It's that time again, time to try and find a nugget of entertainment out of what looks, on paper, to be a very uninspiring slate of Conference Championship games. Granted, if you're into the College Football Playoff (this blog is not) then there are a couple of key sub-plots brewing beneath the actual games on the field....
Will Georgia beat Alabama and, if so, does the latter get in?
IF 'Bama holds serve and OU and Ohio State both win, who gets the nod?
What IF there's chaos? (OU losing, Ohio State losing (*snort*), Clemson losing (*snicker*)
The point is most of the drama in these games is going to take place off the field, in a dank hotel conference room in Dallas. If it's possible, the Lords of College football have found an even WORSE way to crown a champion than the old B(C)S system. Instead of two teams being selected it's now four, and those four benefit from wearing a certain helmet. This happens every year and it will happen until one of two things happen:
1. The expand the CFP to eight teams, thus making college football "NFL Lite" and ruining the diversity in the game once and for all.
2. Everyone comes to their senses and says "Ah screw it" and the old bowl system is restored.
Since the chances of #2 ever happening is slim to none (and slim just left town) we're stuck with what we're stuck with so lets make the best of it on this last weekend.
To the Games....
Marathon MAC Football Championship Game
Northern Illinois @ Buffalo (-3.5) [50.5]
One of the four championship games where the two opponents have not faced each other earlier in the season. Northern Illinois won their division, but backed into the win when Ohio and Western Michigan threw up all over themselves. They've lost their last two and I cannot see them holding on for more than a half against a Buffalo team that's probably got the best quarterback in the State of New York. (College OR Pro)
Prediction: NIU 13 Buffalo 31
Pick: Buffalo to cover -3.5 & the UNDER
PAC-12 Football Championship Game Presented by 76.
Utah @ Washington (-5.5) [44.5]
At the beginning of the season pretty much everyone (except me) was picking Washington to be here, but almost no one (including me) thought Utah would be the opponent. Washington has suddenly remembered that Myles Gaskin is their running back, and while Utah's defense is stout, Washington's athleticism is miles ahead of what the Utes have to offer. Utah has averaged 31.7 points per game this season but, when they played Washington previously, they could only score 7. I expect a repeat of the prior game, with just a little bit more scoring.
Prediction: Utah 13 Washington 28
Pick: Washington to cover -5.5 No pick on the line. 44.5 feels solid.
SunBelt Conference Football Championship Game
Louisiana @ Appalachian State (-16.5) [58]
Back on October 27th there was little sign that the Rajin' Cajuns 47-43 win at home was going to be anything other than a nice win for the program over a good team, but a 3-game conference win streak to end the season made that the tie-breaker that got them a date at App State. Appalachian State is the class of this conference, but they only beat Louisiana 27-17 at home the last time they played (10/20). I think Louisiana is a better team right now, but I think App State is better as well. I do think this could wind up being much closer than the spread suggests.
Prediction: Louisiana 21 App State 31
Pick: Louisiana to cover +16.5 and UNDER 58
BIG XII Championship
UT-Austin @ Oklahoma (-8) [78]
The last time these two tussled, (10/6) at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas, the result was a 48-45 "instant classic" game that left Sooner hearts broken and the Longhorns ecstatic. It also left the Big XII perturbed because 'Horns down" became a thing and now they've gone and done what the Big XII always does and made a stupid decision by putting the decision as to whether or not it's a personal foul in the hands of Big XII referees. What could possibly go wrong. On the field it's just so hard to have any faith in the Sooner defense, yet their offense is good enough to beat anyone. I think we're on pace for yet another track-meet here and I don't see any way you can take either Oklahoma OR the under given the sorry state of their defense.
Prediction: UT-Austin 52 Oklahoma 55
Pick: UT-Austin to cover -8 and OVER.
Globe-Life C-USA Football Championship
Alabama-Birmingham @ Middle Tennessee State (-1) [46]
The 2018 Blazers are one of the best stories this year in college football. All but forced to abandon the sport by their parent university in Tuscaloosa, UAB refused to die, their football coach refused to leave, and in their second year back from the dead they're in the conference championship. Unfortunately, for them, they place a Middle Tennessee State team that they lost to just last weekend by a score of 27-3. It's a cute, feel-good story and I'm very happy for them, but if they get close to the -1 line I'll be shocked.
Prediction: UAB 13 Middle Tennessee State 31
Pick: Middle Tennessee State to COVER -1
American Athletic Conference Football Championship Game
Memphis @ UCF (-3) [64]
These two teams faced each other on October 13th with UCF coming from way behind to squeak out a 31-30 win in Memphis. Since then Memphis has been up and down, giving up a lot of points but scoring quite a few themselves. They clinched their berth here with a 52-31 domination of Houston at home, where they play much better. UCF has won 24 straight games dating back to last year and is looking for their second perfect season in a row. They have yet to score less than 30 points per game this season, but as we all saw last week their star QB McKenzie Milton had his leg twisted backwards in a horrific injury and is done for the year (if not forever) calling signals. Still, the Bounce House is a tough place for visitors to play, and UCF did OK on offense after the Milton disaster. I'm rooting for them but I'm not going anywhere near the -3.
Prediction: Memphis 35 UCF 38
Pick: A very tepid over 64 (but I probably won't touch it)
Southeastern Conference Championship Football Game
Alabama (-13.5) @ Georgia [63.5]
It's the "game of the year" redeux. The same as last year only different, as Alabama has an offense that's decidedly NOT one-handed as it was in years past and their defense is not up to it's usual snuff. Or are they. Yes, they gave up 31 points to Arkansas but in every other game they've looked their usual selves. Maybe their WORST game was really their worst half, against Citadel, during SEC Buy Week right before Auburn. Outside of the loss to LSU, Georgia has been consistently good, if not great. That said I expect a down and dirty brawl with these two, just like we had in last year's SEC Championship Game. In my heart, because it would do the most long-term damage to the CFP, I'd like to see Georgia win. In my head, I know, this Bama team is just too damn good.
Prediction: Alabama 42 Georgia 14
Pick: Alabama to cover -13.5 and UNDER 63.5
Mountain West Football Championship Game
Fresno State @ Boise State (-2.5) 52.5
The rematch of the two best teams in the Mountain West is predicted to be a repeat of their last meeting, a 24-17 Boise State win on 11/19 on the Smurf Turf. This game is hugely important for two reasons. First, the winner is the conference champion and second, should UCF lose, the winner most probably gets the NY6 Bowl slot reserved for the highest ranking Group of 5 conference champion. On a neutral field I would like Fresno better, but this is Boise, on the Blue turf, with weather forecast mentioning rain mixed with snow and freezing temperatures.
Prediction: Fresno State 10 Boise State 24
Pick: Boise State to COVER -2.5 and UNDER 52.5
Atlantic Coast Conference Football Championship Game.
Clemson (-27.5) @ Pitt [53]
Clemson has done everything right this year. Once they made the QB switch to Lawrence their offense has been in high gear and their defense is one of the nastiest in the country. Pitt has been gritty, tough, and is coming off of a 24-3 shellacking at the hands of the Miami Hurricane. IF Pitt were to wear their 80's era uniforms I might give them a chance....... I'm kidding. This one is going to get ugly early and will stay that way. The most exciting part of the game might be the Dr. Pepper halftime scholarship toss (unless you're Sam Ponder that is)
Prediction: Clemson 58 Pitt 10
Pick: Clemson to COVER -27.5 and OVER 53
B1G Championship Game Presented by Discover
Northwestern @ Ohio State (-14) [61]
Full disclosure: I'm a Michigan fan, and after what I witnessed last weekend I'm not even sure if I'm going to pay much attention to this game. But it's going to be a blowout anyway, because Ohio State suddenly decided to wake up against Michigan and they're bigger, faster, stronger and better coached than the Wildcats. MAYBE Northwestern can keep it close for a half, but Ohio State has incentive to put it on Northwestern because of the OU/CFP situation. Drink heavy Northwestern fans, this one's gonna hurt.
Prediction: Northwestern 10 Ohio State 70
Pick: Ohio State to COVER -14 and OVER 61
The Make-Up games:
Believe it or not, not every game that's going to be played on Saturday has a title at stake. But there are some meaningful games here from a "who gets a ton of extra practices related to a bowl" perspective.
Eastern Carolina @ NC State (-23) [60.5]
There's really nothing at stake here except that both teams lost a game to the hurricane so they scheduled each other here. NC State is 8-3 and ECU is 3-8 and just fired their head coach. It's going to be ugly, and nigh unwatchable. ECU should get a good pay day however, and they don't have to travel too far.
Prediction: ECU 3 NC State 45
No pick.
Akron @ South Carolina (-30) 56.5
Again, nothing much at stake here, Akron is 4-7 and SC is 6-5. Sure a loss would stink SC's pride, but they're going to push for 7-5 which won't even help them in the SEC standings since the team right in front of them is 9-3. Another unwatchable game unless something bizarre happens. SC lost ECU as game due to the hurricane and they're busy with NC State, so Akron stepped in.
Prediction: Akron 10 SC 23
Pick: UNDER 56.5
Marshall @ Virginia Tech (-3.5) 51
OK, now we're getting somewhere. Virginia Tech is 5-6 and only scheduled this game because they need the win to move to 6-6 and keep their longest NCAA Recognized* bowl streak alive at 26. But they NEED THIS WIN against a VERY GOOD Marshall team that's 8-3 with losses to NC State, Middle Tennessee State and Southern Miss. Virginia Tech has struggled this year and will need a strong effort to keep their bowl hopes alive.
Prediction: Marshall 28 Va Tech 21
Pick: Marshall to COVER -3.5
Stanford (-3) @ California [47]
This is another make-up game that's pretty much only being played because there are conference ranking at stake. Stanford is 5-3, Cal is 4-4, Oregon sits between them both at 5-4. Should Cal pull the upset that might make the Pac-12 bowl selection process interesting, but both of these teams are going to a bowl regardless.
Prediction: Stanford 27 Cal 14
No Pick
After this weekend, and prior to the Final CFP rankings, I'll release my first top 10 of the season.
Enjoy this last (partial) weekend of college football. After this we take a couple of weeks off before the bowl games start.
Thursday, November 29, 2018
Why there will never be casino gambling in Texas.
From Tunica Mississippi.
Caesars to stop all gaming at Tunica Roadhouse Casino.
The reason for this drop-off is not because Tunica casinos got worse, it's because neighboring or nearby states started allowing casino gambling of their own. Florida in particular allowed slot-gaming at pari-mutual facilities in 2005 & 2008, this reduced the demand for Mississippi Casinos greatly. Also, North Carolina also authorized two Indian tribes to allow gaming, which sucked away the lucrative Atlanta market. Finally, Missouri legalized riverboat gaming in 1995, placing casinos in St. Louis and Kansas City which siphoned off those markets.
Because of this, Many parts of Mississippi are now overbuilt and casinos are either going away (the Roadhouse) or running along on the fumes of reduced revenue.
And don't think for a minute that Louisiana and Oklahoma haven't noticed this.
If you go to a casino in either Southern Oklahoma (Winstar or Choctaw), Boisser City, LA or Lake Charles, LA, a quick perusal of the license plates in the parking lot will tell you why they are all spending Millions in lobbying money to prevent Texas from ever opening casinos.
All of the plates are from Texas.
The casino operators in Louisiana and the Tribes in Oklahoma all understand that an open casino market in Texas would all but run them out of business. It would be the death-knell for the State's industry, remove from the government a fairly lucrative revenue stream, and cost thousands of jobs in states that cannot afford to lose them.
Despite all of this, there was always the hope that a savvy operator like Tillman Fertitta (owner of the Golden Nugget chain of casinos) would be able to lobby the Texas Lege to allow for casinos in Texas.
Once Fertitta purchased the Golden Nugget Lake Charles that hope was vanquished.
I use the word "hope" and "dream" but, to be honest, I've never thought Texas should have casino gaming. While casinos offer some people a better wage than they would otherwise afford the sad fact of the matter is they are net drains on the local economy.
Like it or not, most people don't handle gaming well, and those that don't handle it even worse when casinos are within easy reach. This is why I rarely suggest to someone I meet in a casino that they should consider moving to Las Vegas. And it's the same reason I don't want to see casinos in Texas.
But this story is a case-study in why that is never going to happen. There's too much money involved for people who understand the need to lobby (and pay large sums of money to) politicians and their campaigns.
Yes, the only solution for Houston's Astrodome is probably to turn it into a giant casino. It's also never going to happen.
So, tear it down already then.
Caesars to stop all gaming at Tunica Roadhouse Casino.
Tourism officials said the Tunica gaming market is a $550-600 million industry, roughly half of what it was in its heyday in the late 2000s.
The reason for this drop-off is not because Tunica casinos got worse, it's because neighboring or nearby states started allowing casino gambling of their own. Florida in particular allowed slot-gaming at pari-mutual facilities in 2005 & 2008, this reduced the demand for Mississippi Casinos greatly. Also, North Carolina also authorized two Indian tribes to allow gaming, which sucked away the lucrative Atlanta market. Finally, Missouri legalized riverboat gaming in 1995, placing casinos in St. Louis and Kansas City which siphoned off those markets.
Because of this, Many parts of Mississippi are now overbuilt and casinos are either going away (the Roadhouse) or running along on the fumes of reduced revenue.
And don't think for a minute that Louisiana and Oklahoma haven't noticed this.
If you go to a casino in either Southern Oklahoma (Winstar or Choctaw), Boisser City, LA or Lake Charles, LA, a quick perusal of the license plates in the parking lot will tell you why they are all spending Millions in lobbying money to prevent Texas from ever opening casinos.
All of the plates are from Texas.
The casino operators in Louisiana and the Tribes in Oklahoma all understand that an open casino market in Texas would all but run them out of business. It would be the death-knell for the State's industry, remove from the government a fairly lucrative revenue stream, and cost thousands of jobs in states that cannot afford to lose them.
Despite all of this, there was always the hope that a savvy operator like Tillman Fertitta (owner of the Golden Nugget chain of casinos) would be able to lobby the Texas Lege to allow for casinos in Texas.
Once Fertitta purchased the Golden Nugget Lake Charles that hope was vanquished.
I use the word "hope" and "dream" but, to be honest, I've never thought Texas should have casino gaming. While casinos offer some people a better wage than they would otherwise afford the sad fact of the matter is they are net drains on the local economy.
Like it or not, most people don't handle gaming well, and those that don't handle it even worse when casinos are within easy reach. This is why I rarely suggest to someone I meet in a casino that they should consider moving to Las Vegas. And it's the same reason I don't want to see casinos in Texas.
But this story is a case-study in why that is never going to happen. There's too much money involved for people who understand the need to lobby (and pay large sums of money to) politicians and their campaigns.
Yes, the only solution for Houston's Astrodome is probably to turn it into a giant casino. It's also never going to happen.
So, tear it down already then.
Wednesday, November 28, 2018
College Football: A Proposed Ban on all Hand Signs
With the news coming out that the Big XII has decided to ban "Horns Down" I think it might be necessary to take this a few steps further....
The NCAA should ban "ALL" student body hand signs forever.
This includes "Gig 'em" and all of the various aTm class hand signs, and Guns Up, and the ASU Pitchfork, and the UH Shasta Paw (Shocker!) and, most especially, the horrendously awful TCU two-knuckle thing that really just feels like they ran out of ideas.
Baylor's bear paw? Nope.
Hook 'em? Book 'em.
It should also be a law that any team not named "Alabama" be forever and forthwith prohibited from flashing the "We're number 1" hand-sign, and this includes the student body. If a player or student from Rutgers, Vanderbilt, Wake Forest or any Group of 5 school ever flashes the "#1"sign they should be immediately kicked out of school and barred from Intercollegiate competition forever.
While we're at it, let's ban those awful gray alternate uniforms as well, or black ones. In fact, let's make a law that the only colors you can have in your uniform are the official colors as listed by the university. I am open to discussing the Oregon amendment on this one because their 2,792 combinations remain fun. Everyone else? Home: Primary color, Away: White, Alternate: Accent color. And that's it.
Students or alumni in the stands who continue to sport these awful alternate uniforms, or who persist on flashing hand signs will be taken out of the stadium by security and be forced to listen to Stephen A. Smith and Paul Finebaum argue at-length over the superiority of the SEC. After all, there's only so-much "they beat up on 4 cupcakes per year" screaming you can take.
While we're at it, let's agree by legislative fiat that the only legal use of Smith and Finebaum going forward is for said punishment. I'm open to an outright ban on Cowherd, Bayless and other talk radio/TV personalities.
In further efforts to clean up college football the Oklahoma marching band should be Constitutionally required to learn and play 10 songs other than "Boomer Sooner" on a constant loop. The USC band is exempt from this because their fight song and corresponding defensive anthem is much less annoying.
I also propose a ban on sympathy, or overly-sympathetic broadcasts toward Urban Meyer, the used of the word "adversity" when talking about teams or further explaining that "RPO" means "Run/Pass Option" This should also be applied to NFL announcers/studio shows.
IF we allow NFL studio shows to survive that is. Unlike College Game Day, which should be declared a US treasure and protected as such, NFL studio shows are awful and their elimination would go a long way toward the promotion of the country's mental well-being.
Finally, in a bid toward returning college football to greatness: The CFP should be abolished, the ground on which it stood salted to never return. The NCAA should decree that the old Bowl system be the law of the land and let's go back to the days where winning the conference was key, where New Year's Day mattered, and where the entire off-season was spent arguing about whether the AP or UPI poll got it right with their National Champion.
I'm sorry folks, it really is the only way.
The NCAA should ban "ALL" student body hand signs forever.
This includes "Gig 'em" and all of the various aTm class hand signs, and Guns Up, and the ASU Pitchfork, and the UH Shasta Paw (Shocker!) and, most especially, the horrendously awful TCU two-knuckle thing that really just feels like they ran out of ideas.
Baylor's bear paw? Nope.
Hook 'em? Book 'em.
It should also be a law that any team not named "Alabama" be forever and forthwith prohibited from flashing the "We're number 1" hand-sign, and this includes the student body. If a player or student from Rutgers, Vanderbilt, Wake Forest or any Group of 5 school ever flashes the "#1"sign they should be immediately kicked out of school and barred from Intercollegiate competition forever.
While we're at it, let's ban those awful gray alternate uniforms as well, or black ones. In fact, let's make a law that the only colors you can have in your uniform are the official colors as listed by the university. I am open to discussing the Oregon amendment on this one because their 2,792 combinations remain fun. Everyone else? Home: Primary color, Away: White, Alternate: Accent color. And that's it.
Students or alumni in the stands who continue to sport these awful alternate uniforms, or who persist on flashing hand signs will be taken out of the stadium by security and be forced to listen to Stephen A. Smith and Paul Finebaum argue at-length over the superiority of the SEC. After all, there's only so-much "they beat up on 4 cupcakes per year" screaming you can take.
While we're at it, let's agree by legislative fiat that the only legal use of Smith and Finebaum going forward is for said punishment. I'm open to an outright ban on Cowherd, Bayless and other talk radio/TV personalities.
In further efforts to clean up college football the Oklahoma marching band should be Constitutionally required to learn and play 10 songs other than "Boomer Sooner" on a constant loop. The USC band is exempt from this because their fight song and corresponding defensive anthem is much less annoying.
I also propose a ban on sympathy, or overly-sympathetic broadcasts toward Urban Meyer, the used of the word "adversity" when talking about teams or further explaining that "RPO" means "Run/Pass Option" This should also be applied to NFL announcers/studio shows.
IF we allow NFL studio shows to survive that is. Unlike College Game Day, which should be declared a US treasure and protected as such, NFL studio shows are awful and their elimination would go a long way toward the promotion of the country's mental well-being.
Finally, in a bid toward returning college football to greatness: The CFP should be abolished, the ground on which it stood salted to never return. The NCAA should decree that the old Bowl system be the law of the land and let's go back to the days where winning the conference was key, where New Year's Day mattered, and where the entire off-season was spent arguing about whether the AP or UPI poll got it right with their National Champion.
I'm sorry folks, it really is the only way.
Tuesday, November 27, 2018
The Las Vegas Strip is no Longer a Destination if you want to Gamble.
For the past few years I've written on here, and other places, that the days of the Las Vegas Strip as a gambling destination is rapidly coming to an end. The Corporate policies of reduced odds in the form of 6:5 blackjack, triple zero Roulette, reduced odds on craps, tighter hold on slots, worse payouts on video poker, a reduction of comps and fewer perks for gamblers have been slowly grinding away at the value proposition for some time now.
Add in resort fees, parking fees CNF fees, light/ticket systems for comped drinks and reduction in gambling-related staff and it's been fairly clear that the mid-to-low level gambler is not a coveted tourist by casinos.
This is doubly true if you're smart, understand the games and the baked-in house advantage and try to position yourself at the games where you have the best of it.
Casinos "back off" card counters not because the practice is illegal, but because if done correctly they can gain a slight theoretical edge over the house. In other words the casinos are using the age-old practice of "management reserves the right to refuse service" to shield themselves from a player who works to gain an edge.
In that sense owning a casino is a license to print money. You can refuse the action of anyone who might potentially win from you long term, while keeping the action from players who have no shot. The same is true for the "European" regulated sports book operators moving into town now (WilliamHill, FanDuel, etc.) who refuse action from anyone who seems to have more than a basic understanding of a) What a line is and b) How to get the best of it.
With everything in their favor it's ridiculous to think just how many hotel and casino operators go out of business/file for bankruptcy. But they do, famously in some cases, and the ones that do well have decided that the answer to new profit is to cut, not to grow.
Cutting your way to increased profitability is rarely a sustainable business model, yet that's exactly what Caesars and MGM have decided to do. Not only are they cutting staff, which hurts service, but they're cutting odds as well, taking away even the hope of walking out a winner. As a result of this their occupancy rates have been taking a hit, gambling revenue on the Strip is declining at a faster rate than elsewhere, and regional operators are starting to make up some ground.
Add to that mix decreases in handle in Macau, based largely on the anti-corruption push in China right now, and you have a perfect storm of suck for the mid-range gambler when heading to Vegas.
Does this mean you shouldn't visit the Strip?
Of course not. Because the Strip is still full of great restaurants, great attractions and is still the most awesome streets in the world. Nor does it mean you should never PLAY on the Strip. There are still some decent games to be found, you just have to look really hard.
It's also not a death-knell for your offers if you quit playing at CET and MGM. I haven't played all that much at CET in 2 years, moving what remains of my Strip play to MGM and (more often) Cosmopolitan. Yet, I'm still getting offers for 2-3 free nights at LINQ, Bally's and Harrah's and discounts at Paris, Caesars and Cromwell. When the casinos feel that they're going to have trouble hitting occupancy targets they'll still give you discounts and rooms as they have in the past. So keeping all of your play at one casino or brand because of loyalty is clearly not worth the effort.
The tipping point for the Strip however appears to have been the recent renovations at the Palazzo. From reports it appears that Ol' Sheldon has finally decided that unless you are a high-limit gambler or attending a convention he wants nothing to do with you. He's placed a ticket system on his VP machines that is stingy, he's reportedly gutted his Grazie program and continues to make it very non-transparent and he's greatly reduced host ability to offer comps for theoretical losses.
Other casinos have tried this before with varying levels of success. WynnCore, for a time, stopped comping drinks altogether at the video poker bars, but they've recently walked back that policy due to reduced traffic. MGM and CET use the red light/green light system and Cosmopolitan uses as ticket system.
On a whole I'm OK with these drink metering systems, as they prevent free-loaders and slow-players from occupying seats that really should go to those of us who want to actually.....play. But my play on the Strip has become smaller and smaller over time, to where now I'm probably not even risking 20% of my trip bank-roll in Strip casinos.
The fact is this: There are better games off the Strip in various casinos around the city, from downtown to Boulder Highway to South of Town and all around. And with the rise of Lyft/Uber getting their has never been cheaper, or easier.
So, if you're a mid-to-low level gambler who wants to at least feel like you have a CHANCE to return home a winner you're going to have to move off Strip for the majority of your play.
One caveat however: Already we're seeing signs of Strip creep into the downtown Fremont area. This is a horrid development that I hope changes soon. Already the Golden Nugget is unplayable, and the D and Golden Gate are getting there. Even the El Cortez has installed a light system.
I still Love Las Vegas, I just spend a whole lot more time while I'm there away from the Strip. Outside of a loss in gaming revenue, they also lose quite a bit in dining and drink money, because when I go I eat and drink well.
Let's hope the pendulum eventually swings back to sanity, but more likely it's going to get a whole lot worse before it gets better. It may even get so bad that your local casino is the best gambling option of them all.
Add in resort fees, parking fees CNF fees, light/ticket systems for comped drinks and reduction in gambling-related staff and it's been fairly clear that the mid-to-low level gambler is not a coveted tourist by casinos.
This is doubly true if you're smart, understand the games and the baked-in house advantage and try to position yourself at the games where you have the best of it.
Casinos "back off" card counters not because the practice is illegal, but because if done correctly they can gain a slight theoretical edge over the house. In other words the casinos are using the age-old practice of "management reserves the right to refuse service" to shield themselves from a player who works to gain an edge.
In that sense owning a casino is a license to print money. You can refuse the action of anyone who might potentially win from you long term, while keeping the action from players who have no shot. The same is true for the "European" regulated sports book operators moving into town now (WilliamHill, FanDuel, etc.) who refuse action from anyone who seems to have more than a basic understanding of a) What a line is and b) How to get the best of it.
With everything in their favor it's ridiculous to think just how many hotel and casino operators go out of business/file for bankruptcy. But they do, famously in some cases, and the ones that do well have decided that the answer to new profit is to cut, not to grow.
Cutting your way to increased profitability is rarely a sustainable business model, yet that's exactly what Caesars and MGM have decided to do. Not only are they cutting staff, which hurts service, but they're cutting odds as well, taking away even the hope of walking out a winner. As a result of this their occupancy rates have been taking a hit, gambling revenue on the Strip is declining at a faster rate than elsewhere, and regional operators are starting to make up some ground.
Add to that mix decreases in handle in Macau, based largely on the anti-corruption push in China right now, and you have a perfect storm of suck for the mid-range gambler when heading to Vegas.
Does this mean you shouldn't visit the Strip?
Of course not. Because the Strip is still full of great restaurants, great attractions and is still the most awesome streets in the world. Nor does it mean you should never PLAY on the Strip. There are still some decent games to be found, you just have to look really hard.
It's also not a death-knell for your offers if you quit playing at CET and MGM. I haven't played all that much at CET in 2 years, moving what remains of my Strip play to MGM and (more often) Cosmopolitan. Yet, I'm still getting offers for 2-3 free nights at LINQ, Bally's and Harrah's and discounts at Paris, Caesars and Cromwell. When the casinos feel that they're going to have trouble hitting occupancy targets they'll still give you discounts and rooms as they have in the past. So keeping all of your play at one casino or brand because of loyalty is clearly not worth the effort.
The tipping point for the Strip however appears to have been the recent renovations at the Palazzo. From reports it appears that Ol' Sheldon has finally decided that unless you are a high-limit gambler or attending a convention he wants nothing to do with you. He's placed a ticket system on his VP machines that is stingy, he's reportedly gutted his Grazie program and continues to make it very non-transparent and he's greatly reduced host ability to offer comps for theoretical losses.
Other casinos have tried this before with varying levels of success. WynnCore, for a time, stopped comping drinks altogether at the video poker bars, but they've recently walked back that policy due to reduced traffic. MGM and CET use the red light/green light system and Cosmopolitan uses as ticket system.
On a whole I'm OK with these drink metering systems, as they prevent free-loaders and slow-players from occupying seats that really should go to those of us who want to actually.....play. But my play on the Strip has become smaller and smaller over time, to where now I'm probably not even risking 20% of my trip bank-roll in Strip casinos.
The fact is this: There are better games off the Strip in various casinos around the city, from downtown to Boulder Highway to South of Town and all around. And with the rise of Lyft/Uber getting their has never been cheaper, or easier.
So, if you're a mid-to-low level gambler who wants to at least feel like you have a CHANCE to return home a winner you're going to have to move off Strip for the majority of your play.
One caveat however: Already we're seeing signs of Strip creep into the downtown Fremont area. This is a horrid development that I hope changes soon. Already the Golden Nugget is unplayable, and the D and Golden Gate are getting there. Even the El Cortez has installed a light system.
I still Love Las Vegas, I just spend a whole lot more time while I'm there away from the Strip. Outside of a loss in gaming revenue, they also lose quite a bit in dining and drink money, because when I go I eat and drink well.
Let's hope the pendulum eventually swings back to sanity, but more likely it's going to get a whole lot worse before it gets better. It may even get so bad that your local casino is the best gambling option of them all.
Houston Texans: Mea Culpa
I freely admit that I pegged this Texans team wrong. After a 0-2 start I DID write that they shouldn't panic, but I also stated that Bill O'Brien was probably not the coach to be leading the turn-around.
Eight wins in a row later and it appears that he WAS the guy to lead the team.
Not that his coaching has been brilliant, it just hasn't been BAD, and while I still think there are holes in the roster he's making good enough use of his talent to beat the teams he should which, coincidentally, are most of the teams on the schedule. As amazing as this might sound, the two toughest games remaining on the schedule might be the Browns and the Colts over the next two weeks.
But 8-3 is 8-3 and if you are what your record says you are then the Texans have turned into a much-better-than-average NFL team and the clear front-runner in the much depleted AFC South. They now hold what is basically a 3-game lead over the Colts (Since the Texans beat Indy in their first match-up earlier in the year) with 5 games remaining. They're not a lock to win the division, they still have to play them after all, but a Texans fans has to be feeling pretty good right about now.
This still doesn't cover up the issues on the offensive line (which, to be fair, has gotten a little better, especially in the run game) or the problems in the defensive backfield (which has also gotten better due to the re-emergence of the pass rush). But it does mean that the good players on this team are finally stepping up and making plays that cover up the deficiencies in other areas.
They are also getting a ridiculous amount of good luck in the form of other coaches making head-scratching calls. An example of this is the Titans handing the ball off to a TE (getting his first carry of his career) on 4th and inches instead of bruising tailback Henry. As I said, odd.
DeShaun Watson is playing much, much better, although still holding onto the ball too long, and DeAndre Hopkins is a joy to watch. Even Miller is running the ball with authority, and surprising speed last night in his franchise-record setting 97 yard TD jaunt.
I'm still not convinced this team has the make-up to get beyond the 2nd round of the playoffs, but they are looking more like a playoff team over the last 4 games of the winning streak than they did during the first 4.
So, mea culpa then, I was wrong. This year's Texans team IS a pretty good team that has the ability to win the division. While I'm still not entirely sold on their long-term potential, they're at least winning the games they should win now, which is something they've not always done in the past.
Eight wins in a row later and it appears that he WAS the guy to lead the team.
Not that his coaching has been brilliant, it just hasn't been BAD, and while I still think there are holes in the roster he's making good enough use of his talent to beat the teams he should which, coincidentally, are most of the teams on the schedule. As amazing as this might sound, the two toughest games remaining on the schedule might be the Browns and the Colts over the next two weeks.
But 8-3 is 8-3 and if you are what your record says you are then the Texans have turned into a much-better-than-average NFL team and the clear front-runner in the much depleted AFC South. They now hold what is basically a 3-game lead over the Colts (Since the Texans beat Indy in their first match-up earlier in the year) with 5 games remaining. They're not a lock to win the division, they still have to play them after all, but a Texans fans has to be feeling pretty good right about now.
This still doesn't cover up the issues on the offensive line (which, to be fair, has gotten a little better, especially in the run game) or the problems in the defensive backfield (which has also gotten better due to the re-emergence of the pass rush). But it does mean that the good players on this team are finally stepping up and making plays that cover up the deficiencies in other areas.
They are also getting a ridiculous amount of good luck in the form of other coaches making head-scratching calls. An example of this is the Titans handing the ball off to a TE (getting his first carry of his career) on 4th and inches instead of bruising tailback Henry. As I said, odd.
DeShaun Watson is playing much, much better, although still holding onto the ball too long, and DeAndre Hopkins is a joy to watch. Even Miller is running the ball with authority, and surprising speed last night in his franchise-record setting 97 yard TD jaunt.
I'm still not convinced this team has the make-up to get beyond the 2nd round of the playoffs, but they are looking more like a playoff team over the last 4 games of the winning streak than they did during the first 4.
So, mea culpa then, I was wrong. This year's Texans team IS a pretty good team that has the ability to win the division. While I'm still not entirely sold on their long-term potential, they're at least winning the games they should win now, which is something they've not always done in the past.
Monday, November 26, 2018
College Football: Notes from the last.
Outside of conference championship games, and a stray make-up or three, last weekend was the end of regular season college football for 2018. Much like the rest of the season it contained a few hits, more misses, and some downright disappointing results.
"Rivalry" week, unlike SEC Buy Week, is typically filled with high-stakes match-ups that provide the public with a plethora of great finishes, back and forth games, and a surprise or three. This year?
Not so much.
The problems started in the early window, when The Game, The Iron Bowl and....Georgia vs. Georgia Tech all turned into laughers, especially in the 2nd half. I'll have more on Michigan later but, for now, lets just say that the SEC is exactly what we thought it was and we're back to 'Bama vs. Georgia in the SEC title game with them being the top two teams in the SEC and it's not close.
College football today has gentrified into distinct strata.
On top, you have Alabama and Clemson. They're miles ahead of everyone else and it's likely (although not a certainty) that they'll be the last two teams standing (again) when the CFP rolls around. After that you have a second tier: Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Georgia, Ohio State who are all pretty much interchangeable. The only reason the Irish have an edge in the polls is that most of the teams they played as "rivals" this year were relatively down. This doesn't mean that the Irish aren't any good, but do you really give them much of a chance against Clemson or Alabama?
After that comes the third tier. Teams like Michigan, Texas, Washington, Florida, LSU, West Virginia, Penn State, teams that are plenty good, and who might even pull the occasional upset against one of the big dogs, but teams that cannot quite put it together on a consistent basis.
After that it's a grab-bag of several teams who float in and out of the Top 25, before hitting the teams with six or seven wins who will fill out the bowl schedule and then you have the have-nots. The point is, outside of the 1st two tiers, the CFP has ensured that no one even matters. I've said it before and I'll say it again: The College Football Playoff is ruining college football and it needs to either be expanded or (preferably) killed off altogether.
Floating around this flotsam and jetsam of team rankings is UCF. Winners of 25 straight they're kind of hard to categorize because we really aren't that sure how good they really are. Not even going into the horrid leg injury suffered by McKinzie Milton, they're a team with a relatively weak strength of schedule who has done nothing but win, and sometimes win big. It's somewhat of a parlor game to make fun of them (especially by the eternally jealous Mountain West) but the fact is the committee should give them a chance against Alabama in the Playoff, but you can be guaranteed they will not.
Again, the CFP cannot continue to exist in its current form for much longer without suffering a massive crisis or confidence from the fans. An expansion to eight teams would help, but not resolve, many of the doubts about its validity (and, also, its integrity) but at this point getting away from it and reverting back to the old bowl system might be the best option. The only workable, above-board, 100% legitimate option is to expand to 16, with the 10 conference champions getting an automatic berth and six at-large teams. To do this however you'd need to shorten the schedule back to 11 games, and this genie will not get stuck back in the bottle.
So, we're stuck with what we're stuck with, as imperfect as it might be.
Other notes:
- As a Michigan fan you can 100% bet that I'm disappointed with Saturday's game. While it's very clear that Ohio State has a giant edge on Michigan right now it shouldn't be lost that Harbaugh has elevated Michigan to the status of 2nd best team in the B1G. Considering when he took over the team four years ago Big Blue was a bottom half B1G team, progress IS being made. What Michigan fans need to do is drown out the white noise of bad takes from controversy mongers like Finebaum and Stephen A. Smith and focus on where progress IS being made. I don't like losing to Ohio State any more than you do, but canning a 10-2 coach is never the right answer.
- That aTm and LSU played a 7 overtime game that ended 74-72 and now holds the title for highest scoring college game ever feels like an open challenge to the Big XII, especially for this weekend's Championship game between OU and Texas.
- Mack Brown is going back to North Carolina, Les Miles is headed to Kansas. At this rate hiring back older guys with coaching experience seems to be a trend. (Herm Edwards at ASU) Will it work? Who knows, but at least it could make it a little fun.
- Conference Championship games this weekend. I'm hoping for a narrow upset of Alabama by Georgia which would result in a CFP featuring the following 4 teams: Georgia, Notre Dame, Clemson, Alabama. Which would mean the Pac-12, B1G and Big XII get shut-out. Which would lead to wailing and gnashing of teeth.
"Rivalry" week, unlike SEC Buy Week, is typically filled with high-stakes match-ups that provide the public with a plethora of great finishes, back and forth games, and a surprise or three. This year?
Not so much.
The problems started in the early window, when The Game, The Iron Bowl and....Georgia vs. Georgia Tech all turned into laughers, especially in the 2nd half. I'll have more on Michigan later but, for now, lets just say that the SEC is exactly what we thought it was and we're back to 'Bama vs. Georgia in the SEC title game with them being the top two teams in the SEC and it's not close.
College football today has gentrified into distinct strata.
On top, you have Alabama and Clemson. They're miles ahead of everyone else and it's likely (although not a certainty) that they'll be the last two teams standing (again) when the CFP rolls around. After that you have a second tier: Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Georgia, Ohio State who are all pretty much interchangeable. The only reason the Irish have an edge in the polls is that most of the teams they played as "rivals" this year were relatively down. This doesn't mean that the Irish aren't any good, but do you really give them much of a chance against Clemson or Alabama?
After that comes the third tier. Teams like Michigan, Texas, Washington, Florida, LSU, West Virginia, Penn State, teams that are plenty good, and who might even pull the occasional upset against one of the big dogs, but teams that cannot quite put it together on a consistent basis.
After that it's a grab-bag of several teams who float in and out of the Top 25, before hitting the teams with six or seven wins who will fill out the bowl schedule and then you have the have-nots. The point is, outside of the 1st two tiers, the CFP has ensured that no one even matters. I've said it before and I'll say it again: The College Football Playoff is ruining college football and it needs to either be expanded or (preferably) killed off altogether.
Floating around this flotsam and jetsam of team rankings is UCF. Winners of 25 straight they're kind of hard to categorize because we really aren't that sure how good they really are. Not even going into the horrid leg injury suffered by McKinzie Milton, they're a team with a relatively weak strength of schedule who has done nothing but win, and sometimes win big. It's somewhat of a parlor game to make fun of them (especially by the eternally jealous Mountain West) but the fact is the committee should give them a chance against Alabama in the Playoff, but you can be guaranteed they will not.
Again, the CFP cannot continue to exist in its current form for much longer without suffering a massive crisis or confidence from the fans. An expansion to eight teams would help, but not resolve, many of the doubts about its validity (and, also, its integrity) but at this point getting away from it and reverting back to the old bowl system might be the best option. The only workable, above-board, 100% legitimate option is to expand to 16, with the 10 conference champions getting an automatic berth and six at-large teams. To do this however you'd need to shorten the schedule back to 11 games, and this genie will not get stuck back in the bottle.
So, we're stuck with what we're stuck with, as imperfect as it might be.
Other notes:
- As a Michigan fan you can 100% bet that I'm disappointed with Saturday's game. While it's very clear that Ohio State has a giant edge on Michigan right now it shouldn't be lost that Harbaugh has elevated Michigan to the status of 2nd best team in the B1G. Considering when he took over the team four years ago Big Blue was a bottom half B1G team, progress IS being made. What Michigan fans need to do is drown out the white noise of bad takes from controversy mongers like Finebaum and Stephen A. Smith and focus on where progress IS being made. I don't like losing to Ohio State any more than you do, but canning a 10-2 coach is never the right answer.
- That aTm and LSU played a 7 overtime game that ended 74-72 and now holds the title for highest scoring college game ever feels like an open challenge to the Big XII, especially for this weekend's Championship game between OU and Texas.
- Mack Brown is going back to North Carolina, Les Miles is headed to Kansas. At this rate hiring back older guys with coaching experience seems to be a trend. (Herm Edwards at ASU) Will it work? Who knows, but at least it could make it a little fun.
- Conference Championship games this weekend. I'm hoping for a narrow upset of Alabama by Georgia which would result in a CFP featuring the following 4 teams: Georgia, Notre Dame, Clemson, Alabama. Which would mean the Pac-12, B1G and Big XII get shut-out. Which would lead to wailing and gnashing of teeth.
Tuesday, November 20, 2018
The Shield: The Turkey Day 3 and OUT
Unlike with College Football, I've been treading water in the NFL this year. This is unusual for me as it's typically the other way around.
This week I'm keying on the 3 Thanksgiving Day games where I think there is opportunity to be found as some things are getting overlooked.
1. Chicago (-4) @ Detroit [45] - Pick: Chicago to COVER -4
The Bears look as if they're starting to round into playoff form, while the Lions are on-again/off-again and struggling to find consistency. Uh-Oh, the Lions were on last week. I see this as one of those "You're done eating Turkey and the game is not close so take a nap" kind of games. Chicago rolls.
2. Washington @ Dallas (-7.5) [40.5] - Pick: Washington to COVER +7.5
OK, I get it, Alex Smith went down last week in a pile of deja vu with a horrific season-ending leg injury that looked as bad as it was. But they didn't play AWFUL with Colt McCoy in as back-up and their defense is still pretty good. Last weekend's results notwithstanding this is still a poorly-coached, BAD Dallas Cowboys team that's being ran into the ground by the ego of their owner.
3. Atlana @ New Orleans (-13) [60] - Pick: New Orleans to COVER -13.
I GET that this is a HUGE line for the NFL. I get that Atlanta will be a desperate team. I get the short week, etc. And I don't care. The Saints can do something the Rams and Chiefs cannot: Play some defense to go along with all of the points they score. This is a damn good Saints team. I think we see how good on Thanksgiving evening while we're sneaking around looking for some leftover stuffing.
Game in which I have a rooting interest.
San Francisco @ Tampa Bay (-3.5) [55]
Tampa Bay is a tire-fire on offense right now, and they're throwing the mess that is Famous Jameis back into the fire. Despite all of their injuries the Niners have played well of late, and might even have a chance to pull the upset here.
Enjoy your Turkey, family and the games. Don't forget to pause for a minute to consider the deeper meaning behind the Holiday.
God Bless.
This week I'm keying on the 3 Thanksgiving Day games where I think there is opportunity to be found as some things are getting overlooked.
1. Chicago (-4) @ Detroit [45] - Pick: Chicago to COVER -4
The Bears look as if they're starting to round into playoff form, while the Lions are on-again/off-again and struggling to find consistency. Uh-Oh, the Lions were on last week. I see this as one of those "You're done eating Turkey and the game is not close so take a nap" kind of games. Chicago rolls.
2. Washington @ Dallas (-7.5) [40.5] - Pick: Washington to COVER +7.5
OK, I get it, Alex Smith went down last week in a pile of deja vu with a horrific season-ending leg injury that looked as bad as it was. But they didn't play AWFUL with Colt McCoy in as back-up and their defense is still pretty good. Last weekend's results notwithstanding this is still a poorly-coached, BAD Dallas Cowboys team that's being ran into the ground by the ego of their owner.
3. Atlana @ New Orleans (-13) [60] - Pick: New Orleans to COVER -13.
I GET that this is a HUGE line for the NFL. I get that Atlanta will be a desperate team. I get the short week, etc. And I don't care. The Saints can do something the Rams and Chiefs cannot: Play some defense to go along with all of the points they score. This is a damn good Saints team. I think we see how good on Thanksgiving evening while we're sneaking around looking for some leftover stuffing.
Game in which I have a rooting interest.
San Francisco @ Tampa Bay (-3.5) [55]
Tampa Bay is a tire-fire on offense right now, and they're throwing the mess that is Famous Jameis back into the fire. Despite all of their injuries the Niners have played well of late, and might even have a chance to pull the upset here.
Enjoy your Turkey, family and the games. Don't forget to pause for a minute to consider the deeper meaning behind the Holiday.
God Bless.
College Football: The Rivaly Week FIVE
This has been, without argument, one of my worst seasons in college football sports betting in quite some time. It's been bad, so last week I took a break. A much needed break. I went to Lake Charles, spent the weekend in the casino playing video poker and black-jack, and actually didn't lose. I did watch some of the games, Ohio State/Maryland Michigan/Indiana and parts of the LSU/Rice slaughter.
If you need to get away during college football season then SEC Buy Week is the time to do it. About the only notable game that I missed was OSU's win over West Virginia, but I did see parts of it at the bar.
So, don't worry about the season-long record (It's bad) let's focus on Rivalry Week and some fun things that might be in front of us....
1. Northern Illinois (-5.5) @ Western Michigan [51.5] - Pick: Northern Illinois to COVER -5.5
Western Michigan still gets bet as if P.J. Fleck is still the head coach there and they're rowing that damn boat. And it shows, they're 1-6 ATS in their last 7 while NIU is 5-2 during the same span. It's the same for NIU when they play at Western Michigan, they've covered 4 of the last 5. This is an NIU team that has locked up their division in the MAC so it's possible that they play it safe and go for injury avoidance, even so I still think they have enough to beat Western Michigan by at least a touchdown.
2. Houston @ Memphis (-9) [77] - Pick: Over 77
I get it, this is a huge number, but these two teams have gone over in 4 of their last six match-ups. Even without D'eriq King (our for the season) Houston still has a potent offense and neither team plays defense with much skill, even IF Ed Oliver comes back to the Cougars line-up, which he is rumored to do. Houston NEEDS a win here for the honor of playing UCF in the AAC Championship. A Memphis win leads to a potential 4-team tie for 1st place and utter chaos. Tulane and SMU should win their games, so it all comes down to this. I think Memphis wins, but Houston covers, and a crap-ton of points are scored.
3. Oklahoma (-1) @ West Virginia [81.5] - Pick: UNDER 81.5
This game is kryptonite for the spread better as both teams are sub-500 against the number in their last 6 games. If anything, I give the slight nod to West Virginia because they're playing at home and I'm not alone. This number opened at -3, but you probably missed that, so you're going to have to decide if you have confidence in the Mountaineers to win straight up. I don't, but I also don't think that 82 points are going to be scored in this game. It will get close to it for sure, but it feels more like a 31-28 type of game to me. Of course, given both of these teams I could have just given you the halftime score. IF THAT happens, this is an L. But I'm fairly confident it won't. Another fun note: IF WVU beats OU then WVU and Texas play in the Big XII championship, and the Big XII gets left out of the playoff.
4. Florida (-5) @ Florida State [53] - Pick: Florida to COVER -5
If you're not confident in Florida here, then you could alternatively take the over. Both of these teams have gone that way in 5 of their last 6. But Florida is playing for a potential NY6 Bowl game, if things break right, and while Florida State is playing for bowl eligibility I cannot see that happening as the Gators are the MUCH better team. This feels like a double digit win game to me, even considering how gross Florida's offense can be at times. Florida State is going to have to do some soul searching in the off-season regarding Willie Taggert. Personally, I think one of the reasons Jimbo Fisher cut bait to Texas aTm was that he knew the cupboard was bare. But does Florida State understand that?
5. Baylor @ Texas Tech (-6.5) [47.5] - Pick: Texas Tech to COVER -6.5
A moment's pause to thank the Big XII for saving what has otherwise been a fairly mundane and boring college football seasons. On paper this appears to be another one of those close games that could go either way, but looking behind the numbers Baylor, when losing, has lost badly. Texas Tech's defense is still not-good, but they're no-longer horrid and this might have been a much better team had their QB not struggled with a partially collapsed lung. I think this is a double-digit win game for Baylor who are still trying to figure out if Matt Rhule is the long-term solution for them or no. Call this the "hot-seat" bowl. The coach who loses will miss out on a bowl and might find himself sitting on one.
Other Games: (I'm not going to hit them all, just a few that interest me)
Auburn @ Alabama (-24) [53] - The idiots that run the Chic-Fil-A Twitter account placed this at the 1 seed in their "greatest rivalries of all-time" bracket, which is silly. Especially when you consider "the Game" was 2 and Army/Navy 3. Seriously? It won't be much this year as Alabama has succeeded in doing what few could in the past: They've sucked the joy out of the game completely through their dominance.
Louisiana State @ Texas aTm (-2) [47.5] - Kyle field at night, two teams facing off for 2nd place in the SEC West. LSU with a POSSIBLE NY6 bowl bid on the line. Texas aTm who desperately wants to compete with the Alabama's of the world fired Kevin Sumlin coming off an 7-5 season and paid tens of Millions of dollars to Jimbo Fisher who is likely to finish at 7-5 barring a win over LSU. Good investment Aggies.
Utah State @ Boise State (-30) [67.5] - Death, taxes and Boise State getting over bet at home. They Broncos were overrated coming into the year and it's pretty clear that Utah State was underrated. They're still chronically underrated by the CFP but that's a story for another time. I really think Utah State pulls the upset here but I'm not confident enough in that prediction to put it in my FIVE.
Games in which I have a rooting interest:
Nevada (-13) @ UNLV [63.5] - No team has disappointed me more than the Desert Rug Rats. I really thought they would make it to a bowl but a lack of defense, a broken offense, and a broken QB foot has placed them right back in the Mountain West Dungeon again, battling it out for one of the worst teams in the country. Coach Sanchez is likely to stay because he's friends with the Mega Donor Fertitta brothers, but he shouldn't. A team serious about winning would let him go after this disaster.
And finally.
THE GAME:
Michigan (-4) @ Ohio State [57].
Yes, I know, Ohio State has not looked good of late. Michigan appears to be finally hitting it's stride. But I've said this before and I'll say it again: The next time Michigan beats Ohio State I'm going to be wrong about it. Because I need them to prove to me that the CAN beat OSU before I pick them to do it. A win in this game gives Michigan a rematch with Northwestern in the B1G title game. A loss let's OSU play them and all of the Harbaugh questions come back to the front of the line.
Go.Blue.
Go.Blue.
Enjoy the games.
If you need to get away during college football season then SEC Buy Week is the time to do it. About the only notable game that I missed was OSU's win over West Virginia, but I did see parts of it at the bar.
So, don't worry about the season-long record (It's bad) let's focus on Rivalry Week and some fun things that might be in front of us....
1. Northern Illinois (-5.5) @ Western Michigan [51.5] - Pick: Northern Illinois to COVER -5.5
Western Michigan still gets bet as if P.J. Fleck is still the head coach there and they're rowing that damn boat. And it shows, they're 1-6 ATS in their last 7 while NIU is 5-2 during the same span. It's the same for NIU when they play at Western Michigan, they've covered 4 of the last 5. This is an NIU team that has locked up their division in the MAC so it's possible that they play it safe and go for injury avoidance, even so I still think they have enough to beat Western Michigan by at least a touchdown.
2. Houston @ Memphis (-9) [77] - Pick: Over 77
I get it, this is a huge number, but these two teams have gone over in 4 of their last six match-ups. Even without D'eriq King (our for the season) Houston still has a potent offense and neither team plays defense with much skill, even IF Ed Oliver comes back to the Cougars line-up, which he is rumored to do. Houston NEEDS a win here for the honor of playing UCF in the AAC Championship. A Memphis win leads to a potential 4-team tie for 1st place and utter chaos. Tulane and SMU should win their games, so it all comes down to this. I think Memphis wins, but Houston covers, and a crap-ton of points are scored.
3. Oklahoma (-1) @ West Virginia [81.5] - Pick: UNDER 81.5
This game is kryptonite for the spread better as both teams are sub-500 against the number in their last 6 games. If anything, I give the slight nod to West Virginia because they're playing at home and I'm not alone. This number opened at -3, but you probably missed that, so you're going to have to decide if you have confidence in the Mountaineers to win straight up. I don't, but I also don't think that 82 points are going to be scored in this game. It will get close to it for sure, but it feels more like a 31-28 type of game to me. Of course, given both of these teams I could have just given you the halftime score. IF THAT happens, this is an L. But I'm fairly confident it won't. Another fun note: IF WVU beats OU then WVU and Texas play in the Big XII championship, and the Big XII gets left out of the playoff.
4. Florida (-5) @ Florida State [53] - Pick: Florida to COVER -5
If you're not confident in Florida here, then you could alternatively take the over. Both of these teams have gone that way in 5 of their last 6. But Florida is playing for a potential NY6 Bowl game, if things break right, and while Florida State is playing for bowl eligibility I cannot see that happening as the Gators are the MUCH better team. This feels like a double digit win game to me, even considering how gross Florida's offense can be at times. Florida State is going to have to do some soul searching in the off-season regarding Willie Taggert. Personally, I think one of the reasons Jimbo Fisher cut bait to Texas aTm was that he knew the cupboard was bare. But does Florida State understand that?
5. Baylor @ Texas Tech (-6.5) [47.5] - Pick: Texas Tech to COVER -6.5
A moment's pause to thank the Big XII for saving what has otherwise been a fairly mundane and boring college football seasons. On paper this appears to be another one of those close games that could go either way, but looking behind the numbers Baylor, when losing, has lost badly. Texas Tech's defense is still not-good, but they're no-longer horrid and this might have been a much better team had their QB not struggled with a partially collapsed lung. I think this is a double-digit win game for Baylor who are still trying to figure out if Matt Rhule is the long-term solution for them or no. Call this the "hot-seat" bowl. The coach who loses will miss out on a bowl and might find himself sitting on one.
Other Games: (I'm not going to hit them all, just a few that interest me)
Auburn @ Alabama (-24) [53] - The idiots that run the Chic-Fil-A Twitter account placed this at the 1 seed in their "greatest rivalries of all-time" bracket, which is silly. Especially when you consider "the Game" was 2 and Army/Navy 3. Seriously? It won't be much this year as Alabama has succeeded in doing what few could in the past: They've sucked the joy out of the game completely through their dominance.
Louisiana State @ Texas aTm (-2) [47.5] - Kyle field at night, two teams facing off for 2nd place in the SEC West. LSU with a POSSIBLE NY6 bowl bid on the line. Texas aTm who desperately wants to compete with the Alabama's of the world fired Kevin Sumlin coming off an 7-5 season and paid tens of Millions of dollars to Jimbo Fisher who is likely to finish at 7-5 barring a win over LSU. Good investment Aggies.
Utah State @ Boise State (-30) [67.5] - Death, taxes and Boise State getting over bet at home. They Broncos were overrated coming into the year and it's pretty clear that Utah State was underrated. They're still chronically underrated by the CFP but that's a story for another time. I really think Utah State pulls the upset here but I'm not confident enough in that prediction to put it in my FIVE.
Games in which I have a rooting interest:
Nevada (-13) @ UNLV [63.5] - No team has disappointed me more than the Desert Rug Rats. I really thought they would make it to a bowl but a lack of defense, a broken offense, and a broken QB foot has placed them right back in the Mountain West Dungeon again, battling it out for one of the worst teams in the country. Coach Sanchez is likely to stay because he's friends with the Mega Donor Fertitta brothers, but he shouldn't. A team serious about winning would let him go after this disaster.
And finally.
THE GAME:
Michigan (-4) @ Ohio State [57].
Yes, I know, Ohio State has not looked good of late. Michigan appears to be finally hitting it's stride. But I've said this before and I'll say it again: The next time Michigan beats Ohio State I'm going to be wrong about it. Because I need them to prove to me that the CAN beat OSU before I pick them to do it. A win in this game gives Michigan a rematch with Northwestern in the B1G title game. A loss let's OSU play them and all of the Harbaugh questions come back to the front of the line.
Go.Blue.
Go.Blue.
Enjoy the games.
Thursday, November 15, 2018
If Ted Leonsis is Right, Texas Could be at a HUGE Disadvantage.
Ted Leonsis on the future of sports betting. USA Today
Yes, it involves reimagining. EVERYTHING involves reimagining. It's a buzz word, just ignore it.
IF what Leonsis says turns out to be even 70% true, then Texas could find itself in a competitive disadvantage going forward, since the State does not allow, and is unlikely to allow, any betting other than the Lottery and horse racing, the latter of which the Texas Legislature is trying it's level best to shutter.
Other states, such as Utah, who have an aversion to any betting would also find themselves behind, both monetarily and from a fan-experience stand-point as teams in gambling-progressive states open up vast new streams of revenue for team owners allowing for bigger expenditures, better rosters and better facilities than their poorer brethren have the ability to afford.
This does not mean that Texas, or other states, should open up their borders to casino gaming. In fact, I'm on record suggesting that Texas should not. I was behind it initially, but the more I thought about it I could foresee Texas getting it wrong, the luxury "resorts" everyone envisioned falling victim to the Texas proclivity for doing everything on the cheap, where people see a Texas Bellagio rising from the prairie I see a bunch of sawdust joints. And if you've never been in a true sawdust joint (also known as grind joints) they are among the most depressing places in the world.
Texas doesn't need that, and they don't need the problems that come with gambling addiction, drug use, prostitution and property crime that accompanies it. So, no to casino gaming then.
But, and this is a rather big but, Texas COULD benefit from legalizing what tens of thousands of Texans are already partaking in illegally: Sports betting, both physically and on-line.
Illegal sports wagering is a Billion dollar industry. A large portion of that Billion is spent right here in the Lone Star State. Local sports-talk radio hosts openly talk about getting their action down online. So, it's clear that the State doesn't have much of an appetite for stopping the practice, Texas might as well legalize it, tax it, and decriminalize all of those who are participating.
Will the tax on this "save Texas Schools"? No, of course not, and gambling proponents who say that are putting their heads in the sand. Are Louisiana's schools awash in gaming cash? No. Are Oklahoma's tribes richer than the dreams of Midas? Of course not. Are Nevada schools built with the finest Italian marble? No, in fact, each of those states has some of the lowest education scores in America. Granted, most of that is due to bad political leadership, but the idea that you can just throw money at a government problem and make it go away seems to be discredited in every area of life except for the Government.
We are governed by idiots, elected by us and then treated as experts in the field. But, if they're idiots, what in the hell does that make us?
The arena where his Washington Capitals and Wizards play opens an hour or so before games and empties out quickly after, but he expects all that will change in years to come as arenas become casinos of a sort — open nearly around the clock to capture a coming mania for legalized sports betting.
“I think you will see buildings like Capital One Arena being reimagined,” Leonsis tells USA TODAY. “So we want people to come into our buildings to have lunch, to have dinner when there’s not a game in the building, watch other games on television, do research, bet, wager — and look at our buildings as really alive, dynamic sports cathedrals.”
Yes, it involves reimagining. EVERYTHING involves reimagining. It's a buzz word, just ignore it.
IF what Leonsis says turns out to be even 70% true, then Texas could find itself in a competitive disadvantage going forward, since the State does not allow, and is unlikely to allow, any betting other than the Lottery and horse racing, the latter of which the Texas Legislature is trying it's level best to shutter.
Other states, such as Utah, who have an aversion to any betting would also find themselves behind, both monetarily and from a fan-experience stand-point as teams in gambling-progressive states open up vast new streams of revenue for team owners allowing for bigger expenditures, better rosters and better facilities than their poorer brethren have the ability to afford.
This does not mean that Texas, or other states, should open up their borders to casino gaming. In fact, I'm on record suggesting that Texas should not. I was behind it initially, but the more I thought about it I could foresee Texas getting it wrong, the luxury "resorts" everyone envisioned falling victim to the Texas proclivity for doing everything on the cheap, where people see a Texas Bellagio rising from the prairie I see a bunch of sawdust joints. And if you've never been in a true sawdust joint (also known as grind joints) they are among the most depressing places in the world.
Texas doesn't need that, and they don't need the problems that come with gambling addiction, drug use, prostitution and property crime that accompanies it. So, no to casino gaming then.
But, and this is a rather big but, Texas COULD benefit from legalizing what tens of thousands of Texans are already partaking in illegally: Sports betting, both physically and on-line.
Illegal sports wagering is a Billion dollar industry. A large portion of that Billion is spent right here in the Lone Star State. Local sports-talk radio hosts openly talk about getting their action down online. So, it's clear that the State doesn't have much of an appetite for stopping the practice, Texas might as well legalize it, tax it, and decriminalize all of those who are participating.
Will the tax on this "save Texas Schools"? No, of course not, and gambling proponents who say that are putting their heads in the sand. Are Louisiana's schools awash in gaming cash? No. Are Oklahoma's tribes richer than the dreams of Midas? Of course not. Are Nevada schools built with the finest Italian marble? No, in fact, each of those states has some of the lowest education scores in America. Granted, most of that is due to bad political leadership, but the idea that you can just throw money at a government problem and make it go away seems to be discredited in every area of life except for the Government.
We are governed by idiots, elected by us and then treated as experts in the field. But, if they're idiots, what in the hell does that make us?
Reminder: If you have a casino host: They hate you.
Meet the Man Who Wins Big When You Lose it all in Vegas. Thrillist
Granted, some of this is bombast for the reporter, Cyr trying to make himself out to be more important, and closer to the ears of giants, than he really is. But a LOT of it is real.
I've seen it happen there.
And that's Vegas, a place that will chew you up and spit you out if you let it.
If, like many people he described in the story, you CAN'T set, and most importantly stick to, a budget when gambling then don't.
If you say you're only willing to lose $30K then only deposit $30K, don't deposit $100K and think that, in the fog of adrenaline and alcohol that you're going to have self control.
If you have a casino host don't gamble for comps. (As a matter of fact, don't gamble to chase comps in any situation. Self-comping [i.e. paying for your stuff] is always a better option)
I'm neither a high, or low, roller. I'm what the casinos call a "mid-low-margin" gambler. I only play games where I find the lowest house edge (Some video poker, Baccarat, Black Jack and the outer bets on Craps) but I do bet more per trip than the average tourist. I'm nowhere near the players listed in this article (my bets are $10 - $25 for example) but I play long and I like to think I play well. I also pocket my winnings and limit my losses through an envelope system that only gives me a portion of my bank roll to play with per day.
Here's how that works:
Let's say I'm taking $2.5K with which to gamble on a 5 day trip. I will divide the $2.5K into five envelopes, $500 each day. At the beginning of they day I take the money out of the daily envelope, and put any money left over from the day before in the take-home envelope. Then I go out and gamble with that $500 for the day. At the end of the day/beginning of the next day, repeat the process.
If you can do this, and be successfully NOT open the other day's envelopes, you will almost always bring a portion of your bankroll home with you. IF you can pocket any wins over a certain amount (say $100) then you can most times go home from Vegas only a slight loser or, infrequently, a winner.
Of course, when dealing with money you have to be careful, I'm obviously not flying to Vegas with $2.5K in my wallet and neither should you. I do have access to my money in Vegas and you should figure out a way to make that happen for you, without going to Casino ATM's which often charge transactions fees of $7.99 or higher.
Most importantly, and this is key, DON'T under any circumstances, take out more money during the trip if you hit a bad spell. And you WILL hit a bad spell. It's gambling, the odds are with the house, and eventually that edge is going to catch up with you.
The good news about gambling at my level is that I typically fly under the radar of most hosts. $500 per day is not going to move the casino needle any/ Yes, I get offers that include free rooms, free play, and resort credit but I get and redeem them online or through the kiosk. I would be quite happy never being on the radar of any host in Vegas ever. But Given my level of play that money is going to last me all day, and usually then some, provided I don't hit an epic slump.
I get free drinks, I pay for my dinners and wine, shows, or almost anything else that I want to do, and I never have to deal with the Cyr's of Vegas. I gamble well below my financial ability and so should you.
As a matter of fact, if you cannot gamble like this then it's quite possible that being inside a casino is not the correct place for you. Take up fishing, gardening or some-such.
Your life will be much better for it.
But, if you CAN stick to something like this, hold to a budget and not bust it, (whatever the level may be) then you might just find your Vegas experience improved. Getting stuck-in the first day is awful, only being a little bit down? Not so much.
Steve Cyr might not like it all that much, but you'll be a better educated and happier gambler, one who sees gambling losses as what they should be: The price for being entertained for a few hours rather than a speed-bump on the way to winning.
You're probably not going to win. Only the house wins consistently.
Granted, some of this is bombast for the reporter, Cyr trying to make himself out to be more important, and closer to the ears of giants, than he really is. But a LOT of it is real.
I've seen it happen there.
And that's Vegas, a place that will chew you up and spit you out if you let it.
If, like many people he described in the story, you CAN'T set, and most importantly stick to, a budget when gambling then don't.
If you say you're only willing to lose $30K then only deposit $30K, don't deposit $100K and think that, in the fog of adrenaline and alcohol that you're going to have self control.
If you have a casino host don't gamble for comps. (As a matter of fact, don't gamble to chase comps in any situation. Self-comping [i.e. paying for your stuff] is always a better option)
I'm neither a high, or low, roller. I'm what the casinos call a "mid-low-margin" gambler. I only play games where I find the lowest house edge (Some video poker, Baccarat, Black Jack and the outer bets on Craps) but I do bet more per trip than the average tourist. I'm nowhere near the players listed in this article (my bets are $10 - $25 for example) but I play long and I like to think I play well. I also pocket my winnings and limit my losses through an envelope system that only gives me a portion of my bank roll to play with per day.
Here's how that works:
Let's say I'm taking $2.5K with which to gamble on a 5 day trip. I will divide the $2.5K into five envelopes, $500 each day. At the beginning of they day I take the money out of the daily envelope, and put any money left over from the day before in the take-home envelope. Then I go out and gamble with that $500 for the day. At the end of the day/beginning of the next day, repeat the process.
If you can do this, and be successfully NOT open the other day's envelopes, you will almost always bring a portion of your bankroll home with you. IF you can pocket any wins over a certain amount (say $100) then you can most times go home from Vegas only a slight loser or, infrequently, a winner.
Of course, when dealing with money you have to be careful, I'm obviously not flying to Vegas with $2.5K in my wallet and neither should you. I do have access to my money in Vegas and you should figure out a way to make that happen for you, without going to Casino ATM's which often charge transactions fees of $7.99 or higher.
Most importantly, and this is key, DON'T under any circumstances, take out more money during the trip if you hit a bad spell. And you WILL hit a bad spell. It's gambling, the odds are with the house, and eventually that edge is going to catch up with you.
The good news about gambling at my level is that I typically fly under the radar of most hosts. $500 per day is not going to move the casino needle any/ Yes, I get offers that include free rooms, free play, and resort credit but I get and redeem them online or through the kiosk. I would be quite happy never being on the radar of any host in Vegas ever. But Given my level of play that money is going to last me all day, and usually then some, provided I don't hit an epic slump.
I get free drinks, I pay for my dinners and wine, shows, or almost anything else that I want to do, and I never have to deal with the Cyr's of Vegas. I gamble well below my financial ability and so should you.
As a matter of fact, if you cannot gamble like this then it's quite possible that being inside a casino is not the correct place for you. Take up fishing, gardening or some-such.
Your life will be much better for it.
But, if you CAN stick to something like this, hold to a budget and not bust it, (whatever the level may be) then you might just find your Vegas experience improved. Getting stuck-in the first day is awful, only being a little bit down? Not so much.
Steve Cyr might not like it all that much, but you'll be a better educated and happier gambler, one who sees gambling losses as what they should be: The price for being entertained for a few hours rather than a speed-bump on the way to winning.
You're probably not going to win. Only the house wins consistently.
Wednesday, November 14, 2018
UPDATE: No FIVE or Three and OUT this week.
Real life, and real illness, (and a pretty terrible college football schedule) have gotten in the way.
I MIGHT try to take a superficial look at some games tomorrow but I just don't have the time needed this week to really dig in.
My apologies for not giving you picks to fade this weekend.
I MIGHT try to take a superficial look at some games tomorrow but I just don't have the time needed this week to really dig in.
My apologies for not giving you picks to fade this weekend.
Wednesday, November 7, 2018
The Week 11 FIVE and the Week 10 Three and OUT
One of these weeks I'd love to hit on both college and the NFL, but right now my college picks are just sad.
The Week 11 FIVE:
Last Week: 1-4 - Season total: 20-29-1
1. Ohio (-4.5) @ Miami (OH) [61.5] - Pick: Ohio to cover -4.5
2. Fresno State (-2.5) @ Boise State [54] - Pick: OVER 54
3. Troy (-1) @ Georgia Southern [47.5] - Pick: Troy to cover -1
4. Temple @ Houston (-4.5) [69] - Pick: OVER 69
5. Texas (-1.5) @ Texas Tech [63.5] - Pick: OVER 63.5
The Week 10 Three and OUT:
Last Week: 3-0 Season Total: 14-13
1. Washington @ Tampa Bay (-3) [51.5] - Pick: OVER 51.5
2. Buffalo @ NY Jets (-7.5) [37] - Pick: Buffalo to cover -7.5
3. LA Chargers (-10) @ Oakland [50.5] Pick: Chargers to cover -10.
Games in which I have a rooting interest this weekend:
NY Giants @ San Francisco (-3) [47] - The 49ers are riding with the rookie QB against a team with a pretty good defense and one of the worst offenses in the league not named the Bills. New York is imploding, Niners could win big here.
UNLV @ SDSU (-21.5) [54.5] - The Tony Sanchez experiment has failed. The only thing to do now is play out the string. I would have fired Sanchez last week, after he officially missed qualifying for a bowl but UNLV isn't ran like that. Sanchez is very tight with the Fertitta brothers, so he probably gets a season or two more.
And finally.....
Michigan (-39) @ Rutgers [48] - Prediction: Michigan is going to go over all by their lonesome.
The Week 11 FIVE:
Last Week: 1-4 - Season total: 20-29-1
1. Ohio (-4.5) @ Miami (OH) [61.5] - Pick: Ohio to cover -4.5
2. Fresno State (-2.5) @ Boise State [54] - Pick: OVER 54
3. Troy (-1) @ Georgia Southern [47.5] - Pick: Troy to cover -1
4. Temple @ Houston (-4.5) [69] - Pick: OVER 69
5. Texas (-1.5) @ Texas Tech [63.5] - Pick: OVER 63.5
The Week 10 Three and OUT:
Last Week: 3-0 Season Total: 14-13
1. Washington @ Tampa Bay (-3) [51.5] - Pick: OVER 51.5
2. Buffalo @ NY Jets (-7.5) [37] - Pick: Buffalo to cover -7.5
3. LA Chargers (-10) @ Oakland [50.5] Pick: Chargers to cover -10.
Games in which I have a rooting interest this weekend:
NY Giants @ San Francisco (-3) [47] - The 49ers are riding with the rookie QB against a team with a pretty good defense and one of the worst offenses in the league not named the Bills. New York is imploding, Niners could win big here.
UNLV @ SDSU (-21.5) [54.5] - The Tony Sanchez experiment has failed. The only thing to do now is play out the string. I would have fired Sanchez last week, after he officially missed qualifying for a bowl but UNLV isn't ran like that. Sanchez is very tight with the Fertitta brothers, so he probably gets a season or two more.
And finally.....
Michigan (-39) @ Rutgers [48] - Prediction: Michigan is going to go over all by their lonesome.
First they came for the Greyhounds.
Florida, a state where people eat each others faces on Highway on-ramps, made the decision last night to ban betting on Greyhounds by 2021.
Florida Approves Constitutional Amendment to Ban Greyhound Racing. WSVN.com
In Florida amendments need 60% of the votes to pass, Prop 13 passed with approximately 69% of the popular vote. In fact, it appears that the only Florida proposal not to pass was the one to increase the homestead exemption.
So super-majorities of Floridians agree on increasing taxes, restoring voting rights to felons and ending dog racing.
"Bah, this is just Florida" you might be tempted to say, "there's no way this can bleed into other, sane, states."
You would be wrong.
Since most Greyhound racing was centered in Florida it's more than likely this decision signals the death knell for the sport. Granted, given the way the industry policed itself (Dogs with cocaine in their system, poor kenneling conditions, deaths, etc.) there's an argument to be made that it's an industry whose end is due. This doesn't change the fact that hundreds, if not thousands, of dogs are going to be euthanized now, or that many people are going to find themselves unemployed due to circumstances some of them had no control over.
I've not bet Greyhounds in many years, but that doesn't mean I want to live in a world where Greyhound racing doesn't exist.
A more immediate concern for many should be how this could potentially impact horse racing. Because we're in a time where the idiots from PeTA are starting to hold-sway over even right-thinking people when it comes to sport and especially animal sports.
If horse racing is next in Florida? Some people might say 'no big deal' but it would be because the Nation's most important track (Gulfstream) is housed there, as is Tampa Bay Downs and others of less importance but still note-worthy.
It becomes incumbent on horse-racing leadership to clean up the rough edges of the sport, to get a handle on doping, to not allow trainers to run animals that are in dodgy physical condition and to work to limit life-threatening injuries.
Only through efforts such as this will horse racing survive.
Florida Approves Constitutional Amendment to Ban Greyhound Racing. WSVN.com
In Florida amendments need 60% of the votes to pass, Prop 13 passed with approximately 69% of the popular vote. In fact, it appears that the only Florida proposal not to pass was the one to increase the homestead exemption.
So super-majorities of Floridians agree on increasing taxes, restoring voting rights to felons and ending dog racing.
"Bah, this is just Florida" you might be tempted to say, "there's no way this can bleed into other, sane, states."
You would be wrong.
Since most Greyhound racing was centered in Florida it's more than likely this decision signals the death knell for the sport. Granted, given the way the industry policed itself (Dogs with cocaine in their system, poor kenneling conditions, deaths, etc.) there's an argument to be made that it's an industry whose end is due. This doesn't change the fact that hundreds, if not thousands, of dogs are going to be euthanized now, or that many people are going to find themselves unemployed due to circumstances some of them had no control over.
I've not bet Greyhounds in many years, but that doesn't mean I want to live in a world where Greyhound racing doesn't exist.
A more immediate concern for many should be how this could potentially impact horse racing. Because we're in a time where the idiots from PeTA are starting to hold-sway over even right-thinking people when it comes to sport and especially animal sports.
If horse racing is next in Florida? Some people might say 'no big deal' but it would be because the Nation's most important track (Gulfstream) is housed there, as is Tampa Bay Downs and others of less importance but still note-worthy.
It becomes incumbent on horse-racing leadership to clean up the rough edges of the sport, to get a handle on doping, to not allow trainers to run animals that are in dodgy physical condition and to work to limit life-threatening injuries.
Only through efforts such as this will horse racing survive.
Saturday, November 3, 2018
Breeder's Cup Saturday: Thoughts and Selections
While Friday is a day that gives us an idea of the future, with all of the Juvenile races, Saturday is for telling us who's on top right now as 3 year old and older horses battle it out not only for wins, but also for the potential to be the champion horse of the year in their division. The only exception to this is for horse of the year. The winner of the Classic will not get that, it's going to Justify, this year's Triple Crown winner who is, sadly, retired and not racing today.
Breeder's Cup Filly and Mare Sprint.
With the departure of Dream Tree, this looks like a match race between Marley's Freedom, who drew an awful post, and Selcourt, who drew a great post. I have another horse for the win however, because I'm thinking the odds on the top two are going to be very short.
1. Selcourt (4-1) - Coming off a long layoff this filly's last three races were wins, including a strong showing in the Grade II Santa Monica, where she took the lead early and drew away from ML favorite Marley's Freedom.
5. Golden Mischief (10-1) - Comes back a month after winning the Grade II Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes over a field that included many horses not only in this race, but in other BC weekend races. Will need to improve some to win here, but good odds should be available.
13. Marley's Freedom (8/5) - Could have easily have packed it in while getting a rough trip in the Grade I Ballerina but dug in and dusted a pretty solid field in the Ballerina. This could be a horse that's hitting her prime at just the right time.
My Bets:
$5 Win - 5
$1 Tri Box - 1-5-13 ($6)
Breeder's Cup Turf Sprint
One of last year's more fun races, which included a wild finish, 11+11all of the major players are back from that romp, including a couple of new-shooters who I feel might have a chance.
5 - Disco Partner (7-2) - Third in last year's race this horse has been up and down since then with two wins, two thirds and one race off the board. Has trouble putting together back-to-back solid races, and is coming off a win.
9 - Stormy Liberal (4-1) - Globe-hopped after winning this race last year with limited success, but is coming off three straight wins which suggests that Stormy Liberal is rounding into form here.
11 - World of Trouble (6-1) - Has only finished off the board once in Stakes races, a 4th in the 7f Woody Stephens. Seems to like these shorter races however and I think there's a real chance an upset can be pulled here.
12 - Richard's Boy (12-1) - Hasn't won a race since way back in January 2017. Either hits the board or finishes 6th seemingly. I think 6th is the more likely spot here given the strength of the field.
14 - Conquest Tsunami (6-1) - I've always thought that this horse's best distances were at the sprinting level but the connections keep trying to stretch him out, often to bad results. Might put him at the bottom of my exotic here but not much else.
My Bets:
$5 Win - 11
$1 Spr - 5-9-11/5-9-11/5-9-11/14 ($6)
Dirt Mile
At Churchill this will be ran as a one-turn mile and their is a prohibitive favorite that you're going to have to try and beat. Fortunately, I think their are a few candidates to do so.
1. City of Light (5-2) - This son of Quality Road looked just OK barely holding on for second last time out at 7f. Seemed to tire significantly at the wire which could be a concern at a mile.
6. Seeking the Soul (5-1) - One of three runners in this race that are coming off a win. For seeking the Soul that was the Grade III Ack Ack Stakes. I like the positioning here and think this horse comes in with a strong chance.
7. Firenze Fire (6-1) - While on the Derby Trail I commented that I thought this horse's best distance might be a mile. Has won at this distance and is coming off a win at 7f. Another horse that I like a lot in this position.
10. Catalina Cruiser (8-5) - This is the justified prohibitive favorite considering this horse has done nothing but win, and win big, of late. IF Catalina Cruiser runs his race this is all but over. Still, this is a larger field than he's been used to and that outside post at least raises some questions.
My Bets:
$5 Win - 6
$5 Win - 7
Filly And Mare Turf
Many are calling this the Chad Brown Invitational but I think there's a chance (or two) to beat him. Not that I'm betting heavily on it, I'll still be keying on a Chad Brown horse, just not the one most will. This is the race where I'm going to try and hit a grand slam.
1. Fourstar Crook (5-1) A Chad Brown Turf horse, coming off a Grade I win. You'll notice a repeating pattern in this race. I do like this one's chances.
3. Wild Illusion (7-2) One of the non-Brown runners that's in with a big chance. This British runner is helmed by William Buick, who's been on fire over in Britain of late and is entering this weekend supremely confident.
6. Sistercharlie (3-1) Viewed by many as being the best Brown runner in this field, also coming off a Grade I win, against a solid field, she will not be easy to beat.
9. A Raving Beauty (5-1) The last of the Chad Brown runners coming off of a Grade one win, and probably the one that observers give the least chance of winning. Still, has to factor in your exotics.
12. Santa Monica (15-1) The "overlooked" Brown runner who has never won at the Grade I level but who has won at the distance and has done well at even longer. I'm taking a stab at a long shot here hoping that this Filly can pull a shocker.
My Bets:
$5 Win - 12
$2 Spr 6/3/1/9 & 12 ($4)
Sprint
For my money this is the most exciting race on the card. Yes, I know that all of the press goes to the classic but, excepting XY Jet, all of the top sprinters are here, and they will be battling for Sprinter of the Year.
1. Whitmore (6-1) - Seemingly never runs a bad race and should be right around the winners at the finish. Not entirely sure he has enough raw speed to keep up with the top horses, but could sweep everyone up if the race breaks down.
2. Promises Fulfilled (6-1) - A jet disguised as a horse. Should rocket out to the lead, the only question is: can he hang on?
5. Imperial Hint (9-5) - Against this field I think 9-5 is way too short. Unless the odds go North this won't be my win play but will be in my exotics.
8. Limousine Liberal (6-1) - Maybe a step slow against the big 4 in this race? But will be hanging around the bottom of my exotics in case one of them falters.
9. Roy H (5-2) - I THINK this is the horse to beat but the 9th post position is a bit of a worry.
My Bets:
$5 Win - 2
$1 Tri 5-9/1-2-5-9/1-2-5-9-8 ($18)
Mile
Possibly the most evenly matched race on the card, and the presence of a 5-1 ML favorite bears that out. There's also the fact that none of these horses are what one would call a bastion of consistency.
1. One Master (12-1) - Won the Grade I Prix de la Foret over many of the runners in this race, yet is getting no love here. Love the odds, will at least take a stab and include in my exotics
4. Polydream (Scr) - The Morning Line favorite by default has scratched. This opens up the field even further. Also out of this race: Hunt.
5. Oscar Performance (6-1) - Has a recent pattern of winning, finishing 9th, winning, finishing 9th. Is coming off a win. Not here.
10. Catapult (6-1) - Has finished either 1st or 2nd in his last 5 races. Seems to be in good form and if he can run as he has recently, should factor heavily in this race.
12. Analyze It (6-1) - Another contender here who's form seems to be getting progressively worse. Had three straight wins, followed by three straight 2nds, and then a 4th.
13. Gustav Klimt (10-1) - In a race with no clear favorite I'm going to settle on the Aidan O'Brien trained runner with a history of never running a dog race. I like Ryan Moore in the irons as well. And the odds.
My Bets:
$5 Win - 13
$5 Win - 1
$1 Exa Box - 1-10-12-13 ($12)
Distaff
The much anticipated duel between last year's winner Abel Tasman and 3 year old Filly of the year candidate Monomoy Girl might just get upset by a European invader.
2. Abel Tasman (7-2) - It's Bob Baffert and Mike Smith teaming up in a big race, exclude this horse at your peril.
5. Wonder Gadot (15-1) - Only finished a length behind Monomoy Girl last time out. Draw a line through the Travers where she hated the Spa and was over matched. I like this horse here a lot.
7. Midnight Bisou (6-1) - Has never beaten Monomoy Girl across the line despite being given the win the last time out in the Cotillion. Still, they've dueled and it's been close almost every time so you have to include her.
11. Monomoy Girl (2-1) - The rightful favorite here. She's pretty much won everything she's run in this year except the Cotillion where she was (questionably) disqualified to 2nd. Too short of odds for a win bet, but should be at the top of your exotics.
My Bets:
$5 Win - 5
$1 Tri Box 2-5-7-11 ($24)
Turf
The question in this race is whether or not Enable can overcome history and become the first Arc de Triomphe winner to win here. Once again however we're going to get too short odds for a win bet, so we'll look to pull a massive upset and use Enable in our exotics.
1. Talismanic (12-1) - Finished way back from Enable in the Arc De Triomphe but has ran well on turf pretty much everywhere else. Not sure he can win, but should be in the bottom of your exotics.
2. Enable (EVEN) - Is hoping to make this a coronation, might have to battle off some challengers to do so. Still, this is an excellent turf horse who hasn't lost at a mile and a half in a long, long time. Too small odds straight up, but a must on top of your exotics.
4. Robert Bruce (10-1) - Looking for somewhere to land other than Enable I settled on this colt whose finished 1st-6th-1st-2nd in his last four races. Hasn't won at this distance yet, but if he runs a big one this could be the upset of the day.
10. Hi Happy (20-1) - This Argentinian bred, Todd Pletcher trained horse hasn't won in a while, but he's tough and seems to always be hanging around. Probably not a win bet for me but he might help juice up the bottom of the exotics pools.
12. Waldgeist (9-2) - This runner is intriguing a lot of people and appears to be the "sharp" horse in the race. Typically this means that the odds get too depressed to really take seriously but it's the stable-mate of Talismanic and has some good recent form so if the price is right you might want to give him a peek.
My Bets:
$5 Win - 4
$1 Tri - 2/12-4-1/12-4-1-10 ($9)
And finally......
The Breeder's Cup Classic
While there is a little bit of "what if" surrounding this race (what IF Justify was running? etc.) it's still a packed field and it should still be a very active betting race. There is a clear favorite and a host of horses that could pull medium to giant upsets. Here's the full field.
1. Thunder Snow (12-1) - Is best known by the casual fan as the horse that threw a fit in the 2017 Kentucky Derby, He's shown flashes of brilliance since then, most notably winning the Dubai World Cup, but he's inconsistent and just as likely to finish out of the money as he is to win. IF he can put it together he's supremely talented and could even contend for the win.
2. Roaring Lion (20-1) - He could wind up being the public favorite as he's a cool horse with a good personality who has won his last four races overseas. Will that form translate into victory at Churchill? History is against him.
3. Catholic Boy (8-1) - Shocked5/ a lot of people winning the 2018 Travers and would need to replicate that stalking trip to have a chance to win here. I think he's going to find there's too much speed in this race and have difficulty hanging in.
4. Gunnevera (20-1) - A tough, gritty horse that always seems to hang around the bottom of the exotics in graded stakes races but can't break through. He'll need to improve to beat the best here but a lot of people will be rooting for him.
5. Lone Sailor (30-1) - Has a habit of hanging around in big races but has never really beaten any horse of the quality you'll find at the top of this field. He's a sentimental favorite due to his connections to the late Tom Benson, former umbrella-wielding, and in-the-luxury-box-dancing, owner of the New Orleans Saints. Would need to improve mightily to contend here.
6. McKinzie (6-1) - Looked every bit the Derby contender back in March before taking a six month sabbatical due to an injury, in his come-back race, the Grade I Pennsylvania Derby, he won. Should be among the leaders. Plus, this is the Baffert/Smith combination that's seemingly been winning everything these days.
7. West Coast (5-1) - There was a five race stretch in 2017 when it seemed that no one was going to beat this horse, and he was primed to follow Arrogate as the top horse in the country. But he's developed a case of the minor placings since then and hasn't managed to finish better than 2nd in his last four races. Still should be part of your exotics however.
8. Pavel (20-1) - I thought he looked really good finishing 2nd in the Pacific Classic, despite being beaten by at least 10 lengths by a buzzsaw known as Accelerate. The pace is likely to be faster here which could cause him some problems. Still, he might be worth a look at what is sure to be a huge price and could factor in near the bottom of your exotics.
9. Mendelssohn (12-1) - I was high on Mendelssohn heading into this year's Kentucky Derby. I thought he hopped out of the gate well and had good tactical speed, enough to make a charge. Of course, he finished dead last. But he's done better since then stringing together 3 straight 2nd or 3rd place finishes. But I think he's overmatched against this company and I won't be playing him in anything. If he beats me, he beats me.
10. Yoshida (10-1) - In every race there is a "sharp" horse who gets over bet by the professionals based on recency bias. For Yoshida that comes from his late-charging win in the Grade I Woodward over Gunnevera and...to be honest, not much else. I don't think he's of the quality of the top horses in this race but I'll gladly allow other bettors to fill the pari-mutual pools with money on him while I look elsewhere.
11. Mind Your Biscuits (6-1) - I'll be honest, I've made a lot of money off of Mind Your Biscuits and if I have a sentimental soft spot in my heart for this very cool horse I hope you're understand why. In his career he's only finished outside of the top 4 twice. His odds won't be what they should be because the public loves him, but I'll still make a bet and include him in my exotics. When he was younger he was quite the sprinter so he has speed. As he's gotten older he's slowed some so his connections wisely have stretched him out. How about one more for the 5-year old?
12. Axelrod (30-1) - He's steadily improved in his career, moving up from Maiden Special Weight, to Allowance Racing, to winning Grade III's to finishing 2nd to McKinzie in the Pennsylvania. He'll need to improve a bunch to compete with this lot however. That said, look for this horse to have a gigantic 4 year old season provided he gets out of this race cleanly.
13. Discreet Lover (20-1) - He had a pop race in the Jockey Club Gold Cup beating the likes of Thunder Snow and Mendelssohn but prior to that he was a bottom of the exotics type who was outmatched when he stepped up in class. Is he a horse that's just figured it out and who could be a contender? Or was that just a really good race? I'm betting the latter.
14. Accelerate (5-2) - He's either the next "best horse in America" or another in a long-line of seemingly unbeatable favorites to go down in flames in the Breeder's Cup Classic. I do think this horse is really really good, and his last three races have been wins in dominating fashion. He's won from the outside, the middle and on the rail, and he has a spectacular turn of foot and amazing stretch speed. He also seems to like it as the races go longer so the 1 1/4 distance shouldn't be a problem. But he's never won from THIS far outside and against a field this big and this deep. I still think he's going to win, but I don't think he blows people away.
My Bets:
$10 Win - 11
$5 Win - 6
$5 Win - 8
$1 Spr - 14/11-6-5/11-6-5/6-5-13-1-8 ($22)
Total Wagered: $171.00
Good luck to you however you bet.
Breeder's Cup Filly and Mare Sprint.
With the departure of Dream Tree, this looks like a match race between Marley's Freedom, who drew an awful post, and Selcourt, who drew a great post. I have another horse for the win however, because I'm thinking the odds on the top two are going to be very short.
1. Selcourt (4-1) - Coming off a long layoff this filly's last three races were wins, including a strong showing in the Grade II Santa Monica, where she took the lead early and drew away from ML favorite Marley's Freedom.
5. Golden Mischief (10-1) - Comes back a month after winning the Grade II Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes over a field that included many horses not only in this race, but in other BC weekend races. Will need to improve some to win here, but good odds should be available.
13. Marley's Freedom (8/5) - Could have easily have packed it in while getting a rough trip in the Grade I Ballerina but dug in and dusted a pretty solid field in the Ballerina. This could be a horse that's hitting her prime at just the right time.
My Bets:
$5 Win - 5
$1 Tri Box - 1-5-13 ($6)
Breeder's Cup Turf Sprint
One of last year's more fun races, which included a wild finish, 11+11all of the major players are back from that romp, including a couple of new-shooters who I feel might have a chance.
5 - Disco Partner (7-2) - Third in last year's race this horse has been up and down since then with two wins, two thirds and one race off the board. Has trouble putting together back-to-back solid races, and is coming off a win.
9 - Stormy Liberal (4-1) - Globe-hopped after winning this race last year with limited success, but is coming off three straight wins which suggests that Stormy Liberal is rounding into form here.
11 - World of Trouble (6-1) - Has only finished off the board once in Stakes races, a 4th in the 7f Woody Stephens. Seems to like these shorter races however and I think there's a real chance an upset can be pulled here.
12 - Richard's Boy (12-1) - Hasn't won a race since way back in January 2017. Either hits the board or finishes 6th seemingly. I think 6th is the more likely spot here given the strength of the field.
14 - Conquest Tsunami (6-1) - I've always thought that this horse's best distances were at the sprinting level but the connections keep trying to stretch him out, often to bad results. Might put him at the bottom of my exotic here but not much else.
My Bets:
$5 Win - 11
$1 Spr - 5-9-11/5-9-11/5-9-11/14 ($6)
Dirt Mile
At Churchill this will be ran as a one-turn mile and their is a prohibitive favorite that you're going to have to try and beat. Fortunately, I think their are a few candidates to do so.
1. City of Light (5-2) - This son of Quality Road looked just OK barely holding on for second last time out at 7f. Seemed to tire significantly at the wire which could be a concern at a mile.
6. Seeking the Soul (5-1) - One of three runners in this race that are coming off a win. For seeking the Soul that was the Grade III Ack Ack Stakes. I like the positioning here and think this horse comes in with a strong chance.
7. Firenze Fire (6-1) - While on the Derby Trail I commented that I thought this horse's best distance might be a mile. Has won at this distance and is coming off a win at 7f. Another horse that I like a lot in this position.
10. Catalina Cruiser (8-5) - This is the justified prohibitive favorite considering this horse has done nothing but win, and win big, of late. IF Catalina Cruiser runs his race this is all but over. Still, this is a larger field than he's been used to and that outside post at least raises some questions.
My Bets:
$5 Win - 6
$5 Win - 7
Filly And Mare Turf
Many are calling this the Chad Brown Invitational but I think there's a chance (or two) to beat him. Not that I'm betting heavily on it, I'll still be keying on a Chad Brown horse, just not the one most will. This is the race where I'm going to try and hit a grand slam.
1. Fourstar Crook (5-1) A Chad Brown Turf horse, coming off a Grade I win. You'll notice a repeating pattern in this race. I do like this one's chances.
3. Wild Illusion (7-2) One of the non-Brown runners that's in with a big chance. This British runner is helmed by William Buick, who's been on fire over in Britain of late and is entering this weekend supremely confident.
6. Sistercharlie (3-1) Viewed by many as being the best Brown runner in this field, also coming off a Grade I win, against a solid field, she will not be easy to beat.
9. A Raving Beauty (5-1) The last of the Chad Brown runners coming off of a Grade one win, and probably the one that observers give the least chance of winning. Still, has to factor in your exotics.
12. Santa Monica (15-1) The "overlooked" Brown runner who has never won at the Grade I level but who has won at the distance and has done well at even longer. I'm taking a stab at a long shot here hoping that this Filly can pull a shocker.
My Bets:
$5 Win - 12
$2 Spr 6/3/1/9 & 12 ($4)
Sprint
For my money this is the most exciting race on the card. Yes, I know that all of the press goes to the classic but, excepting XY Jet, all of the top sprinters are here, and they will be battling for Sprinter of the Year.
1. Whitmore (6-1) - Seemingly never runs a bad race and should be right around the winners at the finish. Not entirely sure he has enough raw speed to keep up with the top horses, but could sweep everyone up if the race breaks down.
2. Promises Fulfilled (6-1) - A jet disguised as a horse. Should rocket out to the lead, the only question is: can he hang on?
5. Imperial Hint (9-5) - Against this field I think 9-5 is way too short. Unless the odds go North this won't be my win play but will be in my exotics.
8. Limousine Liberal (6-1) - Maybe a step slow against the big 4 in this race? But will be hanging around the bottom of my exotics in case one of them falters.
9. Roy H (5-2) - I THINK this is the horse to beat but the 9th post position is a bit of a worry.
My Bets:
$5 Win - 2
$1 Tri 5-9/1-2-5-9/1-2-5-9-8 ($18)
Mile
Possibly the most evenly matched race on the card, and the presence of a 5-1 ML favorite bears that out. There's also the fact that none of these horses are what one would call a bastion of consistency.
1. One Master (12-1) - Won the Grade I Prix de la Foret over many of the runners in this race, yet is getting no love here. Love the odds, will at least take a stab and include in my exotics
4. Polydream (Scr) - The Morning Line favorite by default has scratched. This opens up the field even further. Also out of this race: Hunt.
5. Oscar Performance (6-1) - Has a recent pattern of winning, finishing 9th, winning, finishing 9th. Is coming off a win. Not here.
10. Catapult (6-1) - Has finished either 1st or 2nd in his last 5 races. Seems to be in good form and if he can run as he has recently, should factor heavily in this race.
12. Analyze It (6-1) - Another contender here who's form seems to be getting progressively worse. Had three straight wins, followed by three straight 2nds, and then a 4th.
13. Gustav Klimt (10-1) - In a race with no clear favorite I'm going to settle on the Aidan O'Brien trained runner with a history of never running a dog race. I like Ryan Moore in the irons as well. And the odds.
My Bets:
$5 Win - 13
$5 Win - 1
$1 Exa Box - 1-10-12-13 ($12)
Distaff
The much anticipated duel between last year's winner Abel Tasman and 3 year old Filly of the year candidate Monomoy Girl might just get upset by a European invader.
2. Abel Tasman (7-2) - It's Bob Baffert and Mike Smith teaming up in a big race, exclude this horse at your peril.
5. Wonder Gadot (15-1) - Only finished a length behind Monomoy Girl last time out. Draw a line through the Travers where she hated the Spa and was over matched. I like this horse here a lot.
7. Midnight Bisou (6-1) - Has never beaten Monomoy Girl across the line despite being given the win the last time out in the Cotillion. Still, they've dueled and it's been close almost every time so you have to include her.
11. Monomoy Girl (2-1) - The rightful favorite here. She's pretty much won everything she's run in this year except the Cotillion where she was (questionably) disqualified to 2nd. Too short of odds for a win bet, but should be at the top of your exotics.
My Bets:
$5 Win - 5
$1 Tri Box 2-5-7-11 ($24)
Turf
The question in this race is whether or not Enable can overcome history and become the first Arc de Triomphe winner to win here. Once again however we're going to get too short odds for a win bet, so we'll look to pull a massive upset and use Enable in our exotics.
1. Talismanic (12-1) - Finished way back from Enable in the Arc De Triomphe but has ran well on turf pretty much everywhere else. Not sure he can win, but should be in the bottom of your exotics.
2. Enable (EVEN) - Is hoping to make this a coronation, might have to battle off some challengers to do so. Still, this is an excellent turf horse who hasn't lost at a mile and a half in a long, long time. Too small odds straight up, but a must on top of your exotics.
4. Robert Bruce (10-1) - Looking for somewhere to land other than Enable I settled on this colt whose finished 1st-6th-1st-2nd in his last four races. Hasn't won at this distance yet, but if he runs a big one this could be the upset of the day.
10. Hi Happy (20-1) - This Argentinian bred, Todd Pletcher trained horse hasn't won in a while, but he's tough and seems to always be hanging around. Probably not a win bet for me but he might help juice up the bottom of the exotics pools.
12. Waldgeist (9-2) - This runner is intriguing a lot of people and appears to be the "sharp" horse in the race. Typically this means that the odds get too depressed to really take seriously but it's the stable-mate of Talismanic and has some good recent form so if the price is right you might want to give him a peek.
My Bets:
$5 Win - 4
$1 Tri - 2/12-4-1/12-4-1-10 ($9)
And finally......
The Breeder's Cup Classic
While there is a little bit of "what if" surrounding this race (what IF Justify was running? etc.) it's still a packed field and it should still be a very active betting race. There is a clear favorite and a host of horses that could pull medium to giant upsets. Here's the full field.
1. Thunder Snow (12-1) - Is best known by the casual fan as the horse that threw a fit in the 2017 Kentucky Derby, He's shown flashes of brilliance since then, most notably winning the Dubai World Cup, but he's inconsistent and just as likely to finish out of the money as he is to win. IF he can put it together he's supremely talented and could even contend for the win.
2. Roaring Lion (20-1) - He could wind up being the public favorite as he's a cool horse with a good personality who has won his last four races overseas. Will that form translate into victory at Churchill? History is against him.
3. Catholic Boy (8-1) - Shocked5/ a lot of people winning the 2018 Travers and would need to replicate that stalking trip to have a chance to win here. I think he's going to find there's too much speed in this race and have difficulty hanging in.
4. Gunnevera (20-1) - A tough, gritty horse that always seems to hang around the bottom of the exotics in graded stakes races but can't break through. He'll need to improve to beat the best here but a lot of people will be rooting for him.
5. Lone Sailor (30-1) - Has a habit of hanging around in big races but has never really beaten any horse of the quality you'll find at the top of this field. He's a sentimental favorite due to his connections to the late Tom Benson, former umbrella-wielding, and in-the-luxury-box-dancing, owner of the New Orleans Saints. Would need to improve mightily to contend here.
6. McKinzie (6-1) - Looked every bit the Derby contender back in March before taking a six month sabbatical due to an injury, in his come-back race, the Grade I Pennsylvania Derby, he won. Should be among the leaders. Plus, this is the Baffert/Smith combination that's seemingly been winning everything these days.
7. West Coast (5-1) - There was a five race stretch in 2017 when it seemed that no one was going to beat this horse, and he was primed to follow Arrogate as the top horse in the country. But he's developed a case of the minor placings since then and hasn't managed to finish better than 2nd in his last four races. Still should be part of your exotics however.
8. Pavel (20-1) - I thought he looked really good finishing 2nd in the Pacific Classic, despite being beaten by at least 10 lengths by a buzzsaw known as Accelerate. The pace is likely to be faster here which could cause him some problems. Still, he might be worth a look at what is sure to be a huge price and could factor in near the bottom of your exotics.
9. Mendelssohn (12-1) - I was high on Mendelssohn heading into this year's Kentucky Derby. I thought he hopped out of the gate well and had good tactical speed, enough to make a charge. Of course, he finished dead last. But he's done better since then stringing together 3 straight 2nd or 3rd place finishes. But I think he's overmatched against this company and I won't be playing him in anything. If he beats me, he beats me.
10. Yoshida (10-1) - In every race there is a "sharp" horse who gets over bet by the professionals based on recency bias. For Yoshida that comes from his late-charging win in the Grade I Woodward over Gunnevera and...to be honest, not much else. I don't think he's of the quality of the top horses in this race but I'll gladly allow other bettors to fill the pari-mutual pools with money on him while I look elsewhere.
11. Mind Your Biscuits (6-1) - I'll be honest, I've made a lot of money off of Mind Your Biscuits and if I have a sentimental soft spot in my heart for this very cool horse I hope you're understand why. In his career he's only finished outside of the top 4 twice. His odds won't be what they should be because the public loves him, but I'll still make a bet and include him in my exotics. When he was younger he was quite the sprinter so he has speed. As he's gotten older he's slowed some so his connections wisely have stretched him out. How about one more for the 5-year old?
12. Axelrod (30-1) - He's steadily improved in his career, moving up from Maiden Special Weight, to Allowance Racing, to winning Grade III's to finishing 2nd to McKinzie in the Pennsylvania. He'll need to improve a bunch to compete with this lot however. That said, look for this horse to have a gigantic 4 year old season provided he gets out of this race cleanly.
13. Discreet Lover (20-1) - He had a pop race in the Jockey Club Gold Cup beating the likes of Thunder Snow and Mendelssohn but prior to that he was a bottom of the exotics type who was outmatched when he stepped up in class. Is he a horse that's just figured it out and who could be a contender? Or was that just a really good race? I'm betting the latter.
14. Accelerate (5-2) - He's either the next "best horse in America" or another in a long-line of seemingly unbeatable favorites to go down in flames in the Breeder's Cup Classic. I do think this horse is really really good, and his last three races have been wins in dominating fashion. He's won from the outside, the middle and on the rail, and he has a spectacular turn of foot and amazing stretch speed. He also seems to like it as the races go longer so the 1 1/4 distance shouldn't be a problem. But he's never won from THIS far outside and against a field this big and this deep. I still think he's going to win, but I don't think he blows people away.
My Bets:
$10 Win - 11
$5 Win - 6
$5 Win - 8
$1 Spr - 14/11-6-5/11-6-5/6-5-13-1-8 ($22)
Total Wagered: $171.00
Good luck to you however you bet.
Friday, November 2, 2018
Breeder's Cup Friday: Thoughts and Selections
It's what's been known, incorrectly, as the "Super Bowl" of the Sport of Kings but in reality is more akin to Texas High-School football championship weekend. The top eligible and willing, and uninjured, horses at most distances and surfaces going at it to be named the champion(ish) horse of the year.
While I kid, a little, about the Champion(ish) part (with so many horses this year either retired or sitting out the latter half of the season that's a hard case to make in some races) it still is an event that presents two-days of mainly full, or over-full, field races that are highly competitive in some cases, coronations in others, and in still even more out-of-nowhere upsets. In other words: It's the best betting weekend in horse racing.
It starts Friday, At Churchill Downs in Kentucky and will continue on through Saturday.
With that said, here are some thoughts on the Friday races and my top horses who are in with a chance in each.
Breeder's Cup: Juvenile Turf Sprint
The first "Breeder's Cup" event is one of the more wide open affairs where you could see an upset. The Favorite, Strike Silver (4/1) is a closer which is typically not an angle I like to take in overflow field sprint races, too many trip issues for a 2 year old. Still, you have to include him in your list of contenders....
1 - Strike Silver - (4-1) Again, I have issues with him being a closer but Trainer Wesley Ward has 4 entrants in this race and he appears to be the best of the bunch.
5 - Bulletin - (10-1) A speedster who's coming off a win in the Hollywood Beach Stakes is the horse I'm going to key on here hoping for an early upset at a price. The Trainer/Jockey Combo is Pletcher/Castelleano which bodes well.
8 - Sergei Prokofiev - (5-1) I think you ignore this horse at your own peril. Trainer Aiden O'Brien and Jock Ryan Moore always seem to team up and do good things. They've got a good horse here and Ryan Moore has now ridden Churchill enough that he shouldn't be a stranger to the course, something that's hindered him coming across the pond in the past.
My Bets:
$10 - Win 5
$2 Exa Box 1-5-8
Breeder's Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf
Maybe you can get away from the favorite in this race (6 - Newspaperofrecord) but I can't. Chad Brown is America's top turf trainer and he's got Irad Ortiz Jr, one of the top jockeys in the world right now in the irons. Still, it's not a mortal lock and there could be value in the win further down the card.
6 - Newspaperofrecord (2-1) If she loses here it would be her first time ever and as I said she has Brown and Irad in her corner. I think she's going to be overbet because of Brown and better value can be found further down the card.
3 - Lily's Candle (FR) (8-1) It's possibly been overlooked that this filly is the only grade one winner in this field. And European turf horses are typically superior to their American cousins. Jockey Pierre Charles Boudot and trainer Fabrice Vermeulen are not well known in the States but they are prominent in the French circuit. Will track knowledge be a concern? Possibly, but the odds here are going to be much more playable than those of the favorite.
4 - Just Wonderful (6-1) Another entry from Aiden O'Brien and Ryan Moore who finds herself in with a chance to win. Her last outing, a win in the Grade 2 Rockfel Stakes was impressive but it was on that long, straight course at Newmarket and not around a turn.
12 - Summering (15-1) This is a long shot play based solely on watching her past performances and being impressed, and he fact that she's being ridden by Drayden Van Dyke who is the hottest jockey on the planet right now. Can't ignore this one.
My Bets:
$5 - Win 3
$5 - Win 12
$2 - Tri Box 6-3-4-12
Breeder's Cup Juvenile Fillies
This could actually be the best race of the day as there are four grade one winners running against one another and an intriguing long shot that won her last race in legendary fashion.
2 - Serengeti Empress (7-2) We'll start with the horse that just won the 2018 Pocahontas in a manner that reminded some of Rachel Alexandra. While I think that's high praise to be laying on horse that's only really performed like that once, you can't ignore it. That said I think she's going to be a little over bet due to recency bias so, while I'm passing on the win, I do think that she has to play in your exotics.
4 - Restless Rider (9-2) Winner of the Grade 1 Alcibiades Stakes this Kenny McPeek horse ridden by Brian Hernandez could be the best of the group. She's the daughter of Distorted Humor which says that she's a fit here. That said, there are two other horses that I like better here for which I think I'll be getting better odds at post time.
7 - Jaywalk (7-1) Jaywalk is coming off a solid win in the Grade One Frizette and my guess is that this Jason Servis runner is going to get slightly overlooked in the wagering due to the two horses listed above. I'm hoping for around 10-1 at post time, which could be the bet of the day if she fires.
8 - Sippican Harbor (12-1) This daughter of Orb was the winner of the Grade One Spinaway, is ridden by Irad Ortiz Jr and is sitting at 12-1? OK, I'll take that everyday and on Friday. This is my key horse who will be in my win wagers and factor prominently in my exotics.
10 - Bellafina (2-1) For many, this will be their single.This daughter of Quality Road is coming off a win in the Grade One Ballerina and looks every bit the two year old champion. She's trained by Simon Callaghan and ridden by Flavian Prat so that's fine. My problem is 1) the outside post and 2) the competition that I think is going to be much tougher.
My Bets:
$5 - Win 8
$5 - Win 7
$1 Spr Box - 2-4-7-8-10
Breeder's Cup Juvenile Turf
It could be that the best horse in this race is Anthony Van Dyck. The Aiden O'Brien trained horse has been outstanding, and drew the far outside post. That could mean that another runner further inside is going to pull off a mile upset. Because of this Anthony Van Dyck is only going off at a rather luke-warm 4-1 favorite.
2 - Uncle Benny (15-1) The intrigue with this horse is that he had an all expenses paid entry into the Juvenile Turf Sprint but opted out of that entry and chose to stretch out here. Trainer Jason Servis is either crafty as a fox, or making a huge error. He's fast though, which might cause some problems IF he can handle the distance.
4 - Forty Under (5-1) I personally think Forty Under is a better place to land. This son of Uncle Mo is coming off a win in the Grade III Pilgrim and has shown improving form of late.
5 - Line of Duty (10-1) Outside of Anthony Van Dyck I think Line of Duty is the best European threat on the board. As a matter of fact, he's my pick to win it all. Rider William Buick is confident, extremely confident in his rides this meet and I think he could potentially have a winner here.
10 - War of Will (12-1) Admittedly, it would take some improvement from recent form for this horse to contend but IF, there's a speed duel he might have the wherewithal to sweep up the pieces. Worth a sprinkle in the win pools in my estimation.
14 - Anthony Van Dyck (4-1) Pretty much summed up my thoughts on this hose in the top paragraph. I think he's the best horse in the field. If he can overcome the horrible post draw then he'll prove it and he could be a dominating horse in this discipline.
My Bets:
$5 - Win 5
$5 - Win 10
$2 Exacta Box 5-4-14
Breeder's Cup Juvenile
The winner of this race automatically gets installed as the favorite for the 2019 Kentucky Derby. And while the chalk is sometimes not the correct play here I think we could be looking down the barrel of yet another Bob Baffert best of a horse. Game Winner will be my key horse in this race and probably a single in the last leg of the all-stakes pick 5.
9 - Game Winner (8-5) He won the 2018 American Pharoah by air, and it wasn't close. He's got all the looks of a Justify or Pharoah and the way Baffert has been running with horses like this.....
6 - Complexity (5-2) If anyone is going to beat Game Winner I think it might be this Chad Brown trained colt whose coming off a win in the Grade 1 Champagne.
5 - Well Defined (20-1) Why am I including a 20-1 longshot trained by a relative unknown? Because Mike Smith is in the irons and he has a history of pulling rabbits out of hats in big races such as this.
My Bets:
$5 - Win 5
$2 Tri 9-6-5
Good luck however you choose to wager.
While I kid, a little, about the Champion(ish) part (with so many horses this year either retired or sitting out the latter half of the season that's a hard case to make in some races) it still is an event that presents two-days of mainly full, or over-full, field races that are highly competitive in some cases, coronations in others, and in still even more out-of-nowhere upsets. In other words: It's the best betting weekend in horse racing.
It starts Friday, At Churchill Downs in Kentucky and will continue on through Saturday.
With that said, here are some thoughts on the Friday races and my top horses who are in with a chance in each.
Breeder's Cup: Juvenile Turf Sprint
The first "Breeder's Cup" event is one of the more wide open affairs where you could see an upset. The Favorite, Strike Silver (4/1) is a closer which is typically not an angle I like to take in overflow field sprint races, too many trip issues for a 2 year old. Still, you have to include him in your list of contenders....
1 - Strike Silver - (4-1) Again, I have issues with him being a closer but Trainer Wesley Ward has 4 entrants in this race and he appears to be the best of the bunch.
5 - Bulletin - (10-1) A speedster who's coming off a win in the Hollywood Beach Stakes is the horse I'm going to key on here hoping for an early upset at a price. The Trainer/Jockey Combo is Pletcher/Castelleano which bodes well.
8 - Sergei Prokofiev - (5-1) I think you ignore this horse at your own peril. Trainer Aiden O'Brien and Jock Ryan Moore always seem to team up and do good things. They've got a good horse here and Ryan Moore has now ridden Churchill enough that he shouldn't be a stranger to the course, something that's hindered him coming across the pond in the past.
My Bets:
$10 - Win 5
$2 Exa Box 1-5-8
Breeder's Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf
Maybe you can get away from the favorite in this race (6 - Newspaperofrecord) but I can't. Chad Brown is America's top turf trainer and he's got Irad Ortiz Jr, one of the top jockeys in the world right now in the irons. Still, it's not a mortal lock and there could be value in the win further down the card.
6 - Newspaperofrecord (2-1) If she loses here it would be her first time ever and as I said she has Brown and Irad in her corner. I think she's going to be overbet because of Brown and better value can be found further down the card.
3 - Lily's Candle (FR) (8-1) It's possibly been overlooked that this filly is the only grade one winner in this field. And European turf horses are typically superior to their American cousins. Jockey Pierre Charles Boudot and trainer Fabrice Vermeulen are not well known in the States but they are prominent in the French circuit. Will track knowledge be a concern? Possibly, but the odds here are going to be much more playable than those of the favorite.
4 - Just Wonderful (6-1) Another entry from Aiden O'Brien and Ryan Moore who finds herself in with a chance to win. Her last outing, a win in the Grade 2 Rockfel Stakes was impressive but it was on that long, straight course at Newmarket and not around a turn.
12 - Summering (15-1) This is a long shot play based solely on watching her past performances and being impressed, and he fact that she's being ridden by Drayden Van Dyke who is the hottest jockey on the planet right now. Can't ignore this one.
My Bets:
$5 - Win 3
$5 - Win 12
$2 - Tri Box 6-3-4-12
Breeder's Cup Juvenile Fillies
This could actually be the best race of the day as there are four grade one winners running against one another and an intriguing long shot that won her last race in legendary fashion.
2 - Serengeti Empress (7-2) We'll start with the horse that just won the 2018 Pocahontas in a manner that reminded some of Rachel Alexandra. While I think that's high praise to be laying on horse that's only really performed like that once, you can't ignore it. That said I think she's going to be a little over bet due to recency bias so, while I'm passing on the win, I do think that she has to play in your exotics.
4 - Restless Rider (9-2) Winner of the Grade 1 Alcibiades Stakes this Kenny McPeek horse ridden by Brian Hernandez could be the best of the group. She's the daughter of Distorted Humor which says that she's a fit here. That said, there are two other horses that I like better here for which I think I'll be getting better odds at post time.
7 - Jaywalk (7-1) Jaywalk is coming off a solid win in the Grade One Frizette and my guess is that this Jason Servis runner is going to get slightly overlooked in the wagering due to the two horses listed above. I'm hoping for around 10-1 at post time, which could be the bet of the day if she fires.
8 - Sippican Harbor (12-1) This daughter of Orb was the winner of the Grade One Spinaway, is ridden by Irad Ortiz Jr and is sitting at 12-1? OK, I'll take that everyday and on Friday. This is my key horse who will be in my win wagers and factor prominently in my exotics.
10 - Bellafina (2-1) For many, this will be their single.This daughter of Quality Road is coming off a win in the Grade One Ballerina and looks every bit the two year old champion. She's trained by Simon Callaghan and ridden by Flavian Prat so that's fine. My problem is 1) the outside post and 2) the competition that I think is going to be much tougher.
My Bets:
$5 - Win 8
$5 - Win 7
$1 Spr Box - 2-4-7-8-10
Breeder's Cup Juvenile Turf
It could be that the best horse in this race is Anthony Van Dyck. The Aiden O'Brien trained horse has been outstanding, and drew the far outside post. That could mean that another runner further inside is going to pull off a mile upset. Because of this Anthony Van Dyck is only going off at a rather luke-warm 4-1 favorite.
2 - Uncle Benny (15-1) The intrigue with this horse is that he had an all expenses paid entry into the Juvenile Turf Sprint but opted out of that entry and chose to stretch out here. Trainer Jason Servis is either crafty as a fox, or making a huge error. He's fast though, which might cause some problems IF he can handle the distance.
4 - Forty Under (5-1) I personally think Forty Under is a better place to land. This son of Uncle Mo is coming off a win in the Grade III Pilgrim and has shown improving form of late.
5 - Line of Duty (10-1) Outside of Anthony Van Dyck I think Line of Duty is the best European threat on the board. As a matter of fact, he's my pick to win it all. Rider William Buick is confident, extremely confident in his rides this meet and I think he could potentially have a winner here.
10 - War of Will (12-1) Admittedly, it would take some improvement from recent form for this horse to contend but IF, there's a speed duel he might have the wherewithal to sweep up the pieces. Worth a sprinkle in the win pools in my estimation.
14 - Anthony Van Dyck (4-1) Pretty much summed up my thoughts on this hose in the top paragraph. I think he's the best horse in the field. If he can overcome the horrible post draw then he'll prove it and he could be a dominating horse in this discipline.
My Bets:
$5 - Win 5
$5 - Win 10
$2 Exacta Box 5-4-14
Breeder's Cup Juvenile
The winner of this race automatically gets installed as the favorite for the 2019 Kentucky Derby. And while the chalk is sometimes not the correct play here I think we could be looking down the barrel of yet another Bob Baffert best of a horse. Game Winner will be my key horse in this race and probably a single in the last leg of the all-stakes pick 5.
9 - Game Winner (8-5) He won the 2018 American Pharoah by air, and it wasn't close. He's got all the looks of a Justify or Pharoah and the way Baffert has been running with horses like this.....
6 - Complexity (5-2) If anyone is going to beat Game Winner I think it might be this Chad Brown trained colt whose coming off a win in the Grade 1 Champagne.
5 - Well Defined (20-1) Why am I including a 20-1 longshot trained by a relative unknown? Because Mike Smith is in the irons and he has a history of pulling rabbits out of hats in big races such as this.
My Bets:
$5 - Win 5
$2 Tri 9-6-5
Good luck however you choose to wager.
Thursday, November 1, 2018
The Week 10 FIVE and the Week 9 Three and OUT
Coming back from an extended birthday weekend in Vegas I've got even less time to post this week than I did last. Add to that the 2018 Breeder's Cup (more on that later) and you get the short, short version of weekly football picks this week.
The Week 10 FIVE:
Last weeks' results: 3-2. Season Results (19-25-1) [.4222222]
1. Ohio (-2.5) @ Western Michigan [65.5] - Pick: Ohio To COVER -2.5
2. Oklahoma State (-8) @ Baylor [68] - Pick: Ok State to COVER -8
3. Houston (-13.5) @ SMU [72] - Pick: Houston to COVER -13.5
4. Air Force @ Army (-7) [43] - Pick: Army to COVER -7
5. Georgia Tech (-6.5) @ UNC [62.5] - Pick: UNDER 62.5
Games in which I have a rooting Interest:
Fresno State (-26) @ UNLV [60] - Any way you slice it UNLV's season is all but done. Fresno State is just going to put the final nail in the coffin.
Penn State @ Michigan (-10.5) [52.5] - Huge game for a Wolverine's team that needs to make a statement at home against a Penn State team that's not near as good as we thought at the beginning of the year.
NFL Three and OUT
Last week's results: 1-2 Season total: 11-13 (.458)
1. Tampa Bay @ Carolina (-6.5) [54.5] - Pick: Carolina to COVER -6.5
2. Kansas City (-8.5) @ Cleveland [51.5] - Pick: Kansas City to COVER -8.5
3. Houston @ Denver (-1) [46.5] - Pick: Houston to WIN on the ML
Game in which I have a rooting interest:
Oakland @ San Francisco (-3) [46] - An ugly game between two teams having rough years and which might have a say in who gets the first pick in the draft. San Francisco could be starting Nick Mullens at QB. Ugh.
The Week 10 FIVE:
Last weeks' results: 3-2. Season Results (19-25-1) [.4222222]
1. Ohio (-2.5) @ Western Michigan [65.5] - Pick: Ohio To COVER -2.5
2. Oklahoma State (-8) @ Baylor [68] - Pick: Ok State to COVER -8
3. Houston (-13.5) @ SMU [72] - Pick: Houston to COVER -13.5
4. Air Force @ Army (-7) [43] - Pick: Army to COVER -7
5. Georgia Tech (-6.5) @ UNC [62.5] - Pick: UNDER 62.5
Games in which I have a rooting Interest:
Fresno State (-26) @ UNLV [60] - Any way you slice it UNLV's season is all but done. Fresno State is just going to put the final nail in the coffin.
Penn State @ Michigan (-10.5) [52.5] - Huge game for a Wolverine's team that needs to make a statement at home against a Penn State team that's not near as good as we thought at the beginning of the year.
NFL Three and OUT
Last week's results: 1-2 Season total: 11-13 (.458)
1. Tampa Bay @ Carolina (-6.5) [54.5] - Pick: Carolina to COVER -6.5
2. Kansas City (-8.5) @ Cleveland [51.5] - Pick: Kansas City to COVER -8.5
3. Houston @ Denver (-1) [46.5] - Pick: Houston to WIN on the ML
Game in which I have a rooting interest:
Oakland @ San Francisco (-3) [46] - An ugly game between two teams having rough years and which might have a say in who gets the first pick in the draft. San Francisco could be starting Nick Mullens at QB. Ugh.
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