Ready for a bounce-back after last week's atrocity.
1. UT-Austin (-9) @ Kansas State [48]
Pick: UT-Austin to COVER -9
Old rules: Don't ever bet against K-State at home.
New Rules: This is a BAD K-State team that UT-Austin should have little trouble putting away by more than ten points. It's not that I'm buying into UT-Austin, it's that I'm selling the Wildcats. The OVER is also looking mighty fine.
2. Nevada @ Air Force (-6.5) [68]
Pick: Nevada to COVER +6.5
In a battle between two 1-2 teams, neither of whom have beaten anyone of note, I think we find ourselves with a fairly even match-up here. Look for a high-scoring back and forth game that's decided by less than a field goal either way.
3. Oregon (-2.5) @ California [59]
Pick: Oregon to COVER -2.5
Last week was a horrid beat against Stanford (more on them later) while Cal is 3-0 and does boast an increasingly impressive win over BYU. But my thought is that the Ducks have too much speed and Cal is not Stanford. Puddles enjoys this game bunches.
4. Utah (-1.5) @Washington State [59]
Pick: Washington State to WIN on the ML
I know, I know, I'm going BACK to Wazzu a week after being burned by them. But, in my defense, they are playing in Pullman where the Cougars are much better and Utah, while physical, has nowhere near the athletic ability of USC. That said, despite Wazzu's up-tempo offense, I think this is a low scoring affair. You might even be tempted by the under.
5. Stanford @ Notre Dame (-5.5) [54]
Pick: Stanford to COVER +5.5
I STILL think Notre Dame is overrated while Stanford has given them fits over the last few years. Also, Stanford has proven they can walk into South Bend and snatch a game from the Irish. Bryce Love is going to have a huge day.
Other Major Games: (I've gone away from looking at as many games, and will only comment on the bigger games or games that were on my watch-list for the FIVE.)
Ohio State (-3.5) @ Penn State [71.5] - White out alert, and even though it feels like Penn State has about a Million of these per season it's still something that gets the home crowd up and make Happy Valley a very, very difficult place to play. Don't be surprised if the Nittany Lions pull the upset here. But I'm still picking Ohio State to win.
BYU @ Washington (-17.5) [45.5] - This is a huge non-conference game for Washington, who needs to beat the Cougars and beat them convincingly. BYU has vastly out-performed my expectations for them and you just have to wonder when do they hit that part of the season where they inevitably start wearing down?
West Virginia (-3.5) @ Texas Tech [79.5] - Despite the high number, the OVER is still the play here. I also might dabble with Tech on the ML because I believe that their road win over OSU is the most impressive game of football played by either school to date.
Florida @ Mississippi State (-7.5) [51.5] - A game that will go a long way to determining the 3rd tier pecking order in the SEC this season. I THINK Miss State is the much better team, but Florida has not looked terrible this season. That said my numbers show Miss State winning big, and Florida has been AWFUL against the spread on the road.
And Finally.....
Michigan (-14) @ Northwestern [47.5]
Another week, another Michigan line that makes me nervous as hell. After beating Purdue Northwestern has looked pretty bad the last two weeks. And after losing to Notre Dame Michigan has looked pretty good. My numbers have this game much closer than 14. With Michigan winning by around a touchdown. But...it's on the road, against a team that NEEDS a win.
Go Blue.
Good luck and enjoy the games.
Thursday, September 27, 2018
Wednesday, September 26, 2018
The Shield: The Week 4 Three and Out
Some of these lines you might want to jump on pretty quickly, because they won't be around long.
1. Miami @ New England (-7) [47.5]
Pick: Miami to cover +7
No WAY this line is available by the end of the day, and if you don't lock it in, you're likely to never see it again. New England's roster is a shell of it's former self due to attrition and injuries, and the Dolphins are undefeated and playing good football.
2. Houston @ Indianapolis (-1) [47]
Pick: Indianapolis to cover -1
I'm continuing to fade Houston as the Texans are a poorly coached mess of a team, one who has never played well in Indianapolis at that. While the Colts are not world beaters, they've looked better this year and I think they win by more than a touchdown.
3. New Orleans (-3.5) @ NY Giants [50]
Pick: OVER 50
This is not a statement of faith in the Giants offense, but a stand against a Saints defense that hasn't been able to stop a hard charging Jr. High Marching Band over the first 3 weeks. I would play this angle until the books catch on and elevate the lines.
Games in which I have a rooting Interest:
San Francisco @ Los Angeles Chargers(-10.5) [46.5]
There is no hope, only darkness and despair. First Jeremy McKinnon and now Jimmy Garappolo are out for the season with ACL tears. Us 49er faithful turn our eyes to....CJ Betheard.
Oh God.
It's so bad that the team brought in Tom Savage, Tom.Freaking.Savage for a tryout. Fortunately, it looks like sanity prevailed and they're not going to sign him. Fans are calling for Kapernick, Nick Mullens is the current backup, and all is lost.
Good luck and enjoy the games.
1. Miami @ New England (-7) [47.5]
Pick: Miami to cover +7
No WAY this line is available by the end of the day, and if you don't lock it in, you're likely to never see it again. New England's roster is a shell of it's former self due to attrition and injuries, and the Dolphins are undefeated and playing good football.
2. Houston @ Indianapolis (-1) [47]
Pick: Indianapolis to cover -1
I'm continuing to fade Houston as the Texans are a poorly coached mess of a team, one who has never played well in Indianapolis at that. While the Colts are not world beaters, they've looked better this year and I think they win by more than a touchdown.
3. New Orleans (-3.5) @ NY Giants [50]
Pick: OVER 50
This is not a statement of faith in the Giants offense, but a stand against a Saints defense that hasn't been able to stop a hard charging Jr. High Marching Band over the first 3 weeks. I would play this angle until the books catch on and elevate the lines.
Games in which I have a rooting Interest:
San Francisco @ Los Angeles Chargers(-10.5) [46.5]
There is no hope, only darkness and despair. First Jeremy McKinnon and now Jimmy Garappolo are out for the season with ACL tears. Us 49er faithful turn our eyes to....CJ Betheard.
Oh God.
It's so bad that the team brought in Tom Savage, Tom.Freaking.Savage for a tryout. Fortunately, it looks like sanity prevailed and they're not going to sign him. Fans are calling for Kapernick, Nick Mullens is the current backup, and all is lost.
Good luck and enjoy the games.
Tuesday, September 25, 2018
The Shield: FINALLY - A winning week at something. Recapping the Week Three 3 and Out
I've had gambling slumps, and then I've had the start of this season, a season where every line I look at feels wrong for some reason. In college football. For the NFL I've actually been OK. So I'm keeping my models the same for the Shield, and making some adjustments to the college game.
But the GOOD News is I went 2-1 this week in the 3 & out which raises my season record to 5-4. It's not world beating, but it gives me some hope that we're hitting the end of the dark tunnel and the light we see at the end isn't a train.
Let's recap quickly:
1. New Orleans @ Atlanta (-3) [53]
Pick: OVER 53
This might have been my easiest pick of the week because for all of the offensive proficiency by both teams in this game neither has a top half defense by my calculations.
2. New York Giants @ Texans (-6) [41.5]
Pick: New York Giants to COVER +6
Nope: I STILL don't trust the Texans, possibly the 2nd worst coached team in the NFL behind the Raiders. I ALMOST played the Giants on the ML but decided to be conservative.
3. Pittsburgh (-1) @ Tampa Bay [53.5]
Pick: Tampa Bay to win on the ML
My one miss of the week and it was close. I really thought that Tampa Bay had a chance at home, especially given Pittsburgh's issues of late. Ah well.
Will have a new 3 and out tomorrow and a new FIVE on Thursday.
Let's keep this turnaround going.
But the GOOD News is I went 2-1 this week in the 3 & out which raises my season record to 5-4. It's not world beating, but it gives me some hope that we're hitting the end of the dark tunnel and the light we see at the end isn't a train.
Let's recap quickly:
1. New Orleans @ Atlanta (-3) [53]
Pick: OVER 53
This might have been my easiest pick of the week because for all of the offensive proficiency by both teams in this game neither has a top half defense by my calculations.
2. New York Giants @ Texans (-6) [41.5]
Pick: New York Giants to COVER +6
Nope: I STILL don't trust the Texans, possibly the 2nd worst coached team in the NFL behind the Raiders. I ALMOST played the Giants on the ML but decided to be conservative.
3. Pittsburgh (-1) @ Tampa Bay [53.5]
Pick: Tampa Bay to win on the ML
My one miss of the week and it was close. I really thought that Tampa Bay had a chance at home, especially given Pittsburgh's issues of late. Ah well.
Will have a new 3 and out tomorrow and a new FIVE on Thursday.
Let's keep this turnaround going.
Monday, September 24, 2018
College Football: Recapping my no-good,very bad, totally awful Week 4 FIVE
Ouch.
Some weeks in sports gaming you feel so sure that things are going to roll your way. Then the games start and it becomes a tire-fire. This was my week 4 FIVE as my desire to continue to pick underdogs I thought would be facing vulnerable favorites turned South in a hurry, and the favorites that I did side with laid an egg.
So, 0-5 then, bringing my season total to an embarrassing 6-13-1. (30%)
Now you see why I don't try to tout my picks. You'd be insane to pay for this information. I've said before that if you're looking to an accountant in Houston to provide you with gambling advice, get help. Seriously.
Let's take a look at how it all went wrong.
Some weeks in sports gaming you feel so sure that things are going to roll your way. Then the games start and it becomes a tire-fire. This was my week 4 FIVE as my desire to continue to pick underdogs I thought would be facing vulnerable favorites turned South in a hurry, and the favorites that I did side with laid an egg.
So, 0-5 then, bringing my season total to an embarrassing 6-13-1. (30%)
Now you see why I don't try to tout my picks. You'd be insane to pay for this information. I've said before that if you're looking to an accountant in Houston to provide you with gambling advice, get help. Seriously.
Let's take a look at how it all went wrong.
1. Washington State @ USC (-3.5) [53]
Pick: Washington State to WIN on the ML.
Things started out OK. At halftime Wazzu was up 24-17 on USC and I thought I was going to be off to a decent start. But then the Cougars "Couged it" and USC scored 15 4th quarter points to grab victory from the jaws of defeat. No problem, I thought, most of my picks are on Saturday....
2. Pitt (-3.5) @ North Carolina [48.5]
Pick: Pitt to cover -3.5
There was nothing in North Carolina's body of work to date that suggested they had this kind of game in them. Again, at halftime Pitt was leading by a touchdown and I felt pretty good about things. Then NC won the 3rd quarter 17-0 and I knew I was looking at a long day.
3. Louisville @ Virginia (-5) [54.5]
Pick: Louisville to COVER +5
This one is on me. I should have known better than to trust any team coached by Bobby Petrino. I didn't think Louisville was good, but I didn't think they were THAT bad on offense. Fool me once, shame on you, there won't be a second time with this team.
4. Northern Illinois @ Florida State (-10) [45]
Pick: Northern Illinois to COVER +10
Again, I didn't think NIU would win here but I did think Florida State was bad enough that they had a chance to cover. In the end, they ALMOST snuck in through the back door but a late turnover killed that hope. By now it was looking bleak but at least I thought TCU would right the ship and prevent a total disaster....
5. TCU (-3) @ Texas [47.5]
Pick: TCU to cover -3
Never mind. When Texas poured it on in the 2nd half and TCU folded up the tent I knew this weekend was toast. Of all the results I was most surprised by this one. I also think it's the one that's going to cause the biggest issue going forward as the Longhorns are going to be overrated from this point forward.
OK Look. These things happen. When you see touts talk about going "5-0 during the weekend" you never see the weeks where they go 0-fer in this manner. They cover them up. My goal is to make it work over the long haul and one bad week doesn't change that goal. Next week's FIVE will be better, and so will the one after that.
Every season I have a week (or three) where I just miss. Either my numbers are off or one team comes out of nowhere to do something odd. That's gambling, ask anyone who was on the Minnesota Vikings yesterday how that worked out for them.
The point is that gambling is entertainment, and having something on the games makes them even more entertaining. You should always view money wagered as money lost. It's the price you pay to be entertained.
As a reminder, I'm tracking the financial performance of a $100 bet over at CappedIn. Of course the week that I finally remembered to do it was the week where I went 0 for 5. But I'm going to do a better job of this going forward. Hopefully we can find some wins next week. I need a bounce back something fierce. The goal remains the same, better than 50% in the FIVE picks throughout the season. One winning week gets us right back on track.
Thursday, September 20, 2018
College Football: The Week 4 FIVE
Let's just call this turnaround week and get straight to the games. The overall record over the first three weeks is not horrid, but we could use a run here. Part of the problem is that I'm picking money line upsets by road teams. A strategy that I'm curtailing, but not totally cutting back on this week.
1. Washington State @ USC (-3.5) [53]
Pick: Washington State to WIN on the ML.
USC looked horrid last week against a not-all-that-great Texas Longhorn team. Washington State has spent the first three weeks winning against inferior competition. But they have avoided the dreaded Mike Leach early game disaster and their offense appears to be fairly potent this year. I LIKE Washington State to win on the ML and I also like the over, but the latter is not the official FIVE pick.
2. Pitt (-3.5) @ North Carolina [48.5]
Pick: Pitt to cover -3.5
Larry Fedora's Tar Heels have looked inept so far this season while Pitt has a good win over Georgia Tech that followed a blowout loss to Penn State. But you have to like the Panthers here big. It's hard to believe that Fedora was a hot coaching candidate for a big program just a couple of years ago. His team has hit hard times and I expect that trend to stay the same this year.
3. Louisville @ Virginia (-5) [54.5]
Pick: Louisville to COVER +5
Since getting humiliated by Alabama in the season opener Louisville has been OK. They bounced back against weak competition and then beat another not very good this year team in Western Kentucky. The Cavaliers lost to Indiana and then beat a pretty good Ohio team at home. But I think this is a close game against two teams that are pretty much the same right now.
4. Northern Illinois @ Florida State (-10) [45]
Pick: Northern Illinois to COVER +10
Yes, Northern Illinois got beat by Iowa (in a game they were actually leading at halftime) and then got ground down by Utah. But they hung in with two pretty good Power 5 teams and now they face a Florida State team that's struggling to beat FCS Samford. I'm not sure why so many people think this is the week Florida State gets right, but I do think Northern Illinois covers here and maybe even pulls the upset.
5. TCU (-3) @ Texas [47.5]
Pick: TCU to cover -3
Until a disastrous 4th quarter, TCU was right there against Ohio State, probably one of the top 4 teams in the country. Texas lost to a pretty bad Maryland team, struggled against Tulsa, before beating up what appears to be a pretty bad USC team. Advantage Horned Frogs. I think TCU scores early and often on the Longhorns, and their defense is going to give Bevo fits all game long.
Other Games of note:
Tulsa @ Temple (-7) [54.5] - This promises to be a fun Thursday night game and is a good option to replace what is sure to be an NFL stinker in the Jets and Browns on your television. Give the NFL a pass and watch this game between two American Conference foes who are pretty evenly matched. If anything, take the over.
Minnesota @ Maryland (-2) [47] - I'm not entirely sure why Maryland is favored in this game as PJ Fleck's Gophers have rowed that damn boat to three straight wins to start the season, including a good win over Fresno State. There are signs that the Terrapins are starting to unwind a little bit due to the emotion surrounding the team right now.
Akron @ Iowa State (-19) [47.5] - I think this line is giving too much credit to Iowa State based on them keeping it somewhat close against Iowa and Oklahoma (both games they lost by 10) and too little to Akron who beat a good Northwestern team at Northwestern. This is a personal play by me probably, depending on how the line moves, but not included in my FIVE.
Boston College (-6.5) @ Purdue [67] - No team has had a worse start to the season than Purdue. Heartbreaking losses to Northwestern, Eastern Michigan and Missouri have pundits giving them the title of "Best no-win team in the country". I'm not sure about that but I do think that Boston College is overrated and are getting too much credit for beating UMass, Holy Cross and a Wake Forest team that's only beaten Tulane and Towson.
Nevada @ Toledo (-10.5) [68]- This line feels out of whack to me. Nevada has not been terrible this year while Toledo got ran over by a pretty average Miami team. I would be very tempted to take Nevada and the points here, especially if the line drifts further Toledo's way.
Kansas State @ West Virginia (-16) [60.5] - For me this is a "stay away, stay far away" game. West Virginia has looked good to start the season while the Wildcats have been "meh", so this could either be a statement win for the Mountaineers or it COULD be a Bill Snyder special. I wouldn't touch this game.
Texas Tech @ Oklahoma State (-14) [77.5] - I was fooled last week by both of these teams. I'm not even giving them the chance to fool me this week. If this were in Lubbock I'd give the Red Raiders a chance to cover, I don't think they have the chance in Stillwater. That said, even at 78 the over is looking tasty.
Texas Tech @ Oklahoma State (-14) [77.5] - I was fooled last week by both of these teams. I'm not even giving them the chance to fool me this week. If this were in Lubbock I'd give the Red Raiders a chance to cover, I don't think they have the chance in Stillwater. That said, even at 78 the over is looking tasty.
Texas A&M @ Alabama (-26.5) [61] - At this point I wouldn't be surprised if Bama wins by 60. Tide football is yawn inducing and unless something changes I can't see anyone in the country with a chance at beating them. I would argue that the Aggies are their toughest competition to date, but they couldn't beat Clemson at College Station.
Florida (-4.5) @ Tennessee [47] - Stay away from this game, far away. There are not two more unreliable programs in college football right now. Florida might be pretty good, but they are inconsistent, and the Vols are still trying to figure out exactly who they are.
Florida (-4.5) @ Tennessee [47] - Stay away from this game, far away. There are not two more unreliable programs in college football right now. Florida might be pretty good, but they are inconsistent, and the Vols are still trying to figure out exactly who they are.
Stanford (-2) @ Oregon [56.5] - If a week 4 game can truly be "must win" then this week's game is certainly one for Oregon. I love that it's in Autzen and it's honestly one of the better matchups of the weekend. Neither team has done anything to convince you that they're vulnerable and I'm betting Bryce Love plays in this one. Must watch TV.
Wisconsin (-3) @ Iowa. [43.5] - This feels so much like a trap line that I'm staying away. I'm also leaning toward staying away from watching most of it because this could be a 4 quarter slog. Iowa wins, Wisconsin (usually) wins, but Lord are these two teams boring. Good matchup though, Wisconsin needs this badly after last week's debacle against BYU.
Games in which I have a rooting interest:
UNLV @ Arkansas State (-7.5) [68] - I said at the beginning of the season that the Desert Rug Rats were going to need to win a game they're not supposed to in order to become bowl eligible this season. THIS is one of those games. Arkansas State is a good Sun Belt team but they don't appear to be as good as they were in recent years. They, of course, got hammered against Bama and struggled against Tulsa. UNLV looked good for a half against (what we now think might not be a very good) USC and then beat up on inferior competition. A Rebels victory here would be MASSIVE for the program.
And Finally......
Nebraska @ Michigan (-17.5) [50] - Every fiber of my being hates this line, this game, this situation. Nebraska has struggled under new coach Scott Frost but Michigan has a recent history of letting struggling teams get right in the Big House. At the end of the season we might look back on that Troy loss with more favor. I don't think Michigan's loss to Notre Dame is going to be viewed all that favorably as the Irish get into the meat of the schedule where I figure some losses will come. I never place bets on games in which I have a rooting interest, but were I to play this game I'd lean toward the Cornhuskers with a lump in my throat.
Wednesday, September 19, 2018
NFL: The Week 3 Three and Out.
Somewhat of a rough one last week. 1-2 bringing me to 3-3 for the season. Right at .500. Given the VIG this means my ROI is negative right now.
But, in every life a little rain must fall. I feel like I'm starting to get a better feel for this NFL season, so let's see if I can pick the correct 3 games....
1. New Orleans @ Atlanta (-3) [53]
Pick: OVER 53
If there is one thing we've noticed this year it's that New Orleans' defense is not all that good against the pass. And Atlanta can pass the ball. New Orleans offense behind Drew Brees is still pretty damn good, and can score points in bunches. I really like the over here. This could be one that hits the number early so we can enjoy the second half.
2. New York Giants @ Texans (-6) [41.5]
Pick: New York Giants to COVER +6
Let's be real honest here, these are two pathetic teams. Yet both franchise's fan bases have been convinced by local media that they are "supremely talented". At certain spots, yes they are, but neither team has a working offensive line and both teams have huge holes at certain spots in their defense. I think whoever wins this they do it in an ugly, unwatchable game that's decided by a late field goal.
3. Pittsburgh (-1) @ Tampa Bay [53.5]
Pick: Tampa Bay to win on the ML
There's no way I'm betting against FitzMagic. Especially when you consider that Pittsburgh is a hot mess right now and Tampa Bay is playing some of their best football. There's also this:
Tampa Bay by a mile.
Game in which I have a rooting interest:
San Francisco @ Kansas City (-6.5) [56]
What to say here? I think the Niners are going to find themselves up against it against the hottest team to start the season, at Arrowhead. We're starting to see just how much the McKinnon injury hurts as this offense is becoming more and more one handed as the season goes on. There will come a time this year when Andy Reid messes it all up but I don't think it will be this game. The alcohol might be flowing early in this game, it's gonna hurt.
Good luck and enjoy the games.
But, in every life a little rain must fall. I feel like I'm starting to get a better feel for this NFL season, so let's see if I can pick the correct 3 games....
1. New Orleans @ Atlanta (-3) [53]
Pick: OVER 53
If there is one thing we've noticed this year it's that New Orleans' defense is not all that good against the pass. And Atlanta can pass the ball. New Orleans offense behind Drew Brees is still pretty damn good, and can score points in bunches. I really like the over here. This could be one that hits the number early so we can enjoy the second half.
2. New York Giants @ Texans (-6) [41.5]
Pick: New York Giants to COVER +6
Let's be real honest here, these are two pathetic teams. Yet both franchise's fan bases have been convinced by local media that they are "supremely talented". At certain spots, yes they are, but neither team has a working offensive line and both teams have huge holes at certain spots in their defense. I think whoever wins this they do it in an ugly, unwatchable game that's decided by a late field goal.
3. Pittsburgh (-1) @ Tampa Bay [53.5]
Pick: Tampa Bay to win on the ML
There's no way I'm betting against FitzMagic. Especially when you consider that Pittsburgh is a hot mess right now and Tampa Bay is playing some of their best football. There's also this:
Tampa Bay by a mile.
Game in which I have a rooting interest:
San Francisco @ Kansas City (-6.5) [56]
What to say here? I think the Niners are going to find themselves up against it against the hottest team to start the season, at Arrowhead. We're starting to see just how much the McKinnon injury hurts as this offense is becoming more and more one handed as the season goes on. There will come a time this year when Andy Reid messes it all up but I don't think it will be this game. The alcohol might be flowing early in this game, it's gonna hurt.
Good luck and enjoy the games.
Tuesday, September 18, 2018
Sports Betting: Recapping the Week 3 FIVE and the Week 2 NFL 3 and Out.
I knew, when making last week's picks, that I was taking a big chance by taking a lot of underdogs to win on the ML. Some times it plays out OK, sometimes you get kicked in the head. Last weekend I got kicked in the head pretty hard.
The FIVE results: 2-3. (Season to Date 6-8-1)
Winners:
1. North Texas @ Arkansas (-7) [69]
Pick: North Texas to COVER +7
I originally missed on North Texas, thinking them to be a little overrated, but I copped to my error early and now think they are a dark horse contender to be the Group of 5's representative in the New Year's 6 Bowl Festivities. Granted, a LOT of things have to happen for this to be the case.
3. Florida State (-3) @ Syracuse [68.5]
Pick: Syracuse to win on the M/L
This was, to me, an easy pick. Florida State is a dumpster fire right now and the Orange look every bit like possible contenders in the ACC.
Losers:
2. UTSA @ Kansas State (-21.5) [46.5]
Pick: UTSA to COVER +21.5
The final score was 41-17. Which surprised, in large part because I didn't think Kansas State had that type of offensive effort in them.
4. Boise State @ Oklahoma State (-2.5) [64.5]
Pick: Boise State to win on the M/L
I was very disappointed by the Broncos effort in this game. I'm still not sold on Okie State being a dominant team this season despite how easily they handed Boise State.
5. Houston (-1) @ Texas Tech [69.5]
Pick: Houston to cover -1
I was very surprised by this game. Houston is looking more and more like they're reverting to the Art Briles years, where they were OK offensively but terrible on defense. And this is WITH Ed Oliver on the Defensive Line. Major Applewhite is probably not the worst football coach in Houston right now, that honor belongs to Bill O'Brien, but he's a close second and might follow the former out the door after this year.
The NFL 3 and Out Results: 1-2 Season to date: 3-3
Winner:
2. Kansas City @ Pittsburgh (-4.5) [52.5]
Pick: Kansas City to Cover +4.5
How about an outright win for KC, who looks all the world like the best offensive team in football right now. Granted, this is an Andy Reid team so take these early results with a grain of salt. I also expect the Over in Chiefs games to be the norm going forward.
Losers:
1. Baltimore @ Cincinnati (-1) [44].
Pick: Baltimore to win on the M/L.
Wait, is it possible that the Bengals are GOOD this year? Or it's possible that Joe Flacco is not elite, that the defense is not as good as advertised and that GM Newsome has lost a little bit of his shine. Or both could be true.
3. NY Giants @ Dallas (-3) [42]
Pick: New York to win on the ML.
I made on huge error in handicapping this game: I underestimated just how bad the Giants were in all aspects of playing football.
Ah well, new week, new picks coming on Wednesday and Thursday. At this point however you might want to FADE.
The FIVE results: 2-3. (Season to Date 6-8-1)
Winners:
1. North Texas @ Arkansas (-7) [69]
Pick: North Texas to COVER +7
I originally missed on North Texas, thinking them to be a little overrated, but I copped to my error early and now think they are a dark horse contender to be the Group of 5's representative in the New Year's 6 Bowl Festivities. Granted, a LOT of things have to happen for this to be the case.
3. Florida State (-3) @ Syracuse [68.5]
Pick: Syracuse to win on the M/L
This was, to me, an easy pick. Florida State is a dumpster fire right now and the Orange look every bit like possible contenders in the ACC.
Losers:
2. UTSA @ Kansas State (-21.5) [46.5]
Pick: UTSA to COVER +21.5
The final score was 41-17. Which surprised, in large part because I didn't think Kansas State had that type of offensive effort in them.
4. Boise State @ Oklahoma State (-2.5) [64.5]
Pick: Boise State to win on the M/L
I was very disappointed by the Broncos effort in this game. I'm still not sold on Okie State being a dominant team this season despite how easily they handed Boise State.
5. Houston (-1) @ Texas Tech [69.5]
Pick: Houston to cover -1
I was very surprised by this game. Houston is looking more and more like they're reverting to the Art Briles years, where they were OK offensively but terrible on defense. And this is WITH Ed Oliver on the Defensive Line. Major Applewhite is probably not the worst football coach in Houston right now, that honor belongs to Bill O'Brien, but he's a close second and might follow the former out the door after this year.
The NFL 3 and Out Results: 1-2 Season to date: 3-3
Winner:
2. Kansas City @ Pittsburgh (-4.5) [52.5]
Pick: Kansas City to Cover +4.5
How about an outright win for KC, who looks all the world like the best offensive team in football right now. Granted, this is an Andy Reid team so take these early results with a grain of salt. I also expect the Over in Chiefs games to be the norm going forward.
Losers:
1. Baltimore @ Cincinnati (-1) [44].
Pick: Baltimore to win on the M/L.
Wait, is it possible that the Bengals are GOOD this year? Or it's possible that Joe Flacco is not elite, that the defense is not as good as advertised and that GM Newsome has lost a little bit of his shine. Or both could be true.
3. NY Giants @ Dallas (-3) [42]
Pick: New York to win on the ML.
I made on huge error in handicapping this game: I underestimated just how bad the Giants were in all aspects of playing football.
Ah well, new week, new picks coming on Wednesday and Thursday. At this point however you might want to FADE.
Monday, September 17, 2018
Houston Texans: Another week, another example of a team that's out-coached.
Is Head Coach Bill O'Brien on the hot-seat?
Should he be?
As a resident of Houston I've noticed that even the Texans flagship radio station, KILT 610, has stopped deferring to the Texans in the name of continued access and has questioned his coaching abilities. Forgetting for a minute that they are right in doing so, what we're hearing on the radio waves is unprecedented stuff.
Even last year, when it was evident that coach BO'B was frequently out-matched in most games, the excuses were being laid down hot and heavy for him. "Injuries" and "It's hard to win in this league" were the norm and almost everyone had "faith" in BO'B to lead the Texans to the promised land.
I was never so sure, and not since the (pretty boring) season of Hard Knocks that featured the Texans have I found much to like in his coaching skills. Now he's calling plays and I'm even less convinced.
While it's true that the Texans have one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL, coach O'Brien seems to have no clue how to play-call around that. He continues to put an obviously still-ailing Watson in situations where he's not going to succeed.
Here's a hint Bill: You CAN call something different than a run up the middle on 1st down. I realize that this is heady stuff but it can be done. Also, even though Watson is obviously still recovering from last season's ACL tear, you can move him out of the pocket.
Your offensive line is struggling in pass protection, try some short passes that aren't tunnel screens to build a rhythm. Get something shorter than 2nd and 7 and THEN try and run the ball some. Lamar Miller is looking good this year but his stats do not.
The defense played well for one half yesterday, but special teams are still a mess and then you can always go back to that offense....
As unbelievable as it seems, the upcoming game against the New York Giants is a must win. Because they Giants are struggling even worse than are the Texans, and they have to go on the road and they have an offensive line that is giving Eli Manning the creeping horrors. This ignores the question of whether or not Eli is even a viable NFL quarterback any longer. Increasingly the evidence is coming back that he's just not.
But most NFL teams are starting to view the Texans as a "get right game" a game where any and all errors of execution can be fixed against a vanilla offense and an under-performing defense. They also know and understand that, in a close game, they have the coaching advantage clearly on their side.
Can the season still be saved? Sure.
Do you think Bill O'Brien is the man to lead a turnaround? No. Not even remotely.
Owner Bob McNair has never struck me as one who possesses a burning desire to win the Super Bowl, as such he's stuck with bad decisions far longer than he should have. He's also failed to understand how the NFL game is played and rewarded loyalty and character over the ability to, you know, actually play in the NFL when it comes to personnel.
Sadly, McNair will get that thing that he most desires this week when the Texans will announce a sell-out in a game that will only barely be televised. The stadium is full and McNair is raking in the money.
Take that Texans fan. You putz.
Should he be?
As a resident of Houston I've noticed that even the Texans flagship radio station, KILT 610, has stopped deferring to the Texans in the name of continued access and has questioned his coaching abilities. Forgetting for a minute that they are right in doing so, what we're hearing on the radio waves is unprecedented stuff.
Even last year, when it was evident that coach BO'B was frequently out-matched in most games, the excuses were being laid down hot and heavy for him. "Injuries" and "It's hard to win in this league" were the norm and almost everyone had "faith" in BO'B to lead the Texans to the promised land.
I was never so sure, and not since the (pretty boring) season of Hard Knocks that featured the Texans have I found much to like in his coaching skills. Now he's calling plays and I'm even less convinced.
While it's true that the Texans have one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL, coach O'Brien seems to have no clue how to play-call around that. He continues to put an obviously still-ailing Watson in situations where he's not going to succeed.
Here's a hint Bill: You CAN call something different than a run up the middle on 1st down. I realize that this is heady stuff but it can be done. Also, even though Watson is obviously still recovering from last season's ACL tear, you can move him out of the pocket.
Your offensive line is struggling in pass protection, try some short passes that aren't tunnel screens to build a rhythm. Get something shorter than 2nd and 7 and THEN try and run the ball some. Lamar Miller is looking good this year but his stats do not.
The defense played well for one half yesterday, but special teams are still a mess and then you can always go back to that offense....
As unbelievable as it seems, the upcoming game against the New York Giants is a must win. Because they Giants are struggling even worse than are the Texans, and they have to go on the road and they have an offensive line that is giving Eli Manning the creeping horrors. This ignores the question of whether or not Eli is even a viable NFL quarterback any longer. Increasingly the evidence is coming back that he's just not.
But most NFL teams are starting to view the Texans as a "get right game" a game where any and all errors of execution can be fixed against a vanilla offense and an under-performing defense. They also know and understand that, in a close game, they have the coaching advantage clearly on their side.
Can the season still be saved? Sure.
Do you think Bill O'Brien is the man to lead a turnaround? No. Not even remotely.
Owner Bob McNair has never struck me as one who possesses a burning desire to win the Super Bowl, as such he's stuck with bad decisions far longer than he should have. He's also failed to understand how the NFL game is played and rewarded loyalty and character over the ability to, you know, actually play in the NFL when it comes to personnel.
Sadly, McNair will get that thing that he most desires this week when the Texans will announce a sell-out in a game that will only barely be televised. The stadium is full and McNair is raking in the money.
Take that Texans fan. You putz.
College Football: After Week 3, Some Things.....
Week 3 brought some upsets, some big wins, and some establishments of dominance going forward. Here are some things that I noticed.
1. Alabama is dominant. - I'm not going to jump on the media bandwagon and say "no one can beat them" because, of course they can be beaten. But to hang with them it's going to require a talented team with a brilliant game-plan executed perfectly. And some luck to boot. At this point the Crimson Tide are sitting at 3-0 and they're looking likely to be 8-0 when they head to Baton Rouge in November. The Aggies might put up a fight, but the game is in Tuscaloosa where 'Bama hasn't lost since the days of Johnny Football.
2. Georgia is pretty good too. - Last year both Alabama and Georgia made the College Football Playoff. This year it's not unthinkable that this could happen again. The Bulldogs have eclipsed 40 points in every game so far, and their high conceded is 17 against South Carolina. In reality the Bulldogs have two tough games remaining on their schedule, LSU and Auburn. Like Alabama they DO have to travel to Baton Rouge, which sets up nice for the Tigers.
3. HOW good is LSU? - In terms of "resume" there's an argument to be made that LSU should currently be the top team in the Country. They destroyed then top-ten ranked Miami and won a close one over still top-ten ranked Auburn, on the road. As mentioned previously, they have their two toughest remaining games at home. IF they survive that their hardest remaining test is Texas aTm on the road. This could be a special season for LSU.
4. Did Jimbo see this coming? - Florida State is BAD. And they are severely depleted in talent on the offensive side of the football. Coach Willie Taggert has a history of rebuilding programs, and it looks like he's going to need to do the same thing in Tallahassee. The question now is, Did Jimbo Fisher see this mess in the works and decide to jump-ship to aTm in advance. If so that should raise some warning flags for fans of the Aggies because it was he who oversaw the decline in talent at Florida State. Also, LOSE the turnover backpack. It's horrid and football karma dictates that you will stink until it goes away.
5. Who's going to be the Group of 5 New Year's Day team? - It was a bad day for Group of 5 favorites. Boise State, who I thought would be good, got humbled by a decent Oklahoma State team in Stillwater and Houston, who I also thought would be good, forgot how to play defense and got rolled by a pretty average Texas Tech team. If Houston head coach Major Applewhite isn't on the hot seat, he should be. Right now the leader in the chase to NY6 is UCF, but I would not count out North Texas. The Mean Green's humiliation of Arkansas (including the best punt run-back to date) was a signature win and the rest of their schedule is doable.
6. Bad weekend for the B1G. - We know this much, Ohio State is pretty good, possibly Penn State as well, but the rest of the conference is mediocre at best. And then there's Iowa, who never looks all that good but continues to win games, wave at the children's hospital and otherwise fly under the radar to 10 win seasons. Michigan is still not a dominant team. Nebraska is struggling under new coach Scott Frost and the rest of the conference is facing rough waters.
7. The Big XII appears to be better than we thought. - We knew Oklahoma would be good, but Oklahoma State and West Virginia might be up there as well. Texas bounced back well against an USC team that might not be good at all and after that it starts to get a little shaky. Kansas State is starting to show signs of life and Iowa State still looks poised to pull an upset or three. Baylor looks hopeless but we now live in a world where the Kansas Jayhawks are on a 2-game winning streak. TCU's reputation did take a pretty good hit however, although they did compete against the Urban Meyer-less Buckeyes.
8. What to make of Notre Dame? - They're 3-0, but they haven't looked like world beaters in two of the three games. Oddly enough, the one game where they did look impressive was against what is, on paper, the best team they played. Their next three games are a step up in competition, as they travel to Wake Forest before hosting a tough Stanford team and then traveling to Blacksburg to face a resurgent Virginia Tech squad. We're going to know exactly who they are after those three games.
9. Stanford might be the best team in the PAC-XII. - And it could not be all that close. We'll find out for sure over the next two weeks when they have tough back-to-back road tests against Oregon and Notre Dame. IF the Cardinal get through that the rest of the schedule is suddenly looking a LOT easier, and a possible path opens up to the CFP. Of course, the November game in Washington will be key. Still a long way to go.
10. The Desert Rug-Rats have taken care of business. - UNLV is now sitting at 2-1 and are looking at the toughest part of their schedule in the upcoming weeks, facing Arkansas State on the road, New Mexico at home, Utah State on the road and then Air Force comes to town. If the Rug Rats can go 2-2 in these games a bowl game berth will look very likely. Any better and it should almost be a certainty, and worse and it's an uphill climb.
And Finally.....
11. The CFP continues to ruin college football. - Outside of College GameDay on ESPN, there is no quality college football analysis on TV. Fox has spit the bit, relying on Clay Travis too much while CBS continues to fumble around in SEC land, NBC is a non-entity and much of what you read online is more focused on silliness, or too overly reliant on the CFP to provide much insight. It won't happen because of TV deals, but I really believe college football would be better off if the CFP was scrapped and we returned to the old bowl system. Including a return to the primacy of New Year's Day games. Free College Football!!
1. Alabama is dominant. - I'm not going to jump on the media bandwagon and say "no one can beat them" because, of course they can be beaten. But to hang with them it's going to require a talented team with a brilliant game-plan executed perfectly. And some luck to boot. At this point the Crimson Tide are sitting at 3-0 and they're looking likely to be 8-0 when they head to Baton Rouge in November. The Aggies might put up a fight, but the game is in Tuscaloosa where 'Bama hasn't lost since the days of Johnny Football.
2. Georgia is pretty good too. - Last year both Alabama and Georgia made the College Football Playoff. This year it's not unthinkable that this could happen again. The Bulldogs have eclipsed 40 points in every game so far, and their high conceded is 17 against South Carolina. In reality the Bulldogs have two tough games remaining on their schedule, LSU and Auburn. Like Alabama they DO have to travel to Baton Rouge, which sets up nice for the Tigers.
3. HOW good is LSU? - In terms of "resume" there's an argument to be made that LSU should currently be the top team in the Country. They destroyed then top-ten ranked Miami and won a close one over still top-ten ranked Auburn, on the road. As mentioned previously, they have their two toughest remaining games at home. IF they survive that their hardest remaining test is Texas aTm on the road. This could be a special season for LSU.
4. Did Jimbo see this coming? - Florida State is BAD. And they are severely depleted in talent on the offensive side of the football. Coach Willie Taggert has a history of rebuilding programs, and it looks like he's going to need to do the same thing in Tallahassee. The question now is, Did Jimbo Fisher see this mess in the works and decide to jump-ship to aTm in advance. If so that should raise some warning flags for fans of the Aggies because it was he who oversaw the decline in talent at Florida State. Also, LOSE the turnover backpack. It's horrid and football karma dictates that you will stink until it goes away.
5. Who's going to be the Group of 5 New Year's Day team? - It was a bad day for Group of 5 favorites. Boise State, who I thought would be good, got humbled by a decent Oklahoma State team in Stillwater and Houston, who I also thought would be good, forgot how to play defense and got rolled by a pretty average Texas Tech team. If Houston head coach Major Applewhite isn't on the hot seat, he should be. Right now the leader in the chase to NY6 is UCF, but I would not count out North Texas. The Mean Green's humiliation of Arkansas (including the best punt run-back to date) was a signature win and the rest of their schedule is doable.
6. Bad weekend for the B1G. - We know this much, Ohio State is pretty good, possibly Penn State as well, but the rest of the conference is mediocre at best. And then there's Iowa, who never looks all that good but continues to win games, wave at the children's hospital and otherwise fly under the radar to 10 win seasons. Michigan is still not a dominant team. Nebraska is struggling under new coach Scott Frost and the rest of the conference is facing rough waters.
7. The Big XII appears to be better than we thought. - We knew Oklahoma would be good, but Oklahoma State and West Virginia might be up there as well. Texas bounced back well against an USC team that might not be good at all and after that it starts to get a little shaky. Kansas State is starting to show signs of life and Iowa State still looks poised to pull an upset or three. Baylor looks hopeless but we now live in a world where the Kansas Jayhawks are on a 2-game winning streak. TCU's reputation did take a pretty good hit however, although they did compete against the Urban Meyer-less Buckeyes.
8. What to make of Notre Dame? - They're 3-0, but they haven't looked like world beaters in two of the three games. Oddly enough, the one game where they did look impressive was against what is, on paper, the best team they played. Their next three games are a step up in competition, as they travel to Wake Forest before hosting a tough Stanford team and then traveling to Blacksburg to face a resurgent Virginia Tech squad. We're going to know exactly who they are after those three games.
9. Stanford might be the best team in the PAC-XII. - And it could not be all that close. We'll find out for sure over the next two weeks when they have tough back-to-back road tests against Oregon and Notre Dame. IF the Cardinal get through that the rest of the schedule is suddenly looking a LOT easier, and a possible path opens up to the CFP. Of course, the November game in Washington will be key. Still a long way to go.
10. The Desert Rug-Rats have taken care of business. - UNLV is now sitting at 2-1 and are looking at the toughest part of their schedule in the upcoming weeks, facing Arkansas State on the road, New Mexico at home, Utah State on the road and then Air Force comes to town. If the Rug Rats can go 2-2 in these games a bowl game berth will look very likely. Any better and it should almost be a certainty, and worse and it's an uphill climb.
And Finally.....
11. The CFP continues to ruin college football. - Outside of College GameDay on ESPN, there is no quality college football analysis on TV. Fox has spit the bit, relying on Clay Travis too much while CBS continues to fumble around in SEC land, NBC is a non-entity and much of what you read online is more focused on silliness, or too overly reliant on the CFP to provide much insight. It won't happen because of TV deals, but I really believe college football would be better off if the CFP was scrapped and we returned to the old bowl system. Including a return to the primacy of New Year's Day games. Free College Football!!
Thursday, September 13, 2018
College Football: The Week 3 FIVE
After last week's push (2-2-1) we're now at 4-5-1 for the season. Again I had issues remembering to do the CappedIn thing (I'll get it this week, I promise) so let's just get straight to the games.
1. North Texas @ Arkansas (-7) [69]
Pick: North Texas to COVER +7
There's always a little SEC bias when they play smaller schools, but Arkansas start was not the best and North Texas is actually GOOD this year. I wouldn't be entirely surprised to see the outright upset, but I'll settle for the cover.
2. UTSA @ Kansas State (-21.5) [46.5]
Pick: UTSA to COVER +21.5
This is neither last year's UTSA team (which would have had a chance at upsetting this year's Wildcat team) nor is it last year's K-State team. I'm unsure if the Wildcats can score more than 21 points in a game this year much less win by that amount.
3. Florida State (-3) @ Syracuse [68.5]
Pick: Syracuse to win on the M/L
Florida State has, so far, shown me nothing to indicate they're ready to win a game against a Syracuse team that's been scoring points in bunches on the road. The 'Noles are in a rebuilding phase which I'm thinking ol' Jimbo saw coming.
4. Boise State @ Oklahoma State (-2.5) [64.5]
Pick: Boise State to win on the M/L
After seeing what Boise did to UConn last week (#MurderSmurf) and watching OSU's fits and starts this season I think Boise comes out of this with a win. I'm just not sold on the Cowboys right now. This is a GOOD Boise State team that can play a lot of defense and is going to give the Cowboys fits. Stillwater is not the easiest place to play, and Boise State has not traditionally been as good on the road, but I still like the Broncos here.
5. Houston (-1) @ Texas Tech [69.5]
Pick: Houston to cover -1
When this line opened at -2 for Tech I couldn't believe it. My original pick was Houston to win on the ML, but between then and publication time the line has flipped. I'm still on Houston because Texas Tech plays zero defense and Houston showed last week against Arizona that they can handle a pass-happy team. Houston is going to be the bigger, stronger, faster team in Lubbock and I think they surprise some people in this game. Tech is going to have no answer for Ed Oliver and company, none whatsoever.
Other Games of Note:
Duke @ Baylor (-6) [49] - Don't be overly surprised to see another upset by a road team in this game. Baylor is still rebuilding and this is the best team David Cutcliffe has had at Duke in a while.
Arkansas State (-1.5) @ Tulsa [72] - IMO Tulsa is getting too much praise for keeping it close against what seems to not be a very good Texas team. Arkansas State is probably one of the best teams in the Sun Belt but the American is a higher conference. That said, I think they roll here.
Alabama (-21) @ Ole Miss [71] - Alabama gets it's first test in a true road game that's not neutral site against a team trying to figure it out. I think they win, and I think it's by more than 21, but I think Ole Miss will score some points.
Western Kentucky @ Louisville (-23) [57] - How bad is Western Kentucky really? I think we're going to find out here. Because if they can't cover against this Louisville team it's going to be a long, long season.
Ohio State (-13.5) @ TCU [59.5] - This is it for the Horned Frogs, the big game at home that they've wanted for a while. Be careful what you wish for however because you just might get it in the form of a supremely talented Buckeyes squad. This is the last game of Urban Meyer's suspension, will his being out alter the outcome? I'm not sure.
USC @ Texas (-3.5) [48] - This is a game that I gave serious consideration for inclusion in the five. But that would have meant 4 road dogs on the money line and I'm not feeling up to that this week. Three is enough.
Washington (-6.5) @ Utah [47]- Utah is coming of a close win over Northern Illinois while Washington has righted the ship since the close loss to Auburn. Can the Utes pull the upset? I think they're going to need a perfect game to just cover.
Fresno State (-1.5) @ UCLA [50] - Here's another case in which the line has flipped. UCLA opened as a -1 favorite, but now the movement is toward Fresno State. I hope you were able to grab this line early as I think the Bulldogs have a legitimate chance of getting the road win.
Arizona State (-5) 2 SDSU [45.5] - I like the Sun Devils here big. San Diego State is still struggling to replace all of the offensive production they lost from last year and whatever Herm Edwards is selling to ASU it's working early.
Games in which I have a rooting interest:
Prairie View vs. UNLV (no line) - If the Rebels want to find themselves bowling at the end of the year then they can't mess around with this game. They should handle Prairie View at the Big Roulette Wheel with ease. Anything else and Vegas has an issue.
SMU @ Michigan (-35.5) [53.5] - The Wolverines SHOULD have no problem with Sonny Dyke's Mustangs. If they do struggle then uh-oh. But I think last weekend was a confidence booster and we should get the best from the Wolverines here. 56-3 ish would be ideal.
Enjoy the games.
1. North Texas @ Arkansas (-7) [69]
Pick: North Texas to COVER +7
There's always a little SEC bias when they play smaller schools, but Arkansas start was not the best and North Texas is actually GOOD this year. I wouldn't be entirely surprised to see the outright upset, but I'll settle for the cover.
2. UTSA @ Kansas State (-21.5) [46.5]
Pick: UTSA to COVER +21.5
This is neither last year's UTSA team (which would have had a chance at upsetting this year's Wildcat team) nor is it last year's K-State team. I'm unsure if the Wildcats can score more than 21 points in a game this year much less win by that amount.
3. Florida State (-3) @ Syracuse [68.5]
Pick: Syracuse to win on the M/L
Florida State has, so far, shown me nothing to indicate they're ready to win a game against a Syracuse team that's been scoring points in bunches on the road. The 'Noles are in a rebuilding phase which I'm thinking ol' Jimbo saw coming.
4. Boise State @ Oklahoma State (-2.5) [64.5]
Pick: Boise State to win on the M/L
After seeing what Boise did to UConn last week (#MurderSmurf) and watching OSU's fits and starts this season I think Boise comes out of this with a win. I'm just not sold on the Cowboys right now. This is a GOOD Boise State team that can play a lot of defense and is going to give the Cowboys fits. Stillwater is not the easiest place to play, and Boise State has not traditionally been as good on the road, but I still like the Broncos here.
5. Houston (-1) @ Texas Tech [69.5]
Pick: Houston to cover -1
When this line opened at -2 for Tech I couldn't believe it. My original pick was Houston to win on the ML, but between then and publication time the line has flipped. I'm still on Houston because Texas Tech plays zero defense and Houston showed last week against Arizona that they can handle a pass-happy team. Houston is going to be the bigger, stronger, faster team in Lubbock and I think they surprise some people in this game. Tech is going to have no answer for Ed Oliver and company, none whatsoever.
Other Games of Note:
Duke @ Baylor (-6) [49] - Don't be overly surprised to see another upset by a road team in this game. Baylor is still rebuilding and this is the best team David Cutcliffe has had at Duke in a while.
Arkansas State (-1.5) @ Tulsa [72] - IMO Tulsa is getting too much praise for keeping it close against what seems to not be a very good Texas team. Arkansas State is probably one of the best teams in the Sun Belt but the American is a higher conference. That said, I think they roll here.
Alabama (-21) @ Ole Miss [71] - Alabama gets it's first test in a true road game that's not neutral site against a team trying to figure it out. I think they win, and I think it's by more than 21, but I think Ole Miss will score some points.
Western Kentucky @ Louisville (-23) [57] - How bad is Western Kentucky really? I think we're going to find out here. Because if they can't cover against this Louisville team it's going to be a long, long season.
Ohio State (-13.5) @ TCU [59.5] - This is it for the Horned Frogs, the big game at home that they've wanted for a while. Be careful what you wish for however because you just might get it in the form of a supremely talented Buckeyes squad. This is the last game of Urban Meyer's suspension, will his being out alter the outcome? I'm not sure.
USC @ Texas (-3.5) [48] - This is a game that I gave serious consideration for inclusion in the five. But that would have meant 4 road dogs on the money line and I'm not feeling up to that this week. Three is enough.
Washington (-6.5) @ Utah [47]- Utah is coming of a close win over Northern Illinois while Washington has righted the ship since the close loss to Auburn. Can the Utes pull the upset? I think they're going to need a perfect game to just cover.
Fresno State (-1.5) @ UCLA [50] - Here's another case in which the line has flipped. UCLA opened as a -1 favorite, but now the movement is toward Fresno State. I hope you were able to grab this line early as I think the Bulldogs have a legitimate chance of getting the road win.
Arizona State (-5) 2 SDSU [45.5] - I like the Sun Devils here big. San Diego State is still struggling to replace all of the offensive production they lost from last year and whatever Herm Edwards is selling to ASU it's working early.
Games in which I have a rooting interest:
Prairie View vs. UNLV (no line) - If the Rebels want to find themselves bowling at the end of the year then they can't mess around with this game. They should handle Prairie View at the Big Roulette Wheel with ease. Anything else and Vegas has an issue.
SMU @ Michigan (-35.5) [53.5] - The Wolverines SHOULD have no problem with Sonny Dyke's Mustangs. If they do struggle then uh-oh. But I think last weekend was a confidence booster and we should get the best from the Wolverines here. 56-3 ish would be ideal.
Enjoy the games.
Wednesday, September 12, 2018
NFL: 3 and Out - Week 2
After starting the season off strong (OK, 2-1 darn you Falcons) here at the Public Money we're tempted to have a typical week one over reaction, declare the season a winner, and shut it down for Champagne and oysters.
But that's not the way the world works. We have 16 weeks left to go and strong starts are not indicative of winning seasons. You have to put in the work.
So, here we go:
1. Baltimore @ Cincinnati (-1) [44].
Pick: Baltimore to win on the M/L.
Maybe we caught this line at a vulnerable moment, or maybe it's just that in this rivalry, the home team is often favored, but we like where we're sitting against a Bengals team that pulled a win out of the jaws of defeat in the first week. Granted, Baltimore is not playing Buffalo this week, the Bengals have some talent and a competent coaching staff, but they should do well enough to pull out an important win on the road and walk out of Cincy 2-0. Baltimore is better at almost every position and, while it's close, Flacco > Dalton.
2. Kansas City @ Pittsburgh (-4.5) [52.5]
Pick: Kansas City to Cover +4.5
It's a little bit early in the season to be predicting the Andy Reid swoon. In game two his offense should be fresh enough, he should still be calling aggressive plays and there's still not enough film for defenses to figure out what he's going to do. Pittsburgh is a tough place to play, and the Steelers are still pretty good despite tying Cleveland last weekend. I think this is a close game, field goal difference either way. Don't be surprised though if Kansas City pulls the upset here.
3. NY Giants @ Dallas (-3) [42]
Pick: New York to win on the ML.
Saquon Barkley looked every much the real deal last Sunday and there's every sign that Odell Beckham is fully back. The anchor for New York on offense is Eli Manning, but even he won't be able to mess things up against a Dallas team that has legitimate offensive issues that are, rightly or wrongly, being laid on the shoulders of head coach Jason Garrett (who probably won't see the end of the season in his current position.) Dallas is going to struggle this year against teams with a good defense, and the Giants have a decent one.
Yes, I realize that I'm picking two road upsets this week but.....Don't Panic.
The game in which I have a rooting interest:
Detroit @ San Francisco (-1) [47]
If you think this is a trap line, you'd be correct. I feel that the public is going to hammer the 49ers so you might want to get in on this early, before it starts drifting up on Sunday. While Detroit looked impossible on Monday I've a feeling their defense especially is going to start to figure things out in week 2. The Niners have issues at running back and are a very one-handed offensive unit right now so they'll be easier to defend. Offensively I cannot see a scenario where Matthew Stafford throws 4 INTs against a San Fran defensive backfield that's slightly below average. The 49ers are going to need Jimmy G to come up big and I think he will. But I don't see San Fran winning this by much more than a field goal.
But that's not the way the world works. We have 16 weeks left to go and strong starts are not indicative of winning seasons. You have to put in the work.
So, here we go:
1. Baltimore @ Cincinnati (-1) [44].
Pick: Baltimore to win on the M/L.
Maybe we caught this line at a vulnerable moment, or maybe it's just that in this rivalry, the home team is often favored, but we like where we're sitting against a Bengals team that pulled a win out of the jaws of defeat in the first week. Granted, Baltimore is not playing Buffalo this week, the Bengals have some talent and a competent coaching staff, but they should do well enough to pull out an important win on the road and walk out of Cincy 2-0. Baltimore is better at almost every position and, while it's close, Flacco > Dalton.
2. Kansas City @ Pittsburgh (-4.5) [52.5]
Pick: Kansas City to Cover +4.5
It's a little bit early in the season to be predicting the Andy Reid swoon. In game two his offense should be fresh enough, he should still be calling aggressive plays and there's still not enough film for defenses to figure out what he's going to do. Pittsburgh is a tough place to play, and the Steelers are still pretty good despite tying Cleveland last weekend. I think this is a close game, field goal difference either way. Don't be surprised though if Kansas City pulls the upset here.
3. NY Giants @ Dallas (-3) [42]
Pick: New York to win on the ML.
Saquon Barkley looked every much the real deal last Sunday and there's every sign that Odell Beckham is fully back. The anchor for New York on offense is Eli Manning, but even he won't be able to mess things up against a Dallas team that has legitimate offensive issues that are, rightly or wrongly, being laid on the shoulders of head coach Jason Garrett (who probably won't see the end of the season in his current position.) Dallas is going to struggle this year against teams with a good defense, and the Giants have a decent one.
Yes, I realize that I'm picking two road upsets this week but.....Don't Panic.
The game in which I have a rooting interest:
Detroit @ San Francisco (-1) [47]
If you think this is a trap line, you'd be correct. I feel that the public is going to hammer the 49ers so you might want to get in on this early, before it starts drifting up on Sunday. While Detroit looked impossible on Monday I've a feeling their defense especially is going to start to figure things out in week 2. The Niners have issues at running back and are a very one-handed offensive unit right now so they'll be easier to defend. Offensively I cannot see a scenario where Matthew Stafford throws 4 INTs against a San Fran defensive backfield that's slightly below average. The 49ers are going to need Jimmy G to come up big and I think he will. But I don't see San Fran winning this by much more than a field goal.
Tuesday, September 11, 2018
NFL Football: Don't Panic.
Now that week one of the NFL is in the books it's time to take a look back.
First, how did we do in our inaugural 3 and Out?
Answer: 2-1 with wins from Baltimore and the Rams and with the Falcons providing our sole loss.
Not too shabby. We'll look ahead to some stuff on week 2 tomorrow.
Second, which teams are in "Panic Mode" after week 1? Here are some possible contenders:
1. The Raiders. - I get it. You came in full of hope and Gruden, you thought that bringing in a coach from the television booth was going to revive the mystique of the Black Hole. Then you watched him trade away pretty much your only asset on defense, watched him fill the roster with a grab bag of long-in-the-tooth players and then you had to watch as your star quarterback imploded against the Rams, at home en route to a 33-13 shellacking.
Don't Panic.
A couple of things to remember:
1. Gruden IS a new coach for you, and it always takes time when you're breaking in a new coach and a new system for things to smooth out. Carr is still thinking, not reacting to the new offense, your defense needs time to gel. You have some tools on offense to work with, including Marshawn Lynch and Carr.
2. Mack is gone. Soon your team will be too. Then you can go find a new team to support, one that is probably better, has more competent ownership and doesn't hire coaches who trade away your best player because, rumor has it, you're having cash-flow issues and putting $90 Million in escrow is a huge ask.
2. The Lions. - It wasn't too long ago that the Lions were 0-16 and everyone was feeling sorry for the little engine that could, Orlovsky was running out of the back of the end-zone and Barry Sanders wouldn't be caught dead even visiting the stadium. But things were going to be different. You hired a Belicheck assistant who was going to make you into Patriots MidWest. Players were running laps after committing penalties, and you still had Matt Stafford. But last night Stafford imploded (4 INTs) and the defense was porous.
Don't Panic.
A couple of things to remember:
1. There is some talent here. Karryon Johnson showed flashes of being a quality running back who can turn your rushing woes around and the receiving corps is talented. Stafford is a quality quarterback who had a very bad night, and probably won't play that poorly in games going forward.
2. Patricia IS a new coach, and he's transitioning from being a defensive coordinator whose defense got handled in the Super Bowl to a head coach whose defense.....got handled in your first game against a rookie quarterback and a team that was not good last year. Ansah is hurt, but he's probably not gone for the year. It's highly unlikely that you go 0-16 this year but, if you do, you can stop being distracted by sports and start paying attention to the den of thieves that are running your State into the ground.
3. The Texans. - Hey, so you went to New England and took a loss, your young star QB played a stinker of a game and your vaunted defensive line was pretty much non-existent in the 1st half. It's pretty clear that the offensive line is a sieve and your linebacker play is questionable at best. You lost 27-20 in a game that wasn't as close as it seemed on paper.
Don't Panic.
A couple of things to remember:
1. You probably won't play a tougher road game than this all year. And you don't have to face Brady and Belicheck again so it's unlikely your head coach is going to look this outclassed going forward. In the 2nd half there were signs of life from the defense, who started getting pressure on Brady and did some good things. Outside of Kevin Johnson you escaped the game pretty much injury free and Watson now knows that he needs to take 2 5-hour energy shots prior to every game.
2. You still have Bill O'Brien standing at the head coaching wheel. Yes, he's often overmatched and his in-game decision making is poor but he gets sufficiently angry at the media in post-game press conferences that you'll at least be distracted from the fact that your team didn't play all that well. Plus, when you're fighting to finish either 8-8 or 9-7 AGAIN, you'll probably have an Astros team making a deep playoff run to keep you entertained.
4. The Bills. - Let's be honest, we all knew you were in trouble when the head coaching staff rolled out Nate Peterman to be your starting QB. You've got a head coach who needs to "watch the film" to determine whether or not he's going to be your starter and your rookie back-up is (How does one put this delicately?) Not good. Your defense is a sieve, and it's unclear that you have any talent waiting in the wings to prop it up. Your player evaluation/development program is lacking and your running back is one lower-body injury away from missing the season. You're under-staffed at almost every level of the offense and defense and you have a coaching staff that is seemingly clueless on how to turn it around.
Do.......OK, never mind, Panic.
The Bills are hopeless.
Still, here a couple of things:
1. IF, and more likely, when you get the first pick in next year's NFL draft you've got the chance to draft Houston's Ed Oliver, a difference maker who will instantly make your defense better which will take pressure off of your offense which will allow Josh Allen to become a "game manager" who just needs to hand the ball off to the new running backs you're going to acquire in the off-season.
2. It's probable that your seemingly incompetent head coach gets fired later this year so you'll be able to move forward with someone who's probably going to be an upgrade.
For everyone else? It's just week one. In the words of the great Aaron Rodgers: R-E-L-A-X.
First, how did we do in our inaugural 3 and Out?
Answer: 2-1 with wins from Baltimore and the Rams and with the Falcons providing our sole loss.
Not too shabby. We'll look ahead to some stuff on week 2 tomorrow.
Second, which teams are in "Panic Mode" after week 1? Here are some possible contenders:
1. The Raiders. - I get it. You came in full of hope and Gruden, you thought that bringing in a coach from the television booth was going to revive the mystique of the Black Hole. Then you watched him trade away pretty much your only asset on defense, watched him fill the roster with a grab bag of long-in-the-tooth players and then you had to watch as your star quarterback imploded against the Rams, at home en route to a 33-13 shellacking.
Don't Panic.
A couple of things to remember:
1. Gruden IS a new coach for you, and it always takes time when you're breaking in a new coach and a new system for things to smooth out. Carr is still thinking, not reacting to the new offense, your defense needs time to gel. You have some tools on offense to work with, including Marshawn Lynch and Carr.
2. Mack is gone. Soon your team will be too. Then you can go find a new team to support, one that is probably better, has more competent ownership and doesn't hire coaches who trade away your best player because, rumor has it, you're having cash-flow issues and putting $90 Million in escrow is a huge ask.
2. The Lions. - It wasn't too long ago that the Lions were 0-16 and everyone was feeling sorry for the little engine that could, Orlovsky was running out of the back of the end-zone and Barry Sanders wouldn't be caught dead even visiting the stadium. But things were going to be different. You hired a Belicheck assistant who was going to make you into Patriots MidWest. Players were running laps after committing penalties, and you still had Matt Stafford. But last night Stafford imploded (4 INTs) and the defense was porous.
Don't Panic.
A couple of things to remember:
1. There is some talent here. Karryon Johnson showed flashes of being a quality running back who can turn your rushing woes around and the receiving corps is talented. Stafford is a quality quarterback who had a very bad night, and probably won't play that poorly in games going forward.
2. Patricia IS a new coach, and he's transitioning from being a defensive coordinator whose defense got handled in the Super Bowl to a head coach whose defense.....got handled in your first game against a rookie quarterback and a team that was not good last year. Ansah is hurt, but he's probably not gone for the year. It's highly unlikely that you go 0-16 this year but, if you do, you can stop being distracted by sports and start paying attention to the den of thieves that are running your State into the ground.
3. The Texans. - Hey, so you went to New England and took a loss, your young star QB played a stinker of a game and your vaunted defensive line was pretty much non-existent in the 1st half. It's pretty clear that the offensive line is a sieve and your linebacker play is questionable at best. You lost 27-20 in a game that wasn't as close as it seemed on paper.
Don't Panic.
A couple of things to remember:
1. You probably won't play a tougher road game than this all year. And you don't have to face Brady and Belicheck again so it's unlikely your head coach is going to look this outclassed going forward. In the 2nd half there were signs of life from the defense, who started getting pressure on Brady and did some good things. Outside of Kevin Johnson you escaped the game pretty much injury free and Watson now knows that he needs to take 2 5-hour energy shots prior to every game.
2. You still have Bill O'Brien standing at the head coaching wheel. Yes, he's often overmatched and his in-game decision making is poor but he gets sufficiently angry at the media in post-game press conferences that you'll at least be distracted from the fact that your team didn't play all that well. Plus, when you're fighting to finish either 8-8 or 9-7 AGAIN, you'll probably have an Astros team making a deep playoff run to keep you entertained.
4. The Bills. - Let's be honest, we all knew you were in trouble when the head coaching staff rolled out Nate Peterman to be your starting QB. You've got a head coach who needs to "watch the film" to determine whether or not he's going to be your starter and your rookie back-up is (How does one put this delicately?) Not good. Your defense is a sieve, and it's unclear that you have any talent waiting in the wings to prop it up. Your player evaluation/development program is lacking and your running back is one lower-body injury away from missing the season. You're under-staffed at almost every level of the offense and defense and you have a coaching staff that is seemingly clueless on how to turn it around.
Do.......OK, never mind, Panic.
The Bills are hopeless.
Still, here a couple of things:
1. IF, and more likely, when you get the first pick in next year's NFL draft you've got the chance to draft Houston's Ed Oliver, a difference maker who will instantly make your defense better which will take pressure off of your offense which will allow Josh Allen to become a "game manager" who just needs to hand the ball off to the new running backs you're going to acquire in the off-season.
2. It's probable that your seemingly incompetent head coach gets fired later this year so you'll be able to move forward with someone who's probably going to be an upgrade.
For everyone else? It's just week one. In the words of the great Aaron Rodgers: R-E-L-A-X.
Monday, September 10, 2018
An Open Letter to the NFL. Let's end this Monday Night Double-Header Monstrosity
Dear (The) Shield,
Congratulations on what was a fun opening Sunday. I realize that you're not used to hearing that from me, in fact, I'm probably one of the most critical writers when it comes to your product, but you knocked it out of the park on Sunday.
Granted, there are still some things you need to work on, roughing the passer and too many field goals among them, but for the most part the games were fun, the pace was excellent and a general good time was had by all. (Except Bills fans, who might not have a good time for the rest of the year)
Now we roll into Monday and many of us face a problem. To whit, we're going to have to miss a significant portion of at least one of the games. The reason for this is simple: You continue to allow ESPN to try and shoe-horn two games into a one-game window, a practice that needs to come to an end.
If you live on the West Coast the reality is that the game is going to kick-off for you at 4:10 PM, a time that most productive people are at work. If you live on the East Coast the reality is that the second game is not going to finish until after Midnight, possibly WELL after Midnight, an untenable situation if you're a productive person and have a job to get to the next day. This scheduling is unworkable for a vast majority of the American public, you know, those people who watch your games and buy products from the advertisers that you rely on?
I understand that ESPN is paying you a lot of money to allow them to take two games away from the fans and put it on their airwaves at odd times. I realize that, under Commissioner Roger Goodell's watch team profitability is soaring. I get that, I really do. Right now the money is coming in so fast Jerry Jones barely has time to count it before running out of the stadium to avoid the press.
Everyone is happy under the Shield, rich and getting richer. The dip that you have in television viewership is because of cord-cutting and NOT because your product on the field has been bad. Understood.
But the start/finish times for Monday Night Football during Week 1 is a travesty that must be addressed.
Thursday games are bad enough. You wouldn't have thought about this had the colleges not started making a ton of cash on Thursday nights and you just had to get your piece. Forget about player safety and all of those things you claim in public, there are TV dollars to be made.
But what you've been doing, and continue to do, by moving the focus away from Sunday is diluting your product, and your brand. Thursday night games are horrid spectacles of tired, often injured players, going through the motions and ratings have borne this out. Even though you know you should, you can't be seen as retreating from Thursdays, from admitting that they should be for the college game.
But Monday's are a different story. Monday Night Football USED to be must-see TV. You diluted that with the Sunday night game but it doesn't have to be. You can have your cake and eat it to by giving up on Thursday, returning Monday to some primacy and helping us out by scheduling ONE game that we all want to watch.
Two games on Monday is one too many. It doesn't fit. It's like a fast-food burger in a Gordon Ramsey restaurant, it's a turd on a plate. It's trying to fit a five-course-dinner into an hour, and people are increasingly leaving the dish half-eaten.
Even living in the Central time-zone, as I do, this schedule is problematic. In many ways we get the worst of both worlds. For one, most of us won't be home from work at 5:10PM when the game kicks off and we'll have to go to bed before the 2nd game ends (probably after Midnight even here) usually at halftime. Now, I realize that you don't put much stock into the viewing habits of flyover country. Hell, if you could get away with it you wouldn't even come here. But Jerry Jones is loud, brash and tends to make a mess of things so you come to Dallas occasionally, you just never leave the security of the luxury box, the chauffeured SUV or your private jet when doing so.
As fans we understand that you don't want to interact with us but at least give us the courtesy of acknowledging our fandom. Give us the basic decency of putting games on TV at times we can watch. Among the exorbitant ticket prices, $15 beers, $10 hot dogs and $350 "authentic" jerseys at least give us the option to watch the games without having to call in sick to work the next day.
You get this for the Super Bowl, I'm curious why you don't get it in the first week of the season?
Do the right thing NFL, go to ESPN and renegotiate this mess. Make the fans happy for a change.
Sincerely,
All of us.
Congratulations on what was a fun opening Sunday. I realize that you're not used to hearing that from me, in fact, I'm probably one of the most critical writers when it comes to your product, but you knocked it out of the park on Sunday.
Granted, there are still some things you need to work on, roughing the passer and too many field goals among them, but for the most part the games were fun, the pace was excellent and a general good time was had by all. (Except Bills fans, who might not have a good time for the rest of the year)
Now we roll into Monday and many of us face a problem. To whit, we're going to have to miss a significant portion of at least one of the games. The reason for this is simple: You continue to allow ESPN to try and shoe-horn two games into a one-game window, a practice that needs to come to an end.
If you live on the West Coast the reality is that the game is going to kick-off for you at 4:10 PM, a time that most productive people are at work. If you live on the East Coast the reality is that the second game is not going to finish until after Midnight, possibly WELL after Midnight, an untenable situation if you're a productive person and have a job to get to the next day. This scheduling is unworkable for a vast majority of the American public, you know, those people who watch your games and buy products from the advertisers that you rely on?
I understand that ESPN is paying you a lot of money to allow them to take two games away from the fans and put it on their airwaves at odd times. I realize that, under Commissioner Roger Goodell's watch team profitability is soaring. I get that, I really do. Right now the money is coming in so fast Jerry Jones barely has time to count it before running out of the stadium to avoid the press.
Everyone is happy under the Shield, rich and getting richer. The dip that you have in television viewership is because of cord-cutting and NOT because your product on the field has been bad. Understood.
But the start/finish times for Monday Night Football during Week 1 is a travesty that must be addressed.
Thursday games are bad enough. You wouldn't have thought about this had the colleges not started making a ton of cash on Thursday nights and you just had to get your piece. Forget about player safety and all of those things you claim in public, there are TV dollars to be made.
But what you've been doing, and continue to do, by moving the focus away from Sunday is diluting your product, and your brand. Thursday night games are horrid spectacles of tired, often injured players, going through the motions and ratings have borne this out. Even though you know you should, you can't be seen as retreating from Thursdays, from admitting that they should be for the college game.
But Monday's are a different story. Monday Night Football USED to be must-see TV. You diluted that with the Sunday night game but it doesn't have to be. You can have your cake and eat it to by giving up on Thursday, returning Monday to some primacy and helping us out by scheduling ONE game that we all want to watch.
Two games on Monday is one too many. It doesn't fit. It's like a fast-food burger in a Gordon Ramsey restaurant, it's a turd on a plate. It's trying to fit a five-course-dinner into an hour, and people are increasingly leaving the dish half-eaten.
Even living in the Central time-zone, as I do, this schedule is problematic. In many ways we get the worst of both worlds. For one, most of us won't be home from work at 5:10PM when the game kicks off and we'll have to go to bed before the 2nd game ends (probably after Midnight even here) usually at halftime. Now, I realize that you don't put much stock into the viewing habits of flyover country. Hell, if you could get away with it you wouldn't even come here. But Jerry Jones is loud, brash and tends to make a mess of things so you come to Dallas occasionally, you just never leave the security of the luxury box, the chauffeured SUV or your private jet when doing so.
As fans we understand that you don't want to interact with us but at least give us the courtesy of acknowledging our fandom. Give us the basic decency of putting games on TV at times we can watch. Among the exorbitant ticket prices, $15 beers, $10 hot dogs and $350 "authentic" jerseys at least give us the option to watch the games without having to call in sick to work the next day.
You get this for the Super Bowl, I'm curious why you don't get it in the first week of the season?
Do the right thing NFL, go to ESPN and renegotiate this mess. Make the fans happy for a change.
Sincerely,
All of us.
NFL Week 1: An exciting Sunday, for a change.
Traditionally, NFL Sundays, for me, have been about getting around and doing several of the things I should have done on Saturday but which got brushed aside by college football. Plans on the first Sunday of the NFL season were cancelled on account of rain in Houston, so I actually got to watch more football than I had originally planned.
Pick: LA Rams to cover -4
After the Khalil Mack trade, the Martavius Bryant cut, and the trade for AJ McCarron the Raiders are a team in turmoil. They also have the oldest roster in the NFL. The Rams have tons of youth, talent and speed and should put everyone in the Black hole in a dark mood. This Gruden experiment is going to end in Raider tears. This is a pick from my 3 and out, which I'm reproducing here.
Like most of Houston, I was dreading getting stuck watching the Texans lose (again) to the Patriots, but as a U-Verse customer I get NFL Red Zone which is a sanity keeper. With that in mind, here are some thoughts on what we saw yesterday and last night:
Bengals 34 Colts 23. - Andrew Luck being back is not going to salvage the Colts season. This team might have one of the worst top-to-bottom rosters in the league outside of QB and WR. The Bengals might not make the playoffs, but they're going to play well enough to (probably) keep the notoriously tight ownership group from blowing up the team at the end of the season.
Bills 3 Ravens 47 - How do I put this? Let's just rip off the band-aid. The Bills are AWFUL. This year they only exist to assure fans of other teams that they don't have the worst team in the league. Starting Nate Peterman should be a fireable offense, and saying you need to "look at the film" before determining that he's bad even more so.
Buccaneers 48 Saints 40 - Hands down the game of the day. Congratulations to Ryan Fitzpatrick who played the game of his life and led the Bucs to an unexpected DIVISION GAME upset of the heavily favored (-10) Saints. This was the most lop-sided line of the weekend, and the Bucs won on the money line. Remember in the pre-season when we were told the Saints defense was going to be good? That's in doubt now.
Texans 20 Patriots 27 - As a Houston resident I'm only going to make 2 points: 1. This Texans roster is not NEAR as talented as the local media has made it out to be. 2. Bill O'Brien is not a head coach. His statement after the game that it was "not his job" to call a timeout after the Gronk catch that wasn't a catch is ridiculous and should be a fireable offense. The thing is, I'm not sure how good the Patriots are after this game. They ran into a team that was playing not to lose and gave them a chance to have a chance at the end of the game, a chance they flubbed away.
Titans 20 Dolphins 27 - After over 7 hours (including 2 lightning delays of over 2 hours each) the Dolphins escaped with a win, and the Titans left town with an injured QB (Elbow) and doubt about the head coach they just hired despite his having no prior coaching success at any level. It's probable that Tennessee is in for a LONG year.
Jaguars 20 NY Giants 15 - I cannot tell you how happy I am the Jaguars pulled this out. Because if the Giants would have won the sports media would have been in a rapturous fog all week and we would have been inundated with hot takes putting them in the Super Bowl. I still think the Jaguars are the best team in the AFC South by default, I also think the Giants might have a shot in a suddenly questionable NFC East.
Steelers 21 Browns 21 - Never before has a tie invigorated so many. Not only did the Browns not lose a game for the first time since the 2016 season, but they actually, at times, looked like an honest to God football team. The person who was the biggest loser here was holdout running back Le'Veon Bell. Not only did his backup Conner have a solid game, but the problems with the Steelers were not because he was missing.
Chiefs 38 Chargers 28 - Last year the Kansas City Chiefs started off the season shellacking projected Super Bowl contender New England with a combination of creative (college like) play-calling and a ton of aggressiveness and speed. This year the Kansas City Chiefs started off the season shellacking projected Super Bowl contender Los Angeles (Chargers) with a combination of creative (college like) play-calling and a ton of aggressiveness and speed. The question remains though: How is Andy Reid going to mess this up. Also, the Chargers receivers need to hit the Juggs machine immediately. Phillip Rivers deserved better than the drop-fest he faced on Sunday.
Cowboys 8 Panthers 16 - Jason Garrett is getting fired either during, or after, this season. The Cowboys offense is a hot mess with no solutions for stretching the field and little to take the pressure off of Zeke Elliot. Their defense played OK, but Cam Newton and the Panther's offense did just enough to win. Sad thought: Next week's Sunday Night game is (of course) the Giants vs. the Cowboys. Must miss TV.
Washington 24 Cardinals 6 - Alex Smith is still good, the Cardinals are pretty bad. Also, Adrian Peterson had a good game and the Washington season will go as his health holds up. Larry Fitzgerald deserves better than a team that can't seem to get out of it's own way. Arizona fans booed the head coach and QB Sam Bradford in yesterday's season opener. The Cardinals and the Bills might be worth watching this year just to see who out-sucks who in the Ed Oliver sweepstakes.
Seahawks 24 Broncos 27 - This was a game of "Meh". Both teams played OK, but neither team looked like a world beater. Broncos new QB Case Keenum did throw 3 touchdowns, but also 3 INTs to go with them. the Seahawks are such a program in decline that the Legion of Boom is now the Legion of "Meh". Russell Wilson is still good and showed flashes, and Von Miller can totally dominate a game. But both of these teams have gaping holes in their rosters that offset most the good.
Bears 23 Packers 24 - Let's take just a minute and appreciate the greatness that is Aaron Rodgers. What he did last night was improbable. The Packers were down 17-0 at halftime, and then 20-0 in the 3rd quarter before kicking what, at the time, seemed like a sad field goal to bring the score to 20-3. Rodgers went out of the game early with a knee injury, and it looked like all was lost. Even when he came back into the game he was basically a one-legged quarterback, unable to put pressure on the knee, or pivot while throwing the football. It was amazing and wonderful and reminded us all why we enjoy watching this dumb sport. Khalil Mack was other-worldly for the Bears in the fist half, and probably made Raiders fans head to the liquor cabinet thinking about what their dolt front-office traded away. But he's not yet in game-shape which showed in the 2nd half. Right now I'm ready to hang the dreaded "game-manager" tab on Mitchell Trubisky. But this night was about Aaron Rodgers and his magnificence at the quarterback position. Let's just hope that knee is OK going forward.
The game in which I had a rooting interest:
49ers 16 Vikings 24 - The game itself was not as close as the score makes it seem. As I feared, the 49ers were very one-handed on offense and you cannot hope to be that way against a Vikings defense that is the real deal. Quarterback Kirk Cousins was competent, but not spectacular, and Jimmy Garoppolo lost his first football game as a starter. I realize that there was a lot of buzz surrounding my Niners this pre-season, talk of playoffs and great things to come, but I think the roster has too many holes (especially on defense and O-line) to truly make a playoff push this season. IF they draft properly and handle player development correctly I believe that the future is bright. I saw enough flashes from Jimmy G to have hope for the future. That's more than I can say about this team in recent years. The Vikings are legitimate Superbowl contenders in the NFC, but we really need to do something to silence that infernal horn.
Bonus: The two Monday Night Games.
New York Jets @ Detroit (-7) [44.5] - I like Detroit here quite a bit, but not enough to include them in my 3 and out for the week. That said, IF the number stays at 7 (or moves toward the Jets) I'll probably take a stab at it. I also might take a peek at the UNDER in this game although it needs to increase a little for me to feel really confident. I'm planning on watching this game for no other reason than to see Sam Darnold's NFL debut.
LA Rams (-4) @ Oakland [49.5]
Pick: LA Rams to cover -4
After the Khalil Mack trade, the Martavius Bryant cut, and the trade for AJ McCarron the Raiders are a team in turmoil. They also have the oldest roster in the NFL. The Rams have tons of youth, talent and speed and should put everyone in the Black hole in a dark mood. This Gruden experiment is going to end in Raider tears. This is a pick from my 3 and out, which I'm reproducing here.
Tonight is one of the worst nights on the NFL calendar. ESPN continues to try and shoe-horn two games into a one game window. What they ensure is that significant portions of the country miss part of at least one. It's time to end this fiasco and go back to one Monday night game. The NFL shouldn't stand for this.
College Football: After Week 2, They were who we thought they were.
As with last year, the week 2 slate of games didn't look all that promising, but it gave us some fun results regardless.
First, let's recap the FIVE:
"It's a push, I didn't LOSE!!"
'That's it Griswold, you are DEAD!!"
Record for the week: 2-2-1 Total Record (season to date): 4-5-1.
As is normal for me I'm starting off a little slowly, but last week could have been a lot better had I gone with my gut and included the right games. Here's a quick recap with some thoughts:
1. Colorado @ Nebraska (-4) [65]
Pick: Colorado to cover +4
Final Result: Colorado 33 Nebraska 28.
I should have gone with my gut here and taken CU on the money line.
2. Memphis (-4.5) @ Navy [68]
Pick: Memphis to cover -4.5
Final Result: Memphis 21 Navy 22
I had Memphis as the G5 representative in the New Year's Day bowl games. I'm going to have to re-think that after this dog of a performance. It's starting to look like a two-horse race between Boise State and Houston.
3. Iowa State @ Iowa (-4) [47]
Pick: Iowa to cover -4
Final Result: Iowa State 3 Iowa 13
Maybe the most El Assico game ever played. It was dull, uninspiring, and fantastic in every way.
4. Clemson (-12.5) @ Texas A&M [54]
Pick: OVER 54.
Final Result: Clemson 28 Texas A&M 26
For a game that ended right on the number, and for a game that the Aggies slept-walked through most of it, the ending was outstanding.
5. Wyoming @ Missouri (-18) [52]
Pick: Wyoming to COVER +18
Final Result: Wyoming 13 Missouri 40
This is the game that drove a steak in the heart of my belief in Bohls as a coach. Wyoming just flat-out looked bad.
Other Games:
North Carolina (-16) @ ECU [60] - I should have included this game in my FIVE. I leaned ECU but had no faith in them. I should have realized that Larry Fedora's team is BAD,
Michigan State (-6) @ Arizona State [54] - Not going to lie, I thought Sparty was going to wipe the floor with the Sun Devils, but they have talent in the desert this year and coach Edwards is getting something out of them. The Sun Devils should be ranked in the Top 25 after this one.
Arizona @ Houston (-4.5) [71] - The final score on this one (45-18 Cougars) makes it look like Arizona was more competent than they actually were. For a minute, in the second half, they pulled to within 10 points. But then Houston realized the game wasn't over and pulled away at the end. It's fair in Houston to question whether or not Major Applewhite has what it takes to lead this team to victory.
Duke @ Northwestern (-2.5) [48.5] - I thought this game would be more evenly matched than it was. But Duke played outstanding football to escape from Chicago with a 21-7 win and, by the way, a 2-0 record.
Georgia Tech (-3.5) @ South Florida [62.5] - It was a good day for the AAC, as South Florida and Houston both beat Power 5 teams, while Tulsa played UT-Austin tough. This game was bonkers and would have been the game of the day if not for.....
Eastern Michigan @ Purdue (-16) - I only caught the end of this game, to be honest I thought Purdue was going to wipe the floor with them. I will say this. Eastern Michigan deserved to win this game based on their uniforms alone. Those were spectacular.
UCLA @ OU (-30.5) [64] - This just in: OU is still really good. And while I'm not buying into the "Kyler Murray is better than Baker Mayfield" hype (he's not) I think OU's offensive and defensive balance make them one of the better programs in college football. Sucks to hear that Anderson is out for the year however due to a knee injury. That guy is scary good.
Air Force @ FAU (-9) [69.5] - I thought this line was a little high and the results proved it out. Despite that, FAU got a good 33-27 win over a decent Air Force team which should go a long way to wiping clean the memory of the OU debacle and set them up well for the rest of the season.
USC @ Stanford (-5) [57] - After watching parts of this game, I'm still not sold on either team being very good.
California @ BYU (-3) [46.5] - Is it possible that the Cal Bears are....GOOD this year? I'm still not entirely sold on them but this is a good start.
Aside: Hawai'i is 3-0 and it could be a minute before they lose a game. Army next week will be a test. But if they win that the schedule sets up for them nicely.
Games in which I had a rooting interest:
UTEP @ UNLV (-24) [55.5] - Beating UTEP 52-24 is what UNLV, with the talent they have, SHOULD do. It's something this team last year wouldn't have done. But they're maturing as a group and they went in and took care of business against a UTEP team that's all but hopeless right now. UTEP head coach Sonny Dykes has a MESS in front of him and it's going to take a while to dig out of this hole. Remember when we all thought he was getting the Texas Tech job?
Western Michigan @ Michigan (-28) [56.5] - At least they didn't let Notre Dame beat them twice. Michigan looked very good on both offense and defense against admittedly lesser competition. But Shae Patterson played well and the defense played like we wanted them to so that's something. The schedule is still not easy, Northwestern and Nebraska are 2 of the next 4 weeks before a TOUGH game against Wisconsin, but at least the team is showing signs of life.
Next week's schedule reads pretty much the same as the one this week. There are a couple of marquee games (LSU vs. Auburn, Ohio State vs TCU) and the strength of the schedule might be in some of the lower level games. We should find out more about Boise State as they play Oklahoma State and Houston vs. Texas Tech always seems to be fun. Plus, UT-Austin gets USC in Austin. Alabama travels to Ole Miss in what might be an underrated game. But my game of the week is Eastern Michigan @ Buffalo. Both teams are 2-0 with an impressive win each. Miss this one at your peril.
I'll be back on Thursday with the FIVE. Hopefully I pick the right games this time.
First, let's recap the FIVE:
"It's a push, I didn't LOSE!!"
'That's it Griswold, you are DEAD!!"
Record for the week: 2-2-1 Total Record (season to date): 4-5-1.
As is normal for me I'm starting off a little slowly, but last week could have been a lot better had I gone with my gut and included the right games. Here's a quick recap with some thoughts:
1. Colorado @ Nebraska (-4) [65]
Pick: Colorado to cover +4
Final Result: Colorado 33 Nebraska 28.
I should have gone with my gut here and taken CU on the money line.
2. Memphis (-4.5) @ Navy [68]
Pick: Memphis to cover -4.5
Final Result: Memphis 21 Navy 22
I had Memphis as the G5 representative in the New Year's Day bowl games. I'm going to have to re-think that after this dog of a performance. It's starting to look like a two-horse race between Boise State and Houston.
3. Iowa State @ Iowa (-4) [47]
Pick: Iowa to cover -4
Final Result: Iowa State 3 Iowa 13
Maybe the most El Assico game ever played. It was dull, uninspiring, and fantastic in every way.
4. Clemson (-12.5) @ Texas A&M [54]
Pick: OVER 54.
Final Result: Clemson 28 Texas A&M 26
For a game that ended right on the number, and for a game that the Aggies slept-walked through most of it, the ending was outstanding.
5. Wyoming @ Missouri (-18) [52]
Pick: Wyoming to COVER +18
Final Result: Wyoming 13 Missouri 40
This is the game that drove a steak in the heart of my belief in Bohls as a coach. Wyoming just flat-out looked bad.
Other Games:
North Carolina (-16) @ ECU [60] - I should have included this game in my FIVE. I leaned ECU but had no faith in them. I should have realized that Larry Fedora's team is BAD,
Michigan State (-6) @ Arizona State [54] - Not going to lie, I thought Sparty was going to wipe the floor with the Sun Devils, but they have talent in the desert this year and coach Edwards is getting something out of them. The Sun Devils should be ranked in the Top 25 after this one.
Arizona @ Houston (-4.5) [71] - The final score on this one (45-18 Cougars) makes it look like Arizona was more competent than they actually were. For a minute, in the second half, they pulled to within 10 points. But then Houston realized the game wasn't over and pulled away at the end. It's fair in Houston to question whether or not Major Applewhite has what it takes to lead this team to victory.
Duke @ Northwestern (-2.5) [48.5] - I thought this game would be more evenly matched than it was. But Duke played outstanding football to escape from Chicago with a 21-7 win and, by the way, a 2-0 record.
Georgia Tech (-3.5) @ South Florida [62.5] - It was a good day for the AAC, as South Florida and Houston both beat Power 5 teams, while Tulsa played UT-Austin tough. This game was bonkers and would have been the game of the day if not for.....
Eastern Michigan @ Purdue (-16) - I only caught the end of this game, to be honest I thought Purdue was going to wipe the floor with them. I will say this. Eastern Michigan deserved to win this game based on their uniforms alone. Those were spectacular.
UCLA @ OU (-30.5) [64] - This just in: OU is still really good. And while I'm not buying into the "Kyler Murray is better than Baker Mayfield" hype (he's not) I think OU's offensive and defensive balance make them one of the better programs in college football. Sucks to hear that Anderson is out for the year however due to a knee injury. That guy is scary good.
Air Force @ FAU (-9) [69.5] - I thought this line was a little high and the results proved it out. Despite that, FAU got a good 33-27 win over a decent Air Force team which should go a long way to wiping clean the memory of the OU debacle and set them up well for the rest of the season.
USC @ Stanford (-5) [57] - After watching parts of this game, I'm still not sold on either team being very good.
California @ BYU (-3) [46.5] - Is it possible that the Cal Bears are....GOOD this year? I'm still not entirely sold on them but this is a good start.
Aside: Hawai'i is 3-0 and it could be a minute before they lose a game. Army next week will be a test. But if they win that the schedule sets up for them nicely.
Games in which I had a rooting interest:
UTEP @ UNLV (-24) [55.5] - Beating UTEP 52-24 is what UNLV, with the talent they have, SHOULD do. It's something this team last year wouldn't have done. But they're maturing as a group and they went in and took care of business against a UTEP team that's all but hopeless right now. UTEP head coach Sonny Dykes has a MESS in front of him and it's going to take a while to dig out of this hole. Remember when we all thought he was getting the Texas Tech job?
Western Michigan @ Michigan (-28) [56.5] - At least they didn't let Notre Dame beat them twice. Michigan looked very good on both offense and defense against admittedly lesser competition. But Shae Patterson played well and the defense played like we wanted them to so that's something. The schedule is still not easy, Northwestern and Nebraska are 2 of the next 4 weeks before a TOUGH game against Wisconsin, but at least the team is showing signs of life.
Next week's schedule reads pretty much the same as the one this week. There are a couple of marquee games (LSU vs. Auburn, Ohio State vs TCU) and the strength of the schedule might be in some of the lower level games. We should find out more about Boise State as they play Oklahoma State and Houston vs. Texas Tech always seems to be fun. Plus, UT-Austin gets USC in Austin. Alabama travels to Ole Miss in what might be an underrated game. But my game of the week is Eastern Michigan @ Buffalo. Both teams are 2-0 with an impressive win each. Miss this one at your peril.
I'll be back on Thursday with the FIVE. Hopefully I pick the right games this time.
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