seriously threatened with losing. Stanford and the Apple Cup will be HUGE for Wazzu.
8. Ohio State - Yes, I know, they lost to Oklahoma at home a few weeks ago, but they still have a disgusting amount of talent and they are starting to look like that old Buckeye team that is getting things rolling. They're also aided by the fact that their two toughest remaining games, Penn State and Michigan State, are at home.
9. Washington - I like the Huskies a lot, but I also think that we're not quite sure what this team really is. I've spent a lot of late-nights up watching them in #Pac12AfterDark games and I think they're going to shoot up the board later in the season. For now though I think 9 is about right.
10. San Diego State - Here's the problem for SDSU, while I think we're seeing that the Stanford win was solid, I don't see any games coming up on their schedule that helps them build their case to jump higher. This could be their peak, unless teams in front of, and slightly behind them, fall.
Just outside looking in: Auburn, Miami, UCF
My rankings are based on a couple of factors. 1st: quality of wins in games played. 2nd. My eye test. At this point I've seen all of these teams play multiple times. Going undefeated is important, but it's not the only factor. This is why Ohio State ranks above both Washington and SDSU despite having a loss to OU on their record.
I also don't buy-in entirely to the "power conference" myth. If you're going to say that a Power 5 school beating Stanford is a big win then it's equally as big for a Group of 5 school like SDSU, who has at least a good of a resume right now as any team in the top 10.
What say you?
Monday, October 9, 2017
College Football: The Weekend that was. (Week 6 Recap)
Lo, I am defeated.
Ah Michigan, just when you think things are on the upswing, Michigan State comes to town and you mysteriously decide to have your quarterback continue to throw the ball to them. This gave the Spartan offense too many short fields to work with and resulted in a 14-10 loss that was soul-sucking for Wolverine fans.
Now, some perspective.....
No, it's NOT time to call for Harbaugh to be fired and no, it's not correct to say that he's overrated. Despite all of this there will be unsteady fans and gleeful media types who are going to sift through the ashes of unrealistic hopes and take some type of perverse pleasure in continuing to kick the corpse.
Yes, as many have pointed out, the records of Harbaugh and Hoke, to this point in their tenures, are exactly even at 24-7, in fact, Hoke actually went 2-4 in the rivalry games while Harbaugh went 1-5 in the same. The rumors of Wolverine dominance were way overblown.
But...
Can anyone seriously argue that the program as a whole is not 100% better than where it was under Hoke? Recruiting is better, the talent is better, the energy is better, nearly everything is better except for the fact that beating Sparty and Buckeye continues to be an elusive dream. So as I sat Saturday night and downed another Bourbon and watched the season slip away, I was struck by the fact that it did hurt. Unlike the Hoke era where I had lost hope, I did still hold out hope that the defense would do it, that the offense would somehow make a play to turn it around, that Eddie McDoom would....oops.
I will admit to being slightly mystified as to why Harbaugh, another in the long-line of "quarterback gurus" in coaching cannot seem to find a competent QB to run this offense. I'm also not entirely sold on the offensive line, which is more sieve than solid and seems to have trouble both in the run game and passing game against even mediocre schools. And the play calling, my goodness. Why do you continually try and throw the ball into a monsoon? Especially when you consider the team is loaded at Running Back and should have been able to just plow down Sparty to score at least one more TD.
Next week is Indiana, which should be a win, before Penn State and Saquon Barkley come to town. Looking at the remaining schedule it appears that, barring a big upset somewhere, 8-4 is the likely finish, and some minor bowl game against some Group of 5 school that's going to be way more fired up than we. Currently the team is ranked #17 in the most recent round of polls. I think that's about right. It should be better however.
Moving on....
Last week the FIVE went 3-2 which improved my season record to 10-13-2. For the Bet the Rent Newsletter I went 1-1, bringing my season record to 8-3, for a total published picks record of 18-16-2. Not world beating, but not half bad.
Some other random thoughts....
1. Clemson is the best team in the country full stop.
2. Alabama should have beaten aTm by more, but the Aggies did them selves justice by hanging around.
3. Ooooh U. Not only does their loss severely damage their CFP hopes, but it dings Ohio State as well. Right now it looks as if TCU is the standard bearer for the conference. Who saw that in the cards?
4. This just in: UCF is really good.
5. This also in: The Pac-12 is not very good this year.
6. Speaking of bad conferences, outside of Alabama, Georgia and possibly Auburn the SEC is a hot-mess.
Conference Rankings: (After week 6)
1. ACC
2. B1G
3. Big XII
4. SEC
5. Pac-12
6. American
7. Mountain West
8. Conference USA
9. MAC
10. Sunbelt
Tomorrow I'm planning on talking about my first Top 10 of the season. There are some teams in there that will be higher than you think and some that will be lower.
Now, if you'll excuse me, I have to go drink some brain bleach to get the taste of Michigan's Saturday night game out of my system.
Ah Michigan, just when you think things are on the upswing, Michigan State comes to town and you mysteriously decide to have your quarterback continue to throw the ball to them. This gave the Spartan offense too many short fields to work with and resulted in a 14-10 loss that was soul-sucking for Wolverine fans.
Now, some perspective.....
No, it's NOT time to call for Harbaugh to be fired and no, it's not correct to say that he's overrated. Despite all of this there will be unsteady fans and gleeful media types who are going to sift through the ashes of unrealistic hopes and take some type of perverse pleasure in continuing to kick the corpse.
Yes, as many have pointed out, the records of Harbaugh and Hoke, to this point in their tenures, are exactly even at 24-7, in fact, Hoke actually went 2-4 in the rivalry games while Harbaugh went 1-5 in the same. The rumors of Wolverine dominance were way overblown.
But...
Can anyone seriously argue that the program as a whole is not 100% better than where it was under Hoke? Recruiting is better, the talent is better, the energy is better, nearly everything is better except for the fact that beating Sparty and Buckeye continues to be an elusive dream. So as I sat Saturday night and downed another Bourbon and watched the season slip away, I was struck by the fact that it did hurt. Unlike the Hoke era where I had lost hope, I did still hold out hope that the defense would do it, that the offense would somehow make a play to turn it around, that Eddie McDoom would....oops.
I will admit to being slightly mystified as to why Harbaugh, another in the long-line of "quarterback gurus" in coaching cannot seem to find a competent QB to run this offense. I'm also not entirely sold on the offensive line, which is more sieve than solid and seems to have trouble both in the run game and passing game against even mediocre schools. And the play calling, my goodness. Why do you continually try and throw the ball into a monsoon? Especially when you consider the team is loaded at Running Back and should have been able to just plow down Sparty to score at least one more TD.
Next week is Indiana, which should be a win, before Penn State and Saquon Barkley come to town. Looking at the remaining schedule it appears that, barring a big upset somewhere, 8-4 is the likely finish, and some minor bowl game against some Group of 5 school that's going to be way more fired up than we. Currently the team is ranked #17 in the most recent round of polls. I think that's about right. It should be better however.
Moving on....
Last week the FIVE went 3-2 which improved my season record to 10-13-2. For the Bet the Rent Newsletter I went 1-1, bringing my season record to 8-3, for a total published picks record of 18-16-2. Not world beating, but not half bad.
Some other random thoughts....
1. Clemson is the best team in the country full stop.
2. Alabama should have beaten aTm by more, but the Aggies did them selves justice by hanging around.
3. Ooooh U. Not only does their loss severely damage their CFP hopes, but it dings Ohio State as well. Right now it looks as if TCU is the standard bearer for the conference. Who saw that in the cards?
4. This just in: UCF is really good.
5. This also in: The Pac-12 is not very good this year.
6. Speaking of bad conferences, outside of Alabama, Georgia and possibly Auburn the SEC is a hot-mess.
Conference Rankings: (After week 6)
1. ACC
2. B1G
3. Big XII
4. SEC
5. Pac-12
6. American
7. Mountain West
8. Conference USA
9. MAC
10. Sunbelt
Tomorrow I'm planning on talking about my first Top 10 of the season. There are some teams in there that will be higher than you think and some that will be lower.
Now, if you'll excuse me, I have to go drink some brain bleach to get the taste of Michigan's Saturday night game out of my system.
Thursday, October 5, 2017
College Football: The Toughest Rivalry (for me)
I am a Michigan fan. I also hate being a Michigan fan because the teams make it so damn hard. From the Fab Five and the timeout that wasn't to Appalachian State to Punt-six to losing every.single.damn.time to Urban Meyer Michigan's record of spectacular failure is only second to the fact that we've won a bunch of games.
That said, this week is the return of the rivalry with Michigan State, a team that we've only beaten once since Mike Hart called them "little brother" which might be accurate in fact but has not been so on the field (or court) of late.
For the rest of the nation this appears to be one of those weeks where conference match-ups provide us with a plate of unsightly college-football food. Double-digit lines abound and it's unlikely that many of the games will provide many sparks. All that said, this is still college football so there's bound to be some things that sneak up and surprise you. (In a good way)
To the games.....
Louisville (-3.5) @ NC State T: 65.5
This is a HUGE game for the Wolfpack. Maybe one of the biggest this season. Without this game they have no chance at winning the ACC. Fortunately, for them, Louisville has an offensive line that is somewhere between not-good and awful, and we saw the impact of that on the best player in college football against Clemson. NC State's defensive line is not as strong as Clemson's (no one's is) but they are pretty good and should give Lamar Jackson some issues as he tries to keep the Cardinals on track. I think this turns out to be a dandy. Prediction: Louisville 28 NC St 24
LSU @ Florida (-2.5) T: 45.5
You would be forgiven for falling asleep during this game when you figure neither team should do much on offense. However, it could be that the injury to Gator QB Luke Del Rio turns out to be a net positive for the Florida offense. Instead of relying on a shaky passing game the Gators are now going to be forced to lay to their strengths and run the ball more behind QB Felipe Franks. And, let's face it, LSU is a damn mess right now. Prediction: LSU 3 Florida 17
Southern Miss @ UT-San Antonio (-13.5) T: 51.5
I have been banging my RoadRunner drum all year to those of you who are listening and there's now a chance that UTSA could wind up the season undefeated. Their toughest remaining game is at Louisiana Tech at the end of the season which should be for the C-USA championship. Honestly, it looks now as if the hurricane did UH a favor because if the two teams played I'd lean UTSA. Prediction: Southern Miss 20 UTSA 52
Washington State (-2.5) @ Oregon T: 61.5
This game opened at -2.5 Oregon. If you were able to grab Wazzu on the moneyline "huzzah" to you. with starting QB Hebert likely out for significant time it will be interesting to see what the Oregon offense is able to put together. Meanwhile, Wazzu's defense is much improved and QB Luke Falk is quietly increasing his draft stock game by game. Prediction: Wazzu 35 Oregon 24
Stanford (-5.5) @ Utah T: 50.5
The unstoppable force (Stanford RB Bryce Love) meets the immovable object (Utah's running defense, which has been spectacular) Utah's run defense ranks 10th in the country only allowing 2.66 yards per play while Stanford's rush offense ranks 11th in the country getting 8.44 yards per rush. Clearly something in this scenario has to give. The Utes are a little hard to figure out because they haven't played anyone, but Stanford has, and they've lost to every really good team they have played. I think Utah gets them at home. Prediction: Stanford 17 Utah 23
West Virginia @ TCU (-13.5) T: 68.5
This is the least "big game" feeling big game I've ever seen. Even Game Day coming to their city doesn't inspire me to care much about this one. West Virginia has looked OK, but all of their wins are against bad teams. The one time they played a good team they hung in for a half, and then couldn't sustain in the 2nd. Meanwhile we kind of know that TCU is good. Arkansas, SMU and Oklahoma State is a pretty solid 3-week run. Add to that the excitement of Game Day, home field and an October day that's expected to be beautiful and I think the line is about right. Prediction: WVU 20 TCU 42
Alabama (-26.5) @ Texas A&M T: 54
I'm only commenting on this game to point something out. As bad as things have been for the Aggies this game, and Auburn, are the only two games remaining on the schedule that you look at and say "they lose here." Every other game is winnable. If the Fighting Sumlins can pull a surprise against Auburn this team could finish 10-2. The more likely scenario is 9-3 and you have to wonder if Aggie is paying attention to the teams that have fired coaches off of a 9-3 season (Hi! Nebraska [twice]). I'm starting to think Sumlin is going to make it. Not this week though, Alabama is on a mission. Prediction: Alabama 49 Texas aTm 3
And now, games involving teams I follow......
SMU @ Houston (-6.5) T: 63
I have a sneaking suspicion this might be the game of the weekend. SMU only has a loss to a very good TCU team but they were able to move the ball on them. UH loss to Texas Tech revealed a weakness in my mind, and they've been struggling offensively. That said, I think Kyle Postma is a much better quarterback for this offense and another week practicing with the starters should bear that out. Ed Oliver being healthy or not is a HUGE factor because he's the defensive anchor for this Cougars team. I'm expecting a shoot-out. Prediction: SMU 49 UH 45 (Take the over)
SDSU (-10.5) @ UNLV T: 57.5
In a perfect world the plucky Rebels would come together in the wake of last Sunday's tragedy and pull out a miracle win against the Aztecs, who are probably the best Group of 5 team in the country right now. Alas, as we've been horrifically reminded, this is not a perfect world and miracles rarely happen. I think that SDSU is too good, and UNLV's defense is too bad, for the Rebels to have a shot. One area in which they will win however is the uniforms. These helmets are straight fire. That said, I'm pulling for them to cover Prediction: SDSU 35 UNLV 28
And finally.....
Michigan State @ Michigan (-10.5) T: 40
It's all on you Mr. O'Korn. Michigan State's running attack should be nullified by Michigan's excellent defensive front. It's hard to imagine since Ed Oliver is so good but Ra'Shaun Gary is only the 2nd best interior defensive lineman in college football. IF O'Korn can get Michigan's offense fired up and not replicate Wilton Speight's habit of throwing the ball to the other team then Michigan SHOULD win handily.
I know, I know, I don't have any faith either.
Prediction: MSU 10 Go Blue 17 (But I hope it's more)
Good luck this weekend and enjoy the games.
That said, this week is the return of the rivalry with Michigan State, a team that we've only beaten once since Mike Hart called them "little brother" which might be accurate in fact but has not been so on the field (or court) of late.
For the rest of the nation this appears to be one of those weeks where conference match-ups provide us with a plate of unsightly college-football food. Double-digit lines abound and it's unlikely that many of the games will provide many sparks. All that said, this is still college football so there's bound to be some things that sneak up and surprise you. (In a good way)
To the games.....
Louisville (-3.5) @ NC State T: 65.5
This is a HUGE game for the Wolfpack. Maybe one of the biggest this season. Without this game they have no chance at winning the ACC. Fortunately, for them, Louisville has an offensive line that is somewhere between not-good and awful, and we saw the impact of that on the best player in college football against Clemson. NC State's defensive line is not as strong as Clemson's (no one's is) but they are pretty good and should give Lamar Jackson some issues as he tries to keep the Cardinals on track. I think this turns out to be a dandy. Prediction: Louisville 28 NC St 24
LSU @ Florida (-2.5) T: 45.5
You would be forgiven for falling asleep during this game when you figure neither team should do much on offense. However, it could be that the injury to Gator QB Luke Del Rio turns out to be a net positive for the Florida offense. Instead of relying on a shaky passing game the Gators are now going to be forced to lay to their strengths and run the ball more behind QB Felipe Franks. And, let's face it, LSU is a damn mess right now. Prediction: LSU 3 Florida 17
Southern Miss @ UT-San Antonio (-13.5) T: 51.5
I have been banging my RoadRunner drum all year to those of you who are listening and there's now a chance that UTSA could wind up the season undefeated. Their toughest remaining game is at Louisiana Tech at the end of the season which should be for the C-USA championship. Honestly, it looks now as if the hurricane did UH a favor because if the two teams played I'd lean UTSA. Prediction: Southern Miss 20 UTSA 52
Washington State (-2.5) @ Oregon T: 61.5
This game opened at -2.5 Oregon. If you were able to grab Wazzu on the moneyline "huzzah" to you. with starting QB Hebert likely out for significant time it will be interesting to see what the Oregon offense is able to put together. Meanwhile, Wazzu's defense is much improved and QB Luke Falk is quietly increasing his draft stock game by game. Prediction: Wazzu 35 Oregon 24
Stanford (-5.5) @ Utah T: 50.5
The unstoppable force (Stanford RB Bryce Love) meets the immovable object (Utah's running defense, which has been spectacular) Utah's run defense ranks 10th in the country only allowing 2.66 yards per play while Stanford's rush offense ranks 11th in the country getting 8.44 yards per rush. Clearly something in this scenario has to give. The Utes are a little hard to figure out because they haven't played anyone, but Stanford has, and they've lost to every really good team they have played. I think Utah gets them at home. Prediction: Stanford 17 Utah 23
West Virginia @ TCU (-13.5) T: 68.5
This is the least "big game" feeling big game I've ever seen. Even Game Day coming to their city doesn't inspire me to care much about this one. West Virginia has looked OK, but all of their wins are against bad teams. The one time they played a good team they hung in for a half, and then couldn't sustain in the 2nd. Meanwhile we kind of know that TCU is good. Arkansas, SMU and Oklahoma State is a pretty solid 3-week run. Add to that the excitement of Game Day, home field and an October day that's expected to be beautiful and I think the line is about right. Prediction: WVU 20 TCU 42
Alabama (-26.5) @ Texas A&M T: 54
I'm only commenting on this game to point something out. As bad as things have been for the Aggies this game, and Auburn, are the only two games remaining on the schedule that you look at and say "they lose here." Every other game is winnable. If the Fighting Sumlins can pull a surprise against Auburn this team could finish 10-2. The more likely scenario is 9-3 and you have to wonder if Aggie is paying attention to the teams that have fired coaches off of a 9-3 season (Hi! Nebraska [twice]). I'm starting to think Sumlin is going to make it. Not this week though, Alabama is on a mission. Prediction: Alabama 49 Texas aTm 3
And now, games involving teams I follow......
SMU @ Houston (-6.5) T: 63
I have a sneaking suspicion this might be the game of the weekend. SMU only has a loss to a very good TCU team but they were able to move the ball on them. UH loss to Texas Tech revealed a weakness in my mind, and they've been struggling offensively. That said, I think Kyle Postma is a much better quarterback for this offense and another week practicing with the starters should bear that out. Ed Oliver being healthy or not is a HUGE factor because he's the defensive anchor for this Cougars team. I'm expecting a shoot-out. Prediction: SMU 49 UH 45 (Take the over)
SDSU (-10.5) @ UNLV T: 57.5
In a perfect world the plucky Rebels would come together in the wake of last Sunday's tragedy and pull out a miracle win against the Aztecs, who are probably the best Group of 5 team in the country right now. Alas, as we've been horrifically reminded, this is not a perfect world and miracles rarely happen. I think that SDSU is too good, and UNLV's defense is too bad, for the Rebels to have a shot. One area in which they will win however is the uniforms. These helmets are straight fire. That said, I'm pulling for them to cover Prediction: SDSU 35 UNLV 28
And finally.....
Michigan State @ Michigan (-10.5) T: 40
It's all on you Mr. O'Korn. Michigan State's running attack should be nullified by Michigan's excellent defensive front. It's hard to imagine since Ed Oliver is so good but Ra'Shaun Gary is only the 2nd best interior defensive lineman in college football. IF O'Korn can get Michigan's offense fired up and not replicate Wilton Speight's habit of throwing the ball to the other team then Michigan SHOULD win handily.
I know, I know, I don't have any faith either.
Prediction: MSU 10 Go Blue 17 (But I hope it's more)
Good luck this weekend and enjoy the games.
Las Vegas: My Issues as a Gambler post-massacre
Anyone who knows me understands that I'm not usually a navel-gazer. It's not in my nature to be entirely self-reflective. I do what I do, and tend to continue to move forward. From time-to-time however things effect me and I've been known to bash out a post like this.
If you're used to my flippant tone, please forgive me this little indulgence.
Las Vegas Massacre: In Defense of Video Poker. Me, YDOP
I wrote this piece earlier tonight, for publishing on Thursday, right before this post is published, to defend a game that I love. Video Poker. I decided after that to write this piece before heading to bed because a couple of things hit me.
The profile of the Las Vegas shooter struck a nerve.
Accountant
Video Poker Player
Frequent Vegas Visitor
Plays for, and understands comps.
Often visited Las Vegas with his significant other.
If you've paid attention to my writings historically, that's me. Granted, at a much lower level (I play 25-cent video poker Paddock played $25 video poker) but he and I have a lot in common despite having, obviously, many differences.
But it still stings. I wonder now, when I visit Vegas, if people will be looking at me because I'm a Caucasian male playing video poker. Will they side-eye when I sit down and start touching screens and pressing buttons. In short, I'm a little shaken and I'm not afraid to admit it.
Now, I have no plans to ever shoot anyone. While I'm a supporter of the 2nd Amendment (All of the Bill of Rights actually) I only own 3 guns, two pistols and a shotgun, that I keep in my house. I don't have a concealed-carry permit and, to be honest, I'm not that enamored with firearms in the first place. I don't like shooting guns, I'm unimpressed, and don't follow, the gun-fetishists on Instagram etc. I don't hunt (although I did used to duck hunt a little) and I have no desire to. From that perspective Steve Paddock and I have nothing in common.
I'm an accountant, but I work to live instead of living to work. I don't like the idea of a quiet accountant sitting in a corner staring at my Spreadsheet, although I've done that (It's the job) I really prefer to be teaching and interacting with people. Even when I play video poker I'm known to talk to people, within reason.
And that's where I take solace. Vegas for me is fun, not a job. It's a chance to get away with my wife at a place where we can let our hair down (well, she can, what's left of my hair doesn't go down anymore) and just generally forget our cares while chasing the elusive hand-pay or royal flush. From that perspective, the shooter and I are polar opposites. I don't gamble at a level to receive many comps, he was given suites and meals and high-end bottles of alcohol. Typically the wife opens a tab and pays for her drinks because she doesn't like to gamble.
This is the first time in my adult life that I've had anything, other than species, in common with a murderer and, to be honest, it's a fact that's really weighing on my mind. But for the grace of God go we type stuff.
I've got a trip to Las Vegas coming up soon and I've never once considered canceling. The people that work there need not only a return to normalcy but to have tourists to pay their bills. The only way to get back to normal is.....to get back to normal.
My worry is that we've lost normal for good in Las Vegas because of how fractured society is these days.
In that case the shooter has ultimately won. We cannot allow that to happen.
If you're used to my flippant tone, please forgive me this little indulgence.
Las Vegas Massacre: In Defense of Video Poker. Me, YDOP
I wrote this piece earlier tonight, for publishing on Thursday, right before this post is published, to defend a game that I love. Video Poker. I decided after that to write this piece before heading to bed because a couple of things hit me.
The profile of the Las Vegas shooter struck a nerve.
Accountant
Video Poker Player
Frequent Vegas Visitor
Plays for, and understands comps.
Often visited Las Vegas with his significant other.
If you've paid attention to my writings historically, that's me. Granted, at a much lower level (I play 25-cent video poker Paddock played $25 video poker) but he and I have a lot in common despite having, obviously, many differences.
But it still stings. I wonder now, when I visit Vegas, if people will be looking at me because I'm a Caucasian male playing video poker. Will they side-eye when I sit down and start touching screens and pressing buttons. In short, I'm a little shaken and I'm not afraid to admit it.
Now, I have no plans to ever shoot anyone. While I'm a supporter of the 2nd Amendment (All of the Bill of Rights actually) I only own 3 guns, two pistols and a shotgun, that I keep in my house. I don't have a concealed-carry permit and, to be honest, I'm not that enamored with firearms in the first place. I don't like shooting guns, I'm unimpressed, and don't follow, the gun-fetishists on Instagram etc. I don't hunt (although I did used to duck hunt a little) and I have no desire to. From that perspective Steve Paddock and I have nothing in common.
I'm an accountant, but I work to live instead of living to work. I don't like the idea of a quiet accountant sitting in a corner staring at my Spreadsheet, although I've done that (It's the job) I really prefer to be teaching and interacting with people. Even when I play video poker I'm known to talk to people, within reason.
And that's where I take solace. Vegas for me is fun, not a job. It's a chance to get away with my wife at a place where we can let our hair down (well, she can, what's left of my hair doesn't go down anymore) and just generally forget our cares while chasing the elusive hand-pay or royal flush. From that perspective, the shooter and I are polar opposites. I don't gamble at a level to receive many comps, he was given suites and meals and high-end bottles of alcohol. Typically the wife opens a tab and pays for her drinks because she doesn't like to gamble.
This is the first time in my adult life that I've had anything, other than species, in common with a murderer and, to be honest, it's a fact that's really weighing on my mind. But for the grace of God go we type stuff.
I've got a trip to Las Vegas coming up soon and I've never once considered canceling. The people that work there need not only a return to normalcy but to have tourists to pay their bills. The only way to get back to normal is.....to get back to normal.
My worry is that we've lost normal for good in Las Vegas because of how fractured society is these days.
In that case the shooter has ultimately won. We cannot allow that to happen.
Wednesday, October 4, 2017
College Football: The Week Six FIVE
For the first time since week one the FIVE experienced a winning week. Unfortunately, for the first time this season I lost a game for Bet The Rent. In fact, I lost both games on the newsletter lowering my record to a still-respectable 7-2 for the season there.
My 3-2 FIVE finish elevated my season total 7-11-2 which means by combined season total is just peeking above .500 at 14-13-2.
Not exactly a profit turner but still on-par with most "tout" sites if you truly count their results. We're starting to roll a little bit now and I have a better feel for these games which, historically, means that you should probably start fading if you're so inclined. As always, you get what you pay for if you're taking betting advice from an oil and gas accountant in Houston.
Standard Disclaimer: The lines presented below are accurate at the Westgate Superbook at the time of publication (Wednesday) to the best of my ability to determine. Lines may change after time of print, so I try to address that. I judge my results off of the odds I present here, which would be where I would bet them (If I bet them) Shorter: Do your research folks.
On to the games (plus, a bonus)
1. Eastern Michigan @ Toledo (-13.5) T: 60.5
The Eagles started off strong against pretty bad teams, and then had a falling off against Ohio and Kentucky. While Toledo feasted on FCS Elon, beat a pretty bad Nevada team by 13 and eeked by a puzzling Tulsa team by 3. I think Toledo is the better team, especially at the Glass Bowl, but this line feels good to me because a.) EMU has a solid team and b.) their style of play. I see EMU keeping this close. Pick: Eastern Michigan to cover +13.5 (Maybe stay away if the line dips under 13 but I don't think it will)
2. Miami (-3.5) @ Florida State T: 48.5
The Hurricanes blew away (sorry) a pretty good Duke team last week on the road, while Florida State needed a beautiful pass by their Freshman QB to beat Wake for their first win of the season. Yes, Talahassee is a tough place to play and yes the Hurricanes don't have the best record there but there is something terribly wrong with this year's Seminole's and I don't think they can fix it in one week. Pick: Miami to cover -3.5 (If anything, I see this number moving more toward the Canes)
3. Tulsa @ Tulane (-4) T: 58.5
Golden Hurricane head coach Tim Montgomery has been on the short list of coaches in line for a big program for two years now. This year he's in danger of falling off as Tulsa has lost every game except one, against Louisiana-Lafayette including a head-scratcher against New Mexico. I hinted, in my pre-season review of the AAC that the Green Wave would be much improved under 2nd year head man Willie Fitz and might make a bowl. This game is central to those hopes. I think Tulsa is a fundamentally flawed team and Tulane should handle them at home. Pick: Tulane to cover -4. (I think this number might drop in the coming days so it might pay to wait here. You might even grab -3 if patient.)
4. Louisiana - Lafayette @ Idaho (-7) T: 64.5
In what is likely the last FBS season for Idaho (they've announced plans to join the FCS Big Sky conference) the Vandals from Moscow (IA) appear to be on-pace to possibly make 2nd consecutive bowl under head man Paul Petrino. Meanwhile, the Rajun Cajun's are suffering, and it's questionable whether their starting quarterback plays this week or no. Could be big times in the Kibbe Dome this weekend. Pick: Idaho to cover -7 (I keep half expecting this line to drop toward ULaLa but it seems to be holding on. Beware that drop though)
5. K-State @ Texas-Austin (-4) T: 50.5
You can call this the "haven't beaten anyone" bowl because neither of these teams has a quality win against a quality opponent. Texas-Austin lost to Maryland, beat an awful San Jose State team, lost in "gritty" fashion to USC (which might not be as good as we thought) before hanging on against an Iowa State team that gave up 44 points to an Iowa offense that can barely tie it's shoes. Meanwhile, K-State feasted on FCS Central Arkansas and FBS bottom 10 member Charlotte before losing to a Vanderbilt team that lost 58-0 to Alabama before beating a winless Baylor team. UT-Austin gets the nod from the linemakers because they are home. I think this is a close game decided at the end by a field goal. Pick: Kansas State to cover +4 (I would love for this line to move down to 3 so wait and see)
BONUS GAME!!!!!
Arkansas State (-9.5) @ Georgia Southern T: 55
I'm only including this because it's the official start of FunBelt football on Wednesday evenings. Yes, Georgia Southern is bad right now and what head coach Tyson Summers has done to a once proud team is borderline negligent, but the Red Wolves are a pretty salty group and I still say it's too early to close the book on the Eagles. Losses to Auburn and Indiana are forgivable, and while the one at New Hampshire hurts it's just one game. Arkansas State has played a brutal early season schedule losing to Nebraska and SMU while being spared a drubbing at the hands of Miami (FL) due to that bitch Irma. The game is in Statesboro so there's that. And Wednesday night FunBelt football is always worth a peek. That said, I think the Red Wolves are the much better team. Pick: Arkansas State to cover -9.5 Also, the OVER)
As a reminder, the bonus game does not count toward the stats in my FIVE. (But, if you must, you can hold a loss against me, I don't know you so it doesn't matter.)
My 3-2 FIVE finish elevated my season total 7-11-2 which means by combined season total is just peeking above .500 at 14-13-2.
Not exactly a profit turner but still on-par with most "tout" sites if you truly count their results. We're starting to roll a little bit now and I have a better feel for these games which, historically, means that you should probably start fading if you're so inclined. As always, you get what you pay for if you're taking betting advice from an oil and gas accountant in Houston.
Standard Disclaimer: The lines presented below are accurate at the Westgate Superbook at the time of publication (Wednesday) to the best of my ability to determine. Lines may change after time of print, so I try to address that. I judge my results off of the odds I present here, which would be where I would bet them (If I bet them) Shorter: Do your research folks.
On to the games (plus, a bonus)
1. Eastern Michigan @ Toledo (-13.5) T: 60.5
The Eagles started off strong against pretty bad teams, and then had a falling off against Ohio and Kentucky. While Toledo feasted on FCS Elon, beat a pretty bad Nevada team by 13 and eeked by a puzzling Tulsa team by 3. I think Toledo is the better team, especially at the Glass Bowl, but this line feels good to me because a.) EMU has a solid team and b.) their style of play. I see EMU keeping this close. Pick: Eastern Michigan to cover +13.5 (Maybe stay away if the line dips under 13 but I don't think it will)
2. Miami (-3.5) @ Florida State T: 48.5
The Hurricanes blew away (sorry) a pretty good Duke team last week on the road, while Florida State needed a beautiful pass by their Freshman QB to beat Wake for their first win of the season. Yes, Talahassee is a tough place to play and yes the Hurricanes don't have the best record there but there is something terribly wrong with this year's Seminole's and I don't think they can fix it in one week. Pick: Miami to cover -3.5 (If anything, I see this number moving more toward the Canes)
3. Tulsa @ Tulane (-4) T: 58.5
Golden Hurricane head coach Tim Montgomery has been on the short list of coaches in line for a big program for two years now. This year he's in danger of falling off as Tulsa has lost every game except one, against Louisiana-Lafayette including a head-scratcher against New Mexico. I hinted, in my pre-season review of the AAC that the Green Wave would be much improved under 2nd year head man Willie Fitz and might make a bowl. This game is central to those hopes. I think Tulsa is a fundamentally flawed team and Tulane should handle them at home. Pick: Tulane to cover -4. (I think this number might drop in the coming days so it might pay to wait here. You might even grab -3 if patient.)
4. Louisiana - Lafayette @ Idaho (-7) T: 64.5
In what is likely the last FBS season for Idaho (they've announced plans to join the FCS Big Sky conference) the Vandals from Moscow (IA) appear to be on-pace to possibly make 2nd consecutive bowl under head man Paul Petrino. Meanwhile, the Rajun Cajun's are suffering, and it's questionable whether their starting quarterback plays this week or no. Could be big times in the Kibbe Dome this weekend. Pick: Idaho to cover -7 (I keep half expecting this line to drop toward ULaLa but it seems to be holding on. Beware that drop though)
5. K-State @ Texas-Austin (-4) T: 50.5
You can call this the "haven't beaten anyone" bowl because neither of these teams has a quality win against a quality opponent. Texas-Austin lost to Maryland, beat an awful San Jose State team, lost in "gritty" fashion to USC (which might not be as good as we thought) before hanging on against an Iowa State team that gave up 44 points to an Iowa offense that can barely tie it's shoes. Meanwhile, K-State feasted on FCS Central Arkansas and FBS bottom 10 member Charlotte before losing to a Vanderbilt team that lost 58-0 to Alabama before beating a winless Baylor team. UT-Austin gets the nod from the linemakers because they are home. I think this is a close game decided at the end by a field goal. Pick: Kansas State to cover +4 (I would love for this line to move down to 3 so wait and see)
BONUS GAME!!!!!
Arkansas State (-9.5) @ Georgia Southern T: 55
I'm only including this because it's the official start of FunBelt football on Wednesday evenings. Yes, Georgia Southern is bad right now and what head coach Tyson Summers has done to a once proud team is borderline negligent, but the Red Wolves are a pretty salty group and I still say it's too early to close the book on the Eagles. Losses to Auburn and Indiana are forgivable, and while the one at New Hampshire hurts it's just one game. Arkansas State has played a brutal early season schedule losing to Nebraska and SMU while being spared a drubbing at the hands of Miami (FL) due to that bitch Irma. The game is in Statesboro so there's that. And Wednesday night FunBelt football is always worth a peek. That said, I think the Red Wolves are the much better team. Pick: Arkansas State to cover -9.5 Also, the OVER)
As a reminder, the bonus game does not count toward the stats in my FIVE. (But, if you must, you can hold a loss against me, I don't know you so it doesn't matter.)
Monday, October 2, 2017
Las Vegas: Much more important than sports.
Last night at around 10PM Vegas time a very deranged man by the name of Stephen Paddock broke his hotel room window on the 32nd floor of the Mandalay Bay hotel and casino and proceeded to fire hundreds of round of bullets into approximately 20,000 people who were attending an outdoor country music festival.
The horrific result was the deadliest mass shooting in modern US History with a (current) count of 58 dead and 400+ wounded. It is a tragedy that knocked a hole into the collective psyche of a city that I love and, more importantly, has permanently damaged the lives of thousands due to loss of a loved one or injury.
There will come a time to discuss next steps but, for now, I would encourage you to either donate blood (if you're able) or make a donation if you can.
Until then, this blog offers up thought and prayers to everyone who is suffering from this.
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