As I stated in my last blog post I've decided to shutter this little blog and move on to whatever the next phase in my life is. But before heading out I wanted to make one last post lining up some of my New Year's Resolutions and taking a minute to say a proper goodbye, instead of just a one line blurb at the end of a post unrelated to anything else.
I've been blogging off and on for 17 years now. In that time I've seen platforms progress from Live Journal (Where I started off as Sedosi Alhambra) to the rise of Blogspot to the market domination of Word Press to where we are now. Kind of a twilight/gloaning of a phase where blogs are many, but content is little.
I've blogged, politics, food, sports, gambling, entertainment and a whole host of other nonsensical things, and I've really enjoyed my time on these machines plugging away, trying to make the world a better and richer place and, occasionally, writing something worth reading.
I've allowed comments, blocked all comments, then allowed them, then blocked them and so-on. The sweet spot at the end was blocking. In today's society there's no such thing as reasonable back and forth and except for a commentor or three, very few people who actually wanted to engage.
But I was, at least, lightly read by some and this was always a good place for me to hash things out in my mind, which was really what this entire thing was about any way.
You will not miss me, I will not miss you, and we will continue to move along on this pebble finding different things daily of which to be outraged.
That said, to win this all up and put a bow on it. Here are my resolutions for 2020:
1. Do not feed the trolls.
2. Social Media less: Real life more.
3. Make better sports gambling picks.
4. Block out the noise.
5. Be nice.
6. Be healthy.
With number 5 in mind I wish you and yours a very happy and prosperous New Year and New Decade/ Maybe if we all stopped being so danged angry all of the time we would find out that most of us are not as different as we might think.
Ciao
Tuesday, December 31, 2019
Wednesday, December 18, 2019
Letter from the Ed: Look upon my works ye mighty and despair.
Social Media: It's not me, it's you.
For some time now I've been considering ending all of my social media accounts. I never check Facebook, I've only posted about 3 things on Instagram, and Twitter is becoming more and more of a fetid cesspool each and every day.
Today, I scheduled my Facebook account for full deletion, and on January 1, 2020 I plan to unfollow/block a ton of people, lock my account down, and only use it as a news aggregator rather than for social interaction. I'll keep a few acquaintances and people whom I've met in real life around but, for the most part, I'm calling it quits.
I'm also recording the last episode of "The Public Money" podcast today. For one, it's impossible for me to find time to do it unless I'm in my car and, for two, me being in my car makes the quality not what I want it to be.
The final reason for all of this is simple: I never got in this to monetize and make money, but suddenly I've been surrounded by a ton of people who only want to do those things.
Social media is a trap. It warps your world and sucks you into things that have no basis in reality. It makes you angrier, and more offended, than you should be, and it 100% can ruin a day. Rarely does it add enough good in one's life to offset the bad that it injects into your veins.
I'm also shuttering this blog. as a matter of fact, I'm putting an end to my blogging career after 17 years.
2020 is going to be a new year for me and I'm excited about it. It's going to be a year involved in the real world, doing charity work, working on me, and working with my loved ones.
I cannot wait.
As the old AOL script used to say: "Goodbye"
For some time now I've been considering ending all of my social media accounts. I never check Facebook, I've only posted about 3 things on Instagram, and Twitter is becoming more and more of a fetid cesspool each and every day.
Today, I scheduled my Facebook account for full deletion, and on January 1, 2020 I plan to unfollow/block a ton of people, lock my account down, and only use it as a news aggregator rather than for social interaction. I'll keep a few acquaintances and people whom I've met in real life around but, for the most part, I'm calling it quits.
I'm also recording the last episode of "The Public Money" podcast today. For one, it's impossible for me to find time to do it unless I'm in my car and, for two, me being in my car makes the quality not what I want it to be.
The final reason for all of this is simple: I never got in this to monetize and make money, but suddenly I've been surrounded by a ton of people who only want to do those things.
Social media is a trap. It warps your world and sucks you into things that have no basis in reality. It makes you angrier, and more offended, than you should be, and it 100% can ruin a day. Rarely does it add enough good in one's life to offset the bad that it injects into your veins.
I'm also shuttering this blog. as a matter of fact, I'm putting an end to my blogging career after 17 years.
2020 is going to be a new year for me and I'm excited about it. It's going to be a year involved in the real world, doing charity work, working on me, and working with my loved ones.
I cannot wait.
As the old AOL script used to say: "Goodbye"
Tuesday, December 17, 2019
How Gambling Media Covers "Parlay Patz" will Reveal a lot About their Usefulness.
Parlay Patz, a 23-year old who's hit a rather improbable run on long-shot money line parlays, is getting some attention from gambling media these days:
50 Days, $1.1 Million in winnings and One Wild Ride. Darren Rovell, The Action Network
These types of stories always seem to circulate from time to time. Young gambler, decides to take up the craft because of one reason or another, goes on an improbable short-term run, and then is never heard from again.
In the interim though, their story is told, some lucky breaks are revealed, big wins are chronicled, and a jet-setting lifestyle is broadcast for all to see. Marketing blitzes are created, the lucky gambler's face is plastered across the Internet and, if they're lucky, a way for them to monetize their success is determined before they fall out of the public eye.
Rarely, in the past, have follow-up stories been done, there are few "where are they now?" features that run AFTER the luck runs out, after the plane trips and catered lunches and friends on beaches.
In other words, the "books" who market these people for their own benefit, don't want the public to see the downside of the game. That's bad for public relations obviously.
Enter the relatively new genre of "gaming media", whose job it is to ostensibly cover the industry with candor but who, more often than not, wind up being little more than independent PR firms for the books rather than dispassionate coverage of the same.
Because Parlay Patz luck will run out. I don't wish this on hem, and I hope he invests wisely, but a read of the article by Rovell suggests strongly that he's not doing this through strong analytics or anything of the sort. In short, he's getting lucky. And the house edge (the Vig) is designed to wear away at luck over time. It's as persistent as water, it rarely loses. In fact, there are probably less than 100 individuals who are good enough at this game to beat it consistently. For most people (including me in a bit of full disclosure) gambling is a long-term losing situation. It's entertainment with a slight chance of coming out ahead.
Granted, you can study, learn strategy, build models, become good at algorithms or a host of other techniques but they do not build those big, extravagant casinos on the backs of winning gamblers.
So will Rovell, and the Action Network (and others) cover that?
The history is not promising.
The media, who are supposed to cover the network, have not, to my knowledge, started one project to track the records of so-called touts, many of whom claim remarkable (and unlikely) winning percentages of 75-80% over time. They have not, to my knowledge, covered the long-term hit percentages of many of the so-called "experts" in sports gaming. There are many examples that I could give you, but the purpose of this blog post is not to call out individual touts, it's to call out sports media for not doing their job.
On the podcast yesterday, I mentioned many of the faults with gambling Twitter as a whole, the biggest among them are inflated records, touting and general trolling. If gambling media wants to make a name for itself, it will call this out, identify it, and shine the disinfecting power of sunlight upon it.
If they continue to just report transient success stories with no questions asked?
They're not media, they are PR firms.
And you would be right to treat them as such.
50 Days, $1.1 Million in winnings and One Wild Ride. Darren Rovell, The Action Network
Who is Ben “Parlay” Patz? He’s a 23-year-old kid who has become the latest fascination of the gambling world, amassing more than $1.1 million in gross winnings via parlays — often seen as the sports gambling world’s version of the lottery — in less than two months.Patz has stayed away from including spreads within his parlays almost entirely, instead opting to back big moneyline favorites.It may not be a sound strategy over the long-term, but it seems to be working for Patz, who just landed at nearby Teterboro Airport after chartering a jet to take himself and three friends to the British Virgin Islands at a timeshare program he purchased with some of his gambling winnings. A private chef made them food.
These types of stories always seem to circulate from time to time. Young gambler, decides to take up the craft because of one reason or another, goes on an improbable short-term run, and then is never heard from again.
In the interim though, their story is told, some lucky breaks are revealed, big wins are chronicled, and a jet-setting lifestyle is broadcast for all to see. Marketing blitzes are created, the lucky gambler's face is plastered across the Internet and, if they're lucky, a way for them to monetize their success is determined before they fall out of the public eye.
Rarely, in the past, have follow-up stories been done, there are few "where are they now?" features that run AFTER the luck runs out, after the plane trips and catered lunches and friends on beaches.
In other words, the "books" who market these people for their own benefit, don't want the public to see the downside of the game. That's bad for public relations obviously.
Enter the relatively new genre of "gaming media", whose job it is to ostensibly cover the industry with candor but who, more often than not, wind up being little more than independent PR firms for the books rather than dispassionate coverage of the same.
Because Parlay Patz luck will run out. I don't wish this on hem, and I hope he invests wisely, but a read of the article by Rovell suggests strongly that he's not doing this through strong analytics or anything of the sort. In short, he's getting lucky. And the house edge (the Vig) is designed to wear away at luck over time. It's as persistent as water, it rarely loses. In fact, there are probably less than 100 individuals who are good enough at this game to beat it consistently. For most people (including me in a bit of full disclosure) gambling is a long-term losing situation. It's entertainment with a slight chance of coming out ahead.
Granted, you can study, learn strategy, build models, become good at algorithms or a host of other techniques but they do not build those big, extravagant casinos on the backs of winning gamblers.
So will Rovell, and the Action Network (and others) cover that?
The history is not promising.
The media, who are supposed to cover the network, have not, to my knowledge, started one project to track the records of so-called touts, many of whom claim remarkable (and unlikely) winning percentages of 75-80% over time. They have not, to my knowledge, covered the long-term hit percentages of many of the so-called "experts" in sports gaming. There are many examples that I could give you, but the purpose of this blog post is not to call out individual touts, it's to call out sports media for not doing their job.
On the podcast yesterday, I mentioned many of the faults with gambling Twitter as a whole, the biggest among them are inflated records, touting and general trolling. If gambling media wants to make a name for itself, it will call this out, identify it, and shine the disinfecting power of sunlight upon it.
If they continue to just report transient success stories with no questions asked?
They're not media, they are PR firms.
And you would be right to treat them as such.
Wednesday, December 4, 2019
College Football: If you're rooting for CHAOS in the CFP this year, I have bad news for you.
Every year in the CFP there's a chaos theory. Granted, it's usually far-fetched, and it requires a domino-falling scene like that one in the movie V for Vendetta, but it does exist. I typically root for it. For one, I'm not a huge fan of the CFP, which I've mentioned before on several occasions, and two, I really want to see some new teams get in there besides Ohio State, Alabama, Clemson and OU.
It's not that I dislike any of those teams (well, OK Ohio State) but I, and a lot of college football fans, are in for some new blood. Methinks this is why Utah has such a strong following this year.
In 2019 however, I cannot see such a scenario developing. For the reason why, let's review the CFP top 7 as revealed last night and discuss some scenarios....
1. Ohio State (12-0)
2. LSU (12-0)
3. Clemson (12-0)
4. Georgia (11-1)
5. Utah (11-1)
6. Oklahoma (11-1)
7. Baylor (11-1)
Of the top 7 teams 4 of them play each other.
Big XII Championship: 6 Oklahoma vs. 7 Baylor
SEC Championship: 2 LSU vs. 4 Georgia
So, let's discuss scenarios:
1 Ohio State, 2 LSU & 3. Clemson all lose.
IF that happens, and I don't think it will, then 1 Ohio State and 2 LSU are probably still in the playoff. They have the best Strength of schedule and their losses will be viewed by the committee as "good" because of their opponents, so I'm thinking they are still in.
Clemson is a little trickier. If they lose on a fluke play I think they still get in. IF Virginia handles them *snicker* then they might be in trouble but I think they still sneak in as the 4 seed.
If all of that happened then I think you might see this:
1. Georgia
2. Ohio State
3. LSU
4. Clemson.
Now, maybe IF Utah skull-drags Oregon across the field in the PAC-12 Championship they MIGHT sneak into the 4 over Clemson, OR, if OU boat-races Baylor etc. I don't see any way the CFP takes Baylor over Clemson, but I guess if Clemson gets hammered and Baylor wallops OU then something like that MIGHT happen.
Scenario 2: Ohio State and LSU BOTH win, Clemson and Georgia BOTH lose badly.
Interesting, but still not chaos. Should that happen you probably get this:
1. Ohio State
2. LSU
3. Utah (should they win, if not winner of OU Baylor)
4. The one of the two above left over.
Scenario 3: Everyone loses EXCEPT Baylor and Utah.
While it might, in some eyes, lead to some interesting seeding, I think that Something very similar to scenario one happens, but replace Clemson with Utah.
There are other scenarios to be sure, but most of them involve Ohio State and LSU/Georgia, and Clemson IN the playoff regardless. None of that can be described as chaos, and none of it can come close to imagining, say, a 2-loss Wisconsin or Alabama sneaking in ahead of the 1-loss teams.
You CFP is coming from the top 7 this year, we just don't know the final order as of yet.
What we do know is that there are sufficient undefeated and 1-loss teams in the mix to prevent true chaos from happening this year.
It's not that I dislike any of those teams (well, OK Ohio State) but I, and a lot of college football fans, are in for some new blood. Methinks this is why Utah has such a strong following this year.
In 2019 however, I cannot see such a scenario developing. For the reason why, let's review the CFP top 7 as revealed last night and discuss some scenarios....
1. Ohio State (12-0)
2. LSU (12-0)
3. Clemson (12-0)
4. Georgia (11-1)
5. Utah (11-1)
6. Oklahoma (11-1)
7. Baylor (11-1)
Of the top 7 teams 4 of them play each other.
Big XII Championship: 6 Oklahoma vs. 7 Baylor
SEC Championship: 2 LSU vs. 4 Georgia
So, let's discuss scenarios:
1 Ohio State, 2 LSU & 3. Clemson all lose.
IF that happens, and I don't think it will, then 1 Ohio State and 2 LSU are probably still in the playoff. They have the best Strength of schedule and their losses will be viewed by the committee as "good" because of their opponents, so I'm thinking they are still in.
Clemson is a little trickier. If they lose on a fluke play I think they still get in. IF Virginia handles them *snicker* then they might be in trouble but I think they still sneak in as the 4 seed.
If all of that happened then I think you might see this:
1. Georgia
2. Ohio State
3. LSU
4. Clemson.
Now, maybe IF Utah skull-drags Oregon across the field in the PAC-12 Championship they MIGHT sneak into the 4 over Clemson, OR, if OU boat-races Baylor etc. I don't see any way the CFP takes Baylor over Clemson, but I guess if Clemson gets hammered and Baylor wallops OU then something like that MIGHT happen.
Scenario 2: Ohio State and LSU BOTH win, Clemson and Georgia BOTH lose badly.
Interesting, but still not chaos. Should that happen you probably get this:
1. Ohio State
2. LSU
3. Utah (should they win, if not winner of OU Baylor)
4. The one of the two above left over.
Scenario 3: Everyone loses EXCEPT Baylor and Utah.
While it might, in some eyes, lead to some interesting seeding, I think that Something very similar to scenario one happens, but replace Clemson with Utah.
There are other scenarios to be sure, but most of them involve Ohio State and LSU/Georgia, and Clemson IN the playoff regardless. None of that can be described as chaos, and none of it can come close to imagining, say, a 2-loss Wisconsin or Alabama sneaking in ahead of the 1-loss teams.
You CFP is coming from the top 7 this year, we just don't know the final order as of yet.
What we do know is that there are sufficient undefeated and 1-loss teams in the mix to prevent true chaos from happening this year.
Tuesday, December 3, 2019
College Football: Clemson's Bad Schedule has more to do with the ACC being Terrible this year than their OOC Schedule
There's a lot of hand-wringing over Clemson's schedule this year. Their strength of schedule numbers are, to be kind, not good. But are they really all that much different from the other schools?
Let's take a quick look at the out-of-conference schedules for the top teams.
1. Ohio State
Florida Atlantic - Cincinnati - Miami (OH)
I've a feeling this is going to be one of the better OOC schedules you see at the top, but this is mostly because FAU and Cincinnati ended up at the top of their respective Group of 5 conferences.
2. LSU
Georgia State - Texas - Northwestern State - Utah State
To be fair, the Texas game a few years back, when this was scheduled, was probably expected to be a sterner test. Utah State as well. But FCS member Northwestern State follows the great tradition of SEC teams getting that cupcake week in. (more on that later)
3. Clemson
Texas A&M - Charlotte - Wofford - South Carolina
Much maligned, this OOC schedule, omitting FCS Wofford, is actually not THAT bad. You would have thought the Aggies and the Cocks would be better. It's not Clemson's fault the rest of their conference sucks.
4. Georgia
Murray Sate - Arkansas State - Notre Dame - Georgia Tech
Kudos for playing Notre Dame and, yes, they have the traditional SEC cupcake game in there in Murray State, but Arkansas State is a decent game and Georgia Tech is their in-state rival.
5. Utah
BYU - Northern Illinois - Idaho State
BYU is the Holy War, so they almost have to play that one. UNI has been pretty good up until this year so that's on OK game. Idaho State is the one that's the head-scratcher.
6. Oklahoma
Houston - South Dakota - UCLA
Outside of South Dakota this probably looked to be a tough OOC schedule a few years ago when it was made. I'm still not a fan of power teams scheduling the FCS (again, more on that later) but I understand why it happens.
7. Baylor
Stephen F. Austin - UT - San Antonio - Rice
This is truly pathetic, and the main reason the Bears are getting little respect this year. Granted, these schedules were made years in advance so hopefully Baylor stops following the Art Briles' recipe for scheduling in the coming years.
8. Florida
Miami (FL) - Tennessee Martin - Towson - Florida State
In-state rivalry games always make their schedule tougher, but there's no excuse for a top 10 team to be playing TWO FCS opponents every year.
9. Alabama
Duke - NM State - Southern Miss - WCU
Duke has been better of late than they were this year, but Southern Miss and NM State have been awful. There's no excuse for Bama playing WCU in any year.
10. Auburn
Oregon - Tulane - Kent State - Samford
Kudos for playing Oregon, and Tulane and Kent State were decent, although not good, Group of Five teams this year, but Samford?
Of course, (and here's the "more on that later" bit) the SEC always points to the need to play a cupcake FCS team because of the "Grind of the SEC Season". The problem with that logic, over the last few years, is that playing against many of the mid-to-lower tier SEC teams hasn't been that much of a grind at all. Outside of the top 4, many of whom do not play each other every year, the SEC is relatively weak, something that's played out during the regular season and in bowl season.
You can blame Clemson for Charlotte and Wofford, but not for the rest of their OOC schedule which, at the time of booking, probably looked to be pretty difficult. Nor can you blame them for the collapse of the ACC this year. You HAVE to play your conference games after all, you don't get to set that schedule.
Let's take a quick look at the out-of-conference schedules for the top teams.
1. Ohio State
Florida Atlantic - Cincinnati - Miami (OH)
I've a feeling this is going to be one of the better OOC schedules you see at the top, but this is mostly because FAU and Cincinnati ended up at the top of their respective Group of 5 conferences.
2. LSU
Georgia State - Texas - Northwestern State - Utah State
To be fair, the Texas game a few years back, when this was scheduled, was probably expected to be a sterner test. Utah State as well. But FCS member Northwestern State follows the great tradition of SEC teams getting that cupcake week in. (more on that later)
3. Clemson
Texas A&M - Charlotte - Wofford - South Carolina
Much maligned, this OOC schedule, omitting FCS Wofford, is actually not THAT bad. You would have thought the Aggies and the Cocks would be better. It's not Clemson's fault the rest of their conference sucks.
4. Georgia
Murray Sate - Arkansas State - Notre Dame - Georgia Tech
Kudos for playing Notre Dame and, yes, they have the traditional SEC cupcake game in there in Murray State, but Arkansas State is a decent game and Georgia Tech is their in-state rival.
5. Utah
BYU - Northern Illinois - Idaho State
BYU is the Holy War, so they almost have to play that one. UNI has been pretty good up until this year so that's on OK game. Idaho State is the one that's the head-scratcher.
6. Oklahoma
Houston - South Dakota - UCLA
Outside of South Dakota this probably looked to be a tough OOC schedule a few years ago when it was made. I'm still not a fan of power teams scheduling the FCS (again, more on that later) but I understand why it happens.
7. Baylor
Stephen F. Austin - UT - San Antonio - Rice
This is truly pathetic, and the main reason the Bears are getting little respect this year. Granted, these schedules were made years in advance so hopefully Baylor stops following the Art Briles' recipe for scheduling in the coming years.
8. Florida
Miami (FL) - Tennessee Martin - Towson - Florida State
In-state rivalry games always make their schedule tougher, but there's no excuse for a top 10 team to be playing TWO FCS opponents every year.
9. Alabama
Duke - NM State - Southern Miss - WCU
Duke has been better of late than they were this year, but Southern Miss and NM State have been awful. There's no excuse for Bama playing WCU in any year.
10. Auburn
Oregon - Tulane - Kent State - Samford
Kudos for playing Oregon, and Tulane and Kent State were decent, although not good, Group of Five teams this year, but Samford?
Of course, (and here's the "more on that later" bit) the SEC always points to the need to play a cupcake FCS team because of the "Grind of the SEC Season". The problem with that logic, over the last few years, is that playing against many of the mid-to-lower tier SEC teams hasn't been that much of a grind at all. Outside of the top 4, many of whom do not play each other every year, the SEC is relatively weak, something that's played out during the regular season and in bowl season.
You can blame Clemson for Charlotte and Wofford, but not for the rest of their OOC schedule which, at the time of booking, probably looked to be pretty difficult. Nor can you blame them for the collapse of the ACC this year. You HAVE to play your conference games after all, you don't get to set that schedule.
Monday, December 2, 2019
College Football: The Case for Ending "Championship Week"
Before we begin: I'm a HUGE college football fan, if you haven't figured that out already, and while I freely admit that the sport is not perfect (It's terribly flawed to be perfectly honest) watching college football on Saturday can be one of life's great joys.
"Championship Week" is not one of those joys.
Let's look at the current lines (as of the time of this writing) for the games.
Oregon vs. Utah (-6.5)
Miami(OH) vs. Central Michigan (-6.5)
Baylor vs. OU (-9)
UAB vs FAU (-7.5)
Cincinnati vs Memphis (-10)
Hawaii vs. Boise State (-14.5
Georgia vs. LSU (-7)
Virginia vs. Celmson (-28.5)
Wisconsin vs. Ohio State (-16.5)
Not, the most interesting slate of games. And in two cases, the ACC and the B1G, it could be argued that the games are not going to be competitive. In one case, the AAC, we're getting the exact same game, in the same stadium, that we just saw last Saturday. The only reasons these games are played at all is because of TV money and the misplaced desire on behalf of all involved to try and name "one true champion".
The problem is two-fold. One, not every conference can produce two elite teams year after year. So quite often these games are unwatchable blowouts. Second, college football does not now, nor did it ever, need "One true champion" to be great.
What makes college football great is the atmosphere, the pageantry and the buzz that builds on campus during game week and on game day. In many cases, especially for the bigger conferences, these games are played in soulless NFL stadiums under the glare of TV lights hundreds of miles away from each college, and it's barely even worth it any more.
If you have to have "one true champion" then just get rid of this week and expand the playoff to eight teams. While I'm an advocate of eliminating the playoff altogether, and returning to the old bowl system, I realize that's not a popular sentiment in this era of "My school is better than yours" where no ambiguity can be tolerated and one's standing in the college football hierarchy is not only a measuring stick for how good the team is, but is also used to justify the societal, moral, and character superiority of one fan base versus another.
If your team wins the National Championship then you're allowed to lord that over other, less-good, fan-bases based solely on the results of a football game in which you had zero influence. It's much the same as the city of any sports championship acting as if that makes them superior to other cities because.....why?
Sports have become our cultural touch-stone in this age of moral superiority. We NEED winners, we identify with winners and society has trouble living without winners because we're, as individuals, winning so little in life right now. I won't delve into the political-science of this (Out of scope for this blog) but I will say that a lot of the reasons so many feel like losers is that we've now been conditioned to just give up by our ruling class.
Eliminating Championship Week in college football, and allowing their to be co-champions, would be but one small step in rolling back this trend. We don't need "one true champion" what we need are competitive games, communal experiences and things that bring us together as fans.
In a world that is increasingly about winning, losing and, more importantly, crushing your opponents to dust without a thought, eliminating one chance for sad people to lord something as silly as a conference championship over another group of sad people, might now be all that big in the grand scheme of things, but it wouldn't be that small either.
Let's just start having fun again, without all of the anger and vitriol.
Is that too much to ask?
"Championship Week" is not one of those joys.
Let's look at the current lines (as of the time of this writing) for the games.
Oregon vs. Utah (-6.5)
Miami(OH) vs. Central Michigan (-6.5)
Baylor vs. OU (-9)
UAB vs FAU (-7.5)
Cincinnati vs Memphis (-10)
Hawaii vs. Boise State (-14.5
Georgia vs. LSU (-7)
Virginia vs. Celmson (-28.5)
Wisconsin vs. Ohio State (-16.5)
Not, the most interesting slate of games. And in two cases, the ACC and the B1G, it could be argued that the games are not going to be competitive. In one case, the AAC, we're getting the exact same game, in the same stadium, that we just saw last Saturday. The only reasons these games are played at all is because of TV money and the misplaced desire on behalf of all involved to try and name "one true champion".
The problem is two-fold. One, not every conference can produce two elite teams year after year. So quite often these games are unwatchable blowouts. Second, college football does not now, nor did it ever, need "One true champion" to be great.
What makes college football great is the atmosphere, the pageantry and the buzz that builds on campus during game week and on game day. In many cases, especially for the bigger conferences, these games are played in soulless NFL stadiums under the glare of TV lights hundreds of miles away from each college, and it's barely even worth it any more.
If you have to have "one true champion" then just get rid of this week and expand the playoff to eight teams. While I'm an advocate of eliminating the playoff altogether, and returning to the old bowl system, I realize that's not a popular sentiment in this era of "My school is better than yours" where no ambiguity can be tolerated and one's standing in the college football hierarchy is not only a measuring stick for how good the team is, but is also used to justify the societal, moral, and character superiority of one fan base versus another.
If your team wins the National Championship then you're allowed to lord that over other, less-good, fan-bases based solely on the results of a football game in which you had zero influence. It's much the same as the city of any sports championship acting as if that makes them superior to other cities because.....why?
Sports have become our cultural touch-stone in this age of moral superiority. We NEED winners, we identify with winners and society has trouble living without winners because we're, as individuals, winning so little in life right now. I won't delve into the political-science of this (Out of scope for this blog) but I will say that a lot of the reasons so many feel like losers is that we've now been conditioned to just give up by our ruling class.
Eliminating Championship Week in college football, and allowing their to be co-champions, would be but one small step in rolling back this trend. We don't need "one true champion" what we need are competitive games, communal experiences and things that bring us together as fans.
In a world that is increasingly about winning, losing and, more importantly, crushing your opponents to dust without a thought, eliminating one chance for sad people to lord something as silly as a conference championship over another group of sad people, might now be all that big in the grand scheme of things, but it wouldn't be that small either.
Let's just start having fun again, without all of the anger and vitriol.
Is that too much to ask?
College Football: Big Blue Post Mortem
"The Game"
It stirs up passion, anger, hate, meanness, viciousness and is the epitome of rivalry. And, while I think that the level of vitriol between the fan bases of Ohio State and Michigan respectively, has gotten a out of hand, I do always appreciate the annual tie between the two schools. Two Universities that need each other, that thrive off the other's existence, and who, like it or not, would not be what they are now without the other school being there to goad them.
But one of the two, I'm looking at YOU Michigan, has not been living up to their responsibilities of late, and there's even been talk that this is no longer really a rivalry game, but more of a "remember when" game where Michigan annually tries to bring back the ghosts of greatness, only to have them hammered back into the grave by the machine that is the Buckeyes right now.
The wings are clipped, if you will.
But why does it feel like the gap between the two schools is not being bridged? And, no Jim, it's not just that Ohio State played better than you on Saturday, it's that they ARE better. Whether you consider this an insult or not, it's true. If you cannot understand that then you are possibly incapable of remedying the situation as a whole.
The facts are this: Ohio State has embraced the present and future of college football while Michigan and Harbaugh are being skull-drug into it kicking and screaming all the way.
The is before you get to player analysis, before you realize that the last, great Michigan play-maker was....Mario Manningham? Before you realize that coaching staff does a horrible job developing O-Linemen, before you even begin to talk about whether or not Shea Patterson is a capable QB or no, or whether the defense is really all that they're hyped to be.
Ohio State is 5G, Michigan is dial-up. All Michigan did this year was try to add-on AOL.
There's a lot of pride in Michigan surrounding having a coach that's a "Michigan man". This is code for, someone who understands how Bo Schembechler coached the game and wishes to emulate that." History is great, and every school should recognize and honor theirs, but when it becomes an obsession to the point that it hinders your growth it's time to realize that you've got this all wonkered and it's time to embrace some change.
You can, and should, keep your tradition while modernizing on the field. But you have to recruit right, you have to bring in coaches who can properly develop players, and there's scant evidence that the current Michigan staff is up to the challenge.
That doesn't mean that they cannot game-plan well. Because, and this sounds funny in a game that was a 56-27 rout, they actually DID have winning game plan, and the right plan for beating Ohio State, on Saturday, but they didn't have the horses to pull it off.
What they did well:
1. Scheme the passing game. Michigan had open receivers all day. Peoples-Jones and Bell were wide open at times. If only they could have caught the ball on a more consistent basis.
2. Contain Chase Young. Twitter was melting down over 'holds' on Young, but the fact is the O-Line did a good job containing him. They were so focused on this they forgot the rest of the game however.
There will be a lot of things from this game that other teams will study and try and replicate. IF they have the talent Ohio State might be in a little trouble because the blueprint is now out there.
But that still leaves us with the question: WHY is Michigan not improving?
Before we answer that, I want to make this statement: ABSOLUTELY the program is in better shape now than when Harbaugh inherited it from Brady Hoke. The talent level is higher all around, the coaching is better, etc.
But we appear to have hit a plateau. Jim Harbaugh is getting perilously close to the "Glen Mason Zone" that zone where you raise the bar, but then flatten out at 8-4 or 9-3 and cannot seem to find an answer to improve from there.
Here's Harbaugh's coaching record at Michigan:
2015 - 10-3 Bowl: Citrus (w)
2016 - 10-3 Bowl: Orange (l)
2017 - 8-5 Bowl: Outback (l)
2018 - 10-3 Bowl: Peach (l)
2019 - 9-3
Seeing a trend here?
It is possible that 10-3 is the best that Harbaugh is ever going to do at Michigan. His BEST year in college coaching was his last year at Stanford, where he went 12-1 and won the Orange Bowl. Given that the B1G is tougher than the Pac-12 I cannot see that being replicated at Michigan any time soon.
Can this be fixed?
Honestly, I'm not sure. On paper Michigan SHOULD be able to compete with the elite tier of FBS schools every year. They SHOULD be a "machine" at the level of Ohio State, Alabama, Clemson. The budget and infrastructure is there.
But the results on the field are not. And the changes needed to fix this go way beyond just firing Don Brown. They may require a new head coach and a new direction, something that gives Michigan fans the heebie-jeebies because of the Rich Rodriguez error. But something that probably needs to happen anyway.
Whatever they do they need to get it right, or risk accepting taking a back seat to the Buckeyes and claiming Michigan State as their true rivals, which some have already suggested.
I still think there are sparks of a rivalry there with Ohio State but, for now, Michigan fans are fox-holed and Ohio State is winning the battles all over the place. What both schools need to realize is that this rivalry is much better when both schools are good. You WANT this game to determine who's moving to the B1G Championship every year, you WANT CFP consideration to be on the line.
It's up to Michigan to make that happen. The Buckeyes are doing their bit, as we'll see in the coming weeks.
Go Blue.
It stirs up passion, anger, hate, meanness, viciousness and is the epitome of rivalry. And, while I think that the level of vitriol between the fan bases of Ohio State and Michigan respectively, has gotten a out of hand, I do always appreciate the annual tie between the two schools. Two Universities that need each other, that thrive off the other's existence, and who, like it or not, would not be what they are now without the other school being there to goad them.
But one of the two, I'm looking at YOU Michigan, has not been living up to their responsibilities of late, and there's even been talk that this is no longer really a rivalry game, but more of a "remember when" game where Michigan annually tries to bring back the ghosts of greatness, only to have them hammered back into the grave by the machine that is the Buckeyes right now.
The wings are clipped, if you will.
But why does it feel like the gap between the two schools is not being bridged? And, no Jim, it's not just that Ohio State played better than you on Saturday, it's that they ARE better. Whether you consider this an insult or not, it's true. If you cannot understand that then you are possibly incapable of remedying the situation as a whole.
The facts are this: Ohio State has embraced the present and future of college football while Michigan and Harbaugh are being skull-drug into it kicking and screaming all the way.
The is before you get to player analysis, before you realize that the last, great Michigan play-maker was....Mario Manningham? Before you realize that coaching staff does a horrible job developing O-Linemen, before you even begin to talk about whether or not Shea Patterson is a capable QB or no, or whether the defense is really all that they're hyped to be.
Ohio State is 5G, Michigan is dial-up. All Michigan did this year was try to add-on AOL.
There's a lot of pride in Michigan surrounding having a coach that's a "Michigan man". This is code for, someone who understands how Bo Schembechler coached the game and wishes to emulate that." History is great, and every school should recognize and honor theirs, but when it becomes an obsession to the point that it hinders your growth it's time to realize that you've got this all wonkered and it's time to embrace some change.
You can, and should, keep your tradition while modernizing on the field. But you have to recruit right, you have to bring in coaches who can properly develop players, and there's scant evidence that the current Michigan staff is up to the challenge.
That doesn't mean that they cannot game-plan well. Because, and this sounds funny in a game that was a 56-27 rout, they actually DID have winning game plan, and the right plan for beating Ohio State, on Saturday, but they didn't have the horses to pull it off.
What they did well:
1. Scheme the passing game. Michigan had open receivers all day. Peoples-Jones and Bell were wide open at times. If only they could have caught the ball on a more consistent basis.
2. Contain Chase Young. Twitter was melting down over 'holds' on Young, but the fact is the O-Line did a good job containing him. They were so focused on this they forgot the rest of the game however.
There will be a lot of things from this game that other teams will study and try and replicate. IF they have the talent Ohio State might be in a little trouble because the blueprint is now out there.
But that still leaves us with the question: WHY is Michigan not improving?
Before we answer that, I want to make this statement: ABSOLUTELY the program is in better shape now than when Harbaugh inherited it from Brady Hoke. The talent level is higher all around, the coaching is better, etc.
But we appear to have hit a plateau. Jim Harbaugh is getting perilously close to the "Glen Mason Zone" that zone where you raise the bar, but then flatten out at 8-4 or 9-3 and cannot seem to find an answer to improve from there.
Here's Harbaugh's coaching record at Michigan:
2015 - 10-3 Bowl: Citrus (w)
2016 - 10-3 Bowl: Orange (l)
2017 - 8-5 Bowl: Outback (l)
2018 - 10-3 Bowl: Peach (l)
2019 - 9-3
Seeing a trend here?
It is possible that 10-3 is the best that Harbaugh is ever going to do at Michigan. His BEST year in college coaching was his last year at Stanford, where he went 12-1 and won the Orange Bowl. Given that the B1G is tougher than the Pac-12 I cannot see that being replicated at Michigan any time soon.
Can this be fixed?
Honestly, I'm not sure. On paper Michigan SHOULD be able to compete with the elite tier of FBS schools every year. They SHOULD be a "machine" at the level of Ohio State, Alabama, Clemson. The budget and infrastructure is there.
But the results on the field are not. And the changes needed to fix this go way beyond just firing Don Brown. They may require a new head coach and a new direction, something that gives Michigan fans the heebie-jeebies because of the Rich Rodriguez error. But something that probably needs to happen anyway.
Whatever they do they need to get it right, or risk accepting taking a back seat to the Buckeyes and claiming Michigan State as their true rivals, which some have already suggested.
I still think there are sparks of a rivalry there with Ohio State but, for now, Michigan fans are fox-holed and Ohio State is winning the battles all over the place. What both schools need to realize is that this rivalry is much better when both schools are good. You WANT this game to determine who's moving to the B1G Championship every year, you WANT CFP consideration to be on the line.
It's up to Michigan to make that happen. The Buckeyes are doing their bit, as we'll see in the coming weeks.
Go Blue.
Tuesday, November 26, 2019
Sports Betting: Square Money
Given the title of this blog, you would not be surprised to find out that I find all of the talk about "sharp plays" and "public (square) plays" to be fascinating.
I do for a couple of reasons:
1. There 's a lot of confusion in the sports betting market about what a "sharp" actually is.
If you listen to a lot of the noise there's an awful lot of "sharp" money out there, a lot of people who consider themselves "sharp" and a lot of people who consider others to be "sharp" because they talk. A LOT.
The fact is few of these "sharps" really are.
2. The Public (or square, going forward) money is more prevalent in the market than you think.
A big proportion of so-called "sharp" money is actually "square" money with above average PR. Many touts, so-called 'experts', are as square as it gets if you track their play, examine the lines they grab and follow their results. Also, many touts offer up plays with stale lines (with no disclosure) and cherry-pick results, sometimes slicing the pie so thin it becomes translucent.
I was not surprised all that much then to see the following Bloomberg story about Wall Street deciding they have the analytical chops to dive into sports betting:
Wall Street is wading into sports gambling as legalization spreads. Bloomberg
Of course, this is not the norm, and the article goes on to say that many hedge funds are getting involved by investing in back-end technology but, as an observer of the sports betting world, the above blurb intrigued me because I'm sure this division is going to immediately be classified as "sharp" despite the fact that they're most probably not.
First, they're probably day traders, trying to adjust their modeling to handle sports wagers. Second, they have no track record of prolonged success that would insinuate that they are, in fact, "sharp" at picking lines and placing bets. Third, you primarily see them laying action at retail books, which is the very definition of 'square'.
The the European books are taking their action, with no punitive limits or back-offs, to this date shows that their betting is based on little more than random averages. In short: luck. Even the squarest of bettors can find hit-rates of somewhere around 50%, the sharpest of bettors float around 53-55%. The difference seems small, but is actually huge.
Given the track record of Wall Street it won't be long before these betting divisions gussy themselves up and start operating as 'corporate touts', putting a shiny new coat of paint on a dilapidated business practice that's remarkably similar to investment firms.
You pay regardless of financial outcome. Win or lose, they make money off of your fees and commissions.
Sound familiar?
I do for a couple of reasons:
1. There 's a lot of confusion in the sports betting market about what a "sharp" actually is.
If you listen to a lot of the noise there's an awful lot of "sharp" money out there, a lot of people who consider themselves "sharp" and a lot of people who consider others to be "sharp" because they talk. A LOT.
The fact is few of these "sharps" really are.
2. The Public (or square, going forward) money is more prevalent in the market than you think.
A big proportion of so-called "sharp" money is actually "square" money with above average PR. Many touts, so-called 'experts', are as square as it gets if you track their play, examine the lines they grab and follow their results. Also, many touts offer up plays with stale lines (with no disclosure) and cherry-pick results, sometimes slicing the pie so thin it becomes translucent.
I was not surprised all that much then to see the following Bloomberg story about Wall Street deciding they have the analytical chops to dive into sports betting:
Wall Street is wading into sports gambling as legalization spreads. Bloomberg
The line between trading and gambling has always been fuzzy. So now that 13 U.S. states have live legal sports betting and several more have approved it, following a 2018 Supreme Court ruling, it’s natural to wonder if Wall Street will start looking for a piece of the action.A few firms already are. At least one is actually making bets, much as a hedge fund trades stocks. Susquehanna International Group LLP, a quantitative trading firm headquartered in Bala Cynwyd, Pa., is building up a sports betting division in Ireland, where such wagers have long been legal. The business unit, called Nellie Analytics—named after co-founder Jeff Yass’s dog—has about 20 employees.
Of course, this is not the norm, and the article goes on to say that many hedge funds are getting involved by investing in back-end technology but, as an observer of the sports betting world, the above blurb intrigued me because I'm sure this division is going to immediately be classified as "sharp" despite the fact that they're most probably not.
First, they're probably day traders, trying to adjust their modeling to handle sports wagers. Second, they have no track record of prolonged success that would insinuate that they are, in fact, "sharp" at picking lines and placing bets. Third, you primarily see them laying action at retail books, which is the very definition of 'square'.
The the European books are taking their action, with no punitive limits or back-offs, to this date shows that their betting is based on little more than random averages. In short: luck. Even the squarest of bettors can find hit-rates of somewhere around 50%, the sharpest of bettors float around 53-55%. The difference seems small, but is actually huge.
Given the track record of Wall Street it won't be long before these betting divisions gussy themselves up and start operating as 'corporate touts', putting a shiny new coat of paint on a dilapidated business practice that's remarkably similar to investment firms.
You pay regardless of financial outcome. Win or lose, they make money off of your fees and commissions.
Sound familiar?
Wednesday, November 20, 2019
College Football: Nobody (Except LSU) has played anybody.
The question of who is the "Top 4" and in the College Football Playoff this year is a tricky one. Unless we have some major attrition the rest of the way, and history suggests we will, there are going to be a LOT of angry people arguing over who the number 4 team should be. If things play out as I expect, 1-3 should be pretty straight forward.
The problem comes when you start looking at the team's schedules, and records, and you start to realize that, outside of the top 3 (who are currently undefeated) NONE of the remaining team's have all that strong of a case for inclusion.
Let's look at the records....
1. LSU
Best Wins: Alabama, Florida, Auburn
Best Loss: None (undefeated)
LSU is a clear number one. They have three top-tier wins and one good win over Texas at a neutral site. It's just not close.
2. Ohio State
Best Wins: Wisconsin, Cincinnati
Best Loss: None (undefeated)
The Buckeyes are a clear #2. The gap between them and Clemson is actually pretty large as you'll see.
3. Clemson
Best wins: Texas A&M
Best Loss: None (undefeated)
The problem for Clemson is that there are no more opportunities for them to pick up a real, quality win. Unless the two above them lose, they will not be moving up from here.
4. Georgia
Best wins: Florida, Notre Dame, Auburn
Best Loss: South Carolina
Granted, they've only lost one, and the SC loss, at home, is a head scratcher. But they have three pretty solid wins that give them the edge now. Their problem? They have to face LSU in the SEC Title game. Ugh(a)...
5. Alabama
Best Wins: Texas A&M
Best Loss: LSU
They have a game against Auburn upcoming, but before that they play FCE doormat WCU. The Tide's schedule is awful this year and it's illustrative of the myth of the SEC Blender that all the coaches cry about. Even if they beat Auburn the argument for their inclusion is going to be flimsy, but my guess is, if they win out, they get in.
6. Oregon
Best Wins: USC
Best Loss: Auburn on a neutral field in the first game of the season.
Talk all you want about how "Oregon should have won that game" but they didn't, and the PAC-12 this year was not very good. Unless Bama loses I don't see them getting in with that schedule and the loss to Auburn, who will be a common opponent with the Tide.
7. Utah
Best Wins: Washington
Best Loss: USC
Another team with zero resume. They just haven't beat anyone good and the USC loss is probably enough to keep them out. A win over Oregon would help, but outside of that.....
8. Penn State
Best Wins: Michigan, Iowa
Best Loss: Minnesota
The Nittany Lions have a CHANCE to move up if they beat Ohio State this weekend, I would actually put them in over Bama should they win out, and win the B1G, but I don't see that happening.
9. Oklahoma
Best Wins: Baylor, Texas
Best Loss: Kansas State
They still have a shot to move up with wins over OSU and probably a rematch with Baylor in the Bix XII(Ten) championship game, but that loss to Kansas State is like a giant wart on their schedule. Needing luck to escape Iowa State at home hurt as well.
10. Minnesota
Best Wins: Penn State
Best Loss: Iowa
Really needed to win at Iowa, then two weeks from now against Wisconsin and again in the B1G Championship to have a chance. Outside of the two games I mentioned, they've just not played anyone of note.
The problem here is that Alabama is the 800 lb gorilla in the room. Yes, their schedule has sucked, they've lost their QB, but they still have the straightest path to the 4 seed because, ironically, they probably won't play for a conference championship.
In a season where there are two good teams, one team that's a defending champion, extremely talented but has under-performed, and a bunch of teams with bad schedules and rough losses, a 1-loss Tide with only a loss to LSU seems to be the choice the committee will make.
This is illustrative of everything that's wrong with the CFP, but there you are.
The problem comes when you start looking at the team's schedules, and records, and you start to realize that, outside of the top 3 (who are currently undefeated) NONE of the remaining team's have all that strong of a case for inclusion.
Let's look at the records....
1. LSU
Best Wins: Alabama, Florida, Auburn
Best Loss: None (undefeated)
LSU is a clear number one. They have three top-tier wins and one good win over Texas at a neutral site. It's just not close.
2. Ohio State
Best Wins: Wisconsin, Cincinnati
Best Loss: None (undefeated)
The Buckeyes are a clear #2. The gap between them and Clemson is actually pretty large as you'll see.
3. Clemson
Best wins: Texas A&M
Best Loss: None (undefeated)
The problem for Clemson is that there are no more opportunities for them to pick up a real, quality win. Unless the two above them lose, they will not be moving up from here.
4. Georgia
Best wins: Florida, Notre Dame, Auburn
Best Loss: South Carolina
Granted, they've only lost one, and the SC loss, at home, is a head scratcher. But they have three pretty solid wins that give them the edge now. Their problem? They have to face LSU in the SEC Title game. Ugh(a)...
5. Alabama
Best Wins: Texas A&M
Best Loss: LSU
They have a game against Auburn upcoming, but before that they play FCE doormat WCU. The Tide's schedule is awful this year and it's illustrative of the myth of the SEC Blender that all the coaches cry about. Even if they beat Auburn the argument for their inclusion is going to be flimsy, but my guess is, if they win out, they get in.
6. Oregon
Best Wins: USC
Best Loss: Auburn on a neutral field in the first game of the season.
Talk all you want about how "Oregon should have won that game" but they didn't, and the PAC-12 this year was not very good. Unless Bama loses I don't see them getting in with that schedule and the loss to Auburn, who will be a common opponent with the Tide.
7. Utah
Best Wins: Washington
Best Loss: USC
Another team with zero resume. They just haven't beat anyone good and the USC loss is probably enough to keep them out. A win over Oregon would help, but outside of that.....
8. Penn State
Best Wins: Michigan, Iowa
Best Loss: Minnesota
The Nittany Lions have a CHANCE to move up if they beat Ohio State this weekend, I would actually put them in over Bama should they win out, and win the B1G, but I don't see that happening.
9. Oklahoma
Best Wins: Baylor, Texas
Best Loss: Kansas State
They still have a shot to move up with wins over OSU and probably a rematch with Baylor in the Bix XII(Ten) championship game, but that loss to Kansas State is like a giant wart on their schedule. Needing luck to escape Iowa State at home hurt as well.
10. Minnesota
Best Wins: Penn State
Best Loss: Iowa
Really needed to win at Iowa, then two weeks from now against Wisconsin and again in the B1G Championship to have a chance. Outside of the two games I mentioned, they've just not played anyone of note.
The problem here is that Alabama is the 800 lb gorilla in the room. Yes, their schedule has sucked, they've lost their QB, but they still have the straightest path to the 4 seed because, ironically, they probably won't play for a conference championship.
In a season where there are two good teams, one team that's a defending champion, extremely talented but has under-performed, and a bunch of teams with bad schedules and rough losses, a 1-loss Tide with only a loss to LSU seems to be the choice the committee will make.
This is illustrative of everything that's wrong with the CFP, but there you are.
Tuesday, November 19, 2019
Sports betting: Embrace the GRIND
Despite what you hear from many touts on Twitter and on sports gambling media, the game of sports betting is not always 80% win rates and bankrupting bookies.
Usually it's a slog.
Not that good weekends/runs don't happen (they do) but most of the time you're clicking along at 52% or less and wondering just why it is that you do this crazy thing called sports betting. I, for one, have had many weeks where I sit back and marvel how 6 picks that my numbers suggested were good, somehow went 3-3 or 2-4 and I look at my balance at the end of the week and it's substantially the same as it was to begin the week.
But that's sports betting. Even the most successful in the industry slog along with low profit margins and fight the Vig continuously. That's the game.
The reason for this is that the house is VERY good, and finding opportunities to beat them, above and beyond random luck, is HARD. Anyone who tells you otherwise is selling something, and making most of their money off of pick sales rather than actual picks, or is just flat out lying on Twitter, or is looking at a small sample size.
People DO, and can, go on sustained runs. I know several who openly post their picks, and they're good picks, who are having magnificent seasons, long runs of winning etc. I've also known those same people to have down periods, to struggle at times, and to be very open about doing so.
Losing in sports betting from time to time is not a sign of a bad handicapper, it's the sign that you're actually handicapping and being truthful about the results. In addition to inflated records, etc. one of the worst sins is the past-posting of odds.
Not that you cannot take a side early, before the line really settles in. I have done the same things and, although it doesn't always work out, I try my best to be open and honest when it occurs.
My NFL plays this week are an example of this. On Monday I took advantage of several lines that I liked, that I thought might not be there later in the week. They are:
Pittsburgh -7
Colts +3.5
Baltimore -3.5
While none of these lines have moved significantly yet, my feeling is that they're going to be long gone by Sunday. And, granted, the Baltimore line is not the best one in the world, I don't think it's going to see 3 and, in fact, I think it will move somewhat significantly the other way.
My feeling, you have the right to disagree, is that past posting a line, provided you say when you took the line, and acknowledge the line has moved, is not that big of a sin. UNLESS you're trying to use that "success record" to tout actual picks using a record that's largely built on past posting.
There are a LOT of inflated records out there that are built entirely on past-posted lines that may, but probably are not, be legit. Don't fall into that trip.
But another trap to avoid is the "woe is me" trap. If you're struggling, re-evaluate your performance and try to figure out what happened when it all DID go tits up. Mistakes are not killers unless you do not learn from them.
If you don't, the lesson you're going to learn is how a bank roll can disappear and just how damaging it can be to have to re-load and start from scratch. This is also what can get you in trouble. Don't chase your losses, learn from them.
Once you learn to do that simple skill then your performance as a sports bettor is going to improve mightily.
Track your bets, analyze them, learn from your losses and enjoy your winners. But learn from the winners also. It's just as important to understand what you're doing right as it is to learn from what you're doing wrong.
It's a helluva lot more fun to boot.
Good luck however you bet.
Usually it's a slog.
Not that good weekends/runs don't happen (they do) but most of the time you're clicking along at 52% or less and wondering just why it is that you do this crazy thing called sports betting. I, for one, have had many weeks where I sit back and marvel how 6 picks that my numbers suggested were good, somehow went 3-3 or 2-4 and I look at my balance at the end of the week and it's substantially the same as it was to begin the week.
But that's sports betting. Even the most successful in the industry slog along with low profit margins and fight the Vig continuously. That's the game.
The reason for this is that the house is VERY good, and finding opportunities to beat them, above and beyond random luck, is HARD. Anyone who tells you otherwise is selling something, and making most of their money off of pick sales rather than actual picks, or is just flat out lying on Twitter, or is looking at a small sample size.
People DO, and can, go on sustained runs. I know several who openly post their picks, and they're good picks, who are having magnificent seasons, long runs of winning etc. I've also known those same people to have down periods, to struggle at times, and to be very open about doing so.
Losing in sports betting from time to time is not a sign of a bad handicapper, it's the sign that you're actually handicapping and being truthful about the results. In addition to inflated records, etc. one of the worst sins is the past-posting of odds.
Not that you cannot take a side early, before the line really settles in. I have done the same things and, although it doesn't always work out, I try my best to be open and honest when it occurs.
My NFL plays this week are an example of this. On Monday I took advantage of several lines that I liked, that I thought might not be there later in the week. They are:
Pittsburgh -7
Colts +3.5
Baltimore -3.5
While none of these lines have moved significantly yet, my feeling is that they're going to be long gone by Sunday. And, granted, the Baltimore line is not the best one in the world, I don't think it's going to see 3 and, in fact, I think it will move somewhat significantly the other way.
My feeling, you have the right to disagree, is that past posting a line, provided you say when you took the line, and acknowledge the line has moved, is not that big of a sin. UNLESS you're trying to use that "success record" to tout actual picks using a record that's largely built on past posting.
There are a LOT of inflated records out there that are built entirely on past-posted lines that may, but probably are not, be legit. Don't fall into that trip.
But another trap to avoid is the "woe is me" trap. If you're struggling, re-evaluate your performance and try to figure out what happened when it all DID go tits up. Mistakes are not killers unless you do not learn from them.
If you don't, the lesson you're going to learn is how a bank roll can disappear and just how damaging it can be to have to re-load and start from scratch. This is also what can get you in trouble. Don't chase your losses, learn from them.
Once you learn to do that simple skill then your performance as a sports bettor is going to improve mightily.
Track your bets, analyze them, learn from your losses and enjoy your winners. But learn from the winners also. It's just as important to understand what you're doing right as it is to learn from what you're doing wrong.
It's a helluva lot more fun to boot.
Good luck however you bet.
Tuesday, November 12, 2019
Pour one out for the degenerate's diner: Aria Cafe
What we feared was coming for a while has been confirmed.
Aria Cafe is closing to make way for Din Tai Fung a critically, and publicly, acclaimed Thai dumpling shop.
I love Thai food probably more than the next person, in fact, I've warned the groups at work that I manager for years that if they do not select a place for our monthly luncheons, they will be eating Thai food every time, but I cannot help to be just a little disappointed in this news, despite the fact that we have known it's coming for a while now.
In retrospect, the writing was on the wall when they cut back the hours for Aria Cafe. That was too bad because it had long been the one place that the degenerate gambler could go grab a decent sandwich (or, if you had a Galaxy Brain, a bowl of Chicken Noodle Soup) at 3 AM after a long VP or Blackjack session and before you started your early morning gambling.
The Aria Cafe had a great location, was a good room, and had a spectacular late night/early morning view. It was simple, relatively inexpensive for the Strip, and just doesn't have a place in the hyper-competitive, faux-luxury wonderland that the Strip is now trying to be.
The reality is that we don't live in a diner and iced-tea world any more. And Aria Cafe was a throwback on a street that doesn't really care all that much for history. I'm not saying that it's a bad thing, only a thing. In this case it's a thing that has eliminated one of the better late-night places on the Strip.
In fact, unless you're looking for high-end dining, the Strip is pretty much a wasteland right now outside of the Cosmopolitan (Block 16 and The Pizza Shop) and the Miracle Mile.
What I am sure of is that Din Tai Fung will be more expensive than was the Aria Cafe, and it will be packed. Whether or not it will scratch the degenerate's dining itch is yet to be known, but I doubt it.
This continues a trend of me finding less and less to do on the Strip as my Vegas time goes forward. While I enjoyed my stay at Park MGM, there just wasn't a lot that I wanted to DO there. I found Eataly to be just "meh" but overly pricey, and the one VP bar that they have remaining was OK, but you still have issues with the pay tables being awful.
Block 16 at the Cosmo, especially Lardo, was exceptional, and I'm sure I'll spend more time there, but outside of that the Strip is just a place to see the Conservatory, the Fountains, V/P and WynnCore and the other high end hotels before moving on to off-strip locations.
I had a better time at Born and Raised Henderson than I did at any place on the Las Vegas Strip. And I spent way less money, ate just as well, and made a ton of new friends as well.
Just another nail in the Strip coffin for me TBH.
Aria Cafe is closing to make way for Din Tai Fung a critically, and publicly, acclaimed Thai dumpling shop.
I love Thai food probably more than the next person, in fact, I've warned the groups at work that I manager for years that if they do not select a place for our monthly luncheons, they will be eating Thai food every time, but I cannot help to be just a little disappointed in this news, despite the fact that we have known it's coming for a while now.
In retrospect, the writing was on the wall when they cut back the hours for Aria Cafe. That was too bad because it had long been the one place that the degenerate gambler could go grab a decent sandwich (or, if you had a Galaxy Brain, a bowl of Chicken Noodle Soup) at 3 AM after a long VP or Blackjack session and before you started your early morning gambling.
The Aria Cafe had a great location, was a good room, and had a spectacular late night/early morning view. It was simple, relatively inexpensive for the Strip, and just doesn't have a place in the hyper-competitive, faux-luxury wonderland that the Strip is now trying to be.
The reality is that we don't live in a diner and iced-tea world any more. And Aria Cafe was a throwback on a street that doesn't really care all that much for history. I'm not saying that it's a bad thing, only a thing. In this case it's a thing that has eliminated one of the better late-night places on the Strip.
In fact, unless you're looking for high-end dining, the Strip is pretty much a wasteland right now outside of the Cosmopolitan (Block 16 and The Pizza Shop) and the Miracle Mile.
What I am sure of is that Din Tai Fung will be more expensive than was the Aria Cafe, and it will be packed. Whether or not it will scratch the degenerate's dining itch is yet to be known, but I doubt it.
This continues a trend of me finding less and less to do on the Strip as my Vegas time goes forward. While I enjoyed my stay at Park MGM, there just wasn't a lot that I wanted to DO there. I found Eataly to be just "meh" but overly pricey, and the one VP bar that they have remaining was OK, but you still have issues with the pay tables being awful.
Block 16 at the Cosmo, especially Lardo, was exceptional, and I'm sure I'll spend more time there, but outside of that the Strip is just a place to see the Conservatory, the Fountains, V/P and WynnCore and the other high end hotels before moving on to off-strip locations.
I had a better time at Born and Raised Henderson than I did at any place on the Las Vegas Strip. And I spent way less money, ate just as well, and made a ton of new friends as well.
Just another nail in the Strip coffin for me TBH.
Tuesday, October 15, 2019
Ban Steve Wynn!! (Then figure out how to address his [very real] Vegas Legacy)
News hit yesterday that Nevada was considering banning former Casino Mogul Steve Wynn from the Casino Industry, for life.
As I understand it, this is NOT the same as putting him in the notorious 'black book' but making it impossible for him to ever receive a gaming license again. He can walk into a Vegas Casino, he can just never own one, or be in management of one, again.
I'm OK with this. In fact, I would support doing this. Even IF things are as Mr. Wynn says and all of the sexual dalliances were "consensual" that doesn't take into account the boss/worker dynamic. Where a person with whom your future employment lies asks you to do something you don't want to do, even without the implicit threat that you'll be fired, the prospect is always hanging over you like the sword of Damocles. It's an impossible choice, a choice that's unfair to the salon attendants or the other workers that have come forward.
So yes, ban him for whatever years he has remaining.
Then let us all figure out just how we're going to address the issue of his Vegas legacy.
Because that legacy, as much as many want to deny it now, is real. The Mirage, Treasure Island and the Bellagio were all the result of the vision of Steve Wynn, as are the Wynn and the Encore now. And it can be argued that the Mirage is the most important casino on the Strip, immediately after the Flamingo. The Bellagio Fountains are the number one most important attraction on the Strip, and the most iconic.
Those are Steve Wynn's, like it or not. And his turning out to be a bad guy (shocker!) doesn't mean that we can wash that history away and pretend it doesn't exist. Especially in Las Vegas, where all-around bad guy Bugsy Siegel is worshiped as a visionary, given statues and has restaurants named after him.
Moe Dalitz was named "Man of the Year" by several organizations for Chrissakes.
So, yeah, Sin City is going to have to figure out how to honor the legacy of yet another allegedly "bad guy". They should be used to it by now. The problem is I don't think society is going to romanticize the sexually-assaulting/rapey CEO's in future times like they romanticized the leg-breaking/shoot-em-up/cold blooded killing mobster. Mario Puzo ain't likely to write "The Executive" like he did "The Godfather".
So this is the first time that Las Vegas is going to have to come to terms with its history being written and forged by someone who is going to remain viewed in a negative light by most of the people who visit. People say they yearn for the days "when the mob was in charge" of Vegas, I don't think we'll see such yearning for "when the sexual assaulters were in charge".
That legacy is still there however, still glowing on the strip, volcano erupting, fountains putting on a show, only the pirate show at TI is no longer active.
How do you tell that story separate from the recent events and remain true, but still not leave out the bad stuff? Las Vegas is going to have to figure that out.
Their track record for doing so is not, to be generous, all that stellar in this regard.
As I understand it, this is NOT the same as putting him in the notorious 'black book' but making it impossible for him to ever receive a gaming license again. He can walk into a Vegas Casino, he can just never own one, or be in management of one, again.
I'm OK with this. In fact, I would support doing this. Even IF things are as Mr. Wynn says and all of the sexual dalliances were "consensual" that doesn't take into account the boss/worker dynamic. Where a person with whom your future employment lies asks you to do something you don't want to do, even without the implicit threat that you'll be fired, the prospect is always hanging over you like the sword of Damocles. It's an impossible choice, a choice that's unfair to the salon attendants or the other workers that have come forward.
So yes, ban him for whatever years he has remaining.
Then let us all figure out just how we're going to address the issue of his Vegas legacy.
Because that legacy, as much as many want to deny it now, is real. The Mirage, Treasure Island and the Bellagio were all the result of the vision of Steve Wynn, as are the Wynn and the Encore now. And it can be argued that the Mirage is the most important casino on the Strip, immediately after the Flamingo. The Bellagio Fountains are the number one most important attraction on the Strip, and the most iconic.
Those are Steve Wynn's, like it or not. And his turning out to be a bad guy (shocker!) doesn't mean that we can wash that history away and pretend it doesn't exist. Especially in Las Vegas, where all-around bad guy Bugsy Siegel is worshiped as a visionary, given statues and has restaurants named after him.
Moe Dalitz was named "Man of the Year" by several organizations for Chrissakes.
So, yeah, Sin City is going to have to figure out how to honor the legacy of yet another allegedly "bad guy". They should be used to it by now. The problem is I don't think society is going to romanticize the sexually-assaulting/rapey CEO's in future times like they romanticized the leg-breaking/shoot-em-up/cold blooded killing mobster. Mario Puzo ain't likely to write "The Executive" like he did "The Godfather".
So this is the first time that Las Vegas is going to have to come to terms with its history being written and forged by someone who is going to remain viewed in a negative light by most of the people who visit. People say they yearn for the days "when the mob was in charge" of Vegas, I don't think we'll see such yearning for "when the sexual assaulters were in charge".
That legacy is still there however, still glowing on the strip, volcano erupting, fountains putting on a show, only the pirate show at TI is no longer active.
How do you tell that story separate from the recent events and remain true, but still not leave out the bad stuff? Las Vegas is going to have to figure that out.
Their track record for doing so is not, to be generous, all that stellar in this regard.
Thursday, October 10, 2019
College Football: The Week 7 FIVE
Last week was an awful, brutal, no-good, very bad week.
Last night started the comeback when I went 3-0 for the App State vs. U La La game.
App State +3
App State ML
u70
So, that's a good start. I've got a few lines that I want to discuss for this weekend, and a couple of big games that I'm not touching but should make the viewing interesting at least.
1. Virginia (+2) @ Miami (FL) Miami has been somewhat of a disappointment this year, while Virginia has been a little bit better than the prognosticators thought. People always seem to overrate Miami's home field advantage (I adjust them down 1.5 points on the normal 3 pt scale) Virginia's only loss is by 15 to a pretty good ND team, while Miami has lost to a really good Florida team, an OK UNC team and an awful Virginia Tech team. I think Virginia pulls the upset here and I LOVE them at +2
2. Eastern Michigan (-1) @ Ball State This line opened at EMU +2 and I jumped on it. I think that's where the value was. EMU always plays close games and I think they have more physical talent than a Ball State team that's in an identity crisis. My numbers show them as a slight favorite. I think they get the mild, mild, no spice, upset here.
3. Cincinnati @ Houston o51.5 There's been a lot made about Cincinnati's defense of late, and they looked great against UCF, but Houston seems to have found something with their backup QB and removing some poison from the roster and I think you're going to see both teams score early and often. Cincinnati is a 7.5 favorite and, while I'm not enamored with that line (If anything I'd take Houston to cover) I do like the over here a LOT
4. Syracuse @ NC State u56 This week's candidate for "Conference Rock Fight" of the week, after last night's game, is this game against two teams that struggle offensively when they play good teams. The Wolfpack's offense ran up some silly numbers playing bad teams, and then came crashing to the ground against.....Florida State. I'd be surprised here if either team broke 20 on their own.
5. Mississippi State (-7) @ Tennessee This game is a "run away" game for me, but it will be interesting to see if the Vols show up to play. The Bulldogs are not a good team, they're benefiting from the SEC overate factor this year, but the Vols have been abysmal. I think they're playing for Pruitt's job on Saturday.
Red River Shootout:
Oklahoma (-10) vs. Texas (Game played in the Cotton Bowl) 75.5
This is one of the best rivalry games in the country and it's usually pretty close. Historically 10 points is a LOT of points either way, especially since we're not entirely sure what Oklahoma is, but I'll be tuning into it despite not wanting to get anywhere near the betting window for it.
Florida @ LSU -13.5 55.5
Probably the game of the week (Sorry Aggies) and a game that I just cannot see LSU winning by more than a touchdown. That said, I've been wrong about Florida almost every week this season so it's a pass for me, but this is another game I'll be watching. Death Valley in the evening is one of the better college football environments there is.
Teams in which I have a rooting interest:
UNLV @ Vanderbilt -14.5 57
I think Rebel head coach Tony Sanchez is on death watch here, and I think a Vandy blowout will just about do it for him. Freshman QB Kyle Oblad is starting, but I think Vandy is going to run them into the ground.
Michigan -22.5 @ Illinois 49
After last week's rock fight against Iowa Wolverine head coach Jim Harbaugh said he thought the offense was "hitting it's stride". They scored 10 points in that game which could mean that "It's stride" is little more than cowering in a corner peeing itself. Nothing matters for the Wolverines except for Sparty and tOSU now so let's just get this win and move on.
Good luck to you however you choose to bet, or don't bet.
Last night started the comeback when I went 3-0 for the App State vs. U La La game.
App State +3
App State ML
u70
So, that's a good start. I've got a few lines that I want to discuss for this weekend, and a couple of big games that I'm not touching but should make the viewing interesting at least.
1. Virginia (+2) @ Miami (FL) Miami has been somewhat of a disappointment this year, while Virginia has been a little bit better than the prognosticators thought. People always seem to overrate Miami's home field advantage (I adjust them down 1.5 points on the normal 3 pt scale) Virginia's only loss is by 15 to a pretty good ND team, while Miami has lost to a really good Florida team, an OK UNC team and an awful Virginia Tech team. I think Virginia pulls the upset here and I LOVE them at +2
2. Eastern Michigan (-1) @ Ball State This line opened at EMU +2 and I jumped on it. I think that's where the value was. EMU always plays close games and I think they have more physical talent than a Ball State team that's in an identity crisis. My numbers show them as a slight favorite. I think they get the mild, mild, no spice, upset here.
3. Cincinnati @ Houston o51.5 There's been a lot made about Cincinnati's defense of late, and they looked great against UCF, but Houston seems to have found something with their backup QB and removing some poison from the roster and I think you're going to see both teams score early and often. Cincinnati is a 7.5 favorite and, while I'm not enamored with that line (If anything I'd take Houston to cover) I do like the over here a LOT
4. Syracuse @ NC State u56 This week's candidate for "Conference Rock Fight" of the week, after last night's game, is this game against two teams that struggle offensively when they play good teams. The Wolfpack's offense ran up some silly numbers playing bad teams, and then came crashing to the ground against.....Florida State. I'd be surprised here if either team broke 20 on their own.
5. Mississippi State (-7) @ Tennessee This game is a "run away" game for me, but it will be interesting to see if the Vols show up to play. The Bulldogs are not a good team, they're benefiting from the SEC overate factor this year, but the Vols have been abysmal. I think they're playing for Pruitt's job on Saturday.
Red River Shootout:
Oklahoma (-10) vs. Texas (Game played in the Cotton Bowl) 75.5
This is one of the best rivalry games in the country and it's usually pretty close. Historically 10 points is a LOT of points either way, especially since we're not entirely sure what Oklahoma is, but I'll be tuning into it despite not wanting to get anywhere near the betting window for it.
Florida @ LSU -13.5 55.5
Probably the game of the week (Sorry Aggies) and a game that I just cannot see LSU winning by more than a touchdown. That said, I've been wrong about Florida almost every week this season so it's a pass for me, but this is another game I'll be watching. Death Valley in the evening is one of the better college football environments there is.
Teams in which I have a rooting interest:
UNLV @ Vanderbilt -14.5 57
I think Rebel head coach Tony Sanchez is on death watch here, and I think a Vandy blowout will just about do it for him. Freshman QB Kyle Oblad is starting, but I think Vandy is going to run them into the ground.
Michigan -22.5 @ Illinois 49
After last week's rock fight against Iowa Wolverine head coach Jim Harbaugh said he thought the offense was "hitting it's stride". They scored 10 points in that game which could mean that "It's stride" is little more than cowering in a corner peeing itself. Nothing matters for the Wolverines except for Sparty and tOSU now so let's just get this win and move on.
Good luck to you however you choose to bet, or don't bet.
Friday, October 4, 2019
Pro-Football: The NFL 3 & OUT
The NFL lines in Vegas, and other books, are notoriously tight. The new way of thinking is that not even the sharpest of bettors can make a sustained profit betting into them. Despite this, they still take a ton of public money. While I call this blog "The Public Money" that doesn't mean that I want to bet like the public. Nor do I necessarily want to bet like a "Sharp", a term in sports betting that I believe is becoming very misused.
As the legalized sports betting model matures, talking about the market is expanding at a rapid pace, with little history, or fact-checking, or even independent observations, to fact-check it. I've a feeling that there are bettors being called "sharp" who really aren't, who might have had some small-sample sized runs but who really aren't all that sharp at all.
At times, I think someone might be considered 'sharp' by a commentator because they've taken a position against "the public". A REAL sharp would understand that, many times, the public gets it right and betting with them is not all that bad of an idea. The myth that there's a "sharp" side and a "public" side to every game is just not all that accurate.
On to the games.
1. Chicago -4.5 (In London) The old adage is that if you take the favorite, you're on the "Public's side". I disagree with this. I think being "sharp" means getting the best of the line, and making a smart bet. The public is going to be all over the Bears here, but they're going to be betting them at -5.5 (currently) or even at -6.5 which is where I think the line might settle. -4.5 was available at the open, and I snagged it. I'll be surprised if the game finishes even close to this. However, if the line moves across a key there will be a decent arbitrage opportunity coming back on the Raiders.
2. Arizona Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Bengals u47. When we last saw the Bengals they were laying an offensive egg against the Steelers on MNF. Admittedly, they get in easier against the Arizona Cardinals but neither team does much in the way of scoring. Think 17-16 or something along those lines. The bottom line is these are two bad teams teeing it up on Sunday.
3. New England Patriots vs. Washington Redskins o42 - It's not that I think the Redskins can score on the Patriots, I honestly think the Patriots might cover this line on their own. Still watching though to see if it moves down any more than it currently is. If it moves up, I'm out on it and will look elsewhere.
Other games of interest:
Atlanta vs. Houston o49 - Two not very good offensive teams but the problem is what offensive strengths they have, play into the weaknesses of the other's defense. I can make a strong case for this game being a track meet, but it could also be one of the worst games of the week.
Baltimore vs. Pittsburgh u44.5 Currently I think this is a tight line that might take some money and loosen up a little oddly enough. I think the public is still in love with the Raven's offense and the Steeler's performance against Cincy might bring in the Sunday money.
Buccaneers vs. Saints o46.5 I could make a case where points are plentiful in this one. A pretty strong case.
College Football: The Week 6 FIVE
Continuing with the new format:
FIVE things I'm considering this week, or find interesting.
1. Iowa +5.5 - If you're reading this, you missed this line and I'm sorry. It's already been bet down to +3.5 as the sharps confidence in Michigan has rightly taken a nose dive. I've downgraded Michigan on offense AND defense and given Iowa's numbers I think this is a FG game, at best. You might still find some value in Iowa ML (currently at +145) but the prime opportunity in this game has been scrubbed from the market.
2. Auburn -3 Yet another "SEC game of the century" that I think is going to result in a blowout. The line has "crept" up to -3.5 and I really don't think it's going to move much further. My guess is that you'll see some people taking the hook and backing Florida. My thought is that the Gators are still overrated this year and while I do believe their current QB is an upgrade over Franks, I think Auburn has to much and wins this by a couple of TDs.
3. Vanderbilt +7.5 Currently sitting at +7, I think the Commodores have a real shot to pull an upset over Ole Miss here. The Rebels program is in deep rebuilding mode after the Freeze era, and they're just as likely to pull a stinker of a game as they are to play competently and win. I think Vandy keeps it close, with a real chance to shock some people.
4. Texas -10.5 I'm not entirely sure why this line has not moved since it opened, but I think the analysis of this game is pretty simple. The Longhorns are a much better team than West Virginia right now and I believe that the final score will reveal this.
5. Illinois +14 What attracted me to this line? While undefeated, Minnesota has not beaten a team by more than 7 points all year, not even South Dakota State. While I operate under no illusions that Illinois is good, I do think they're at least as good as SDS and should be able to keep this fairly close with a defense that can contain the Golden Gophers and an offense that could possibly even score a little.
Last week I went 2-2 on the FIVE, deciding to NOT take Arizona when the line did not move the way I thought it would. It was a middling day and I'm hoping for something much better this weekend.
One thing though, as the season matures and the books get tighter and tighter with their lines, I'll probably be moving to totals almost exclusively soon. I still think there are cases where the books just spit the bit a little, especially with the smaller teams, but often at the middle-to-bottom of the Power 5 conferences as you see today.
For the NFL I'm (almost) ALL totals now, which you'll see in an upcoming post.
Good luck however you wager the games, I have nothing on board for the two games this evening, nor did I have anything on the two last night.
FIVE things I'm considering this week, or find interesting.
1. Iowa +5.5 - If you're reading this, you missed this line and I'm sorry. It's already been bet down to +3.5 as the sharps confidence in Michigan has rightly taken a nose dive. I've downgraded Michigan on offense AND defense and given Iowa's numbers I think this is a FG game, at best. You might still find some value in Iowa ML (currently at +145) but the prime opportunity in this game has been scrubbed from the market.
2. Auburn -3 Yet another "SEC game of the century" that I think is going to result in a blowout. The line has "crept" up to -3.5 and I really don't think it's going to move much further. My guess is that you'll see some people taking the hook and backing Florida. My thought is that the Gators are still overrated this year and while I do believe their current QB is an upgrade over Franks, I think Auburn has to much and wins this by a couple of TDs.
3. Vanderbilt +7.5 Currently sitting at +7, I think the Commodores have a real shot to pull an upset over Ole Miss here. The Rebels program is in deep rebuilding mode after the Freeze era, and they're just as likely to pull a stinker of a game as they are to play competently and win. I think Vandy keeps it close, with a real chance to shock some people.
4. Texas -10.5 I'm not entirely sure why this line has not moved since it opened, but I think the analysis of this game is pretty simple. The Longhorns are a much better team than West Virginia right now and I believe that the final score will reveal this.
5. Illinois +14 What attracted me to this line? While undefeated, Minnesota has not beaten a team by more than 7 points all year, not even South Dakota State. While I operate under no illusions that Illinois is good, I do think they're at least as good as SDS and should be able to keep this fairly close with a defense that can contain the Golden Gophers and an offense that could possibly even score a little.
Last week I went 2-2 on the FIVE, deciding to NOT take Arizona when the line did not move the way I thought it would. It was a middling day and I'm hoping for something much better this weekend.
One thing though, as the season matures and the books get tighter and tighter with their lines, I'll probably be moving to totals almost exclusively soon. I still think there are cases where the books just spit the bit a little, especially with the smaller teams, but often at the middle-to-bottom of the Power 5 conferences as you see today.
For the NFL I'm (almost) ALL totals now, which you'll see in an upcoming post.
Good luck however you wager the games, I have nothing on board for the two games this evening, nor did I have anything on the two last night.
Wednesday, October 2, 2019
Planning a Vegas Trip: What stays, what goes?
It's always a problem.
Mrs. TPM and I have a Vegas trip coming fairly soon, and we're already having the problem of trying to fit too much into too small of a time frame.
Details: We're planning for 5 nights, 6 days which includes a hotel transfer after night 2 to another location, on the other side of town. We'll be checking in to Golden Gate on Wednesday, and then moving to Silverton on Friday until we leave on Monday, late afternoon.
Usually this is pretty easy, we've done it a Million times before, albeit usually our movement is from either Downtown to the Strip or, more likely, from the Strip to Downtown. Given that I've all but abandoned the Las Vegas Strip, except for The Cosmopolitan, Venetian, and TI, the logistics of this trip are slightly different.
Plans: We have several, including:
1. Play at Golden Gate and The D
2. Play Video Poker at 4 Queens
3. Plat slots and Video Poker at El Cortez
4. Eat at The Smashed Pig
5. Eat at Grotto
6. Eat at Evel Pie
7. Visit Oak & Ivy to try their new Fall Cocktail menu
8. Visit the new "Whiskey Liquor Up!" bar (???)
9. Go to the SDSU/UNLV college football game on Saturday evening/
10. Spend Saturday at a sports book.
11. Visit the Conservatory at Bellagio
12. See the Bellagio Fountains
13. Get some play in at The Cosmopolitan
14. Watch the Vegas Golden Knights play on Friday
15. Visit Crown & Anchor
16. Watch the Golden Knights play at Born and Raised on Sunday
17. Watch the NFL Sunday at a Sports book
18. Visit South Point
19. Visit M Resort
20. Have Bloody Mary's at the Venetian
21. The Hog & 2Cent Group Pull
Tentatively. our plans are as follows.
Wednesday Night: (We arrive in Vegas at 2:00(ish) PM)
We'll take our limo to the Golden Gate, get checked in, and immediately go out and grab a bite at the BBQ Project Food truck. I might also grab some coneys at All American Coney, before we head out toplay VP at The Long Bar, 4 Queens, and probably El Cortez before heading over to Oak & Ivy prior to swinging by Downtown Grand on the way back, before finishing the night at Golden Gate.
Thursday:
Tentative plans are for this to be our Strip day. Prior to that, we'll have lunch at Grotto and then we'll head first to the new Sahara and the STRAT to take advantage of some free play and birthday deals, then over to Bellagio to see the Conservatory. After that we'll stop and grab tacos and secret pizza at Cosmo. We'll then watch the Thursday Night College and Pro football games at the Cosmo Sports Book while I'm playing VP. We'll play some slots, and then head back to downtown to finish the night with the Hog & 2Cent group pull and more VP at the Long Bar at the D and Golden Gate
Friday:
Here's where some things are going to have to go. We considered scheduling our limo ride for 1PM from Golden Gate to Silverton, before heading over to Crown & Anchor to watch the Knights play Colorado. Unfortunately, that's not going to work. So we've rescheduled our limo to 2:30, which will allow us to stop by Evel Pie before hand, and will also allow the limo driver to stop by the Bellagio Fountains so we can see them. Once we get to Silverton we'll go watch the end of the Knights game at one of their bars. Then we might head over to M Resort and possibly grab dinner at the Italian joint there.
Saturday:
The plan is to still watch College Football at a Sports Book, but we might go over to Green Valley Ranch to do so before heading to Sam Boyd Stadium around 6:30 for a 7:30 kick-off. We've never been to Sam Boyd, so this will be both our first and last time visiting. After that we'll get a ride back to Silverton where we'll spend the rest of the evening playing slots and video poker.
Sunday:
The original plan was to visit South Point for NFL football, and we still might, but given how packed it gets we might divert over to M Resort before going to Born and Raised to watch the Golden Knights play on Sunday. Ourside of Born and Raised, food plans on this day are iffy, but we'll figure it out.
Monday:
The bittersweet leaving day. Our car will come at 2:00PM so we'll spend the morning having Bloody Mary and Starbuck's therapy at Silverton, grab some lunch from there, and then head out to fly from home.
Due to work schedules and other issues, this will be our last Vegas trip of the year, and will probably be the last one for at least six months. I doubt we go back again until Mid-April of 2020, if then. So it's going to be a while before we visit the Venetian, I get a Scotched egg from Crown & Anchor, and several of the things we WANT to do we're just not going to have the chance TO DO.
Such is life on a Vegas trip. There are so many things to see and do that you have to pick and choose them as you go along.
Mrs. TPM and I have a Vegas trip coming fairly soon, and we're already having the problem of trying to fit too much into too small of a time frame.
Details: We're planning for 5 nights, 6 days which includes a hotel transfer after night 2 to another location, on the other side of town. We'll be checking in to Golden Gate on Wednesday, and then moving to Silverton on Friday until we leave on Monday, late afternoon.
Usually this is pretty easy, we've done it a Million times before, albeit usually our movement is from either Downtown to the Strip or, more likely, from the Strip to Downtown. Given that I've all but abandoned the Las Vegas Strip, except for The Cosmopolitan, Venetian, and TI, the logistics of this trip are slightly different.
Plans: We have several, including:
1. Play at Golden Gate and The D
2. Play Video Poker at 4 Queens
3. Plat slots and Video Poker at El Cortez
4. Eat at The Smashed Pig
5. Eat at Grotto
6. Eat at Evel Pie
7. Visit Oak & Ivy to try their new Fall Cocktail menu
9. Go to the SDSU/UNLV college football game on Saturday evening/
10. Spend Saturday at a sports book.
11. Visit the Conservatory at Bellagio
12. See the Bellagio Fountains
13. Get some play in at The Cosmopolitan
1
16. Watch the Golden Knights play at Born and Raised on Sunday
17. Watch the NFL Sunday at a Sports book
19. Visit M Resort
21. The Hog & 2Cent Group Pull
Tentatively. our plans are as follows.
Wednesday Night: (We arrive in Vegas at 2:00(ish) PM)
We'll take our limo to the Golden Gate, get checked in, and immediately go out and grab a bite at the BBQ Project Food truck. I might also grab some coneys at All American Coney, before we head out toplay VP at The Long Bar, 4 Queens, and probably El Cortez before heading over to Oak & Ivy prior to swinging by Downtown Grand on the way back, before finishing the night at Golden Gate.
Thursday:
Tentative plans are for this to be our Strip day. Prior to that, we'll have lunch at Grotto and then we'll head first to the new Sahara and the STRAT to take advantage of some free play and birthday deals, then over to Bellagio to see the Conservatory. After that we'll stop and grab tacos and secret pizza at Cosmo. We'll then watch the Thursday Night College and Pro football games at the Cosmo Sports Book while I'm playing VP. We'll play some slots, and then head back to downtown to finish the night with the Hog & 2Cent group pull and more VP at the Long Bar at the D and Golden Gate
Friday:
Here's where some things are going to have to go. We considered scheduling our limo ride for 1PM from Golden Gate to Silverton, before heading over to Crown & Anchor to watch the Knights play Colorado. Unfortunately, that's not going to work. So we've rescheduled our limo to 2:30, which will allow us to stop by Evel Pie before hand, and will also allow the limo driver to stop by the Bellagio Fountains so we can see them. Once we get to Silverton we'll go watch the end of the Knights game at one of their bars. Then we might head over to M Resort and possibly grab dinner at the Italian joint there.
Saturday:
The plan is to still watch College Football at a Sports Book, but we might go over to Green Valley Ranch to do so before heading to Sam Boyd Stadium around 6:30 for a 7:30 kick-off. We've never been to Sam Boyd, so this will be both our first and last time visiting. After that we'll get a ride back to Silverton where we'll spend the rest of the evening playing slots and video poker.
Sunday:
The original plan was to visit South Point for NFL football, and we still might, but given how packed it gets we might divert over to M Resort before going to Born and Raised to watch the Golden Knights play on Sunday. Ourside of Born and Raised, food plans on this day are iffy, but we'll figure it out.
Monday:
The bittersweet leaving day. Our car will come at 2:00PM so we'll spend the morning having Bloody Mary and Starbuck's therapy at Silverton, grab some lunch from there, and then head out to fly from home.
Due to work schedules and other issues, this will be our last Vegas trip of the year, and will probably be the last one for at least six months. I doubt we go back again until Mid-April of 2020, if then. So it's going to be a while before we visit the Venetian, I get a Scotched egg from Crown & Anchor, and several of the things we WANT to do we're just not going to have the chance TO DO.
Such is life on a Vegas trip. There are so many things to see and do that you have to pick and choose them as you go along.
Wednesday, September 25, 2019
Casino Game Shaming: It's Time for This to Die.
In the final analysis, gambling, is a losing proposition on almost every game in the casino. Yes, there are some games where, if you spend the time developing your skill, you might be able to squeak out a .5% advantage over the house (counting cards in blackjack for example) or, you MIGHT be able to find a "full-pay" video poker machine that provides you with a less than 1% edge if played PERFECTLY. You might even be an above-average poker player who sits down to a table and has an edge over suckers, or a "sharp" sports bettor who has a solid algorithm.
You might.
Each of these things takes many hours of practice and no small amount of skill. Hours and mathematical skill that, quite frankly, not all of us possess.
For the average gambler, in any given casino, the hard facts are this:
You're playing a negative expectation game and your money is really a fee for entertainment. In the long run, you're going to lose. They don't build these casinos on the backs of winning gamblers after all. Going broke owning a casino is more an example of horrible business acumen than it is a sustained run of bad luck. Winning in a casino is mostly luck. (and a little math)
That being said, your goals on any gambling trip should be:
1. To have fun.
2. To make your bank roll last for you to have more fun.
With that in mind, let's talk about the return of an old gambling trend that needs to die out immediately: Game shaming.
You see it pop up on gambling forums, Twitter (where everything bad seems to metastasize) and other various forms of social media.
Take a picture of you making a side bet on BlackJack? Shame on you. There will be legions of comments, twitsponses and "experts" telling you this was a bad bet.
Video yourself playing video poker and you make an incorrect hold? Jerk. You will be told that you suck at gambling and you should never play again.
Play the Big 6 Wheel because you enjoy it? "You realize that game has the worst odds in the casino right?"
The fact that there are bad games in any casino should not surprise you. Triple Zero Roulette anyone? What should surprise you is that there has developed legions of "fun police" whose sole job it is to scour the Internet for people playing games, making bets, or holding cards with which they do not approve and actively scolding them for it.
And, you know what? It's time for this to stop.
The first (and most important) reason is this: When people scold you for playing bad games what they're really saying is that you don't like the things they do and that makes them angry.
The money you are putting down on a table, or playing in a machine, is YOUR money, not theirs. If they don't want to play those games or make those bets then let them do it with their money, not yours.
If you want to make the side-bet on blackjack, then make the damn side-bet on blackjack. If you want to play $20 on the Big 6 wheel, then play $20 on the Big 6 wheel. As long as you know the odds and understand the holds involved, then have at it. If other people don't like it then they're free to play the games they do like on their own dime.
I've been guilty of this. Specifically, calling out people for playing a bad pay-table on VP. But, after thinking about it, I've stopped doing that. Because sometimes you just play the pay-table that's available, and you live with it. If you get lucky and hit 4OAK then it really doesn't matter if the pay-table is 9/6 DDB, 9/5 DDB, 8/5 DDB or even 7/5 DDB (which is ALL OVER the Las Vegas Strip at the quarter level.)
What matters is that you're having fun.
This doesn't mean that I won't TELL people the correct hold, or talk to them about pay tables, IF ASKED. Of course I will. But if they don't want to know then I don't want to tell them. I congratulate them on their win, or having fun, and I move on.
I LOATHE 3-zero Roulette and would never play it myself. I feel the same way about 6:5 Blackjack. But I've NEVER chided someone in person, or online, for playing the same.
And neither should you.
It's OK to call out casinos when they put these awful games on the floor. The 4Queens casino, which I like and enjoy playing at, got rightly roasted online when they installed a 3-zero Roulette machine and advertised it as "giving the players more chances to win". You SHOULD call out a casino every time they make the odds worse. If you care about those things you should refuse to play the games. I, for one, will not play 6:5 blackjack and I'll inform the casinos, in person and on-line, that I won't.
But what I won't do is call out individual players for playing these games. Especially if they'r having fun.
Because gambling should be FUN. Unless you're a pro, and that's a different matter altogether.
You might.
Each of these things takes many hours of practice and no small amount of skill. Hours and mathematical skill that, quite frankly, not all of us possess.
For the average gambler, in any given casino, the hard facts are this:
You're playing a negative expectation game and your money is really a fee for entertainment. In the long run, you're going to lose. They don't build these casinos on the backs of winning gamblers after all. Going broke owning a casino is more an example of horrible business acumen than it is a sustained run of bad luck. Winning in a casino is mostly luck. (and a little math)
That being said, your goals on any gambling trip should be:
1. To have fun.
2. To make your bank roll last for you to have more fun.
With that in mind, let's talk about the return of an old gambling trend that needs to die out immediately: Game shaming.
You see it pop up on gambling forums, Twitter (where everything bad seems to metastasize) and other various forms of social media.
Take a picture of you making a side bet on BlackJack? Shame on you. There will be legions of comments, twitsponses and "experts" telling you this was a bad bet.
Video yourself playing video poker and you make an incorrect hold? Jerk. You will be told that you suck at gambling and you should never play again.
Play the Big 6 Wheel because you enjoy it? "You realize that game has the worst odds in the casino right?"
The fact that there are bad games in any casino should not surprise you. Triple Zero Roulette anyone? What should surprise you is that there has developed legions of "fun police" whose sole job it is to scour the Internet for people playing games, making bets, or holding cards with which they do not approve and actively scolding them for it.
And, you know what? It's time for this to stop.
The first (and most important) reason is this: When people scold you for playing bad games what they're really saying is that you don't like the things they do and that makes them angry.
The money you are putting down on a table, or playing in a machine, is YOUR money, not theirs. If they don't want to play those games or make those bets then let them do it with their money, not yours.
If you want to make the side-bet on blackjack, then make the damn side-bet on blackjack. If you want to play $20 on the Big 6 wheel, then play $20 on the Big 6 wheel. As long as you know the odds and understand the holds involved, then have at it. If other people don't like it then they're free to play the games they do like on their own dime.
I've been guilty of this. Specifically, calling out people for playing a bad pay-table on VP. But, after thinking about it, I've stopped doing that. Because sometimes you just play the pay-table that's available, and you live with it. If you get lucky and hit 4OAK then it really doesn't matter if the pay-table is 9/6 DDB, 9/5 DDB, 8/5 DDB or even 7/5 DDB (which is ALL OVER the Las Vegas Strip at the quarter level.)
What matters is that you're having fun.
This doesn't mean that I won't TELL people the correct hold, or talk to them about pay tables, IF ASKED. Of course I will. But if they don't want to know then I don't want to tell them. I congratulate them on their win, or having fun, and I move on.
I LOATHE 3-zero Roulette and would never play it myself. I feel the same way about 6:5 Blackjack. But I've NEVER chided someone in person, or online, for playing the same.
And neither should you.
It's OK to call out casinos when they put these awful games on the floor. The 4Queens casino, which I like and enjoy playing at, got rightly roasted online when they installed a 3-zero Roulette machine and advertised it as "giving the players more chances to win". You SHOULD call out a casino every time they make the odds worse. If you care about those things you should refuse to play the games. I, for one, will not play 6:5 blackjack and I'll inform the casinos, in person and on-line, that I won't.
But what I won't do is call out individual players for playing these games. Especially if they'r having fun.
Because gambling should be FUN. Unless you're a pro, and that's a different matter altogether.
College Football: A Different Approach to the Week 4 FIVE
After continuing the FIVE for the first few weeks I've realized that I don't have the time this year to track and play and handicap FIVE games in addition to whatever it is I decide to play.
So, I'm not going to do that any longer. Despite the fact that I was doing pretty good this year.
What I AM going to do is analyze a few games and talk about numbers where I'm considering pulling the trigger, or discussing game where there was opportunity that may now be missed, and explain when you could have gotten the line, and why so many probably missed it. I'll also discuss games where it might be wise to wait just a minute to see if something better becomes available.
So, without further ado:
FIVE Games for your consideration.
1. Houston @ North Texas (Opened at North Texas +2.5) - The second this line opened it dropped to North Texas +2, then North Texas +1. Then the bottom fell out. Houston QB D'Eriq King announced his red-shirt decision for the remainder of the year and the line immediately closed and re-opened at N. Texas -6. It's now all the way to -7.5. Here's the deal though.
Running the numbers I LIKED N. Texas as a home dog over UH even BEFORE the King announcement, and the feeling that UH is shutting it down this year. You could have grabbed them at +2 very easily if you'd been paying attention to lines on Sunday when they opened. Sadly, that ship has sailed.
There MIGHT be some small value at -6.5 if money starts coming in on the Cougars, but I doubt it. My guess now is that UNT kicks off somewhere in the range of -8.5 to -9.5.
2. Akron @ UMass (Opened at Akron -6) - This was a "blink and you missed it" opportunity as the line opened at -6, and then after the first round of betting slid to -5, before settling in at -7. If you were paying attention on Sunday however there was a decent opportunity to grab Akron at -5.
This is going to be a terrible game between two of the worst two teams in football. Here's the catch, UMass might be worse than anyone else by a long-ways, and Akron, albeit not good, has shown some signs of improvement. They at least displayed signs of a pulse against UAB and Central Michigan, before getting rolled by a good Troy team last week. UMass has shown nothing so far.
3. Cincinnati @ Marshall (Game opened at Cincinnati -2.5) - IF you could have bet into this game at the line opening -2.5 was outstanding value. It's currently sitting around -3.5 to -4 and I believe the value is gone. The last value play was -3, and if it dips down to that number I'd try and grab it. Cincinnati is a very good AAC team while Marshall is just a "good" AAC team. Being on the road will negate Cincy's edge some, but I still think they win and win easy.
This is another case where paying attention to next Saturday's college lines on Sunday might pay some dividends.
4. Ohio State @ Nebraska (Line opened at Ohio State -7) - Once this line opened, bettors had a feeding frenzy until they beat it up to -18. If you could get -7 (doubtful) as a recreational bettor then you're onto something, but I think there was value to be found here all the way up to -13.5, which you COULD get on Sunday.
That said, the line is still moving toward Ohio State so it's likely that the money is piling on the Buckeyes. This game should become an arbitrage opportunity if it continues to move the Buckeyes way, and it could be HUGE if it lands in the middle.
5. UCLA @ Arizona (Line opened at Arizona -7.5) - Here's a case where, if you like Arizona, it might pay dividends to wait. The current line is Arizona -7 but after last week's upset of Washington State the public seems to really like the Bruins here.
I can see this line dropping to Arizona -6 or -6.5 before kick-off and that would be a move across a key number that you could possibly want to take advantage of. Now, granted, there are risks with this strategy. For one, it's hard to tell if what we saw last week from UCLA was fool's gold and it's still unclear just how good Arizona really is. If you like UCLA you might have missed your value window however, so it's probably best to just watch the one play.
Profitable sports betting is HARD. Very few people can do it. Most people come in, take a look at the board and bet on games that 'feel' right. It's a very different thing to update the numbers, run your algorithms and fire based on that. The good news is, there are people out there doing that number crunching for you if you're not willing to create one yourself.
I wouldn't advise paying a tout, in most cases they're no better than random luck, but I would suggest you go out and try to find whatever it is you can to try and give you the biggest edge possible. Believe it or not, there are some very good bettors out there offering up selected picks for free. Pick about 5 of those and you have a week made with no additional expense.
Whatever you do, don't tail me. But I've told you that before.
Good luck in whatever you play.
So, I'm not going to do that any longer. Despite the fact that I was doing pretty good this year.
What I AM going to do is analyze a few games and talk about numbers where I'm considering pulling the trigger, or discussing game where there was opportunity that may now be missed, and explain when you could have gotten the line, and why so many probably missed it. I'll also discuss games where it might be wise to wait just a minute to see if something better becomes available.
So, without further ado:
FIVE Games for your consideration.
1. Houston @ North Texas (Opened at North Texas +2.5) - The second this line opened it dropped to North Texas +2, then North Texas +1. Then the bottom fell out. Houston QB D'Eriq King announced his red-shirt decision for the remainder of the year and the line immediately closed and re-opened at N. Texas -6. It's now all the way to -7.5. Here's the deal though.
Running the numbers I LIKED N. Texas as a home dog over UH even BEFORE the King announcement, and the feeling that UH is shutting it down this year. You could have grabbed them at +2 very easily if you'd been paying attention to lines on Sunday when they opened. Sadly, that ship has sailed.
There MIGHT be some small value at -6.5 if money starts coming in on the Cougars, but I doubt it. My guess now is that UNT kicks off somewhere in the range of -8.5 to -9.5.
2. Akron @ UMass (Opened at Akron -6) - This was a "blink and you missed it" opportunity as the line opened at -6, and then after the first round of betting slid to -5, before settling in at -7. If you were paying attention on Sunday however there was a decent opportunity to grab Akron at -5.
This is going to be a terrible game between two of the worst two teams in football. Here's the catch, UMass might be worse than anyone else by a long-ways, and Akron, albeit not good, has shown some signs of improvement. They at least displayed signs of a pulse against UAB and Central Michigan, before getting rolled by a good Troy team last week. UMass has shown nothing so far.
3. Cincinnati @ Marshall (Game opened at Cincinnati -2.5) - IF you could have bet into this game at the line opening -2.5 was outstanding value. It's currently sitting around -3.5 to -4 and I believe the value is gone. The last value play was -3, and if it dips down to that number I'd try and grab it. Cincinnati is a very good AAC team while Marshall is just a "good" AAC team. Being on the road will negate Cincy's edge some, but I still think they win and win easy.
This is another case where paying attention to next Saturday's college lines on Sunday might pay some dividends.
4. Ohio State @ Nebraska (Line opened at Ohio State -7) - Once this line opened, bettors had a feeding frenzy until they beat it up to -18. If you could get -7 (doubtful) as a recreational bettor then you're onto something, but I think there was value to be found here all the way up to -13.5, which you COULD get on Sunday.
That said, the line is still moving toward Ohio State so it's likely that the money is piling on the Buckeyes. This game should become an arbitrage opportunity if it continues to move the Buckeyes way, and it could be HUGE if it lands in the middle.
5. UCLA @ Arizona (Line opened at Arizona -7.5) - Here's a case where, if you like Arizona, it might pay dividends to wait. The current line is Arizona -7 but after last week's upset of Washington State the public seems to really like the Bruins here.
I can see this line dropping to Arizona -6 or -6.5 before kick-off and that would be a move across a key number that you could possibly want to take advantage of. Now, granted, there are risks with this strategy. For one, it's hard to tell if what we saw last week from UCLA was fool's gold and it's still unclear just how good Arizona really is. If you like UCLA you might have missed your value window however, so it's probably best to just watch the one play.
Profitable sports betting is HARD. Very few people can do it. Most people come in, take a look at the board and bet on games that 'feel' right. It's a very different thing to update the numbers, run your algorithms and fire based on that. The good news is, there are people out there doing that number crunching for you if you're not willing to create one yourself.
I wouldn't advise paying a tout, in most cases they're no better than random luck, but I would suggest you go out and try to find whatever it is you can to try and give you the biggest edge possible. Believe it or not, there are some very good bettors out there offering up selected picks for free. Pick about 5 of those and you have a week made with no additional expense.
Whatever you do, don't tail me. But I've told you that before.
Good luck in whatever you play.
Monday, September 16, 2019
College and NFL Football Break
After going 2-3 in my FIVE and 1-2 in my NFL 3 & OUT last week I'm forced to take a week off from doing picks due to business travel. I won't have time to properly run the numbers and analyze the games.
I MIGHT be able to provide some thoughts on the games, possibly on Wednesday, but won't be able to handicap.
So, enjoy the games next weekend. See you the week afterwards.
I MIGHT be able to provide some thoughts on the games, possibly on Wednesday, but won't be able to handicap.
So, enjoy the games next weekend. See you the week afterwards.
Thursday, September 12, 2019
Closing the Door on my Horse Race Betting Hobby
Or...why I quit worrying and learned to avoid the track.
The revelation, in the New York Times, that Justify failed a drug test during the Santa Anita Derby which would have denied him the points to enter the Kentucky Derby (which he won, leading to an eventual Triple Crown), isn't what's leading me to abandon betting on a sport that I once loved.
Nor is it the fact that several horses die due to injuries every year.
Nope, what's causing me to abandon the sport is that it's becoming increasingly clear that it's a rigged game. That the government agencies in charge of the sport are willingly rigging it in favor of bigger named trainers, owners, breeders and jockeys.
My fall-out began last year in the Kentucky Derby, and it's come to a nadir with this story. This is on top of all the troubling recent news about increased take-out and several industry "influencers" stating that betting is not an integral part of horse racing and that bettors aren't really needed.
OK then, we're going to test that theory because I'm done. Finished. The last bet that I placed on a horse race IS the last bet I will ever place on a horse race. Because I cannot in good conscious bet into a game that's rigged against me, and that doesn't value my money, time and investment.
Strangely enough, this will also affect several other decisions in my sports life.
1. I'm getting rid of the increasingly terrible U-Verse TV service. Pretty much the ONLY reason I kept them was to keep up with goings-on on TVG. Now that I don't need that service any longer, hail and farewell, hello streaming.
2. I've probably spent my last dollar at Sam Houston Race Park. This is the hardest choice because I really liked going there. But going there and not betting seems silly and pretty much a waste of time.
3. Since I'm not betting on races I probably won't even WATCH the races.
It's not that there aren't other, less problematic, areas to scratch the sports-betting itch, even in notoriously betting unfriendly (and backwards) Texas. All of them better than betting on a game that's become hopelessly corrupt, extremely backward and, in most cases, unprofitable due to the manipulation of tote boards on the "last tick" before the races go off.
So, Good Bye horse racing, I truly hope you can dust yourself off and turn yourself around and become a viable gaming option again, but I doubt it. Because the people in charge, and the media covering you, have become just as corrupt and untrustworthy as every other government or media agency.
It's all Fake News now, no matter which side you're on.
At least I'll always have Afleet Alex in the Preakness, and War Emblem and especially Secretariat.
I'll keep those memories.
The revelation, in the New York Times, that Justify failed a drug test during the Santa Anita Derby which would have denied him the points to enter the Kentucky Derby (which he won, leading to an eventual Triple Crown), isn't what's leading me to abandon betting on a sport that I once loved.
Nor is it the fact that several horses die due to injuries every year.
Nope, what's causing me to abandon the sport is that it's becoming increasingly clear that it's a rigged game. That the government agencies in charge of the sport are willingly rigging it in favor of bigger named trainers, owners, breeders and jockeys.
My fall-out began last year in the Kentucky Derby, and it's come to a nadir with this story. This is on top of all the troubling recent news about increased take-out and several industry "influencers" stating that betting is not an integral part of horse racing and that bettors aren't really needed.
OK then, we're going to test that theory because I'm done. Finished. The last bet that I placed on a horse race IS the last bet I will ever place on a horse race. Because I cannot in good conscious bet into a game that's rigged against me, and that doesn't value my money, time and investment.
Strangely enough, this will also affect several other decisions in my sports life.
1. I'm getting rid of the increasingly terrible U-Verse TV service. Pretty much the ONLY reason I kept them was to keep up with goings-on on TVG. Now that I don't need that service any longer, hail and farewell, hello streaming.
2. I've probably spent my last dollar at Sam Houston Race Park. This is the hardest choice because I really liked going there. But going there and not betting seems silly and pretty much a waste of time.
3. Since I'm not betting on races I probably won't even WATCH the races.
It's not that there aren't other, less problematic, areas to scratch the sports-betting itch, even in notoriously betting unfriendly (and backwards) Texas. All of them better than betting on a game that's become hopelessly corrupt, extremely backward and, in most cases, unprofitable due to the manipulation of tote boards on the "last tick" before the races go off.
So, Good Bye horse racing, I truly hope you can dust yourself off and turn yourself around and become a viable gaming option again, but I doubt it. Because the people in charge, and the media covering you, have become just as corrupt and untrustworthy as every other government or media agency.
It's all Fake News now, no matter which side you're on.
At least I'll always have Afleet Alex in the Preakness, and War Emblem and especially Secretariat.
I'll keep those memories.
NFL Week 2: The Debut 3 & OUT
Last week I did not complete an NFL post because of lack of time (and interest, on my part). I had a couple of personal plays (San Fran, New Orleans) and I went 1-1. This week I'm bringing back the NFL 3 & OUT for your comedy pleasure.
Let's get right to the games...
1. Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5) @ Detroit [-145 & +125 {O/U 47.5}
I'm not a believer in Matt Patricia as an NFL head coach. While I do think the Lions have some talent, I also think that the Chargers are the much better team here. I will say that I've warned people I could be wrong on the Lions so take that into consideration.
Prediction: Chargers 27 Lions 13 LA Chargers to COVER -2.5
2. Seattle @ Pittsburgh (-4) [+175 -200] {O/U 46.5}
While I'm not ready to count the Steelers out after they got throttled in Foxboro, I do think this front of the schedule is brutal, and I think Seattle has a team that's going to cause a ruckus in the NFC this season. The add of JD Clowney to the defense makes them formidable.
Prediction: Seattle 24 Pittsburgh 20 Seattle to WIN on the ML
3. Chicago (-2.5) @ Denver [-150 & +130] {O/U 40.5}
I did not need week 1 to tell me that Joe Flacco was not a good QB. I'm expecting Khalil Mack to feast against this O-Line. What did surprise me was just how bad Denver's defense played last week. Also, Mitchell Trubisky is exactly the QB I thought he would be.
Prediction: Chicago 24 Denver 7 Chicago to COVER -2.5
Going for it on 4th Down.
Jacksonville @ Houston (-9)
As I've stated online, one of my season tasks is to fad the Texans each week and track the results. Last week I picked New Orleans to cover and now I'm down one unit on this. So this week we select Jacksonville to cover +9 and we'll see how it goes.
Enjoy the games however you play, or even if you don't play.
Let's get right to the games...
1. Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5) @ Detroit [-145 & +125 {O/U 47.5}
I'm not a believer in Matt Patricia as an NFL head coach. While I do think the Lions have some talent, I also think that the Chargers are the much better team here. I will say that I've warned people I could be wrong on the Lions so take that into consideration.
Prediction: Chargers 27 Lions 13 LA Chargers to COVER -2.5
2. Seattle @ Pittsburgh (-4) [+175 -200] {O/U 46.5}
While I'm not ready to count the Steelers out after they got throttled in Foxboro, I do think this front of the schedule is brutal, and I think Seattle has a team that's going to cause a ruckus in the NFC this season. The add of JD Clowney to the defense makes them formidable.
Prediction: Seattle 24 Pittsburgh 20 Seattle to WIN on the ML
3. Chicago (-2.5) @ Denver [-150 & +130] {O/U 40.5}
I did not need week 1 to tell me that Joe Flacco was not a good QB. I'm expecting Khalil Mack to feast against this O-Line. What did surprise me was just how bad Denver's defense played last week. Also, Mitchell Trubisky is exactly the QB I thought he would be.
Prediction: Chicago 24 Denver 7 Chicago to COVER -2.5
Going for it on 4th Down.
Jacksonville @ Houston (-9)
As I've stated online, one of my season tasks is to fad the Texans each week and track the results. Last week I picked New Orleans to cover and now I'm down one unit on this. So this week we select Jacksonville to cover +9 and we'll see how it goes.
Enjoy the games however you play, or even if you don't play.
College Football: The Week 3 FIVE
Last week was a good week at TPM central. The FIVE went 4-1, and would have gone 5-0 had Mark Stoops had an ounce of sportsmanship in his body. Instead, he had his offense throw a TD pass up 14 points with :59 seconds left to go in the game, ruining the +15.5 cover.
I hope Kentucky doesn't win another game this season.
But, that said, on to the next week, one of the worst "on paper" matchup weeks of the season FWIW. This COULD mean that we're in for a big dallop of chaos theory, or.....
The Week 3 FIVE:
1. Washington State (-9) vs. Houston [-340 & +280] {O/U 74}
This game is being played at NRG Stadium, so while it's not really a home game for Houston it is played in Houston. This helps the Coogs but probably does not detract from the Cougs as much as many people think. The home field advantage is pretty strong for Houston in the Tillman, not so much at NRG, where the overall size, and acoustics, make the crowd seem quieter. I like Wazzu here, but not enough to give them the nod. I think the play in this game is on the number.
Predication: Wazzu 52 Houston 40 OVER 74
2. Kansas State @ Mississippi State (-8) [+260 & -330] {O/U 52}
IF Bill Snyder was still the coach of K-State I'd give them a serious look, but this is now Chris Klieman's team and I'm not sure whether the shock of not being at North Dakota State has fully enveloped him or not. I think the Bulldogs are good, and have the potential to be very good. We're gong to see a little bit rather I'm correct on that assumption here.
Prediction: Kansas State 7 Mississippi State 24 MSU to COVER -8 (I also like the UNDER here but that's not a FIVE pick)
3. Georgia State @ Western Michigan (-8.5) [+260 & -330] {O/U 69.5}
One thing I like about funny week 1 results is that they can cause some weird line ripple effects that, while diminishing over time, don't really go away until the end of the season because the public can't quite get that huge upset fully out of their minds. I think this is the case here based on my analytics.
Prediction: Georgia State 10 Western Michigan 42 Western Michigan to cover -8.5
4. TCU (-2.5) @ Purdue [-145 +125] {O/U 51.5]
This is one of those games that you initially look at and say "pass" until you start forgetting all of your pre-conceived notions from the past on these two teams and just evaluate them in the moment. My numbers say the line is about right, but I'm looking at the total here. I think it's low.
Prediction: TCU 38 Purdue 42 OVER 51.5
5. Hawai'i @ Washington (-21.5) [+1000 & -2000] {O/U 58.5}
Another case where I hate the number, although there could be some Hawai'i value there, and focus instead on the number. Yes, Washington has a good defense but no one has fully stopped the Rainbow Warrior's Run N' Shoot yet. Love the Over here.
Prediction: Hawai'i 28 Washington 42 OVER 58.5
Again, there are no marquee games this weekend, unless you want to factor in El Assico, which I do, and the pre-game lines are slim pickens. That said, stay alert, because there might be in game opportunities materialize, especially on the numbers.
Good luck however you play.
I hope Kentucky doesn't win another game this season.
But, that said, on to the next week, one of the worst "on paper" matchup weeks of the season FWIW. This COULD mean that we're in for a big dallop of chaos theory, or.....
The Week 3 FIVE:
1. Washington State (-9) vs. Houston [-340 & +280] {O/U 74}
This game is being played at NRG Stadium, so while it's not really a home game for Houston it is played in Houston. This helps the Coogs but probably does not detract from the Cougs as much as many people think. The home field advantage is pretty strong for Houston in the Tillman, not so much at NRG, where the overall size, and acoustics, make the crowd seem quieter. I like Wazzu here, but not enough to give them the nod. I think the play in this game is on the number.
Predication: Wazzu 52 Houston 40 OVER 74
2. Kansas State @ Mississippi State (-8) [+260 & -330] {O/U 52}
IF Bill Snyder was still the coach of K-State I'd give them a serious look, but this is now Chris Klieman's team and I'm not sure whether the shock of not being at North Dakota State has fully enveloped him or not. I think the Bulldogs are good, and have the potential to be very good. We're gong to see a little bit rather I'm correct on that assumption here.
Prediction: Kansas State 7 Mississippi State 24 MSU to COVER -8 (I also like the UNDER here but that's not a FIVE pick)
3. Georgia State @ Western Michigan (-8.5) [+260 & -330] {O/U 69.5}
One thing I like about funny week 1 results is that they can cause some weird line ripple effects that, while diminishing over time, don't really go away until the end of the season because the public can't quite get that huge upset fully out of their minds. I think this is the case here based on my analytics.
Prediction: Georgia State 10 Western Michigan 42 Western Michigan to cover -8.5
4. TCU (-2.5) @ Purdue [-145 +125] {O/U 51.5]
This is one of those games that you initially look at and say "pass" until you start forgetting all of your pre-conceived notions from the past on these two teams and just evaluate them in the moment. My numbers say the line is about right, but I'm looking at the total here. I think it's low.
Prediction: TCU 38 Purdue 42 OVER 51.5
5. Hawai'i @ Washington (-21.5) [+1000 & -2000] {O/U 58.5}
Another case where I hate the number, although there could be some Hawai'i value there, and focus instead on the number. Yes, Washington has a good defense but no one has fully stopped the Rainbow Warrior's Run N' Shoot yet. Love the Over here.
Prediction: Hawai'i 28 Washington 42 OVER 58.5
Again, there are no marquee games this weekend, unless you want to factor in El Assico, which I do, and the pre-game lines are slim pickens. That said, stay alert, because there might be in game opportunities materialize, especially on the numbers.
Good luck however you play.
Thursday, September 5, 2019
College Football: The Week 2 FIVE
"One is the loneliest number that I've ever seen"
1 and freaking 4, that's my record from week one. I had some good picks that went wrong (Oregon) some bad picks (Fresno State and Louisiana Tech) and one replacement that I wish I could have back (eff you FIU). Thank goodness for the Holy War.
But, this is a new week and we have a new parcel of selections that you should probably ignore.
So, without further ado.....
The Week 2 FIVE:
1. Rutgers @ Iowa (-20) [+950 & -1800] {O/U 49.5}
Crunching the numbers I think that Iowa is a much, much better team than Rutgers here. Especially at home. Yes, I know they struggled in week one but a LOT of teams struggle in week one. I expect Iowa to score early and often and to cover this number fairly easily.
Prediction: Rutgers 10 Iowa 45 (Iowa to COVER -20)
2. Army @ Michigan (-22) [+1000 & -2000] {O/U 47.5}
In a first for me I'm putting my beloved Wolverines in the FIVE, AND I'm picking against them. I was not impressed with what I saw last week against MTSU. Of course, Army wasn't that impressive either but I think the triple option is going to give Big Blue's defense fits. I think Michigan wins, but I think it takes many bourbons (on my part) before they get there.
Prediction: Army 21 Michigan 35 (Army to COVER +22)
3. Coastal Carolina @ Kansas (-7.5) [+250 & -300] {O/U 54.5}
I will admit to getting a little nervous when putting a game between two not very good teams in my FIVE, but I think this one is CLOSE, coming down to a FG at the end. Les Miles goes an ugly 2-0.
Prediction: Coastal Carolina 14 Kansas 17 (Coastal Carolina to COVER -7.5)
4. Eastern Michigan @ Kentucky (-15) [+500 & -700] {O/U 53.5}
Death, taxes and Eastern Michigan keeping it close. This team might not win a ton, but they're always in a dogfight, and there's evidence that Kentucky and most of the SEC East might be gawd-awful this year.
Prediction: Eastern Michigan 17 Kentucky 20 (EMU to COVER -15)
5. Arkansas State @ UNLV (-1.5) [+105 & -125] {O/U 62.5}
My numbers have Arkansas State as the better team, even taking into consideration the HFA of UNLV (which I rank as smaller than the average). In other games I'm calling for covers, in this game I'm calling the mild upset.
Prediction: Arkansas State 24 UNLV 20 (Arkansas State to WIN on the ML)
College football takes off Thursday to give the Stage to the NFL. OK, whatever, but they come back with a pretty solid game in Marshall at Boise State on Friday, before the ONE THAT EVERYONE IS WAITING FOR (OK, not everyone) when Texas aTm goes to face Clemson, IN Death Valley. Then there's the night cap LSU at Texas, and remember when Stanford at USC used to mean something? It's the battle of the backup QBs now.
As is usual you're going to find some gems sprinkled among the diamond games. The fun of college football is that they could be games where you least expect them.
Good luck this week, have fun watching the games.
1 and freaking 4, that's my record from week one. I had some good picks that went wrong (Oregon) some bad picks (Fresno State and Louisiana Tech) and one replacement that I wish I could have back (eff you FIU). Thank goodness for the Holy War.
But, this is a new week and we have a new parcel of selections that you should probably ignore.
So, without further ado.....
The Week 2 FIVE:
1. Rutgers @ Iowa (-20) [+950 & -1800] {O/U 49.5}
Crunching the numbers I think that Iowa is a much, much better team than Rutgers here. Especially at home. Yes, I know they struggled in week one but a LOT of teams struggle in week one. I expect Iowa to score early and often and to cover this number fairly easily.
Prediction: Rutgers 10 Iowa 45 (Iowa to COVER -20)
2. Army @ Michigan (-22) [+1000 & -2000] {O/U 47.5}
In a first for me I'm putting my beloved Wolverines in the FIVE, AND I'm picking against them. I was not impressed with what I saw last week against MTSU. Of course, Army wasn't that impressive either but I think the triple option is going to give Big Blue's defense fits. I think Michigan wins, but I think it takes many bourbons (on my part) before they get there.
Prediction: Army 21 Michigan 35 (Army to COVER +22)
3. Coastal Carolina @ Kansas (-7.5) [+250 & -300] {O/U 54.5}
I will admit to getting a little nervous when putting a game between two not very good teams in my FIVE, but I think this one is CLOSE, coming down to a FG at the end. Les Miles goes an ugly 2-0.
Prediction: Coastal Carolina 14 Kansas 17 (Coastal Carolina to COVER -7.5)
4. Eastern Michigan @ Kentucky (-15) [+500 & -700] {O/U 53.5}
Death, taxes and Eastern Michigan keeping it close. This team might not win a ton, but they're always in a dogfight, and there's evidence that Kentucky and most of the SEC East might be gawd-awful this year.
Prediction: Eastern Michigan 17 Kentucky 20 (EMU to COVER -15)
5. Arkansas State @ UNLV (-1.5) [+105 & -125] {O/U 62.5}
My numbers have Arkansas State as the better team, even taking into consideration the HFA of UNLV (which I rank as smaller than the average). In other games I'm calling for covers, in this game I'm calling the mild upset.
Prediction: Arkansas State 24 UNLV 20 (Arkansas State to WIN on the ML)
College football takes off Thursday to give the Stage to the NFL. OK, whatever, but they come back with a pretty solid game in Marshall at Boise State on Friday, before the ONE THAT EVERYONE IS WAITING FOR (OK, not everyone) when Texas aTm goes to face Clemson, IN Death Valley. Then there's the night cap LSU at Texas, and remember when Stanford at USC used to mean something? It's the battle of the backup QBs now.
As is usual you're going to find some gems sprinkled among the diamond games. The fun of college football is that they could be games where you least expect them.
Good luck this week, have fun watching the games.
Tuesday, September 3, 2019
One thought on the Texans mess.
For a long time now I've used the hashtag #Bad[Insert thing here] as a general comment on all things that are stupid, silly or just plain awful. A lot of my Twitter tagging of #BadSports content has been in relation to the Texans.
But I haven't used that in response to the trades that went down over the weekend because it just seems so obvious that we're dealing with a #BadSports situation here.
Two trades, both unbalanced in the favor of the other team. You got too little back for Clowney and gave up too much for Tunsil and Stills. What is the potential of TWO first round draft picks?
How about JJ Watt and DeAndre Hopkins?
OK, that's an extreme example but still, if there's one thing the Texans have done a pretty good job of as a franchise it's hitting on first round picks. It's the rest of the rounds in the draft where they've struggled, which is why their roster is a wreck outside of a few key stars.
Still, getting Tunsil on-board does, finally, provide Watson with some protection, but there are four other positions on that offensive line and it's not very clear that any of the people manning them is going to be all that great. Tunsil will help, and it's much needed help, but he really only makes the offense marginally better while on defense you've gotten significantly worse.
Remember the vaunted pass-rush that was supposed to help a woeful secondary? Yeah, that narrative pretty much got blown out of the water. JJ Watt is great, but no man is an island and he needs help, especially when you consider that now all of the double teams that Clowney absorbed are going to be redistributed to #99.
Who else on this defense is worthy of a double-team?
The line from the team is that they're worried about this year and that they'll worry about the dearth of draft picks after the season, a line that's been parroted by aging, increasingly less insightful, Houston Chronicle columnist John McClain.
You might really be worried about it when you're trying to find a new GM, who looks at your upcoming draft equity and says "Thanks, but no thanks"
Still, and this is the truth, if the Texans win this season, and make a decent run in the playoffs, all will probably be forgiven. One thing this does ensure is that Texans fans, who seem content on supporting one of the worst franchises in football, will be there in droves for the home opener, hearts full of love and minds full of optimism for the boys in deep steel blue (or whatever the heck they call their colors).
If they lose however, all bets are off.
But I haven't used that in response to the trades that went down over the weekend because it just seems so obvious that we're dealing with a #BadSports situation here.
Two trades, both unbalanced in the favor of the other team. You got too little back for Clowney and gave up too much for Tunsil and Stills. What is the potential of TWO first round draft picks?
How about JJ Watt and DeAndre Hopkins?
OK, that's an extreme example but still, if there's one thing the Texans have done a pretty good job of as a franchise it's hitting on first round picks. It's the rest of the rounds in the draft where they've struggled, which is why their roster is a wreck outside of a few key stars.
Still, getting Tunsil on-board does, finally, provide Watson with some protection, but there are four other positions on that offensive line and it's not very clear that any of the people manning them is going to be all that great. Tunsil will help, and it's much needed help, but he really only makes the offense marginally better while on defense you've gotten significantly worse.
Remember the vaunted pass-rush that was supposed to help a woeful secondary? Yeah, that narrative pretty much got blown out of the water. JJ Watt is great, but no man is an island and he needs help, especially when you consider that now all of the double teams that Clowney absorbed are going to be redistributed to #99.
Who else on this defense is worthy of a double-team?
The line from the team is that they're worried about this year and that they'll worry about the dearth of draft picks after the season, a line that's been parroted by aging, increasingly less insightful, Houston Chronicle columnist John McClain.
You might really be worried about it when you're trying to find a new GM, who looks at your upcoming draft equity and says "Thanks, but no thanks"
Still, and this is the truth, if the Texans win this season, and make a decent run in the playoffs, all will probably be forgiven. One thing this does ensure is that Texans fans, who seem content on supporting one of the worst franchises in football, will be there in droves for the home opener, hearts full of love and minds full of optimism for the boys in deep steel blue (or whatever the heck they call their colors).
If they lose however, all bets are off.
The Week One FIVE recap: Paaaiiin.
That was not the start we were looking for.
But, a start it was, a 1-4 start, which would have been 2-3 had I not gotten cold feet and scratched out Boise State, replacing it with FIU who I honestly thought would be better. Instead, I was on the wrong side of an ass-whuppin.
Still, it's a long season and the game is to have a positive ROI over the year, not just one week.
I started off strong in the Holy War, thought I had it nailed with Oregon, and then well...it just wasn't pretty.
Kudos to UT-Austin for being much better than I thought they would be, at least against La Tech, and to USC for actually looking competent. I seem to do this every year, weigh down my Week 1 FIVE with predictions of bold upsets, putting myself in a hole looking up. But, I've come back before and it only takes one good week to get right back on the beam.
Some interesting football and gaming notes this year:
Circa Sports Book has dedicated themselves to being the first poster on college football lines this year. In fact, they posted the week 2 lines on Sunday morning, and have already seen significant movement. Between them, South Point and the Superbook it's refreshing to see actual bookmaking still exists in Las Vegas. Post the lines, take the bets, move the lines accordingly. Love it and I know where all of my sports wagering dollars are going in the future.
Currently Michigan is sitting as a 23 point favorite over Army. I have NEVER listed Michigan in my FIVE, nor have I ever placed a live bet on them. That might change this week and it could be me placing a bet AGAINST my favorite team. I typically pull the lines for the FIVE on Wednesday, so we'll see how it moves.
I am not yet in football-watching season shape. Saturday night I petered out just after halftime of the USC/Fresno State game, marking the first Saturday in quite a while that I didn't stay up to watch the last game.
Finally, as a (soon to be former) U-Verse customer, I'm now in a world minus the Pac-12 Network, the ACC Network, and NFL Network. As a fan of football this is untenable and I'm probably going to be switching over to streaming before the season is out.
Next week is coming soon, good luck handicapping.
But, a start it was, a 1-4 start, which would have been 2-3 had I not gotten cold feet and scratched out Boise State, replacing it with FIU who I honestly thought would be better. Instead, I was on the wrong side of an ass-whuppin.
Still, it's a long season and the game is to have a positive ROI over the year, not just one week.
I started off strong in the Holy War, thought I had it nailed with Oregon, and then well...it just wasn't pretty.
Kudos to UT-Austin for being much better than I thought they would be, at least against La Tech, and to USC for actually looking competent. I seem to do this every year, weigh down my Week 1 FIVE with predictions of bold upsets, putting myself in a hole looking up. But, I've come back before and it only takes one good week to get right back on the beam.
Some interesting football and gaming notes this year:
Circa Sports Book has dedicated themselves to being the first poster on college football lines this year. In fact, they posted the week 2 lines on Sunday morning, and have already seen significant movement. Between them, South Point and the Superbook it's refreshing to see actual bookmaking still exists in Las Vegas. Post the lines, take the bets, move the lines accordingly. Love it and I know where all of my sports wagering dollars are going in the future.
Currently Michigan is sitting as a 23 point favorite over Army. I have NEVER listed Michigan in my FIVE, nor have I ever placed a live bet on them. That might change this week and it could be me placing a bet AGAINST my favorite team. I typically pull the lines for the FIVE on Wednesday, so we'll see how it moves.
I am not yet in football-watching season shape. Saturday night I petered out just after halftime of the USC/Fresno State game, marking the first Saturday in quite a while that I didn't stay up to watch the last game.
Finally, as a (soon to be former) U-Verse customer, I'm now in a world minus the Pac-12 Network, the ACC Network, and NFL Network. As a fan of football this is untenable and I'm probably going to be switching over to streaming before the season is out.
Next week is coming soon, good luck handicapping.
Monday, August 26, 2019
College Football 2019: You are Looking Live At the Week One FIVE
And....we're back.
Yes, I took a hiatus after the Belmont and have had a good, productive Summer season just kind of beating around the sports bushes, and not blogging much at all or anything of the sort. I just returned from a Vegas trip and I'm refreshed and ready to attack the 2019 college football season head-on.
I'm ready, and willing, to throw out predictions (again) for your amusement, and entertainment.
We begin this version of the FIVE with the usual disclaimer(s)....
1. This is NOT a listing of my REAL LIFE bets. Nor is it meant to be construed as any offer that I'm making as to the worthiness of certain bets.
2. These are predictions, they're fun, and I enjoy analyzing the games. I will be attempting to track results in real time on Capped In, but just because a game is in my FIVE doesn't mean that I actually have action on it. In many (most) cases, I will not have anything at stake in these games.
3. If you're looking to a free gambling blog authored by an accountant for your betting advice please, go GET HELP before it's too late for you.
My selections are worth EXACTLY what you paid for them.
So, without further ado.......The Week 1 FIVE
1. Utah (-5) @ BYU [-200 & +175] {O/U 60}
The big question in this game is whether or not you believe that Utah is worthy of all the hype. This is the Holy War and it can get testy, and it can be an amazing game. I think Utah is the real deal this year and a team that could find themselves in the Pac-12 Championship game. But I still think BYU keeps it close
Prediction: UTAH 27 BYU 10. [Utah to cover -5 and the UNDER]
2. Fresno State (+13.5) @ USC (-13.5) [+430 & -560] {O/U 53}
I think it's going to be very easy for sharp bettors to fade USC this year. The team is coming off a disastrous 5-7 campaign and there's probably no coach on a hotter seat than Clay Helton. But I don't think anyone expects it to start off as poorly as I think it might. USC is trying to become West Coast Texas Tech without an offensive line. Jeff Tedford's defensive front 7 at Fresno State is very, very good. USC is in trouble here, big trouble.
Prediction: Fresno State 24 USC 14. [Fresno State to WIN on the ML]
3. Boise State (+5.5) @ Florida State (-5.5) [+185 & -220] {O/U 53.5}
Boise State tries to make another run at being the best Group of Five team in the country only to find themselves outraged and flustered by the system when they get overlooked and ignored by the CFP committee come selection time. While Willie Taggart is catching a LOT of heat for the Seminole's woes I don't think there's ever been a full understanding surrounding just how dysfunctional of a mess Jimbo Fischer left behind.
Prediction: Boise State 38 Florida State 24 [Boise State to WIN on the ML]
3. Florida International (+3) @Tulane (-3) [+130 & -150] {O/U 58}
My analytics have FIU as the slightly better team even AFTER the HFA is taken into consideration. Because of this I'm backing a rare C-USA team over an AAC side this game. Normally I'd have stuck with Boise State and Florida State but I just can't keep that one up after all of the changes to the game. This game was the first one out, now it's the last one in.
Prediction: FIU 27 Tulane 24 [FIU to WIN on the ML]
4. Oregon (+3.5) @ Auburn (-3.5) [+140 & -160] {O/U 56}
I always get nervous when thinking about pulling the trigger on a PAC-12 team beating almost any other power conference team, especially a good one like Auburn. But I just think Duck head coach Mario Cristobal is putting together something really good in Eugene and this year could be the one that it all comes together.
Prediction: Oregon 24 Auburn 21 [Oregon to WIN on the ML]
5. Louisiana Tech (+20.5) @ Texas (-20.5) [+800 & -1450] {O/U 55}
This line opened at -18 and has been flying toward UT-Austin ever since then. As a matter of fact, WERE I going to bet this I'd probably wait until it went to 21 or (even better) 21.5. I think it will get there. Either way I'll update the lines prior to game time on this game because I think the number is that important. Do I think La Tech has a real chance to upset the Longhorns? No, but I do think their defense (especially the DBs) keep it closer than everyone seems to think.
Prediction: La Tech 24 UT-Austin: 30 [La Tech to Cover +20.5)
I realize that I've picked a ton of dogs, but that's what the FIVE is really for, massive upsets for the most part and a few favorites that I think are undervalued. Here are some other games I've considered and the one game where I have a rooting interest.
Alternate 1: UCLA +3 @ Cincinnati -3 [+135 & -155] {O/U 60} - We'll see what UCLA is bringing to the table this year. I think Chip Kelley's team is going to be much better than everyone thinks. I wouldn't be surprised to see them pull the (mild) upset here.
Alternate 2: Houston +20.5 @ OU -20.5 [+1100 & -2800] {O/U 82.5} - The first game of the Dana Holgerson era is a rough one. I think Houston has the athletes to keep is closer than 3 touchdowns, but I'm not willing to put actual money on it.
And, finally.....
Middle Tennessee State University +33.5 @ Michigan -33.5 [+2200 & -12050] {O/U 53.5} - I think you have to be drinking a little Michigan kool-aid to find this number in this game, but I've been accused (rightfully) of enjoying a big ol' glass of Big Blue kool-aid in the past and this year is probably no better. GO BLUE!!!
Good luck however you play and enjoy watching the first full week of college football!!!
Yes, I took a hiatus after the Belmont and have had a good, productive Summer season just kind of beating around the sports bushes, and not blogging much at all or anything of the sort. I just returned from a Vegas trip and I'm refreshed and ready to attack the 2019 college football season head-on.
I'm ready, and willing, to throw out predictions (again) for your amusement, and entertainment.
We begin this version of the FIVE with the usual disclaimer(s)....
1. This is NOT a listing of my REAL LIFE bets. Nor is it meant to be construed as any offer that I'm making as to the worthiness of certain bets.
2. These are predictions, they're fun, and I enjoy analyzing the games. I will be attempting to track results in real time on Capped In, but just because a game is in my FIVE doesn't mean that I actually have action on it. In many (most) cases, I will not have anything at stake in these games.
3. If you're looking to a free gambling blog authored by an accountant for your betting advice please, go GET HELP before it's too late for you.
My selections are worth EXACTLY what you paid for them.
So, without further ado.......The Week 1 FIVE
1. Utah (-5) @ BYU [-200 & +175] {O/U 60}
The big question in this game is whether or not you believe that Utah is worthy of all the hype. This is the Holy War and it can get testy, and it can be an amazing game. I think Utah is the real deal this year and a team that could find themselves in the Pac-12 Championship game. But I still think BYU keeps it close
Prediction: UTAH 27 BYU 10. [Utah to cover -5 and the UNDER]
2. Fresno State (+13.5) @ USC (-13.5) [+430 & -560] {O/U 53}
I think it's going to be very easy for sharp bettors to fade USC this year. The team is coming off a disastrous 5-7 campaign and there's probably no coach on a hotter seat than Clay Helton. But I don't think anyone expects it to start off as poorly as I think it might. USC is trying to become West Coast Texas Tech without an offensive line. Jeff Tedford's defensive front 7 at Fresno State is very, very good. USC is in trouble here, big trouble.
Prediction: Fresno State 24 USC 14. [Fresno State to WIN on the ML]
Boise State tries to make another run at being the best Group of Five team in the country only to find themselves outraged and flustered by the system when they get overlooked and ignored by the CFP committee come selection time. While Willie Taggart is catching a LOT of heat for the Seminole's woes I don't think there's ever been a full understanding surrounding just how dysfunctional of a mess Jimbo Fischer left behind.
3. Florida International (+3) @Tulane (-3) [+130 & -150] {O/U 58}
My analytics have FIU as the slightly better team even AFTER the HFA is taken into consideration. Because of this I'm backing a rare C-USA team over an AAC side this game. Normally I'd have stuck with Boise State and Florida State but I just can't keep that one up after all of the changes to the game. This game was the first one out, now it's the last one in.
Prediction: FIU 27 Tulane 24 [FIU to WIN on the ML]
4. Oregon (+3.5) @ Auburn (-3.5) [+140 & -160] {O/U 56}
I always get nervous when thinking about pulling the trigger on a PAC-12 team beating almost any other power conference team, especially a good one like Auburn. But I just think Duck head coach Mario Cristobal is putting together something really good in Eugene and this year could be the one that it all comes together.
Prediction: Oregon 24 Auburn 21 [Oregon to WIN on the ML]
5. Louisiana Tech (+20.5) @ Texas (-20.5) [+800 & -1450] {O/U 55}
This line opened at -18 and has been flying toward UT-Austin ever since then. As a matter of fact, WERE I going to bet this I'd probably wait until it went to 21 or (even better) 21.5. I think it will get there. Either way I'll update the lines prior to game time on this game because I think the number is that important. Do I think La Tech has a real chance to upset the Longhorns? No, but I do think their defense (especially the DBs) keep it closer than everyone seems to think.
Prediction: La Tech 24 UT-Austin: 30 [La Tech to Cover +20.5)
I realize that I've picked a ton of dogs, but that's what the FIVE is really for, massive upsets for the most part and a few favorites that I think are undervalued. Here are some other games I've considered and the one game where I have a rooting interest.
Alternate 1: UCLA +3 @ Cincinnati -3 [+135 & -155] {O/U 60} - We'll see what UCLA is bringing to the table this year. I think Chip Kelley's team is going to be much better than everyone thinks. I wouldn't be surprised to see them pull the (mild) upset here.
Alternate 2: Houston +20.5 @ OU -20.5 [+1100 & -2800] {O/U 82.5} - The first game of the Dana Holgerson era is a rough one. I think Houston has the athletes to keep is closer than 3 touchdowns, but I'm not willing to put actual money on it.
And, finally.....
Middle Tennessee State University +33.5 @ Michigan -33.5 [+2200 & -12050] {O/U 53.5} - I think you have to be drinking a little Michigan kool-aid to find this number in this game, but I've been accused (rightfully) of enjoying a big ol' glass of Big Blue kool-aid in the past and this year is probably no better. GO BLUE!!!
Good luck however you play and enjoy watching the first full week of college football!!!
Thursday, June 6, 2019
2019 Belmont DAY: My betting strategy for the 'other' races.
The 2019 race card on Belmont Day at...well....Belmont is HUGE. No fewer than 10 graded stakes races, all of which could anchor their own day. Unfortunately, that's not where horse racing is right now (more on that later) so instead of getting them all featured they're all going to run in the shadow of the Third (and most gimmicky) leg of the Triple Crown, which means that many fine races are going to go overlooked.
Even I'm not going to spend the time (TBH, I don't have the time) to break down all 10 races, instead I'm going to provide you with my betting strategy for the day here.
After skipping races 1 & 2 I'm going to start dabbling in the 3rd, hoping to catch some prices to build the bank-roll for the races in the heart of the card.
Race 3: $150,000 Easy Goer Stakes. I expect most of the money to be wagered on the 6 -Alwaysmining and the 4 - Outshine. I'm going to take a different tack and look for somewhat of a price on the 2 - Dream Maker. Trained by Mark Casse and ridden by Julian Leparoux I think this horse has a real chance to pull an upset here. I'm hoping he goes off around 10/1 Bet: $5 Win - 2
Race 4: $700,000 Just a Game Stakes. Almost all of the money is going to be placed on the 4 - Rushing Fall, but I'm going to look toward a different Chad Brown horse the 6 - Environs. I typically like European turf horses better than I do their American counterparts and I'm still getting the best American turf trainer in the business, at a MUCH better price. Bet: $5 Win - 6
Race 5: $700,000 Ogden Phipps Stakes On paper this is a two horse race between the 1 - Come Dancing and the 2 - Midnight Bisou. I cannot really argue with this but I like the 5 - Mopotism to come in 3rd at a long price which could let the Trifecta pay nicely. At least we hope. Bet: $2 Tri 2-1-5
Race 6: $400,000 Jaipur Stakes. I love turf sprint races, and I love when I can catch a Wesley Ward horse at a price in them. The 8 - World of Trouble is going to be the overwhelming favorite here but I'm going to play against him with two horses, the 1 - Undrafted and the 7 - Belvior Bay. My hope is to catch lightning in a bottle. Bet: $5 Win 1 and $5 Win 7
Race 7: $700,000 Acorn Stakes. The traditional 3rd leg of the Filly Triple Crown isn't really a thing any more, but this is a good race with some good horses from which I really like the 1 - Serengeti Empress and the 3 - Cookie Dough. I'm going to hope for a speed dual and that my horses pick up the pieces. Bet: $5 Win - 1 and $5 Win 3
Race 8 - 11:
8: $400,000 Woody Stephens
9: $1,200,000 Metropolitan Mile
10: $1,000,000 Manhattan
11: $1,500,000 Belmont Stakes
I'm grouping all of these races together because, outside of my Belmont wagers that I've mentioned before, I'm probably ONLY going to play the All-Stakes Pick 4.
My choices are as follows:
Race 8: 2-3-4-9
Race 9: 2-3-7
Race 10: 8
Race 11: 8-9-10
$18.00 total
It's possible that, in the Met Mile I'll throw a $5 win bet at the 3 - Mitole, but that depends an awful lot on the post-time odds. Outside of that the plays are odds dependent, so it will probably be the above pick 4 and sit and hope that Bricks and Morter is all that I think he is.
Good luck to you however you bet and enjoy the races.
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