College Football: How I Quit Worrying and Learned to Love the Bowls (Part, the Last)

Previous stuff here:

Part, The First
Part, The Second
Part, The Third
Part, The Fourth
Part, The Fifth

Part, The Sixth

Part, The Seventh
Part, The Eighth

There was a time that New Year's Day served as an all-you-can-eat buffet of College Football goodness. There were over a dozen games played on the day, and back then modern-day sports bars and sports books were not yet invented, so you were forced to pick and choose the games you wanted to watch.  Pre-ESPN some of the games weren't even televised in your area.

But, while waiting for your ham, cabbage and black-eyed-peas to finish cooking, you had all of the college football you could handle, packed in on the last day for your viewing pleasure.

It was glorious and, like many other good things about College Football, it is now gone the way of the Dodo.  Still, we have 5 games on the docket today, let's take a final peek....


Outback Bowl

Mississippi State(-7) vs. Iowa [42.5] ML: MSU -300 UI: +240

Be it team Bloomin' Onion (Mississippi State) or Team Coconut Shrim (Iowa) the Outback Bowl is typically a mundane affair that's spiced up with some clever marketing and a surprise or three thrown in for good measure.

Mississippi State started off the year with gigantic expectations which failed to materialize, but kept them overranked throughout the year thanks to their position in the SEC West.  The Bulldog's biggest issue is on offense, where QB Nick Fitzgerald and company are extremely one-handed. They can run the ball with the best of them, but the forward pass seems to be a task too difficult for them to comprehend at times. On defense this team is very strong, only conceding 24 points to Alabama, in a game that wasn't close however. Still, that's the highest number of points they surrendered all year.

Iowa's best win of the season came early on against in-state rival Iowa State. Other than that they lost to every good team they faced. From that perspective, their 8-4 season feels hollow.  QB Nate Stanley has not shown up in big games against quality opponents, he'll have to do better if Iowa is to have a chance. To beat Mississippi State they're going to need a passing game to go along with the running of Mekhi Sargent, and they're going to need a lot of it.  Iowa's defense is solid, if not spectacular, but they are well coached and usually seem to be in the right place at the opportune time.

To me, this game comes down to team speed. Does Iowa have enough of it to do some clever things against the Bulldogs, and can the Bulldogs utilize theirs to make enough things happen to win the game.  I'm seeing this more as a mud-wrestling match, where neither team plays all that well and the game gets rightfully hidden on ESPN2.

Pick: Iowa to COVER -7 and UNDER

Prediction: MSU 13 Iowa 10



Playstation Fiesta Bowl

LSU (-7) vs. UCF [54.5] ML: LSU -300 UCF +250

The Tigers started off the season like a house on fire, beating Miami, Auburn and a host of small schools before inexplicably faltering against Florida. They picked it back up with big wins over Georgia and Mississippi State, before falling to Alabama in a 29-0 drubbing that exposed every flaw. They stumbled through the rest of the season before losing what was arguably the game of the year to Texas A&M.  The Tigers have a nasty defense, and a spotty offense. If you've seen every recent LSU team then you've seen this one.

UCF has not lost a football game in 25 tries. They are undefeated, and have found themselves to be directly in the crosshairs of the SEC media machine. They are a target, most of the country hates them, their emotional leader and starting QB (and possibly their best player) McKinzie Milton went down with a horrific injury late in the year, and they are exactly where they want to be.  Although the American has struggled this year it's hard to say that UCF has the same issues. It's too bad their game against NC State was blown away by a Hurricane, because they might be viewed more favorably had they played that game and won (as many think they would have).

So it's David vs. Goliath, again, in a bowl game where the P5 foe will say that they weren't motivated should UCF win, or say "we told you so" should they prevail. If you're a fan of college football, and not a partisan of either team or an "S-E-C!" chanting moron then you should be rooting for UCF here. Because their winning continues to expose the CFPI for the institutional fraud that it is.

Pick: UCF to COVER -7

Prediction:  LSU 24 UCF 31




Vrbo Citrus Bowl

Kentucky vs. Penn State (-6.5) [57.5] ML: KU +210 PSU -260

Kentucky was one of the better feel-good stories of the year, and the SEC East was theirs to lose this year.  But, as is usual, they flubbed it when it mattered losing first to Texas A&M, then to Georgia and finally, inexplicably, to Tennessee.  Benny Snell is the best running back in the country you haven't seen much of, and they play an aggressive form of football on both the offensive and defensive side this is fun to watch.

Penn State was the trendy pick to upset Ohio State in the B1G this year.  A loss to Ohio State, then Michigan State leading up to a drubbing by Michigan pretty much ended that talk. They have a fun QB in Trace McSorely but have been proven deficient in other skill positions now that Saquan Barkley is wearing NY Giant blue. Defensively they can be somewhat of a mess at times, but are solid for the most part.

The Citrus Bowl is a New Years Day game that is NOT a NY 6 bowl and sometimes the performances on the field prove that out. I'm wondering how both teams come into this game, and what mindset they have. I think Kentucky is the better team however as Penn State has not beaten any of the really good teams they have played.

Pick: Kentucky to WIN on the ML

Prediction: Kentucky 30 Penn State 27




Rose Bowl Game Presented by Northwestern Mutual

Washington vs Ohio State(-6.5) [57.5] ML: UW +215 OSU -265

Just another in a long line of shoddy match-ups in this year's NY6 bowls. At least this one has a historical angle of featuring the Pac-12 and B1G Champions facing off. You watch because it's college football played on the grandest stage of them all. Southern California as the sun sets makes for an outstanding backdrop.  That said, the Rose Bowl Parade might be more entertaining TV.

Washington was primed and ready to make it to the CFPI. But an early loss to Auburn and dumb losses to both Oregon and Cal (?!?!?) washed those dreams away.  Washington struggles on offense, but RB Myles Gaskin can be a handful when he wants to be. QB Jake Browning has been infuriatingly inconsistent this year, fumbling and throwing away the ball at big moments. They are competent on defense, but undersized and (to be totally honest) slow.

Ohio State will look back on the Purdue loss and say "what if?" Because they pretty much sleep-walked through the season before putting it all together in a 62-39 laugher against Michigan. Losing Joey Bosa for the year to injury, and a business decision, certainly stung on defense a little, but they have such a prolific offense that it didn't matter much in the end. Heisman finalist Dwayne Haskins seems to be putting it all together at the same time, and RBs JK Dobbins and Mike Weber should run all over the Huskies.  Add to this the fact that this is Urban Meyers last game as coach and it all feels like it's coming up Roses for the Buckeyes.

Both the PAC-12 and B1G got shut out of the CFPI this year, and Ohio State wants to show the committee that they made a grievous error.  Drink Heavy Huskies, this one's gonna hurt.

Pick: Ohio State to COVER -6.5 and OVER

Prediction: Ohio State 53 Washington 17




Allstate Sugar Bowl

Texas-Austin vs. Georgia (-13) [58] ML: UT-Austin +400 UGA -550

"Texas is (not) back!" but they're getting closer.  And we're getting closer and closer to the point that they're going to have enough talent that OU beating them won't hinge solely on Tom Herman's bad in-game coaching decisions.  Offensively the Longhorns can score with the best of them, having finally figured out the QB position in the person of Sam Ehlinger. Defensively they are still working on it, but they're better than they used to be at least.

Georgia had visions of the CFPI dancing in their heads, and even were still being touted as "One of the four BSECT teams in the country" by talking heads who are paid to pimp the SEC even after their SEC Championship loss to Alabama (ESPN's Kirk Herbstreit actually moved them UP in his rankings after the loss, that SEC check is in the mail Kirk). Jake Fromme is a decent QB, they run the heck out of the ball with a 2-headed monster, and they have deep talent at the WR position. On defense they are stout as well, with athleticism, speed and power all over their 2-deep roster.

I think in this game we're going to find out just how far UT-Austin truly is from being "back" as UGA, while disappointed, is going to take an Uga sized bite of angry out of Bevo's flanks.

Pick: Georgia to COVER -13 and OVER

Prediction: UT-Austin 13 Georgia 52


And, after the Sugar Bowl, that will be it.  I will not blog about the CFPI championship, nor will I watch more than maybe the Coaches Cast for the first half.

After this I'll post a bowl recap and then take about a week off from sports blogging, and will come back with some stuff on the Pegasus Invitational in horse racing and some college basketball stuff as conference play begins.

Enjoy the games and thanks for following along on what has truly been a slightly dull and disappointing college football 2018.

College Football: How I Quit Worrying and Learned to Love the Bowls (Part, The Eighth)

First, some history:

Part, The First
Part, The Second
Part, The Third
Part, The Fourth
Part, The Fifth

Part, The Sixth

Part, The Seventh

Bowl season is always a little bit fun, and a little bit sad.  Fun because you get bowls that are clearly drunk on egg-nog like the Cheez-It bowl, and then you have games like the New Era Pinstripe Bowl that are clearly hungover from the night before.

But it's sad because you realize that it's all coming to an end, that New Year's weekend is the last real time you're going to be able to just lay back in your recliner and watch College Football all day.

So yeah, looking at these last groups of games, it's done with just a tinge of sadness.

Military Bowl Presented by Northrop Grumman

Cincinnati vs Virginia Tech (-5.5) [53.5] ML: CU +190 VT -220

I'm not sure there's ever been a hollower 10-win team in college football than this year's Cincinnati Bearkats.  They started off 6-0, before finishing 4-2 and losing against the two best teams on their schedule. (Temple and UCF). That said, I think Cincy is just a little bit underrated going into this game. They have a prolific running game and talented WR's, the question is whether or not their QB can get them the ball. Desmond Ridder doesn't throw a lot of INTs but he's also not the most accurate QB of all time.

Virginia Tech's journey to their NCAA (Recognized) record 26th straight bowl appearance has been well documented.  They needed to win over rival Virginia, and then win a make-up game against Marshall just to qualify.  They started off strong, but along the way suffered a 4-game losing streak, an inexplicable loss to Old Dominion, before finishing off a disappointing season with back-to-back wins and bowl qualification.  This Hokies defense has been a departure for them, ranking near the bottom in all areas. I wouldn't count out Bud Foster though. The offense will need to find an identity, something which they lacked all year.

To say that this is a HUGE bowl game for the pride of the American Athletic Conference goes without saying. Houston's humiliation at the hands of Army and Temple's drubbing by Duke have given the American a black eye.  They could desperately use a win, I think the Bearkats might be the team to give it to them.

Pick: Cincinnati to WIN on the ML

Prediction: Cincinnati 27  Virginia Tech 10

Hyundai Sun Bowl

Stanford (-5) vs Pittsburgh [52] ML: Stan -210 Pitt +175

Ah the Sun Bowl. One of the few remaining, classic bowls that refuses to change it's ways. And we're better off for it.  The Sun Bowl is on CBS, it is the only bowl game on CBS. As such, it will get their "top" announcing team. It does things it's own way and it will be glorious because.....it is the Sun Bowl. If nothing else you should watch this bowl every year because it is NOT the CFPI and it's NOT owned and ran by ESPN.

Stanford won 8 games this year, which seems to be just about their level these days.  Head Coach David Shaw is considered one of the best in football, and a future NFL head coach should he ever decide to make the jump.  Stanford plays HARD on defense, is fairly simple, but effective on offense and has a kicker names Jet Toner. The big disappointment in this game is that RB Bryce Love, oft injured this year, has decided to wisely sit out this game to prepare for the NFL draft process. This leaves a void at the RB position for a team that desperately needs to run the ball to keep the offense on track.

Pitt is ending a weird 2018 campaign. They have been up and down all season, but they have 5 wins over bowl teams, although they lost North Carolina and to Miami. They did get the honor of getting pummeled by Clemson in the ACC Championship game. The biggest concern for Pitt in this game is that they are going to be missing two key cogs in their defensive backfield: Paris Ford and Bricen Garner are not making the trip.  Pitt's offense has been 'off' all season, and they will need to make improvements in their anemic passing game to stand a chance.

Both the PAC-12 and ACC have shown weakness this year as conferences. The Pac-12 failing to make the CFPI and the ACC seemingly having no one willing to step up and claim the title of "second best football team other than Clemson" all season long. Still, I think Stanford is the better team here. We can only hope that the teams go "home on home" jerseys and that Pitt decides to wear the old blue and yellow kits instead of the navy and gold monstrosities they wear currently.

Pick: Stanford to COVER -5 and UNDER

Prediction: Stanford 24 Pitt 10

RedBox Bowl

Michigan State vs Oregon(-2.5) [48] ML: MSU +115 UO -135

Sparty is a slog. They slow the game down, they're not very good on offense they like to make the game ugly. To end the season they lost to Nebraska and barely beat Rutgers. They also beat Penn State and Purdue when the latter was actually playing decent football. The biggest problem for Michigan State this year has been a lack of a quality running game. They thought LJ Scott was the answer but he's been pedestrian. It also didn't help their offense that QB Brian Lewerke hurt his shoulder and was on the bench for most of the 2nd half of the season. He'll need to have a big game for Sparty to have a chance.

Oregon has had a very good week, not only did they secure a Letter of Intent from the consensus number one recruit in the country, but QB Justin Herbert announced he's coming back to play for the team next year.  This is huge news for a team that arguably, should have won the Pac-12 this year but underachieved, playing inconsistently, especially on defense.  Their offense should be fine, but there is a question as to how their defense will hold up against what is expected to be a punishing running blitz from Michigan State. Oregon is a microcosm of the Pac-12 this year, brilliant in certain areas, not so great in others.

I'm having trouble settling on a story for this game, since both teams want to do totally different things. However, what I ultimately decided was that Michigan State IS going to be able to wear down Oregon, make the game a slog, and ultimately walk out of here with an ugly-assed win.

Pick: Michigan State to WIN on the ML

Prediction: Michigan State 19 Oregon 17

Autozone Liberty Bowl

Missouri (-9) vs. Oklahoma State [74.5] ML: Mizzou -370 OSU +285

Missouri's story begins and ends with QB Drew Lock.  They started off the season strong, winning 3 in a row before losing 3 and then going w/l/w/l/w to end the season and qualify for a bowl.  Missouri is the SEC team you forget about, then they pull an upset against an SEC team you remember and you go, oh yeah, they are in the conference. This year that upset was over Florida, and it reminded everyone that, outside of the top few teams, the SEC is a fairly pedestrian conference whose middle class gets consistently overrated.

Oklahoma State had bigger expectations Nationally than they did for those who follow the program. They were basically breaking in a new, and young, offensive line, and replacing a lot of key players on both offense and defense. They did OK on offense but their pass defense is horrid, at best. One maddening thing about OSU is that they are, quite possibly, the least consistent team in all the land. They lost 4 out of their last 6 games, but their two wins were over Texas and West Virginia, plus, they barely lost to OU 48-47.  Who can tell.

The only thing that I'm pretty sure of in this game is that points will be scored. Given the two defenses, and the qualify of both offenses, this could be the highest scoring bowl game of the year.

Pick:  OVER 74.5

Prediction:  Mizzou 52  OSU 48

San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl

Northwestern vs. Utah(-7) [57] ML: NW +240 UU: -300

Northwestern backed into the B1G championship game, and then played Ohio State tough for about a half before ultimately falling 45-24. The challenge here is that they have an offense that struggles to move the ball and score points, playing against a defense against which it's hard to move the ball and score points.  Northwestern will be missing two standout players, Sr LB Nate Hall and Sr DT Jordan Thompson but their replacements have game experience so they should be OK.  

Utah's questions on offense are many and varied as those faced by Northwestern. IF QB Tyrone Huntley can come back from a broken collarbone, suffered in November, that would be a huge shot in the arm for the Utes offense. On defense the Utes are still waiting to see if all-world pass-rusher Chase Hanson can play, but they still have a ton of talent on the defensive side of the ball to counter NW's rather anemic offense.

If anything on offense clicks in this game, it's likely to be the Ute's passing attack. Northwestern's pass defense is the weak link in an otherwise solid unit.  I think they'll make just enough big plays in the passing game to win the game, but points are going to be at a premium here.

Pick: UNDER 57

Prediction: Utah 17 NW 3

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl

NC State vs. Texas A&M (-7) [57] ML: NCS +240 aTm -300

The Wolfpack were a fave-rave pick of the college football cognescenti to take the mantle of "second best team in the ACC behind Clemson" before they lost inexplicably to Syracuse and Wake Forest in the 2nd half of the season. Ryan Finley is a good quarterback who has weapons to target on offense, but will be missing a key target in WR Kevin Harmon, who is sitting out to prepare for the NFL draft process. On defense they're going to be without NFL draft prospect and Sr LB Germaine Pratt, who was a prolific defensive playmaker for them all season.

Texas A&M will hope that QB Kellen Mond can continue to perform as he has all season against a defense where opportunity could present itself.  Also promising for the Aggies is RB Williams, who could find some holes in which to run given Pratt's absence. The problem for the Aggies is motivation. They paid Jimbo Fisher a LOT of money to finish this season with the exact same record that Kevin Sumlin achieved last season, and only one signature win (the bonkers 74-72 7OT win over LSU) to show for it.

To me, these are two mid-level teams in their respective conferences that aspire to bigger things, but for whom actual results are few and far between. These teams are mirror images of one another, and I expect a close, tough game that is full of big hits and even some big plays on offense.  In the end, I think a TD spread is too big for this game.

Pick: NC State to COVER -7

Prediction: NC State 24 aTm 27

One more slate of games to go, and then it's time to bid goodbye to College Football, and turn our focus toward College Basketball, NHL and horse racing.

Enjoy the games.

College Football: How I Quit Worrying and Learned to Love the Bowls (Part, The Seventh)

Prior stuff here:

Part, The First
Part, The Second
Part, The Third
Part, The Fourth
Part, The Fifth
Part, the Sixth

To be honest, I'm not sure why I'm treating these games separately in this blog because I'm viewing them as single games, and not as playoff semi-finals.  It's not that a playoff final won't be played, it's that I just don't care as the entire process has devolved into a political mess which excludes over half the college football landscape from participation.

What it's given us are two uninspiring bowl games, with two teams of two that are highly mismatched on paper.  The only salient question that the media seem to be asking is this: Would it be better with Georgia involved? (answer: NO)

So, the entire premise is a mess, a fatally flawed mess with little hope for salvaging it from itself and the only answers people have for the mess is making a bigger mess of it.  Blah.  Let's just look at the two games.


Good Year Cotton Bowl (Not played at the actual Cotton Bowl)

Notre Dame vs Clemson (-13) [56.5] ML: ND 360 Clem -470

Before you go pounding your chest about how the Irish are back, I want to remind you of this:  Their best win is against a Michigan team that got totally worked over by Ohio State.  QB Ian Brook didn't even play against Michigan, but he's likely to play here which won't mean all that much against the most talented team Notre Dame has played this year.

Clemson has the best defensive front 7 in the game, and that's probably true even with the drug-test-related suspension of Dexter Lawrence.  Christian Wilkins is still there, as are Austin Bryant and Cleland Ferrell, plus, the Tigers have depth at the position and the LB's are still going to wreck shop. And we haven't even mentioned the offense yet. QB Trevor Lawrence has been spectacular, is healthy, and should carve up the slow, plodding ND defense.

I expect this one to get ugly early and be all but over by halftime.  I'm not even having much of an issue giving up 12.5 points in a game I think Clemson could win by 30 if the Irish aren't careful.

Pick: Clemson to COVER -13

Prediction: ND 7 Clemson 38



Capitol One Orange Bowl

Oklahoma vs. Alabama (-14) [77.5] ML: OU 450 Bama -650

Heisman winner Kyler Murray is the real deal, an outstanding player whose future will play out on the baseball diamond but whose college career has been nothing short of spectacular.  But OU's defense is just as bad as Murray is good.  While I do think that OU's offense can accomplish some things against the vaunted Bama D, I also think that they will not be able to stop the Tide from crashing over them.

Bama is Bama.  Tua, by all accounts, is going to be mostly healthy, and while they also have some suspensions that could concern, including starting O-lineman Lester Brown, it's hard to see him and a couple of backups missing the game stalling what has been an offensive juggernaut for most of the season.

OU is going to score against Bama, of that I have no doubt. I'd feel better about my pick if I knew for certain exactly who would be in the game (Hollywood Brown for example).  But with Murray and Cee Dee Lamb going they should still be potent enough. Despite the gaudy lines, I think this is a tough game to handicap because there are so many unknowns.

Pick: OU to COVER +14 and UNDER 77.5

Prediction: Oklahoma 28 Alabama 35





Next up we'll look at the New Year's Eve games. No major bowls, but a lot of big-name teams coming off disappointing seasons who have a lot still to prove.

Enjoy the games.

College Football: How I Quit Worrying and Learned to Love the Bowls. (Part, The Sixth)

Your look back:

Part, The First
Part, The Second
Part, The Third
Part, The Fourth
Part, The Fifth

As I write this I'm not sure of my results on Wednesday's games, sometimes work and real-life preclude you from knowing.  Because of that I'm still saying I'm 9-9 at the current time as we start to roll into the "bigger" bowl games.



Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl

Purdue vs. Auburn (-3.5) [55.5] ML: Pur +145 Aub -170

Bowl season is a horrible determinant of conference power, yet people look at the results as definitive nonetheless. Because of that this match between two middling conference teams, both coming off somewhat disappointing regular seasons, is HUGE for the B1G as it will further bolster their case that Ohio State was wrongly excluded from the increasingly discredited College Football Playoff Invitational.

Purdue started the season horribly, losing their first three before winning five in the middle and finishing the season off with a bowl-qualifying victory over rival Indiana.  In the middle of that mess they put a whupping on Ohio State, at the Horseshoe, beating the Buckeyes 49-21, a loss that's rightly pointed to when the argument against OSU is made for the CFPI.  Then head coach Jeff Brohm decided to stay, instead of going to try and fix the mess that is Louisville, and things seemingly got a little better.  Watch WR Rondale Moore, if Purdue is going to have a chance then he is gong to need to shine.

Auburn is starting to wonder whether head coach Gus Malzahn is the right guy to lead a program who wants to compete with Alabama on a regular basis, but always seems to be a step below. Offensively the Tigers have been a complete disaster, and it's hard to determine exactly why. Most embarrassing was a loss to Tennessee, a total head-scratcher from a team full of them this year.

This is a classic good offense vs. good defense match-up, the difference here being that I think Purdue has good talent and play on the defensive side as well. Certainly enough to contain Stidham and the War Eagle offense.

Pick: Purdue to win on the ML

Prediction: Purdue 27 Auburn 20

(Note: The lines here are eerily similar, not a lot of advantage to be found either way.  Caesars has a better over line (54.5) and stay away from Westgate if you're an Auburn ML player.  Otherwise, hit up your favorite book)




Camping World Bowl

West Virginia vs. Syracuce (-1) [67.5] ML: WV -105 SU -115

This line opened at -7, for West Virginia, then Mountaineer QB Will Grier announced he was sitting out to prepare for the NFL draft and the slide began to a point where Syracuse is now the favorite.  Full Disclosure: I fired on this game when the lines were released but I'll handicap it here as if I didn't.

Grier's decision is a net positive for West Virginia long term. Instead of having the redshirt Senior play his last game, WV gets to look at two quarterbacks who should compete for the position in Spring Training next year. Both RS Soph Jack Allison and true Freshman Trey Lowe have talent. The question is which one of them can win the job.  They'll have talented receivers to target, and a running game that's competent. One big problem, one of the 'Neers best offensive linemen, LT Yodney Cajuste will be missing as well WR Gary Jennings Jr.

Syracuse, on the other hand, is saying goodbye to QB Eric Dungey, a standout player for them who is the heart and soul of their team. They will be missing two key defensive linemen, DE Alton Robinson and DT McKinley Williams, so that's a concern. But Dungey is looking to have a big game to close out his Syracuse career and that should not be overlooked. 

Despite all of the key players missing, I'm expecting points galore in this game.  Under Dana Holgerson WV offense should be OK, even with the missing players, and I think Syracuse is going to have difficulty getting the Allison and Lowe without a full complement of defensive linemen. That said, I don't see anything to prove against Syracuse on offense being able to do whatever they want against the WVU defense.

Pick: Syracuse to COVER -1 and the OVER.

Prediction: West Virginia 35 Syracuse 45

(Note:If you like WVU you should go ML, which means Will Hill at +105 currently. Also, grab the over at Caesars, where 67 is better than 67.5 for more than a few reasons.)




Valero Alamo Bowl

Iowa State vs. Washington State (-3) [56.5] ML: ISU +135 Wazzu -155

The Alamo Bowl is one that people look at as always being a dog of a bowl game, but usually turns out pretty interesting. The bowl is usually drunk, played with errors, silly stuff but rarely a ton of points.  When it DOES turn out however it's a classic.  Since this game regularly features the teams from the PAC-12 and Big XII who just missed a NY 6 game, it usually has two fairly competitive teams playing in it.

Iowa State wanted to be better than they actually were this season. After starting 1-3 they benched their starting QB and turned to Freshman Brock Purdy, who led them to five straight wins (including a win over West Virginia) and they were starting to dream about playing in the Big XII title game when Texas sent all of that tumbling down.  They still rallied to win eight games (including a hurricane make-up game with FCS Drake) and are a well-balanced team with some athletic talent on both sides of the ball.

Washington State started off Pac-12 play with a loss to USC, then they ran the table before ultimately losing to Washington in a snow-filled Apple Cup which knocked them out of Pac-12 Championship participation.  They have a gun-slinger in QB Gardner Minshew, who is running Mike Leach's offense to perfection when all is right.  Still, losing to Washington and ending up here, getting shafted for a NY 6 bowl in the process, means that motivation is a huge concern for the Cougars.

Washington State should pass the ball, a lot, and Iowa State should run the ball provided RB David Montgomery is healthy.  Iowa State has a good defense, but they are susceptible to the pass. Washington State's defense struggles against the run.  Hold on folks.

Pick: Washington State to COVER -3 and OVER

Prediction: Iowa State 38 Washington State 48

(Note: Grab the over at Will Hill or Wynn for a half point, you don't have to buy the hook.)


Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl

Florida vs. Michigan (-6) [51] ML: FL +200 M -250

If you've followed this blog all season, then you know I don't bet on Michigan. I'm a fan.

This is a game that no one really wants to see. And, to be honest, even though I'm a Michigan fan and will watch, I really don't care much about the result. Michigan's defense should run roughshod over Florida's offense and the Michigan O should do enough to win.  A better matchup here would have been Florida/UCF and Michigan/LSU in the Sugar.

Prediction: Florida 10 Michigan 38




Belk Bowl

South Carolina (-5.5) vs. Virginia [53.5] ML SC -240  UVA +190

The most overhyped bowl every.single.year. I'm not a fan of the Belk Bowl, but I'll watch the damn thing because it's on Saturday.

South Carolina finished 7-5, and failed to beat a ranked team long the way. They are among the most overrated teams in college football because, and only because, they play in the SEC. They have some talent on offense, QB Jake Bentley is serviceable and WR Bryan Edwards is a force, but they sport dodgy O-line play which is a killer against good teams.

Virginia was projected to finish last in the ACC this year, not just in their division, but they were pegged to be the worst team in the ACC, yet they played hard and found a gift for running the ball and coupling that with a pass game that featured QB Bryce Perkins throwing to all-name candidate WR Olamide Zaccheus.  Coach Bronco Mendenhall is building something here, and back-to-back bowl seasons should mean that no one will underrate this team going forward.

Go back to the first thing I said about SC. They cannot beat good teams.  And I think Virginia is a pretty good team, their finish to the season notwithstanding. I think Mendenhall is going to look at SC and realize that the Hoos can run the ball down their throats with regularity. I don't think that this will be a high-scoring game, but I don't think Cocky has the ability to stop what UVA is going to want to do on offense.

Pick: Virginia to WIN on the ML

Prediction: South Carolina 13 Virginia 24

(Note: Westgate or Wynn for this bet, where you can grab +190)




Nova Home Loans Arizona Bowl

Arkansas State (-1.5) vs. Nevada-Reno [57.5] ML: AState -120 UN-R +100

When I look at this bowl initially what I see is fun. Pure, unadulterated, late Saturday night, Mountain West  After Dark fun.  Fitting for the last true late night game of the season we're going to see.

Arkansas State has done it with defense, finishing with 4-straight wins after a rocky season start. Watch for DE Ronheen Bingham who is a disruptive force and on offense NFL pro-prospect Justice Hansen can throw the ball to a variety of targets.  This is one of the best Sun Belt programs in the current environment and they can light it up with the best of them.

Nevada-Reno should be pissed.  After having a decent season they were all but convinced they were going to go 8-5 after winning against UNLV and taking the Fremont Cannon back home.  Whoops. UNLV won 34-29 in a late-night Mountain West After Dark Spectacular and now the Cannon is painted red, and the Wolfpack are an angry lot. QB Ty Gangi played horribly in that game, but he's been solid all season, they run the Air Raid offense with Hal Mumme at the controls so it doesn't get much better than that.

All that said, I'm not a fan of the Air Raid. I think it's ran it's course and teams, for the most part, have scouted it out. Bingham is going to be the best player on the field when UN-R has the ball and I'm not sure the Wolfpack's WR's are going to be able to get much separation from the Red Wolves defenders. I do however think that points are going to be plenty.  Which is fitting for what is essentially a post-season extension of Mountain West After Dark craziness.

Pick:  OVER 57.5

Prediction: ASU 42 Nevada 38

(Note: Very even lines in this game, but if you like UN-R to pull the upset head to either Caesars or Will Hill for 5 points better payouts.)


Next up are the two CFPI games, and then we get into the final two bowl days, New Year's Eve and New Year's Day.  And then that's it.  Football season over. 

On this blog we have decided to not recognize, watch or give any publicity to the CFPI championship.  We will not be watching either.  College football doesn't need a National Champion nor does it need 10 people being exclusionary to obtain it.

Enjoy the games.

College Football: How I Quit Worrying and Learned to Love the Bowls (Part, the Fifth)

As is custom, here's your recap of prior posts in the series....

Part, The First
Part, The Second
Part, The Third
Part, The Fourth

After a rough start in the first tranche of games, (2-5) I rebounded in 2-4, went 7-4 and am now sitting at even (9-9) for the bowl season.  It's a game of streaks occasionally, I'll take a hot streak, let's keep it going.....



Servpro First Responder's Bowl

Boston College vs Boise State(-2.5) [50] ML: BC +130  BSU -150

There was some talk around both these programs making a NY 6 bowl at various points of the season, but neither could pull out the big win when they needed it most.

Boston college started the season well, but losses to Purdue and NC State left them limping, and then three losses to close out the season to Clemson, Florida State and Syracuse pretty much exposed them to be the team I had predicted pre-season.  BC gets chronically overrated by the media because they all like the cut of head coach Steve Narduzzi's jib. However, BC is hoping to get back bell-cow running back AJ Dillon and, should he return, they might be more potent on offense then they have been since he went out with injury.  They are stout on defense, but slow.

Boise State was doing their usual job of getting overrated by everyone not paying close attention prior to losing to Oklahoma State, and then San Diego State in short order. Amazingly, they were still in the conversation for Group of 5 NY 6 consideration until losing to Fresno State in the MAC Championship game.  Quarterback Brett Rypien runs the offense, and they do have talent at the skill positions. I worry about their line play against P5 teams these days, which is a departure from Bronco teams of the past.

The biggest story in this game might be the weather.  If you were lucky and grabbed the number at around 56 then good for you, because forecasts of 20+ MPH winds and rain have it falling fast to around 50-51. Still, there might be a little bit of value there at Caesars which is still offering 51.5.

Pick:  Boise State to cover -2.5 and UNDER 51.5

Prediction:  Boston College 17 Boise State 24

(As stated earlier, grab this line at Caesars if you can. Westgate is 50, WH and Wynn at 51 at the time of publication. If you like Boston College to pull the upset take a cab to Westgate (+135))



Quick Lane Bowl

Minnesota vs. Georgia Tech (-6) [56] ML: MINN +190  GT -240

Minnesota head coach PJ Fleck has got much more of a leaky boat at Minnesota than he did at Western Michigan. Recruiting his guys, and getting them to buy in, has been a challenge. When Minnesota has lost this year, they've lost in grand form. Four straight to kick off conference play and then a 55-21 humbling by Illinois. Look for them to rely in RB Mohamed Ibrahim on offense and watch them HOPE that they defend better against the run than they did all season long.

This will be Yellowjacket head coach Paul Johnson's farewell performance, and his players are hoping to make it a winning one. They run the triple-option possibly better than anyone in the country outside of Army and their plan is to control the ball, not let Minnesota's offense on the field, and just grind the Gopher's down.

I think Paul Johnson wants to prove something in this game and I think his players want to see him do it.  This one could be all but over by halftime given the porous nature of the Gopher defense this year against the run.


Pick: Georgia Tech to COVER -6

Prediction: Minnesota 7 Georgia Tech 31



Cheez-It Bowl

California (-1) vs TCU [38.5] ML: Cal -115 TCU -105

In every bowl season there is a dog, a game so unappealing that I'm not even sure when I see the schedule if I'm going to watch.  This is that game this year.

Cal is a middling team that's only 8-4 because it scheduled two FCS opponents this season. They have a terrible offense and an improving defense that allowed the Bears to pull an upset or three this season. This is the blueprint that coach Justin Wilcox seems to want to follow. Good defensive play coupled with an offense that can kick just enough field goals to win close games.

TCU has had a nightmare season with injuries and player misconduct. They're going to rely on 3rd string QB Grayson Muehlstein to get the ball to Jalen Reagor, who has been the one constant on offense this season. Muehlstein played well to end the season helping the frogs to wins over Baylor and OSU to end the season and get the Frogs bowl eligible.

In the coaching matchup I have to point the needle solidly toward Gary Patterson of TCU. Muehlstein has been improving, and a month of extra practice can only help.  I'm not touching the number, but I do like TCU to pull a room-temperature upset.  And yes, I will be watching despite my better self.

Pick: TCU to win on the ML

Prediction: California 13  TCU 20

(Note: Not a whole lot in this game but if you like the over go to either Westgate or Will Hill who are both a half point lover at 38.5)



Walk-on's Independence Bowl

Temple (-3) vs Duke [54.5] ML: TEM -160  Duke +140

Temple started off the season with a disaster, loving to FCS Villanova. They then righted the ship, won some games, and even pulled off an upset or three against AAC members, Cincinnati, Houston and USF.  Of course, those wins, especially the UH one, look a lot worse after what we've seen in the bowls.  Unfortunately they lost their coach to Georgia Tech, replacing a retiring Paul Johnson, so for the 2nd time in a bowl game interim head coach Geoff Collins will lead the team. Look for them to rely heavily on RB Ryquell Armstrong to carry the load.

Duke meanwhile stumbled to finish the season in a forgettable run that included shellackings by both Clemson and Wake Forest. The Wake game was especially appalling for them because the Demon Deacons are the closest thing they have to a football rivalry.  Head Coach David Cutcliffe does well in bowl games however, as they're going for their 3rd straight win.

My handicapping of this game takes into account the seriously sorry state of the American Conference this season, especially the West, where Temple made most of their hey.  I'm liking Duke on the Money-line here.

Pick: Duke to win SU on the ML.

Prediction: Temple 24 Duke 27

(Note: Try to grab the ML at Wynn, where you can grab +150 still)



New Era Pinstripe Bowl

Miami (-3) vs. Wisconsin [47.5] ML: Mia -150 Wisc +130

Call this the "disappointment bowl" because both teams had grand designs of playing for bigger and better things in 2018 after playing each other in the 2017 Rose Bowl.  So this is a bowl rematch, in a lesser bowl, played in Yankee Stadium.  Yikes.

Miami saw big things ahead for 2018, but those dreams were snuffed out under a cloud of shoddy offensive play, especially at the quarterback position. Malik Rozier was benched for N'Kosi Perry, but now it appears that Perry is going to be suspended for the game. Couple that with a horrific, career-ending neck injury to WR Ahmmon Richards, and it's just been bad for the Hurricane.  They do have a prolific running back duo who have been effective moving the ball, but costly penalties and dumb game-management decisions have proven this to be very much a Mark Richt coached team.

Wisconsin's problem has been horrible play by signal-caller Alex Hornibrook. How bad has he been?  So bad that head coach Paul Chryst is expected to burn the red-shirt of Jack Coan to keep Hornibrook out of the game.  Wisconsin will trot out the best player on the field in the person of Jonathan Taylor, who they are hoping can help them control the ball and force Miami's offense to have to make the most of limited possessions.

Motivation is a concern (which the lines have factored in), suspensions and bad play abound, neither team is going to want to be here.  Hold your nose and pick.

Picks: Wisconsin to win on the ML and UNDER 47.5

Prediction: Miami 3 Wisconsin 13

(Note: Grab Wisky at either Westgate or the Wynn, where +130 is the best you'll find.)


Academy Sports + Outdoors Texas Bowl

 Baylor vs. Vanderbilt (-4) [56] ML: Bay +160 Vandy -190

In one of the funnier bits of advertising of the current bowl season, local radio ads for this game are suggesting "the rivalry is renewed". This is a "rivalry" between two teams that have played each other exactly two times, in the 1950s.

Baylor is still continuing their long rebuild from the Art Briles error under the guidance of Matt Rhule. This year their record is hollow when you consider that they only beat one bowl eligible team all season, Oklahoma State. To top it off, it's unclear whether or not they'll have any of their two offensive stars. WR Jalen Hurd is definitely out, having undergone a knee procedure, and RB JaMycal Hasty MIGHT be out as well.

Vanderbilt has questions of their own regarding the health of stars. RB Ke'Shawn Vaughn has been nursing an arm injury and it's unclear whether or not he'll see the field. If he can go, that will be a huge help against a Baylor defense that struggles against the run. I also think that WR Kalija Lipscomb has the potential to be a matchup nightmare for the Bears' secondary.

Typically, when two 6-6 teams hook up, there's not a lot of anticipation for the bowl game in question. This might be a little different for the Texas Bowl however because the games preceding it are predicted to be snoozers.  I'm not entirely sure there's going to be much of a reason to tun into any of the Thursday bowl games, but if there is, this game might be the one to watch. (Low bar to clear but still)

Pick:  Baylor to cover +4

Prediction: Baylor 24 Vanderbilt 17


Enjoy the games, good luck.

Next up we start to take a look at many of the bigger teams, and bigger bowl games.

College Football: How I Quit Worrying and Learned to Love the Bowls (Part, the Fourth)

You can see my so-far pathetic record here:

Part, The First
Part, The Second
Part, the Third

The more things change this college football season the more they stay the same.  You watch the games, you track the stats and figures, and then everything that you think you know about the teams comes crashing down in a heap of "what the hell?"

Take the Cheribundi Tart Cherry Boca Raton bowl for example.  Two teams, both run-based, both with outstanding defenses, suddenly become passing machines and the total goes OVER just after halftime.

Thank goodness the NFL, college basketball and fading the Houston Rockets early are bailing me out.

Let's look at Saturday's Slate of games.


Jared Birmingham Bowl

Memphis (-3.5) vs. Wake Forest [73.5] ML: MEM -165 WF +142

The biggest news coming out for Memphis is that star RB Darrell Henderson will not be competing in the Birmingham Bowl as he has chosen to come out early to prepare for the NFL draft, where he'll surely be a high running back selection. In his place Memphis will rely on a two-headed monster approach featuring Patrick Taylor Jr. and Tony Pollard, a duo that had some success against Missouri when Henderson went out with an injury. Make no mistake though, this IS a big blow to Memphis who needs to control the ball to keep their pretty bad defense off the field.

Wake Forest barely qualified for bowl inclusion, winning their last game against a Duke team that had nothing left to play for.  And they shellacked them, playing their best game of the year and winning 59-7. Prior to that game the season was a near-disaster. They needed late upset wins against NC State and the aforementioned Duke team to even get into this bowl game. It's perhaps no coincidence that the Wake turnaround started when Freshman Jaime Newman took over at QB, replacing the injured Sam Hartman in early November against Syracuse. Since his elevation, the Demon Deacons have been a better team.

The prime matchup in this game is going to be Memphis' running game versus a Wake Forest defense that has struggled against the run.  Even without Henderson Memphis should try to run the ball, the question will be whether or not Wake can stop them.  Memphis defense is, to put it mildly, not very good, so I'm expecting the Newman led Deacons to score some points at least.  Given the history of both team's defenses I can't see any other way to read this.  Which, of course, means that we're going to get a messy mud-fight of a game where both offenses consistently step on themselves.


Pick: UNDER 73.5

Prediction: Memphis 24  Wake Forest 21


Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl

Houston vs. Army (-4.5) [59.5] ML: UH 170  Army -200

Houston would look a lot better coming into this game if quarterback D'Eriq King hadn't gotten injured against Memphis and if Navy hadn't tried to end Ed Oliver's career with a dirty block, ruined his relationship with college football and caused him to shut it down in fear for his pro career.  As it stands the UH defense cannot stop a stiff Jr. High Marching Band on the ground and their offense, while still having some talent, is inconsistent and lacking the great play-making ability it had under King.

Army does what service academies do, run the option, better than any of the other service academies out there. They practice ball-control, they play sound defense, and they just don't give the opposition too many chances to score.  Jeff Monken's team should be ranked in the top 25.  And while they're ranked 22nd in the AP, and 25th in the coaches poll, the College Football Playoff does not have them close in their rankings. It's a travesty, and one I doubt we see corrected in the final CFP rankings, because they're trash.

The matchup here is the Army triple option, versus the Cougar defense without Ed Oliver to stuff the run in the middle.  Houston had higher hopes this year, and given Major Applewhite's coaching history I'd say whether or not they come motivated to play is a 50/50 question at best.  Army could set the single-season team rushing record in this game.

Pick: Army to COVER -4.5

Prediction:  Houston 17  Army 35



 Dollar General Bowl

Buffalo (-2) vs. Troy [49] ML: UB -125 Troy: + 105

Buffalo had thoughts all season of a MAC Championship, but that went down in a heap with late-season losses to Ohio and Northern Illinois in the MAC Championship Game.  So, motivation IS a question here. Buffalo has a good offense led by a gifted quarterback in one Tyree Jackson, the 6" 7' flamethrower who is elusive and a powerful running in the right circumstances. His main target is NFL prospect Anthony Jackson, who is a force in college football at the receiver position. They employ a running back by committee strategy that's been effective as well.  Defensively they have some holes, especially against the run, but they do well against the pass, and have a tendency to turn the ball over on their opponents. Buffalo is also seeking their first bowl win in school history.

Troy is getting used to being good, playing in bowls, and winning them as they're trying for their 3rd consecutive bowl win in a row. Their offense begins with running back B.J. Smith he's a spectacular season eclipsing 1000 yards. Troy's passing game is suspect, with QB Sawyer Smith struggling of late after he replaced Kaleb Barker who went down with injury. He only has 10 TD's versus 6 INTs so this part of the game could be a question mark.  Their defense has questions against good passing offenses, but they stop the run well and they don't give up many points.

This feels like it could wind up being the bowl game of the early window, and possibly one of the better games of the season. Troy's defense is stingy, and Buffalo's offense is prolific. That's the first key match-up, can Troy stop Buffalo's passing game? The second match-up is Troy's offense vs. the Buffalo D.  Can Troy develop some consistency, run the ball with Smith and pass it enough to keep them from being one-handed?  I think so.

Pick:  OVER 49  & Buffalo to COVER -2

Prediction: Buffalo 37  Troy 24




Sofi Hawaii'i Bowl

Hawai'i(-1) vs. Louisiana Tech [61.5] ML UH -115 LT: -105

At the beginning of the season Hawai'i was the feel-good story of college football. Led by Freshman QB Cole McDonald Hawai'i was back to scoring points, and running the Run n' Shoot offense to perfection. They won 6 of their first 7 before losing 4 in a row and then bouncing back to win their last two.  Not coincidentally, Cole McDonald was off and on with injuries during the 4-game losing streak.  They're aggressive on defense but they can be scored on. Typically, in true Run N' Shoot fashion, they try to outscore their opposition.

Louisiana Tech is the polar opposite. Skip Holtz' crew relies on defense, and a rush-based offense. Going up against a pass-based offense should make DE Jaylon Ferguson very happy. He leads the FBS with 15 sacks on the season, and should be looking for more. The question for the Bulldogs is whether or not their offense will be able to score enough points to keep up with the Rainbow Warriors pass-happy style?

I expect Hawai'i to come out throwing, and not stop.  Louisiana Tech will make some plays on defense, but the quick passing style of the Run n' Shoot is designed to negate strong pass rushers, and the speedy WR's that the Rainbow Warriors employ will give the Bulldogs fits. I don't think this one is going to be all that close in the end.


Pick: Hawai'i to COVER -1

Prediction: Hawai'i  38  Louisiana Tech 14


Enjoy the games.

After this the college football season takes a break until after Christmas, when the P5 schools start to make more regular appearances.  I'll be taking a break as well, but will probably look at the Dec 26th and 27th games before the Holiday.

College Football: How I Quit Worrying and Learned to Love the Bowls (Part the Third)

After the first tranche of games we find ourselves 2 and 5. (And on the bad side of injury luck to start off this bowl season)

You can see parts 1 & 2 of this pick'em series here:

Part, The First
Part, The Second

In this third installment we start off with one of the more feel-good stories of the bowl season.....


Cheribundi Tart Cherry Boca Raton Bowl

University of Alabama-Birmingham (-2.5) vs. Northern Illinois [43] ML: UAB -140  UNI +120

If UAB is not the feel-good story of the year then they are close, and head coach Bill Clark rightly won every coach of the year award except the one broadcast on ESPN, thus proving that the ESPN COTY trophy should be demolished, buried in the ground and said ground salted. Two years after being all but forced out of existence by Alabama-Tuscaloosa boosters who feel, insanely, that UAB football having a program somehow hurts the Tide the Blazers came back and, against all odds, won the Conference USA title. They accomplished this by running through the C-USA schedule, only tripping up against Charlotte, and Middle Tennessee State, the latter a loss they avenged in the C-USA Championship.

Northern Illinois however was just lucky to be in the MAC Championship. They started off the season 1-3, with losses to Iowa, Utah and Florida State, only winning against lowly Central Michigan.  Then they ran roughshod over the middle part of their schedule before losing their last two conference games, only making the championship game because neither Ohio or Western Michigan could win their way in. But, in a stunner, they beat a good Buffalo team that suddenly could not move the ball against their defense.

This game should play out as a matchup between a balanced UAB team versus a Northern Illinois team that struggles to move the ball and score points, but who has a defense that covers up that deficiency fairly well. The question could be whether or not UAB has time to throw the ball against a formidable UNI pass rush that's undersized, but persistent.

Pick: Under 43

Prediction: UAB 17 UNI 13

(Note: I would grab this line at Will Hill if I could so you can take advantage of 43.5 Also, if you like UNI on the money line you're getting a better payback (+125) at Wynn, but worse than everyone else on UAB)



DXL Frisco Bowl

San Diego State vs Ohio (-2.5)  [54] ML: SDSU 120  OHIO -140

If the Aloha Bowl is the landing sport of disappointment for Power 5 teams then the Frisco Bowl is the Group of 5 equivalent. Both of these teams had hopes of winning their respective conference titles this year and both teams had disappointing seasons.

The Aztecs started off rough against Stanford before rebounding against Arizona State and snagging a quality win over Boise State. At the end of the season they fell apart losing to Nevada-Reno, Fresno State, Hawai'i and (inexplicably) UNLV. They finished the season 7-5 and there was a real chance they did not receive a bowl invitation given the Mountain West only having 5 bowl tie-ins and 7 bowl eligible teams. They did make it, and they'll try to establish their running game early, because they are not good passing the ball at all. Their defense has been inconsistent and has looked slow in several games.

The Ohio Bobcats wanted more. Coach Frank Solich' team had dreams of winning the MAC. Despite a 1-3 start they ran roughshod over the early part of their conference schedule before stumbling against Northern Illinois, and then suffering a bad loss to Miami (Ohio) at home. Thus endeth the dream season.  Running back A.J. Ouellette is the type of Senior you want to root for, and WR Papi White is a force IF QB Quentin Maxwell can get him the ball.

The question in this game is going to be motivation. Which team, if either of them, will have it? This could devolve quickly into a sloppy mud-fight of a football game full of field goals and punts. Or it could be a blowout. Having two teams disappointed coming off of the regular season makes it hard to determine. I think Solich experience prevails here and Oullette and the Ohio offense show up big.

Pick: Ohio to cover -3

Prediction: SDSU 17 Ohio 34

(Note:  If you like SDSU on the ML head to Wynn where you can still grab 130 instead of 120)



Bad Boy Mowers Gasparilla Bowl

Marshall (-2.5) vs. South Florida [55.5] ML: MU -140 USF +120

Perhaps the biggest news in this game was the announcement by Marshall WR Tyre Brady that he will be suiting up and playing in this game. That's good news for head coach Doc Holliday because his offense without Brady would have some questions. QB Isaiah Greene is plenty good however, and is a dual threat QB that makes the offense go. Defensively Marshall can be porous at times, but I'm not sure USF has the weapons to challenge them much.

USF started off the season looking great. Charlie Strong's team won their first seven games of the season, before losing horrifically to Houston and going 0-5 to finish. Ironically, it was the Strong defense (his calling card) that let them down. USF backed into a bowl slot, is not playing good football, and is having trouble  Their offensive coordinator left to assume head coaching duties at FCS McNeese State so the Tight Ends coach will be assuming the playcalling duties. (Not Shaun King which left everyone stunned)

The biggest question in this game is what happened to the Bulls?  In most of their last 5 games they weren't even competitive and many believe that it's all due to Strong not being willing to change his tendencies. IF the Bulls don't, then the Herd is going to Thunder all over them and it won't be pretty. QB Blake Barnett has to NOT turn the ball over.  At this point in his career I have next to zero faith in Strong to turn this around.

Pick: Marshall to COVER -2.5  and OVER 55.5

Prediction: Marshall 42 South Florida 35

(Note: Grab the Over line at Caesar's where you can get 54.5. I don't think it will be that close, but every little bit helps. If you're a South Florida ML player head to Caesars as well, they're offering +130)


Makers Wanted Bahamas Bowl

Florida International vs. Toledo (-6.5) [68.5] ML: FIU +210 TU: -260

To my way of thinking, this is one of the better bowl invites of the post season. Hey, you get a trip to the Bahamas. Florida International had a good season, and head coach Butch Davis had them on the cusp of playing in the C-USA championship game.  Late season losses to Lane Kiffin's FAU Owls and a 28-24 gut-punch at home from Marshall put the kibosh on those hopes. FIU's problem as it stands is off-the-field. In October 3 players were shot in a drive by shooting and just this week, rotational running back Shawndarrius Phillips was arrested on a domestic battery charge. Butch Davis is not known for doing all that well in bowl games, and it seems he's having issues keeping his team focused.

Toledo's season has been wildly inconsistent having only once won two games in a row at any point in the year. They did lose 3 in a row once as well but everything else has been win/loss/win/loss etc. Coach Jason Candele has led the team through what is undoubtedly a down year and still guided the Rockets to a winning season for the ninth year in a row. If Toledo's offense is rolling, they are running the ball, and they have a deep stable of running backs to help them do so.

FIU has had issues stopping the run, and Toledo likes to run the ball. Toledo has had issues stopping athletic WR's and FIU has those on the outside. This feels like a track meet game in the balmy Bahamas with a bunch of points scored.

Pick: Over 58.5

Prediction: FIU 42 Toledo 52

(Note: I'm grabbing this over at Caesars where I can get 68  Caesars and Will Hill are better for Toledo players, while Westgate and Wynn currently have the edge for FIU)


Famous Idaho Potato Bowl

Western Michigan vs. BYU (-13) [49.5] ML: WMU 400 BYU -550

Western Michigan's season has been streaky. They started off being overmatched by before reeling off six wins in a row against two bad teams and at the start of conference play. Then they lost three in a row in conference before finishing out the season with a win against a Northern Illinois team that had nothing to play for and played like it. Part of the reason for the swoon was the loss of QB Jake Wassnick in late October to injury, but in the Northern Illinois game Freshman QB Kaleb Elerby looked good, and gave hints that this line might be a little skewed.

BYU might be the most hollow 6-6 team in the country. They do have early wins over Arizona and Wisconsin early in the year, but since then have only beaten the likes of McNeese State, Hawai'i (in a game in which Cole McDonald was injured, UMass and NM State.  Yuck. Their offense is just above horrid, but their defense is fairly stout.  Western Michigan has a good record against teams who play like them.

The key to this game is the play of Elerby. If he can handle the BYU defense then Western Michigan should have no trouble covering the -13. I think he'll do fine, and while I think BYU will have some success running the ball against the Broncos defense, I don't think that Tanner Mangum is half the quarterback people seem to believe he is.

Pick: Western Michigan to COVER +13

Prediction: WMU 24 BYU 27

(Note: I'm happy with either Westgate or Wynn here, both are the best for this bet. IF you want to take WM on the ML then be happy with the +400 line you get as well. It's the best of any of them. 



Next up we'll take a look at the last pre-Christmas games including one game that I think might be one of the better games of the bowl season.

Las Vegas: At the Cosmopolitan, you're now paying for other's parking.

I found this little bit of news from the Cosmopolitan to be interesting:

Cosmopolitan to include parking in resort fees. Best of Las Vegas

Starting Jan. 1, The Cosmopolitan no longer will charge guests separately for parking and valet service.

Parking will be among the amenities incorporated into the resort fee, which will rise from $35 to $39.

Parking and valet currently cost $10 and $18 a day, and the change will result in $6 to $14 savings for such guests. Las Vegas locals will continue to receive the first hour of parking free of charge.

If you're from Southern California and drive to Las Vegas this is a great deal. If you're from pretty much anywhere else and fly to Las Vegas, and then take a taxi, Uber/Lyft or private car service to  The Cosmopolitan you're getting screwed.  Because you're now paying for other's parking expenses despite having none of your own.

You're literally paying for an amenity you're not using, and will never use. It's a charge on your bill that you a.) cannot get removed and b.) will receive no benefit for.

The imposition of parking fees at Strip hotels was one of the most controversial devaluations of the customer experience to date. What the Cosmopolitan has done is ensure that everyone must bear the brunt of these charges regardless of whether they're driving or not. In effect, this is a big middle-finger to The Cosmopolitan to guests who are arriving via McCarron Airport and NOT renting a car.

The article states that around a quarter of Strip guests some in from Southern California. That means that 3 out of 4 people potentially staying at The Cosmopolitan are NOT from there, and may not be driving.  I would put the number closer to 2 out of 3 since not all drivers come from Southern Cali.  that still means that The Cosmopolitan is going to experience a net increase in revenue, despite raising the fee at a lower rate than the parking.  They're going to collect a lower fee from more customers, a fee that is going to drive value down for a majority of customers, and already the local Vegas "tourism" sites are advertising this as as "win" for consumers?

This is a cash grab by Blackstone Management Group pure and simple.  And this is a shame. While pricey the Cosmopolitan is one of the better Strip casinos still, offering slightly improved odds, great amenities and comfortable lodging. Outside of TI it really is the last option on the Strip for the serious gamer.

That they would take such a customer unfriendly approach such as this is discouraging.

Yes, it's not a lot of money, but it's just a worse case of nickel & dime charges that each customer must bear. Resort fees, CNF fees, charges for high-speed wi-fi, poorer gaming odds. The molehill is becoming a mountain.

Marketing push aside, this is only increasing the size of the mountain, don't believe the hype to the contrary.

College Football: How I Quit Worrying and Learned to Love the Bowls (Part, the Second)

You can catch up with this series at the following links:

Part: The First


Now that I've said my piece, let's dig right into the game action......

(Note: All of the odds will be from Westgate but if there's a better option out there I will mention it, all odds are accurate at the time of publication and are subject to change)

December 15th:

AutoNation Cure Bowl.

Tulane (-3.5) vs. Louisiana [59] M/L: TUL -165  LOU 142

In some bowl games motivation is a question, but I don't think you're going to have an issue with that considering the teams that are playing here.Tulane Hasn't been in a bowl game since 2013 where they lost, ironically, to then Louisiana-Lafayette 24-21 in the R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl. Louisiana returns to a bowl game in head coach Billy Napier's first year after replacing Mark Hudspeth, who won the New Orleans bowl four years straight before the program steadily decline after 4 9-4 seasons.

Tulane had an up and down season, starting off with losses to Wake Forest, UAB and Ohio State before beating Memphis to turn things around, they then lost the next two before losing two more and rebounding to beat Navy 29-23 and get bowl eligible. Louisiana started off horribly, losing badly to Mississippi State and Alabama before rallying in conference play prior to losing to Appalachian State in the SunBelt Championship.

Tulane has a dual threat quarterback and is much better running the ball than throwing, Louisiana has not been the best team stopping the run.  Despite the odds I THINK Louisiana is the better team although I don't think there's all that much separating the two.

Pick:  Louisiana to COVER +3.5

Prediction: Tulane 28 Louisiana 27

(Note: Not a lot of movement between the books here but if you like Louisiana on the ML avoid Westgate (142) and Wynn (135) head to Caesars and Will Hill where you can get 145)

Celebration Bowl

Alcorn State vs. North Carolina A&T (-8) [47.5] M/L: ASU +260  NCAT  -320

Unlike some of these other bowl games I'm not going to pretend that I've seen a ton of HBCFB this year, but I have seen both teams play once or twice each and I can tell you that NCAT is the real deal. I don't think this one is going to be all that close.

Pick: Alcorn State to COVER -8

Prediction: Alcorn State 10  NC A&T 42


New Mexico Bowl

Utah State (-7.5) vs. North Texas [68.5] M/L: USU -310  UNT 250

After opening the season with a razor-close 7 point loss to Michigan State (a game they could have won to be honest) Utah State ran off 10 wins in a row before they ran into the Mountain West buzzsaw that is Boise State on the Blue Turf. Still, they played them close and were rightly considered one of the better Group of 5 teams on the season. The reward for their success? Head Coach Matt Wells jumped to P5 Texas Tech, and they hired former Oregon State, and Utah State head coach Gary Anderson to pilot the ship starting next year.  Ugh.  Still, this is a good team but I'm worried they're going to miss Wells a lot in this game.

North Texas started off like a house-of-fire winning their first three games, including a 44-17 thrashing of Arkansas, before tripping up against Louisiana Tech, UAB and Old Dominion.  But their season was a success and while it seemed dodgy for a bit, head coach Seth Luttrell ultimately decided to stay put and continue what he started building. This is a plus for them as it provides an odd bit of continuity at a rising G5 program. Something they'll be looking to take advantage of in the bowl game.

This matchup is offense heavy, with Utah State running back Darwin Thompson facing off against North Texas QB Mason Fine.  I'm expecting points although the Mean Green do have a stud LB in the person of E.J. Ejiya who should be drafted to the NFL in 2019.  Fine could also be a draft pick but it's likely he'll come back to continue with Luttrell.  I think UNT's defense will do just enough to stop the Utah State offense in a game where kicking a FG will be a dumb idea.

Pick: North Texas to WIN on the ML

Prediction: Utah State 35 North Texas 41

(Note: If you want to take the OVER go to Wynn where the line is current set at 68. Also, bet the ML at the Wynn because the payout there is currently +260 rather than +250 at the other books)



Mitsubishi Motors Las Vegas Bowl

Arizona State vs. Fresno State(-4.5) [54] M/L: ASU 170  FSU -200

Going into the season Sun Devil head coach Herm Edwards was more of a punchline than someone who many considered could lead a team to a bowl. His not knowing the mascot was the Sun Devil (and wanting to rename them the Sun Angels) was good for about two days of Twitter mockery but then the season started. The Sun Devils came out like a shot, winning their first two games, including a 16-13 win over, you guessed it, Michigan State before settling into a win/loss/win/loss pattern in conference which ended with a 41-40 thriller of a win over rival Arizona and a 7-5 record. Unfortunately for the Sun Devils their best player, WR N'Keal Harry, has decided to skip the game to prepare for the NFL draft.

Fresno State beat every Mountain West team they played this year except Boise State, and they had an unusual loss to Minnesota thrown in at the beginning of the season.  Then something interesting happened in the Mountain West championship game. They avenged the loss to the Broncos on the Smurf Turf and gave head coach Jeff Tedford the first conference win of his career. Fresno has a good quarterback in Marcus McMaryion and talent that fits well around him.  They have a defense that plays faster than it looks, and which can be ball hawking at times.

I think the biggest question in this game is how in the world are the Sun Devils going to generate any offense without Harry in the lineup?  Their second receiver only has 40 catches and the receiver replacing him only has 1 catch this year.  Then there's this: One of the problems for the Pac-12 in Power 5 inter-conference play has been that they lack the size to truly compete with their peers, and they lack overall team speed as well.  Fresno State should match up with them physically, and they might even have better athletes across the board.

Pick: Fresno State to COVER -4.5

Prediction:  Arizona State 10 Fresno State 28

(Note: There's not a lot of space between the books on these odds, but if you like ASU here head to William Hill who are at +5. Conversely: if you like Fresno, as I do, avoid Will Hill. If you like the over you want to take the 53 at Ceasars and vice versa)


Raycom Media Camellia Bowl

Georgia Southern(-2.5) vs. Eastern Michigan [47.5] M/L GSU -140 EMU +120

Last year, Georgia Southern was terrible. Then head coach Tyson Summers destroyed the option identify of the school which led to a 2-win season. New Head Coach Chad Lunsford brought back that identity and had them at 7-1, including a huge win over Appalachian State, before losing two inexplicable games down the stretch, including a head-scratcher to Louisiana-Monroe.  But they're back running the triple option (aside, ALL teams should be required by the Constitutional Amendment to run this) and are back in a bowl where they belong.

Eastern Michigan has typically been the doormat of the MAC, the team you want to schedule for homecoming because you're guaranteed a win.  That's not been the case since Chris Creighton took over as head coach.  This is a team that does not lose by much. Their biggest loss of the season was 37-22 against a tough Army team. Every other loss has been by a score. The highlight of their season was a 1-point win over a Purdue team that turned around a horrid start to make a bowl.

The matchup in this game is pretty clear. Georgia Southern is very hard to stop running the triple option, but EMU has seen this before, ran better, with Army, so they'll at least be familiar. And their defense is stout, while their offense is capable, if not spectacular That said this is a defacto home game for Georgia Southern being played in Alabama, and Georgia Southern is looking for their first 10-win season in program history.  I'm expecting a mud-wrestling event to break out, low-scoring and messy.

Pick: UNDER 47.5

Prediction: Georgia Southern 21 Eastern Michigan 10

(Note: Not a lot of advantage at the books here, if you like the Under, and I do, try to go to Caesars or Wynn and get 48 instead of 47.5. If you like GSU on the ML, then Will Hills is your current best at -130. If you're the other way when Westgate and Caesars are your play at +120)



R + L Carriers New Orleans Bowl

Middle Tennessee State vs Appalachian State (-7) [49.5] ML MTSU 225  APP -275

This season was middling for Middle Tennessee State as Sr. Quarterback Brent Stockstill thought he had played his final game under his father, Head Coach Rock Stockstill, until they got the call that they were playing in this bowl.  Stockstill has been a standout offensive player for the Blue Raiders, setting school records in passing and leading an offense that has been impressive unless they are playing some of the top teams in the country.

Appalachian State was considered, at times, to be in the running for top Group of 5 team in the country. Such success however comes with a price and the Mountaineers are looking at this bowl game without the services of Scott Satterfield, who has left to go and try to rebuild the disaster that is Louisville post Bobby Petrino. App State has a great passing defense however, and a ton of talent on the offensive side of the ball.  This is a good team who is going to have to answer the question of how they'll play without their very important head coach.

The matchup in this game is simple: Can Brent Stockstill pass the ball against the Appalachian State pass defense, which has been stingy and ball-hawking all sesason long?  If they can, then I expect Middle Tennessee State to have a chance to pull the huge upset.  Every bowl season you have to make a stand against a heavy favorite if you want to turn a profit.  This game is my stand.

Pick: Middle Tennessee State on the ML +225

Prediction: Middle Tennessee State 27 Appalachian State 24

(Note: This is a Wynn bet for me, because I can get +230 there. If you like the over go to Westgate, where you can grab 49.5 and if you like the under fiind a Will Hill book, because you can grab 50.5 there.  If you're betting App State on the ML try Caesars, the best current odds at -250)


Good luck, enjoy this Saturday, and here's hoping that we can wash the stink off of the regular season and make something happen here.

College Football: How I Quit Worrying and Learned to Love the Bowls (Part, the First)

This weekend kicks off the second most glorious time of the year: College Football Bowl Season.

Yes, it pales in comparison to sitting in one's living room for 17 hours, Door-Dashing lunch and dinner while binge watching college football until that point you're desperately searching for the late Pac-12 or Mountain West game that is still just entering the 3rd quarter at 1AM or desperately hoping the Hawai'i game is on TV, but it still offers great television and will be the last time for eight months, thanks to the NFL's local exclusivity policy, that you'll be able to watch multiple games at the same time without having to subscribe to DishTV (yuck) and pay upwards of $300 extra for the Game Day package.

And no, I don't buy into the communist lie that there are too many bowl games. There are teams with bowl-qualifying records who will be sitting at home this year.  So, if anything, there are not enough bowls.  As a matter of fact, there are 4 teams out there who wish two more bowls were being played. Oh to still have the Bluebonnet Bowl, or the California Bowl, or even the Freedom bowl. If just two of those were still standing then those four teams would be rewarded with extra practices to help them improve in future seasons.

Notice to that it's never the P5 6-6 teams that get snuffed. They always GET to conduct extra practice as a reward for mediocrity, the G5 teams are not afforded that luxury.  At a bare minimum the teams that qualified but did not get selected should be allowed to conduct as many extra practices as the teams who will be playing on Dec 15th, the first day of the bowl season.

Another thing to realize is this: College football was BETTER off when it was just governed by the bowls, before the College Football Playoff or Bowl Championship Series or even the Bowl Championship Alliance were formed.  All we had were the conference alignments to the bowls and the AP and UPI poll and we loved it.  We also spent all year talking about how either those idiot sports reporters or the dumb SID's with votes got it all wrong.  Dual Champions?  Inject those days right back into my veins along with half-shirts on linebackers, Catholics vs. Convicts and BYU and Penn State shocking the world.  Yes, Virginia, things were much better then.

You think an expanded College Football Playoff is going to make things better?

Wrong. It's going to make things worse.  Because the P5 schools will just envision new ways to omit the G5 schools from the playoff and things will get even worse.  And while there might be some good ideas out there to make an expanded playoff good, fair and honest history says that none of them will be implemented, and the powers that be will ensure that the 8-team invitation is just as exclusive as were the 2 & 4-team invitationals.

The reason for this is pretty simple.  Power 5 schools all believe that the Group of 5 schools are in a different division. Inviting one of them to the dance is akin to inviting an FCS team to participate. In fact, some of them might honestly believe that North Dakota State is more worthy of inclusion than lowly little UCF.

Now, would they schedule either of them in a home & home series?

Get the hell outta here.

So, we're going to get 41 bowl games that should be treated as just that, 41 bowl games.  Because it's sports, and this is a sports (and betting blog) I'm going to mention the CFP Championship game and discuss it but, like the last several years, I'm not going to stay up and watch it on a Monday night (what a stupid time for a college football game) when I have work at 6:30 Tuesday morning.

You shouldn't either. 

Watch every bowl game you can, ignore the CFP Championship, that's the ONLY way to return some insanity to a sport that used to be dripping with it.

It's really our only option.

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It's no secret that my betting picks in college football were trash.  It was a dumpster fire wrapped in an astroid hurtling to the bottom of the Pacific Ocean.  Probably the worst year I've had, as my bounce back weeks started off say 2-0, and then fell apart in a sea of 1-2 or 0-3 finishes. After the rough start, I never could get any traction.

I'm going to be handling the bowl games in small bunches. Wiping the slate clean and just on those. The first batch will come soon.  Then it will be pretty regular depending on when the games are played.  Let's wash away the stink of the regular season and do some good here.

Don't fret about there being so many games, embrace the madness.  It's what makes college football so amazing.

Horse Racing: Santa Anita creates "6-Zero Roulette" with a straight face.

Roulette is one of the ancient casino games, probably the first table game that still exists today and, when bet correctly, offers the player a fairly decent house edge.

On a single-zero (European) Roulette wheel the house edge is 2.7%, on a double-zero (American) Roulette wheel that increases to 5.26%, on the travesty that is Triple-Zero (Sands) Roulette the house edge increases to 7.69%.  Given that the addition of a zero appears to add about 2.5% to the house edge the latest "innovation" from the Stronach group at Santa Anita is the equivalent to Six Zero Roulette

From the Press release:

Following are the basic components and rules comprising Horse Racing Roulette at Santa Anita:
–Two dollar minimum win wager with customary industry-low 15.43 percent takeout
–Horses (minimum six-horse field) will be placed into one of three groups, Red, Black or Green.
–In most cases, the morning line favorite will be part of the Red Group.
–The Green Group will be comprised mainly of longshots.
–The three Groups, in most cases, will not have an equal number of horses.
–Whichever Group contains the race winner, wins that “game” of Horse Racing Roulette.

You read that correctly. "Horse Racing Roulette" offers bettors the chance to get an "industry-low" house edge of 15.43%

Are you kidding me?

It's one thing to understand that the takeouts in horse racing are far in excess of the "vig" in sports betting. It's another thing to tacitly admit that without doing anything about it.  But ADVERTISING an inferior game as somehow "gambler friendly"?  This is a new level of incompetence even for the horse racing industry.

An industry with a long history of discounting its horseplayers FWIW.

Now, it seems, that they've gone straight to outright insulting them.

The problem with horse racing is not that there are not enough bet types. It's that their payout structure is horrid when you take into account takeout, breakage (the downward rounding of odds at horse tracks, the profits from which are split between the track and the state to the detriment of the bettor) and the fact that you cannot lock in odds as you can with say, sports betting.

In sports betting, when I lay a bet on a 10-1 underdog I know that, regardless of the line moves, I'm going to get a payout of 10-1. If the opposing team's quarterback gets injured and my team drops to 3-1 it doesn't matter. I'm locked in.

In horse racing, due to the pari-mutual system, that 10-1 underdog I selected might take a slew of money due to scratches or track conditions, and might even drop precipitously to 3-1 or even lower. I am forced to take that payout.

If you think there's no option in horse betting you would be incorrect. On the European exchanges you can lock your odds, you can even take action against what you handicap. We see a little bit of this on the BetFair exchange in New Jersey, but other jurisdictions have been loathe to make the leap. In fact, the tracks don't like this because it helps bettors, and hurts their ability to increase their take due to breakage and other methods.

A better answer to the problem of decreased handle is not creating new, bogus, games that try to mimic better paying casino games, but to lower takeout, eliminate breakage by requiring tracks to adopt standard mathematical rounding rules and to investigate and implement exchange systems which allow horse players to lock odds.

But that is too simple, so it will never be seriously considered. Instead we're about to be given a wild array of fancy new bets I'm guessing.

The BlackJack bet: The 2 & 1 Exacta. - options would include "doubling down" (adding on the 3 & 4) and splitting the 2 & 1 on solo win tickets)

The Craps bet: The 2, 3 & 12 - options include the "Pass Line" 7 & 11 and the "Don't pass" all but 7 & 11 at 8/5 odds

And finally...

The Baccarat Daily Double 8 & 9


All with "industry low" 15.43% takeout, which is a full 15% worse than what the casinos offer.

And you wonder why horse-racing is struggling?